Office for Budget Responsibility @OBR_UK Twitter profile

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Office for Budget Responsibility

11 days

Report announcement 📣: Our third Fiscal risks and sustainability report will be published on 2 July 📗 We’ll have three chapters looking at: 🌏climate change 🏥 health spending 📈 debt sustainability Read more on our website:

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

1 year

Living standards are expected to fall by 6% over this fiscal year and next as inflation outstrips income growth. This is less than the 7% fall we expected in November but still the largest two-year fall since ONS records began in the 1950s. #SpringBudget #Budget2023

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

5 months

Living standards are forecast to be 3½ per cent lower in 2024-25 than pre-pandemic. This would be the largest reduction in living standards since records began in the 1950s, but only half the fall we expected in March. #AutumnStatement

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

2 months

UK trade intensity (exports plus imports divided by GDP) has not recovered in line with other G7 countries since the pandemic. We continue to expect that Brexit will reduce the UK’s potential GDP by 4% in the long run by lowering the trade intensity of the economy. #Budget2024

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

3 years

Debt has risen above 100% of GDP for first time since 1960-61, but the cost of servicing that debt falls to new historic lows. #SpendingReview

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

3 years

We are still legally obliged to assess the Government against its fiscal targets. Based on our central forecast, they are all missed. #Budget2021

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

Our three-month lockdown scenario sees GDP fall by a third, but with a quick recovery as the restrictions are lifted. #OBRcovidscenario

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

2 years

We have just been commissioned by the Chancellor to produce an updated outlook for the economy and public finances on Wednesday 23 November

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

5 months

Our November 2023 GDP forecast. Full forecast published after the Chancellor’s #AutumnStatement speech

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

1 year

How are our Brexit assumptions performing? In light of higher-than-expected net migration but relatively weak business investment and trade, we have left our view unrevised that Brexit will result in 4% lower productivity in the long run. More in Box 2.4

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

Robert Chote stands down today after 10 years as Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility. BRC colleagues and OBR staff applaud his success in establishing the OBR and promoting the cause of fiscal transparency. Best of luck – we will miss you! 👨‍🎨 @SimonHeath1

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

5 years

Fiscal risks report published: shocks and pressures that could threaten the public finances and fiscal sustainability. @hmtreasury due to respond within a year. #OBRfiscalrisks

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

At midday today we’ll publish results of a coronavirus scenario illustrating the possible effects on the economy and public finances of a 3-month shutdown and the Government’s policy responses. This is *not* a forecast, just 1 scenario of many that could unfold. #OBRcovidscenario

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

7 years

Just to be clear, we are NOT assessing 'no deal' and other possible Brexit negotiation outcomes in our Fiscal Risks Report tomorrow

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

3 years

We have also tested how a ‘no deal’ Brexit affects our central forecast and scenarios. If we left without a deal, GDP would be a further 2% lower in 2021 and 1.5% lower in 2025. #SpendingReview

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

Our #OBRcovidscenario and accompanying spreadsheets are now available on our website:

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

1 year

Business investment has stagnated since 2016. It is given a temporary boost by the 100% capital allowances announced in the #SpringBudget but falls back when they expire in 2026. Total investment from 2022 to 2028 is little changed from our November forecast. #Budget2023

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

6 years

Brexit: we continue to base our forecasts on broad-brush assumptions regarding the UK leaving the EU, but there is now sufficient clarity to estimate the size of the ‘divorce bill’ #SpringStatement

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

3 years

The tax rises announced in #Budget2021 increase the tax burden to 35 per cent of GDP in 2025-26, its highest level since Roy Jenkins was Chancellor in the late 1960s

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

3 years

What risks does #climatechange pose for government finances? 🌍 OBR Economists Rachel and Tom explain some of the risks we’ve considered in chapter 3 of our 2021 #OBRfiscalrisks report 📗 Read more:

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

1 year

Our November 2022 GDP growth forecast. Full forecast published after the Chancellor’s #AutumnStatement speech

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

2 years

The OBR met with the Prime Minister and Chancellor this morning to discuss our upcoming forecast. Meeting summary on our website.

OBR meeting with the Prime Minister and Chancellor - Office for Budget Responsibility

The OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee met with the Prime Minister and Chancellor this morning. We discussed the economic and fiscal outlook and the forecast we are preparing for the Chancellor’s...

obr.uk

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

5 months

The Chair of the OBR has written to the Editor of the Sunday Telegraph regarding an article that appeared in their 17 December edition. We have published this letter on our website.

