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Yan Qin Profile
Yan Qin

@YanQinyq

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Carbon analyst @LSEGplc ; Research Associate @OxfordEnergy . #EUETS #OCTT Economist and Power Modeller. Views are my own.

Oslo, Norway
Joined September 2013
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
5⃣0⃣ years of Global Steel Production This is an impressive visualization!
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
🙀Now I understand why many are talking about #wheat prices
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
10 months
☀️ Explosive growth in solar power means most EU countries will hit their 2030 renewable energy targets ahead of time, new data shows, fuelling optimism on efforts to bring down global emissions By @victor__jack
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
1 year
☀️🇨🇳China added 33.66 GW Solar capacity in the first three months this year With this speed, the estimate of 95-120GW new solar capacity in 2023 could be easily achieved
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
1 year
🇨🇳 ☢️ Nuclear power China Nuclear Energy Association expects ☢️ installed capacity to rise from current 56.82 GW to 110 GW in 2030 150 GW in 2035 400 GW in 2060
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
⚡️China approves more Nuclear power plants State Media: 🇨🇳cabinet approved second phase of Zhangzhou nuclear power plant (Fujian) and first phase of Lianjiang nuclear power plant (Guangdong)
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
7 months
+129GW ☀️ China has added 129GW new Solar capacity in Jan-Sep (Record high Solar additions in 🇨🇳 is not news anymore, every month will be a new record… so this tweet is really just to document the numbers🤓)
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
☢️ China nuclear power As of 31 March, China has 54 operable nuclear power reactors with total capacity of 55805.74MW The nuclear fleet’ average load factor stood at 90.3% in Q1 2022, contributing to 5% of 🇨🇳 total power generation
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
👏China released the long-awaited 14th Five-Year Plan for Renewables Key 2025 targets: 🍀20% non-fossil share of energy consumption ☀️50% of RE share in the INCREASE in energy cons ⚡️RE electricity reach 3300 TWh, doubling of wind and solar power generation
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
10 months
🇨🇳 ☀️ China is projected to add 120-140 GW new Solar capacity in 2023 China PV industry association said at an event on 20 July This is up from its previous forecast of +95 to 120GW
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
China released key goals in 14th Five-Year Plan: 🇨🇳 2021-2025 🔹>6% GDP growth in 2021 🔹-13.5% in Energy consumption per unit of GDP by 2025 🔹-18% in Carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 2025 🧵Thread on Climate and Energy targets in the new FYP
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
⚡️ China Nuclear power capacity Outlook: 2025: 70 GW, from draft 14th Five-Year plan 2030: 110 GW, China Nuclear Energy Association 2035: 180 GW, CNCC proposal 2050: 327 GW, Tsinghua ICCSD low carbon scenarios
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
10 months
☀️ 🇨🇳 Solar China added 78.42 GW Solar capacity in H1 2023 40.963 GW are distributed PV including 21.522 GW Residential 👇Data by province from NEA
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
🎉China added 100.54 GW Wind and Solar capacity in 2021, latest data from energy regulator shows. This outperforms the 90GW guaranteed target. Wind: +47.57 GW (incl. 16.9 GW offshore🌊) Solar: +52.97 GW (55% are distributed ☀️)
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
☀️ China Solar power 📈 Last year 🇨🇳 connected 55 GW new solar capacity to the grid, and will likely double this number to add a total of 108 GW solar in 2022. said energy regulator NEA on 30May reported by CCTV news
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
It’s not only the Rhine River, China’s Yangtze River saw low water levels too as heatwaves sweeping southern regions. Picture of Hankou in Wuhan city. On 14 Aug, water level at this key monitoring point dropped to lowest seen for this time of year since 1865
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
How severe is the drought in China’s Sichuan province? “Hitting rock bottom” in some reservoirs Power rationing continues due to +40C heatwave 🌡️ and low hydro power output ⚡️
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
4 years
🚨China will unveil the first official 2060 Carbon Neutral pathway and scenarios results on October 12 👇 Live-streamed workshop with Environment Minister and ALL the top climate advisors (Xie Zhenhua, He Jiankun) organized by Tsinghua University.
