I don’t think I’ve said this loud enough, so here goes: Every economist I know believes that the single best way to ensure a robust recovery is to beat the bug. There’s no economic health without public health.
This guy's worth about $40 million, and took over $300k in PPP loans from the government just a few years back.
He asked the government to waive his loans, and indeed, his future loan payments were canceled.
You cannot “cancel” student loans any more than you can cancel a car payment or credit card debt. That money has to come from somewhere.
Proponents of this literally wanted student loan debt transferred to other people. It’s obnoxious.
This is totally true if you exclude 1948Q1,1948Q2,1950Q1,1950Q2,1950Q3,1950Q4,1951Q1,1951Q2,1951Q3,1952Q1,1952Q4,1953Q1,1953Q2,1954Q4,1955Q1,1955Q2,1955Q3,1956Q4,1958Q3,1958Q4,1959Q1,1959Q2,1960Q1,1961Q3,1961Q4,1962Q1,1963Q3,1964Q1,1964Q3,1965Q1,1965Q2,1965Q3,1965Q4,1966Q1,1968Q1
An obvious issue here is that the green line is cumulative and the yellow is annualized. People rightly point out that college professors are left wing ideologues.
A bigger issue with people like Wolfers is that he has an IQ of 110 but thinks it’s 140.
As you read various arguments floating around that perhaps we should ease public health restrictions to help the economy, I want you to notice that IN NO CASE ARE THESE ARGUMENTS BEING MADE BY ACTUAL ECONOMISTS.
This is stunning: Nearly half of the Q1 decline in GDP can be attributed to healthcare, which is presumably delaying of elective procedures.
It's a strange reality that in the midst of a pandemic, we have a healthcare-led recession.
It's just astonishing how much time and effort the entire Republican establishment has put into deconstructing every sentence
@Ocasio2018
says, even as they nod their heads silently at every nonsensical utterance coming out of the White House.
Holy cow: There was ZERO inflation last month. That's the headline number, which is well below expectations of +0.2%.
Also a good core inflation reading: +0.3%, also below expectations of 0.5%.
Finally some good news on the inflation front. We've likely seen the inflation peak.
Lotta headlines today about "inflation at 40-year high." We have a nice test of whether the media is symmetrically interested in good news because in the next month or so, it's likely that unemployment will hit a 50-year low. Will this attract as many breathless headlines?
Breaking News: President Trump threatened to end trade with G-7 nations that he said use unfair practices. “We’re like the piggy bank that everybody’s robbing.”
A third obvious issue: pretty sure the yellow line measures only legal immigration. I am worried about total numbers, of which illegal immigration is the largest part. No one can argue total immigration has decreased over the last 23 years, misleading charts be damned.
While shooing my son up to bed last night, he asked me to carry up an armload of stuffed animals. I told him that was his job. Okay, he said, but will you pick up any I drop? I agreed. He proceeded to drop each of them on the stairs, and I learned a lesson about moral hazard.
Exactly 2 years ago today, I published the first part of Dollar Endgame- Hyperinflation is Coming.
I never would have imagined I'd write a whole series, make it into a book, create a website, or dashboards, or be in Twitter Spaces talking in front of tens of thousands of people.…
A future economics student is going to look back at 2018 and ask me why the U.S. government embarked on a massive fiscal stimulus when unemployment was 4.1%.
I have no idea what to tell her.
Our dude here is not just a creeper, he’s also a terrible economist. He thinks his experiment reveals that his seat-mate has an absurd valuation of the right to wear a mask. But he’s forgotten about this thing called adverse selection…
I am on board a Delta flight right now. The person sitting next to me in first class refused $100,000 to remove her mask for the entire flight. No joke. This was after I explained they don’t work. She works for a pharma company.
Much too soon to use a school shooting to argue for gun control.
Far better to use a school shooting to argue for the end of an investigation into my campaign.
Very sad that the FBI missed all of the many signals sent out by the Florida school shooter. This is not acceptable. They are spending too much time trying to prove Russian collusion with the Trump campaign - there is no collusion. Get back to the basics and make us all proud!
A careful study of the Spanish flu reveals that “the earlier, more forcefully and longer cities responded, the better their economic recovery.”
In English: Public health shutdowns helped rather than hurt the economy.
“Hey dad, how did we do with the planes today?
Not bad. Only 5 or 6 enormous jets full of passengers crashed in US airspace today.
