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NEW | The Iranian Assembly of Experts elected its leadership board on May 21, marking a new era for the body responsible for selecting the next supreme leader. (1/7)

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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

2 years

The first 80 days of the war in #Ukraine mapped by @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar .

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2 years

Protests have been documented in 30 of #Iran 's 31 provinces as #Mahsa_Amini demonstrations enter their tenth consecutive day. 1/4 #IranProtests

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@criticalthreats

2 years

#IranProtests significantly expanded in size and scale on October 8 as anti-regime demonstrations entered their twenty-second consecutive day. #مهسا_امینی #اعتراضات_سراسری

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2 years

Footage circulating on social media suggests that protests following #Mahsah_Amini 's death have occurred in 19 of #Iran 's 31 provinces within the past three days. A thread: 1/5

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1 year

Reports suggest that chemical poisonings occurred in 116 separate schools--primarily girls' schools--in #Iran today. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario wherein the regime isn’t complicit in failing to protect these children. Here’s why: (1) #مسمومیت_دانشآموزان

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2 years

“Negotiations cannot end the #Russian war against #Ukraine ; they can only pause it...The conflict is unresolvable as long as Putinism rules the Kremlin. Negotiations won’t change that reality,” writes Frederick Kagan for @criticalthreats .

The Case Against Negotiations with Russia

Negotiations cannot end the Russian war against Ukraine; they can only pause it.

www.criticalthreats.org

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2 years

The first 90 days of the war in #Ukraine mapped by @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar .

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2 years

Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 29 #Iranian cities in 20 provinces. Iranian security forces are using increasingly violent and lethal means to suppress protests. From CTP and @TheStudyofWar . 1/2 #IranProtests #مهسا_امینی

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2 years

The ongoing, anti-regime protests are likely creating fractures among senior regime officials within the #Iranian security establishment. Read today's #IranProtests update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar . 1/5

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1 year

#Israel conducted a kamikaze drone attack on a military munitions factory near #Esfahan City, Esfahan Province in #Iran on January 28, according to Western media reports. Read today's special update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar . 1/4

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2 years

"People are not beans. Units are not units, except on a map,” said Fred Kagan to @PaulSonne . “If you take a bunch of pissed-off, demoralized, scared, untrained humans, give them weapons and throw them into a fighting force, you don’t have soldiers.”

Putin faces limits of his military power as Ukraine recaptures land

Russia’s leader is betting an impending infusion of drafted troops can change the dynamic on the battlefield in Ukraine, but he is losing time.

www.washingtonpost.com

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2 years

#Iran Crisis Update | Demonstrations erupted throughout Iran as #MahsaAmini protests expanded to involve at least 20 Iranian cities in 17 provinces on October 1. Read the latest update by @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar : 1/3

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2 years

Anti-regime protests in #Iran occurred in at least 17 cities in 14 provinces on October 4, primarily around universities and high schools. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar . 1/4

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2 years

Anti-regime protests in Iran occurred in at least 24 cities in 18 provinces on October 22—a significant increase from the protest activity in recent days. Read more from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar here:

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2 years

The continued public absence of #Iran ’s Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei may be hindering regime officials’ efforts to develop a coherent response to the ongoing, anti-regime protests. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar . 1/7

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1 year

The #Iranian regime has adopted what increasingly resembles a counter-insurgency approach rather than a counter-protest one to manage the ongoing unrest. Read today’s update on #IranProtests from CTP and @TheStudyofWar . 1/6

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2 years

#Iran Crisis Update | Anti-regime protests are continuing in at least 10 major cities in eight provinces and escalated violently in southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan Province on Sep. 30. Read the latest update by @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar . 1/3

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2 years

Social media users reported anti-regime demonstrations in at least 20 #Iranian cities in 16 provinces on October 22, marking a dramatic increase in protest activity from October 21. #اعتصابات_سراسری #IranProtests

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2 years

The ongoing, anti-regime protests in #Iran expanded significantly on October 26, occurring in at least 33 cities in 23 provinces. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar . (1/5)

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2 years

The #Iranian regime may inadvertently push the ongoing protests to become an enduring uprising against the political establishment. (1/4)

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2 years

Iran is signaling its readiness to attack Saudi Arabia and possibly Erbil ostensibly in retaliation for the Shiraz attack but primarily for the alleged role of the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia in stoking protests. Todays update from CTP & @TheStudyofWar :

