an update!
I’m two weeks in to my new position as a senior counterterrorism analyst after 14 years at
@AEI
. Grateful for the opportunity to serve in a different capacity. Grateful for the opportunities, experiences, and particularly my colleagues.
The origins of Yemen's civil war are not debated. The al Houthis seized control of the capital militarily in September 2014, prompted a crisis in January 2015 when they kidnapped the president's aide carrying the constitution draft, and sparked civil war by declaring a new govt.
"The origins of the current Yemeni civil war are numerous and debated, but the conflict can be summed up as half a dozen elite political factions each trying to capture the Yemeni state to benefit their own clique." James Spencer:
Thrilled to share my in-depth report examining the relationship between Yemen's Houthis and Iran's Axis of Resistance:
Thanks to the
@aei
team for polishing, and
@criticalthreats
@TheStudyofWar
research teams for some of the rough data.
I'm in the "al Qaeda is more than one man camp," but taking out al Qaeda's global leader, Zawahiri, who's been wanted by the US for decades, will always be a major blow for the organization.
But his contemporaries, also wanted, are still on the battlefield.
No victory lap yet.
Understanding the Houthis' recent attacks on Abu Dhabi only within the context of
#Yemen
's war is short sighted. Growing Houthi threat will also become part of regional conflict with Israel.
My latest for
@foreignpolicy
with
@NicholasAHeras
Another great report from
@mokhbersahafi
on
#Yemen
.
#Houthis
brutally suppress any opposition-real or perceived-in their territory through detainment. Journalists have almost no access to Houthi-controlled territory.
My latest looking at Yemen. US pressure only on Gulf partners to stop operations helped clear the way for the Houthis to press their advantage in Ma'rib instead of negotiating for a ceasefire.
Key points threaded below.
Friday. The perfect day to procrastinate for the weekend by checking out this interactive graphic I worked with
@AEI
on
#alQaeda
and
#ISIS
in the
#Sahel
.
Click click.
I argue for
@WSJopinion
that Trump is doubling down on a counterterrorism policy that won't actually defeat
#alQaeda
,
#ISIS
, et al, even as partners buy in.
US and allies need to deal with local grievances, which give
#Salafijihadi
groups their opening.
Remembering the 9/11 attacks from a different vantage point. I’m joining
@Sept11Memorial
in commemorating the 20th anniversary & sharing a picture of the sky above the UK today to help a new generation of Americans
#NeverForget911
.
Please join me on Instagram. Tag
@911Memorial
.
Beyond excited to share with you my latest work from
@AEI
@criticalthreats
:
Beyond Counterterrorism: Defeating the
#SalafiJihadi
Movement
(see what I did there?)
My recommendations for how to reframe US approach to fighting
#ISIS
,
#alQaeda
, and the lot.
Ending
#Yemen
's humanitarian crisis means ending war first. Team Biden has put diplomacy back at center of effort but will fail without leverage on all parties.
@Brad_L_Bowman
& I recommend in
@ForeignPolicy
addressing flow of
#Iran
's arms to
#Houthis
.
In hard copy! 🤩
Thanks to
@nic_stockhammer
@routledgebooks
.
My chapter is on al Qaeda and the Islamic State competing within the Salafi-jihadi movement and with the West.
My latest: an argument for why a strategy should focus on the relationships
#Salafijihadi
movement has built with Sunni communities over targeting the members.
A center-of-gravity analysis.
A senior Taliban member said al Qaeda fighters might be allowed to live as “refugees” in Taliban-controlled areas of Afghanistan but “they would not be allowed to carry out their activities.”
Surprised to see such blatant strawman arguments in this WaPo op-ed arguing the Biden admin "could have ended the war in Yemen.
I don't believe the US approach was the right one, but the argument here overstates American influence in events. 🧵
Excited to share my latest with you: Terrorism, Tactics, and Transformation.
The
#SalafiJihadi
movement has evolved and adapted according to circumstance. US counterterrorism policies, well, hasn't really.
Wondering where the outrage is.
The Houthi indoctrination of Yemeni youth is changing the next generation. Not to mention continued reports of children—young children—on the frontlines.
Houthi leader Moh Al-Bukhaiti shares a video of children under the age of 10 carrying rifles, conveying a message to the Houthi leader:
We send a message to Al-Sayyed Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi: Morale is high, we're your men, & victory is coming.