Letter from Richard Hughes to the Editor of the Sunday Telegraph - Office for Budget Responsibility

The Chair of the OBR has written to the Editor of the Sunday Telegraph regarding an article about a member of OBR staff that appeared in their 17 December edition. We have published this letter below.

obr.uk

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

In our scenario, the shock to the economy and the huge Government policy response raise this year’s budget deficit by around £220bn to around 14% of GDP and public debt to around 100% of GDP. #OBRcovidscenario

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

3 years

Our March 2021 GDP forecast. Full forecast published after the Chancellor’s #Budget2021 speech

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

Debt to reach £2 trillion: In cash terms, Budget giveaways push debt above £2 trillion for the first time. Debt is now broadly flat as a share of GDP over the forecast. #Budget2020

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

1 year

Our March 2023 GDP forecast. Full forecast published after the Chancellor’s #SpringBudget speech

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

Just a year and a half ago, the Government was on course to balance the budget in the medium term. Budget giveaways and better accounting treatment now leave a deficit of around £60bn. #Budget2020

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

Robert Chote thanks the OBR's staff, alumni, contributors and stakeholders on its 10th anniversary 🎂 #10yearsofOBR

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

1 year

Government support this year and next adds 3½% on average to household incomes. But even so, living standards are set for the largest fall on record this year. And real incomes per person fall 7% over the 2 years to 2023-24, wiping out the previous 8 years’ growth.

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

1 year

November 2022 forecasts published – more highlights and charts to follow 📘 Richard Hughes explains five things you need to know about our forecast #AutumnStatement Data and supporting documents are now available on our website:

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

10 months

Government debt levels have tripled since the start of this century. Despite all Chancellors since 2010 aiming to get debt falling, at 100 per cent of GDP, debt is at its highest level in over 60 years #OBRfiscalrisks

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

July 2020 scenarios and projections published – more highlights and charts to follow 📚 Data and supporting documents are now available on our website: #OBRFSR2020

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

2 years

We have just published an update on the timetable for producing the forecast requested by the Chancellor for 31 October.

Forecast timetable to 31 October published - Office for Budget Responsibility

On 10 October the Chancellor announced that the publication of our forecast will be brought forward to Monday 31 October. That day we will publish our latest outlook for the economy and public...

obr.uk

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

10 months

Our updated long-term projection sees debt surpass 300% of GDP in 50 years’ time. And it would go even higher if rising debt pushes interest rates up further or shocks over the next 50 years prove to be as frequent and costly as those over the past two decades #OBRfiscalrisks

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

5 years

Brexit in our forecasts As required by Parliament, our forecasts reflect Government policy as it stood when we closed the forecast last week. We assume: • UK leaves the EU on 29 March • An orderly Brexit • A transition period to December 2020 #SpringStatement

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

Business investment has flatlined – disappointing even the relatively modest 9 per cent growth over three years that we forecast just after the Brexit vote.

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

3 years

By historical standards, the economy has suffered the sharpest contraction since the Great Frost of 1709 at 11% this year. #SpendingReview

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

3 years

Our October 2021 GDP forecast. Full forecast published after the Chancellor’s #Budget2021 speech

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

10 months

Have you ever wondered how the government’s finances have changed over the past 300 years? Check out our new historical public sector finances database and read our article to discover the key trends:

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

5 years

The IMF’s relatively benign ‘no deal Brexit’ scenario could increase borrowing by £30 billion a year #OBRfiscalrisks

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

1 year

At £6.5bn, the Chancellor has given himself less headroom than any of his predecessors – just a quarter of the average of £26bn since 2010. #SpringBudget #Budget2023

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

1 year

Our latest forecasts for the economy and public finances will be published later today after the Chancellor’s #AutumnStatement speech 📘 Follow us later for charts and highlights 📊

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

Budget deficit leaps to £62 billion in April 2020 alone – read the latest commentary at

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

2 years

Tax burden still set to rise from 33.0% in 2019-20 to 36.3% of GDP in 2026-27, its highest level since the 1940s. NICs and IT cuts in today's #SpringStatement reverse 1/6th of the total tax rises this Chancellor has announced since coming to office.

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

Two ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ economic shocks have hit in just over a decade. The coronavirus crisis has created new risks and reshaped existing ones #OBRFSR2020

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

How high will unemployment rise? That depends in part on how many furloughed workers lose their jobs rather than returning to them #OBRFSR2020

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

2 years

We have just published an update on the timetable for producing the forecast requested by the Chancellor for 23 November

Next steps in the November 2022 forecast - Office for Budget Responsibility

The Chancellor has commissioned the OBR to publish an updated forecast on 23 November alongside the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan. As part of every forecasting process, we provide the Chancellor with a...

obr.uk

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

5 years

Issues for the Government's response... For a comprehensive list of all risks we’ve raised and our latest assessment, download the Fiscal risk register:

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

7 years

FER17: as productivity growth disappoints again we review our forecast assumptions and the rationale underpinning them.

