Next month,
@timdugganbooks
will publish my big climate book, The Uninhabitable Earth, in which I try to take a very broad, and very long, view of the state of the climate crisis and all the ways it promises to transform how we live on this planet—all of us. (1/x)
When the New England Journal of Medicine is suggesting the White House is running a PPE blockade, around which governors and hospitals have to navigate like blockade runners, you know the federal covid response has entered a new phase of political sadism.
A single Chinese billionaire is providing more testing kits to Americans than the CDC and the entire federal government has managed—and not just a few more, more by many orders of magnitude.
“A new type of vaccine developed by researchers at the University of Chicago has shown in a lab setting that it can completely reverse autoimmune diseases like multiple sclerosis and type 1 diabetes—all without shutting down the rest of the immune system.”
"We are now almost six months into this pandemic, which began in November in Wuhan, with 50,000 Americans dead and 200,000 more around the world. And yet we still don't really know how the disease is killing us." (1/x)
“In my 3 decade-long career being a weather forecaster, and now Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist, I have never observed so many of Earth’s vital signs blinking red.”
"Big Basin Redwoods State Park has burned through. These trees are between 800 and 1,500 years old. Some, older than Muhammad, had stood for a thousand years by the time Europeans set foot in North America. The youngest are older than the Black Death."
Such a damning, depressing line in
@dwallacewells
tour de force new essay on climate change: "If we had started global decarbonization in 2000 we would have had to cut emissions by only about 2 percent per year to stay safely under two degrees of warming."
These estimates are from Israel, but striking: vaccinate the 0.5% of people over 90, and total fatality risk drops 19%. Vaccinate the 2.5% over 80, and it falls by half. Vaccinate the 7.5% over 70, and it drops by 3/4. Age skew remains under appreciated.
“For those of you who are interested in statistics, this is a five-sigma event. So it's five standard deviations beyond the mean. Which means that if nothing had changed, we'd expect to see a winter like this about once every 7.5 million years.”
“If this proposal is adopted at COP25 this week, Singh said, ‘the countries least responsible for the crisis, but suffering the most, could stand even less chance of receiving financial support to recover from devastating impacts.’”
Do most Americans know that this, still ongoing California fire season is the second worst in modern history? We’ve normalized the annual burning of the country’s most populous state at an astonishing speed.
“Rising evidence is pointing to the possibility that leprosy has become endemic in the southeastern U.S. with Florida being named among the top reported states.”
“I lived through the end of a civil war. Do you know what it was like for me? Quite normal. I went to work, I went out, I dated. This is what Americans don’t understand. They’re waiting to get personally punched in the face while ash falls from the sky.”
The world is failing Australia now, more than two months deep into what will eventually be at least a 3-month-long, once-unthinkable fire disaster, which everyone else on the planet is already choosing to see as normal—even as it continues to burn.
“As the world goes through what some believe to be its hottest year on record, emperor penguin populations in the Antarctic are suffering catastrophic losses, with no chicks surviving the spring of 2022 in four of five colonies observed for a new study.”
“Over the last 10 years, the largest climate and weather disasters have cost Americans more than a trillion dollars — far more than the Democrats had hoped to spend to stop the climate crisis.”
“‘Even the most pessimistic models didn't expect that the cold British Isles would reach 40 degrees, and that's happening before our eyes,’ he said, ‘faster and more powerfully than what we forecasted.’”
Air pollution kills an estimated ten million people each year. But it does much more than that, too. A long thread on what it means that more than 90 percent of the world's population is breathing dangerously polluted air. (1/x)
"As much as anyone, I found it unsettling to learn that the entire water crisis in the American West comes down to cows eating alfalfa in a landscape where neither belongs."
“The majority of the population of the northwest territories of Canada were evacuated last night because all of the major settlements are threatened by separate fires. All of them.”
“Some 54 scientists have resigned or been fired as a result of an ongoing investigation by the NIH into the failure of NIH grantees to disclose financial ties to foreign governments. In 93% of those cases, the hidden funding came from China.”
