Hello all - I’m back on here, back in economics and after a few weeks wilfully getting lost in transit, am newly on here👇🏾, and shortly on air in a new role as Economics Editor of the BBC..
first take on data, trade wars, Brexit, fiscal gymnastics...👋
Japan building revolutionary 177 mile maglev from Tokyo to Nagoya for £45bn, 90% in tunnels under mountains as part of integrated Shinkansen system…
equivalent of London to Manchester (in straight line) in 40 minutes… at 310mph…
Sage epidemiologist Professor John Edmunds asked by Marr if he regrets anything in science advice... immediately replies:
“yes we should have gone into lockdown earlier...it cost a lot of lives unfortunately”...
NEW
OBR confirms on record my story from 9 days ago that it prepared a draft forecast for new Chancellor waiting for him on first day at Treasury 6th September, and that an offer for a legally compliant forecast to accompany the mini-budget was rejected.
V odd this “race to be PM” from afar - tax plans that won’t pass this Parliament, Brexit “plans” that won’t pass Parliament, promise not to have GE - promises being made to tiny selectorate that aren’t in hands of winner to deliver...
It’s like a unicorn Grand National.
Extraordinary scenes at some UK ports - after P&O halted ferries to fire all crew and replace with a third party contractor… images circulating of what we are told are handcuff trained security with some wearing balaclavas taking British crew off, after they were fired on zoom…
You can’t seriously have posted your supporters literally blocking an ambulance from Guys and St Thomas’ Hospital on an emergency run. Seriously,
@andywigmore
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@arron_banks
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WATCH | Brexiteers in yellow vests bring Westminster Bridge to a standstill in protest at Theresa May's Brexit sell-out.
This is what happens when the Establishment ignores the will of the people...
🙋♂️ Support us at
👀
Senior French journo briefed that Macron phoned PM on Friday and said that if UK did not impose serious shutdown measures, French would have no choice but to close border to travellers from UK, & were ready to do so Friday. Says Elysee refers to UK policy as “benign neglect”
From Red to Green....
The yellow and red was very specifically chosen to connote warning, hazard, emergency around the “stay home” message... Red & Green have v different meaning in safety regs...
NEW
Labour Party write to PM and call for him to remove whip from former PM Liz Truss for “spreading disinformation and conspiracy theories about a ‘deep state’ that is to blame for the downfall of her premiership”
“spreading such blatant conspiracy theories is incredibly…
Let me tell you just two* stories which might have wider resonance about a special person who we were saying bye to today... Dadu, Mukul, Chow to some, to me... Dad.
A few years ago, I spoke at the 500th anniversary of my old school. trying to capture spirit of Manchester...
Just checking why yesterday’s slide said 38,489 cumulative deaths, and today’s says 39,045, an increase of 556... but the daily number is 111... would appear there has been some revisions...
Whilst reporting that some pro Brexit campaigners in yellow jackets were shouting misogynist stuff at Kay and that I was “not British” and “a rapist” ... well done all who helped create this situation. Good job.
My friend has been at that amazing Japan-Spain match… after qualifying top with an incredible win… the Japanese fans are organising a litter pick and tidy up in the stands…
NEW: INEOS owned by billionaire Brexit backer Jim Ratcliffe officially end plan to build new Grenadier car in UK in Bridgend will be built in Hambach, in France, it announces...
Normalisation of words “traitor/treachery” to mean “people who disagree with my belief”...
Not entirely sure how political system is meant to do its job of mediating sustainable democratic compromise in such circumstances...
Full extraordinary
@Andrew_Adonis
resignation letter from Chair of UK infrastructure commission over EU Withdrawal Bill - “worst legislation of my lifetime” for a “Ukip allied Brexit ..fraught with danger” and “indefensible bailout” of East Coast Mainline:
This the IMF telling a G7 member and major shareholder to “reevaluate” their signature economic policy because it “does not recommend” such packages and will “increase inequality”… suggests profound international concern in finance ministries about a global impact of UK crisis
So, 1 year & 43 weeks after EU referendum, with 300 days until UK becomes a third country under EU law, Government can’t decide between 2 options already rejected by the other side of the negotiation, and not backed by business, and for which it may not get Parliamentary support
The End.