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2 years

Uncorroborated reports suggest that #Iran is mobilizing its proxies to suppress ongoing #MahsaAmini protests. If true, #proxy participation may indicate that Iran fears disloyalty among security personnel and requires additional manpower to quell unrest. 1/4 #IranProtests

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2 years

#Iranian university and high school students are sustaining the momentum of the ongoing anti-regime protest movement, leading the demonstrations into their 37th consecutive day. Read more from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar here: (1/3)

Iran Crisis Update, October 23

Iranian university and high school students are sustaining the momentum of the ongoing protest movement, leading the demonstrations into ...

www.criticalthreats.org

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2 years

Anti-regime protests in #Iran occurred in at least 22 cities in 16 provinces, although this number is almost certainly higher. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar . 1/4

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1 year

The @nytimes and other Western outlets reported that #Iran has abolished its #morality_patrol , which enforces the mandatory hijab. But this is an overstatement. The regime has not made any such concession as #Iran_protests enter their twelfth straight week. (1/7)

The New York Times

@nytimes

1 year

Breaking News: Iran has abolished its morality police after months of protests set off by the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who was arrested over the strict Islamic dress code.

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1 year

NEW | Israeli combat aircraft conducted three airstrikes against likely #Iran -backed militants in eastern #Syria on January 29 and January 30. Read the full update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar here:

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2 years

Updated map on anti-regime protest activity in #Iran to reflect more of yesterday's protests. Read the October 8 update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar .

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2 years

Thousands of oil workers in #Iran reportedly participated in strikes and anti-regime protests in #Bushehr and #Khuzestan Provinces on October 10, which could pose a significant threat to the regime’s oil production if prolonged.

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2 years

Expanding protests could strain #Iranian state security services beyond their capabilities to respond in the coming days.

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2 years

#Iran has expanded internet censorship in recent days, indicating that regime leaders view ongoing protests following #MahsaAmini 's death as a serious threat. Here's what we know so far: 1/6

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2 years

Social media reports indicate that protests following #MahsaAmini 's death are ongoing and have now occurred in 24 of #Iran 's 31 Provinces. A thread: 1/6 #مهسا_امینی #IranProtests #MahsaAminii [Interactive graphics here: ]

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2 years

Circumstantial evidence suggests that #Iran ’s Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei is at least temporarily unable to perform his normal duties. Read the first daily Iran Crisis Update by @criticalthreats with @TheStudyofWar . 1/6

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2 years

#IranProtests highlight how the regime has prepared itself to brutally crack down on its people. These protests also highlight the cracks in the regime’s security apparatus. A thread: 1/7 #مهسا_امینی #سنندج

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2 years

Supreme Leader #Khamenei 's refusal to concede on the mandatory hijab law is likely driving fissures among #Iran 's political elite. #IranProtests (1/4)

Iran Crisis Update, October 18

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s refusal to concede on the mandatory hijab law is likely driving fissures among the political elite.

www.criticalthreats.org

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1 year

Over 110 separate student poisonings were reported throughout #Iran on March 6. Some have framed these incidents as “mass hysteria.” They’re not. Someone is deliberately poisoning Iranian children—we’re just not sure who. (1) #مسمومیت_دانش_آموزان

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2 years

NEW | Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali #Khamenei likely issued an unpublished directive to violently suppress anti-regime protests within the past few days. Read today's update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar : (1/5) #Iranprotests #Mahabad

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2 years

University and high school students have begun largely leading the ongoing protest movement in #Iran —at least for the moment. Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 17 cities in 14 provinces. 1/3

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9 months

"To put it simply, Ukraine is applying pressure on their opponent until something breaks, at which point they will commit their reserves and strike." Read more from CTP Director Fred Kagan and General David Petraeus (US Army, retired) for @PostOpinions :

Opinion | Ukraine’s counteroffensive might yet surprise critics

For Western observers, it’s important to keep this big picture in mind when following Ukraine’s grueling fight.

www.washingtonpost.com

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1 year

NEW | Iranian officials have threatened Ukraine and unnamed regional states for allegedly cooperating with Israel in response to the reported Israeli drone strike on a munitions factory in Esfahan on Jan 28. Read the update from @TheStudyofWar and CTP: 1/3

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1 year

CTP assesses with moderate confidence that the #Iranian regime is using the recent chemical attacks throughout #Iran to set conditions to securitize the country ahead of major national holidays. Read today's update from @TheStudyofWar and CTP: (1/5)

