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Ben Chu

@BenChu_

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Economics Editor @bbcnewsnight | Twitter pic by @stan_chow I

Joined October 2010
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
27 days
📣Some personal news📣 I’ll be joining the BBC’s Verify unit as Policy & Analysis correspondent in the coming weeks & really look forward to working with their excellent team… 1/2
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
Boris Johnson asserts the UK will once again have "the fastest economic growth in the G7" by 2024. N.B. The Bank of England has just forecast UK GDP growth for that calendar year (2024) of just 0.35%
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
Despite the global Britain rhetoric, the UK has become a *smaller* international trader since Brexit. Chart shows trade flows as share of GDP - it's holding up for main EU countries, but has declined sharply for UK in recent years 👇
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
Minette Batters of the National Farmers Unions says Boris Johnson told her a year ago “I would rather die than hurt British farmers” - and now farmers are “beyond distraught” at a welfare cull of potentially upwards of 100k pigs due to a lack of butchers since Brexit #Newsnight
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
Interesting - both former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff and Ngaire Woods of the Blavatnik School of Government tell #Newsnight they don't think the Chancellor can wait until 31 October to reveal his medium term fiscal plan...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
7 months
🚨 Austerity update 🚨 "With hindsight we probably should have taken advantage [of low interest rates] and borrowed more when times were more stable...and invested more." Former HMT permanent secretary (05-16) Nicholas Macpherson on Radio 4 Analysis ...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
Asked about the UK HGV driver shortage, Michel Barnier tells @maitlis on @BBCNewsnight that the EU's "main asset" is the single market & the key part of that is freedom of movement. "The UK has to face the consequences of Brexit" #Newsnight
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
5 years
NEW: Sources at Channel ferry companies have confirmed to @BBCNewsnight that they will NOT allow any UK truck bound for the Continent to board after a no-deal Brexit without FULL new required documentation...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
10 months
OK, this @hmtreasury tweet needs a little context...🧵
@hmtreasury
HM Treasury
10 months
Analysis from the @IMFNews has found that since 2010, Real GDP in the UK has grown faster than in comparable European nations such as France, Germany, Italy or Spain. We are committed to continuing to grow the economy and provide economic opportunities for people across the UK.
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
Hadn't realised the extent to which vaccine hesitancy has been *collapsing* in many countries. In France it's fallen from 60% in January to 20% in July....(from @TheEconomist ) 👇...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
Former Bank of England deputy Governor Charlie Bean tells #Newsnight four chancellors in four months is the "sort of thing you see in failing emerging market economies...pretty shambolic"
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
*How* exactly is Rishi Sunak bringing austerity back to public services? ✂️ A thread…🧵1/
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
7 years
Will Theresa May, Boris Johnson and the rest of the Cabinet condemn this disgusting tweet and defend the Mayor of London?
@realDonaldTrump
Donald J. Trump
7 years
At least 7 dead and 48 wounded in terror attack and Mayor of London says there is "no reason to be alarmed!"
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
26 days
An important point about the PM's speech on the UK's "sick note culture". He stated: "Of those who are economically inactive, fully half say they have depression or anxiety."...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
ONS reports UK business investment fell by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2022, despite the corporation tax super-deduction being specifically designed to bring investment forward to 2021-22. Hard to find a more worrying chart for the future of the UK economy than this 👇
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
26 days
...However, the @ONS research where this 50% stat apparently comes from also stresses that the majority of those with depression, bad nerves or anxiety reported it as a *secondary* health condition rather than their main one...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
Personal news: I’m thrilled and honoured to be joining @BBCnewsnight as Economics Editor in June...
@esmewren
esmewren
3 years
I am delighted to announce @BenChu_ will be returning to @BBCNewsnight as our Economics editor starting in June. Ben, who worked on the programme back in 2019/20, returns at a crucial time for both the UK and global economy as Govts look to build back post the pandemic.