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
On 24 October, China released Top-level design document in the '1+N' Carbon Peak and Neutrality policy framework. On the eve of #COP26 , and 1 year after China announced 2060 carbon neutral pledge, the implications of this landmark doc are HUGE: 🧵thread:
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
‼️Over 10 🇨🇳 provinces are curbing industrial production or seeing power shortage in China at present. Two reasons: 🎯 Bring down energy consumption to meet the target 🏭 Coal plants cut production amid rising fuel prices This may lasts into October
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
European carbon price is near €95 now It was €92 when I had morning coffee, and is still going up while I am taking screenshot of this price chart⬆️ #EUETS #bullrun
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
4 months
Gas-fired power sector booming like there’s no tomorrow via @EnergyMonitorAI
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
6 months
☀️🚫 China has installed 225.26GW distributed Solar as of this September, but further development could slow down due to grid constraints in several provinces Henan: 8.6 GW capacity left Hebei south grid: 2.07 GW
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
Tomorrow, UK hourly day-ahead power price hit £867/MWh for 19-20pm What will price be in winter 🥶?
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
📰What caused China's Coal shortage? An in-depth analysis by Caijing (financial news) with exclusive interviews of coal miners/traders/power plants in the journalists' month-long field visits to Shanxi and Inner Mongolia. Link:
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
10 months
🇨🇳 ☢️ On 31 July, China State Council approved the construction of 6 nuclear reactors Shidaowan (Shandong) Ningde (Fujian) Xudabao (Liaoning) Hualong One (HPR 1000) units
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
🙏Finally my hometown Xinxiang stands the second round of flooding and Wei River water level starts to recede Huge sacrifice of 60+ villages in upper-stream Weihui county’s flood diversion zones 😰 Residents evacuated but they lost houses and farms 🏠🌊
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
☀️China may add 140-150 GW Wind and Solar capacity this year, shown in latest projections by China Electricity Council. The industry association expects non-fossil installed capacity to > 50% of total fleet in 2022. Coal capacity rises slightly too.
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
8 months
🎉China Spot power market rules are officially released!! This is huge news 🇨🇳 NDRC and NEA published the 'Electricity spot market basic rules (trial)' dated 7 September This marks a milestone in establishing the national unified Power market
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Yan Qin
3 years
👏China ends overseas coal financing! China will STOP building new coal plants abroad! 🇨🇳 president Xi just announced in his speech at #UNGA76 He also reiterated China's pledge to peak emissions before 2030 and achieve #carbonneutral before 2060
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
😱French power January-2022 contract soared 37% to 540 euro/MWh this morning on nuclear outages announced by EDF...
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
From 🇵🇱 Prime Minister: “The Polish proposal is to freeze the price of CO₂ emission allowances at €30 for at least one year, with the possibility of extending it for two.” #EUETS
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
9 months
⚡️ China’s power consumption is projected to rise to between 9800 and 10200 TWh in 2025, from 8637 TWh in 2022 by China Electric Power Planning and Engineering Institute (EPPEI)
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Yan Qin
2 months
⚡❓ What’s behind the rapid growth of China’s electricity consumption? +6.7% in 2023, outpacing the GDP growth. 🧵A recent research attributed the drivers as ‘higher electricity-intensity per unit of GDP, driven by electrification and energy revolution’
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
🌍Global Energy Infrastructure Emissions Database (GID) just released: 2019 unit-/facility-level CO2 emission data of Power, Iron and steel and Cement sectors just released. 🏭 100,000 facilities via Tsinghua University sponsored by 🇨🇳ministries
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
1 year
1⃣0⃣0⃣ euro Carbon price FINALLY! #EUETS milestone
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Yan Qin
3 years
🎉Strong boost for Wind and Solar development in China. 🇨🇳energy regulator NEA aims to raise Wind & Solar generation's share in total power consumption to 11% in 2021 and 16.5% in 2025, from 9.7% in 2020. This implies adding 100GW Wind&Solar per year.
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
4 years
📉English version of slides from Tsinghua ICCSD “China's Long-term Low-Carbon Development Strategy and Pathway" workshop on 12 October, by professor He Jiankun is pubslished now: 🇨🇳 #CarbonNeutral
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
€43/t European carbon price🚀 The bull run in #EUETS continues on Monday, setting new record high. Looking at EUA price chart since 2005, then recall I have actually spent quite some of my carbon analyst career with single-digit carbon price.