Great! Does that means it's safe to fly to grandma's for Thanksgiving?
Yes, son.”
— millions of American families right now (metaphorically)
It’s striking that Trump keeps raising Biden’s kids, but Biden won’t raise questions around Trump’s kids. There’s a fundamental decency to one of them.
There's this weird thing right now where populist thinkfluencers just make up historical claims, assert them as fact, and wistfully wonder why no one else understands.
Truth is: Elderly poverty was common, we passed social security, and it became rare.
Stunning, and even more so when you picture each of these flags surrounded by their own field of broken hearts belonging to grieving friends and family.
🇺🇸🦠 A sea of 650,000 white flags - one for every person who died from coronavirus in the US - is taking shape in front of the Washington Monument at the National Mall.
“In America: Remember” by
@sbfirstenberg
will be on display from Sept. 17 to Oct. 3.
#COVID19
Survey of leading economists:
"Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk."
0% disagree.
What if inequality were falling -- and in particular, delivering real wage gains to those who need it most -- and no-one noticed because they were arguing about a fake recession that never happened?
And don't even start me on the inanity of comparing levels (of unemployment) with growth rates (of GDP) or stocks (again, of unemployment) with flows (of new production).
BTW, if you liked this tweet thread, you'll love the first day of any introductory macroeconomics course.
GDP rose by +7.4% in Q3 (pretty much exactly as expected), after falling by -9.0% in Q2 and -1.3% in Q1. All told, the economy is -3.5% smaller than it was at the end of 2019.
For context, the economy is roughly as far below its peak as in the darkest days of the last recession
Herman Cain dropped out of the Republican primary amindst at least four allegations of sexual harrassment, so of course Presidential Trump wants to appoint him to the Federal Reserve.
According to the polls, Trump was meant to win:
- Iowa by 53 points (he won by 30)
- New Hampshire by 18 points (he won by 11)
- South Carolina by 28 points (he won by 20)
- Michigan by 62 points (he's up by 42)
4 states yields 4 examples of him dramatically underperformed polls
No, gas prices are not at an all-time high.
(A reminder: If you're making comparisons over time about economic burdens, you need to adjust for inflation.)
Obamacare explicitly allows health insurers to charge smokers more, given their personal responsibility for their ill health.
Why not extend this to people who are offered vaccinations, but refuse? Let 'em pay for *at least* the harm they do themselves.
(with exemptions, obv.)
Holy moly, jobs growth comes in hot again.
Payrolls +339k
Unemployment rate up a tick to 3.7% suggesting a weaker household survey
Revisions are big: +52k for March, +41k for April.
Don't believe the doom-and-gloom talk.
This economy is motoring along.
Mnuchin's lie might be the most breathtaking of all.
His entire argument for his tax cut is that it'll goose growth. He claims that a Treasury analysis shows this. He promised to release that analysis.
And now a Treasury whistleblower reveals HE NEVER ASKED FOR AN ANALYSIS.
Lemme ask one of those tone deaf economist questions that annoy almost everyone. Today, many families learned that the amount they owe on their mortgage has declined—in real terms—by 9.1% over the past year. Why do we hear so little about this? Why don't we see folks celebrating?
This is just lovely. Paul Milgrom had his phone off, so his former thesis adviser (and co-winner!) walked over to tell him that he had won the Nobel. Paul's wife (who was overseas) got a security notification from their Nest doorbell, so she watched live.
Lemme risk being serious at this moment and do some economics. No committee to re-open the economy can succeed if they're not perceived to be credible.
If you don't have faith that the federal government is looking out for your health, would you be willing to resume normal life?
and 1968Q2,1969Q1,1971Q1,1972Q1,1972Q2,1972Q4,1973Q1,1976Q1,1977Q2,1977Q3,1978Q2,1980Q4,1981Q1,1983Q4,1984Q1,1987Q4,1988Q4,1996Q2,1997Q2,1997Q3,1998Q3,1998Q4,1999Q3,1999Q4,2000Q2,2003Q3,2006Q1
8-year old son: "Dad, in the movie Cars, do the characters get car insurance or life insurance?"
...and that's how I know he was raised by two economists.
Lemme bore you by telling you why this tweet was an effing outrage.
The jobs numbers are released at 8:30am. The President is traditionally told the numbers the night before, but told to play them close to his chest.
But at 7:21am he's telling us all to tune in. Wonder why.
Blockbuster GDP report shows real GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.9% in Q3, blowing even optimistic expectations out of the water.
