James Traina @EconTraina Twitter profile | Pikagi

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James Traina

@EconTraina

1,135

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503

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Economist @sffed | PhD @ChicagoBooth & @UChi_Economics | Competition, Productivity, & Technology

https://t.co/G37Kf0XFsU

Joined December 2021

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

2 years

Market power in US manufacturing: it's about wage markdowns, not price markups! Firms with market power in product markets restrict all variable inputs symmetrically. Firms with market power in labor markets restrict labor inputs *more* than other variable inputs like materials.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

5 months

Fun as can be, to dunk on Gen Z... It looks like the US result is an artifact of a huge outlier in 2022, after the sampling methodology changed. Here's what the young men time series looks like with 2022 dropped. Code available here:

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@jburnmurdoch

John Burn-Murdoch

5 months

NEW: an ideological divide is emerging between young men and women in many countries around the world. I think this one of the most important social trends unfolding today, and provides the answer to several puzzles.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

Alice Wu was the first to quantify EJMR's toxicity *in her undergrad thesis.* I haven't seen it mentioned at all today. Which feels... Weird? I can't seem to find the words as to why. But I appreciate it so I'm tweeting it.

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Gender Bias among Professionals: An Identity-Based Interpretation

Abstract. This paper measures gender bias in discussions about women versus men in an online professional forum. I study the content of posts that refer to each gender and the transitions in the...

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@EconTraina

James Traina

5 months

You can see things really start to break in 2022.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

I thought you needed price instruments to estimate demand… ( @steventberry @philhaile ) … But you don't! ( @_amackay @NateHMiller )

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@EconTraina

James Traina

5 months

Lots of warnings in the 2022 GSS Codebook.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

9 months

What role does structural change play in the fall of the US labor share? 🧵 1/n Ben Bridgman ( @BenBridgmanEcon ) and Berthold Herrendorf offer an illuminating framework built on Input-Output links in their 🚨 new draft 🚨!

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@EconTraina

James Traina

5 months

@GSS_NORC @FT @_alice_evans @Noahpinion @NateSilver538 @tylercowen @JustinWolfers Extra check on views for 18-29. Even with 2022, nothing jumps out!

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@EconTraina

James Traina

5 months

Caveat emptor, I made these on a plane yesterday because the article matched my prior a little *too* comfortably 😅

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

🚨 Public-firm profit rates have fallen to *half* their 1980 values 🚨, which explains why financial market rates fell despite rising/steady *aggregate* profit rates. New draft with @ASollaci & @CarterDavisFin , & outstanding support from @TonBobrov ...🧵

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

Law of Iterated... Quantiles?? 🚨 New draft up 🚨, economic theory with many applications by @kaihaoyang2020 and Alex Zentefis. #EconTwitter

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@EconTraina

James Traina

8 months

Super cool work on markups and economic profits! Micro + Aggregation = Macro Aggregation research is only going to get more important as we develop richer large-scale microdata. (But let's keep all our micro-macro jokes 😂).

@BrianCAlbrecht

Brian Albrecht

@BrianCAlbrecht

8 months

More on aggregate markups 👀 “The profit share has been constant at 18% of GDP because the increase in monopoly rents has been completely offset by rising fixed costs and changes in technology.” By Thomas Hasenzagl and Luis Pérez

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@EconTraina

James Traina

5 months

Tagging possibly interested parties. I'm happy to add more checks or figures. I'm also happy to be wrong! 😅 @GSS_NORC @FT @_alice_evans @Noahpinion @NateSilver538 @tylercowen @JustinWolfers

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

Network economics has the coolest figures.

