Adam Posen @AdamPosen Twitter profile

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@_o__o_l

Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

I want to profess my admiration for the report today by @bankofengland Dep Gov Jon Cunliffe on the real causes of the market disruption for UK pensions and gilts Speaking truth to power is a duty for an independent central bank. Well done!

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@AdamPosen

1 year

Thanks @BrexitBin for the shout out In the full version of this talk from Summer 2017, we ended up forecasting precisely what is happening now (sadly but inevitably) to the UK auto industry.

Brexit Bin 🇪🇺🇬🇧🇩🇪🕊🇺🇦 #BrexitHasFailed

@BrexitBin

1 year

In case you missed it ... Back at the start of Brexit, renowned economist @AdamPosen set out a very fair and balanced assessment of how Brexit would negatively affect our economy. Looking back at it, every word of what he said came true. #BrexitHasFailed

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

For the City of London, on the news about Amsterdam overtaking, and the concerns of BOE on regulatory equivalence with the EU, I refer you back to what I said in 2017 would be the impact of Brexit on UK financial services. (Thanks @Femi_Sorry )

Femi

@Femi_Sorry

3 years

Hey Brexiteers, Don't worry about the news about Amsterdam and the City of London. Top economists like @AdamPosen definitely didn't warn you this would happen in 2017. Just keep believing in Britain. It'll be fine!

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

11 months

The UK inflation data is not a surprise to me. For over a year, I have warned that the forecasts of declining inflation were delusional, given what Brexit did to labor mismatch and food, and what bad governance did to credibility (to the policy regime overall, not specifically…

Peterson Institute

@PIIE

11 months

In comparison to the US & eurozone, @AdamPosen says the UK is suffering the additional problems of Brexit, a loss of credibility of economic governance, & the legacy of under-investment in public health & transport services. “It’s not good."

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

10 months

UK should move to a much softer Brexit as quickly as possible on a unilateral basis, start looking more like Norway and Switzerland, for the sake of the British people and the economy. That means not seeking to distance from EU standards. Thanks @JontyBloombiz @TheNewEuropean …

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

"We believe #Brexit is the primary driver of the high & widening inflation differential between the UK & its European peers," argue @LucasRengifoKel and I Brexit amplified the inflationary impact of a simultaneous common shock. #PIIECharts

Brexit is driving inflation higher in the UK than its European peers after identical supply shocks

Many high-income economies are suffering 40-year highs in inflation. They all have faced the same series of major supply shocks to their economies simultaneously: reopening of the economy after the...

www.piie.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

@Sime0nStylites As I said #Brexit is a trade war UK declared on itself. The British economy isn't becoming HK or Singapore of the 70s, it is becoming the UK of the 70's again @Simon_Nixon @thetimes

Dr Adam Posen: The Macroeconomic Impact of Trade Wars (and Brexit...

Dr Adam Posen delivers the Annual Lecture at the King’s Business School Centre for Data Analytics for Finance and Macroeconomics | 14 March 2019 | What does ...

www.youtube.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

9 months

My new analysis @ForeignAffairs Why China's slowdown is economic long COVID and will persist, and Why that means US strategy should shift to an open door for exiting Chinese assets, not containment

The End of China’s Economic Miracle

Beijing’s struggles could be an opportunity for Washington.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

As no deal #Brexit approaches, please remember Investment, standards, and flow of ideas and people are more important than trade in stuff Even a deal at this point is either a Deal in Name Only for those purposes, or is BINO, there's no in between @Femi_Sorry @jdportes

Femi

@Femi_Sorry

4 years

This is the most chilling explanation of what Brexit will do to the UK economy after December. By @AdamPosen , President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. #ThisIsWhatYouVotedFor

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

Also credit to the @CommonsTreasury for commissioning in rapid time a report which would be data based, public, and unafraid. Good governance leads to better policies.

