Had dinner with a woman who worked for Bumble during the pandemic. Apparently during the lockdowns of 2020, women’s engagement was steady but men’s completely cratered. The user experience team, which was 80% women, could not figure out why.
Just met a guy in the Marina who said, “GPT-4 is obviously very technically impressive, but one important reason it now outperforms Google for certain search tasks is that Google deliberately compromised the quality of the product in order to optimize for ad sales.”
Hot take: Mackenzie Scott showering a bunch of grifters with money will have no lasting negative impact because the recipients just blow it all immediately
If I remember right
@nntaleb
often tweeted the phrase “low IQ Saudi Barbaria” until he was shown the results from Lebanon, after which he waged a jihad on the measurement
Some groups have trouble learning fundamentals.
Since 1981 Saudi Arabian education spending has been its 2nd largest government outlay and as a % of GDP has averaged 6.27%, far higher than many OECD countries, yet after more than 40 years of spending the results are dismal.
New York Times article on AlphaGeometry
Geometry was my favorite subject in high school because solving them requires many step of reasoning and planning. Geometry problems however have been difficult for AI to solve. Our Nature paper shows my team’s progress in Geometry
Puzzling to see the
@TheEconomist
offering an analysis of the impact of cousin marriage without considering the recent work in Economics showing the powerful effects of the practice on economic and political outcomes. Let's review. First, the Economist's discussion:
I'm a bit late on this discourse, but every single one of those math professors who claimed that no student is incapable of understanding calculus are completely full of shit. As in lying through their teeth, not just deluded
I cannot stress this enough: if you think actually think University of California admissions committees follow the letter of the law, you are retarded. There are no exceptions
UC Berkeley, which has banned affirmative action, is only 19% white in its incoming Freshman class. Conservatives are going to get what they asked for good and hard if SCOTUS actually overturns AA nationally lmao.
The student loan pause cost at least $150 billion, much of it to people who didn’t really need it. Thinking about all the more socially productive ways we could have spent that money is tragic.
We could’ve built a cluster of 5 million H100 GPUs
We are all doing the same job. We teach the same number of classes. I don't think my labor is worth $20,000 LESS than that of my econ colleagues. More money please.
"What is the probability of seeing results at least as extreme as the ones observed if the null hypothesis is true?"
"But the null hypothesis isn't true"
Many comedians do standup only because they want to break into TV. Not Jerry Seinfeld. He did standup and TV only because he wanted to break into talking about comedy.
Finally got around to reading “Surely You’re Joking, Mr. Feynman!”
He is confused by people who are unable to generalize what they learn to other contexts. Then he claims people are “memorizing” or faking, not truly learning.
Might be relevant for thinking about LLMs.
Not so hard to guess what parts of academia are fake and which are not, even within social science.
When it's just a funnel for corporate keynote speeches or nonfiction books sold at airports, it's fake.
When the top researchers are painfully autistic, it's probably real
ALL OF ACADEMIA IS FAKE
Look at what gets exposed. It’s like they’re trying to get caught. And it took a decade to catch Ariely doing this. You imagine there must be a hundred more of these for each one they catch.
People are just making stuff up.
There is something about basic facts from behavioral genetics that drives many completely insane in denial.
Otherwise normal people end up behaving totally viciously, as if it’s other people’s fault that the universe is kind of heartless.
It’s funny watching the based Community Notes messages fall into the same traps of scope creep, using biased language, etc. that discredited traditional fact checkers.
So LLaMa 3's carbon footprint is... huge? 🤯
They estimate it to be 2,290 tons of CO2eq, compared to 550t for training GPT-3 and 66t for training *all* of the BLOOM models (1B-176B) 🌬️
*obscure government commission proposes forcing everyone to wear a clown nose outside*
Guy who is above it all: lol, we're turning noses into a culture war battle ground now? Just accept what's happening to you
A few years ago I met a Russian Jewish immigrant who grew up in Siberia because his family was deported there. I asked him what it was like, and he said: “Mostly horrible, but the doctors were top notch!”
This paper was finally accepted!
TL;DR: The Communists persecuted intellectuals, but the intellectuals persisted.
The areas the Soviets sent those "Enemies of the People" to are more successful today, with higher GDPs, more profitable firms, and greater average wages.