@BruxConf2023

Antitrust, Regulation and the Political Economy

1 year

Bruno Pellegrino ( @BPellegrino_UMD ): Hybrid IO-macroeconomic view: need to look across many different sectors. Network theory of market power- an economy is a network made up of nodes (products). Distribution of centrality in the network indicates concentration @Caffar3Cristina

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@EconTraina

James Traina

2 years

OLS bias is small when estimating monetary policy rules! "Taylor rule estimation by OLS," by Carvalho, Nechio, & Tristão (JME 2021). Gated: Ungated:

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@EconTraina

James Traina

9 months

Would this paper have been published if there wasn't a null result penalty? 🤔

@EJ_RES

The Economic Journal

9 months

Recently accepted at EJ: ‘The Null Result Penalty’ by Felix Chopra, Ingar Haaland, Christopher Roth, Andreas Stegmann @Ingar30 @cp_roth @FelixChopra @RoyalEconSoc #EconTwitter

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@EconTraina

James Traina

9 months

I don’t care if it’s real analysis in particular. But one has to be deeply incurious not to take a proof-based math course before playing professional football.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

11 months

Why do we only have 1 candidate on the AEA presidential ballot? (Sorry for the naive question, I'm new!). @AEAjournals

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@EconTraina

James Traina

9 months

Meme by @PriceTheorist

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@BrianCAlbrecht

Brian Albrecht

@BrianCAlbrecht

9 months

Saying "supply and demand" can explain any price movement. A parrot can do that. Unfortunately, the alternatives are worse! Ex: some inflation stories are "prices went up because people raised prices." Now that's a theory that can explain everything!

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

Ad share of sales has been remarkably stable at 1% since 1980. Source: My Sunday date night with Compustat.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

Where we work is not where we buy! 🚨 New working paper 🚨 from the BEA develops *consumption* zones. The overlap with commuting zones is like 50/50!

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@BenBridgmanEcon

Benjamin Bridgman

@BenBridgmanEcon

1 year

I'm excited to share a new working paper Consumption Zones, joint with three of my BEA colleagues. We use credit card data to calculate local areas of consumption for services that require physical presence.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

6 months

@I_Am_NickBloom Even more puzzling, seems also true for other downturns!

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@EconTraina

James Traina

3 months

@Econ_4_Everyone Give me the book and shirt, and then I'll answer. If I'm wrong, I'll give them back.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@danascoot Fill your life with people that remind you you're so much more than your work.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

5 months

@janzilinsky @AllenDowney Yep! It's specifically in the 18-23 range. Here's my test chart from yesterday's push.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

10 months

It is sobering to recall that the shape of Japan's Phillips curve almost perfectly shadows Japan.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@jondr44 Aggregation. e.g. how should we estimate a macro elasticity using micro data?

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@EconTraina

James Traina

5 months

Why our binscatter axes are wrong, and what to do about it.

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@AEAjournals

AEA Journals

5 months

Forthcoming in the AER: "On Binscatter" by Matias D. Cattaneo, Richard K. Crump, Max H. Farrell, and Yingjie Feng.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

Life among the #EconTwitter (Leijonhufvud, 1973).

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

Half the US does not use the internet at broadband speeds.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

5 months

@AllenDowney @janzilinsky Fwiw, I tried all the weight variables to no avail. It's something really weird about that specific data point. We might all just be puzzling over a tail draw!

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

Does concentration = market power? Quantitatively, how far away have we moved with richer models? I see dynamics as key. But lots of folks assume repeated static oligopoly, no entry threats etc. Is variation in concentration still de facto driving our collective inference?

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

Should IO revisit the product approach to demand estimation?

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@EconTraina

James Traina

2 years

Metrics musings on two-way fixed effects (TWFE) -- I've been sleeping. Is this just Simpson's paradox? Can we just use multilevel modeling? i.e. if you think the model is y_it = b_i*x_it + ... Use each panel to estimate b_i, then average?

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@EconTraina

James Traina

11 months

Public-firm profit rates have fallen a lot since 1980! w/ @CarterDavisFin and @ASollaci

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@pedrohcgs @jfiksel1 We really need to stop defining random effects as uncorrelated by default! Most econ students learn this definition and move on thinking fixed effects are nearly always better. Meanwhile...

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Explaining Fixed Effects: Random Effects Modeling of Time-Series Cross-Sectional and Panel Data* |...