NEW from the
@criticalthreats
team: Burkina Faso coup signals deepening governance & security crisis in Sahel.
⏩Focuses on interaction of JNIM, ISGS threat with Russia's disinformation/growing influence through Wagner
Biden could have withdrawn from Afghanistan more responsibly with little cost or risk to the US instead of hastily retreating as the Taliban launched a major offensive
@AEI
@criticalthreats
director Fred Kagan via
@NYTOpinion
US airstrikes in Yemen on Houthi positions.
@gregorydjohnsen
has a great piece exploring what happens if these don’t work to stop the Red Sea attacks.
Ken Pollack & I said they’re unlikely to & recommended more support for the Yemeni factions fighting the Houthis.
Links below.
UAE has called for FTO designation on Houthis following deadly attacks.
Biden team removed FTO prematurely over concerns of humanitarian impact, creating conditions for Houthis to pursue military victory in Yemen. Here's the context:
#Yemen
's
#Houthis
continue march toward theocracy, restricting women's rights and indoctrinating children.
Nadwa one of the many Yemeni voices surfacing these HR violations, which often go underreported in international press.
After segregating society & turning schools into indoctrination & child recruitment camps,Houthis now want to turn women into baby making machines.Their ministry of Health just issued a directive prohibiting existing birth control methods. They r preparing for their holy war.1/2
POTUS says we would never have been in Afghanistan if 9/11 came from a place like Yemen...
But it didn't...and Taliban served to sponsor and provide safe haven for al Qaeda.
Al Qaeda attacked US from its safe haven 20 yrs ago and will do so from ANY safe haven. Why give it back?
New in
@thehill
on the dangers of
#Iran
's drones in
#Ukraine
. Looking beyond the deepening partnership with
#Russia
, Iran will be able to battlefield test its systems against US-supplied defenses.
written with
@ClearyWaldo
Two young American women, Yemeni-born, rescued from Houthis in January after having passports confiscated and being forced to marry in joint US-Saudi effort
Some key points here on the reported death of AQAP’a leader, Qasim al Raymi (who like others has been reported killed before)
- AQAP seriously degraded; due credit also to UAE for this
- intel on location was HUMINT
- Raymi had deep AQ core connex
Remembering the 17 victims of al Qaeda's bombing of the USS Cole today on the 20th anniversary of their death.
From the commanding officer of the ship on that day:
On the 20th anniversary of the attack on my ship, USS COLE (DDG 67), I honor my crew and pray for the families of the 17
#Sailors
killed by
#AlQaeda
defending
#freedom
for our nation. Never forget their
#heroism
&
#sacrifice
.
For those who missed it: America's "relentless diplomacy" has effectively cleared the path for a Houthi victory in Yemen, and they have repaid us by holding Yemeni staff at the US embassy hostage.
It's a problem.
My latest looking at Yemen. US pressure only on Gulf partners to stop operations helped clear the way for the Houthis to press their advantage in Ma'rib instead of negotiating for a ceasefire.
Key points threaded below.
Yemen’s Houthis Went From Ragtag Militia to Force Threatening Gulf Powers |
@NYTBen
covers evolution of the Houthis, thanks in large part to Iran’s support.
I remember when US forces toppled the Taliban government after 9/11. I was young.
I never thought I’d see the Taliban running Afghanistan again in my lifetime. I was naive.
Big news. THAAD successfully destroyed a Houthi MRBM in strike on Abu Dhabi.
But like the Patriot systems, this is an expensive solution when you play the numbers game.
My latest for
@Newsweek
on
#alQaeda
's next generation: "Their jihad is not just on the battlefield, but also in courtrooms, public squares and schools."
Cost-imposing strikes are unlikely to work given how much the Houthis (and Iran) benefit from Red Sea shipping attacks. But they care greatly about controlling Yemen, and that is the one thing that the US can threaten.
It's time to apply the Reagan Doctrine to the Houthis.
It’s time for the U.S. to stop thinking tactically about the Houthis in Yemen and start thinking strategically, write Kenneth M. Pollack and
@KatieZimmerman
Diplomacy without leverage is just talk.
US needs to generate it against Houthis, who benefit from US pressure on Saudi Arabia & lifting of FTO designation, and now renewed flow of aid resources.
