Kyle Kondik @kkondik Twitter profile

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Kyle Kondik

3 years

My new history of House elections since the 1960s, "The Long Red Thread," is now available. We published an excerpt today that hits on the key trends over the past half century in the House

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Shutdown protester GOP candidate is losing her state senate primary 61-39

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

1 year

Even if 2023 majority not at stake, GA runoff is still really important as you look ahead to 2024 Senate map. Ds could really use an extra seat cushion given how exposed they are next time

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

1 year

In a year of exceptionally bad GOP Senate candidates, Masters took the cake IMHO. Totally off-putting and bizarro

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Man, Wolf Blitzer just said he wouldn't be surprised if this was the last debate

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

I had a similar reaction - Trump won Sumter County (the Villages is mostly in that county) by 39 points

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

3 years

SurveyUSA has Ossoff 50-48 & Warnock 52-45 in the GA-SEN runoffs this morning. FWIW, same pollster had Biden +2 and Perdue +3 in mid-October (pretty decent finding compared to results) Runoff poll - mid-October poll -

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

6 years

Six House ratings changes, all in favor of Dems. Comstock (R, VA-10) Toss-up > Leans D Brat (R, VA-7) Leans R > Toss-up Taylor (R, VA-2) Leans R > Toss-up Walters (R, CA-45) Leans R > Toss-up NJ-2 Open (LoBiondo, R) Leans D > Likely D MacArthur (R, NJ-3) Likely R > Leans R

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

3 years

FINAL CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS -- THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE Biden 321, Trump 217 Biden restores some of the Dem Midwest strength and breaks new ground in Sun Belt

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Buttigieg dropping out is a great illustration of how detached IA & NH have become from the Democratic Party's reality. He did great in both and basically got nothing from them going forward.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

1 year

Pre-election chatter that Trump indictment could juice GOP performance in Wisconsin didn't happen - this showing looks worse than the D margin in the first round Just like back in August when the Mar-a-Lago search didn't appear to help Rs in some House specials later that month

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

this is the right interpretation. That Iowa and Ohio still seem to be really close tell us that Biden's leads in MN-MI-PA-WI are likely real.

Eric Berlin

@ericberlin

4 years

@kkondik If Ohio does end up 1-2 pts either way that would seem to point to clear Biden wins in PA/WI/MI. That's to say if Ohio is very close, I'd expect a larger gap in those states w/ Biden winning easily.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Possible that the Selzer DMR poll is the pro-R equivalent of the Langer ABC/WaPo wildly pro-D Biden +17 result in Wisconsin several days ago. Both are very respected pollsters, but those can’t both be true at the same time.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Two new big national polls today, similar story as others: Pew 54-44 Biden USA Today/Suffolk 53-41 Biden

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Crystal Ball Senate rating change: Iowa Toss-up to Leans Democratic

The Senate: Iowa to Leans Democratic - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Dear Readers: Join us Thursday at 2 p.m., just hours before the final presidential debate, for the latest edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes. If you have questions you would like us to...

centerforpolitics.org

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Seeing a lot of folks float nominees for early, representative Dem primary states. Here's one: Illinois. Diverse electorate (it's actually top-10 in Hispanic population nationally), mix of mega-city, suburbs, rurals, college towns, etc.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Hypothesis - there is less internal Democratic opposition to Sanders being nominated than there was GOP opposition to Trump in 2016. This includes both voters and elites

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

1 year

McCarthy no voters to McCarthy 5 minutes after agreeing to reported deal

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

1 year

Rs got their Supreme Court victories in OH and NC. Likely has consequences for redistricting next year -- Ds had a good night in each state for House but worse maps may be on horizon as Rs build defenses to protect what looks like a fairly small majority

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Trump suggesting delaying the election (he can't do this w/o congressional approval) seems to be one of his more obvious attempts to change the subject given this morning's wretched GDP numbers.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

New assistant for race calls this year: Albert "Albie" Walker Kondik, born Wednesday, Oct. 21. Both baby and mom @lottiewalker83 doing great

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

7 years

LIVE as Mitt Romney prepares to issue his apology to Donald Trump

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

6 years

Crystal Ball is going to be moving WI-GOV from Leans R to Toss-up. Been evident for a while that Walker is in trouble but we wanted to wait until the primary. Tony Evers seems like the most credible Dem, and he will face Walker.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

some real 2008 election vibes today.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

7 years

RATINGS CHANGE: FL-27 goes from Likely R all the way to Leans D now that Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) is retiring