Explaining Fixed Effects: Random Effects Modeling of Time-Series Cross-Sectional and Panel Data* - Volume 3 Issue 1

www.cambridge.org

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@EconTraina

James Traina

11 months

"All errors are mine" is going to come back in style.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

6 months

Post-pandemic, firms aren't just raising prices. They're strategically testing new pricing and customer capital strategies! "We may have prices changing more quickly than they have before." @_amackay from @HarvardHBS NK economists take note!

Corporate America Is Testing the Limits of Its Pricing Power (Gift Article)

Firms may struggle to keep profits up if demand slows, but so far they are finding ways to keep margins wide.

www.nytimes.com

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@EconTraina

James Traina

10 months

Broadband isn't doom and gloom for US retail. Boring brick-and-mortar, same as it ever was! @ubtran popping our bubbles.

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How Broadband is Reshaping the Retail Industry and What It Means for the Future

The introduction of broadband internet has significantly influenced the retail sector in the United States. It has altered how consumers gather information, buy products, and interact with retailers....

thunderbird.asu.edu

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@EconTraina

James Traina

8 months

Wonderful economist, wonderful human.

@Econ_4_Everyone

John A. List

@Econ_4_Everyone

8 months

Look what my good friend @AliHortacsu just brought to my office! Every economist should take a look. I know that I will learn a lot from it. Can't wait to dig in. On a personal note, Ali has long been one of my favorite colleagues and people. Always supportive and generous.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

This paper is above all *practical*: It solves a common problem without just saying “get more data” or “add more structure.” It's also highly educational—I strongly recommend giving it a look, and adding it to your IO course lists!

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@EconTraina

James Traina

10 months

It is sobering to recall t-hacking is everywhere:

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@LHSummers

Lawrence H. Summers

10 months

It is sobering to recall that the shape of the past decade’s inflation curve almost perfectly shadows its path from 1966 to 1976 before it accelerated in the late 1970s.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

9 months

@paulgp Why would you title the case with your first name? Is this AI-generated parody?

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@EconTraina

James Traina

5 months

@SEAsheltie @jburnmurdoch I'm also very confused! @jburnmurdoch or @ftdata , would y'all mind posting code? Or just quickly commenting on what might be different? Mine is here:

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@NateHMiller Sutton's endogenous sunk costs. More relevant than ever in contemporary economies!

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@EconTraina

James Traina

9 months

This was Berthold Herrendorf's final paper before his untimely passing. His contributions to economics were invaluable. I'm in awe of Ben Bridgman for continuing with the paper. It's a wonderful way to honor Berthold's memory and legacy. (). 10/10

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@EconTraina

James Traina

10 months

My personal favorite from Olley and Pakes (1996): Modern production-function estimators come from a dynamic model of firm behavior!

@LeistenEcon

Matthew Leisten

10 months

Good thread, and consistent with my favorite slide deck in all of economics (from @PhilHaile ). Even "reduced form" estimating equations are (derived from) some theory! Anyway:

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

openai.Completion.create( model="text-davinci-003", prompt="Write an academic economics tweet about non-compete agreements that will get a lot of retweets.", temperature=0, max_tokens=4000, top_p=1, frequency_penalty=0, presence_penalty=0)

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

Our research shows public-firm profit rates have halved since 1980…

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

Nonfinancial domestic private-firm profit rates have doubled! So if we have high market power, it's probably in private firms.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

2 years

My most popular work in econometrics is with Stéphane Bonhomme. Very accessible, no proofs. Nothing is robust. Nothing is identified. Bonhomme à la Bresson #EconTwitter #metricstotheface

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The UChicago Economics Skit Show 2017 presentsa Boyer, Sollaci, and Traina productionle bonhommeWritten by Stephane Bonhomme and James TrainaStarring Stephan...

www.youtube.com

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@paulgp @Susan_Athey Free coffee.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

One really cool application is on the Nevo cereal dataset. Demand elasticities are the same, but the standard errors are halved!

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@realChrisBrunet Gish gallop garbo no thanks.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

6 months

@PikettyWIL Excellent thread! In the spirit of open inquiry, since they don't really have a platform, if they write a reply, would y'all be up for tweeting it?

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@EconTraina

James Traina

10 months

@Jabaluck I parsed it a little differently: Should we ask questions that are only highly informative conditional on findings? These questions distort researcher incentives. We're agents, too!

