Jason Furman @jasonfurman Twitter profile

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

Pouring roughly half trillion dollars of gasoline on the inflationary fire that is already burning is reckless. Doing it while going well beyond one campaign promise ($10K of student loan relief) and breaking another (all proposals paid for) is even worse.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

4 years

What policy will provide relief to: a. A waiter who is losing most of his tips b. A Lyft driver who is losing many of her trips c. A person who self quarantines without pay d. Someone who was going to re-enter the job market but can't now e. Everyone else Only one: CASH

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

President Biden will have an economic dream team. I am thrilled for him, for them, and most importantly, for the country. One tweet for each member, starting with the most important economic agency (that I ever ran):

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

My guess is the majority of Americans with a net worth of $50 to $300 million would get a tax cut under the Build Back Better plan with a full repeal of SALT. The bill would do more for the super-rich than it does for climate change, childcare or preschool. That's obscene.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

I have yet to find a blemish in this jobs report. I've never before seen such a wonderful set of economic data: --Job gains in most sectors --Big decline in unemployment rate, even bigger for Black & Hispanic/Latino --Redn in long-term unemp --Solid (nominal) wage gains

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

The Biden plan is the most impressive and ambitious child poverty plan ever in the United States. This would not just help in the short run but have long-run mobility benefits as well. Perhaps the 2nd most important part, the most important being combatting the virus.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

4 years

The idea that Harvard switch to online classes seemed like an overreaction 5 days ago. Today we made the obviously right decision to ask our undergraduates not to return after spring break. I don’t think anyone in the US will be sitting in a university classroom 2 wks from now.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

Genuine question: How did people think that FTX was funding the 8% interest it was paying on Bitcoin deposits if it was not using its customers funds for something? What was the benign explanation for this while the assets were fully/safely available for redemption?

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

4 years

You can 100% discount the possibility that Trump got to the BLS. Not 98% discount, not 99.9% discount, but 100% discount. BLS has 2,400 career staff of enormous integrity and one political appointee with no scope to change this number.

Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

4 years

This being the Trump era, you can't completely discount the possibility that they've gotten to the BLS, but it's much more likely that the models used to produce these numbers — they aren't really raw data — have gone haywire in a time of pandemic 3/

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

7 years

Increased net premium paid (for worse plan) for a 64-year old making $56,800: $11,600 Tax cut for a 65-year old making $1,000,000: $11,600

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

4 years

This might be the lowest point in the 74 year history of the Council of Economic Advisers. The stakes on the epidemiological questions are so high that this utterly superficial and misleading "modeling" has no place whatsoever in any discussion of the government's response.

CEA45 Archived

@WhiteHouseCEA45

4 years

To better visualize observed data, we also continually update a curve-fitting exercise to summarize COVID-19's observed trajectory. Particularly with irregular data, curve fitting can improve data visualization. As shown, IHME's mortality curves have matched the data fairly well.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

Worth remembering the vicious abuse that @ProfEmilyOster & others who made this argument were subjected to. Then think about other debates like that. You're not hearing from a lot of people on some topics because they don't want to deal with it. The result is worse outcomes.

The New York Times

@nytimes

2 years

Breaking News: Test results show the pandemic’s effect on U.S. students: The math and reading scores of 9-year-olds dropped steeply, erasing two decades of progress.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

4 years

The most important economics paper released so far today: "Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu"

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

If you're not a little confused about the economy you're not paying attention. Three of many historically large disconnects in the data: 1. Jobs growing & GDP contracting 2. Price growth rising & wage growth falling 3. Consumer sentiment plummeting & consumer spending rising

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

I don’t understand how the formula crisis is about capitalism: —The govt purchases half the product in a way that entrenches market power. —The govt closed a major plant. —The govt protects domestic companies from international trade with heavy regulations & tariffs.

The Nation

@thenation

2 years

The formula crisis is about capitalism—and the pressure to breastfeed about disregarding women.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

4 years

This is the best piece I've read on the epidemiology of the pandemic, including a stab at what a cost-benefit analysis might look like towards the end, filling in the numbers on that will become important as we get past the current phase of our response.

