New/old paper with Hitoshi Tsujiyama now forthcoming. Paper tackles an old question – the shape of the optimal income tax schedule. Should marginal rates be flat (Friedman / Mirrlees), U-shaped in income (Diamond / Saez) or increasing (actual tax code)? 1/
Vincenzo Quadrini and I organized a special issue of RED to celebrate the 25th anniversary of "Frontiers of Business Cycle Research," a book edited by Tom Cooley in 1995. Please take a look! 1/3
95.7% of people who have died from COVID in the US have been over 50. It is wrong to be vaccinating healthy 20, 30 and 40 year-olds when many people in their 50s, 60s, and 70s have yet to be vaccinated. The UK and a few US states (CT) are doing it right. Most US states are not.
Super happy four awesome economists are joining the Research Department at the Minneapolis Fed next year: Jennifer La'O
@jensqu4r3d
, Michael Waugh, Christian Moser, and Kyle Herkenhoff. Also excited Andrew Goodman-Bacon
@agoodmanbacon
& Illenin Kondo are joining OIGI Institute
Annoying that the US and other rich countries didn't immediately buy COVID vaccines for the entire developing world population. The vaccines are cheap, and it would have been fantastic foreign policy as well as domestic public health policy. Still not too late to help.
Glover, Krueger, Rios-Rull and I have a new paper on the optimal economic policy response to COVID-19. We focus on differential implications of shutdowns by age and sector, and study the joint optimal shutdown and redistribution policy. Comments welcome!
Andy Atkeson, Fabrizio Perri and I have extensively revised our paper, “The End of Privilege: A Re-examination of the Net Foreign Asset Position of the United States”. New version is here: I’m excited to tell you a bit about it. 1/7
I was teaching this morning, and super impressed with my students who are surviving an Econ PhD, at Minnesota, during COVID, with 300 consecutive hours below 0'F. Hang in there! Life is all downhill from here!
Thread on new project with Andy Atkeson and
@fabrizio_perri
on the unprecedented decline in the US net foreign asset position over the past decade. What has driven this decline? What are the welfare consequences? 1/7
Call for papers!
As part of the NBER's Summer Institute,
@raquel1fernan
Roland Bénabou and I are organizing the "Inequality and Macroeconomics" workshop on July 16-17, 2024.
Submission deadline is March 21.
Please submit here:
@leah_boustan
We should be cautious, because there are clear border effects for testing rates. So are we picking up differential testing, or true differential disease incidence?
Vincenzo Quadrini and I are stepping down as Coordinating Editors at RED. It was a good experience, but a lot of work. Vincenzo was a fantastic partner. Also, all the other editors and associate editors were just great. I’m very excited Loukas has agreed to take over!
My views, concisely, on this.
1. Tax incidence is messy., but
@gabriel_zucman
‘s current assumption is reasonable in my view and is consistent with other recent work. See e.g.
2. I don’t agree with excluding the EITC when measuring tax rates. In fact I
🧵Thread on
@gabriel_zucman
's claim that billionaires pay a lower tax rate than the average American, as published in yesterday's
@nytimes
.
The short version: Zucman manipulates his data to fit a pro-tax political narrative. You can see this by comparing to his own earlier work.
This is a paper with Storesletten and
@glviolante
on optimal age-variation in taxation, where the planner balances competing concerns: (1) inequality increases with age => case for more progressive taxes on the old. 1/4
I was very happy to contribute a bit toward this fantastic project by writing a chapter on fiscal policy with
@KStoresletten
and
@mazzimon77
. The chapter is on the book website here:
If your research relates to inequality, please apply to visit the Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute at the Minneapolis Fed. Visits can be short or year long. It's a great research environment! Deadline for applications is Feb 15. Please share!
New paper with
@ZhifengC
now forthcoming. We argue that rising income inequality is the main explanation for the dramatic observed growth in college tuition over the last 30 years.
@LeeHepner
For every uber / Lyft driver in Minneapolis, working for Uber or Lyft was the best available job. For every rider, taking Uber or Lyft was the best available ride option. Every single Uber or lyft ride left both the driver and the rider better off — if it had not, either the
I have a new paper with
@ZhifengC
about quits and optimal unemployment insurance:
Should workers who quit their jobs be entitled to UI benefits? In many countries they are; in the US they typically are not. Is there a reason to
This is good advice. Equivalently: work on the paper that is closest to being finished. Which usually amounts to: work on the paper that you are least excited about. No-one actually does this — that would mean writing one paper at a time. But still, good advice.
