"My loyalty is to reason and as a reasonable person I reserve the right to change my mind when presented with new information that alters my perspective"
I stopped tweeting/talking like this, especially about Nigeria. Govt has been asking Nigerians to sacrifice almost all social benefits; and not a single portion of their lifestyle has changed. Remove subsidy but it's business as usual for officials to go on publicly-funded trips.
The reality is BILLIONS (Naira) are owed to Power Generation companies because our value chain LACKS APPROPRIATE PRICING
ELECTRICITY IS NOT CHEAP! Bite the bullet and face the truth!
Electricity subsidies MUST GO!
KPMG slander is the reason Nigerians don't disclose their income. Once they know how much you're worth per month, even your contribution to national discussions won't hold water.
- Everyone wants to know where the liquidity will come from.
- Since I started tracking the data, the CBN has lost its monopoly power in FX supply. The Apex bank can deceive itself all it wants, it never had the firepower to dictate FX pricing, hence the arbitrage opportunity.
Christian Orajekwe handed over infrastructure equity research to me in 2018, and I went on to cover infrastructure equity in CHD. Joined the Nig. Infrastructure Debt Fund (NIDF) later. Went to Business School and will join a $350bn AUM private infrastructure fund in Toronto.
Very fast paced environment, infrastructure deals flying so quickly in unimaginable sizes, with insane structures, complexities, and multiple currencies. I feel incredibly lucky to be here.
Very fast paced environment, infrastructure deals flying so quickly in unimaginable sizes, with insane structures, complexities, and multiple currencies. I feel incredibly lucky to be here.
I may sound hypocritical but you have to agree that we are one of the most entitled people in the world. We want subsidized everything, fuel, tertiary education, FX, electricity, housing. We can as well lie down and wait for govt to wipe our bums after toilet.
If you grew up watching Yoruba movies, you probably have seen something like
#KingofThieves
before. However, the difference is that you’re now seeing it in 2022 rather than 1997. Better technology, amazing sound tracks, and picturesque screen.
Fuel price is still 35% lower on average when compared to border countries, so at N617/litre we are not quite there yet, more will come. A socialist Buhari should’ve solved border issues & cut subsidy payment as a result of lower fuel consumption. I enunciated this view in 2021.
When they say "You will learn a lot in that firm", it doesn't mean they will sit you down and teach you like a toddler, it means they will give you so much work that you'll be forced to learn things that you wouldn't ordinarily know on your own.
The economics we studied is a science of varying schools of thought and they co-existed. But you call yourself an economist and can’t hold an argument without being rude. There isn’t one single answer to these issues and your view is certainly not the only way
- Remove all the restrictions in the FX market, including cash dom accounts & allow Naira debit card to fulfill FX obligations
- FPI may be encouraged to return to invest in Naira assets
- And as with 2017, when rates moved from of N520 to N360, we may see a stronger Naira.
Early last year, I had this conversation with Rotus. Irrespective of who the president is, subsidy removal would have been imperative for fiscal survival.
Without downplaying the influence of fundamental, Emefiele’s careless statement is actually causing problems for the Naira, hence the speculative attacks.
Check out the first episode of our podcast - MoneyRise: The Podcast - wherever you get your podcast.
In this episode, we have investment analyst
@Wahaby_Agba
talk about recent economic policies - fuel subsidy removal and Naira floating - and what they mean for you. Check it out
Throwback to our podcast episode with
@Wahaby_Agba
as he talks about investing in dollar-denominated assets during these times. Listen to the full episode wherever you get your podcast -
Anytime I tweet fuel prices in other African countries, you’ll start asking “what is their minimum wage”. Of what relevance is minimum wage in the determination of fuel price? Keep sending populist tweets.
Once your plane lifts off the ground, there is absolutely nothing you can do to save yourself. Every time I fly, at take off, I keep doing Astagarifullah in case!!!
For protesting lack of water in 2015, Unilag rusticated our leaders and made the rest of us sign indemnity not to ever protest again. Till I graduate, it was generally “fem”🤫
- As of Dec-22, autonomous FX supply delivered almost 70% of the market's total supply vs. 30% flow through the CBN.
- Thus, it is imperative for the CBN to put in place policies that will allow foreign portfolio investments (FPI) into the system
Wanted to buy a bag, budget is 50k. Went to Yaba, guy said 23k. In my mind, I said too cheap. Left and went to ICM, them say 150k. Guess who’s back in Yaba? 😂
This Naira crash is less speculative and more fundamentally driven. Even businesses with genuine demand are not able to get FX. Uncleared backlog demand is now almost $8bn. Naira analysis today is beyond checking FX reserves, you need to do proper channel checks.
Ur busy mopping up USD in parallel market without valid reason except out of panic & fear...thereby creating BUBBLE demand.
Then come to Xter to start ranting d rates are going up & insult anakysts
If ur ignorant of how Consumer PANIC buying affects pricing , go back to school
@deinyinacha
Not remotely defending the govt but tertiary education is ridiculously expensive even in places where politicians are not corrupt, they take loans to go to school and pay back over 20-30yrs period. Only in Nigeria people go through 6-6-4 education free or charge.
