Sam @SlBrandin Twitter profile

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Sam

@SlBrandin

9 months

The most important thing I’ve ever learned about wholesale power is that energy is a commodity, capacity is not.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

2 months

@micsolana This is more compelling evidence of him being right than actually listening to his arguments lol

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Sam

@SlBrandin

7 months

@RepSantosNY03 If you added Minions to the pic this would really do numbers on facebook

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Sam

@SlBrandin

3 months

5yrs. We will probably only appreciate the technological/industrial feats of our time in retrospect. It’s romantic to think of a future with a diverse energy mix. But it’s becoming increasingly possible that solar eats everyone’s lunch.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

1 month

@isaiah_p_taylor I honestly think people need to just be busier with meaningful work. It’s just vented heat waste. Have someone you don’t like? Have you tried not thinking about them at all?

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Sam

@SlBrandin

7 months

@DavidSacks This is absurdly insulting to Sam A

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Sam

@SlBrandin

7 months

@ronawang Must be your first time meeting people in their mid 20s

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Sam

@SlBrandin

5 months

@memecrashes When data conflicts with first principles, check your data. Forget who said that.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

4 months

@Rainmaker1973 But have you considered that he works in mysterious ways?

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Sam

@SlBrandin

6 months

@eshear If your correct intuition is informed by sound first principles, I would think that it can actually accelerate your ability to learn new things

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Sam

@SlBrandin

1 year

The understanding of power markets in this article is so bad it makes me want to defend my competitors. (Either uneducated or insincere, idk which one) Reporting that obfuscates the power market landscape doesn’t help anyone’s progress.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

2 months

I wish there was some sort of signal to help us figure out which market design is most efficient. Too bad we don’t have any :/

Jeff Davies, the Energy OG

@EnergyCredit1

2 months

Nearly 60% of all US planned capacity is in Texas

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Sam

@SlBrandin

2 months

Imagine having 2 suns and a desert climate and not having abundant electricity via solar PV. Do not let your state fumble its utilization of energy resources like Tatooine.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

1 month

What’s the cleanest and simplest explanation for why 2D (complex numbers) and 4D (quaternions) numbers exist, but not 3D numbers?

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Sam

@SlBrandin

9 months

Just going to leave this here.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

11 days

@skooookum I like how they are your “dog’s walker” Instead of the dog walker. Establishes dominance

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Sam

@SlBrandin

8 months

I often sincerely wonder how it is the case that the US gov has been powering massive floating fortresses that house 4,000 people for months on end from nuclear micro grids, with a literal 100.00% safety record… Yet we can’t figure out SMRs and new nuclear tech? Troubling

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Sam

@SlBrandin

6 months

What are the current top tier institutions pumping out talent interested in wholesale power markets? Thinking broadly across the stack here: - Grid planning/resource integration - Optimal power flow - AC steady state/transient stability - Market theory

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Sam

@SlBrandin

22 days

Well at least we know 26% isn’t real

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Sam

@SlBrandin

7 months

@marketplunger1 @compound248 Today, we are all going to learn MW vs. MWh :)

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Sam

@SlBrandin

5 months

2ΔGW Love notes from the future

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Sam

@SlBrandin

3 months

@awwstn Most unhinged part is calling the wooden box a bowl. It would’ve still been an alliteration with box! And it’s not even all berries!

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Sam

@SlBrandin

2 months

Engagement bait for energy casuals. Kids - the signal to noise ratio on X is hilariously bad. Gold and Pyrite both shine bright here.

Pendulum Flow

@PendulumFlow

2 months

Electricity markets are 🤪... imagine a race where the person who comes last sets the prize for all. Wait. What? 🤔 Yep, that's the reality behind your electricity bill. Let's dive into the odd world of wholesale electricity prices and a concept called Merit Order. 🏃‍♂️💡

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Sam

@SlBrandin

3 months

Current state now that I’m a data peasant @grid_status

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Sam

@SlBrandin

7 months

@ronawang Welcome, don’t mind the existential dread, we’ll all be alright

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Sam

@SlBrandin

6 months

@jmrphy If you’re a working class person that ever enters social circles with these types of folks born into the p95, you will be truly baffled by the things that they care about. Kind of a weight off the shoulders honestly (like the OP suggests)

