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Jack Soslow Profile
Jack Soslow

@JackSoslow

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Member of the Investing Staff @a16z

San Francisco
Joined March 2016
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
14 days
We believe ARVR is among the most underrated markets today. Most people fixate on past (and current) missteps, leading to assumptions that are simply wrong. With ~30m Meta Quest headsets sold and a favorable industry outlook, we think the time is now. ⬇️
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
5 years
College is broken. Teachers care more about research than teaching. Students care more about grades & jobs than learning. The college itself cares more about donations & rankings than education. Something needs to change
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
2011 — Software is eating the world. 2022 — AI is eating software. The most interesting trends, papers, and observations you may have missed in AI for 2022. (read on)
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
Two years ago I fell down the AI rabbit hole. Since then, I tried to get (and stay) up to speed in AI — consuming all relevant papers, podcasts, blogs, etc... I could find. Today, I'm sharing a first pass of my reading list. Hopefully it's helpful!
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
2021 was the year of VR, and I have one stat to show you why: This year, Oculus has sold more headsets than Microsoft did Xboxs. This marks the beginning of ARVR's predominance. A thread on ARVRs growth, use-cases, and future below:
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
a16z is building its Games Startup School, SPEEDRUN. It couldn't come at a better time. With AI + new platforms, I believe it's the best moment in history to start a games company. What to build? Well, here's a cheat sheet of AI x Games ideas we're looking for applicants in. 🤝
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
OpenAI surpasses Bing for the first time in website traffic
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
Two years ago I made a fantasy football draft optimizer. I won 2/7 leagues my first year and 1/4 last year (top scorer in 2/4). This year I'm open sourcing the model + pick optimizer. Last post in the thread has the link.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
For the past year, I've tried to meet most companies building at the intersection of AI x Games. Today, I'm excited to share the cornucopia of interesting companies in the space. Here it is: AI x Games – Application Layer — Market Map WIP Figma link below
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
SF is back With its highest net migration rate in >6 years, the phoenix rises.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
Life update
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
In honor of the @StabilityAI launch party — a chart of Github stars for key repositories over time. Congrats to @EMostaque for going vertical and @ClemDelangue for passing Bitcoin
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
8 months
Social is VR's killer app Similar to how social was the killer app of previous computing platforms, we believe social is the killer app of ARVR. If you’ve played in Social VR, you’ve probably noticed one thing - it’s a kid’s world. These kids do nearly anything but play the…
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
5 years
I compiled all the public NFL analytics research I could find. This way anyone can stay up to date on the work being done. Click the link! I obviously missed a bunch, but I made the doc editable for anyone. So please add your work and edit the wording!
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
Why open source? Because: - It's still unfinished - I didn't have time to build a software product - I'd like people to use it - I don't think any of my friends are going to figure the github out, so I still have some alpha Here it is!
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
Generative AI is the calculator for the creative mind
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
1) Papers released over time is accelerating. This is the backdrop for the recent overwhelming amount of AI progress. Let's dig in.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
2) Foundation models captured the zeitgeist. - Midjourney is the largest Discord ever. - Stable Diffusion is the fastest company repo reach 35k stars ever. - ChatGPT reached 1 million users in 5 days.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
5) Data is the new bottleneck Google compares two LLMs, where one has 4x less params but ~4x more data. The one with more data ends up significantly more accurate. Therefore for LLMs, compute is no longer the biggest lever, but rather data is.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
9 days
There's an impressive list of former Oculus employees who are founders of Series A+ companies: - Palmer Luckey, Founder of Anduril - John Carmack, CEO of Keen Technologies - Nate Mitchell, CEO of Mountaintop - Matt Hansen, Co-founder of Mountaintop - Nirav Patel, CEO of…
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
3) AI has begun improving itself. 1. AlphaTensor — Optimizes matrix multiplication 2. PrefixRL — Optimizes circuit placement on chips 3. LLMs can self improve — LLMs fine-tune on their own generations
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 months
This is incredible. By being unsupervised, Genie solves many of the problems inherent in AI video game generation. Just read through the paper and here's a quick summary. This paper introduces: 1. Latent Action Model (LAM) — with nothing other than video, the model infers…
@_akhaliq
AK
2 months
Google presents Genie Generative Interactive Environments introduce Genie, the first generative interactive environment trained in an unsupervised manner from unlabelled Internet videos. The model can be prompted to generate an endless variety of action-controllable virtual…
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
3 years
Ecstatic to announce that I've joined the a16z Consumer Investing team! 🚀🚀 I'm ready to utilize Data in Venture and learn from my spectacular peers in: @andrewchen , @conniechan , @omooretweets , @Tocelot , @sriramk , @kirbyman01 , @anneleeskates , @DCoolican , and @jeff_jordan
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
Excited to share a16z's investment alongside @andrewchen into Gym Class VR, the future of basketball! @Gymclassvr , @pavtalk , @HatthewMarris , @Juicebox775
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
4) Scaling Laws Improve Historically, AI has scaled through a power law. (IE log(scale) returns log(Y) benefit in accuracy) Meta shows that through data-pruning (IE disregard useless examples), you can achieve exponential scaling (big deal!)