Final
@skynews
live from Downing St with the people that make it all happen
@KeithHopkins
-thanks to all the amazing camera, sound, production, logistical & technical colleagues helping us bring 5 years of political madness to air. Privilege to have been Pol Ed
Standing ovation for Starmer after he tells Labour conference that if the PMs deal fails and she refuses a General Election: “options must include campaigning for a Public Vote and nobody is ruling out Remain as an option”.
Feels like a significant moment in UK politics/ Brexit
24hr UK in auto
- Honda factory shuts on parts shortage ports chaos
- Toyota warns not just on no deal but deal detail/RoO
- Brexit backing billionaire cans Welsh factory plan, picks French plant
- car bosses tell MPs tariffs would see UK car production fall from 1.3-1.6m to 800k
Airbus chief exec attacks Brexit “disgrace” - no Deal will divert investment and make no mistake other countries want to build wings for aircraft. “Airbus not dependent on UK”...
It did warn about this months ago.
@MarcusRashford
seems to mean accusing someone of doing an apparently virtuous thing, with secret aim of being seen as outward reflection of character rather than good in and of itself ..Interestingly, the act of accusing someone of virtue signalling, is arguably itself virtue signalling.
Many people going through grief at the moment, but his is a positive story of Britain, with strange arcs in history.
As a journo I know we can overly focus on extremes, intolerance, & morons.
The great mass of people are just extraordinarily ordinary, good & get on, like Dad.
British Social Attitudes Survey author Prof John Curtice: its results, corroborated by polls “is enough to raise doubts about whether, two and half years after the original ballot, leaving the EU necessarily continues to represent the view of a majority of the British public”
Taiwan, closest neighbouring country to Wuhan, free of local transmission for 200 days with growing economy in 2020, thanks to
- world class test & trace averaging 20-30 contacts per case
- central distribution of masks & compliance
- border control
@MarcusRashford
@England
Zero to apologise for - part of the best England team in our lifetimes… and an inspiration to kids up and down the country…. United fans will be happy to have you back and firing us to some trophies, and with this crew and a bit of luck, England will win one in your time…
MORE: info on Way Bank machine internet archive corroborated by info on actual blog sitemap -hat tip
@martbrow
@exactlyaron
and
@jonwilliams80
edit that added “coronavirus” quote made “2020-04-14 T20:55:20”
So same day he returned to work, after Durham
Dominic Grieve deselection campaign being led by someone who not only stood against him as Ukip candidate in GE 2017, was a UKIP local council candidate and local branch chairman of Ukip, but also stood for the UKIP National Executive Council in 2016... now a Conservative.
BXP results make a new Tory leader backing No Deal by Oct 31st position almost certain...
But...
9.1 million people just voted for parties explicitly against No Deal (LD/G/L/CH/SNP...) ... vs 5.8m explicitly in favour...(BXP+Ukip) /1
Someone’s ordered a jumbo Christmas tree that is so massive that half the broadcast positions in Downing Street won’t have any view of the Number 10 door.
Which will only matter in the blisteringly unlikely event of a major political crisis here in the next fortnight...
In 4 months, Cabinet Brexiteers have gone from:
1. No Transition to a 2 year transition
2. Parallel trade talks to non-parallel talks
3. No ECJ transition jurisdiction to No ECJ over new rules
4. Go Whistle" to £20bn
5. £20bn to £40bn
Conservative leadership front runner Boris Johnson just said that the EU will give a better deal because: “They will rapidly come to see that they have a new Government with a new mandate”... But actually the same Parliament, and the same lack of majority.
When asked by Marr about whether stories about plans to stockpile food for a “No Deal” were correct, Brexit Secretary Raab said it was an unhelpful “selective snippet that’s made it into the press”... which suggests Yes
This is the sort of EU27 backing that Ireland has been getting this week - Mark Rutte Dutch PM talking to UK reporters in Davos:
“Backstop wasn’t our idea” ... [ie UKs too] Given UKs red lines “it’s only thing on the table”... “what concessions do UK actually want?”