Stopping Iran’s weapons an idea.
Argued it w/
@Brad_L_Bowman
Perhaps Niger’s coup may finally teach the US the lesson it should have learned from its experience in Mali and then Burkina Faso: more soldiers and more weapons don’t necessarily mean more security—and they certainly don’t equal government stability.
Big news from al Qaeda in Yemen: Khalid al Batarfi is dead.
I always thought of him as AQ generation 1.5—he’s old enough to have cut his teeth in Afghanistan pre-9/11 but emerged in senior leadership after AQAP’s founding.
He’s replaced, as expected, by Saad bin Atef al Awlaki.
On the eve of
#Ramadan
, the holiest month in Islam, Al-Malahem, the media wing of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
#AQAP
, mourned the passing of its leader, Khalid al-Batarfi, known by the aliases Abu Miqdad and Abu al-Miqdad al-Kindi. Al-Batarfi assumed the role of emir in…
This take-down of
@Mikeknightsiraq
's assessment of the Houthi threat is a far cry from "responsible." Certainly there is space to debate the way forward and how to protect US interests but the outright dismissal of the evolution of the Houthis capabilities is dangerous.
🚨JOB ALERT🚨
@criticalthreats
is hiring analysts looking at the
#Salafijihadi
threats in
#Yemen
and Africa.
Can't tell you what an opportunity this is for young researchers looking to develop their skills and learn in fast-paced environment.
With the attacks today by the
#Houthis
on a U.S. warship and commercial vessels, I believe it’s well past time for the U.S. and its allies to target the Behshad, an
#IRGCterrorists
ship which provides intelligence that enables the Houthis to carry out maritime attacks like…
NatSec Twitter: an early
#FF
and huge congratulations to
@EmilyCEstelle
for her promotion today to research fellow at
@AEI
🥳🎉
If you don't already know her work on Africa and Salafi-jihadi groups, take a gander at Vicious Cycles:
Houthi weapon ranges extend into Israel. Recent drone and missile attacks fired at Israel from Yemen show extent of Iran's investment.
Their incorporation into the Axis of Resistance changed the regional security dynamics, as I wrote in my 2022 report:
I'm in awe of how powerful a loosely networked cabal of US servicemen, diplomats, aid workers, journalists, and others who have connections to Afghanistan and here in the USG have come together to help partners to safety.
Thank you.
Until US accepts that Iranian-backed groups have already weighed the costs of potential retaliatory strikes and are undeterred by them, the US military—and its regional partners—will remain on the defensive. Houthis, Iraq's "Iran-aligned" militias (per USG) continue escalations.
US-backed Somali forces now outmanned and outgunned against al Qaeda's largest affiliate in Somalia.
It's one of the Trump decisions Biden should have reversed when taking office last year. My piece arguing as much, January 2021:
Special operations forces had been assisting local units for several years in battling al-Shabab, which is linked to al-Qaida. But shortly before leaving office, President Donald Trump ordered some 700 U.S. troops out of Somalia.
Islamic State (ISIS) confirmed death of leader Abu Ibrahim AND death of spox Abu Hamza (which might account for the unprecedented delay).
New IS spox Abu Umar al Muhajir issued eulogy and announced new leader as Abu al Hassan al Hashimi al Qurayshi.
#Yemen
's humanitarian crisis is unprecedented and worsening. Blame falls on all sides of the war--the coalition, the
#Houthis
, the recognized government, militia and brigade commanders, the war-profiteers...
Only way to reverse trend is to resolve the interrelated conflicts.
Criticism of the Saudi-led war in Yemen has focused on airstrikes that have killed thousands of civilians. But the Saudi coalition is also waging an economic war that risks tipping the country into famine.
We’re watching the return of the Afghan Taliban state in 2x speed.
But it’s okay because they say they’ll break ties with al Qaeda (they haven’t) and we’ve decided to end this war…apparently regardless of the cost to human life, dignity, and future national security.
UN official: Afghanistan poised on brink of a "catastrophe so serious that it would have few, if any, parallels in this century" as Taliban seizes first provincial capital.
Gen. McKenzie: “We’re probably at about 1 or 2 % of the capabilities we once had to look into Afghanistan,” making it “very hard, not impossible” to ensure neither al Qaeda nor Islamic State can pose a threat.
