Macro-energy systems engineering, optimization, and policy. Prof.
@EPrinceton
(MAE) &
@AndlingerCenter
. Leads ZERO Lab. Co-host SHIFT KEY pod. More at link 👇
Wow: Shift Key, the podcast I co-host with
@robinsonmeyer
on the shift away from fossil fuels is now
#1
in Apple Podcasts' rankings for US Business News!! If you haven't listened yet, find out why Shift Key is rising to the top of the charts here:
Yikes. Just had an electrician over to install 240V outlet for Lvl 2 EV charger. He gave me an EARFUL about how overworked electricians are & how FEW people are coming into the trade behind his generation (he's mid-50s). Real bottleneck. Need to train an army of new electricians!
It's 2010. Dems failed to pass a cap & trade bill w/58 vote Senate majority. They lose 6 Senate seats + 68 House.
It's 2022. Dems pass an investment-centric climate bill in a 50/50 Senate. It is impervious to GOP attack. Ds hold Senate (gain +1?) & lose minimal House seats. 🤯
The Inflation Reduction Act has been US Law for but one day and I've already:
1. Heard from one state legislative leader planning to radically accelerate the state's timeline to 100% carbon-free electricity given how much more affordable those goals now are, and...
Main story continues to be the failure of thermal power plants -- natural gas, coal, and nuclear plants -- which ERCOT counts on to be there when needed. They've failed. Of about 70,000 MW of thermal plants in ERCOT, ~25-30,000 MW have been out since Sunday night. Huge problem.
Morning. The
#TexasFreeze
continues & grid operator ERCOT is still reporting >31,000 MW of thermal generation capacity out as of 9AM CT. Down slightly from a peak of 34,000 MW reported yesterday afternoon () but still >40% of thermal capacity in state!
Whenever I talk about EVs, someone always asks "what about emissions from battery production & minerals?" Turns out: upstream emissions associated with producing gasoline for an ICE vehicle are larger than those 'embedded' in minerals and battery production for an EV. ⤵️
ERCOT spokesperson confirms that wind turbine freeze ups are "the least significant factor" in the outages, which is confirmed by the data I've been sharing on the
#TexasFreeze
#TexasBlackout
. Failures at gas, coal & nuclear units are main story here. ⤵️
It's confirmed: The blackouts in Texas are primarily because of frozen instruments at gas, coal and nuclear plants -- as well limited supplies of gas, according to Ercot.
Frozen wind turbines were the least significant factor.
Just hugged my 4y.o. tight w/tears of joy in my eyes, tried to explain what this means. 😁🥹 This makes EVERYTHING easier from here. We have a REAL shot now to preserve so much for him, his little brother & their generation. They'll finish the job w/the tools this helps build!♥️
Norway has nearly completed transition to plug-in vehicles. 87% of new car registrations were battery electric and another 10.7% were plug-in hybrids. Just 2.3% of vehicles sold at pure internal combustion engine. This is the way.
P.S. Numbers for September just released, and 87% of new car registrations were battery electric.
Only 2.3% didn't have an electric motor (pure petrol or diesel internal combustion engine).
More details:
Fun fact: There were 1,280 gigawatts of clean power projects stuck waiting in queues to connect to the grid as of the end of 2022.
If 50% of those were built, that would be all the new capacity needed to cut US GHGs to 50% of peak levels by 2030 & be on path to net-zero by 2050.
Confidential info from a market participant in ERCOT: As of ~10 AM Eastern time, the system has ~30 GW of capacity offline, ~26 GW of thermal -- mostly natural gas which cant get fuel deliveries which are being priorities for heating loads -- and ~4 GW of wind due to icing.
Important update on Texas's electricity situation: ERCOT system operator is implementating rolling blackouts as capacity is insufficient to meet new record demand of 69,150 MW set late Sunday, >3,200 MW higher than previous record set in 2018. This IS now an emergency situation.
