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Gregory D. Johnsen Profile
Gregory D. Johnsen

@gregorydjohnsen

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Associate Dir Inst. for Future Conflict: @AF_Academy . Author: Last Refuge. New book: in-progress. PhD @princeton Prev @buzzfeed & UN Yemen Panel. Personal Views

Joined February 2011
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
I don't know of any seasoned Yemen observer who thinks a ceasefire in Gaza will lead to a halt in Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. The Houthis are using the situation in Gaza to advance their own domestic and regional goals.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 years
Wow, this is a sheriff, defending individuals charged with a plot to kidnap the governor of Michigan. America, we have a problem.
@rossjonesWXYZ
Ross Jones
4 years
This interview with a sitting sheriff in Michigan is absolutely wild.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
The Houthis have demonstrated over 20 years of fighting that they can absorb a significant amount of pain, regroup, and hit back.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
The Houthis can’t be deterred because they want this conflict, for both regional and domestic reasons, and it is very, very hard to degrade them to the point that they can’t attack commercial shipping. So, the US is now in an open ended conflict with no clear off-ramp.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
2 years
US discussing sanctioning Russian Central Bank. “Targeting the central bank could lead to domestic turmoil in Russia, such as by triggering a bank run, cratering the ruble, and causing panic among Russian businesses.”
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 years
This is horrible, and comes 18 days (March 9) after Italy's nationwide lockdown.
@MattMcBradley
Matt Bradley
4 years
BREAKING: #Italy ’s daily death rate has skyrocketed to a new, global record high of 969 dead in a single day. The #Coronavirus has killed 9,134 people since the crisis began.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
Thread: A few things to keep in mind as the US watches to see if, when, and how the Houthis respond to last night's strikes. First, the Houthis need and, in many ways, want this war for reasons that have nothing to do with Gaza.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
Probably the best four minutes of analysis on who the Houthis, what they're doing, and what they want.
@Dr_E_Kendall
Elisabeth Kendall
4 months
I spoke to BBC News about why #Yemen 's #Houthis are doing what they're doing in the #RedSea . (Live from @GirtonCollege @Cambridge_Uni )
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
In Houthi thinking they have A.) taken down Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh (their initial enemy) B.) defeated Saudi Arabia and C.) are now in a war with the US. Local, regional, international. This is how they see the march of history.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
6 years
Not the worst defeat Germany has ever suffered in Russia, but it is up there.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
6 years
As DC politics suck up column inches and air time much of the rest of the world is being undercovered and under-reported
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
The U.S. simply does not have good options in Yemen. Option 1: Do nothing. Result: Houthis continue to attack commercial shipping. Option 2: Limited airstrikes. Result: risk a spiraling conflict and Houthis likely to continue attacking commercial shipping.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
A lot of what is happening today reminds me of the build-up to Saudi Arabia going into Yemen to fight the Houthis in 2015. Saudi Arabia thought the air war would last "six weeks." It is 2024 and the war is still ongoing.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
3 years
This is ridiculous. Colin Kahl is incredibly smart, thoughtful, and a kind person to boot. He is exactly the type of person Americans should want to serve.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
There will inevitably be a lot of people chiming in about the Houthis and Yemen in the coming hours and days. These are some of the people I respect and admire and learn from even when I don't agree with everything they say: @BashaReport & @Ndawsari & @thomasjuneau 1/2
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
2 years
1. A not so short thread on tonight's news on Yemen from Riyadh. There is a lot to parse, but Hadi removed Vice President Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar and then transferred the power of the presidency to an 8-man presidential council.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
Re-upping my piece from Tuesday, before tonight's strikes on Yemen, which explains why (both for regional and domestic reasons) the Houthis were baiting the US and what happens if the strikes don't work.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 years
Sound familiar? --> "In the critical early days of the outbreak, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and other top officials sought to down play the threat, creating confusion and a false sense of security that allowed the virus to spread."
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
2 years
We’ve confused opponents with enemies. This is sad and worrisome.
@GOP
GOP
2 years
Happy Presidents’ Day!
