J. Ann Selzer @jaselzer Twitter profile

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

Here it is. Elizabeth Warren leads Register’s Iowa Poll for the first time, besting Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders

Elizabeth Warren leads Register’s Iowa Poll for the first time, besting Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders

Warren, the U.S. senator from Massachusetts, now holds a 2-point lead, with 22% of likely Democratic caucusgoers saying she is their first choice for president.

www.desmoinesregister.com

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Grinnell College National Poll on Morning Joe.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

I'm booked for tomorrow morning on CNN's Reliable Sources, unless something more important needs discussion.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Forgive me, but after a morning of calls, this seems warranted. To those tempted to try to persuade anyone connected to the Iowa Poll to release another poll, please know: 1) The first rule of the Iowa Poll schedule is we do not talk about the Iowa Poll schedule, and

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

One of the most thorough interviews I've done this cycle. With a few laughs thown in.

Preet Bharara

@PreetBharara

4 years

One of the most accurate and widely respected pollsters, Ann Selzer ( @jaselzer ), joins me to break down her methodology and latest Iowa results:

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

2) Your calls cannot change anything.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Oh, the internal conversations!

AJ Schnack

@ajschnack

4 years

I know everyone knows this but @jaselzer & @Selzer_Co_MY are the best. Pollsters, yes, but good people also. I can only imagine their internal conversations when their last poll results were so divergent from all other polling. They were right, of course, and not just in IA...

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Grinnell College National Poll on Morning Joe.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

In case you were wondering, in the June Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN Iowa Poll, we had exactly one respondent for whom Hickenlooper was the first choice. For that one person, Pete Buttigieg was the second choice. Fun fact of the day.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Here it is.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

3 years

I'm honored.

Room Rater

@ratemyskyperoom

3 years

Well lit. Plant. Books. Lovely presentation. Well within margin of error. 10/10 @jaselzer

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Here it is!

Brianne Pfannenstiel

@brianneDMR

4 years

NEW ⁦ @DMRegister ⁩ Iowa Poll results Theresa Greenfield: 46% Sen. Joni Ernst: 43% #IASen

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

I can now answer your question. Saturday night.

Brian 🏳️‍🌈

@brian_is_tired

5 years

@jaselzer when can we expect the next @DMRegister poll of the Caucus?

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Been there

CNN Politics

@CNNPolitics

4 years

This tiny township is one of the first to announce results on Election Day

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

3 years

Someone I likely do not know in my feed posted a picture of the completed Mini puzzle today. I tried not to look at it, as I am on a team that competes on the puzzle daily. I had to report it and will get 25% added to my time. People! Think before you post.😀

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

New polls(not mine) play out what I saw in the tea leaves of the June Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll: Joe Biden is vincible.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

3 years

I wish there were a rule that when a news outlet announces a vote has been taken, they would report the numbers. "House votes to repeal 2002 Iraq war powers." Not that hard to add the numbers. Right there between "votes" and "to."

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

2 months

From Grinnell College National Poll: As you think about the next 12 months, do you expect the overall strength of the U.S. economy to be better or worse as compared to the way you see it now? # GrinnellPoll

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

3 years

A very thorough, fun interview.

Elizabeth Yuan

@baoyuan

3 years

. @JoeBiden 's win was much closer than polls predicted, but not every pollster emerged from Election Day with a black eye. Iowa's @jaselzer was right on the money. @WSJ talks with Iowa's queen of polling outliers about how she got it right.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

I say nothing.

Jesse Stanton

@Adsomatic

5 years

@jaselzer When will we get another Iowa poll, please?