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

9 months

If Phil Scott retires in Vermont, Ds would have a legitimate shot to flip both NH-VT governorships. If they did, they would hold all 6 New England governorships for what would be, as best as I can tell, the first time since at least the founding of the GOP in the 1850s

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

6 years

Do we really have to do this thing where the left and right argues about "the McConnell rule" or whatever? The bottom line is that the Rs controlled the Senate in 2016 and didn't have to vote on Garland, so they didn't. Now they can push through Trump's pick. It's raw politics

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

1 year

The 3 races in VA are good ones. If Rs flip VA-10 (Likely D), megawave; if Rs flip VA-7 (Leans D), strong night; if VA-2 (Toss-up) doesn’t flip, Ds are likely doing much better than expected

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

6 years

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Crystal Ball Senate rating change: Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) moves from Likely R to Leans R following entry of Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) into race

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Another poll showing Collins trailing in Maine -- we moved ME-SEN from Toss-up to Leans D this morning:

Greg Dworkin

@DemFromCT

4 years

“It’s great, but I don’t trust that she will follow through,” said Lucy Bisson of Lewiston [who has been channelling @ASFried ]

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

@chrislhayes It reminds me of the cheap radiation scanners in the Chernobyl miniseries that only go up to 7, and thus can’t actually measure how bad the problem is

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

5 years

well gang you'll have to handle Arizona & Florida without me, I'm getting hitched this weekend to the lovely @lottiewalker83 - see y'all next week

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

15 days

Crystal Ball rating changes this morning in ARIZONA -- AZ-SEN Toss-up to Leans D Juan Ciscomani (R, AZ-6) Leans R to Toss-up Explained here:

Rating Changes: Arizona Senate and AZ-6 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

We’re making a couple of rating changes today, both in Arizona. The state’s open-seat Senate race goes from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, and Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R, AZ-6) moves from Leans Republican...

centerforpolitics.org

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Turnout seems like it's going to blow way past 2016's 1.2 million votes cast in Michigan - 991k in so far and seems like there's still a ton out.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Two new nat’l polls this morning, Suffolk (50-43 Biden, Aug 28-31) and Selzer (49-41 Biden, Aug 26-30). Former started day after RNC, latter during RNC. Well-timed to capture a Trump bounce (if such a bounce occurred), yet what they found basically looks like other nat’l polls

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

2 years

Crystal Ball rating changes: MA-GOV Likely D > Safe D House: AK-AL Safe R > Toss-up MI-3 Toss-up > Leans D WA-8 Toss-up > Leans D All explained here, along with an overall assessment of the House and a previous of next week's primaries

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 7, 2022 - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes District...

centerforpolitics.org

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

If I were Biden, I would go hard to try to win not just Michigan but also Washington state. Winning both of those is how you end the primary, if not in reality at least in practice.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Biden is probably leading in the Clinton states + PA-MI-WI-AZ-NE-2 (290 electoral votes), though perhaps not by a lot. Trump is probably 50-50 or maybe even a little better in all of the remaining states. This election is not a done deal.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

That Trump’s numbers are still decent on economy suggests that the economy is not what is pushing him down - which also suggests that better economic numbers (if they come) won’t necessarily push him up

Ronald Brownstein

@RonBrownstein

4 years

The new bipartisan Hart/POS poll for CNBC has Trump job approval at just 39% down from 46% in April. Trump still leads Biden on economy, but B is up double digits on race relations, criminal justice, foreign policy, health care & dealing w/coronavirus. That's a broad range

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Florida is going to tell the tale -- setting aside some well-publicized, ahem, local troubles in some elections, the state already has a robust early voting/mail-ballot apparatus and generally counts reasonably quickly. If Biden wins Florida, he is extremely likely to win overall

Liam Donovan

@LPDonovan

4 years

Ironically if we know the results on election night that's a really bad sign for Trump.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

1 year

FINAL CRYSTAL BALL 2022 RATINGS GOP gains in all 3 categories R +24 in House (237-198) R +1 in Senate (51-49) R +1 in Governorships (29-21) All here:

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

5 years

Northam's problem as he tries to survive is that there's hardly any political incentive for Democrats NOT to throw him overboard. His resignation would not cost Dems any power, & it would promote Fairfax, who even if this never emerged has more career ahead of him than Northam

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

2 years

“In these states -- Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- Biden’s overall job approval rating is 33%, compared with 43% elsewhere.”