Those of you who have heard that frozen wind turbines are to blame for this, think again. The extreme demand and thermal power plant outages are the principle cause.
Wind & solar have variously over & under-performed the ~6,200 MW ERCOT was planning for from these resources.
In short, ALL generation types are getting hammered.
This is an equal opportunity "clusterfuzzle" as
@gmbutts
put it. So put aside your technology favoratism and tech tribalism for today please!
Only 5% or plastics in the US is recycled, and the peak was never higher than 10% (in 2014)
Stamping plastics with those little recycling arrows was a deliberate marketing scam, as detailed by
@planetmoney
reporting here
SCOTUS decision on WV v EPA is out. Im actually breathing a sigh of relief. In what may be best of plausible outcomes, a radical SCOTUS that has been tearing up precedent all term left EPA’s authority to regulate climate-warming gases intact, though more narrowly constrained.
Subtle/under-appreciated detail of the new & used EV tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act: credits can now be transferred to the dealer at point of sale, which means you get $$ off the purchase price, instead of having to wait until you file taxes next April.
A new report from
@CreditSuisse
says the
#InflationReductionAct
is an even bigger deal for the U.S. economy than Congress (or CBO) thinks, and is likely to spur explosive growth in American clean energy industries.
@robinsonmeyer
has the details
The massive
#TexasBlackouts
are the result of a failure to insure against extreme weather. In today's
@nytimes
, I explain what went wrong & the lessons from the
#TexasFreeze
on how to future proof America's power grid for a climate changed & still changing
This is big big news. Four of the world’s largest automakers, Ford, Honda, VW & BMW, reach deal with California to reach 51 miles per gallon fuel economy standard by 2026, in direct rejection of Trump Admin's weakened federal vehicle emissions rules
I can't think of a single policy priority today that would more effectively address economic insecurity, inequality, and climate change all at once than a major effort to build more (and denser) housing in America.
If you’ve read about electric vehicles in the news lately, you know the vibes are all bad. The media has fixated on the idea that consumer demand for EVs is “slowing." But the data shows that just not true, as I explain in a new
@Heatmap
column
In the year since the
#InflationReductionAct
became law, 51 US solar factories have been announced or expanded, $20B of investment, including: 85 GW of solar panel capacity, 43 GW of cells, 20 GW of silicon ingots & wafers, & 7 GW of inverter capacity!
New battery from market leader CATL (35% global market share) reaches energy density of 255 Watt-hours/kg, said to enable 1,000 km (621 mile) range & fast charge to 80% (~500 miles range) in 10 mins. Range anxiety? What range anxiety. Mass production 2023.
Incredibly frustrating to see enviro groups who allegedly see climate change as a "crisis" regularly & actively opposing solutions. NY has 1 of most aggressive decarbonization timelines in the nation & this line is key to those plans. Offshore wind is supplement NOT alternative.
Environmental groups that retired Indian Point nuclear now tell NY regulators to reject a proposed underground transmission line that would carry clean hydropower from Hydro-Québec to fossil fueled city.
Alternative proposed is offshore wind
@tedfertik
Electrification is just more efficient!
Induction: ~3x more efficient than gas range (.)
EV: >4x more efficient than internal combustion engine (tank/battery to wheels)
Heat pump: ~3-4x more efficient than a boiler (HSPF 10-14 )
So in sum, total thermal generation outages of 25,000-30,000+ MW during the past 36 hours are more than DOUBLE what ERCOT considered an "Extreme Generation Outages During Extreme Peak Load" event! That is where the disaster is stemming from. (Wind underperformance is secondary).
A breakthrough moment: America's first enhanced geothermal energy facility is now producing power! Congrats to
@FervoEnergy
for getting this 3.5 MW first-of-a-kind plant up & running in NV Advanced geothermal has enormous potential
It's out! REPEAT Project's analysis of the climate & energy impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act nearing a vote in the Senate at .
The Act would:
1. Cut annual emissions in 2030 by an additional ~1 billion tons below current policy (incl. Infrastr Law)
But... but... the minerals!