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Grinnell College National Poll on Morning Joe.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

9 months

New Iowa Poll to reveal likely Republican caucusgoers' picks among 14 presidential hopefuls via @DMRegister

New Iowa Poll to reveal likely Republican caucusgoers' picks among 14 presidential hopefuls

New Iowa Poll to show likely GOP caucusgoers' top choices among presidential candidates Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, 10 others

www.desmoinesregister.com

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

Elizabeth Warren surges and Joe Biden fades in close Iowa race, new poll shows

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

Recalling the 1984 fire that destroyed something like half the existing medieval glass known in the world. York Minster has been rebuilt, never the same.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

From years of viewing experience, I have to say @SHO_TheCircus is never better than when it’s snowing. In Iowa, or elsewhere.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Happy to announce I am with power once more

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Earlier this week, I gave an hour-long interview to Preet Bharara. He asks unusual questions, and so it was a pleasure to spend the time. The podcast launched this morning. It's long, just fair warning.

‎Stay Tuned with Preet: Born to Poll (with J. Ann Selzer) on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Stay Tuned with Preet, Ep Born to Poll (with J. Ann Selzer) - Jan 16, 2020

podcasts.apple.com

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

Let's look at the historical data. In our polling ahead of the 2016 caucuses, 19% in August of 2015 and 25% in October of 2015 said it would be their first caucus. As campaigns do their work, with time, they recruit more and more first-time caucusgoers.

Toxic Vitriol🌹

@Todo266

5 years

@jaselzer @djjohnso Only expecting 19% of caucus attendees to be first timers? CNN entrance polls showed 44% were first timers in '16 and youth vote turnout was up in '18.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Here's the main story. More on the Register's site.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Get ready!

Brianne Pfannenstiel

@brianneDMR

4 years

🚨New Iowa Poll alert! We’ve got news on the Iowa Senate race, the presidential race, and Iowans’ feelings about the coronavirus and racial unrest

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

How Sanders and Clinton tracked 2014-2016.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

3 years

Highlights from Grinnell College National Poll: Confidence 2022 general election votes will be counted as voters intended: 53% very/somewhat confident, 44% not too/not at all confident

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Ha!

Gabe Fleisher

@WakeUp2Politics

4 years

As we wait for the #DemDebate to begin, I spoke with @jaselzer , the polling queen of Iowa (“I prefer goddess,” she joked.) She warned about the unpredictability of caucuses. “I would not jump to declare we know how this is going to turn out” More in Wake Up To Politics tomorrow

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

7 months

One of the key findings is the almost universal appeal of term limits for members of Congress.

Grinnell College National Poll

@GrinnellPoll

7 months

The latest #GrinnellPoll data: strong bipartisan majorities favor term limits for Congress and the Supreme Court.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

3 years

Dear Twitter. You've created technology to link several tweets together. Great. Not great is posting the last tweet of the series first. While the tweets may land as an uninterrupted series, better would be to list the tweets so a reader can scroll down and read them in order.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

I wonder what other polls are showing.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

We call the combination of these scores the candidate's footprint.

Bleeding Heartland

@LauraRBelin

4 years

It's extremely helpful that @jaselzer polls have been asking #Iowa caucus-goers who they are actively considering as well as for 1st and 2nd choice. #iacaucus

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

1 year

Me too.

Geoff Garin

@geoffgarin

1 year

I try. I really do.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

A fun conversation with @DavidYepsen this afternoon to air on PBS Iowa tonight, tomorrow, and the next day on Iowa Press.

Andrew Batt

@AndBatt

4 years

Taping @IowaPress now with @jaselzer @DavidYepsen , Selzer says: “In September, I said if I was Joni Ernst I would attach myself to @ChuckGrassley in this state.” Selzer openly wonders if Democrats peaked too early in Iowa with absentees and R energy was stronger on home stretch

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

Just to put it out there, calling our shop to tell us to "release the polls" is an odd strategy. It presumes a) we forgot we had polls we had on hand and just needed to be reminded to release them, or

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

By request, here is the link to the freshly squeezed FiveThirtyEight podcast I recorded yesterday with my fellow wonk, Galen Druke.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Just started watching the new Ken Burns-produced documentary, College behind Bars. I’m only 14 minutes in, and I already highly recommend this. If you decide to watch it, and you get to the 14 minute mark, you’ll know why I decided to tweet this.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

2 years

Let the speculation begin! The Iowa Poll is back with its first 2024 question. The Iowa Poll, the 'gold standard' of political surveys, is back with new tracking on Gov. Kim Reynolds, U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley and the economy.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

8 years

@MarkHalperin @jlrye @mmckinnon @jheil @SHO_TheCircus FANTASTIC episode-opens secret door to the heart of 2016 campaign in all its glory.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

8 years

Final Poll coming Saturday evening. Stay tuned.