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

3 years

October 2021 forecasts published – more highlights and charts to follow 📘 Richard Hughes explains five things you need to know about our forecast #Budget2021 Data and supporting documents are now available on our website:

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

9 years

OBR: 2014-15 budget deficit revised up from £86.4bn to £91.3bn like-for-like #AS2014 http://t.co/d2zeowz1hp

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

2 years

Our latest forecasts for the economy and public finances will be published later this afternoon after the Chancellor’s #SpringStatement speech 📘 Follow us later for charts and highlights 📊

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

Welcome to Richard Hughes, who begins his first term as Chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility today.

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

1 year

By the mid-2020s, the tax burden is 4% of GDP higher than pre-pandemic and 1% of GDP higher than forecast in March. It peaks above 37% in 2023-24 and remains near that peak – its highest sustained level for seven decades. #AutumnStatement

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

3 years

The November 2020 forecast at a glance #SpendingReview

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

2 years

Our March 2022 GDP forecast. Full forecast published after the Chancellor’s #SpringStatement speech

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

Our latest estimate of the total cost of the Chancellor’s coronavirus policy interventions is £123 billion in 2020-21. This now includes the latest CJRS extension and some guarantees on business loans being called. More detail on our website:

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

6 years

We conclude that the move to UC is: fiscally significant and complicated to assess; has large, but largely offsetting, effects on spending; involves large gains and losses for some groups; and poses a risk to public spending control due to information gaps.

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

10 months

The UK Government has seen a larger and more rapid rise in its debt servicing costs than other advanced economies. This is due to our larger rise in interest rates, larger share of inflation-linked debt, and shorter effective maturity #OBRfiscalrisks

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

3 years

#ICYMI In our November forecast, we estimated the impact of a no deal Brexit on the economy and public finances. Our scenario suggests a no deal Brexit would result in an additional reduction in real GDP by around 2 per cent in 2021. Read more in Annex B

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

How quickly will the economy recover and how much ‘scarring’ will there be in the medium term? #OBRFSR2020 sets out three scenarios

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

3 years

#ICYMI Our chair, Richard Hughes, spoke with @bbclaurak and @adamfleming on #BBCNewscast last night to discuss our virus & no deal scenario results, the sensitivity of debt interest spending and 'balancing the books'

Adam Fleming

@adamfleming

3 years

Latest #BBCNewscast has a really interesting interview with the new chair of @OBR_UK on the day of the #SpendingReview

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

5 months

Financial markets now expect Bank Rate to peak at 5.4%. This is more than 1 percentage point higher than our March forecast for Bank Rate of 4.3%. A higher Bank Rate raises the cost of mortgages as well as the Government’s debt. #AutumnStatement

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

6 years

As trailed last month, we have downgraded our productivity growth forecast. We now assume average growth of 1.1% a year from 2018 to 2022. #Budget2017

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

2 years

#ICYMI How might this energy price shock differ from the 1970s? We're back to being a net importer of energy like in the 1970s. But we're 2/3rds less energy intensive now vs 1970s due to energy-efficiency and smaller manufacturing sector.

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

1 year

House prices are forecast to fall by 9% over the next 2 years and remain below their current level over the next five years. #AutumnStatement

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

1 year

#ICYMI Richard Hughes, OBR Chair, explained the top 5 takeaways from yesterday's report 📘 #AutumnStatement

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

The Chancellor has just announced that the Spending Review will be published on Wednesday 25 November. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day.

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

6 years

Brexit discussion paper published today We discuss how we expect to approach forecasting in the pre- and post-Brexit environment, and challenges posed for us by forthcoming policy developments.

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

2 years

Goods exports have recovered to pre-pandemic levels in other advanced economies, but UK exports remain ~12% below 2019 levels The UK has become a less trade-intensive economy, with trade as % of GDP also falling by ~12% since 2019, 2.5X more than in any other G7 economy

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

2 years

The Chancellor has announced that we will now publish our forecast on 17 November alongside his Autumn Statement. We will update our forecast timetable shortly.

Update on our Autumn 2022 forecast - Office for Budget Responsibility

The Chancellor has announced that the publication of our forecast will be set to a later date of 17 November. That day our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will accompany the...

obr.uk

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

3 years

The #OBRfiscalrisks report draws on @theCCCuk and @bankofengland scenarios to estimate the net fiscal impact of reaching net zero by 2050. An early action scenario adds 21% to the debt/GDP ratio – a lot, but less than either the 2020 pandemic or the 2008 financial crisis.