Also, al Qaeda numbers are up.
For
@thedispatch
, I push back on the President's misleading parallel between Syria and Afghanistan. Successful US counterterrorism ops against ISIS in Syria can't be replicated in the Taliban's Afghanistan.
Al Qaeda speaks on the Taliban victory, as expected:
-Defeat of the Americans after following Allah's path
-Path of jihad only way to victory, regardless of how strong the enemy is
-Prepare for the next stage, liberation of Muslim masses from tyrants
I've got a forthcoming report from
@AEI
examining some of the questions this attack surfaces, particularly regarding Houthi capabilities and what it means in region.
These UAVs sourced from Iran, flown from Yemen.
Houthis claim deadly attack in UAE, after warning Emiratis for escalating offensive ops in Yemen.
Attack another demonstration of Houthi range of threat
US Navy seized Iranian-sourced arms destined for
#Yemen
’s Houthis. Includes anti-tank guided missiles, drone components and navigation, similar to cache last November.
#Iran
’s limited investment in Yemen has yielded outsized influence.
Testified on
#Yemen
: US must use leverage to drive partners away from practices that cause unnecessary civilian casualties. We should not deprive ourselves of that leverage by cutting off aid, but neither should we defend or tolerate those practices."
US: We're in talks to "end the war in Yemen" and trying to "find a mutually acceptable negotiated solution to the conflict."
Houthis: "That the United States says they are talking to us is a great victory for us and proves that we are right."
"US assessments downplaying a terrorist resurgence appear to contrast with a report released in June by the United Nations’ Sanctions Monitoring Team, which assessed that al Qaeda 'is in a reorganization phase,' and had been establishing new training facilities in Afghanistan"
“Al Qaeda is at its historical nadir in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and its revival is unlikely,” a senior US official tells CNN, rebutting allegations of AQ revival in recent UN report; calls report “wildly out of whack” with US intelligence
Taliban's victory in Afghanistan is also al Qaeda's.
Expect these developments to reverberate globally as they prove the Salafi-jihadi strategy of outlasting foreign interventions effective.
My post on al Qaeda's return for
@AEI
in May 2020:
Al Qaeda has been running a network in Brazil--at first brush financial--since at least 2015, possibly 2013, that has connections to long-time al Qaeda operatives.
US designates al Qaeda network in Brazil, incl Haytham Ahmad Shukri Ahmad Al-Maghrabi, Mohamed Sherif Mohamed Awadd, and Ahmad Al-Khatib, all based in Brazil.
Thrilled to join
@BuckSexton
to chat a bit about
#Yemen
. Critical point now for US interests—including preventing widespread famine—and no easy answer means no one touches the issues. Good to see
#TeamRising
taking on the challenge.
Today marks 22 years since the 9/11 attacks. I’m joining
@911Memorial
in remembrance by sharing a picture of the sky over DC from
@aei
’s roof to help a new generation of Americans
#NeverForget911
. It’s cloudy this morning, but I’ll always
#RememberTheSky
. .
The
#Salafijihadi
movement's global footprint extends far beyond those whom the US would label terrorists. Defining it down to a counterterrorism fight misses the point as no-go spaces increase globally.
Time for a new approach.
Next Tuesday,
@StateDeptCT
's Amb. Sales will discuss CT achievements over past four years and what remains to be done.
@hoffman_bruce
and I will then join him for a conversation about these issues at
@AEI
.
RSVP here:
Submit questions via
#StateCTatAEI
Major inflection related to Yemen as various factions (opposed to Houthis) agree on new make-up of Yemeni government. President Hadi transfers powers to a presidential council, VP Ali Mohsen al Ahmar is out.
Looking for more to come out of the talks in Riyadh.
Can confirm that Baghdadi was the target of a special operations raid in Syria today. Lots of chatter that the raid “got him”, but confirmation is still pending.
Thanks for catching my good side! 💁♀️
Grateful for the opportunity to support BATAAN ARG
@26MEU
last month. Impressed by the quality of our sailors and marines and their commitment to serve. 🇺🇸
As we look to the future of
#ISIS
, important to understand from where it came. A nugget I buried in my latest for us natsec nerds on how the Islamic State grew from local
#SalafiJihadi
base. Potential for branches to flip away now with leadership change.