Tom Rees @tomelleryrees Twitter profile

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

4 months

Exclusive from us this morning. The government is quietly advancing plans for a major loosening of council budget rules to allow them to sell assets en masse to avert a wave of bankruptcies

UK May Relax Rules on Council Asset Sales to Avert Bankruptcies

UK government ministers are quietly working on a major loosening of budget rules for local councils, giving them the ability to sell assets to fund front-line services and helping to stave off a wave...

www.bloomberg.com

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

1 year

After five top years at the Telegraph, I'm v excited to have made the move to Bloomberg @business this week. I'm still covering the UK economy so please do get in touch/keep on talking to me!

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

4 months

Experts say this could reduce the number of s114 notices but also lead to perverse outcomes, such as selling the family silver. Feat @JackTShaw

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

1 year

Absolute nightmare inflation report for the Bank of England. Core and services inflation hit their highest in more than 30 years, suggesting this is moving from external energy and food shocks to more about domestically generated pressures. Markets bet on peak BOE rate of 5.5%

Alex Wickham

@alexwickham

1 year

Oh dear… UK Inflation Exceeds All Estimates as Core Prices Surge — third consecutive month that price pressures stronger than feared — worse than economists predicted — likely to fuel expectations for summer rate hikes @tomelleryrees Andrew Atkinson

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

8 months

Some of the dodgy investment decisions by councils look crazy now but they have been forced to find extra revenue because of these central gov funding cuts Read our analysis on it 👇

Sam Coates Sky

@SamCoatesSky

8 months

Want to understand what’s happening in local government? These two Bloomberg graphs tell some of the story Read: The Extraordinary Reasons Why Parts of Britain Are Going Bust

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

2 years

Was down in Tiverton this week for the big Sunday essay for the @Telegraph . MPs on both sides think the Lib Dems have a good chance of taking a fair few seats off Tories in the South but voters seem fixated on the PM issue (perhaps a short term problem) 👇

Tory heartlands in peril as Lib Dems plot to decapitate Boris Johnson's government

Liberals are poised to overturn another huge Conservative majority – is the Blue Wall crumbling?

www.telegraph.co.uk

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

8 months

Hooray! Only sixth out of the G7 economies now 🎉

Alex Wickham

@alexwickham

8 months

Good news klaxon! UK Pulled Ahead of Germany in Economic Recovery From Covid Via @tomelleryrees Andrew Atkinson >>

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

11 months

BOE decision day guide 👇 50 bp hike in play after fourth straight inflation surprise but i think it would be quite tricky to communicate (which you may have noticed is not their forte)

Zoe Schneeweiss

@ZSchneeweiss

11 months

BOE hike seen as certain after inflation shock: Decision Day Guide via @tomelleryrees

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

5 months

This is remarkable and will get far fewer column inches than HS2. Raises questions over whether BOE went overboard with QE particularly given it now thinks the effects are very state contingent

Philip Aldrick

@PhilAldrick

5 months

Dynamite stat in Michael Saunders' latest QE analysis. Ex-ratesetter says BOE money printing on track to cost taxpayers as much as entire HS2 rail project, now scaled back due to spiralling costs. Net lifetime cost of £126bn - and that's the OBR's number.

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

10 months

Most missed this today. The single month data is quite volatile but this record increase is quite eye-catching given the BOE is waiting for a loosening in jobs market

Philip Aldrick

@PhilAldrick

10 months

Could this prove to be the turning point on inflation? Spotted by @tomelleryrees in todays jobs data. A record 0.8ppt jump in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in May. Partly reversing a sharp drop in April but maybe another sign of labour market loosening

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

5 months

Today's revised figures mean it's a big fat fail on Sunak's pledge to grow the economy so far. After those Q2 and Q3 GDP downgrades, GDP is up just 0.2% when compared to the end of last year. Some heroics needed in Q4 for him to credibly claim to have made any progress on this

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

2 years

And in literally the very next line in the OBR release we get the full picture: "Once the incentive is withdrawn, investment is assumed to be lower than would otherwise have been." If temporary it will not "affect the level of investment and the capital stock in the longer term"

Rishi Sunak

@RishiSunak

2 years

The Super-Deduction is the biggest business tax cut in modern British history and today the @OBR_UK has said it is working. Business investment is now 10% higher than it would have been had the relief not have been in place.