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

The full report is here @bankofengland

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

On Brexit, a thin deal is better than none - but that's like saying I had an amputation as scheduled, and turns out there was no post-op infection. So, could've been worse, but still not good. The UK will survive, but its people will have to work harder than they should to thrive

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

New research finds that a modest easing of tariffs could lower inflation by 1.3 points via @WSJOpinion

Opinion | Cut Tariffs to Help Inflation and Ukraine

A modest easing of border taxes could lower inflation by 1.3 points.

www.wsj.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

Given the revival in the German press of the myth that hyperinflation led to Nazism, when it was austerity that did, I re-post my 2013 Kurt Viermitz Lecture @AmericanAcademy Berlin: Exorcising Ghosts of Inflation and Unification from German Economic Policy

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

11 months

It is time for the UK to think like an emerging market My new take @FT

It is time for the UK to think like an emerging market

For the situation to improve, policymakers must act as if they are under a stabilisation programme

www.ft.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

4 years

I gave the talk in 2017. The video received 1.3 million plus views that year. Sadly, didn't make enough difference then either. All I can do is try to persuade, like @Femi_Sorry does.

Parviz Dabir-Alai (Threads: @Prof.ParvizDabirAlai)

@ProfDabirAlai

4 years

@Femi_Sorry @AdamPosen Excellent short analysis, but also quite depressing given that the message (in late 2020) has zero impact on Britain's immediate future and its relationship with the EU.

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

5 years

My warning - 17 months ago - that Trump's trade war could be his economic Afghanistan: costly, fruitless, and open-ended

An ill-advised trade war could turn out to be Trump's Afghanistan

Costly, fruitless and open-ended, Trump could be starting something he won't be able to finish

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

Rubles for oil is simply a gambit by Putin ahead of EUCO/Biden to split the alliance. If GER and ITL play along, sanctions alliance erodes greatly. If GER/ITL (are pressured to) decline, later on the econ costs of oil embargo get resented when Putin offered an out. [1/4]

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

BOE MPC will have to briefly give Nr. 11 time to reverse folly. I presume HMT will make some kind of useless attempt to intervene in fx markets ahead of Monday Asia open. But I would expect - and encourage - the Governor/MPC to say publicly by mid-week that if GBP down, rates up.

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

4 years

Good right stuff from @Femi_Sorry on making the poppy holy and missing the point. Same with US flag pins here. Brave of him. Sorry it takes bravery in this world.

Jeremy Vine On 5

@JeremyVineOn5

4 years

"Things like the poppy are seen as these moral absolutes that cannot be questioned under any circumstances... why is the same not the case for racial equality?" Watch the full poppy debate between @Femi_Sorry and @TheCaroleMalone here:

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

@TheStalwart @MichaelRStrain Back to where it was with how much distortionary BOE intervention, higher interest rates, pension funds wrecked, mortgages disrupted? Cost 'em and arm and a leg to get back to here. Don't be disingenuous.

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

9 months

Britain after Brexit: Mugged by Economic Reality

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

Great thread on economics of the rise of the Nazis in Germany by @heimbergecon It was austerity and deflation, not hyperinflation, which brought the Nazis support Yet many educated Germans, and econ pundits in particular, seem to insist on the opposite, amd apply that to today

Philipp Heimberger

@heimbergecon

3 years

One of Germany’s most prominent economists, Hans-Werner Sinn, warns of hyperinflation; he links it directly to Hitler's rise to power. A distortion of history: the rise of the Nazis was preceded by deflation, exacerbated by fiscal austerity. Thread /1

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

Chair Powell's speech was solid, included an important 5-part assessment of when to worry about inflation, and gave more attention to broader labor market goals than many recent FOMC speakers (good!). BUT there are still significant problems with what he and FOMC say Thread 🧵

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

5 years

Straight up non-humble brag. Today, @PIIE won the Oscars of think tanks - @prospect_uk #ThinkTank2019 thank you - in our field for the 4th year in a row. I am so proud of our whole team delivering high quality and policy relevant work consistently. Thank you to everyone!

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

My twitter account has been restored!! Please remember me! Thank you for remaining followers. I have missed you all so much! Fascinating tweets to come @PIIE @PIIE_Pressroom

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

5 years

@D_Blanchflower I'm also an economist, and I, too, think there will be a UK recession soon.

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

Despite Germany's persistent trade surpluses, manufacturing employment has fallen in its industrial hub more than in Ohio. There is no link between trade deficits and manufacturing jobs (or jobs in general). via @PIIE

Despite Germany's trade surplus, manufacturing employment share of total employment has fallen in...