“We don’t just need a planet roughly the same size and temperature as Earth; we need a planet that spent billions of years evolving with us. We depend completely on the billions of organisms that make up Earth’s biosphere. Without them, we cannot survive.”
“Two days after rallying 7 million protesters across the world, Greta Thunberg was credited for motivating voters to redraw the political landscape in Austria, as the country's Greens unexpectedly tripled their support Sunday to win 14% of the vote.”
“How much damage can one person do to the planet?” I wondered back in October about Jair Bolsonaro. Less than a year later, he’s proving the answer is a terrifying amount, so long as the rest of the world stands idly by.
“An analysis by Media Matters found that the NBC, ABC, and CBS morning shows devoted 212 minutes to Bezos’ little jaunt. In comparison, those same shows spent 267 minutes covering climate all of last year.”
“One-tenth of flights from France in 2019 were on private aircraft. In just four hours, those planes generate as much CO2 as an average person in the EU emits all year. Four-fifths of people on the planet never get on an airplane in their entire lifetime.”
I often say the most mind-bending fact about climate is that half of all emissions came in the last 25 years. Maybe even more startling: the weight of that carbon is more than the total mass of everything ever built by humans and still standing on earth.
“Washington state, despite being the site of the earliest US cluster, has contained its outbreak better than any state. This simply must be because Inslee started testing earlier, implemented clampdown measures earlier, and tightened them earlier.”
"Right now, on the outskirts of a hyper modern first world megapolis, a climate disaster of unimaginable horror has been unfolding for almost two full months, and the rest of the world is hardly paying attention."
“Floods have devastated two-thirds of Slovenia. Many villages are cut off from the outside world. The Balkan country is struggling with the worst natural disaster in its history.”
The White House is intercepting and interrupting the delivery to states of hospitals of necessary medical equipment and PPE. This is a blockade. It is how the union squeezed the confederacy during the civil war. It is criminal.
“The world is long past the point when some amount of dangerous climate change could be avoided. And we no longer need to look to the future to imagine what that change could look and feel like. The climate crisis is here.”
Born in 1832, before the American Civil War and the Opium Wars, the Communist Manifesto and 1848, the Sepoy Mutiny and the New Imperialism, railroads and electricity, photography and telegraphy, anesthesia and the germ theory of disease.
"Whenever someone says, 'we’ll adapt to climate change,' 100% of the time it’s a rich person. Poor people never say 'we’ll adapt' because they know they can’t afford it. For them, adaptation = suffering."
The entire purpose of COP25 was for nations to scale up their own ambitions and raise the decarbonization targets established under Paris. After an extra day of contentious negotiation, all language referring to that goal has been stripped from the resolution.
As if UK politics wasn’t depressing enough, the overrunning
#COP25
climate talks, supposed to finish yesterday, are overrunning all night and new into the next day. They are a mess. As public pressure is mounting, countries are back-sliding. A dangerous moment.
“Scientists have found viruses nearly 15,000 years old in two ice samples taken from the Tibetan Plateau in China. Most of those viruses, which survived because they had remained frozen, are unlike any viruses that have been cataloged to date.”
“At least five large U.S. property insurers—including Allstate, American Family, Nationwide, Erie and Berkshire Hathaway—have told regulators that extreme weather patterns caused by climate change have led them to stop writing coverages in some regions.”
“I’m 40 years into conservation biology and I can tell you we are losing badly, getting our asses kicked,’ Dan Ashe, director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service under President Obama, told me recently. ‘There are almost no reasons to be optimistic.’”
“‘There’s not a “weird” acceleration happening’ in the Earth’s climate, said Noah Diffenbaugh, a scientist at Stanford University. ‘There’s an expected acceleration happening.’”
“Guterres told ministers from 40 countries on Monday: ‘Half of humanity is in the danger zone, from floods, droughts, extreme storms and wildfires. No nation is immune. Yet we continue to feed our fossil fuel addiction.’”