Final Iowa Poll released

Final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll before the caucuses will be released at 5:45 p.m. Saturday.

www.desmoinesregister.com

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

Always fun working with the political teams at The Register and CNN!

Rachel Stassen-Berger

@RachelSB

5 years

I know what you are doing Saturday night. NEW IOWA POLL TO BE RELEASED ⏰

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

3 years

Another weekend. Another Trump parade.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

The time might finally have come for me to watch Fight Club.

Rachel Stassen-Berger

@RachelSB

5 years

For the people calling/email the @DMRegister about polls: The first rule of planning the Iowa Poll is we don't talk about the Iowa Poll. The second rule is: Read the first rule. Guess what the third rule is?

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

Queen of diamonds!

Brianne Pfannenstiel

@brianneDMR

5 years

And snaps to ⁦ @RachelSB ⁩ who made this face more times than I can count in the last week as we planned a poll release and coverage of yet another super chaotic week in Iowa politics. She’s a queen.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

New poll shows Trump's tough path to reelection | TheHill

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Sad news. I was fortunate he succumbed to my campaign to meet him many years ago. I had worked on a research project to test if the little local NY talk show had legs for syndication. Yes. We spent 45 minutes in his office chatting happily away. I'm an unabashed fan.

Maggie Haberman

@maggieNYT

4 years

Regis Philbin Dies at 88

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

3 years

If you've never listened to the Christmas Carol read by the very best, tune in to Iowa Public Radio. Read by Doug Brown, from 9 a.m. to noon on IPR's AM News and FM News/Studio One stations and again from 9 p.m. to midnight on IPR News stations.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

It would be perfectly okay to fast forward past my bit to listen to ISU economist Dave Swenson and Mayor Quentin Hart of Waterloo for fresh insight into the Iowa economy, and into the feel of politics in the not-so-white parts of Iowa.

The Takeaway 🎙

@TheTakeaway

4 years

The view from Iowa: @jaselzer , whose poll is considered the “gold standard,” walks us through her latest data set and what to make of this incredibly close race. Listen to the latest Politics with Amy Walter:

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

Something of an explainer for the new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

We do not discuss our polling schedule. Imagine my kindest, most gracious voice as I say that.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

3 years

Highlights from Grinnell College National Poll: President Joe Biden Favorable/Unfavorable numbers: 49-43%, improved from August 2020 43-48%.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

Telling tidbits from Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll: Only 20% have a first choice candidate and say they are unlikely to be persuaded to support someone else.

Elizabeth Warren finds new strength among Bernie Sanders' key constituencies, Iowa Poll says

A look into Elizabeth Warren’s steady rise in the Iowa Poll: She's now leading Sanders among those under 35 and among "very liberal" respondents.

www.desmoinesregister.com

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

We've learned to prepare for such occasions.

Rachel Stassen-Berger

@RachelSB

4 years

Because we ask second choices in our polling (and our pollsters @jaselzer and @Selzer_Co_MY are AMAZING), here's how our poll would look if Booker's supporters were reallocated: 20% Sanders 18% Warren (that's +1) 17% Buttigieg (+1) 15% Biden

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

2 years

Wordle 216 2/6 🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

How Iowa Went from Trump Country to 2020 Battleground

This time around, the decision in Iowa could turn less on particular campaign tactics than on the huge external forces roiling the country.

www.newyorker.com

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

1 year

When your go-to opening word is the Wordle of the day, it's going to be a good day! Wordle 695 1/6 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

3 years

Iowa Poll: A majority of Iowans want U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley to decide not to run in 2022; 28% hope he will via @DMRegister

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Even more depth.