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time

tomaspueyo.medium.com

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

Student loan relief is not free. It would be paid for. Part of it would be paid for by the 87% of Americans who do not benefit but lose out from inflation. Part of it would be paid for by future spending cuts & tax increases—with uncertainty about who will bear those costs.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

GDP growth dramatically outpaced forecasts made a year ago. Most forecasters expected the economy to grow 3 to 4 percent this year. Instead it has grown 5.5 percent. That is more than a percentage point faster than even the most optimistic forecast was expecting.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

Whatever you thought of the merits of a gas tax holiday in February it is a worse idea now. Refineries are even more constrained now so supply is nearly fully inelastic. Most of the 18.4 cent reduction would be pocketed by industry--with maybe a few cents passed on to consumers.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

6 years

You should have gotten the employment numbers from the Council of Economic Advisers yesterday. And if this tweet is conveying inside information about a particularly good jobs number you should never get them in advance from the Council of Economic Advisers again.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

6 years

Looking forward to seeing the employment numbers at 8:30 this morning.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

7 months

I am reassured by the widespread condemnation of the statement by the Harvard Palestine Solidarity Group. But I am appalled by people threatening individual students. I'm even more appalled since many of them had nothing to do with the letter. Read this email from a recent grad.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

Student loan debt forgiveness likely has a multiplier close to zero. Forgiveness is taxable. If this negative cash flow effect outweighs interest savings would even be net negative. And wealth effect small in short run. Arbitrary/regressive $1T for ~$0 GDP, not a great idea.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

5 months

I really hope we don't let donors & politicians dictate who leads our school. Claudine Gay denounced calling for genocide before the hearing. She denounced it in the hearing. And she denounced it after the hearing.

‘I Am Sorry’: Harvard President Gay Addresses Backlash Over Congressional Testimony on Antisemitism...

‘I Am Sorry’: Harvard President Gay Addresses Backlash Over Congressional Testimony on Antisemitism | News | The Harvard Crimson

www.thecrimson.com

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

7 months

In my classes, I strive to create an inclusive environment for all perspectives. That's partly why I avoid public statements outside my lane. But as a member of the Harvard community, I feel compelled to address the statement from 36 Harvard student groups

Joint Statement by Harvard Palestine Solidarity Groups on the Situation in Palestine.docx

docs.google.com

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

The White House fact sheet has sympathetic examples about a construction worker making $38K and a married nurse making $77,000 a year. But then why design a policy that would provide up to $40,000 to a married couple making $249,000? Why include law and business school students?

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

Just the value of this 7.5K increase to the original $72.5K cap is larger than the entire child tax credit expansion for a middle-class family with two children. And this increase alone will go almost exclusively to households making over $1 million. Why are they doing this?

Andy Duehren

@aduehren

3 years

News: House Dems have yet another SALT plan. Would raise the cap to $80k for nine years, per people familiar, rather than $72.5k for ten years.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

7 months

First reaction to jobs numbers: Shock Second reaction: Nervousness Further reflection: This could be quite good 336K jobs, participation remains high, wage growth moderated further. We could be in the middle of a sustainable increase in labor supply.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

The federal minimum wage has been cut 2% in inflation-adjusted terms so far this year. It has been cut 20% in inflation-adjusted terms since it was last increased in 2009. It would seem worthwhile to get back to the discussion about how to increase it.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

The Inflation Reduction Act is what the country needs right now--helping to address one of our biggest long-run challenges (climate change) while making progress on our biggest short-run challenge (inflation) while protecting the most vulnerable. A 🧵on inflation/fiscal aspects.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

6 years

I consider myself a deficit dove. I'm comfortable with 3% GDP deficits--and higher in downturns. I don't think deficit reduction should be our top priority. But, deliberately sending an essentially full employment economy into deficits of 5% to 7% of GDP is nuts.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