Large trade deficits are often blamed for the protracted decline in manufacturing employment in the United States. Critics claim cheap imports from low-wage countries erode the competitiveness of US...

www.piie.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

9 months

I must correct an error in my article @ForeignAffairs . In four places I refer to savings mistakenly, when I am actually discussing household bank deposits. The argument still holds, if anything is stronger, but I apologize. [1/n] via @ForeignAffairs

The End of China’s Economic Miracle

Beijing’s struggles could be an opportunity for Washington.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

The UK and the global economy after Brexit Some revealing charts about a stark reality Video discussion to follow of the situation and of what to do to make 'Global Britain' real and beneficial via @PIIE @UKandEU

The UK and the global economy after Brexit

Brexit has reduced UK trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, and immigration growth. New border frictions and higher transport costs pose new barriers to trade, and FDI inflows are...

www.piie.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

4 years

Fed Thread - What matters from what @federalreserve Chair Powell did and did not say today @KansasCityFed 1) The process of doing the review was as important as the results of the review The trust bought in from Congress and interested public made room for current policies (1/n)

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

Prime Minister Abe was a leader of historic significance His vision for and successful implementation of CPTPP, Womenomics, of reforms including of agriculture to make those work, and reflation made Japan and the world lastingly better To lose him this way is so unfair and awful

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

This x100. For most voters, it is NOT the actual economic conditions, even their own, that matter

Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

2 years

Lots of food for thought. But one thing is clear: Imagining that a good economy will speak for itself is fantasy 7/

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

I now am verified with a blue check and everything on Twitter! Please tell everyone to follow me (except the bots)

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

Writing a year ago #Brexit And as I said from '16 onward, Sterling was now at risk by moving UK macro halfway back to the 70s The Truss Budget takes it all the way back to '74 @ChrisGiles_ @Femi_Sorry #TimeforaUKuturn

Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

@5arcen @Femi_Sorry Thanks, but sadly #Brexit has worked out roughly as I and others expected (once we disentangle COVID impact + mismanagement) Right down to no UK-US trade deal and shortages in UK labor markets No joy in "I told you so" eh, @Femi_Sorry ?

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

This x100. Tragically.

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 months

We are so proud of @ChadBown taking on the role of Chief Economist @StateDept !! All of us @PIIE will miss him while he is on leave for public service, but we know that he will definitely serve the US public very well!

Under Secretary Jose W. Fernandez

@State_E

3 months

Pleased to announce @StateDept ’s new Chief Economist, Dr. Chad Bown, an expert on international trade and industrial policy. He’s worked tirelessly to promote transparency in trade and enforcement through research and writings. Chad is joining us from @PIIE . Welcome to E Family!

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

5 years

@ojblanchard1 Possible answer: political economy. Monetary policy is insulated from lobbying, has a simple welfare function largely agreed, and pretends not to redistribute. Fiscal policy is set thru political struggle and lobbying, is explicitly redistributive, no agreed welfare function

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

Genius #BrexitReality thread by @Femi_Sorry

Femi

@Femi_Sorry

3 years

#ExpresslyPredictedBrexit

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

4 years

This ×100 @davidfrum Official Germany's truth telling and responsibility taking for its past - supported by a majority of its citizens - is not only a moral exemplar, but shows how self scrutiny is no barrier to success @GermanAmbUSA @ACG_USA @BoschStiftung @AmericanAcademy

David Frum

@davidfrum

4 years

If Russia could tell this much truth about its past, it would be a freer country today, at peace with its neighbors. If the United States could face this much truth about its past, it would be a fairer country today, at peace with itself.

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

Yes.

Ben Chu

@BenChu_

2 years

A herculean diversification effort by Russia since 2014 - shifting financial reserves away from dollars and euros and into gold and yuan - in order to defend themselves against Western financial sanctions. But has it all been in vain?

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

4 years

Well done @federalreserve My take [Thread] @PIIE : It is great for the Fed to get out this way, both in terms of speed and putting pressure on other policymakers. They included everything they should have, pretty much. (1/n)

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

An excellent new @TheEconomist Survey on Japan by @NoahSneider is now out. Getting across the message that Japan’s economy is stronger than many realise, and the rest of the rich world can learn from them (not vice versa)

Japan’s economy is stronger than many realise

Not bad, but could be better

www.economist.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

I remember when Jo Cox MP was murdered in June 2016 for her anti-Brexit views. I thought that crime would wake up people and be a turning point in British politics. It wasn't. The failure of almost all Republican elected officials to reverse course after 1/6 is chilling.