Rachel Stassen-Berger

@RachelSB

4 years

Want to dig into the Iowa Poll details of all the Democratic candidates polled? We've got a guide for you. via @robinlopsahl , @katie_akin

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

Cokie Roberts's was among the first voices of women journalists to penetrate my world. For so many to gather at one place--NPR--seemed astonishing. Cokie Roberts, Nina Totenberg, Susan Stanberg, Linda Wertheimer. Talk about a dynasty.

Nina Totenberg

@NinaTotenberg

5 years

The world will be a lesser place without my darling friend, Cokie Roberts, who died early this morning. I said good-bye last night. Told her I'd see her on the other side some day, where I know she will still be a star.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

2 years

I'm increasingly hearing the empty phrase "and whatnot" finish people's sentences. Maybe 10 years ago, it was "and such." Not sure where these habits start.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 months

Snow squall. As though we don’t have enough.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 months

Latest from Iowa Poll, courtesy of Des Moines Register, NBC News, and Mediacom:

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

6 years

I was #80 this morning. Normally #30 . Big turnout?

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

3 years

Sad to learn this. Probably my favorite episode of Laverne and Shirley featured Lenny and the Squiqtones. Performing in a talent show, Squiggy vamped: "This is a little song called Night after Night. It's about two nights, one right after the other. I laughed for days.

Helen Kennedy

@HelenKennedy

3 years

RIP David Lander Lenny and Squiggy made me laugh so much as a kid

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

11 months

These two look remarkably alike, I think.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

I love debates. I love charts. Ross Perot breathed life into the conversation, making it much more of a spectator-friendly event. RIP. PS: Anyone who knows me will know I objected to his pie charts not starting at 12.00 and reading in a clockwise direction.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

The new pollster ratings are out. Happy to be in the company of fine colleagues.

Pollster Ratings

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Wednesday? How is that possible?

Rachel Stassen-Berger

@RachelSB

4 years

Dear friends: Today is WEDNESDAY. Best, Rachel

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

Thanks!

Matt McIver

@mamikgibar

5 years

Congrats to @jaselzer on Selzer & Co. receiving an A+ rating from @538politics ! #dsmusa #catchdesmoines

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

3 years

This is why I love March Madness. Great win for Drake. Wichita State played with so much heart. Sad for them to go. But great for Drake.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Just curious why many articles with a headline about 23, say, states showing spikes of COVID-19 cases do not list the 23 states. Or show me a map. They'll mention California, maybe, and go in depth with photos of Santa Rosa. I'd like to know the 23 (or whatever) states.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

2 years

Iowa Poll: 2nd & 3rd congressional districts are tight; likely voters favor Republicans in 1st & 4th via ⁦ @DMRegister ⁩

Iowa Poll: 2nd & 3rd congressional districts are tight; likely voters favor Republicans in 1st & 4th

With just weeks before Election Day, Iowa voters in the 2nd and 3rd districts are almost evenly split between Republican and Democratic candidates for the U.S. House.

www.desmoinesregister.com

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

@jheil @amyklobuchar @SHO_TheCircus @Showtime Can't wait to see how your videographer captures this event on The Circus.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

Here is the attachment, showing questions asked and topline answers reported out so far, including second choice.

J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

Go to the CNN story and click on the poll for all the numbers released so far, including second choice. Hard for me to get Twitter to pick it up.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

Telling tidbits from Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll: [Corrected from earlier] Biden’s favorable rating is down 15 points from March 2019 and his unfavorable rating has almost doubled in that time.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

Kind words. Thank you.

Brian Smith

@smithbm12

5 years

Proud that the @DMRegister continues to work with one of the best to produce the #IowaPoll ! @jaselzer is an incredible asset for the state.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Iowa Poll: Donald Trump and Joe Biden are locked in a dead heat six weeks to Election Day via @DMRegister

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

1 year

@RachelSB Sad news, yet I am optimistic you have a bright future. You're one of the best editors I've worked with. Politics editors more specifically.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

2 years

I'm just now reading that when Americans listen to happy music, it moves markets upward. One music streaming service says the happiest song is Earth, Wind, and Fire's "September." I counter with Katrina and the Waves "Walking on Sunshine." Other nominations?