Janet Yellen: Uniquely equipped for this moment. She has made monumental contributions to understanding & policy on the biggest issues of the day, from economic recovery to climate change. I can't wait to see what she will accomplish as Treasury Secretary.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

Preparing for class and just learned that the "pink tax" seems to be a myth. Identical (or nearly identical) goods marketed to women are, if anything, slightly cheaper on average than when marketed to men--contrary to this graphic and many more like it.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

Ceci Rouse: An outstanding economist & wonderful person, she brings deep knowledge & commitment to the most important issues the country faces including how to raise wages, reduce discrimination and improve education. She is also experienced with previous stints at NEC and CEA.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

This is a landmark proposal from President Biden, a minimum tax that also applies to unrealized gains—as a prepayment against future capital gains. This should get serious consideration as a fair and efficient way to raise significant revenue.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

Neera Tanden: Knows politics and policy, brilliantly balances & communicates about both. She will lead a powerful OMB that is oriented around advancing the President's most important goals, including tackling climate change, reducing inequality, and fostering growth.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

Getting everyone to switch from Bitcoin to Gamestop would be a big improvement for climate change.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

Jared Bernstein: A stalwart of economic policymaking. Jared is a keen analyst and passionate advocate for working people who is also trusted and respected across the political spectrum. He brings macro, trade, labor & more to the role.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

6 years

South Korea is not in TPP.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

6 years

While Japan and South Korea would like us to go back into TPP, I don’t like the deal for the United States. Too many contingencies and no way to get out if it doesn’t work. Bilateral deals are far more efficient, profitable and better for OUR workers. Look how bad WTO is to U.S.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

4 years

Everything who thinks the pandemic will change everything forever should contemplate this.

Cruise ship bookings for 2021 are already on the rise despite multiple COVID-19 outbreaks

Cruise lines have taken a serious financial hit over the crisis, but the loyalty of their customer base is an encouraging sign for the industry.

www.businessinsider.com

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

7 years

After-tax premium increase for 64 year old making $26,500: $12,900 Tax cut for 64 year old making $1,000,000: $12,900

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

5 years

I try not to troll but there is a limit to my willpower.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

In the last two quarters: GDP: -1% (assuming GDP Now is correct, a big assumption) Employment: +2% We have never seen a disconnect like that before in the data (available since 1948).

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

Congratulations to all six, I'm looking forward to further appointments. The country has big economic challenges, President Biden has ambitious economic goals, and now he will have an amazing group of women and men who can help him achieve those goals.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

Heather Boushey: Has built a phenomenal organization (the Washington Center for Equitable Growth) that is at the nexus of academic research and DC policymaking, exactly what the CEA should be. Heather has been a leading champion of inclusive growth and working families.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

I am beyond thrilled the President Biden is taking the long overdue step to adjust the Thrift Food Plan to be in line with the increased cost of healthy food. This is a large advance for poverty reduction, nutrition and opportunity for children.

Biden Administration Prompts Largest Permanent Increase in Food Stamps (Published 2021)

The jump in benefits, the biggest in the program’s history, comes after a revision of the initiative’s nutrition standards that supporters say will reduce hunger and better reflect how Americans eat.

www.nytimes.com

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

Wally Adeyemo: A major force in international economic policymaking in the Obama Administration, Wally rose rapidly through the ranks as one of the most talented economic policymakers of his generation. He is smart, effective and also kind.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

Most of the economic problems we're facing (inflation, supply chains, etc.) are high class problems. We wouldn't have had them if the unemployment rate was still 10 percent. We would instead have had a much worse problem.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

The best feasible step Democrats could take this year to dramatically reduce macroeconomic tail risks would be to eliminate the debt limit. The odds of something worse than the 2011 brinksmanship are higher than ever before and the consequences would be even worse than before.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

6 years

The economist in me loves that Spirit Airways charged me $49 for a ticket and $55 for a carry-on bag. But there is a lot more inside me than just an economist.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

11 months

Could people who understand pop music better than I do explain to me why Taylor Swift increases GDP but Beyoncé increases inflation?