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Sam

@SlBrandin

9 months

My heart goes out to whoever develops the ERCOT Dashboard The deliverable is an extremely sharp and informative tool, but it’s purpose is to equip tourists with datapoints they don’t understand so they can sling mud at institutions they don’t understand (ERCOT/power rite large)

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Sam

@SlBrandin

2 months

My favorite people on X are the zealots that talk wild amounts of shit about conventional gen then go work on a 10MW project coming online in 2029

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Sam

@SlBrandin

2 months

Gas plants get the “you die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become a villain” treatment. One of the single largest drivers of reduced sector emissions since the ‘05 peak and now it’s caught in the political binary. Gas gave consumers 2 decades of affordable power yall

Canary Media

@CanaryMediaInc

2 months

THIS. IS. MARCH. It all comes down to this! The #3 team is facing off with the bracket-buster #16 team for the Canary Media March Madness Championship. 🗳️ Vote!! ⬇️ Learn more about our teams here:

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Sam

@SlBrandin

9 months

You may not like it, but this is what peak interconnection process looks like.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

7 months

@Duderichy This is what tiktok advice has done to peoples reasoning

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Sam

@SlBrandin

1 year

@CestrianInc @qcapital2020 “Mistaking high beta for alpha” should be the title of the ZIRP chapter in fin history

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Sam

@SlBrandin

8 months

This is just compounding misunderstanding of LCOE with inaccurate uses of LCOE. We get sooooo wrapped around the axel on this topic because LCOE implies you’re fixing the use-case as constant. You’re looking at an analysis which is locked to the cross section (2D) of a

egg

@egreghost

8 months

Are renewables exponentially becoming cheaper? Perspective from an engineer who has worked in interconnection🪡 I often see this take from tpot types vs electric professionals on Twitter. I’m not here to argue renewables are bad, not worth pursuing, or emissions don’t matter…

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Sam

@SlBrandin

2 months

Obviously gas isn’t going away anytime soon (but its role will absolutely adapt). I guess the lesson here is that the way the public thinks about energy is completely divorced from the reality of the industry. Being pragmatic gets you 100x closer to your ideals than being

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Sam

@SlBrandin

10 months

The ERCOT market does the world a great service by providing a window seat to the risks and opportunities which will emerge in all power markets as the supply stack evolves. ERCOT is the power market of the future dreaming of itself.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

26 days

@TheStalwart Variance erodes continuously compounded returns

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Sam

@SlBrandin

1 month

Deep love and admiration for the talented people I’ve gotten to work with in this biz 🤘🏼

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Sam

@SlBrandin

2 months

This is a capacity market (🙂), just not a Capacity Market (☹️). As Craig says, the missing money just shows up in the exact hour and profiles of need, rather than inefficiently imposed on all consumers as an annual ratchet based on a theoretical/perceived contribution to

Craig Lawrence

@clawrence

2 months

Market functioning as designed. If you don’t want price spikes, put in a capacity market and pay more for power all the time. Or, enjoy cheap power most of the time punctuated by price spikes, and maybe outages.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

5 months

@growing_daniel Trains are 1 dimension travel Cars are 2 dimension travel Planes are 3 dimension travel We need 4D travel to increase capacity not 1D!

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Sam

@SlBrandin

1 year

Disclaimer: I don’t think crypto or BTC has any fundamental value, sorry y’all. With that said, I very much think you’re entitled to free market competition and staking your own capital to prove others wrong. Anyways, see you on the battlefield.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

8 months

Low LCOE does not imply the energy is useful. High LCOE doesn’t imply the energy is useless!