Brandon Finnigan

@B_M_Finnigan

2 years

@kkondik This is stratospheric for Republicans this early, and the Senate seats subsample is downright otherworldly.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

what is going on w/ the Trump campaign's cash flow?

Henry J. Gomez

@HenryJGomez

4 years

NEW: It’s not just Iowa and Ohio. Trump also has scaled back TV ads significantly in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota — signaling a retreat from the Midwest.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

2 years

Crystal Ball House rating change: Marcy Kaptur (D, OH-9) Toss-up to Leans D. Combo of the military story and what is reported below from Josh and Medium Buying about R ad cancellations

Josh Kraushaar

@JoshKraushaar

2 years

Confirmed: Republicans pulling out — and all but surrendering — against Dem Rep. Marcy Kaptur, per R source familiar with House strategy. A Trump district. Majewski’s Jan 6 baggage and lying about military service sunk his political prospects.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

3 years

FINAL SENATE RATINGS: Dems 50, GOP 48, 2 Toss-ups (both races in Georgia, where we are expecting Jan. 5 runoffs)

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Very little indication that Minnesota will vote to the right of WI-MI-PA

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

6 months

Big picture takeaway -- there were a half-dozen key races we were watching tonight: KY and MS GOV, each chamber in VA legislature, Ohio abortion vote, and PA Supreme Court. Looks like Ds won 5 of the 6, w/ only MS-GOV outstanding (Rs favored but close). Strong night for Ds

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Guys, if a poll with what seem like weird results and internals comes out from a pollster you’ve never heard of, you are not obligated to share it and comment on it

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

1 year

Contrarian, half-baked take: It would take a lot of work but I actually don’t necessarily think the Ds would be totally DOA in a 3-way race. Sinema’s numbers are bad and she probably doesn’t have much of an infrastructure of her own. R nom would matter too of course

David Freedlander

@freedlander

1 year

So Sinema is going to run as an independent, essentially daring Democrats to run a candidate in the general knowing that doing so would assure a Republican victory

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Crystal Ball: Our revised Electoral College ratings Florida Leans R > Toss-up Pennsylvania Toss-up > Leans D 268 Biden, 204 Trump, 66 Toss-ups

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

5 years

Crystal Ball House ratings change: TX-23 moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic after Rep. Will Hurd's shock retirement. Swing district, Clinton won it by 3.5. Arguably should still be a Toss-up but Hurd is a strong incumbent and the district is unlikely to vote for Trump

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

2 years

Crystal Ball Senate rating change MO-SEN (open seat) Likely R > Safe R Eric Greitens losing the primary takes this one off the competitive board

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

3 years

We’re going to learn a lot in Florida fast, and Florida will give us clues about other states too

Derek Wallbank

@dwallbank

3 years

My election hot take is I think we'll have a very good idea of which way things are going no later than about 9:30pm.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

2 years

Crystal Ball Senate rating changes: AZ, GA, NV Leans D > Toss-up CO Safe D > Likely D Why we made the changes, and a breakdown of last night, here:

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Ohio basically tied w/ Biden up mid-to-high single digits in MN-MI-PA-WI basically indicates a uniform swing across the region compared to 2016. (IA being very close, as it apparently is, also suggests that kind of uniform swing)

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

5 years

As someone who has expressed ambivalence about Susan Collins' true vulnerability next year, I'll say this - the evidence of her vulnerability is growing.

Steven Dennis

@StevenTDennis

5 years

@eyokley STUNNING: ~4 years ago in Morning Consult polling, Susan Collins was the 2nd most popular senator, with 78% approval and just 16% disapproval in her state. Now she's the 2nd most unpopular at 45/48. No senator has seen their standing hurt more in the age of Trump.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

3 years

Trump flips Mahoning Co., Ohio (Youngstown) -- big question was whether Trump would do better in eastern Ohio than 2016. Answer appears to be yes.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

In early partial results, Bill Weld is getting about 8.5% of the statewide vote in Indiana against Trump, but 16% in Hamilton County -- fast-growing, highly-educated suburban/exurban Indianapolis.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

3 years

If the Ds do in fact win both Georgia races, only 6 of the 100 senators will represent states their party did not carry in the 2020 presidential race. 3 Rs (Collins of Maine, Toomey of PA, and Johnson of WI) 3 Ds (Brown of Ohio, Manchin of WV, and Tester of MT)

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

1 year

If they are capable of it institutionally, R voters/electeds need to do a lot of soul searching about the absolutely pathetic roster of Senate candidates they produced this cycle