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

5 months

ICYMI here is our interview with the new City minister where he reveals that there will be a consultation on revamping the toolkit to deal bank failures v soon after the SVB crisis. Read here 👇 via @economics

UK to Update Playbook for Bank Failures After SVB Flagged Flaws

The Treasury is poised to start a consultation to bolster the UK’s bank resolution toolkit, after the crisis at Silicon Valley Bank revealed some shortcomings, according to the City minister.

www.bloomberg.com

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

5 months

Merry Xmas everyone! The UK might be in recession after downgrade to Q3 data this morn. We warned there was a risk of this earlier this week. Fortunately inflation and rate expectations are starting to go in the right direction 👇 via @economics

UK Economy Shrinks in Third Quarter, Raising Risk of Recession

The UK economy unexpectedly shrank in the third quarter, raising the possibility that Britain is already in a recession and fueling bets on the Bank of England pivoting to interest-rate cuts as soon...

www.bloomberg.com

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

1 year

Interesting that both Haldane and the other BOE hawk at the start of the current hiking cycle (Saunders) are now both calling for caution for further rises. Big decisions ahead for Bailey & Co as the Fed and ECB stay hawkish. Read our exc w/Haldane below

Philip Aldrick

@PhilAldrick

1 year

Good interview with Andy Haldane by @tomelleryrees . Former BOE inflation hawk says MPC should move more "cautiously" now, and be prepared to take 3-4yrs to get to 2% to "make those hard yards less hard.” The hard yards being getting infl from 4% to 2%

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

2 months

Exclusive from us: BOE hands staff 4% inflation-matching pay rise. Interesting given Andrew Bailey's calls for wage restraint from workers and seems to reflect concerns over keeping staff. Read here 👇

BOE Hands Staff Inflation-Matching Pay Deal in Larger Rise

The Bank of England will hand staff a 4% pay rise plus a 1% salary top-up in an inflation-matching deal for 2024/25 as it seeks to retain staff in a competitive jobs market.

www.bloomberg.com

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

10 months

Agreed, the criticism from the likes of Mervyn King has been what's the point. But I think features like this show the potential

Dan Davies

@dsquareddigest

10 months

as I said on @trashfuturepod a while ago, the people you meet at payments industry conferences genuinely believe that programmable money features like this are fantastic and popular and everyone wants them.

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

1 year

@Hariboconomics @davidparry100 @alexwickham IMF has moved its UK forecast around a bit more than other big Western economies (though not massively so). UK forecasts perhaps a bit harder in last 12 months as it's more exposed than many to rise/fall in gas prices and nowhere else had such policy and market volatility

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

2 years

@ItsAllPolitics2 Hi, it's Tom from the Telegraph. Would you mind following me back so I can send you a message? Thanks

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

1 year

Pissarides has looked into the impact of automation on jobs more than anyone and is at the v optimistic end of ChatGPT's impact. Let's hope he's right. Read here 👇

Zoe Schneeweiss

@ZSchneeweiss

1 year

ChatGPT opens the door to the 4-day week, says Nobel prize winner Christopher Pissarides via @tomelleryrees

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

8 months

@DMcWilliams_UK It's a fair point Doug. We've taken subsequent growth rates to calculate it but of course they may (probably will) be revised!

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

1 year

Worth remembering there is another CPI release the day before the next BOE meeting in June. But hard to see such a turnaround. June hike looks sewn up now and you'd think they will have to leave the tightening bias line keeping the door open to more hikes in the meeting minutes

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

4 months

Local gov minister urges councils to drain reserves to help avert bankruptcy. Unsurprisingly it didn't go down well at LGA conference. Gov says councils have extra Covid reserves but councils don't want to break cardinal rule of using reserves for services

UK Minister Urges Councils to Drain Reserves to Avert Bankruptcy

The UK government is pressuring councils to run down their reserves to help stave off a financial crisis beginning to rip through the country’s town halls.

www.bloomberg.com

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Tom Rees

@tomelleryrees

4 months

Huw Pill at the Bank of England argues that the inflation shocks were in fact transitory, it's just we had a long, overlapping series of them that kept price growth high. No doubt this will concern the BOE that the Red Sea conflict is just the latest of these overlapping shocks

Alex Wickham

@alexwickham

4 months

First signs of UK inflation concerns returning as Red Sea crisis lifts prices… Private sector firms report the sharpest jump in costs in five months… suppliers’ delivery times lengthened for the first time in 12 months Story from @tomelleryrees >>

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