“The U.S. saw 2,909 people die of Covid-19 in 24 hours, according to the data, which was collected as of 4 a.m. ET on Friday. That’s the highest daily death toll in the U.S. yet.”
“But what concerns us is what we’re seeing in the clinic every day: More young people, otherwise healthy with no genetic syndrome, being diagnosed with very advanced stages of gastrointestinal cancers.”
“Carbon credit speculators could lose billions as scientific evidence shows many offsets they have bought have no environmental worth and have become stranded assets.”
Yesterday, 3,896 covid deaths were reported in the United States, the tenth deadliest day of the whole pandemic and the deadliest since the pre-vaccination surge last winter. Over the last four days, the total is 12,957.
“The study, which asked 2,000 Norwegian adults how they felt about the climate crisis, found the link to activism was seven times stronger for anger than it was for hope.”
“Disaster researchers call this phenomenon ‘elite panic.’ When authorities believe their own citizens will become dangerous, they begin to focus on controlling the public, rather than on addressing the disaster itself.”
“Thousands of schools in the Philippines have stopped in-person classes due to unbearable heat. In Indonesia, prolonged dry weather has caused rice prices to soar. In Thailand’s waters, temperatures are so high scientists fear coral could be destroyed.”
“Rainfall washes 7 trillion pieces of microplastics, much of it tire particles left behind on streets, into San Francisco Bay each year—an amount 300 times greater than what comes from washing off polyester clothes, microbeads from beauty products…”
“‘The weather is changing as expected and predicted by scientists, but our societies and ecosystems are more vulnerable to even small changes than expected previously, and so the damages are worse,’ said Dr Friederike Otto.”
❗️Today, the Los Angeles basin will experience our hottest day in 125,000 years.
Yesterday was the hottest day ever recorded in several cities.
Left image shows 110°F readings at noon yesterday.
Right image shows 110°F readings at noon today.
Some big news: Next month, I'll be joining
@nytimes
, writing both for the opinion desk (where I'll be starting a newsletter covering climate change, science and the disorienting near future) and for the magazine (contributing regular columns and a few big features a year). (1/x)
We’re thrilled to welcome
@dwallacewells
to
@nytopinion
and
@nytmag
, helping us deepen our coverage of the many ways science and technology shape the world — and are shaped by the world.
“The study suggests that, by 2040, forests will take up only half as much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as they do now, if global temperatures keep rising at the present pace.”
Quite a lot of climate coverage over the last few weeks has taken this tone—“it’s here, it’s now.” But what is “it”? The climate crisis is not an event but an era, in which cascading impacts are almost certain to continue to worsen and intensify, punishing more each year.
“Thwaites Glacier is the size of Florida. It is the cork in the bottle of the entire West Antarctic ice sheet, which contains enough ice to raise sea levels by 10 feet.” The great
@jeffgoodell
on the scary signs from the “Doomsday” glacier. (1/x)
“New York City, which was recently reclassified as a ‘humid subtropical’ climate, has clocked nearly 700 consecutive days with less than an inch of snowfall. It’s definitely over the snow-loss cliff, and as global temps increase, more places will follow.”
#ImageOfTheDay
A
#heatwave
is ongoing in Europe ♨️
➡️Many records 🌡️ have been broken in Austria, France, Switzerland, Germany and
#Spain
⬇️As measured by
#Sentinel3
🇪🇺🛰️, on 11 July the Land Surface Temperature exceeded 60°C in Extremadura 🇪🇸
#OlaDeCalor
“Before, it was a handful of people—next to burning forests, or trapped by rising seas. Now? It’s London, a burning Spain, a flooded Yellowstone, a drought-stricken American West, a scorched Indian Subcontinent, Australia and Canada ravaged by megafires.”