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@EconTraina

James Traina

6 months

@gabriel_zucman OK, trying to follow seriously. In my first look at the Auten-Splinter work, it seems the biggest change is from measuring the tax base consistently through time. But this thread doesn't mention that at all? No “sample,” “marriage,” “dependent,” or “resident.” What's going on?

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@jmb112485 Warning shot.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

2 years

@wwwojtekk Yep! I'd be surprised if Walmart behaved differently. Contrarian view is Walmart might have more local monopolies: I'm surprised someone hasn't combined the two insights yet. Just check if average local concentration predicts firm pricing rules.

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Zone Pricing in Retail Oligopoly

(February 2019) - We quantify the welfare effects of zone pricing, or setting common prices across distinct markets, in retail oligopoly. Although monopolists can only increase profits by price...

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

We propose an alternative hypothesis: Aggregate profit rates track the return on capital for all firms, but financial market rates track the cost of capital for *public firms only*. (Private equity literature suggests private firm returns have *not* fallen).

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@ben_golub "Also Gauss did it first."

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@AnthonyLeeZhang Therapy.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

9 months

@KhoaVuUmn From @shaikhecon 's 1974 @restatjournal paper, "Laws of Production and Laws of Algebra."

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

…matching trends in financial markets. So probably low market power in public firms.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

3 years

@doggonomics Doggos used to get two treats for every trick, but now they only get one. (Roborks bamboozle hoomans). 🐶 🐶

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

Just noticed a 🚨 new draft 🚨 was posted, an excellent opportunity to start my New Year's resolution to tweet about papers I really like. Here's my sketch simplification, imprecise, but I hope accurate…

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@EconTraina

James Traina

6 months

@conlon_chris @greg_ip @Noahpinion

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

But we add another puzzle: Over the past 40 yrs, private & public firm profit rates have diverged. Why??

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@EconTraina

James Traina

2 years

@BrianCAlbrecht Compustat concentration measures are iffy. Well-known in finance but maybe not in economics. See the canonical or more recently @DrJanKeil 's

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The Limitations of Industry Concentration Measures Constructed with Compustat Data: Implications...

Abstract. Industry concentration measures calculated with Compustat data, which cover only the public firms in an industry, are poor proxies for actual ind

academic.oup.com

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@EconTraina

James Traina

10 months

#Caturday memories with the kiddos.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

Our results indicate estimates of economic profits and aggregate markups *using public-firm data* might be substantially biased. e.g., Compustat, or mixing national accounts with financial markets data…

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@EconTraina

James Traina

2 years

New batch of True Citrus arrived. These things increased my daily water threefold. Here's what 2000 packets looks like. @BrianCAlbrecht @truelemon

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@EconTraina

James Traina

10 months

Law v. Economics

@nytimes

The New York Times

10 months

In Opinion “Americans have been living as subjects in a large-scale experiment in letting big companies do as they please, and the consequences are increasingly apparent in daily life,” the editorial board writes.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

10 months

@nominalthoughts I'd only trust @Econ_Sandy for this decision.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

2 years

@wwwojtekk Possibly related: Walmart isn't in the Nielsen retail scanner data.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

9 months

@ChadSyverson on the macroeconomics of antitrust enforcement at the @StiglerCenter competition conference this summer--- 🚨👇🧵 2 remarks at the end of the thread!

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Antitrust Effects: The US Economy

Antitrust enforcement in the United States has undergone a steady decline since a peak in the 1970s. As we explored in past editions of this conference, this...

www.youtube.com

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@mjmill611 @momin_rayhan @Blair_Vorsatz The original cat dad economist: Zvi Griliches.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@ellliottt @DAcemogluMIT @rodrikdani Very cool, added to my reading list! Looks like a close complement to my classmate's dissertation:

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@EconTraina

James Traina

9 months

Two remarks: A big rise in markups would imply an implausibly big fall in the aggregate labor share, cf. discussion in Barkai and Benzell ( @SBenzell ): 2. Might be labor markdowns, not product markups 😁()! 8/n

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@EconTraina

James Traina

6 months

@TDeryugina How do general interest journals balance editorial leniency differences across fields?