BUA cement to raise up to N100bn from a bond programme of N200bn. This isn't surprising, in fact, the title of my last note on the company was "capital raise is a question of when". Use of proceeds: " To refinance shareholder loan, fund debt service reserve account,
The evil thing about inflation is that, in many cases, prices don’t crash, they only rise at a slower pace. To put in proper perspective, small chops price won’t go back to N500, it will remain at N1,300 and rise slowly if inflationary pressure reduces.
@chukaobi
These are macro challenges that they definitely need to fix but those problems, unfortunately, do not exempt us from paying for a product that we do not produce.
Reading an old report from ARM, I found that one of the CBN’s FX stability tactics in 2015 was to cut trees on the street of Abuja, to expose illegal FX traders to the scotching sun 😂😂😂
- From the chart above, both the CBN and autonomous flows grew steadily, forcing the NGN to appreciate against the dollar. But the CBN led.
- The bank conducted auctions twice a week and forced everyone to participate
- This time, the CBN waited too long an FPI dried up.
- Going by the last major economic shocks, the collapse in oil prices triggered massive investment outflows, and by extension, the Naira came under intense pressure.
- Beyond devaluation, and creation of a framework for investors to trade currency, CBN also had to step up supply
@supersanusi
@dipoladapo
I know educated people who still believe in blood money, in 2020. Like a dead body will bring pile of cash in calabash in the night🤦🏾♀️😂
Market took a slight breather from Buy-Back induced rally on Dangcem today, but aggressively re-priced BUA upward. BUACEMENT is looking to add series of new lines of 3MMT in Edo, Sokoto, and Adamawa. Again, who is buying cement in Nigeria? Sector installed capacity is barely 50%
I used to be a big boy, I would watch blockbusters on the first day of release every weekend in the best cinema is Lagos. Now I’m just a poor soul converting each debit to my home currency
This is Flour Mills of Nigeria. They made only N29bn from a revenue of N1.5tn, that’s about 5% net margin. These are real companies, they’re generally called low margin businesses.
- In Q4-22, FPI was $288m, the lowest level since '16 when oil production and prices collapse brought Nigeria's economy to its knees.
- This time, the CBN must lead the supply at a rate equal to what markets dictate
- All special windows must be discontinued, including FORM A.
“Will the government utilize savings from subsidy removal on infrastructure?” is the question I typically get when I argue for subsidy be removed. This is exactly why no one trust the government of Nigeria.
Akpabio Says Money Has Been Sent To Senators For Holiday In Viral Video
In a viral video shared on Wednesday morning, the Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, revealed that money had been sent to all Senators by the clerk of the National Assembly to enjoy their holiday.
- The CBN has wasted too much of reserves on education bill abroad
- Between 2015 & 2022, we spent US$22bn on education related bills, including school fees
- In Q4-22, Nigeria services payments was US$3.13bn, 68% came from transportation (airline outflow) and education bills
Finance bros act like they are building models to invent cure to brain cancer. Most are incredibly rude people. Everybody else is foolish because they understand CBN’s balance sheet and treasury operations 😂
The question I always ask throughout my economic research time was that - “How does an interest rate hike reduce the price of garri in the market?” Raising policy rate to attract FPI is justifiable, but as a tool to rein in inflation, has never made much sense to me.
Extract from my just concluded presentation at 2023 BusinessDay CEO Forum
So Assuming Friedman”s theory for controlling money supply led inflation holds where money supply should grow at pace of GDP growth to keep inflation low then this was largely maintained on Nigeria. 1/6
"The debt issue may seem distant and abstract, especially in a year that looks positive. But the seeds of debt crisis are planted in advance, and when the crisis hits, the economy collapses"
@StearsBusiness
FGN is gradually stepping up: a 4.92x over allotment relative to offer size. At this run rate, we should see gross bond issuance totaling c.N2.06 trillion in the next 7months. Average stop rate is yet to respond though.
@konibajeooo
In Lagos, it is illegal not to put your child in school. Primary and secondary education is free. Tertiary really shouldn’t be if we’re serious about building world class centre of learnings. Govt should focus on funding R&D in universities not tertiary education for all.
Nigerian economic managers will ignore supply constraints and be chasing arbitrageurs. Flood the banks with loads of paper naira and you don’t have to arrest POS agents for charging exorbitant rents!
In dollars, Nigeria appears to have doubled its household electricity prices. We now pay more for electricity kWh than S/A, India, and Canada by 27% on average. Yet, the minimum allowable electricity for Band A is 20hr. Band A will still face blackouts for at least 120hours/month
Around January this year, on Smooth Breakfast, I remember Dele Akintola of Standard Bank predicted that NGSE will return more than 40% in 2020. His argument was built on a supportive system liquidity. NGSE is now +31.67% YTD. The salesman wasn’t wrong after all.
@sgyemikale
I spoke with a foreign asset manager who said he made so much money in 2017-19 that he felt sorry for Nigeria. Free monies of almost 22% effective rate on OMO bills with another guaranteed spread on NDF contract. The FX market has been repaired, all FPIs should do the hard work.