New
@SkyData
snap poll:
Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
No Brexit 54%
No deal 32%
Her deal 14%
So. It is Project Fear bad that the Bank of England Gov says a No Deal is “uncomfortably high” whereas it’s fine Liam Fox says it’s 60:40, and it’s good that we prepare for No Deal, but Project Fear to publish preps that might scare public, but good to publish plans scaring EU27
Rather massive elephant in room on politics of the car… is how coming Parliament will legislate to replace £28bn a year in fuel duty (given electric cars don’t use petrol/diesel, and new ones banned from 2030) with some other tax on motoring…
Much bigger than LTNs and Ulez…
UPDATE: all four UK Chief Medical Officers agreed that Covid Alert Level should remain at 4 at their meeting last Thursday, against the PM’s expressed “hopes” it would be lowered. More on
#bbcnewsSix
German and Italy are ramping up production of medical ventilators to meet expected peak epidemic demand. They cost $17k each. Italy getting army involved in helping production line...
As far as I’m aware UK has one small manufacturer of ventilators - that had 40% market share.
Luxembourg PM Bettel gestures towards empty podium where PM Johnson hasn’t appeared for planned press conference after meeting, Incredible perhaps, but certainly no Hulk...
This is what I asked about yesterday - why has the “people tested” column been “unavailable” on a daily and cumulative basis for a week now (they have supplied the “number of tests” data in that time) 👇🏾
Weirder and weirder...
@jwiechers
put blog through Internet archive machine and reference to coronavirus, quote on coronavirus was not in the version of blog saved on Way Back MAchine on Apr 9 2020 ... but is there this month...
Cummings said he warned about i.a. corona virus in 2019.
Thing is, he didn't. References to SARS and corona virus were added to his blog post on pandemic risks sometime between April and May of this year.
#Salzburg
latest
PM: it’s my Chequers Deal or No Deal
Tusk: EU27 agree Chequers “will not work”
Dutch PM: Netherlands is more prepared than UK for No Deal
French PRes: UK politicos who sold Brexit are “liars”
The hills are indeed alive...
NEW
Ports chaos has shut Honda motor factory due to parts shortage.
Honda confirmed to employees production “will not run on Wednesday 9 December due to transport-related parts delays”... - situation monitored with view to restart production as soon as possible
Chuka Umunna now listing the number of time the eurosceptics have rebelled against the Government...Davis - 90 times, Fox - 19 times, Leadsom - 7 times, Redwood - 17 times Jenkin - 95 times, Cash - 100+ times
“None of these people can lecture people seeking to do the right thing”
Cummings today: “Last year I wrote about the possible threat of coronaviruses and the urgent need for planning”.. appears to be reference to this blog... actually about biolab accidents and giving a “Red Team” £1m to test security including honey traps ..
Thank you for so many lovely comments. Delighted to take Economics Editor role next year, following in footsteps of BBC legends
⚠️ tho
I’ve done Global Financial Crisis, Eurozone crisis, now 5 year rolling political crisis. They do appear to stalk me.
Japanese ambassador in Downing Street unusually candid after PM meet with Nissan, Toyota, Honda etc:
“If there’s no profitability of continuing operations in UK no private company can continue operations...simple as that... this is all high stakes all of us need to keep in mind.”
Sainsburys chief actually understands behavioural science in email to customers: “more food and other essential items coming to us from manufacturers.. if we shop just for food we and our families need, there will be enough”
way to calm shoppers is to reassure on availability...
NEW
Internal pharma industry memo obtained by BBC:
No Deal Brexit stockpiles “significantly reduced and/or used up entirely” by Covid pandemic.
Warns Govt with “less or 0 product to allow for stockpiling” needs to now start & pay for one & ferries/ planes
On
@bbcr4today
shortly
NEW: Fishing groups decry failure to strike 2021 deal with Norway as a “disgrace” & “disaster”. UK Fisheries group say Government was “unable even to maintain the rights we have had to fish in Norwegian waters for decades”.