This economy is going gangbusters, and it's time for the doomers to apologize for being consistently wrong for two years.
Obama-era rule: Your investment advisor has to have your best interests at heart.
Trump’s revised rule: They just need to admit in the fine print that they don’t and they can suggest whatever investments give them the biggest kickbacks.
Just received a notice from Fidelity warning me that they don't necessarily have my best interests at heart when giving investment advice. RIP Fiduciary Rule.
WSJ poll: 74 percent of registered voters think inflation is headed in the wrong direction.
There is no reasoning with this many people being this wrong. It's not possible to shovel against that tide.
The problem schools and colleges face is that they made plans assuming that we'd make some public health progress. It was almost unimaginable that we would remain stuck in March, with the bug still in our communities, limited (and slow) testing, and no systematic contact tracing.
This is the first genuinely bad Trump pick for the Fed. But make no mistake: It's a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad pick. He hasn't gotten a thing right in twenty years, (check the record), and the Senate should not confirm him.
It is my pleasure to announce that
@StephenMoore
, a very respected Economist, will be nominated to serve on the Fed Board. I have known Steve for a long time – and have no doubt he will be an outstanding choice!
An absolutely bonkers example of the bad-news bias (and a failure to take Econ 101) in econ reporting: The
@WSJ
observes that the price of metals used in electric vehicles are crashing, and somehow infers that it will create shortages and snarl adoption of EV's.
Hey
@BernieSanders
, the government isn’t giving bankers a penny.
The Fed’s repo facility is, admittedly, complicated, so lemme explain: The Fed is *lending* $1.5 trillion to banks. Those banks put up collateral, so even if they don’t repay their loans, the govt won’t lose a cent
When we say it's time to provide health care to all our people, we're told we can't afford it.
But if the stock market is in trouble, no problem! The government can just hand out $1.5 trillion to calm bankers on Wall Street.
When anti-vaxxers rack up tens of thousands of dollars in hospital bills, who pays?
Think about it, and you'll realize that their political positions are effectively being subsidized by members of insurance pools, taxpayers, and the vaccinated.
This is where it’s helpful to know some economics: The location of the funds don’t change a thing.
If Apple wanted to invest in the US, it would’ve borrowed against its offshore funds. Now it’ll invest using its onshore funds if the returns exceed foregone interest.
Same same.
Hang on...
I just-recalculated the unemployment rate (to extra decimal places), and at 3.46%, THIS IS THE LOWEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN OVER HALF A CENTURY.
Payrolls rose a robust +263k in September, a touch above expectations.
Unemployment down a tick to 3.5%, equal to the lowest level in fifty years. Revisions also positive.
This is an economy that's still growing nicely. All that recession talk was empty.
Exhibit
#239
that perceptions have become detached from reality. We actually know the price of eggs.
Average price in 2020: $1.51
Average price in 2021: $1.67
Average price in 2022: $2.86
Latest price August 2023: $2.04
[Peak: Jan '23 was $4.82]
There’s literally *nothing* here. The sentence in which she is accused of plagiarizing Bobo and Gilliam begins, “Using 1987 survey data, Bobo and Gilliam found that...”
[I don't have a dog in this fight beyond a particular disdain for bad faith dishonesty in the public square.]
EXCLUSIVE:
@RealChrisBrunet
and I have obtained documentation demonstrating that Harvard President Claudine Gay plagiarized multiple sections of her Ph.D. thesis, violating Harvard's policies on academic integrity.
This is a bombshell. 🧵
Fourth point: many, many papers, in addition to common sense, show a strong relationship between immigration inflows and rent increase. Here’s one example. There are many more.
Quite the comparison...
"National Guard officials said they would most likely need at least 25,000 troops in Washington... That number, roughly more than three times the number of American troops in Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and Syria, could still grow."
This is a White House executive action; Kudlow is the President's chief economic adviser, and he runs the policy process. And he has no ****ing idea what's in it.
Jake Tapper: “That was a hot mess inside a dumpster fire inside a train wreck. That was the worst debate I’ve ever seen. It wasn’t even a debate, it was a disgrace. And it’s primarily because of President Trump.”
So even though I don’t value wearing a mask $100k I wouldn’t take his deal. That’s because the fact of him offering this deal likely tells me something unsavory about him, and I don’t want to do take off my mask in hope of a payoff from a shyster, a pervert, or a psychopath.