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
China's northeast power grid was 'on the verge of collapsing'❗️ so grid company enforced emergency cuts for residentials to stabilize grid, affecting lifts, traffic lights, even water supply. If peak load >70GW + thermal outages/low wind, then it is TIGHT
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
China Energy Transition in 5 Charts Source:
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Yan Qin
1 year
🇨🇳 energy regulator outlined key objectives for 2023 ☀️Add 160 GW Solar & Wind capacity in 2023, following ~120 GW addition in 2022 ⚡️Speed up the construction of national unified power market system / reform from the 30Dec National Energy Work Conference
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
8 months
Today marks the launch of 🇪🇺 Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism’s transitional phase CBAM will affect global trade flows 🧑🏻‍✈️🏗 and inject momentum into Carbon pricing schemes 🌎
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Yan Qin
5 months
🎉Full report of the China Energy Transformation Outlook 2023 is published Link: This is a flagship report led by NDRC Energy Research Institute and international partners 🇩🇰🇺🇸🇬🇧🇳🇴, mapping out 🇨🇳 #carbonneutral pathway
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
😲 European carbon price is heading towards €80/t and it was only ~30 euro at the start of 2021🚀
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Yan Qin
1 year
McKinsey report: “Four themes shaping the future of the stormy European power market” 3️⃣ Not enough dispatchable power
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Yan Qin
3 years
Never a boring day for EU carbon market analyst 🚀EUA price hit new high €74.39/t #thisisgettingabitcrazy
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
👏👏👏Bank of China announced that it will STOP financing new coal mining, power projects overseas from Q4. Press release of the 🇨🇳 state lender on its Carbon peak and neutrality action plan:
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Yan Qin
3 years
🎉NEW: China Power Sector Reform 🇨🇳 state planner NDRC just released notice on 'Further deepening reform of market-based coal-fired power pricing' -ALL of Coal power gradually in market -Expand price floating range -INDUSTRIAL+ COMMERCIAL users in market
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
Reuters: China will ban new steel, coking, oil refining, cement and glass projects in key zones, the government said on Friday in a wide-ranging policy document aimed at tackling pollution and meeting the country's climate goals.
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Yan Qin
3 years
🥶 -4 degree this morning 8-9 am Power price in Eastern Norway: 😱 €260/MWh ☕️🫖 🚙 🔋 🔌
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Yan Qin
1 year
🌧️Will southern China experience drought and low hydro output again in 2023? Water level at the Three Gorges is still lower than previous years The southwestern Yunnan province asked aluminum producers to further cut power usage
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
⚠️60.6% of China's coal power plants are facing net financial loss due to surging coal prices this year. Researcher Wang Ke of Renmin University estimated based on 2019 fiscal costs of existing coal projects China Energy Newspaper:
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
1 year
European Carbon price hit all-time high of €99.99/t on 20 February 2023 A chart of #EUETS price since 2008
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
@ElephantEating @KaarinaKolle “饼状图” in Chinese... “bing-shape diagram” there may be a hundred types of 饼🫓 (pancake), this picture is a classic homemade 葱油饼 with spring onion.
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
😱4000 euro/MWh power price... Day-ahead prices in several Nordic bidding zones hit the maximum price cap of EUR 4000 for delivery on 17 August 17-18pm
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Yan Qin
1 year
100 euro Carbon price? The #EUETS price rally is becoming unstoppable and the benchmark EUA contract rose above €97/t this morning
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Yan Qin
2 years
🚨China Power Sector Reform 🇨🇳NDRC just released Guidance on Speeding up establishing National Uniform Power Market This is HUGE news 🎉 2025: preliminary completion 2030: finalizing national power market Set up national Power Exchange
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 months
The large drop in 🇪🇺 European Carbon price this year (so far) has triggered the discussions of 'introducing price floor #EUETS ' again My view is: we shall not focus too much on short-term movements (such as 'speculators driving EUETS price to €100') 🧵
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
🇨🇳 Power sector shall feel the pressure to “Phase down Coal” now following the #LeadersClimateSummit pledge “China will strictly control coal-fired power generation projects” is headline on almost all of the power news accounts I follow on WeChat📱
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Yan Qin
8 months
🏭 China’s Coal power capacity will increase further until 2030, rising to peak at ~1370 GW +~250 GW from 2022 level said leading 🇨🇳 think tank State Council DRC in a new report on 16 Sep, reported by Caixin
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
❓Power of Siberia 2 🇷🇺: It will replace Nord Stream 2 🇨🇳-based expert told Reuters: "Fundamentally we see little support for it to materialise before 2030 as China has secured enough supplies by then,"
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Yan Qin
3 years
👏$0.015/kWh new record low LCOE for China onshore Wind! 🇨🇳 SDIC and SANY completed purchase agreement for 200MW wind project in Guazhou county of Gansu province (32*6.25MW) for LCOE of 0.098 CNY/kWh based on 4500 CNY/kW & 3400 hrs/y
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Yan Qin
3 years
Very strong signals on 🇨🇳climate pledge from top leadership: President Xi stressed 'Carbon peak and Carbon neutral is a comprehensive and deep economic and social reform' ...at the 9th session of Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission today.