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Crystal Ball rating changes - Electoral College, Senate, and House Biden lead looks firmer as Midwest moves his way; edges over 270 in our ratings for the first time

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

You can draw a half-circle (call it the Trump Belt) from northern Maine down to Tennessee and then up to the Dakotas (you can see it on the map here) where Trump made his biggest gains over Romney. There is a ton of polling evidence that suggests this edge has eroded, bigly

Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Another interesting uncompetitive state data point -- Trump won SD by 30 pts. So even if you basically give him all the undecideds here, it's still a marked improvement over 2016

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Truly persuadable voters not only were not watching a presidential speech late on the Friday of a holiday weekend, but may not even be aware that such speech took place

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

2 years

One random thought - if the FBI Trump raid had really been this explosive political/electoral development that fired up Republican voters, shouldn’t Rs have done better in the NY specials last night?

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

1 year

Crystal Ball: Initial Senate Ratings -- Democrats Playing a Ton of Defense to Start WV starts in Leans R AZ-MT-OH in Toss-up All R seats in Safe R except FL/TX, both of which start in Likely R Full rundown here:

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Crystal Ball: The competitive fringe of the Electoral College expands: Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina, and Utah all move from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Why we did this -

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

6 years

CRYSTAL BALL HOUSE RATINGS CHANGE: WI-1 moves from Likely Republican to Toss-up w/ Paul Ryan's reported retirement. Full explanation to follow.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

5 years

Identity politics

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

CRYSTAL BALL SENATE RATING CHANGES: Susan Collins (R-ME) Toss-up > Leans D Lindsey Graham (R-SC) Likely R > Leans R ME-2 electoral vote - Leans > Toss-up All explained here:

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

8 months

Crystal Ball House rating changes prompted by Ohio keeping its map for 2024: Greg Landsman (D, OH-1) Toss-up > Leans D in Biden +8.5 Cincinnati district Marcy Kaptur (D, OH-9) Toss-up > Leans D in Trump +3 NW OH district. Strong incumbent gets benefit of doubt

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

2 years

Ohio's congressional maps are not part of this ruling, but one would assume that the court will apply similar logic in that case and force a redraw to the GOP gerrymander.

Laura Bischoff

@lbischoff

2 years

BREAKING: Ohio Supreme Court votes 4-3 to strike down GOP-drawn legislative maps. @jbalmert has the details.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

5 years

president of House GOP freshmen class

Natalie Allison

@natalie_allison

5 years

NEW: Soon-to-be Congressman Mark Green, a physician, warned constituents last night vaccines may be causing autism. He says he's going to "stand on the CDC’s desk and get the real data on vaccines."

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

5 years

I'm very pleased and excited to announce that @JMilesColeman has joined us at the @Center4Politics . He will be working with @LarrySabato , myself, and our contributors on the Crystal Ball and other Center for Politics projects.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

2 years

Crystal Ball: Senate rating changes --> Mark Kelly (D-AZ) Toss-up to Leans Democratic PA Open (Toomey, R) Toss-up to Leans Democratic Overall battle for the Senate remains a Toss-up in our eyes despite these rating upgrades for Ds. Explained here:

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Kim Klacik (R) lost the MD-7 special election earlier this year 74-25

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

5 years

The picks are in - D +34 in House, R +1 in Senate, D +10(!) in governorships

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Our new Electoral College ratings: FL Lean R > Toss-up PA Toss-up > Lean D Biden 268, Trump 204, 66 Toss-up Full overview:

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

whatever you think of how Minnesota might vote, it only voted for Clinton by 1.5 points in 2016 and it has a lot of similarities to other Trump 16 Upper Midwest states. Biden would be foolish to take it for granted in almost any environment (and the Trump camp should play there)

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

I do have to wonder if many pollsters are way off on white voters, and we have 2016 redux. That said, this is a very consistent trend demonstrated across lots of different surveys. So it's just a little voice in the back of my head.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

MN, WI, and VA already past 20% of the 2016's total votes cast. FL (14%) and MI (17%) close to that marker. Data from @ElectProject 's fabulous tracker:

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

5 years

Ds were defending one of the worst Senate maps for either party in the history of popular elections.