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Sam

@SlBrandin

3 months

Officially left my job last week. More excited about the power infrastructure industry and the value we can deliver to the world than ever before :) Top of highlands bowl, happy Wednesday.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

1 month

@jacob_mays @ConnorWaldoch @wing13nut @TermPowerTrader I’m not currently active in PJM atm, so this is a bit of armchair quarterbacking (and happy to be called out for missing nuance accordingly), but generally speaking the function of capacity RA designs is to increase “liquidity” of new capacity entering the market by resolving

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Sam

@SlBrandin

7 months

@ronawang Sounds like all the rationale they need to quit the job and never look back. They are doing that person a favor if true

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Sam

@SlBrandin

1 month

@JohnArnoldFndtn Also worth mentioning that nothing was cancelled. Just spread to every current and future American citizen instead… there some sort of irony in the lack of financial education and the cancelling of student debt… sigh

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Sam

@SlBrandin

1 year

@BillAckman

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Sam

@SlBrandin

4 months

From someone who isn’t pro crypto: Crypto load has a right to access the grid and consume electricity as they please. Any “reliability concern” which emerges from that is a flaw of the system, not the participant If you built the assets and post collateral, welcome to the rodeo

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Sam

@SlBrandin

3 months

Hate to be that guy, but if someone is able to pull off something as hilariously stupid as the MISO DR thing, perhaps it’s a symptom of the market design.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

2 months

If the scope and conviction of this demand is anywhere close to real, then it has the potential to reduce costs for the average retail consumer while enabling one of the most exciting times in modern history for wholesale grid expansion and economic opportunity 🇺🇸

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Sam

@SlBrandin

7 months

@Empty_America This just made me realize how good the standard of living is in developed countries if we are arguing that this is abusive

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Sam

@SlBrandin

1 year

ERCOT might be the only market where a public conservation request actually increases swing risk for REPs lol

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Sam

@SlBrandin

3 months

Lmao I love when engineers are so confidently incorrect about economics and market function 😆

Pendulum Flow

@PendulumFlow

3 months

Why batteries can't fix the issues with renewable energy 🪫💔 Let's think this through... 🤔 Arbitrage extracts value (buying low and selling high). It doesn't create value. Who pays for the value that is extracted? Arbitrage can only close to the point where the gap = cost

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Sam

@SlBrandin

11 months

The solution to ERCOT market price spikes is ERCOT market price spikes. 🔃🔃🔃🔃🔃🔃🔃🔃🔃🔃🔃

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Sam

@SlBrandin

8 months

What is happening in ERCOT right now?…

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Sam

@SlBrandin

7 months

All LSE for the foreseeable future: “Our demand forecast for 2030 is 100GW we got to this number by taking our current peak demand and multiplying by 5 See attached for our fundamental bottom-up analysis”

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Sam

@SlBrandin

6 months

“No model is right but some are helpful” needs to be hammered into every single person to ever touch a fin model. It’s not about absolute figures, it’s about understanding how the system changes with a nudge to any 1 variable.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

22 days

The more I love power markets the less I love any individual resource

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Sam

@SlBrandin

3 months

Which load class do you believe will best materialize relative to their current hype? 1. EVs 2. Electrification 3. Crypto 4. AI/datacenter compute 5. Re-Industrialization/manufacturing 6. Hydrogen (Feel free to add a category I missed)

Connor Waldoch

@ConnorWaldoch

3 months

Something people forget (or don't know???) is that PJM's 2013 peak summer load forecast could have exceeded the highest values 2024's explosive report shows since all of the peak demand days in PJM are old, they anchored much higher to start and assumed a faster rate of increase

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Sam

@SlBrandin

5 months

I wonder how many future grid disasters will be avoided in ERCOT due to Winter Storm Uri

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Sam

@SlBrandin

7 months

We become very 1 dimensional when we discuss resolving tail cases for energy systems. Saying solar, wind, storage, nuclear, gas, elastic demand, etc can’t contribute to solving reliability events (Elliot/Uri) because they don’t solve the whole story, is like saying you

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Sam

@SlBrandin

3 months

@rmcentush Counterpoint: There has not been a US commercial aviation death in the last 15 years. ‘09 since last death, even further back for something due to mechanical failure. Actually unfathomably safe given ~45k daily flights.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

8 months

Happy Friday

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Sam

@SlBrandin

2 months

All of this discourse around uncertainty in future supply stack is exactly the reason why ratepayers should never be on the hook for equity investments in the supply stack It’s nonsensical to opine on what “should” get built without any capital at risk or skin in the game

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Sam

@SlBrandin

2 months

So much of our desire for clean energy, low cost, reliability/resilience, quick market evolution, and demand flexibility would emerge from the simple act of imposing retail competition and scarcity pricing We have had the right tools for decades