Clean energy really is just cleaner, even accounting for greenhouse gas emissions from across the lifecycle. Minerals production and refining and all. Study after study confirms. A nice summary here from
@IEA
How much cleaner are the clean energy technologies such as renewables, electric cars, heat pumps, and hydrogen compared to the dominant technologies?
Significantly. Here’s a neat summary graph from
@IEA
’s Energy Technology Perspectives 2023.
"Every year, the world’s five largest publicly owned oil and gas companies spend approximately $200 million on lobbying designed to control, delay or block binding climate-motivated policy."
Three major environmental groups just filed a motion to stop California from relicensing its last nuclear power plant.
The groups say Diablo Canyon, which provides ~10% of the state's electricity, is "unnecessary" for California's energy supply.
In the past two weeks, I think EVERY media outlet has written a story w/headlines like "EV sales are slowing" or "automakers are pulling back" from EVs. All present recent developments as a major setback. But are they? Are they really slowing? Is this 'red alert' moment? A 🧵...
That's a basic summary of what's going on right now. Conditions are still bad in Texas. Last night was frigid and I've seen many reports of interior temps reaching the 40s in people's homes. That's terrible and can be deadly. We don't know the full toll of this emergency yet.
Folks. We're going to need nuclear power (fission or even fusion) to decarbonize the global economy. Nations like US, Canada, Australia, China etc blessed with land can drive to net-zero with renewables only IF they so choose. But a Net-zero India? South Korea? Japan? Indonesia?
So, I've been keeping a secret...
I had the honor to join the one and only
@jonstewart
to chat all things
#Energy
and
#ClimateChange
for the latest episode of
@TheProblem
with Jon Stewart.
Thursday on Apple TV+!
This is exactly what I mean when I've said our modeling likely underestimates the impact passing Ira will have, because it makes it cheaper & easier at all levels -- from local & state govts to corporate leaders & executive agencies -- to significantly increase their ambitions!
Dearest
#EnergyTwitter
, I have some big, exciting news:
Starting Sept. 1, I will become an assistant professor
@Princeton
University with a dual appointment
@AndlingerCenter
for Energy & Environment (headed by
@Loo_Group
) and the Dept of Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering!
ITS DONE!! THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT HAS PASSED the nigh-impossible hurdle of the US Senate.
This literally changes everything!
What an historic moment. What a reversal of fortunes. Back from the brink of failure just 3 weeks ago. SO GRATEFUL for all who made this happen 🙏
What impact will the
#InflationReductionAct
the Senate is debating today have on the United State's climate and energy future? See our preliminary analysis of the bill. Thread 👇
So what is leading to widespread and long-lasting electricity outages in Texas?
1. Total electricity demand was ~3,000 MW over the "Extreme Peak Load" scenario ERCOT planned for.
2. Thermal power plant outages were 10,000-16,000 MW over the "Extreme Generator Outages" scenario.
2. A leader at one of the largest companies in the world rethinking how they can best redeploy their efforts to keep pushing the envelope beyond the accelerated decarbonization trajectory the bill sets us on.
That's $1.63 trillion over ten years that the top 1 percent of wealthiest Americans are effectively stealing from all the rest of us. And it could pay for about half of the entire $3.5 trillion, 10 year budget proposed by Democrats to tackle inequality and climate change.
REPEAT Project gave
@nytimes
a sneak peak at our preliminary modeling of the Senate Inflation Reduction Act to detail how the
#climate
package would reduce US emissions to ~41% below peak levels:
Stay tuned Wed for our new report at
In sum: ERCOT official reports show 29 GW of thermal capacity (TotalResourceMW) still offline now, with wind and solar (TotalIRRMW) producing at or above planned capacity contribution.
Reports are posted hourly here
This is an historic moment: California, the world's 5th largest economy and home to 1 in 10 Americans, just passed legislation requiring a completely carbon-free electricity supply by 2045. Ambitious, ends-focused, and technology-inclusive. Bravo.