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1 year

NEW | The regime’s protest crackdown and abuse of arrested demonstrators will alienate large swaths of the population and entrench anti-regime sentiment throughout #Iran for a long time. Read the full update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar : 1/5

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1 year

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly rejected the possibility of compromise or reform to placate the ongoing protests. (1/8)

Iran Crisis Update, November 26

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly rejected the possibility of compromise or reform to placate the ongoing protests on November 26.

www.criticalthreats.org

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2 years

#Iran 's Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei made his first public appearance since Sep. 21 to condemn the ongoing, anti-regime protests. Protests increased in number to at least 18 #Iranian cities in 16 provinces. Today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar . 1/3

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2 years

Key #Iranian military leaders may be endorsing President Ebrahim #Raisi to succeed Ali #Khamenei as #Iran ’s next supreme leader. Here is what happened and why it matters: (1/8)

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2 years

Certain components of the ongoing protest movement in Iran may have reached the threshold identified in US military doctrine for a “latent and incipient” insurgency. Read CTP and @TheStudyofWar ’s daily Iran Crisis Update here:

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1 year

Some protest organizers in #Iran are trying to push the protest movement into a new phase—one that could include more militant activity against the #Iranian regime. Read today’s update by @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar . 1/4

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2 years

#Ukraine has shown in this terrible trial by fire its determination to make itself free and functional. That is an effort worth investing in, write Fred Kagan ( @criticalthreats ) and Mark Polyak ( @Ipsos ) in @TIME .

Ukraine’s Resilience Transcends the Battlefield

A series of polls suggests that the war has increased the Ukrainian people’s trust in their government

time.com

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2 years

Iranian university and high school students are sustaining the momentum of the ongoing anti-regime protest movement. Anti-regime protests in #Iran occurred in at least 16 cities in 13 provinces on October 23.

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2 years

Parents of #Iranian youth spearheading ongoing demonstrations are increasingly describing protests as a revolutionary movement, mirroring their children’s rhetoric. Read more in today's update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar . (1/5)

Iran Crisis Update, November 4

Parents of Iranian youth spearheading ongoing demonstrations are increasingly describing protests as a revolutionary movement, mirroring ...

www.criticalthreats.org

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2 years

#Iranian security forces are brutally suppressing protestors in #Sanandaj , #Kurdistan Province. Here's what else you need to know today from CTP and @TheStudyofWar 's Iran Crisis Update: #سنندج #مهسا_امینی

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8 months

NEW | "It’s time to end the argument about specific weapons platforms and get Ukraine what it needs." Read CTP Director and @AEI Senior Fellow Fred Kagan in @WSJopinion :

Opinion | Ukraine Needs Weapons, Not Debates Over Which Ones

No arms are perfect, and Kyiv’s supporters shouldn’t make the perfect the enemy of the good.

www.wsj.com

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2 years

The #Iranian regime has likely deployed its #Artesh Ground Forces to suppress ongoing protests surrounding #MahsaAmini ’s death. Here’s why it matters: 1/5

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2 years

#Protests are continuing to surge throughout #Iran as protesters take to the streets to commemorate the three-year anniversary of the regime’s brutal crackdown on the #Bloody_Aban protest wave. (1/5)

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1 year

Western media inaccurately reported that the #Iranian regime abolished its morality patrol on December 4. The regime has not made such a concession. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar . 1/5

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2 years

“If you’re turning to a country [like North Korea] that has effectively zero GDP and is using World War II-era systems as its main tanks, if you’re buying stuff from them, then you’re hurting,” said Fred Kagan about #Russia 's stockpiles to @ForeignPolicy .

Ukraine’s Appetite for Weapons Is Straining Western Stockpiles

“I think everyone now is sufficiently worried,” a NATO official said.

foreignpolicy.com

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2 years

The #Russian withdrawal from western #Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks. Read the full update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar .

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2 years

Demonstrations erupted throughout Iran as #MahsaAmini protests entered their fifteenth consecutive day. Keep an eye out for CTP's full update and protest map for more details. #IranProtests #مهسا_امینی

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2 years

Expanding protests could strain #Iranian state security services beyond their capabilities to respond in the coming days. Such a scenario would strain the regime’s capability to suppress protests in major cities and border regions at the same time.

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1 year

Social media users reported significant countrywide strikes in 73 cities across 27 provinces, although this number is almost certainly higher.