Advice from Duflo: If you have an R&R, drop everything else and attend to it. If you have a conditional accept, drop everything including your R&R's and send in the files. And treat a reject and resubmit just like a revise and resubmit
#CSWEP
#firesidechats
I saw some great papers at the SED. One by
@cristinarellano
Amador and Aguiar. They take an Aiyagari economy, with proportional taxes, debt and LS transfers. They show that when the equilibrium interest rate is negative, one can construct Pareto improving tax reforms!
@zoeschlanger
@TheAtlantic
I’d like to know why Phoenix is the fastest growing city in the US, even though it is crazy hot, and why the Miami housing market is booming, even though the city may soon be under water.
The federal income tax code is progressive. Now, we all know that, but what about state and local taxes? How progressive are they? And how much does progressivity vary among the states? Economist Jonathan Heathcoat investigates: listen here 👇👇
@ATabarrok
They rebuilt the I35 bridge in Minneapolis in 13 months at a cost of 250m in 2007-08. I would recommend using the same company — Flatiron Construction.
@Ocasio2018
@IlhanMN
@AyannaPressley
@RashidaTlaib
It is important to remember that healthcare and college are expensive to provide. Someone has to pay for their provision, so they cannot be "free" to everyone. And it seems reasonable, for example, that people who attend college pay the cost rather than people who do not attend.
A lot of awesome names on this list, especially (for macro) Manuel Amador, Chris Edmond, Chad Jones, Greg Kaplan, Matthias Doepke, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Nicola Fuchs-Schundeln, Martin Schneider, probably others I missed.
A simple tip for all research economists. Do not (exclusively) post links to journal versions of your articles, or to NBER versions of your working papers. Lots of people won't be able to access them, and fewer people will get to read and cite your work.
@cristinarellano
and I wrote a paper, a long time ago, about one possible benefit of dollarizing. The idea is that, once dollarized, a country cannot use monetary policy, via seigniorage, to respond to fluctuations in spending needs. Thus, preserving access to international
Our original COVID paper is finally published, and available ungated here. In the final version we introduced an analytically tractable model of optimal redistribution through taxes, transfers, and government debt. We show that the extent of optimal shutdowns is quite sensitive
For those (still) interested in COVID, shutdowns, unemployment, redistribution through taxes & transfers, vaccines etc,
@andyecon
, Krueger, Rios-Rull and I have drastically revised and updated our Health versus Wealth paper:
This is very very sad. I knew Tom from Penn, co-taught with him at Stern, and worked recently with him and Vincenzo on a special issue of RED to commemorate his revolutionary Frontiers of Business Cycles book. He was wonderful as an economist and a friend.
So sad to say that my PhD adviser, Tom Cooley, passed away yesterday after a battle with heart disease, which he had fought his entire adult life. A wonderful and loving person, an exceptional economist, and a great friend, Tom will be deeply missed, but never forgotten.
City I dislike: St Paul
City I think is overrated: St Paul
City I like: Minneapolis
City I love: Minneapolis
City I feel most myself in: Minneapolis
City I still need to visit: St Paul
City I dream of living in: Minneapolis
City I dislike: Chelmsford
City I think is overrated: Brookline
City I like: Somerville
City I love: Boston
City I feel most myself in: Newton
City I still need to visit: Taunton
City I dream of living in: Wellfleet
Volume 39 (January 2021) is out!
Learn about rare events, involuntary unemployment, production networks, inter-dealer trades, sectoral labor productivity, unobserved heterogeneity and skill loss, and much more.
Don't miss it!
People complain about gas prices, but gas in the US is pretty cheap. Suppose your car gets 35mpg and you drive 35 miles per day. You need 1 gallon of gas per day, which is about $3.50. About the same price as a latte at Starbucks. Less than the cost of public transport.
I discussed a very nice paper by
@TitanAlon
, Kim,
@LagakosDavid
and VanVuren on the impact of Covid-19 across the world income distribution at the IMF Annual Research Conference in November. David's presentation and my discussion (at minute 25) are here:
Zhifeng Cai and I have updated our paper on college tuition. The message is that the main driver of tuition growth since 1990 is widening income inequality.
If you looking to hire in macro / labor this year, you should be on the Job market. Because Job Boerma is fantastic! Here is his webpage: Let me know if you would like to know more.
Egor explores optimal taxation of single and married couples. Should the US move to tax at the individual rather than household level? Egor finds the answer is no, but married couples should be taxed in a less progressive way than singles.
Candidate
@egor_malkov
looks at "Optimal Income Taxation of Singles and Couples." His research agenda centers on topics in macroeconomics, labor economics, and public economics.