Patrick Chovanec

@prchovanec

3 years

The fact that 1/6 wasn’t an inflection point in our politics is even darker than anything that happened on 1/6.

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

6 years

@realDonaldTrump Despite all that, there are zero Chinese cars sold in the U.S. and millions of U.S. brand cars sold in China every year - until you messed that up. US is the most advanced economy so we compete by being best not cheapest. Like Trump Hotels, right?

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

6 years

Important Withdrawing from NAFTA Would Hit 187,000 US Exporting Jobs, Mostly in Heartland Analysis and data @PIIE

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

Thank you to the many people in Japanese public life and @PIIE who gave me opportunities to contribute to policy and worked with me in our common interest in Japan's growing inclusively as it should #Abenomics #womenomics #CPTPP #fiscalstimulus @JapanEmbDC

Peterson Institute

@PIIE

3 years

It is our honor to announce the Government of Japan has bestowed the Imperial Decoration the Order of the Rising Sun, Gold Rays with Neck Ribbon upon PIIE President @AdamPosen . Read the full press release here:

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

So, serious economists, stop taking this seriously. Don't focus on what are the steps and implications of how EU members paying in rubles would work. Instead, focus on the analyses of how much less foregoing Russian energy might cost GER/ITL than feared, w/ fiscal response [4/4]

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

Watch GBP-EUR not Cable. That has long been overdue on fundamentals for a GBP depreciation. That also will be more politically and market salient as a verdict on Truss/Kwarteng 1974 fiscal policy program.

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

@Noname06401912 @Femi_Sorry @LizWebsterLD Thanks. I plan to have some comments on Brexit as it works out soon. But as you say it has - sadly in multiple senses - gone about as us 'experts' predicted.

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

5 months

Trade has increased the size of the US economy since WWII, by $2.6 trillion in 2022. This is 10% of US GDP, or $7,800 per person and $19,500 per household annually. Continuing Biden and Trump protectionist policies threatens future gains. New @PIIE policy brief [1/4]:…

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

Excellent @ChrisGiles_ analysis @FT "Britain is not alone in facing a severe energy shock, but it also has the...headwinds of a hard and harmful Brexit, a steeper post-financial crisis productivity decline than other countries and a declining workforce."

New rules are needed for a diminished UK economy

Supply conditions, wages and corporate pricing are more important than whether growth is slowing or turning negative

www.ft.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

@peterjukes Scary to have complicity of Met in the UK. The fear of police and FBI collaboration in the US has been a major reason for concern.

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

The G7 price cap on Russian oil idea confuses me. Won't India and China just buy at cap price + epsilon? Won't OPEC resent having cut price oil be bought first ahead of their own sales? How will this work?

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

4 years

THREAD of my Videos on #Brexit from the last 3 years The first one many of you watched already (thanks to @Femi_Sorry ) has the tl/dr: no economic upside, only harm. And we could see it all coming The rest offer more analysis/context, particularly my lecture @kingsbschool

Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

4 years

Okay, one last time y'all, three videos on Brexit: Posen @PIIE Discusses the Damage of #Brexit to the British Economy via @YouTube (1/3)

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

Stop it @POTUS If US blocks foreign trade or supply chains, then no COVID vaccines. Then less innovation and higher prices in general. For everyone. Same if we keep out refugees and immigrants - higher prices, fewer choices, less innovation and MORE not less corporate power

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

4 years

@Reuters It isn't a financial crisis this time. It is a real shock to labor supply (people) and to specific businesses (particularly small business). So bridge loans and stemming the panic are the easy part. It only ends when the biology allows, though.

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

4 years

This is an incredible resource of @Trade__Talks episodes - for professors and educators, for writers and reporters, for the general public. I am very proud that @PIIE has been the home to this groundbreaking and deservedly loved series. Cheers to @SoumayaKeynes @ChadBown !!

