Eli Dourado @elidourado Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

Eli Dourado

8 days

New on elidourado dot com: Dozens of human societies have collapsed, going from a high level of sociopolitical complexity to a much lower one—rapidly, within the span of a few decades. Would we know if it was about to happen to us?

A beginner’s guide to sociopolitical collapse

How (not) to end up in the ash heap of history

www.elidourado.com

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

A manatee with twin calves looks like an SR-71 Blackbird.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

2 years

Elon paid $11 billion in federal income taxes this year, more than any person ever. Stay classy, Senator.

Elizabeth Warren

@ewarren

2 years

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

4 years

Let’s be the America Hong Kong thinks we are. ❤️

Daily Caller

@DailyCaller

4 years

The scene in Hong Kong 🇺🇸 🇭🇰

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

2 years

The 2009 stimulus put $8 billion into high-speed rail, which hasn’t resulted in any high-speed rail after 13 years. It costs infinity dollars per mile to build high-speed rail in the US.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

1 year

People. Bitcoin does not solve banking or bank runs. Bitcoin can handle 7 transactions per second. If 300 million Americans wanted to do one Bitcoin transaction each it would take 496 days.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 months

Agree with Balaji. Elon is singular. He also shares his engineering secrets. I think nothing would please him more than if a thousand other hardware founders rigorously followed his five-step process.

Balaji

@balajis

3 months

Hardware is hard. That’s why Elon is by far the greatest founder of all time. Remember — countless startups die just while trying to put stationary beige boxes on desktops. Very smart people get crushed by supply chain disruptions, or China tariffs, or lockdowns, or shipping…

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

1 year

This is a fun one. White to move. Mate in one. Watch out for pins. Can you find it?

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

mRNA cancer therapy works (in mice). Original paper: “Nineteen of 20 mice treated with the four-component mixture had complete tumor regression.” Human trial now recruiting:

Local delivery of mRNA-encoded cytokines promotes antitumor immunity and tumor eradication across...

Local immunotherapy with an mRNA mixture encoding four cytokines mobilizes a systemic antitumor response and promotes tumor eradication.

www.science.org

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

4 years

In the Starlink terms of service, you have to agree that “no Earth-based government has authority or sovereignty over Martian activities.”

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

9 years

Early wearable computer: Qing Dynasty abacus ring. http://t.co/QNV5A3iXCb

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

This is $820 per U.S. household. A Starlink terminal costs $499. How about we just buy a Starlink terminal for every household that wants one and doesn't have access to fixed broadband? Would save $80B.

Makena Kelly

@kellymakena

3 years

NEW: Biden’s infrastructure package includes $100 billion to connect every American to high speed broadband within the decade.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

6 months

Obviously not everyone wants to live in one of these. But if we had a few of them placed in high-priced city centers, that would mean lower housing costs for everyone, including people in idyllic suburbs (if that’s where you want to live).

Massimo

@Rainmaker1973

6 months

The Regent International apartment building in Hangzhou, China, has over 20,000 people living in it. The building is 206 meters tall and has 36 to 39 floors. It has swimming pools, barber shops, nail salons, medium-sized supermarkets, and internet cafes.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

Crazy idea you all will hate for solving ransomware: Make ransomware legal except you can only charge individuals $100 and organizations $5000. Legality induces entry into the ransomware industry so that we quickly find all the obvious security holes without catastrophic cost.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

2 years

My son knows that the Roman Republic became the Roman Empire and that the Galactic Republic became the Galactic Empire, and now he’s worried about the Dominican Republic.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

2 years

This winter is going to suck. - Russia is going to invade Ukraine - Europe is going to freeze - China’s Zero Covid policy + ineffective vaccines are going to fail against Omicron in a massive wave - Supply chain fallout from 👆 could be legit Happy solstice. Buckle up.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

New blog post: Is the Great Stagnation ending? What technologies am I watching in the decade ahead? Are we going to get life extension treatments soon? 5700+ words on all of this. Please read and share!

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

Build housing Design proteins Cure aging Occupy Mars Price carbon Mine heat Mine asteroids Fuse atoms Fly hypersonic Fly…everywhere Use robots Dig tunnels Stake crypto Farm indoors Grow meat Go faster

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

4 years

Non-space people, pay attention, this is huge. SpaceX is building a factory to churn out a Starship—the most powerful and most advanced launch vehicle in history, capable of taking 150 tons to Mars—every 72 hours. For $5M/each.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission was established in 1975. In the entire history of the agency, no license initially submitted to the NRC has yet begun operations. 🤯

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

This looks stupidly unsafe yet amazingly cool. It’s an ultralight sold as a homebuilt kit, so highly unregulated, no pilot’s license required. $92k. First deliveries in 2022.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

Any time you see a blimp, you are looking at 4% of the world’s blimps. Sad.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

2 years

The chart that Putin doesn’t want Europe to see. Nuclear is safe.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

2 years

It is baffling to me that very few if any of you are freaked out by the likelihood of a global supply-side recession. /ht @mattparlmer

Lord Woodstone (Toss all MAPS out the airlock)

@EricMertz_KC

2 years

Holy shit, China is even more fucked than I thought...

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

4 years

Tim Cook: “We don’t have a dominant share in any market or in any product category where we do business.” Translation: “Why the fuck am I here?”

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

1 year

Today is the 50th anniversary of one of the most destructive acts of industrial vandalism in history: the ban on supersonic flight over the US. It's why we're not flying NY-LA in 90 minutes. Congress can end the ban this year. Make America boom again.