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
22 days
The Treasury is claiming that hitting the target of raising UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP in 2030 amounts to a "£75 billion increase". How do they get to this £75bn number? 🤨 Thread...🧵1/9
@hmtreasury
HM Treasury
22 days
NEWS: UK set to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030 - an increase of £75 billion. Chief Secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott visited Wellington Barracks in Westminster today to explain what this means.
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
4 months
For context, National Insurance is projected by the @OBR_UK to bring in around £176bn in 2024-25 - around a sixth of all tax revenues, money which funds around £1 in 7 of all public spending
@BBCNewsnight
BBC Newsnight
4 months
"I would love to see us get rid of National Insurance in the next year or two...and then start bringing tax down aggressively for people." Bob Seely, Conservative MP for the Isle of Wight, tells #Newsnight that his party should cut tax and spending.
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
Just how much more severe is the financial hit now facing UK households due to rising energy bills? 📈 And how big is the financial hole in household budgets the government is being urged to fill? 💰 A thread...🧵1/
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
UK government’s former top lawyer Sir Jonathan Jones tells @BBCNewsnight regarding NI Protocol that if UK unilaterally walks away from its international agreements “potentially very damaging” for UK’s reputation as a law abiding nation in the world
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
1 year
Is the Polish economy set to overtake the UK's as @Keir_Starmer argues today? I had a look at this a while ago using the IMF's GDP per head projections and the answer is basically yes...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
...speaking to people in markets the verdict is that this U-turn does NOT restore credibility to the UK public finances. "Only a new government can do that now" one analyst tells me
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
1 year
How has the UK economy *really* performed relative to other G7 economies since 2010? 📉📈🧐 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 🇯🇵 🇮🇹 🇨🇦 A chart thread 🧵...1/
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
Are the lorry queues in Dover due to #Brexit ? 🚛🚛🚛🛳️🛳️🇬🇧🇪🇺 A thread 🧵...1/
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
Thread on why Brexit has disrupted e-commerce and why it matters more than you might think 🧵💸💻 We’re getting lots of reports of people being hit by unexpected VAT charges and delays on their online deliveries when the vendor is in Europe. Why is this happening?....1/
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
6 months
Thanks for the kind messages today.🙏 As with many of my wonderful & talented #Newsnight colleagues, I'm not sure what the future holds for me. But in the meantime the show literally goes on! Tune in tonight where I'll be analysing the latest UK housebuilding data BBC2 1030pm
@BenChu_
Ben Chu
6 months
BREAKING: Annoucement from the BBC on the future of #Newsnight 👇
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
BREAKING @BBCNewsnight has learned that gas shipping firm CNG @CNGenergyUK has written to its domestic supplier company customers saying it will no longer be providing them with gas - and they should seek alternative shippers...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
26 days
...ONS: "All this suggests that many people have interlinked and complex health issues, which might mean that they have more than one health barrier to hinder their return to the world of work"...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
7 years
Is this same Fraser Nelson who's spent years rubbishing the idea of UK inequality & calling for more spending cuts?:
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
European official data (Eurostat) and UK official data (ONS) have shown a somewhat different picture on post-Brexit trade patterns. 🚄🚚🇬🇧🇪🇺 What's going on? A thread...1/11
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
5 years
Remember those 40 European Union free trade deals that the Trade Secretary Liam Fox said would be rolled over by this week ensuring continuity of trade for UK exporters even if we experienced a no-deal Brexit?...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
1 year
Striking what's happened to public vs private sector pay since 2010. Using inflation-adjusted average weekly earnings, total pay in public sector today is around 5% lower (£597 vs £626), having been 6% higher 12 years ago...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
Is the European Union really being unreasonable over the City of London? Or are we seeing an inevitable consequence of a Brexit that prioritised sovereignty over financial services? A thread…🧵💵🏦🇬🇧🇪🇺
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
26 days
...this risks giving the impression that depression/anxiety is the *only* reason that they are economically inactive...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
Thread on how easy it is to get tricked into haemorrhaging money from your bank account after an online purchase – and why financial regulators seem to be behind the curve on this.🧵💸💻 Forgive the personal story, but I think it's relevant...1/
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
8 years
Just savour this wonderful line from today's Daily Mail editorial:
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
10 months
...And that's a deterioration both relative to our performance *before* the financial crisis and also relative to most of our G7 peers *since* then. ENDS
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
10 months
...Second, what really matters for household living standards is not GDP growth, but productivity, or the amount of economic output we get for each hour we work. And here the comparison is even less flattering...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
5 years
Some personal news from me. I'm joining the @BBCNewsnight team early next month as Economics Editor whilst @helentbbc is off on maternity...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
10 months
....As I noted in this Twitter thread last year, what's pretty clear from the statistics (and actually undisputed by economists) is that there has been a deterioration in the UK's economic performance since 2010...