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

4 years

If you had told me we would have a massive pandemic I would have predicted an increase in health spending. Shows why you shouldn't listen to me. Health spending down 4.9% in Q1 (not annualized). Responsible for nearly 1/2 of the overall GDP decline. Likely down much more in Q2.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

7 months

It is getting global attention and the sentiments it expresses are egregious. Blaming the victims for the slaughter of hundreds of civilians. Absolving the perpetrators of any agency. This is morally ignorant and painful for other members of the community.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

There are a number of other highly problematic impacts including encouraging higher tuition in the future, encouraging more borrowing, creating expectations of future debt forgiveness, and more.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

The crypto industry claims that if they were subject to basic tax compliance measures they would cease to exist. What does that say about the desirability of the existence of the industry?

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

5 years

Alan Krueger taught me about economic policy for more than two decades. His convincing empirical research on the most important questions is a lasting legacy. A devastating loss.

Alan Krueger, prominent Princeton economist, passes away

Princeton University is saddened to share that Alan Krueger, James Madison Professor of Political Economy, passed away over the weekend. Alan was recognized as a true leader in his field, known and...

www.princeton.edu

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

Part of the reason people might be upset is that this is not true. Real wages are down ~1% since the pandemic. Your data suffer from composition bias: about 5m generally lower-wage workers are no longer employed and not having them in the data spuriously raises wages.

Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

2 years

Yes, inflation is troubling. But real wages are up since prepandemic 4/

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

Overall I quite like the American Jobs Plan. It is a serious proposal that would help increase economic growth, ensure growth was more fair, and raise additional revenue in a broadly reasonable manner. Much that I would love to add, a bit I would subtract. A thread.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

The US economy has grown almost as much in six months as many major forecasters expected for the entire year (pre-American Rescue Plan forecasts). The economy is rapidly outpacing all of the major pre-ARP forecasts.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

Big picture on the jobs number: we are still 11.9 million jobs short of trend. February was OK but at that pace would take 4-1/2 years to recover. We need more like 1m jobs a month.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

4 years

The United States has only 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people. Italy has 3.2 beds per 1,000. We are moving rapidly towards a massive shortage: expanding hospitals, getting more beds, and figuring out how to make some mobile to handle local outbreaks is critical.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

The decline in real average hourly earnings at this point is terrible, the fastest pace of decline in 40 years.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

Uncomfortably hot jobs report. 528K jobs added & unemployment rate falls to 3.5%. What worries me re inflation is avg hourly earnings were up at a 5.8% ar in July. June revised to 5.4% (up from 3.8%). The wage moderation we were all discussing last month was simply wrong data.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

4 years

Will Sweden's strategy work to grow its economy? The forecasters at the European Commission appear not to think so. Deaths so far per 1 million population: Sweden: 314 Denmark: 90 Finland: 47 Commission forecast for growth in 2020: Sweden: -6.1% Denmark: -3.9% Finland: -5.3%

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

1 year

Terrific CPI report. Can't do much commentary but wanted to share charts so you can see the data yourself. Here is core CPI (i.e., excluding volatile food and energy).

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

If the economy adds zero jobs in August what is the best way to describe the jobs situation: *Zero jobs added in August *5.6m jobs added over the last year

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

Great personal income data. Strong income growth. Moderate consumption growth. Prices down in the month of July--excluding food & energy up at only a 1.0% annual rate in the month. Consumers still financing spending out of savings. Lots of challenges but a good month. More soon.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

1 year

I was appalled to see a leading scholar of poverty repeat the misleading claim that the poverty rate has not improved in the last 50 yrs in @nytimes . This is only true if you look at data that ignores most our major anti-poverty programs including the EITC, SNAP and more.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

Most importantly, everyone else will pay for this either in the form of higher inflation or in higher taxes or lower benefits in the future. I did a thread on this last night but given the new announcement you need to double everything in it.

Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

3 possibilities if transferring $250b to a group: 1. They raise their consumption (now and/or in future). Total output unchanged or rises by less--consumption of others falls. 2. Same but total output rises commensurately--others held harmless. 3. They never raise consumption.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

Don't freak out about the GDP report, the underlying inertial components were strong. The headline was -1.4% growth at an annual rate. BUT, inventories subtracted 0.8pp and net exports subtracted 3.2pp. Consumption, fixed investment, and key domestic demand components strong.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

1 year

A month ago 3 month-annualized supercore inflation (i.e., ex food, energy, shelter and used cars) was 1.8%. Now with new seasonal adjustment and an additional month of data it is 3.7%. Time to update your inflation views.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

1 year

The economy is very overheated. We have made little if any progress on inflation. There is little if any reason to expect a large slowdown going forward. Core PCE at an annual rate: 1 month: 7.1% 3 months: 4.7% 6 months: 5.1% 12 months: 4.7%

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

Yesterday @paulkrugman said he was "astonished" to see economists arguing 100% of the benefits of a gas tax holiday went to profits. I wrote that no economists had argued that but I was wrong. I found one who did: @paulkrugman in 2008.

Gas tax follies

archive.nytimes.com

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

Am I the only one who doesn't care where the wind turbines are made? I just want us to use a lot of them and the best and cheapest ones.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

You can't use one baseline (interest payments suspended) to argue this will constrain demand & then a different baseline (interest payments restored) to describe the benefits. That is incoherent, inconsistent & indefensible cherry picking--I hope the White House doesn't do it.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

Finally, it's not obvious to me that this is reasonable for a President to do unilaterally. A number of lawyers (and political leaders) have argued inconsistent with the law. Even if technically legal I don't like this amount of unilateral Presidential power.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

8 months

The inflation data from PCE--which is what the Fed focuses on--were much better for August than the CPI data. We now have three unambiguously good months in a row for core PCE. Annual rates: 1 month: 1.8% 3 months: 2.2% 6 months: 3.0% 12 months: 3.9%

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

4 years

The proposal: $1,000 checks for adults and $500 for children. Extend into 2021 and beyond if the unemployment rate rises a lot. Permanent state-level triggers to extend unemployment insurance and expand Medicaid matches. Money for paid leave and nutrition.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

1 year

Stephen Cecchetti & Kim Schoenholtz: "It is far better to do nothing, and just let crypto burn. Actively intervening would convey undeserved legitimacy upon a system that does little to support real economic activity." Maybe they're right.

Let crypto burn

Just say no to legitimacy-inferring regulation

www.ft.com

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

GameStop

M. Nolan Gray

@mnolangray

3 years

What's the "Blockbuster in 2005" equivalent for 2021? Like a ubiquitous storefront chain that won't exist in 15 years?

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

1 month

Core CPI coming in very hot for the third month in the row. The numbers are not kind to the thesis that January was a seasonal anomaly. 12 months: 3.5% 6 months: 3.2% 3 months: 4.6% 1 month: 4.6%

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

The US economy is outpacing all of the other major advanced economies--GDP was almost back to pre-pandemic forecasts by the end of last year.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

5 months

Strong jobs report across the board: --199k job (above expectations) --Unemployment rate down & participation up --Hours up --Strong wage growth

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

I can’t remember a more uniformly negative reaction to any policy announcement by both economists and financial markets than the UK’s policy today. And that is even relative to the low expectations everyone started with.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

The tax increases Senator Manchin objected to would reduce inflation. You can debate how much (some but not huge in my view) or whether they are a good way to reduce inflation (yes in my view, middle class tax increases more effective but much less fair). But the sign is clear.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

4 years

It would take ten minutes to draft the legislative language to ensure the states have the funding they need to fight the virus, help people and small businesses affected, and continue to pay their teachers. So let’s take those ten minutes and get this right now.