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

Robert Chote introduces our coronavirus reference scenario. Watch the full video here: #OBRcovidscenario

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

10 months

Tomorrow we will be publishing a database and accompanying article on the history of the UK’s public finances back to 1700

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

Our new database tracks the Chancellor’s policy interventions to limit the economic damage of coronavirus crisis. So far, the cost in 2020-21 is roughly £105 billion (in cash terms) Download from our website:

Coronavirus analysis - Office for Budget Responsibility

This page brings together all coronavirus databases and analysis produced by the OBR on an ad-hoc basis or within our core documents between April 2020 and March 2021.

obr.uk

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

CJRS cost revised down 30% as usage suggests employers have concentrated furloughing among part-time and lower-paid jobs. Average pre-virus weekly pay looks to have been around £320 – much closer to median part-time than full-time earnings. Read more:

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

3 years

We are still legally obliged to assess the Government against its fiscal targets. Based on our central forecast, they are missing most. #SpendingReview

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

2 months

The £8.9 billion margin in our central forecast against the debt falling target is lower than the average of £26.1 billion that Chancellors have set aside against their fiscal rules since 2010, and is a small fraction of the risks around any fiscal forecast. #Budget2024

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

6 years

Our October 2018 GDP forecast. Full forecast published after the Chancellor's speech #Budget2018

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

1 year

Everyone at the OBR is saddened to hear of the death of Sir Alan Budd, the first Chair of the OBR. We send our condolences and best wishes to his friends and family.

HM Treasury

@hmtreasury

1 year

We send our condolences to the family and friends of Sir Alan Budd, former Chairman of the @OBR_UK & Chief Economic Adviser to the Treasury.

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

1 year

Successive Chancellors have committed themselves to getting public debt to fall as a share of GDP, but it is now three times higher than at the start of the century. Why is it so hard to get debt to fall? A thread #Budget2023 #SpringBudget

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

5 months

Tax cuts in the #AutumnStatement policies reduce the tax burden by ½ a per cent of GDP by 2028-29. But the tax burden is still forecast to rise in each of the next 5 years to a post-war high of 38 per cent of GDP.

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

5 years

Following the cancellation of the Budget, we plan to publish a restated version of our March public finance forecast, incorporating subsequent @ONS classification and other statistical changes. Read our letter to @hmtreasury :

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

1 year

March 2023 forecasts published – more highlights and charts to follow 📘 Richard Hughes explains five things you need to know about our forecast #SpringBudget #Budget2023 Read the full report here:

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

2 years

Higher oil prices quickly feed into higher fuel prices (yellow) while higher gas prices increase household utilities bills (blue) with a lag via the Ofgem energy price cap. These energy-driven pressures added to existing pressures on prices of imported goods (red).

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

2 years

March 2022: The forecast in pictures #SpringStatement

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

2 years

We’ve just published our first Fiscal risks and sustainability report, looking at near-term fiscal risks and long-term fiscal pressures. FRS 2022 focuses on 3 significant threats to the public finances: 🌍rising geopolitical tensions ⛽️higher energy prices 🧓an ageing population

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

2 years

How does the Russian invasion of Ukraine affect the UK economy? Higher global gas and oil prices add to existing inflationary pressures in global goods and domestic labour markets. Near-term gas prices have doubled and oil prices risen by more than 50% since our Oct forecast.

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

9 years

OBR: Where is the deficit reduction coming from? Mostly public services spending #AS2014 http://t.co/BYqwa8MOJL

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

7 years

We will assess risks from the economy and financial system, to tax revenues, public spending and the balance sheet, and a fiscal stress test

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

9 years

Government raises taxes, cuts welfare and borrows more, to ease departmental spending cuts #SummerBudget http://t.co/WVEA3y4TYz

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

1 year

The Chancellor has set the date for the Spring Budget 2023: Wednesday 15 March That day we will update our outlook for the economy and public finances.

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

3 years

The future is too uncertain to forecast only one path. We look at three possible scenarios for the path of the virus depending on the effectiveness of the current lockdown, test and trace, and vaccines. #SpendingReview

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

3 years

Our latest forecasts and scenarios for the economy and public finances will be published later this afternoon after the Chancellor’s #SpendingReview speech 📘 Follow us later for charts and highlights 📊

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

8 years

Welfare trends report: Welfare reforms save less than expected -

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

5 years

PIP was intended to save around £1½bn in 2015-16 relative to DLA continuing. We tested PIP against three simple scenarios for DLA having remained in place and found that PIP appears to have cost more than DLA would have – by around £1½ to £2bn a year.

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

3 years

Our November 2020 GDP forecast . Full forecast published after the Chancellor’s #SpendingReview speech

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

2 years

March 2022 forecasts published – more highlights and charts to follow 📘 Richard Hughes explains five things you need to know about our forecast #SpringStatement Data and supporting documents are now available on our website:

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

4 years

We have updated the fiscal results of our reference scenario. Public sector net borrowing in 2020-21 has been revised up to £298.4 billion (£25.5 billion higher than our 14 April results).

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Office for Budget Responsibility

@OBR_UK

1 year

As a result, underlying debt rises to a peak of 98% of GDP in 2025-26, before falling to 97% in the final year of the forecast. But this still leaves the level of debt £400bn (18% of GDP) higher in 2026-27 than we forecast in March.

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