@BenChu_
Ben Chu
1 year
How has the UK economy *really* performed relative to other G7 economies since 2010? 📉📈🧐 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 🇯🇵 🇮🇹 🇨🇦 A chart thread 🧵...1/
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
The OBR estimates CPI inflation at 1.5% in 2021 and 1.8% in 2022 - so a 1% pay rise for NHS staff would be a real terms pay *cut*
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@Smyth_Chris
Chris Smyth
3 years
New: The government is proposing a 1% pay rise for NHS staff in 2021-22. This is going to be explosive after the lack of extra cash in the budget - unions livid and preparing to accuse ministers of failing staff who got the nation through the pandemic.
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
10 months
...First, since 2010 the UK has had higher migration than other big European countries. If we look at GDP per capita (so adjusting for the difference in population growth) the UK has not grown faster than Germany...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
6 years
Who would suffer more in a no deal WTO Brexit? The UK or EU? The IMF's (unsurprising) answer is here:
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
4 years
Some personal news My stint at @BBCNewsnight has come to an end. I’ve loved every minute of the past year and am proud of the many stories and reports we've done. Profound thanks to everyone who works on this brilliant programme for teaching me about TV...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
7 months
...Not sure it's only "with hindsight" that one could make this argument. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard in 2013: "If things look bad at the beginning of 2013 - which they do - then there should be a reassessment of fiscal policy" ...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
26 days
...As @TorstenBell points out, this is problematic for those who assume that the state being stricter when it comes to granting sickness benefits for people with mental health problems would be an effective policy...
@TorstenBell
Torsten Bell
26 days
The rhetoric again is all about mental health, but in practice @DWPgovuk will find it very hard (impossible probably) to totally separate out physical/mental health/disabilities ie reform here would end up affecting people with physical disabilities too
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
5 years
EXCLUSIVE @BBCNewsnight has learned around 75% of civil service staff assigned to prepare for no-deal Brexit before 29 March have been stood down - and now face being stood up again. Experts say this shows 'damage' done to the functioning of Government
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
When Boris Johnson said - wrongly - there will be no non-tariff barriers to trade with the EU it wasn't a slip of the tongue or an extempore blurt. The line was explicitly written in his address 👇
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
Excellent dissection by my @BBCNewsnight colleague @lewis_goodall on Boris Johnson's claim that the UK's national productivity shotcomings are a consequence of excessive EU immigration...
@BBCNewsnight
BBC Newsnight
3 years
Can the prime minister solve the UK's productivity problem by reducing immigration? @lewis_goodall reports #Newsnight
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
Jacob Rees-Mogg the Brexit opportunities minister made his first official trip today to the port of Felixtowe. Meanwhile, the Port of Dover had to put its overspill lorry queueing system into operation once again. Tune in to #Newsnight tonight for this report 👇
@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
Coming tonight on #Newsnight - what’s really responsible for the lorry queues at Dover? And what can we say about those Brexit opportunities?