Trade Talks 🎧 Podcast

@Trade__Talks

4 years

Academic Twitter, We have updated our catalog of all 140 of our episodes, to help identify which ones might be useful for which class subject. • Need help? • Got suggestions? Also contact us via email: email @tradetalkspodcast .com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

4 years

Wall Street and Main Street are on two different planets. @foreignpolicy asked 6 experts why. I say though stocks rising now is grotesque, it reflects the grim reality that the market tracks profits, and profits track deregulation and wage weakness.

Why Are Stocks Soaring in the Middle of a Pandemic?

Wall Street and Main Street are on two different planets. We asked six leading experts why.

foreignpolicy.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

@5arcen @Femi_Sorry Thanks, but sadly #Brexit has worked out roughly as I and others expected (once we disentangle COVID impact + mismanagement) Right down to no UK-US trade deal and shortages in UK labor markets No joy in "I told you so" eh, @Femi_Sorry ?

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

11 months

@sussexbythesea4 Yes, sadly

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

11 months

This is the big one: we need to decarbonize, and we need large-scale investment to do so. How in real world policy terms do we do it? This conference @PIIE organized by @pisaniferry and myself addresses the Macroeconomics of Climate Action:

The macroeconomic implications of climate action

Climate change mitigation is bound to entail significant consequences for growth, employment, inflation, and public finances. But considerable uncertainty surrounds the channels through which...

www.piie.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

5 years

ilImportant chilling thread on the very real danger from paramilitary groups aka militias

Simon Romero

@viaSimonRomero

5 years

I was based in Latin America for over a decade before moving back to the U.S. in 2017. During that time I wrote about human rights violations by paramilitary groups – called militias, in some places – in countries including Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

This is excellent on EU membership as the real major source of Hungary's national income - even under Orban - from @davidfrum Spot on!

David Frum

@davidfrum

3 years

Orban apologists are now telling me what a great job of economic management their guy is doing. Four points of Hungary's GDP is transfers from the European Union that Orban and they despise as a woke totalitarian nightmare.

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

4 years

Something I wrote in 2014 @ftopinion on inequality which was ahead of the curve - and which sadly is only now changing. Wish I had gotten further with this message before now... The economic inequality debate avoids asking who is harmed via @financialtimes

The economic inequality debate avoids asking who is harmed

That fortune depends on race, gender or ethnicity is often ignored, writes Adam Posen

www.ft.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

4 years

This x100 @AmyEcon 15+ years ago, I decided not to play the econ "Top 5 Journals" game. I stopped reading them, focusing on papers by topic and author. I didn't do work geared to submit to them. And I have made this a non-factor in hiring and promotion @PIIE We read people's work

Amy W. Ando

@AmyEcon

4 years

Note that the “top 5” econ journals have only as much power as people in the profession grant them. If people in P&T committees just decide to judge candidates on the quality of their actual papers - which are right there for us to read - then that’s that.

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

Important - I posed a big question to @PIIE scholars: How should policy change if COVID or other pandemics are persistent or recurring? So many want to believe vaccines mean one and done. That's unrealistic and irresponsible, especially with vaccine inequality breeding VOCs (1/3)

Peterson Institute

@PIIE

3 years

Download the full PIIE Briefing here:

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

5 years

Since everyone's having a go, pls note I said in June 2016 the only outcomes possible were hard no deal Brexit, or Norway+++ (EU access without say with dues to pay). There was no intermediate deal possible. And here we are. (1/n)

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

It is bizarre that the IMF and UST have so publicly pre-emptively called out another G20 nation's domestic policy (even tho I agree that the fiscal policy mix is loony) In short, anyone know what the urgent global systemic risk is from UK folly? I don't @jdportes @Simon_Nixon

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

5 years

My point from last night: The problem about Brexit is not uncertainty about Brexit, it is Brexit... it is moving to a regime of persistent uncertainty (see below). Thanks to DAFM @KingsCollegeLon (and to @susiesymes1 for noting) Video and slides to post on Monday also @PIIE

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

7 years

This is all true: NAFTA and other trade deals have not gutted American manufacturing — full stop via @voxdotcom

NAFTA and other trade deals have not gutted American manufacturing — period

The political truthiness has been flying thick and fast on this subject for decades.

www.vox.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

And not just Amsterdam and one financial instrument

Katie Martin

@katie_martin_fx

3 years

Fresh blow for London as euro derivatives trading floods out It's almost as if there's a pattern emerging via @financialtimes

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

6 years

Nativism is a package deal including nostalgia, state domination, fear of innovation, and repeating the failures of import substitution.