Say Norway will continue to export cod here tariff free
NEW / EXCL - breaking on
#bbcnewsten
and News online … Vauxhall owner Stellantis tells Government to renegotiate Brexit deal signed by Boris Johnson as it confirms for first time its UK electric car exports will not qualify for TCA from January as wont meet origin requirements.
🇮🇹 14 doctors in Italy lost their lives due to the coronavirus.
We must NEVER FORGET who have died in the frontline of this emergency.
#COVID19
#COVID2019italia
NEW
Not a great surprise…
Standard & Poors announces UK sovereign rating now on negative outlook from AA rating due to “rising risks to UK fiscal position… sizeable budgetary loosening announced Sep 23rd risk a substantial widening of the U. K. 's fiscal imbalances”
UK medicines pricing clearly on US side of table...
This video from January is US Pharma industry lobby telling US trade negotiators that US-UK trade deal is “an important opportunity” to deal with “artificially depressed prices” in UK - “dictated” via our “primary payer” system
NEW: 🚨
*Bank of England raises interest rates by 0.5% to 1.75%, biggest rise in 25 years,
*as it predicts an even higher peak in inflation of 13 (THIRTEEN) %
🚨 Bank predicts recession starting this year lasting as long as financial crisis (5 quarters), as deep as 1990s
my experience of Kwarteng is that he would not be someone to go quietly, or take one for the team, especially in a situation where he was literally enacting the signature policy of the PM.
Indeed senior financiers here in DC were of the impression he would “take her with him” 👀
NEW: Sky News obtains under Freedom of Information 30 studies on Brexit impact by local councils across the UK making contingencies and expressing concerns as Brexit clock ticks down, from social care, to food/medicines availability, border checks, to “social unrest”...
Labour MP in a 60% Leave area said he has 10 times as many people who have signed the Revoke petition in his constituency versus writing letters to him to back No Deal, that he has been open to be persuaded by PM, but calls never came - will now vote for Kyle-Wilson amendment.
Here is £500 block of cheddar destined for Canada from the Wiltshire warehouse of Coombe Castle. At moment 0% tariff under UK’s participation in EU-Canada trade deal.
After No Deal will be hit with a *£1200* tariff, after Canada chose not to roll over UK deal.. 245% tariff 🧀 /1
1/25 Part 1 - Why does soap work so well on the SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus and indeed most viruses? Because it is a self-assembled nanoparticle in which the weakest link is the lipid (fatty) bilayer. A two part thread about soap, viruses and supramolecular chemistry
#COVID19
This is the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill Impact Assessment, dated 21 October 2019:
It contains the Government’s own expectations at time the Brexit deal was done of the border/ checks required within UK, in the Irish Sea as a result of the PM’s deal:
Downing St has stopped selling the PMs flawed deal. Instead we have displacement activity designed to distract from last weeks failed renegotiation. And a concerted attempt to discredit every plausible alternative as they run down the clock. This is not in the national interest.
Observer’s Toby Helm asks a question about Cummings and to Van Tam: Should people in authority give a lead and obey the rules?
JVT says he’s happy to answer (unlike CSO/CMO)
“In my opinion the rules are clear and always been clear... In my opinion they apply to all”...
Basically exactly what medics were screaming from rooftops about “mitigation” not supression strategy... we don’t have the critical care capacity even of Italy. question is that now we are trying to suppress, would that not have worked better a week ago?
Wow. Tusk announces in Dublin that Irish Government gets formal veto over Brexit sufficient progress - he will consult with Varadkar to sign off any move to next phase
Who is he?
- went to Eton
- went to Oxford
- was in Bullingdon
- ran London
- became Foreign Secretary
- was considered great orator, writer & historian
- became PM
- lost his first vote as PM
- eventually got bored with politics.
It’s Archibald Primrose, the Earl of Rosebery.
Retailers in tier 4 areas facing disaster of having stocked up for 22 days of pre Christmas sales, and now lost 5 most lucrative days of entire year and the Boxing Day sales at very least - physically won’t be able to shift stock... all on top of 9 months financial stress
“Number 10 has been polling “culture war” issues, such as transgender rights, to see whether they can be weaponised against Labour in northern working-class constituencies” says the Times’
@RSylvesterTimes