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Sam

@SlBrandin

1 month

Don’t have a sense of how small transistors are? The lithography techniques used in ASML systems today could etch 2 transistors on a single SARS-CoV-2 virus

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Sam

@SlBrandin

9 months

@WWWWWWMMMWWWWWW “Net Load” is real time load less all wind and solar generation (all intermittent resources). The “net” load left over represents the average load profile for conventional generating resources to manage. The net load peak is getting later and sharper because of growth in Solar MW

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Sam

@SlBrandin

2 months

All this compute is just chomping at the bit to provide flexibility/demand response service to the grid! 😄 Anytime the AI/DL complex brings up nuclear as their solution to power demand, I’m inclined to think they plan to use every last MWh available to them

Kourosh

@kouroshshafi

2 months

corweave sold out of capacity this year

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Sam

@SlBrandin

1 month

If you’re finance, math, commodities, or real estate and want to learn more about the front lines, feel free to reach out

Joshua D. Rhodes

@joshdr83

1 month

I might be (am) biased, but I'd say that the electricity industry is no longer boring. If you want to make a real difference in getting to a cleaner future, we need lots of people who know how the system works to join the ranks!

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Sam

@SlBrandin

7 months

@mikeharrisNY @RonaldLagnado @Stefano_Peron Regardless of coined term, understanding the divergence of geometric and arithmetic averages is still an exercise not widely understood, even in financial markets. But that’s probably due to the fact that a fundamental understanding of what e (and exp) represent is not really

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Sam

@SlBrandin

8 months

2023: isn’t this neat? 2030: we must destroy the moon for our energy salvation

ERCOT

@ERCOT_ISO

8 months

An annular solar eclipse will pass over the ERCOT region on Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, impacting solar generation between 10:15 a.m. and 1:45 p.m. CDT. ERCOT has planned for this forecasted reduced generation and expects grid conditions to be normal. You can monitor current and

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Sam

@SlBrandin

1 year

When I say ERCOT needs to value capacity explicitly, for the love of god I do not mean a conventional “Capacity Market”, I mean we need hourly dynamic volume and price for capacity services (seasonal reserves, diurnal reserves (non spin), 10 min spin, FR, PFR) in the DAM/RTM.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

5 months

@wanyeburkett The thing most people have wrong on this problem is the objective. The objective of infra investment isn’t to have a more pleasurable driving experience, it’s to get more people from A to B. Induced demand from public benefit is a good thing for society, like in your example.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

1 month

You know what’s cool about ES bidding logic in power markets? In the mid term future, ISOs will be able to create a sort of proxy price forecast by aggregating the bidding behavior of energy storage assets. With some manipulation regarding asset durations and other price

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Sam

@SlBrandin

2 months

Periodically I feel compelled to emphasize the fact that I have deep seated respect and admiration for the dedicated people of wholesale power who move the industry forward, regardless of if we completely agree or if you hate every opinion I have. Strong, informed, pragmatic,

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Sam

@SlBrandin

3 months

ISONE dynamics are a great way to demonstrate empirically how periods of expensive energy do not necessarily need to correlate with periods of capacity scarcity Helps reveal the two distinct risks, as well as the pricing mechanisms to manage accordingly

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Sam

@SlBrandin

4 months

@SylvainRGignac The ability to package the topic into “bear riding bicycle” gives me hope that the message about the need for grid forming tech will get through.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

7 months

An often misunderstood element of marginal pricing is that the price doesn’t reflect the market value of the “average” MWh served in that interval, just the “marginal” (aka “the next”) MWh. Marginal prices only tell you the value of energy *relative* to the current assumptions

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Sam

@SlBrandin

9 months

What ERCOT market participants fail to consider is that energy storage is in the arena, trying stuff. Some will work, some won’t. But always learning.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

2 months

Demand sets the price given its inelastic. The real EVIL market manipulation is the gen that was never built such that the SINISTER capacity resources of storage have to serve the load 😖 Kids, the signal to noise ratio on X is so so so bad.