Ari Fleischer

@AriFleischer

5 years

My observations: 1) GOP losses in the House are in line w the historical average. R gains in the Senate were unusual. 2) If Rs had held the House, the margin would have been so small, nothing of substance would have passed anyway. Senate continues to give R judges.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

3 years

Wake (Raleigh) and Mecklenburg (Charlotte) are already ahead of total votes cast in 2016, and Biden is doing 12 pts in margin better in Wake and 10 pts in Mecklenburg -- dunno how much is left to count

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

We're going to be moving VA from Leans D to Likely D in our Electoral College ratings. Seemed like a good time to do it given overall Dem trend in state and four straight good elections for the party. More explanation to come.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

2 years

Crystal Ball Gubernatorial Rating Change - Illinois Governor Likely D to Safe D. Gov. JB Pritzker (D) and allies spent a lot to submarine stronger general election candidate Richard Irvin, and conservative state Sen. Darren Bailey (R) easily wins the primary

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

2 years

Couple of House rating changes following last night's NY specials (these of course apply to the new districts) NY-18 Toss-up > Leans D (Pat Ryan now quasi-incumbent here, Biden +8) NY-19 Leans R > Toss-up (Marc Molinaro will be running here, Biden +4.5 open seat)

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

3 years

Quinnipiac has Rs up 46-43 on their generic ballot question (would respondents rather see Rs or Ds win control of the House). Even in years where Rs do well in the House, it's common for Ds to lead the generic in off-years (as they do in other generic polls right now)

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

8 years

ABC poll finds declining R interest in voting. If that persists it represents the doomsday scenario for R down-ballot candidates

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

3 months

Crystal Ball House rating change -- LA-6 moves from Safe R to Safe D after Gov. Jeff Landry (R) signs new congressional map, reshaping LA-6 into a roughly Biden +20 seat. Ratings now have 213 seats at least Leans R, 204 at least Leans D, and 18 Toss-ups

2024 House - Sabato's Crystal Ball

To read recent stories on the race for the House, click here. 2024 House ratings Updated April 24, 2024

centerforpolitics.org

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Today’s Crystal Ball House rating changes -

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

6 years

OH-GOV: Whatever small lead Mike DeWine (R) may have held for much of the cycle seems to be gone. Seems like race is either tied or perhaps Rich Cordray (D) even has a very slight edge.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

6 years

The Midwest has 6 big gov races this year: IL-MN-MI-OH-IA-WI. Rs control 5/6 right now (all but MN). Seems possible that the Ds could sweep all 6 this fall.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Starting to worry that The Villages residents are going to eventually recreate the Battle of Kursk, just with golf carts

The Associated Press

@AP

4 years

The Villages, the nation's largest retirement community, has long been considered a conservative redoubt. But on Wednesday, hundreds of golf carts took part in a caravan to the nearby elections office so folks could drop off ballots for Joe Biden.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

I’ve long thought NC was seat no. 50 for the Ds, so this is potentially a huge blow to them, although 1. It’s become easier in recent weeks to imagine Ds getting beyond 50 in the Senate and 2. I’d like to see data confirming this is a game changer instead of just assuming it is

Dave Levinthal

@davelevinthal

4 years

In North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis has COVID-19, and his married Democratic opponent Cal Cunningham has been caught sexting with someone who isn’t his wife.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

3 years

which may tell us something about Wisconsin

David Byler

@databyler

3 years

we're rightly obsessing over the needle and whatnot in georgia but also pretty good stuff for biden in minnesota

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Crystal Ball House rating change: Rep. Josh Harder (D, CA-10) moves from Likely Dem to Safe Dem. District could/should be very competitive on paper but Ted Howze's (R) candidacy is imploding over history of indefensible social media posts

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

3 years

FINAL HOUSE RATINGS Dems 243, GOP 192, 10-seat net Dem gain from 233 they hold now, 8 more seats than Ds won in 2018

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

10 months

First blush reaction to Moore v. Harper is that the new Wisconsin Supreme Court (now functionally held by Democrats) will feel empowered to rule against the state's congressional map. So that is something to watch coming up later this year

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Crystal Ball House rating change: CO-3 moves from Likely R to Leans R following Lauren Boebert's shock upset of Rep. Scott Tipton (R, CO-3) in primary. 52-40 Trump district. Boebert is hard right. D candidate is credible but lost by 8 last time.

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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

4 years

Absolutely no path for Trump without Ohio. The last time Ohio was truly decisive was 2004 - back then, states like Colorado and Virginia were more Republican than Ohio

Sahil Kapur

@sahilkapur

4 years

Trump struggling in Ohio is a BFD. He won it by ~8 in 2016. Here’s how the map looks if states Trump won by *smaller margins* flip blue this fall. To be clear, this is NOT a prediction but rather an illustration of how critical Ohio is for the president.

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