#sb100
Wind power is currently producing about 4,000 MW, or 2/3 of the ~6,000 MW that ERCOT was counting on wind to contribute during winter peaking events. Solar is coming online now and helping during daytime, exceeding the <300 MW it is counted on for in system planning.
Largest-ever wind project off U.S. shores just got a green light
"Orsted projects that Ocean Wind 1 will deliver 1,100 megawatts of energy from up to 98 GE Haliade-X wind turbines placed approximately 15 miles off the coast of southern New Jersey. "
Gas range is out and our induction range is in! Bye bye to polluting gas in our kitchen. 👋 I just tested the stovetop and it heats our cast iron griddle INSTANTLY. Works with nearly all of our existing pots/pans.
@alishafowler
and I are looking forward to cooking with this soon!
Last week, my fam said goodbye to gas stations and made the big switch to electric: we purchased a Mustang Mach-E! It's a true pleasure to drive so far. But several folks asked when I shared the news last week: what does it mean for your fuel costs and CO2 emissions? A thread...
.
@GM
is going to install as many as 40,000 EV chargers in mostly rural parts of America. Level 2 chargers, not rapid DC chargers, but focused on places people will already be parked for 2+ hours. And I must add: Inflation Reduction Act subsidizes this too!
This is THE BEST explainer yet of what the clean energy and
#ClimateAction
package in the
#InflationReductionAct
is trying to do and how it does it!
Bravo
@hankgreen
. Really well done. 👏
Please watch and share, y'all.
The
@EzraKlein
Show has long been my favorite podcast. So I was honored and excited to join Ezra for this episode to talk about how to decarbonize the world and how the Inflation Reduction Act helps put us on path to our climate goals. I hope you enjoy:
GoldmanSachs expects EV battery costs to fall 40% by 2025 (from 2022 cost), helping slash costs of building EVs. Dropping cost of battery pack from $165/kWh in 2022 to $99/kWh in 2025 cuts cost to produce an EV w/ 50-100 kWh pack by $3300-$6600/vehicle.
7-Eleven is launching an EV rapid charger network. "The goal is for 7Charge to be one of North America’s largest & most compatible EV fast-charging networks." Starbucks, Walmart, Taco Bell, Ikea & Subway among other ubiquitous chains investing in chargers.
I'm really glad I'm on Twitter so people can remind me on the regular that the sun sometimes goes down and there's a thing called clouds. Really important to factor that into my thinking and research about energy systems. Thanks everyone.
.
@Sen_JoeManchin
is reportedly walking away from the energy package he helped craft over the past 6 months. If
@SenateDems
pass a FY22 budget bill without this energy package, it'll do enormous damage to the industries & communities Sen. Manchin says he cares about. Here's how.🧵
THE
#InflationReductionAct
IS THE LAW!!
The Ayes have it! Below marks the moment the full financial might of the federal government aligns behind the clean energy transition.
This bill does NOT finish the work. It just makes ALL of it easier from here. That's game-changing.
As we await final passage of the
#InflationReductionAct
in the House this afternoon, published an update to our preliminary analysis of the Act. New:
-Oil & gas consumption declines
-Avoided deaths from pollution
-Employment in energy supply sectors
@paulkrugman
That's exactly right Paul. We estimate the Inflation Reduction Act delivers about 80% of the cumulative emissions reductions over the decade that Build Back Better would have. And it makes everything that follows easier That's a BFD indeed! Historic.
It is a mind boggling failure that N95 masks are not widely available, for free, to every American who needs them. We're now six months in to full on pandemic and we had advance warning. This, like so many failures, is on Donald J. Trump.
Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. Or face? The Texas Senate passes a law that would shackle the state's first-in-nation wind & solar industries, sacrificing tens of billions of investment and energy cost savings. Totally nuts.
Hello World.