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2 years

NEW | Protesters are establishing routines for when they protest and how they prepare. They have established a routine of demonstrating on Wednesdays and Saturdays. Read today's update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar :

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2 years

NEW | #Iran and its proxies may attack US positions in #Iraq and #Syria in retaliation for an Israeli drone strike on an #Iranian convoy in eastern Syria. Read today's update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar : (1/6)

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1 year

NEW | The #IranProtests are rising and returning to levels not seen since the end of 2022. Read the latest from CTP and @thestudyofwar here: (1/6)

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2 years

#IranProtests occurred in at least 17 cities in 11 provinces as anti-regime demonstrations entered their 38th consecutive day. Here’s what else you need to know today from CTP and @TheStudyofWar ’s daily #Iran Crisis update:

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1 year

NEWS | Today, #UN member states voted to expel Iran from the UN Commission on the Status of Women after years of systemic human rights abuses against Iranian women and girls. Thread: (1/5)

Bahman Kalbasi

@BahmanKalbasi

1 year

Islamic Republic of Iran is now removed from UN’s Commission on Status of Women. 29 of 54 members voted in favor only 8 opposed.

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1 year

Protest activity and strikes in #Iran increased significantly on December 5, in line with the calls from protest coordinators and organizations for countrywide demonstrations until December 7. Read CTP and @TheStudyofWar ’s daily Iran Update here:

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2 years

Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei addressed the #Iranian protests publicly for the second time on October 12, reiterating his accusation that foreign enemies are responsible for the unrest.

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2 years

#Iranian security forces brutally cracked down on anti-regime protests at #SharifUniversity in #Tehran on October 2. Here's what you can expect from CTP's #IranProtests update later today: 1/5

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2 years

Protest activity in #Iran increased on October 26. Today marks the 40th day since the regime killed #MahsaAmini . @criticalthreats will release an updated map later today.

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2 years

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps ( #IRGC ) began a three-day military exercise along the #Iran -Azerbaijan border on October 17 likely to threaten #Azerbaijan for allegedly hosting Israeli intelligence agents and stoking anti-regime protests. (1/4)

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2 years

NEW | Some #Raisi administration officials have advocated for political reform in recent days, likely to appease protesters in #Iran . Read todays update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar : (1/4)

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2 years

Thousands of Iranian protesters have gathered in #Saghez —the hometown of #Mahsa_Amini —to commemorate the 40th day since her death. A thread on these latest developments: 1/7 #مهسا_امینی

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2 years

#Iran may be preparing to escalate militarily against its foreign adversaries, including the US, in response to the ongoing, anti-regime protests. Read the October 9 update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar

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2 years

Updated map on anti-regime protest activity in #Iran to reflect yesterday's protests that occurred late in the evening. Read the October 6 update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar .

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1 year

NEW | The Iranian regime failed to suppress demonstrations in #Zahedan , Sistan and Baluchistan Province on January 6. Read the full update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar here:

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1 year

Protest activity in #Iran may increase on December 5-7. The recent calls for protests may highlight the increasing organization and sophistication of the protest movement as well as some fractures. Read the latest from CTP and @TheStudyofWar .

Iran Crisis Update, November 30

Protest activity may increase on December 5-7. The recent calls for protests may highlight the increasing organization and sophistication...

www.criticalthreats.org

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2 years

#IranProtests began on September 16 following the death of #Mahsa_Amini and continue to persist. @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar have tracked the evolution of the protests with daily maps and updates. Learn more here:

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2 years

“Neither #Ukrainians nor their friends around the world must give in to #Putin or be deluded by the current mirage of #Russian success and power he is presenting in the Battle of Severodonetsk. For mirage it is,” writes Frederick W. Kagan in @TIME .

The New Russian Offensive Is Intended to Project Power It Cannot Sustain

The Russian offensive is a final push by Putin before he exhausts his military capability—Ukraine can defeat them if it keeps up its morale

time.com

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1 year

NEW | Protest activity in Iran increased on January 23, particularly among petrochemical employees and retired education and telecommunications workers, suggesting some degree of coordination among workers. Read the update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar (1/5)

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1 year

Europe and NATO will be profoundly affected by a future #Russian invasion of #Ukraine as they have been by this one, and the US will face the same imperative to support its allies in the future as it does today, writes Frederick Kagan for @criticalthreats .