Jeremy Corbyn to highlight economic 'benefit' of Brexit as he demands UK stop relying on imports...

Labour leader will say plummeting pound can help manufacturers 'build things here again that for too long have been built abroad', in speech that will prompt comparisons with Donald Trump's 'America...

www.independent.co.uk

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

7 years

Too many libertarians are too focused on economics and unconcerned w/ the institutions necessary for a free society

Liberalism in the Balance - Bleeding Heart Libertarians

What the new president has done in his first few days in office has hardly been surprising, even as it’s profoundly horrific. What has surprised me is the reaction by...

bleedingheartlibertarians.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

6 years

@EdwardGLuce Trump's real tariff motivations @EdwardGLuce also are: 3) intent to force all production of heavy old industries onshore using local inputs like coal (for stupid or corrupt reasons; 2) appealing to Trump voters thru anti-foreigner nativist hatred [2/2]

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

6 years

@GuitarMoog @econromesh Great thread on the upside down logic of Brexit

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

7 years

This BOE rate hike when British growth and wages are decelerating is what happens when a central bank faces international vulnerability 1/4

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

10 months

The persistence and even acceleration of UK inflation should not be a surprise. It should be dealt with by a stabilization plan which combines macroeconomic and structural measures, but including a commitment to monetary tightening. Enough of the ill-founded optimism.

Peterson Institute

@PIIE

10 months

The UK economy is now similar to an emerging market under pressure, meaning stabilization is the credible path forward & policymakers should act like they are under a self-imposed IMF program to put a solid floor under the situation. @AdamPosen has a plan:

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

4 years

@Reuters Recession for the rich world, given pandemic behaving, with recovery towards the end of the year. Depression for the poor parts of the world, with lost decade mounting after human health toll. Deflationary pressures and low rates for as far as the eye can see. A2 #AskReuters

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

1 month

Disinflation has stalled - as @KarenDynan pointed out yesterday @PIIE #globaleconomicprospects ahead of today's CPI release. Not a reason for panic as so many rightly note. But this is not just a blip or special factors. @tomkeene @DianeSwonk @jasonfurman

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

From Conrad’s Kurtz to Enoch Powell: Conservatism Takes a Dark Turn to the Past I value @BylineTimes and admire the contribution of @peterjukes @Hardeep_Matharu to UK public life Read this and consider subscribing (as I do)

From Conrad’s Kurtz to Enoch Powell: Conservatism Takes a Dark Turn to the Past

Under Boris Johnson’s leadership, the Conservative Party has reversed half a century of attempts at post-imperial reform and is now embarked on a campaign of 'othering' – targeting enemies within and...

bylinetimes.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

10 months

@martinrsmith @insteconomics An immigration war on itself, to follow on the trade war on itself. UK own goal again. Wrong way Britain for your economic future. This isn't due to Brexit, of course, but after you put a barrier up to EU workers, why make it harder to make up for the loss?…

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

7 months

Who Killed the Chinese Economy? I sparked a debate! @ForeignAffairs is running two disagreements with my "End of the Chinese Economic Miracle" article, and my rebuttal to their rebuttals. Free access online to the article(s) for those interested. via…

Who Killed the Chinese Economy?

Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Michael Pettis, and Adam Posen debate the contested causes of stagnation.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

The mechanics financial or economic of how this might work, how the money if paid would affect fx value of Ruble, would it go to the CBR or the war effort, etc., do not matter. They are moot. The point is Putin's pressure on the GER/ITL weak links in the alliance [2/4]

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

5 years

My latest take: Donald Trump's tariffs and threats raise chances of a US recession - how the Fed must respond Written 10 days ago, published last night, before today's tariff tantrum and Fed slander

Donald Trump's tariffs and threats raise chances of a US recession

Trade is new and dangerous terrain for the Federal Reserve

asia.nikkei.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

Back in March 2019, I gave a lecture on Brexit @KingsCollegeLon The bottom line economic results, shown in red, have come to pass. #timeforUKuturn

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

4 years

We are all statists now - with me on the macroeconomic policy aspect For @ForeignPolicy series on the world after the pandemic, 10 leading global thinkers' predictions.