Im so happy to introduce you all to GenX, a free open source optimization model for investment planning in the power sector, developed by the
@MITEnergy
Initiative &
@Princeton
ZERO Lab!!
Beta v1.0.0 out now!
Biden Administration and 25 governors representing 60% of the U.S. economy and 55% of the country’s population pledged Thursday to quadruple the number of heat pumps in U.S. homes by 2030, from 4.7 million to 20 million.
What is this
@nytimes
Daily?? Today's episode is everything that makes me frustrated w/state of journalism: pure vibes based reporting that's contrary to actual data and overtly politicized framing as "Biden's electric car problem." Sloppy and uninformative. Do better. Thanks.
NYTimes podcast pushing the bad vibes EV narrative, and yet 14 mins in they admit EV sales continues to grow, and we will pass $1 million sales this year for the first time. And EV leases WAY up to capture the tax credit.
Plug-in vehicles have basically achieved full penetration in Norway, at ~90% sales share, with fully electric vehicles at >80%. That's where California standards want to get a decade from now. 'The future has arrived, it's just not evenly distributed yet'
One year ago today, the Inflation Reduction Act became law, throwing the financial might of the federal government behind the clean energy transition & forever changing the climate fight. And I dont think enough people appreciate JUST HOW CLOSE WE WERE TO LOSING IT ALLl! A 🧵...
It looks like the US isnt the only country long struggling to pass a climate bill that's suddenly making progress: Australia's House just passed a bill that will require emissions to fall to at least 43% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net zero by 2050:
Since Trump took office,
@NRDC
has sued the Admin >90 times to block environmental rollbacks. 53 of those cases have been resolved & NRDC won 49 (92% success).
@Earthjustice
has sued 120 times & won 16 of 17 cases that have been resolved (94%).
💪👏🌍👏💪
At times, wind + solar output was ~4,000-5,000 MW below what ERCOT was counting on them form, and that certainly is part of the story, but much smaller than the total thermal capacity outages, and also less prolonged. Much of the past 36 hours, wind+solar has exceeded 6,200 MW.
In sheer numbers, natural gas-fired units are largest thermal capacity in Texas, accounting for ~56,000 MW or 66% of total capacity ERCOT was planning to have available during winter peaking events. The large majority of outages during this event are also at gas-fired plants.
Throughout Monday, many thermal power plants remained offline, as freeze-offs + fuel shortages in gas pipelines forced large numbers of natural gas plants offline. Many coal plants likely struggled as well w/frozen coal piles, but breakdown of thermal outages by fuel type unclear
"A small group of researchers
@Princeton
University has played an outsized role in figuring out where [federal clean energy spending] should go & what its impact could be." Thanks
@pattersonscott
for this flattering
@WSJ
profile of ZERO Lab & REPEAT!
For context: at the beginning of 2021, installed battery capacity in California was a rounding error. Now it's cranking out the equivalent power output as six nuclear reactors when grid operators and markets call. That happened fast (and a lot more to come!)
Two things happened on the
@California_ISO
grid last night.
1) Battery storage discharge went over 6GW for the
first time
AND
2) Batteries were the largest source of supply.
I know neither election is all about climate. It never is. But the contrast above is remarkable. The fact that GOP didn't even ATTEMPT to attack IRA, even though it passed w/0 R votes right before midterms, speaks volumes to political durability of this approach to climate policy
Holy cow! Kia launches its new EV5 compact SUV, sized to compete with Tesla Y (and Mustang Mach-E, VW ID.4), in China at surprisingly low $20,000 starting price! If they could offer in US at anything close to that (say ~$28k), it would sell like hot cakes.
Germany is weighing whether to extend the life-span of its remaining nuclear power plants as a way to secure the country's energy supply in the face of uncertainty over Russian gas supplies, the country's economy minister said today. Fast moving situation.
I know this is unpopular in Germany, but so is watching Russia invade Ukraine while continuing to buy Russian gas, right? Reverting & delaying nuclear phase-out for a few years could be part of an overall war-time footing to win European independence of Russian energy imports...