The Long-Term Risks of a Premature Ceasefire in Ukraine

American policymakers today must focus on the imperative of resolving the current conflict in ways that do not set conditions for renewed...

www.criticalthreats.org

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2 years

There can be no better outcome of this war for the US, NATO and free peoples everywhere than such a Ukrainian victory. But the West must do what’s needed, short of intervening in the fight directly, to help Ukraine win, writes CTP's Fred Kagan in @thehill .

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6 months

"The outcome of this war is going to be determined primarily by what the Ukrainians can do, but a very close second by what the United States chooses to do." @AEI Senior Fellow & CTP Director Fred Kagan spoke to the @BBCWorld about US support for Ukraine:

Zelensky abruptly cancels US Senate briefing amid funding row

The Ukrainian president pulled out of a briefing with senators debating more funds for Ukraine.

www.bbc.com

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1 year

At least 11 protests took place in seven cities across five provinces in #Iran . Read today’s #IranProtests update by @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar . 1/3

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10 months

NEW | A successful coup in Niger would likely further strengthen al Qaeda and the Islamic State by preoccupying Nigerien security forces and hindering international security cooperation. Read today's Salafi-Jihadi Movement Special Edition: 1/7

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1 year

NEW | Funerals and commemoration ceremonies for killed protesters are continuing to sustain anti-regime activity throughout #Iran as demonstrations enter their fifteenth consecutive week. Read the full update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar here:

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1 year

Protest organizers called for gatherings outside the Rajaei Shahr prison in Karaj, Alborz Province—where the two protesters are being held—and social media users have reported that crowds have begun to form. Read the update from @thestudyofwar and CTP:

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1 year

Some Iranian protesters celebrated the US victory over #Iran in the #WorldCup . Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar . 1/6

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2 years

Anti-regime protests in #Iran may have occurred in at least four cities in four provinces—a significant decrease from the previous day’s protest activity. Read the latest update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar . 1/4

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2 years

IRGC Commander Hossein Salami set conditions to violently escalate the suppression of ongoing, anti-regime demonstrations on October 29. Read the latest from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar : (1/4)

Iran Crisis Update, October 29

IRGC Commander Hossein Salami set conditions to violently escalate the suppression of ongoing, anti-regime demonstrations on October 29.

www.criticalthreats.org

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1 year

Recent comments from Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps ( #IRGC ) leaders reflect the ongoing divisions within the Iranian regime, and especially the IRGC, over the protests in #Iran . Read today's update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar . 1/2

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2 years

#Iran ’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali #Khamenei is likely escalating against prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid, who has become increasingly critical of the regime in recent weeks. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar . 1/3

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2 years

NEW | Unverified reporting and social media footage suggests that the regime deployed the IRGC Ground Forces to violently suppress protests in Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province on November 19. Read today's update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar :

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1 year

NEW | Protest activity among petrochemical workers increased significantly on January 17, suggesting protest coordination among some labor groups. Read today's update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar : 1/2

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2 years

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps ( #IRGC ) may be mobilizing retired servicemembers and other affiliated officers to suppress protests in #Tehran on October 15. (1/3)

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2 years

Protest activity in #Iran will likely increase—possibly significantly—on October 26 to commemorate the 40th day since the regime killed #MahsaAmini . Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar . 1/4

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@criticalthreats

1 year

NEW | The Iranian regime is coordinating with Qatari officials to suppress public acts of defiance among Iranians in Doha. Here’s what else you need to know today from CTP and @TheStudyofWar ’s daily #Iran update:

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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

1 year

NEW | Anti-regime strikes and demonstrations sustained momentum on December 7 as nation-wide calls to protest entered their third and final day. Read the new update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar : (1/6)

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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

2 years

The #Iranian regime has begun indicting and sentencing arrested protesters as part of the increasingly harsh and uncompromising stance that the regime has adopted toward the ongoing protests. Read the latest from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar : (1/6)

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@criticalthreats

2 years

But #Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience in the face of a #Russian attack that has deliberately targeted economic and infrastructure facilities throughout the country and not only near the front lines, write Fred Kagan and Mark Polyak in @TIME . 1/3

Ukraine’s Resilience Transcends the Battlefield

A series of polls suggests that the war has increased the Ukrainian people’s trust in their government

time.com

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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

2 years

#Iran ’s senior military leadership accused the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia of stoking the ongoing, anti-regime protests and vowed to retaliate. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar . 1/3

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@criticalthreats

1 year

Reports suggest that chemical #poisonings occurred in 205 separate schools--primarily girls' schools--in #Iran on March 5. #مسمومیت_دانش_آموزان (1)

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