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
📢It is OFFICIAL: China national Carbon market will launch online Trading by end of June. 🇨🇳Minister of Ecology and Environment Huang Runqiu visited both Hubei and Shanghai inspecting the national ETS Registry and Trading platform. #OCTT #CNETS
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Yan Qin
4 months
☀️🇨🇳 China boosted its Solar power capacity by 55% in 2023 (+216.88 GW) to 609.49 GW Data from National Energy Administration released on 26 January (Note the 216.88GW are for installations >6MW, so actual solar additions might be even higher)
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
❗️China #CarbonNeutral refers to ALL GHG, not CO2-only Climate envoy Xie Zhenhua clarified this point at 24 July Global Asset Management Forum: I think this shall need official confirmation, but rather similar to Tsinghua study.
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
🇨🇳 state planner released the long-awaited 14th Five-Year Plan for Energy sector today. by 2⃣0⃣2⃣5⃣: Energy production: 4.6 bln tsce CO2/GDP intensity: -18% Energy/GDP intensity: -13.5% Non-fossil: 20% Non-fossil power: 39% ⚡️installed capacity: 3000 GW
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Yan Qin
3 years
🚢 Coal from Kazakhstan to Zhejiang province in eastern China 15700 km in 30 days (8501 Nautical mile)
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
4 months
How to forecast European Carbon price? I am delighted to share a new working paper by researchers at University of Milan and me on quantitative models to forecast monthly #EUETS price. 🔗 👐Your comments are very welcome!
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
NEW DATA 🇨🇳📊☀️ By the end of 2020, China has: Wind capacity: 280 GW Solar capacity: 250 GW 👇Here are two charts with installed capacity by provinces released by China National Renewable Integration and Monitoring Center:
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Yan Qin
2 years
🏭China national Carbon market likely expands to cover Aluminium and Cement sector from 2023, and eventually all industry sectors by 2025 said professor Zhang Xiliang at a recent forum, a key designer of the ETS #CNETS #CBAM #OCTT
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Yan Qin
2 months
☀️ China added 36.72 GW Solar power capacity in Jan-Feb 2024 Data from National Energy Administration Wind capacity +9.89 GW
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
🎉China launched trading in national Carbon market! 9:30am on 16 July 2021 The first trades are here and are quite active since open, says @RefinitivCarbon analyst Yuan Lin who is now at the national Carbon exchange. #CNETS #OCTT
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Yan Qin
6 months
☀️ 🇨🇳 has added 142.56 GW Solar capacity in the first 10 months of 2023
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 months
Over the weekend, the topic of China increasing the curtailment rate (from 5%, potentially to 10%) for solar and wind went viral among Chinese power/renewable sector professionals That sort of confirmed the Reuters news from February citing industry sources
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Yan Qin
2 years
NEW paper on 🇨🇳Power sector's Carbon peak and neutrality pathway This comprehensive study in journal Strategic Study of China Academy of Engineering used State Grid's power model ⚡️Power sector emissions peak around 2028 🏭Coal capacity peak at 1250 GW
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
🏭🇨🇳released 'Carbon Peak Implementation Plan for Industry sectors' Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly with NDRC & MEE published the roadmap on 1 Aug. 'Modern industrial system featuring high efficiency, green, circular and low-Carbon'
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
China state planner NDRC just released a press briefing on ensuring winter/spring energy supply. -release efficient coal mining capacity -orderly increase coal imports -domestic gas production⬆️ -ensure coal/gas plants generation -pass through energy costs
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
The Green #Beijing2022 showcases what a future 🇨🇳 energy system with 💯 clean energy looks like: ☀️ Solar & Wind ⚡️ Zhangbei RE flexible DC grid 🔋 Fengning pumped-hydro (3.6GW, 10.8hr, 40GWh) 🚌 Hydrogen transport
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Yan Qin
3 months
☀️China is expected to add 190 GW to 220 GW new Solar capacity in 2024, said the 🇨🇳PV industry association in its latest outlook released on 28 February Chart below from the slide pack by CPIA, depicting yearly solar additions forecasts for 2 scenarios
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
China added record 72 GW new wind capacity in 2020. 26.32 GW of these are already constructed earlier, but not connected to grid until last year, China Wind Energy Association provided more detailed data on Installed vs On-grid wind capacity below.