So far this year, wildfires in Canada have burned a land area larger than 140 of the world’s 230 countries. The season has months to go, and, as has been the case for months already, more than a thousand wildfires are burning across the country, more than half “out of control.”
The vaccines are still performing quite well in preventing severe disease. But with Delta they are doing much worse in stopping transmission. Breakthroughs are probably now 10-20% of new infections, and perhaps as much as 5% of new deaths. A thread. (1/x)
“Some Spanish farmers didn’t even bother to sow this spring, which was the hottest on record. About one-fifth of Spain has desertified. That could rise to three-quarters.”
The IMF — no enemy of business — estimates that globally fossil fuels, which poison our future, are being subsidized $5.2 TRILLION annually. Simply removing those subsidies, they say, would have lowered global emissions by 28%—and deaths from air pollution by 46%. Unconscionable.
@IMFNews
just published global update on fossil fuel subsidies: estimate f 2017 a staggering US$ 5.2 TRILLION (6.5% of global GDP). ‘Efficient fossil fuel pricing’ in 2015, would have lowered carbon emissions by 28% & foss fuel air pollution deaths by 46%.
"For me, living in my bubble of activists, it may seem like people know where we’re heading, know what’s happening. People care. But when I move outside that bubble into the real world, it strikes me every time that people are really living in denial."
Since yesterday, 200,000 hectares, or nearly half a million acres, have burned in Canada. That is, in one day, considerably more than burned in California all of last year.
“The lack of attention on Pakistan is heartbreaking: Too few major international cultural figures are speaking up for us in this moment of crisis. It is either a snide form of racism or else an utter failure of compassion.”
“Solar is growing fast enough to decarbonise the global energy system before 2050, even for an all-electric energy system used by ten billion affluent people.”
“It wasn’t just by a few per cent, it was up to a hundred times less mortality. The countries that introduced masks from the very beginning of their outbreak have had hardly any deaths.”
“For the first time, it is possible for water, produced by sunlight, to be even cheaper than tap water,” says Lenan Zhang, a research scientist in MIT’s Device Research Laboratory.
“Just 1% of voters named climate change as the most important issue facing the country, far behind worries about inflation and the economy. Even among voters under 30, the group thought to be most energized by the issue, that figure was 3%.”
The vaccine rollout has been bungled just as much everything else about the American pandemic response. We managed to engineer a miracle drug, but are taking so long to administer it we are currently on track to reach herd immunity in about 7 years.
“The era of climate denial has been replaced with one plagued by climate promises that no one seems prepared to keep.” A thread on climate hypocrisy, greenwashing, empty promises and good intentions and the basic dissonance of big recent pledges (1/x).
“It would cost $73 trillion to revamp power grids, transportation, manufacturing and other systems to run on wind, solar and hydro power, including storage capacity, the report found. But that would be offset by annual savings of almost $11 trillion.”
“From tomorrow (Friday), 80% of the Catalan population, including Barcelona, will be under strict water restrictions. ‘We are entering a new climate reality.’”
“We are pushing temperatures up to Pliocene levels, which is outside the realm of human experience; it’s such a massive change that most things on Earth haven’t had to deal with it,” Huber said.
Dramatic demonstration of what climate change means: Siberia suffering from oil spills, crazy heat waves, wildfires and microbe- and methane-leaking thawing permafrost- simultaneously
Including more emissions from wildfires in June than Belgium in a year
It’s not just how relatively smooth and shallow the slope of decarbonization would have been if we’d begun at the first assessment, but how long it extends as a result—requiring net zero only by 2100, as opposed to 2040, to bring the world in line with 1.5C.
“‘Build back better. Blah, blah, blah. Green economy. Blah blah blah. Net zero by 2050. Blah, blah, blah,’ she said in a speech to the Youth4Climate summit in Milan, Italy, on Tuesday.”
“None of the observed changes so far (with a 1.2C temperature rise) are surprising. But they are more severe than we predicted 20 years ago, and more severe than the predictions of five years ago. We probably underestimated the consequences.”