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

3 years

Well worth the read. This account includes some details I've not come across elsewhere. Excellent reporting.

Chad Pergram

@ChadPergram

3 years

Jan. 6 under the Capitol Dome: The darkest entry yet in Clio's tablet | Fox News

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

Go to the CNN story and click on the poll for all the numbers released so far, including second choice. Hard for me to get Twitter to pick it up.

Rob Richie

@Rob_Richie

5 years

In a typical state or congressional district, these numbers under DNC rules would mean only Warren and Biden would be >15% & earn delegates. In Iowa, caucus voters have more power & can move to backup choices. Hoping @jaselzer will start releasing 2nd choices allowing estimates

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

Grinnell/Selzer Poll. Trust Proportion of public who trust sources Completely + Mostly 91%Your doctor 83%Government experts in public health 72%Governor of your state 50%VP Mike Pence 46%President Trump

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

1988--My first presidential election as Iowa Poll director. Summer of 1988, our poll showed Dukakis with a 2-to-1 lead over G.H.W. Bush. The newsroom was skeptical. But they could not find anything else in the poll findings they doubted, so decided to publish the rookie's poll.

Bleeding Heartland

@LauraRBelin

5 years

@kkondik The #Iowa county map of 1988 presidential election blows my mind. Dukakis not only won the state by 10 points, he carried 75 of the 99 counties. Even Steve King's home county!

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

I’m not an expert in such things. But I would think both teams get a possession in overtime. Otherwise the randomness of the coin toss is determinative?

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

In my typical way, I went right to the map, eyeballing the differential by party by district, calculating in my mind that it looked to be about even statewide. Then, I raise my eyes to see the work already done, confirming my eyeballs. 641 difference statewide, advantage GOP.

Bleeding Heartland

@LauraRBelin

4 years

Going into the 2018 general election, when Ds flipped #IA01 and #IA03 and held #IA02 , the Democratic voter registration advantage was: about 23K in #IA01 (nearly 30K now) about 24K in #IA02 (around 28K now) about 1K in #IA03 (around 15K now)

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

I have a butter cow necklace. It look just like this.

Jeremy Pelzer

@jpelzer

4 years

Not sure who to attribute this to, but it's pretty funny

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

b) we would relent on any plan not to release a poll because it made someone mad. In reality, kind of a waste of time, effort, and emotion.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

2 years

A rare moment of victory ⬛🟨⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

2 months

Taylor Swift: Overall 52-32% favorable-to-unfavorable. Democrats 70-17% Republicans 39-41% Independents 51-33% # GrinnellPoll

Grinnell College National Poll

www.grinnell.edu

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

4 years

What a fun conversation with illustrious journalist @AlHuntDC Al Hunt, and legendary political consultant @JamesCarville . They dig deep.

Albert Hunt

@AlHuntDC

4 years

In this week's War Room podcast @JamesCarville and I talk impeachment of course. Plus @JASelzer joins us to analyze why @PeteButtigieg is out in front in the latest Iowa poll @DMRegister @CNN

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

6 years

@NateSilver538 I recall how giddy I was when ours first opened and it said “fewer.” Ah. A sign-maker who understood countable nouns. I mentioned this to the checker, who, sadly, was not giddy at all.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

3 years

President Joe Biden makes dent in partisan divide with COVID-19 response, Iowa Poll finds via @DMRegister

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

5 years

Suggestions to ignore or embrace: Here are some of the things that happened this year I'm most proud of. And some ways we can build on what we learned. Here are some things that didn't go as planned, and what we've done to minimize that going forward. That kind of thing.

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J. Ann Selzer

@jaselzer

3 years

Coming soon!

Rachel Stassen-Berger

@RachelSB

3 years

It’s that time again!

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