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
5 years
This has been happening for quite some time, the @washingtonpost has reported on it. I find it hard to believe US officials didn't know about this prior to the CNN story
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 years
Precious time wasted: "The scientists said they believe that they will find evidence that the virus was infecting people even earlier, and that they could have alerted authorities sooner if they had been allowed to test."
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
3 years
Steve Coll is working on a new book on Afghanistan "in which he chronicles the restoration of Taliban rule and the final collapse of American ambition in Afghanistan."
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 years
If the President of the United States has nothing to say in a situation like this he should not be the president.
@PhilipRucker
Philip Rucker
4 years
Trump and advisers calculated that he shouldn’t speak to the nation because he had nothing to say, no tangible policy or action to announce, nor did he feel an urgent motivation to try to bring people together. So he let his tweets speak for themselves.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
6 years
A brief thread on Yemen, the Houthis, and how we got here
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
2 years
A couple of notes on today's claimed attack by the Houthis in the UAE.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
7 years
You can call me Dr. ---- finally.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
6 years
For @lawfareblog I attempt to untangle what is happening in Yemen. Hint: what we call the war in Yemen is actually three separate but overlapping conflicts.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
9 years
A reminder that the man everyone calls Yemen's legitimate government - Hadi - came to power in a referendum without an option to vote "no"
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
I would argue it is likely to make the Houthis more aggressive. So if air strikes are the answer tonight, what is the answer tomorrow and going forward?
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
9 years
So, the person to get in trouble for lying about the Iraq war is Brian Williams.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 years
I would love to see former presidents Carter, Clinton, Bush, and Obama do a PSA on wearing masks to save lives.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
6 years
The @AP and its incredible Yemen reporter @mokhbersahafi say roughly a third of those killed in drone strikes this year in Yemen have been civilians
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
6 years
A lot of people are about to tell you what's about to happen in Yemen. The truth is no one knows. But it looks very dark.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
6 years
The news is a business not a service - give the people what they want
@RobbieGramer
Robbie Gramer
6 years
MSNBC has done 455 Stormy Daniels segments in the last year — but none on U.S. war in Yemen
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
3 years
I do wonder what the results would be if the US investigated every drone strike as carefully and as thoroughly as it did the August 29 strike in Kabul. I suspect we might start talking about these strikes differently.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
6 years
I would argue that the US - Rep or Dem admins - has never had a Yemen policy. The US has had a Saudi policy, an Iran policy, and a CT policy but never a Yemen one - which means the US sees Yemen only through those other areas of interest.
@just_security
Just Security
6 years
Some things missing from senior Obama officials’ Statement calling for halting U.S. support for #YemenWar ? "Obama Officials’ Incomplete Reckoning with Failure on Yemen" By @sarahleah1 ( @hrw ) via @just_security
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 years
"American intelligence agencies have concluded that the Chinese government itself does not know the extent of the virus and is as blind as the rest of the world."
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
9 years
I wish US foreign policy was subject to as much scrutiny as the psi of NFL footballs.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
However, the Palestinian cause is extremely popular in Yemen, so by tying themselves to the Palestinian cause the Houthis can mute domestic criticism.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
The war with Saudi and the UAE was coming to an end, which wasn't good for the Houthis. So the group took advantage of the situation in Gaza to advance their own domestic and regional priorities.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
3 years
If the process worked and civilians died then by definition the process does not work.