Egor's advisors are
@fatihguvenen
, Larry Jones, and Fabrizio Perri.
@dynarski
They are absolutely top notch economists. But their argument is primarily moral and political rather than economic. They simply want a society in which there are no very rich people.
Incredibly excited to join the
@MinneapolisFed
Research Division in a permanent position. Between the Fed and the U, this is a truly remarkable environment for a macroeconomist. We're thrilled to be here. Thanks to all that have made it happen.
This is extremely generous. But likely not the best use of money. Returns to early childhood education are likely much larger. Also, the research Bloomberg references shows that elite private schools are not the best engines of upward social mobility.
@FOX9
@MayorFrey
I don’t know about the foot traffic statistics, but the crime numbers in the article are wrong. Robberies are up 25 percent year on year. Homicides are flat, it down. (I’m looking at the Minneapolis crime dashboard).
Old and young disagree about the optimal size and duration of shutdowns, as do workers vulnerable to shutdown versus essential workers. When redistribution is costly, disagreement is especially acute, and more moderate shutdowns are better
@JonSteinsson
Yours is a nice essay Jon. But it’s not as though we didn’t know MPCs were big in heterogeneous agent models till HANK came along. My dissertation was on that topic. I agree that monetary economics was late to heterogeneity, but not so much macro in general.
EU imports of Russian Energy
1. Oil:
Jan - May 21: €25 bn
Jan - May 22: €43 bn
=> +71%
2. Gas:
Jan - May 21: €6 bn
Jan - May 22: €21 bn
=> +260%
3. Coal:
Jan - May 21: €1.5 bn
Jan - May 22: €4.0 bn
=> +170%
You wouldn't know there's a terrible war in Ukraine...
Many people seem to be arguing that (1) shutdowns matter very little if at all for economic activity and (2) shutdowns matter a lot for reducing COVID infection and mortality. These two views are inconsistent.
Johannes is a great student -- & co-author! His exciting JMP is about variation across US states in MPCs out of stimulus checks (a la
@ProfJAParker
& Souleles). He correlates this variation with cross-state variation in tax progressivity & connects the two in a structural model.
Johannes Fleck's job market paper shows that fiscal policies of US state governments determine the household consumption response to stimulus payments 👉
#EconJobMarket
#EconTwitter
#EUI
Call for papers!
As part of the NBER's Summer Institute,
@raquel1fernan
Roland Bénabou and I are organizing the "Inequality and Macroeconomics" workshop on July 16-17, 2024.
Submission deadline is March 21.
Please submit here:
The college application essay is the perfect application for ChatGPT. Writing these essays is a painful task, and automating it should allow students to devote more time to their studies. Perhaps ChatGPT can grade the essays too, delivering fairer and more efficient admissions.
There is apparently a deal in place for Uber and Lyft minimum payments to drivers in Minnesota. The Strib article lays out the per mile and per minute rates, and gives an example in which a driver would make at least $17.45 for a 15 minute trip. The city of Minneapolis initially
Hmmm... maybe student evaluations don't actually measure learning? Sections had the same teachers & curricula, except some were given cookies at the final class. In the class evaluation, teaching scores for the🍪group were much higher & they also reported they learned 20% more!
@MplsWard9
Jason. You voted against funding to recruit and retain police in Minneapolis. Who do you think should be responding to and investigating these violent crimes?
Current stimulus proposal implies large increases in marginal tax rates for households in the phase-out region. A married household with 2 kids making between $150 and $200k will face around a 10pp higher marginal rate (losing 4*1,400 as income rises from 150 to 200k). 1/2
@binarybits
But what do these stats even mean? Are all these paycheck to paycheck households contributing zero to 401k’s? Are they building zero home equity? Are they investing nothing in their kids’ educations?
@mdoepke
Reminds me of this paper by Boar and Lashkari which argues that children from affluent families tend to choose more fun but less lucrative jobs (eg academia).
The latest version of our paper on the US net foreign asset position. We will present it this Friday at the NBER EF&G Winter Meeting , and are looking forward to
@helene_rey
's discussion.
I would like to extend a warm welcome to our three most recent hires: Mark Wright
@MarkLJWright
(FRB- Minneapolis), Alexander Bick (Arizona State) and Serdar Ozkan
@serdarozkanEN
(previously Toronto). Welcome aboard
@stlouisfed
research: .
The
#ASSA2023
is dead. This major policy section on “Economic Shocks, Crises, and their Consequences” once would have been a major event at the ASSA with a full in-person panel. Of the 5 panelists, only 2 are here. The 3 from the sacred zip code did not bother to show up.