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
Pretty worrying - UK market borrowing costs coming back up. 30 year Gilt yields now only 52 basis points off post #MiniBudget panic peak 10 year Gilt yields only 19 basis points off...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
4 years
🚨I'm told Ed Humpherson, Director General for Regulation at Office for Statistics Regulation (UK's statistics watchdog), spoke privately yesterday to @uksciencechief and @CMO_England to voice concerns about their presentation of modelling data at last Saturday's press conference
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
8 years
Downing St asked MigrationWatch for evidence of UK communities under pressure due to immigration to help persuade EU of problem...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
Coming tonight on #Newsnight - what’s really responsible for the lorry queues at Dover? And what can we say about those Brexit opportunities?
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
10 months
....It's productivity growth which underpins wage growth, and our relatively weak productivity performance helps explain this...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
How are UK manufacturing exporters coping with Brexit? 🪛📦🏭🧑‍🏭🚚🇬🇧🇪🇺 A thread...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
6 months
What a privilege it is to do this job! Working with brilliant studio floor teams #Newsnight
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
Former Cabinet minister David Lidington tells @MarkUrban01 on #Newsnight that Western sanctions needed to go further than Putin expected to be effective - says what we saw today was “priced in” by the Kremlin & therefore falls short
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
BREAKING #gascrisis @BBCNewsnight has seen a letter from gas shipper CNG - which is exiting the wholesale market - to struggling domestic energy supplier firms saying that have only until 30 November to find a new shipper...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
7 years
The 'Lexit' case is built on wilful ignorance and ideologically-induced blindness. My @IndyVoices column:
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
4 years
EXCLUSIVE: Potential economic gains from post-Brexit trade deals will NOT offset losses from leaving EU @BBCNewsnight report...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
7 years
This is a rather perspicacious section of Tony Blair's Brexit speech:
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
26 days
...a) people could still be eligible because of other physical health problems or b) they could see their benefits removed/curtailed, while they still really needed them for their physical health problems
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
16 days
What's happening with asylum claims in Ireland? 🇮🇪 Is there evidence of a spillover from the UK's Rwanda scheme? What does the data suggest? (Updated) thread 🧵
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
So who is *really* guilty of “vaccine nationalism”? 🇬🇧🇪🇺🇺🇸💉 A thread...🧵
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
Pound vs dollar reaction to Liz Truss resignation - clear move when statement timing announced...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
26 days
....here's the ONS data - in 2023, three times more people gave "depression, bad nerves or anxiety" as a secondary health condition (of potentially several other additional choices) than gave it as their main condition:
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
Here's the #minibudget2022 income distribution impact chart from @resfoundation . Poorest on the left, richest on the right. Speaks for itslef really 👇
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
7 months
...John Van Reenen of the LSE in 2013: "The most effective way to address deficient demand would be for the government to directly spend at least £20 billion on infrastructure over the next two years"...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
10 months
...and producivity growth also ultimately determines household disposable incomes, which helps explain why the UK's relative performance here is weaker than the raw GDP statistics would imply...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
Initial reaction to Jeremy Hunt moves this morning - some quick calculations. Briefing suggests OBR was projecting medium term fiscal hole of £70bn. HMT estimates all tax reversal now raise £32bn...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
11 months
What's going on with UK interest rates? 📈💵 And are we now being sucked back into an economic crisis we thought we’d escaped? A thread...🧵1/
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
5 years
...put this together with previous @BBCNewsnight revelations that two thirds of relevant UK exporters have not even got to STAGE ONE of no-deal preparation (applying for an EORI number)...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
5 years
In the 24 years before compulsory 5-10 schooling was made law in 1880 UK GDP grew by 68%. In the subsequent 24 years it grew by just 52%. Conclusion? Compulsory primary education must have slowed growth
@johnredwood
John Redwood
5 years
As UK GDP data begins in 1948 I've now confirmed that between 1948 & 1972 when we joined the EC, growth amounted to 118%. From 1993 to 2017, following completion of the single market, growth was just 69% In other words, growth inside the EU was 41% lower than before we joined.