@AP
The Associated Press
3 years
BREAKING: A Pentagon review concludes that the U.S. drone strike that killed innocent Kabul civilians and children in the final days of the Afghanistan war was not caused by misconduct or negligence, and doesn't recommend disciplinary action, @AP learns.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 years
Heartbreaking
@uwlabmedpath
UW Dept. of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology 🔬
4 years
We are deeply saddened that faculty member Professor Stephen Schwartz passed away due to a COVID-19 infection. He has left a lasting imprint on our department, our university, and the broader scientific community and will be greatly missed.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 years
Thrilled to be joining @BrookingsFP as a non-resident fellow
@natansachs
Natan Sachs
4 years
One of the best experts in the US on Yemen, @gregorydjohnsen joins us as well. Look out for more from him on one of the most important issues in the Middle East today. 3/4
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
2 years
Just a note, it is not accurate to say that the UAE "withdrew" from Yemen. The UAE significantly reduced its forces starting in mid-2019, but there are still UAE soldiers on the ground in Yemen.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
7 years
@jaketapper @SebGorka I thought Gorka was a terrorism expert he can't even pronounce "Allahu Akbar"
@jaketapper
Jake Tapper
7 years
And, no surprise, @SebGorka lies as well, claiming i said Allahu Akbar was a "beautiful phrase." Never said it, Sebastian. Blatant lie.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
2 years
With the news that the UAE is asking to US to re-list the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, a (maybe not so) short thread on how US policy toward Yemen, over the past three administrations, has been the worst of all possible worlds.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 years
There are a lot of people and decisions at fault for what is happening with Covid-19 across the southern and western US, but the decision to make wearing a mask a political statement is surely at the top of the list.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
The Houthis have a number of problems. 1. Politically: The Houthis are repressive and autocratic and, as a result, not particularly popular.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
All of this means that this conflict with the US is likely to be more protracted than many suspect. End thread
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
5 years
I was very sad to see that @MaadAlzekri - the first Yemeni to win a Pulitzer Prize - was unable to attend the award ceremony in NY because his visa was denied.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
2 years
So, we're about to see how the UAE, China, and India vote on the resolution condemning Russia at the UN.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
The Houthis are betting that expanding the war, instead of ending it, will eventually allow them to gain popular support and seize at least one of these three governorates.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 years
We can't say we weren't warned.
@selectedwisdom
Clint Watts
4 years
If you are wondering how the most powerful country in the world got into such a #Coronavirus mess, well there’s a reason. Michael Lewis explains why government agencies matter in times like these. Good book” The Fifth Risk (9781324002642):”
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
6 years
In the Yemen Panel of Experts report released in 2018 we wrote that Mohammed Ali al-Houthi "met the designation criteria" to be sanctioned by the UN Security Council. In other words, he is someone who has committed documented violations and crimes.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
Yemen has basically two exports: oil and gas. The vast majority of oil and gas fields are located in the governorates of Marib, Shabwa, and Hadramawt. None of which the Houthis control.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 years
What I'll always remember is the president of the United States saying "No, I don't take responsibility at all."
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
2. Economically: If all wars were to cease in Yemen today, the Houthis would be unlikely to survive, largely because they simply do not have an economic base to support the population in the north.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 years
Italy didn't learn from China, New York didn't learn from Italy, Texas, Florida, and Arizona haven't learned from NYC. This is all so sad and sadly too predictable.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
6 years
I'm late to this but this @bentaub91 profile of @SkinnerPm is an incredible piece of writing. One of the best pieces I've read about where the US is as a country after 9/11:
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
8 months
A 60-word sentence that has been and continues to be the legal foundation for much of what the US has done over the past 22 years.
@steve_vladeck
Steve Vladeck
8 months
22 years ago today, President Bush signed into law the Authorization for Use of Military Force. Even as it’s been relied upon by successive administrations to use force in contexts and against groups increasingly far removed from 9/11, the #AUMF has never been amended or updated.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
The Houthis owe Iran a lot, and this helps further deepen their relationship. Second, and I would argue more importantly, war with the US is good for the Houthis domestically.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
10 years
Not so much on the cheeky tweets from @CIA today
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
7 years
So is the US now invested in removing Assad or is it ok with him as long as he doesn't use CW again?