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
12) AI Accelerating Fusion DeepMind was able to control inherently unstable plasma by using AI to coordinate a tokamak's many magnetic coils. It can shape + control plasma in new ways, and it's a huge unlock for fusion.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
All considered, the key trends I'm following in AI are: 1. Acceleration 2. The Democratization of AI 3. AI Improving Itself 4. US vs China — The latent space race 5. Software simulators to solve real world problems 6. Bridging domains — ie turning video data into 3d data
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
Here at @a16z GAMES FUND ONE - we see Games as one of the first verticals disrupted by Generative AI. Read our thinking here: And follow me, @gwertz , and @tkexpress11 for more in AI
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
15) The democratization of AI continues. It took 1 year for GPT-3 to see open source LLM alternatives It took 1 month for DALL-E 2 to see the same
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
Despite the public market’s signal, innovation persists. @a16z has many ARVR portcos (multiple unannounced) that are growing rapidly and looking to hire. If you’re interested in the future of computing, shoot me a dm and I’ll connect you to the right person on the right team.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
16 days
Sharing one chart from my VR megapost tomorrow The VR competitive landscape is extremely attractive for new devs:
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
1⃣ In 2019, Oculus launched the Quest, which achieved product market fit in casual, immersive gaming. The ensuing year Oculus launched the Quest 2 which improved headset performance, decreased size, and lowered the price. It unlocked social gaming and fitness.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
Excited to share a16z's investment into Voldex — a user generated content (UGC) games company with a presence on both Roblox and Minecraft!
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
6) Overfitting be gone! 2.0 Grokking shows that at certain scale on small algorithmic datasets, AI transitions from fitting generalized curves to literally "grokking" the dataset generation rule. This makes them perfect predictors.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
7) Learning capabilities can "emerge" within LLMs After a certain scale, LLMs can go from slowly learning something to rapidly learning something. LLMs picking up on the underlying pattern is called emergence. It applies to addition, QandA, and more
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 months
We're thrilled to announce @a16zGames investment in @kaedim3d ! As costs soar and studios seek solutions, Kaedim's approach stands out. By empowering an internal art team with AI, Kaedim meets studios' requirements, reduces costs, and generates valuable data in the process. 🧵
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Jack Soslow
1 year
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
10) Coherence solved? Dreambooth mitigates the coherence problem in image generation (consistent generations) by binding a unique identifier to a fine-tuned model. This method powers the AI avatar creators, game asset generators, AI movies, and more.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
6⃣ Demand presence. VR is immersion. It commands your complete attention. Casual doomscrolling or async communication don't fit. Presence heavy use-cases include: Fitness @getsupernatural Social Interactions @recroom @VRChat Gaming Meditation @officialflowly Work @ImmersedVR
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
5 years
Proud to be named Special Teams MVP at the FCS Bowl. I went 4/4 NFL extra points and 3/4 on field goals the one miss being a 54 yarder into the wind.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
What players does it like in 2022? Top RBs: 1. Joe Mixon 2. D'Andre Swift 3. Jonathon Taylor Top WRs: 1. Davante Adams 2. JaMarr Chase 3. Cooper Kupp Top QBs: 1. Patrick Mahomes 2. Justin Herbert 3. Josh Allen Top TEs: 1. Travis Kelce 2. Mark Andrews 3. George Kittle
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
2⃣ Most game consoles have their marginal sales decrease over time. The opposite is the case with Oculus. The Quest 2 has ~2x more new users per day than it did at the same time last year.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
16) Academia accounts for a decreasing proportion of large scale AI papers. AI used to be siloed within large research institutions, then big tech, and now is accessible to all via APIs and open source.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
What players are sleepers? RBs: 1. Darrel Williams 2. Damien Harris 3. Josh Jacobs WRs: 1. Amon-Ra St. Brown 2. Hunter Renfrow 3. Tyler Lockett QBs: 1. Joe Burrow 2. Matt Stafford 3. Tom Brady TEs: 1. Mike Gesicki 2. Tyler Higbee 3. Tyler Conklin
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
Starting a live thread for my immediate reactions to Meta Connect 🤙 Excited for the announcement for the Quest Pro + all of the frontier research going on behind the scenes
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
9) The cost to create performant AI is decreasing. In the case of ImageNet, the cost to achieve 93% accuracy has halved in the past 2 years.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
8 months
2023 Fantasy Football Models update: 1. I've won 50% of leagues the past two years 2. The model outperforms ESPN by 20% and is improving 3. I built a simple web UI for anyone to use it Here's a summary thread - website link at the end:
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
3⃣ CCSInsight projects the ARVR industry to 6.5x in the next 5 years.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
That's all — huge s/o to @ykilcher for ML News and Paper Reviews, @soundboy and @nathanbenaich for their 2022 State of AI Report, and Stanford for their 2022 AI Index. Yannic YT — State of AI — AI Index —
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 month
Clearing up the occasional misconception about SPEEDRUN 1. This is not your typical "accelerator" — The analogy is less like YC, but more-so a program built to best serve Seed/Pre-Seed founders in-and-around a16z Games. 2. Exceptional founder quality — Of the 9 companies I…
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@speedrun
A16Z GAMES SPEEDRUN 🧊
1 month
SR003 APPLICATIONS JUST 𝑫𝑹𝑶𝑷𝑷𝑬𝑫! Want to secure $750K for your startup? Apply to SPEEDRUN here: (takes 15 mins!) Application Deadline: May 19, 2024 Notified of Selection: End of June at the latest! Program Dates: July 29 - Oct 20 in Los Angeles ☀️
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
9⃣ Altogether, VR isn't "coming", it's already here. Alongside this new form factor we'll see new games, tools, and ways to work based around presence. If you're building in ARVR or are contributing to the space, please reach out! Also, let me know what I missed below!
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
9 months
At the a16z AI Revolution @Tocelot - “In what ways will AI impact games? @DavidBaszucki - “The better question is the antithesis… in what ways will it not?”
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
a16z is a VR true believer — investing in VR since the beginning. Today, we double down and proudly announce our investment in @RealAlta — partnering with them to bring people together across all of VR! 🕶️🥂
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
"Leveraging AI will be the most important skill of the decade, and it will require a complete restructuring in how most people think" A fun slack conversation with colleagues @Tocelot , @vijaypande , @conniechan , and @BornsteinMatt !
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
6 months
EA in a nutshell
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
11) Diplomacy cracked. In Diplomacy, you try to conquer Europe against 6 other players/countries. It is a game of cooperation, negotiation, and manipulation. CICERO achieves human level performance by tying strategic reasoning to natural language.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
5⃣ Meet the medium. Unlike consoles, VR's inputs are not buttons. VR's inputs are the movement of your arms and head. Apps that exploit the inputs "meet the medium" and defeat motion sickness. Gorilla Tag, @BeatSaber , @townshiptale , and @SUPERHOTTHEGAME do this well.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
20) US banned NVIDIA and AMD from exporting their best GPUs to China. This will hamper China AI R&D at least temporarily. The question is how long it will take for China to build their own similar quality GPUs (which is trade secret and conceivably very... very... hard to do)
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
14) The foundation model land grab After the explosion of LLMs and text-to-image models, there's been a race to be the first mover in new domains: - Audio (Whisper, Harmonai), - Video (Make-a-Video, Imagen Video) - 3d (Dreamfusion, Magic3d)
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
4⃣ While VR has lower timespent per session than consoles, VR is a new form factor with unique use-cases. The use-cases that thrive in VR primarily do three things: 1. Meet the medium. 2. Demand presence. 3. Enable the implausible.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
8 months
Funny enough - games are now one of the healthiest forms of media. The "sedation" of America's youth is a huge problem: - Attention spans have decreased from 12 to 8 seconds. - Kids want "decision free conveyor belts" of media - Rise of passive media. Kids are posting less and…
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
18) The US vs China "Latent Space Race" is heating up The US is releasing the most AI research with China #2 , but China's rate of growth is faster.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
13) Bridging domains for more data To create a labeled Minecraft dataset, OpenAI used inverse dynamics on Minecraft videos to find the user's actions. This data collection across domains (video<>3d) will become more common as data becomes more valuable
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
4 months
A question I ask AI founders, "Are you building a tool or a soul?" A tool: - Does what you want - Does no more A soul: - Has wants, needs, desires - Can choose to not follow orders - Has a life outside your query
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
5 years
On the train I looked at the relationship of game-theory in NFL play-calling. What I found is that on an average passes are more valuable. However, in situations where the defense expects you to pass, runs are more valuable. No surprise but deserves more investigation.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
4 years
I'll be joining the Oculus Data Science team at Facebook. This is a really big deal for me, and I couldn't be more excited. Oculus is creating the future of interfaces, right now, live, on air. The people there are so smart, thoughtful, and innovative. I can't wait to help. 😎
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 months
For the past three months, I've had the pleasure to work hand-in-hand with these 9 companies. They're going to change the world. Here they are!