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
🏭Coal-fired power plants are still being favored in German power merit order...despite €70/t #EUETS price European Gas price is just too HIGH This does exhibit some fundamental support for current carbon rally: high coal burn leads to high EUA demand
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
1 year
❗️China’s official response to EU Carbon tariff #CBAM #OCTT Exclusive news by Yicai news from the 5 & 7 June WTO trade policy review of the EU 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 delegate: “CBAM is regrettable and fails to comply with UNFCCC, Paris Agreement principles and WTO rules”
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
China’s southern Sichuan province is experiencing tight power supply due to rather extreme weather: 🌡️ Scorching temperatures driving up power demand +20% 🌧 Unusually low level of precipitation resulting in sharp drop in hydro power output
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
Why are some Chinese provinces facing coal shortage? This chart on China coal transportation routes from a 2015 literature is interesting to check out.
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
China considers 40% Renewable power target for 2030, shown in the draft consultation issued by 🇨🇳energy regulator NEA. 📈China's Wind and Solar power capacity need to triple by 2030, reaching at least 1500 GW and above NDC target of 1200 GW.
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
€59.95 new record high #EUETS price 🚀 🚀 🚀
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
1 year
🇨🇳 ☀️ China is on track to add 85GW to 100GW Solar power capacity in 2022, said the industry association CPIA In Jan-Oct, China’s solar capacity increased by 58.24GW
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
4 months
(Reuters) - China is expected to increase curbs on renewable power plant output for the first time in eight years, three industry sources said, after several provinces said rapid solar and wind expansion had exhausted grid capacity.
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
⚠️Surging coal prices are putting pressure on China's power producers Facing $200/t thermal coal prices, and power tariff regulated & capped: 'One coal plant lose 0.1 CNY per kWh (so 20% of tariff)', via China Energy Newspaper
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
3 years
⚠️Over 20 🇨🇳 provinces have been curbing power consumption in both industrial and residential sectors since late August. Chart by Jiemian news on the latest status of China’s power shortage, and provincial energy targets🚦alerts
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
1 month
NEW: China environment ministry released the average CO2 emissions factor of electricity ⚡️ (kg/kWh) 0.5568 (national) 0.5942 (national, excl. market transacted non-fossil ⚡️) and for the first time disclosed the calculation methodology (🇪🇺CBAM)
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
4 years
Key ministries in China are drafting the country’s Hydrogoen strategy 📖, former minister of industry and information technology told China Energy Newspaper. “Green Hydrogen is the direction” 👇China H2 Pathway roadmap by EV100plus 🚗🚚🛳🔋🏭
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23
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
Fortunately, in the medium- and longer-term, the goals of the European Green Deal coincide with these related to the EU’s energy security. So, the strategy of doubling down on the energy transition is sound.
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
1 year
European Carbon price hit triple digits 1⃣0⃣0⃣ Let's review its journey since 2005, passing one milestone after another Increased ambition and the reforms underpin the #EUETS , a cornerstone of the EU's policy to combat climate change #Fitfor55 📉
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 years
☢️ all 3 now German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has asked the economy, environment and finance ministries to lay the legal framework to keep the country's three nuclear power plants operational until as late as April 15 2023
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@YanQinyq
Yan Qin
2 months
9⃣ years ago China launched the recent round of Power sector reform (15 March 2015, doc No.9) I think the progress has been astonishing: -Released 'Basic rules of spot market'/more pilots -Capacity Mechanism (Coal) -Ancillary services (pricing mechanism)
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