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
I continue to wonder what the plan for the US and UK is after tonight. I can't imagine any of the planners believe these strikes will either prevent or deter the Houthis from launching more attacks on commercial shipping.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
On the regional front, this gives Iran some plausible deniability. Iran can uses the Houthis to escalate, while maintaining publicly that the Houthis are independent actors.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
If one round of strikes aren't enough to deter the Houthis and two aren't enough, exactly how many will be needed? I think there is a lot of room for slippage here and mission creep, particularly if, instead of pulling back, the Houthis try to expand their attacks.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
9 years
When the US started bombing in '09 - AQAP was 200-300 members. US has killed over 1,100 people in Yemen- 3x the # of AQAP had to start with
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
6 years
The UN's Yemen Panel of Experts report, on which I served, is now out and available here: (PDF)
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
5 years
It is possible to think keeping US troops in Syria to counter Iran was a bad idea and believe it is also a mistake to pull them so quickly with seemingly little thought as to what comes next
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
Option 4: Back anti-Houthi forces. Result: get in bed with a host of problematic figures with questionable records some of whom hate one another more than they do the Houthis. Houthis likely continue to attack commercial shipping.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
This is extremely important at the moment because as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have drastically reduced strikes, the Houthis local rivals (particularly some tribal shaykhs and the GPC) have begun to increase their criticism.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
Option 5: Hit Iran, the Houthis' backer and perhaps the only country that can exercise influence. Result: risk a broader, regional war in the Middle East. Perhaps there are other options, but these are the ones that stand out to me, and none of them are great.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
2 years
This is the guy who withheld military aid to Ukraine, openly talked of dismantling NATO, and cozied up to Putin. Perhaps he should sit this one out.
@samstein
Sam Stein
2 years
Trump, who discussed pulling the US from NATO takes credit for NATO’s existence in a new statement. Trump, who threatened to withhold weapons funding from Ukraine to get dirt on Biden, takes credit for Ukrainian weapons in same statement.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
5 years
I don't feel like it has registered but there have been a number of articles lately highlighting UAE misdeeds. From @AramRoston 's piece on mercenary hit squads in Yemen
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 years
Is this what watching cricket feels like?
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
3 years
My concern with the current Biden admin approach in Yemen is that there appears to be a fundamental misunderstanding of what is happening on the ground.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
Ending the war in Yemen, at least at this stage, is bad for the Houthis.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
3 years
Yemen news this week: Saudi pulling back in al-Mahra, the UAE withdrawing in Shabwa, and the Houthis advancing toward Marib city.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
2 years
Citations are not why most academic writing is unreadable.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
I just heard @Ndawsari is going to be on the PBS Newshour this evening. If you want to know what has happened in Yemen and what is likely coming next, you should tune in to listen to her.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 years
Wow --> this is not good, Ali Soufan is an American hero. "Cybersecurity experts hired by Soufan traced at least part of the campaign to an official in the Saudi government."
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
5 years
There is a lot of optimism on my timeline regarding Yemen today. I wish I could share it, but the past 7 years have shown that agreements are the easy part in Yemen - implementation and follow through are much more difficult.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
@shashj I think the question becomes: if they are futile or if the Houthis feel emboldened then does the US escalate? And if so, how much? Only air strikes, what if ground troops are needed? It is much easier to begin a war than it is to end one.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
9 years
There will come a time (in not so many years) in which the war in Yemen is just as dangerous and just as unsolvable as the one in Syria.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
10 years
My final Michael Hastings Fellow piece on escaping a kidnapping this year in Yemen http://t.co/jwtAk8DGz1
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
3 years
Longish threat on Yemen: The million dollar question in Yemen: How to end all of its overlapping wars? 1/X
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
9 years
A reminder: Yemen has no president, no vice president, no prime minister and no cabinet. It does have 2 former presidents and lots of guns
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
7 years
"We could ban football. (But we love football.)"
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 years
As ever I'm touched by the generosity and spirit of Yemenis, who despite living through five years of war take the time to reach out to make sure my family in the US is safe.
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
Almost like nearly everyone who studies Yemen suggested.
@DanLamothe
Dan Lamothe
4 months
As Houthis vow to fight on, U.S. prepares for a new, indefinite campaign
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@gregorydjohnsen
Gregory D. Johnsen
4 months
I think part of what concerns me about the US approach in Yemen is that the US is focused on the short term (stopping Houthi attacks) while the Houthis are focused on the long term (staying in power).
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