Ben White

@EconomyBen

4 years

I'm sure many of the critiques of the current bill are correct my point is only that there is no time for a week of debate. If Dems are going to force changes and tighten up the bailout stuff it has to happen super fast.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

3 years

Brian Deese (bonus pick): Confirmed by multiple news sources. A brilliant leader, gets the best out of everyone he works with, kind and generous, a leader in everything from autos and housing to climate and budget. Will help keep the entire team together.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 months

The world would be better off with less rethinking economics and more thinking economics.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

Not just Sri Lanka. Turkey also followed MMT pretty explicitly even if not you name. Leading MMT proponents argued that cutting interest rates would reduce inflation. Instead the interest rate cuts have unleashed an economic calamity including 80% inflation.

Catherine Rampell

@crampell

2 years

"Sri Lanka is the first country in the world to reference MMT officially as a justification for money printing."

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

Appreciate how consistently and effectively @crampell calls out this dangerous misguided nonsense.

Opinion | An inflation conspiracy theory is infecting the Democratic Party

At best, this approach has done nothing to curb inflation. Worse, it has distracted Democrats from taking actions that could help.

www.washingtonpost.com

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

If you think the baby formula shortage is a problem just wait to see what the world would look like if this became law.

Chris Conlon

@conlon_chris

2 years

New legislation on "price gouging" just dropped #econtwitter . Summary: fight inflation by making price increases illegal (Bonus: implement a strong Robinson-Patman like ban on price discrimination by large firms). 1/8

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

9 months

A year ago Fitch upgraded the US AAA credit rating outlook from "negative" to "stable". It also set out the criteria for a downgrade: 1. "Significant and sustained rise in... debt/GDP ratio." DIDN'T HAPPEN 2. "Deterioration in governance quality" HARD TO SEE MUCH CHANGE, IF…

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

Two great quotes from Paul Samuelson: "No paper of mine that is a decade old could represent my present views." "I hate to change my mind, but I hate worse to hold wrong views."

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

4 years

Faux expertise is even worse than ignorance. To the degree this crowded out input from genuine experts in the conversation and confused other participants into thinking that CEA or other economists had any sort of real or valid model of the epidemic it is really & truly terrible.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

BTW, those examples also contradict the baseline some have concocted to claim that this won't raise inflation. The claim it won't raise inflation is based on the construction worker going from permanently paying $0 interest to paying $31 a month at an annual cost of $372.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

9 months

Today's yield curve steepening is a 2.5 standard deviation event. Very rare to see something of this magnitude.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

2 years

The CPI was a pleasant surprise. Headline came in at an 5.4% annual rate in October. Core (excludes food & energy) was an 3.3% annual rate. And supercore, which also excludes shelter & used vehicles, was only 1.8% ar. Another 1 or 2 months like this and can relax a little.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

7 months

Our President Claudine Gay & school leaders have asked us to "foster... an environment of dialogue & empathy, appealing to one another’s thoughtfulness & goodwill". I hope to help. Acknowledging that killing hundreds of innocents is wrong should be an easy place to start.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

9 months

This is completely absurd. And is more likely to show that Fitch is irrelevant to the views of investors in U.S. sovereign debt than it is to show investors anything about the United States.

Michael McKee

@mckonomy

9 months

*UNITED STATES RATINGS CUT TO AA+ FROM 'AAA' BY FITCH

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

5 years

Thanks for this, I appreciate you saying it was nothing personal. I hope to work with you on one of our many shared interests sometime.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

@AOC

5 years

@dandrezner I am criticizing the rationale of saying we should trust a questioned source paper because of a standing friendship and X admin, bc neither preclude the possibility of revolving door politics - if the tweet read as though I was going after @jasonfurman specifically, I apologize.

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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

4 years

Congress should pass fiscal stimulus now that is accelerated, big, comprehensive and dynamic. I propose a specific plan that satisfies these ABCDs in my latest @wsjopinion

Opinion | The Case for a Big Coronavirus Stimulus

Congress should send you $1,000—and another $500 for each of your children—as soon as possible.

www.wsj.com

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