Short🧵
Cork harvesting is done entirely without machinery without inflicting permanent damage to the tree. A cork oak can be harvested from five to seventeen times in total
[read more: ]
[📹: ]
I received an invite from the Biden administration for a Diwali event being held by the VP on nov 8. I decline any invitation from an institution that supports the collective punishment of a trapped civilian population—50% of whom are children.
@AlanMCole
Highly correlated with niche, narrow, and unprestigious, but I look for: experts in the field should be disproportionately autistic, want to talk about the subject in their free time, and like to debate controversies
Very interesting paper: using generative AI to produce text or images emits 3 to 4 orders of magnitude *less* CO2 than doing it manually or with the help of a computer.
This is rarely considered in novels or films but a huge long term problem in post-apocalyptic scenarios is that breast implants need to be removed every 10 years
@BDSixsmith
He’s not always been this insufferable but his prose has always kind of sucked. The stories are good which is why they are always getting loosely adapted
My communist friend from college was clearly trending towards insanity before 2020 but Covid broke him. In addition to defending North Korea, he now makes TikToks about how alienated he feels about still wearing an N95 mask outside
Embarking on a 6-hour car ride with someone who takes zero COVID precautions. Chilling in the back seat with this respirator and trying to keep the CO2 under 1,000 ppm. Wish me luck!
If companies are mostly using AI to do a very mediocre version of something they could have paid a person to do, then the primary contribution of the AI is just saving folks money.
The "transformative innovation" in that scenario is the equivalent of getting a discount coupon.
I was in a lawyer moms FB group with this woman. She wasn’t the only rabid antisemite in these online communities.
Most, if not all, of the antisemitic comments in these groups were from Black or Middle Eastern women. When Jewish members tried to protest these comment, “call
Before the plagiarism scandal, when people asked why Claudine Gay only had 11 papers (cf Lawrence Summers, h-index of 138), the response was usually that each was a gem and her record of scholarship can't be compared to that of people in sloppy fields like economics
This is true, but the solution comes from the fact that most of these people commit a ton of less serious crime before they commit the heinous crime that everyone agrees makes them irredeemable.
I'm not sure how you deal with the problem of people who think "let's steal a car, run over someone, and then post it on social media." You can't deter someone like that because they clearly aren't rational and probably have a very low IQ.
@nathancofnas
@melissasigodo
That of course is a false proposition, and two unconnected statements. You cannot know if Jamaicans on average are faster than Jews cos that data is not available, and the numbers of athletes in the Olympics is statistically insignificant.
45 Employees at a “research institute”, but when you look at the research page it’s just a dashboard showing Covid deaths by race that was discontinued in March 2021
Forgotten history via
@TheFP
: Mackenzie Scott (Bezos) gave $12 million to a small hispanic college. Her gift tore the place apart!
The sociopath president used the cash to hire her own son and turned into a dictator. Then they had a $10 million budget gap!
Genius philanthropy
Maximum (normally distributed) skill in a population scales like sqrt(log(N)) so the Olympics are more fair than you’d expect despite population size differences
Study found that "within a few months of the launch of ChatGPT, copywriters and graphic designers on major online freelancing platforms saw a significant drop in the number of jobs they got, and even steeper declines in earnings".
From
@jburnmurdoch
I wish this was true but even now the amount of camera surveillance we live under is a political negotiation, often driven by a fear of making legible how much dysfunction could be prevented
the only reason we don't have cameras literally everywhere, on every street pole, is because we don't have enough humans to review the footage. But now that video understanding got cracked: get ready for cameras literally everywhere
My prediction is that this trend will make humanities departments even more insane. When the fight for the tiny number of remaining jobs is this intense, you can't dissent at all as your field becomes unserious
WVU is but the tip of the iceberg of cuts to humanities departments as colleges face perfect storm:
- lower undergraduate enrollment
- sharp decline in interest in humanities
- constraints on raising tuition revenue
Google's New Medical LLM Beats Doctors In Double-blind Text-based Consultations
-LLM trained in self-play simulations across diverse disease conditions, specialties, & contexts
-Eval on diagnostic accuracy, management reasoning, communication, & empathy
I’ve been thinking about this too. Technopessimism isn’t just left coded, it’s mandatory for most leftists. Not sure why but I think it’s partly because we associate technological progress with specific billionaires
the current technopessimism of the left is not normal. massive rockets capable of settling the moon? near human level AI running on supercomputers? hints at finally solving fusion power?
soviets would have been all over that shit