- As of Dec-22, autonomous FX supply delivered almost 70% of the market's total supply vs. 30% flow through the CBN. - Thus, it is imperative for the CBN to put in place policies that will allow foreign portfolio investments (FPI) into the system

- Going by the last major economic shocks, the collapse in oil prices triggered massive investment outflows, and by extension, the Naira came under intense pressure. - Beyond devaluation, and creation of a framework for investors to trade currency, CBN also had to step up supply

- From the chart above, both the CBN and autonomous flows grew steadily, forcing the NGN to appreciate against the dollar. But the CBN led. - The bank conducted auctions twice a week and forced everyone to participate - This time, the CBN waited too long an FPI dried up.

- In Q4-22, FPI was $288m, the lowest level since '16 when oil production and prices collapse brought Nigeria's economy to its knees. - This time, the CBN must lead the supply at a rate equal to what markets dictate - All special windows must be discontinued, including FORM A.

- Remove all the restrictions in the FX market, including cash dom accounts & allow Naira debit card to fulfill FX obligations - FPI may be encouraged to return to invest in Naira assets - And as with 2017, when rates moved from of N520 to N360, we may see a stronger Naira.

@Wahaby_Agba Well said Wahab

@jejelolamichael Hehe Mikolo my guy🕺🏽🙌🏽

@Wahaby_Agba Thanks for the clarity, Wahab.

@islandah Welcome boss

@Wahaby_Agba Where did you source your data from brother?

@dvtepalm CBN and NBS

@Wahaby_Agba @Nosawema Finance doesn’t cure Fx longterm. Real sector does, reducing import does expanding exports does.

@kaysgun @Nosawema You are not wrong bro, everything I said here is a short term fix. We still need to export and in fact, fix our Balance of Payments, this takes years to achieve.

@Wahaby_Agba @BigChiefDamian @threadreaderapp pls unroll

@Wahaby_Agba @threadreaderapp

@Wahaby_Agba Wahab, I don find you here. Greta analysis bri