We don't need hot takes on WV v EPA. I need the correct takes. As folks with legal expertise digest the ruling, please post the best analysis you've seen in reply here. And lawyers: take your time.
I read the entire Inflation Reduction Act so you dont have to and just published my section-by-section summary of every
#climate
and
#energy
provision in the bill, along with notes on how REPEAT Project modeled each one (Senate Inflation Reduction Act tab)
This
#TexasFreeze
event is FAR outside what ERCOT planned for. Their 2020/2021 Winter Resource Adequacy Assessment estimated a worst case scenario "Extreme Pead Load/Extremee Generation Outages" scenario that included 13,953 MW of total thermal outages ⤵️
My to do list now:
☑️ Massive exhale...
☑️ Celebrate with my beautiful wife and hug my young kids!
☑️ Sleep!!
☑️ Get back to work on Monday, knowing the federal government finally has our back in the clean energy transition!!!
This is bad. Like, lots of bad. Canadian forests have gone from absorbing ~100 million metric tons of CO2/year (MMT/y) to releasing 100-200 MMT/y. A net swing of 200-300 MMT/y is equivalent to ~12-18% of US electricity sector CO2 emissions. Not clear how we'd ever reverse this...
Finally, note that in addition to widespread blackouts from major generation failures, there are also localized power outages from transmission & distribution failures affecting numerous customers. Downed lines, overloaded transformers, etc. Networks also fail in extreme weather.
The ongoing tragedy of Fukushima Daiichi: after closing most of its nuclear power plants Japan now plans to build up to 22 new coal-fired power plants in the next 5 years. Thousands will die from this pollution & Japan's climate mitigation goals are doomed
The Inflation Reduction Act is catapulting the United States to the global forefront in battery recycling, kicking off a U.S. factory building boom & encouraging automakers to research more recyclable batteries:
Out for a morning stroll and just passed a landscaping crew with an F-150 Lightning with its frunk open and full of electric lawn equipment (edgers, blowers etc). 100% electric crew ⚡🔌. All the power, none of the pollution, hardly any noise.
An amazing read on how
@Toyota
, once the "greenest" automaker, totally botched its electric vehicle strategy, leaving the world's largest automaker scrambling to "reboot" EV efforts and compete w/Tesla who is "winning the factory cost war."
"We thought rich white people would be safe, but we were wrong" is the not so subtle subtext of these recent stories. Perhaps that's what it takes to motivate wealthy white populaces. Self interest over moral compulsion. And yes: no one & no place is will be completely unscathed.
In the several weeks since the Pacific heat dome, the cover of the Guardian has declared “Nowhere is Safe,” the front page of the New York Times “No One is Safe,” and the cover of the Economist “No Safe Place.”
ERCOT started directing electric utilities (like Oncor or Austin Electic) to start rolling blackouts or involuntary emergency load shedding at 1:25am on Monday morning, with 10,500 MW shed during that late morning. That's ~2 million homes worth of load
#Bitcoin
folks touting it as a flexible electricity demand that's going to somehow run only on excess wind and solar energy & help decarbonize the grid: Show me the marginal value of a MWh of electricity turned into
#BTC
. Then compare said value to $0/MWh. Now please stop.
I've said it once, I'll say it again: one of THE most consequential policy actions to simultaneously help address climate change AND the cost of living in America is to build more, dense, transit+walking-oriented housing. All levels of govt should be working towards this goal.
It's here!! NET-ZERO AMERICA, a major new
@Princeton
study provides granular guidance on what getting to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions really requires and a blueprint for the actions needed to translate
#ClimateAction
pledges into tangible progress. 🇺🇸
Some statistics to start the year:
During 2021 Bitcoin consumed 134 TWh in total, which is comparable to the electrical energy consumed by a country like Argentina.
Related CO2 emissions were ~64 Mt; enough to negate the entire global net savings from deploying EVs.