ERCOT Traders Anon

@ERCOTAnon

2 months

@grid_status Batteries were most definitely setting the price. The energy pricing predators of the early 2000s did not in fact go extinct but have been reincarnated.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

8 months

How far will CAISO take this hourly RA construct until they realize they accidentally invented ORDC again?

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Sam

@SlBrandin

9 months

@INArteCarloDoss “I don’t think about you at all” Blocks* Makes post of screenshot from their post and claims you don’t think about them at all* 😐😐😐

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Sam

@SlBrandin

3 months

I love this chart because it helps close the fundamental mind gap for most people. The first property of money is a store of value, that value is the right to covert energy to work. To have “wealth” is to dictate how large quantities of energy are converted into work.

sucks

@powerbottomdad1

3 months

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Sam

@SlBrandin

28 days

We over complicate the nuclear story. Nukes don’t have the absurd legal/regulatory regime today “just because” What is the fat tail consequence of solar/wind/gas? It doesn’t work What is the fat tail consequence of nuclear? Everyone dies It’s essentially option pricing on

Christian Keil

@pronounced_kyle

28 days

Humanity has only ever built ~700 nuclear reactors. That's why.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

14 days

@JesseJenkins by 2028? 100GW by 2032? Every asset is replaced by batteries. Oh you think we need more Tx? Batteries. Dx? Batteries. You cut into your birthday cake? Batteries.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

6 months

Man these questions around ECRS and what is the primary driver of cost are really challenging and complicated. Too bad we will never know the base culprit. If only we could use first principles & data to support and validate our confusions… if only 🥲 *december ‘23 incomplete

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Sam

@SlBrandin

5 months

@whstancil It’s a theory of mind issue, you’re not going to change the hopelessly lost here with logic.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

3 months

@chrispydog I think this will continue to be proven to be an antiquated belief. The marginal price curve is only steady for extremely small nudges to the underlying variables.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

7 months

@simonsarris “The universe has not presented me with the opportunity” type-thinking will prevent you from presenting the opportunity to the universe

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Sam

@SlBrandin

7 months

“Is storage a generator?” is the “is simulation theory real?” question of the energy industry. The only correct answer is: who the f cares?

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Sam

@SlBrandin

4 months

The storage cannabalization question is a really useful topic to reveal how much someone understands the end-to-end value proposition for storage as well as the whys/hows of commodity market function.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

11 months

@mandhana_abhi

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Sam

@SlBrandin

5 months

@angryfermion Did Newton pay you to write this tweet

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Sam

@SlBrandin

2 months

FWIW Market monitors (MM) don’t know what the price of the market “should be”, they are there to ensure the market is “competitive”. Competition implies participants are making bidding decisions under their own best guess rather than KNOWING they cornered the market and therefor

Jacob Mays

@jacob_mays

2 months

Why don’t market monitors develop their own view on opportunity cost and mitigate to, e.g., ten percent higher. Wouldn’t this be consistent with how they treat thermal generators?

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Sam

@SlBrandin

3 months

@BasedBeffJezos I don’t think you understand, on this platform you’re supposed to belittle lex’s content for no reason

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Sam

@SlBrandin

8 months

So long as you have zero understanding of rates and financial markets in general, this makes perfect sense.

Brian Gitt

@BrianGitt

8 months

Investors pull the plug on renewable energy. Solar & wind stocks are down nearly 40% this year. Traditional energy is up 8%.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

3 months

The biggest mistake routinely made in the current energy chapter is the notion of co-located energy storage with generating resources.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

4 months

@anniierau

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Sam

@SlBrandin

9 months

A governing principle of AS volume and SCED logic must be that MW are always held available based on ramp speed The different tranches of reserves should be bootstrapped (in volumes procured and SCED dispatch) such that we always maintain a robust contingency response 🧵

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Sam

@SlBrandin

2 months

I’m optimistic that the yet to be born future generations will study this period and be rather disgusted with our narcissistic lack of courage driven by bad leadership The ability to do work is only worth anything if you can direct it to uses which makes others better off

Peter Mallouk

@PeterMallouk

2 months

The most depressing charts involving money that I have ever seen.

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Sam

@SlBrandin

11 months

The demand response value proposition is really simple and easy to understand: You just pay the demand to act as supply so it can use its flexibility for services which only exist because demand is deemed inflexible.

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