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
7 months
...Jonathan Portes of NIESR in 2013 "With borrowing rates at historic lows, ample spare capacity, creaking infrastructure, and a chronic shortage of housing supply, now is the time to borrow and invest"...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
11 months
This interesting analysis from Bloomberg suggests the income *boost* to UK households, in aggregate, from higher interest rates has so far outstripped the income *hit* to all households from higher mortgage rates...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
...We will need to continue to monitor this, but it's at least arguable that the official ONS trade data is flattering the post-Brexit picture on UK goods exports to the EU. ENDS
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
Mark Fels of the HGV Recruitment Centre tells @faisalislam on @BBCNewsnight that temporary visas for EU hauliers would make "a small improvement...[but] not convinced...many of those drivers will return"
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
4 years
OBR puts the cost of Brexit so far at around 2% of GDP - roughly £40bn a year - mainly due to weaker business investment:
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
5 years
...reassurance from Calais that there will be 'no delay' must be seen in this context - this is because, due to the ferry company boarding policy, problems from to inadequate documentation would accumulate on the UK side, not the French side...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
5 years
...Working with @uk_tpo we have analysed the deals and found that they are 'incomplete' and not truly rolled over. UK firms have potentially been misled by suggestions from ministers that trade with these countries would be uninterrupted Story here:
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
22 days
Is that a plausible counterfactual for defence spending absent this announcement? Not really. ENDS
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
8 years
Philip Hammond slams "decades" of public under-investment in infrastructure Who cut government capital spending almost in half in 2010?
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
📈 Sterling actually picking up a bit against the dollar in the wake of the Cabinet resignations Change of leader priced in? Change of leader positive for sterling? 🤷‍♂️👇
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
The media is awash with talk of a “fiscal hole” that needs to be filled with tax rises/spending cuts in next week's #AutumnStatement . But what is this "fiscal hole" & how worried should we be about it? A thread... 🧵1/
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
4 years
Lots of comment about #TimMartin wanting to keep pubs open amid the #coronavirus emergency Possible relevant context: The market capitalisation of JD Wetherspoon has fallen from £1.6bn to £585m over past month Given Martin's 32% share = personal (paper) loss for him of £325m
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
7 years
Simon Jenkins has found a tribe - and it only took him 15 days
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
6 years
The Daily Mail says that to condemn Trump's retweeting of a UK far right hate group is "sanctimonious...hysterical...virtue signalling" and people should shut up lest it damages Brexit
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
...important to note that most economists would argue that this - infrastructure spending etc - is precisely the *wrong* spending to cut if goal is to boost UK supply side & future productivity growth.
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
...Could it happen? One question of whether the Office for Budget Responsibility could evaluate the plan on an accelerated time table But bigger issue is whether the Government actually has firm plans yet that COULD be brought forward...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
3 years
First day back @bbcnewsnight Raring to get going! & if you have an important public interest story please get in touch. DMs open!
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
7 years
Not the best backdrop against which to ask for a new UK-EU customs union...
@BenChu_
Ben Chu
7 years
"UK authorities turned blind eye to massive fraud network & allowed ultra-cheap Chinese goods to flood into Europe"
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
4 years
Are the costs of a no-deal Brexit "lower than they have ever been" because of the Covid slump, as per Government sources? Is a WTO Brexit a "very good option" in the words of Boris Johnson? Not in the view of the Office for Budget Responsibility 👇
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
Chef Tom Kerridge tells @maitlis on @BBCNewsnight he fears Boris Johnson's failure to order the sector to close and provide financial support might be due to his problems with his rebel backbenchers. "Are we playing politics with hospitality and theatre nightlife?" #Newsnight
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
UK 30 year gilt yields now *up* on the day - this is not the market reaction the PM must have hoped for...
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@BenChu_
Ben Chu
2 years
How does shifting the date of the fiscal event to 17 November help shrink the size of the fiscal hole that will be projected by the Office for Budget Responsibility? Very quick & rough explainer...
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