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

@InequalityHKS @ojblanchard1 @rodrikdani Videos of the original presentations of the contributors to Combating Inequality available here @PIIE Thank you to @ojblanchard1 @rodrikdani for their intellectual leadership in bringing this set of scholars together for Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy

Combating Inequality: Rethinking Policies to Reduce Inequality in Advanced Economies

Read a summary and reflections of the conference by its organizers, Olivier Blanchard and Dani Rodrik.

www.piie.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

1 year

THIS is the point. Regulatory failure passed by Congress after paid lobbying by SVB and others. Good for Brainard to have called it out at the time. Thanks @heidirediker for tweeting (1/2)

Heidi Crebo-Rediker 🌻

@heidirediker

1 year

Federal Reserve Board - Statement by Governor Lael Brainard Oct 2019…

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

I am a subscriber @BylineTimes

Byline Times

@BylineTimes

3 years

Please help us get 15,000 subscribers so we can set up a research group, commission more journalists and investigate this rotten Government more. Tell friends, RT. Less than 600 to go.

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

Putinologists can better assess whether this is an error, a desperate act, or what this indicates. My guess is that this is a costless move for Putin ahead of EuCo/NATO/Biden meetings, perhaps prompted by his assessment that GER/ITL might agree to stop oil imports anyway [3/4]

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

7 years

Congrats to @pdacosta and @businessinsider ! We will miss Pedro @PIIE but I'm glad for the public that he's going back on the front lines

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

@greg_ip Thanks @greg_ip @darioperkins Yes, I argued for the BOE to look through transitory price pressures in 2010-12, and the outcome seems to have justified that stance. Is it the right template for the US now? Probably, but the Fed is taking more of a gamble now than we did then. 1/n

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

4 years

The G20 decisions this week can matter. Check out our new @PIIE e-book edited by me and Maurice Obstfeld on how international cooperation can meaningfully fight this pandemic at low or zero cost.

How the G20 can hasten recovery from COVID-19

The world's leading economic powers must cooperate more to combat the health and economic shocks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. In a new PIIE Briefing, Peterson Institute experts outline how...

www.piie.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

5 years

Or as I have been calling it, NAFTA 0.8

Peterson Institute

@PIIE

5 years

The #USMCA is a downgrade from #NAFTA , PIIE research finds. Not much actually changes, but there are new regulations and requirements that will discourage investment in the auto sector. We went under the hood of the new trade deal to investigate.

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

6 years

@EdwardGLuce I think you're wrong @EdwardGLuce . That is a side benefit for Trump, but his real tariff motivations are: 1) genuine and genuinely crazy ideological beliefs against trade; 2) foolish beliefs that other democracies will capitulate to USG trade threats; [1/2]

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

3 years

We all should know this, and Prof. Anderson documents the history very well America’s gun obsession is rooted in slavery | Carol Anderson

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

@Femi_Sorry @sophieraworth Yup. UK has wage inflation like the US, unlike the EA But had much more stable employment during COVID than US, like EA So seems like Brexit is messing up UK labour market, amplifying core inflation (ex energy) now @Femi_Sorry

Bank of England ‘duty bound’ to trigger recession to curb inflation

Ex-official says policymakers must shrink the UK economy to limit upward pressure on prices made worse by Brexit

www.theguardian.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

The underlying study of how and how much feasible trade liberalization (just reversing the Trump additions essentially) would reduce current US inflation @PIIE Hufbauer @meganrosehogan Wang

For inflation relief, the United States should look to trade liberalization

With US inflation running at 40-year high rates, the Federal Reserve is signaling more interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023. President Joseph R. Biden Jr. has also vowed to act against what he calls...

www.piie.com

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Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

2 years

On UK Inflation, to clarify, I believe Brexit is to blame for 80% of the DIFFERENCE over US/EU in the duration and level of British inflation (not for 80% of total UK inflation) As I said to the Treasury Select Committee in May

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