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
7⃣ Enable the implausible In the headset, VR is reality, and through code, VR has the flexibility to recreate the best of almost any experience. Want to fish? @realVRFishing Climb Everest? @theclimb Dodge a punch? @thrillofthefight Ender's Game? @EchoVR
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
19) The US is lagging behind China in new chip projects and the speed to production. This is important as all models scale alongside compute. The US recently passed a $250b in semiconductor R&D + production to hopefully soften this disparity.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 months
Today, generative 3D struggles with topology due to architectural limitations. Most models use score-distillation-sampling (SDS) or its derivatives. SDS leverages neural rendering not surface geometry. Extracting clean meshes from NeRFs remains an open research problem.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 month
The Seed and The Soil Entrepreneurs are like gardeners, planting the seeds of their ideas in the fertile soil of markets. The seed is the product, the embodiment of the entrepreneur's vision and hard work. The soil is the market, the users, the very environment in which the…
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
3 years
I love the NFL because both these humans can play the same sport professionally
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
Oculus started with missionaries religiously dedicated to creating the next computing platform. Then came the mercenaries — FB/Insta folk running towards Oculus's internal funding. I had to leave. The complacency plague was too much. Thank you for fighting it @ID_AA_Carmack
@ID_AA_Carmack
John Carmack
1 year
I resigned from Meta, and my internal post got leaked to the press, resulting in some fragmented quotes. Here is the full thing:
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
Why did I make it? 1. ESPN rankings are trash 2. ML is better than humans in high dimensional, numeric domains 3. I was in 7 fantasy leagues out of college and didn't have time for them all 4. I want to win 5. I would rather be good at data-science than be a football savant
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
6 years
Proud of this GIF
@PennFB
Penn Football
6 years
14:13 (2Q) DID YOU SEE THAT Jack Soslow Good From 48 YARDS! He's 2-for-2 Today And Penn Leads, 20-3! #CollegeKickers #UPrising
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
@sama The only way out is through. So, accelerate.
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Jack Soslow
1 year
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
8) AI only scales through power laws. BNSL asserts that AI scales through a combination of power-laws with different slopes at different scales. It accurately models double descent and helps explain phenomena like emergence or grokking @ethanCaballero
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
4 months
Absolutely pumped to be working with The Promenade's NPC-suite on their mission to create previously impossible games with AI. First of many in this year's Speedrun class! @npceo_ @jdmtr_ @RealSelimShady
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@npceo_
Harvey Michael Pratt
4 months
let’s fucking GO
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
In completely unrelated news — I'm going to be moving into Andrew's SF home
@andrewchen
andrew chen
2 years
I have some personal updates. Moving to LA, a new role at a16z, and more! Here's the post: My blog is officially back! I’m excited to restart my writing here, after a long hiatus.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
Incredibly excited to be teaming up @andrewchen , @Tocelot , @gwertz , and @zebird0 on a16z's new Games Fund! I've been a gamer my entire life. Growing up games helped me find community, explore alternate identities, and gave me the confidence I could accomplish great things.