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@EconTraina

James Traina

3 months

@Lprochon This tweet influenced me, so #8 is false and markets don't clear.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

10 months

Having known @skominers for over a decade, there is zero chance that @skominers would perpetuate any eigenmeme at all. It is absolutely clear that the anomalous eigentweets are part of an elaborate eigeneigen scam. @kaihaoyang2020 @ElliotLip @BrianCAlbrecht

@skominers

Scott Kominers

10 months

Having known @0xMojojo for over a decade, there is zero chance that @0xMojojo would be able to explain what an eigenvalue is. It is absolutely clear that the anomalous eigenvalues do not match his character, which is very stable @0xMojojo @allsee @1MrPapi @0xleefoundation

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@Andrew___Baker @momin_rayhan @achenfinance Here's another fun one from the accounting literature: Compustat itself makes a lot of iffy standardization choices. And they're big enough to drive key results behind highly cited papers. But at least we're all using it so that's good I think?

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@mfariacastro Or maybe daylight saving time is messed up.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

2 years

@BrianCAlbrecht @HasvanVlokhoven For a slight wrinkle, theory doesn't tell you which weight to use. The EMX result suggests cost weights, but that's for a model with homogenous production technology, which isn't how we estimate it in the microdata!

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@EconTraina

James Traina

6 months

@conlon_chris @greg_ip @Noahpinion

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@EconTraina

James Traina

10 months

@The_Equationist When education, culture, and community work together, wonder emerges.

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What makes Tamil Nadu churn out so many chess champs? - Times of India

Here is what GrandMasters and chess Olympiad coaches have to say about how Tamil Nadu has created the right culture and ecosystem for chess to thrive

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@BrianCAlbrecht @ArshiaHashemi @BasilHalperin @luiscanyamel @jamesbrandecon Rents: Payments Without Production Market Power: Markups, Markdowns, etc.* *You can add qualifications here. For example, does a firm "have low market power" if it sells at a low markup today to cause a high markup tomorrow? cf. Viner (1932) on marginal costs.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

I know a few classic arguments for the characteristics approach, like dimensionality and heterogeneity. But it also seems like we've got much better data and tricks now.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@BrianCAlbrecht You need an input wedge to rationalize the data! Non-neutral productivity, adjustment costs, or (my own view) input market power. Excellent paper and post.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

Non-compete agreements can have a significant impact on labor markets, leading to reduced wages and fewer job opportunities. #econ #labor #noncompete

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

Suppose you have a model of demand and supply: s = f(p) + e c = g(x) + u Market shares s, prices p, marginal costs c, and covariates x.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

11 months

@gp_mihalache @AEAjournals Arrow's Possibility Theorem, the lesser known of the two.

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

The gap is a “profit puzzle”: Why don't they profit by borrowing at the lower rate and investing at the higher rate? Markups? Risk? Intangible capital?

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

This paper shows you could instead use the moment E[eu] = 0. Simple and effective!

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@florianederer @NateHMiller @conlon_chris Yes, though I believe if DLEU markups are estimated with a national price index, we mechanically shouldn't expect any subnational (i.e. industry) correlation with prices. Directly follows from Klette & Griliches (1996) or Bond et al. (2021), right @ArshiaHashemi ?

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

Have you ever wondered why aggregate profit rates went up a little, while financial market rates like Treasury or bond yields went down *a lot*?

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@BrianCAlbrecht You might be interested in this excellent review of related evidence:

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Is Concentration Driving Inflation?

A recent Boston Fed policy brief argues it is. I'm not sure.

www.economicforces.xyz

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@EconTraina

James Traina

1 year

@xftrebbi Each first-order condition gives you a joint wedge -- output and input. (e.g. markup and markdown). If you assume input wedges for two different inputs are both zero, they should recover the same output wedge. Devesh's excellent work shows that assumption is bunk!

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@EconTraina

James Traina

2 years

@florianederer @steventberry Berry (2022) - "Estimation of a model of entry in the airline book industry"

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