@Tocelot
Jon Lai
2 years
thread/ announcing the @a16z games fund - a new $600M fund dedicated to investing in the best founders in the games industry! over the past decade, our firm has been privileged to back some truly amazing game teams. our new fund accelerates these efforts. more 👇
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
We are doubling down on PrismsVR. VR is built for immersion, focus, and aligning our digital experience with our daily one. There are few better uses for the technology than education, and few more disruptive companies and founders than @PrismsOfReality + @aganguly26
@aganguly26
Anurupa Ganguly
1 year
We’re thrilled to announce a $12.5 million Series A round led by @a16z @jeff_jordan @anneleeskates @JackSoslow . This milestone comes on the heels of launching on the @Meta Quest store, expanding the reach of PrismsVR math literacy solution for all.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
Bots deserve rights! This + many more hot takes on the inaugural @a16zGames podcast. Here, @Chen , @Tocelot , and I walk through AI advancements and its applications in games.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
For all of these ideas, someone who starts a company today has an opportunity to be the market's first mover. If you're interested in any of the above, games-adjacent technology, or starting a games company at large, please apply to SPEEDRUN!
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
11 months
Some views from last night
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@Chen
Lester
11 months
A huge thank you to @100Thieves , @Zedd , @NoahJ456 , and everyone who turned up for CITY OF GAMES. Our goal was to gather the gaming industry of LA together all under one roof - from creators, founders, platforms, and investors. Mission accomplished! 📸 : @LoganDodson
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
1. "Social Engineering" Core Loops — skill expression is either mechanical (wombo combo) or strategic (checkmate) + AI enables believable, programmable social interaction Opportunity — Games for interacting with AIs (ie coordinating with 20 AIs to escape a prison)
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
A sign of the singularity is AI improving itself. Two recent papers move in this direction: 1. AlphaTensor — optimizing matrix multiplication with AI 2. PrefixRL — optimizing arithmetic circuit design for NVIDIA's H100 AI chip
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
8⃣ Today, VR has surpassed an incumbent game console in sales, but VR is capable of far more. Of course expect metaverses to proliferate. But, growing commensurately will be use-cases that require presence such as deep work, collaboration, education, and mental health.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
AI is far-and-away the largest category of events at SF and LA #techweek — already 28 in SF and 18 in LA. Every day it seems like another hackathon, workshop, or meetup are added. You can check out the events here:
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
The surest way to lose the next computing platform is by sitting on the sidelines claiming, "I told you so!" whenever negative VR news comes out. @Gymclassvr @PrismsOfReality @readyplayerme @RealAlta @SandboxVR are all ripping. We choose to bet on the future.
@andrewchen
andrew chen
2 years
haters have come out for VR/AR, the metaverse, etc - as we see what kinds of R&D is required to build these kinds of platforms @JackSoslow has an amazing thread (charts attached) on the good trends: I'm bullish too, and here's what I'm investing in👇
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
no, the images aren't AI generated yes, the birds are paid actors
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
17) Horizontal model aggregators + tools have been growing Two examples of this are Huggingface and Replicate. Huggingface, for example, had a "gradually, then suddenly" moment, where they grew pretty consistently until the DALL-E mini release, when usage went up 4.5x overnight.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
AI's rate of innovation is quickly approaching the point where no individual can synthesize all of the new research.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
21 days
People ask: "What's going to be the first one person billion dollar company?" The answer exists and it's @LemmingVR with @GorillaTagVR * *Kerestell has since built a strong team, but throughout much of Gtag's explosive growth Kerestell was the only person running the business
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
2 years
As you may have seen yesterday — we at a16z are ecstatic to be leading the Seed of PrismsVR, a VR edtech company! Prisms is a case study in two things: 1. A founder with an indomitable spirit 2. How technology is a force for good @aganguly26 @PrismsOfReality mini 🧵
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
1 year
4. "AI-enabled" Game Studios — games are expensive, long, RnD projects + generative AI pushes the cost of creation to zero + AAA poorly suited to change workflows. Opportunity — Utilize AI tools and flexible asset pipelines to compete with AAA.
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@JackSoslow
Jack Soslow
14 days
1) The VR market is larger than perceived: - Meta alone sells ~10m headsets annually, comparable to Xbox. - The Meta Quest 2 is the top selling console on Amazon. - Meta Quest store has generated >$2b in rev or >$500m annually, comparable to UGC payouts.
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