50 years of silence

It's time to end the speed limit in US airspace

www.elidourado.com

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

Now a pill that cures Covid. In dosing trials. Wow.

Pfizer is testing a pill that, if successful, could become first-ever home cure for COVID-19

nationalpost.com

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

8 years

I’ve been paying attention to British politics for 45 minutes or so, ask me anything.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

4 years

OK, folks, here it is: The absolute best place to track the election tonight is on my site. All data refresh every 2 minutes. You get an electoral map, a state-by-state Monte Carlo simulation, and lots of sortable tables. Go ahead, melt my servers.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

2 months

I had never considered before that we might solve terrorism by becoming so collectively stupid that no one can agree who perpetrated the attack. No point in terrorizing if you don’t get the credit!

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

11 months

I want every single person in the world who has this work ethic to move to America.

CommonSenseAmerican🇺🇸

@CommonSens19282

11 months

Communism really does destroy the human will and spirit

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

2 years

The SpaceX effect

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

In most countries, if they want college-educated people, they have to grow them from scratch and pay all the K-12 expenses, etc. Here in the US they just fall into our lap fully formed. It would feel like cheating, if only we were smart enough to take full advantage.

Alec Stapp

@AlecStapp

3 years

Instead of “staple a green card to every diploma,” we should be aiming higher: Automatic citizenship upon earning a diploma.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

4 years

This is what we believe

Latest in space

@latestinspace

4 years

A colonized Moon. One day this could be our view from Earth. (📷empyreanskin)

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

1 year

Body fat has 37 kJ of energy per gram. Converting to battery units, that’s 10,278 Wh/kg. The best lithium-ion battery packs on the mass market today are around 270 Wh/kg. So human biology is still 38x as good as lithium-ion batteries. A lot of room to get better.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

11 months

There’s a market for a college where the application is only an SAT score.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

Me in the NY Times: BUILD, abolish zoning, end environmental review

Opinion | We Need to Build Our Way Out of This Mess (Published 2021)

We must sweep away the regulations that keep us from building housing and infrastructure.

www.nytimes.com

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

1 year

I'm fascinated by the fact that cargo airships get more efficient as they get bigger, forever. How far can we push it? My friends and I hired an engineer to design us the biggest flying object ever to find out.

Cargo airships could be big

A capital-intensive, high-risk way to revolutionize global commerce

www.elidourado.com

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

4 years

Healthcare is 18% of GDP. Housing is 16% of GDP. Together 34%. There is no amount of protectionism or “good jobs” policy that will help the working class more than dramatically increasing productivity in these two sectors.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

Air pollution reduces global life expectancy by 2.2 years on average. That’s more than alcohol use, unsafe water and sanitation, HIV/AIDS, and malaria combined.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

Some families will be unable to heat their homes this winter because so many nuclear power plants have been shut down. Let that sink in.

Opinion | A Scary Energy Winter Is Coming. Don’t Blame the Greens. (Published 2021)

Too many people could face a choice between eating and heating.

www.nytimes.com

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

7 months

Is everyone posting their ChatGPT custom instructions? Can we make that a thing? Here is my current set: I don't need caveats about safety or complexity of the topic, warnings that I should consult an expert, or other disclaimers. Please just answer the question as directly as…

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

6 months

EPIC. FDA has agreed that @loyalfordogs ’s first drug supports a reasonable expectation of large dog lifespan extension. Congrats @celinehalioua and team!

FDA Center for Veterinary Medicine agrees Loyal’s data supports reasonable expectation of effecti...

A historic milestone in developing the first drug for healthy lifespan extension in dogs

loyalfordogs.com

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

2 years

The damage from scientific institutions not being 100% honest with the public is massive. Want to know why some people don’t trust science? It’s because some scientists are playing (crappy, ineffective) politics.

Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate c…

archived 11 Jan 2022 21:50:17 UTC

archive.md

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

9 months

A lot of people think we should inject sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere to cool the earth. They’re wrong. We should inject calcium carbonate. It’s more reflective.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

4 months

This is some real clown shit from the Biden administration. Complete betrayal of our allies while producing negative climate value as Europe will mine more lignite.

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

4 months

FULL STATEMENT: And it's official. The White House announces a "temporary pause" on pending approvals of American LNG export terminals. The statement is below, and links here to the comuniqué itself: and a White House factsheet:

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

2 years

An amazing thing about Elon is that he will tell you the specifications of his product as it’s under development as well as his thought process about it. He knows none of his competitors can take that info and catch up. He is completely unafraid of that.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

6 years

I haven’t blogged about cryptocurrency in a couple years, so here’s a 4200-word weekend post summarizing my current thinking. Basically, I think Ethereum is the only game in town. This is sure to make me a lot of friends.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

2 years

No time zones, everyone moves to UTC.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

10 years

Everything you need to know about cyberterrorism in one chart http://t.co/a4AECZgQ5a

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

1 year

@patrickc Great NYT quote about North Africa being less politically dysfunctional than California.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

8 years

Everything you need to know about aircraft colliding with drones in one chart

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

Unpopular take: I think we will come to regret doing a bunch of infrastructure subsidies (easy) before figuring out how to make it easier to build infrastructure (hard). Order matters.

Deregulation before subsidies: Order matters

Sometimes, the order in which you do things matters. Senior Research Fellow Eli Dourado explains in a blog post.

www.thecgo.org

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

14 days

One of my motivating beliefs is that a lot of people are stupid and it’s up to the smart and competent people to *actually deliver growing prosperity for everyone* so that the stupid people don’t feel the need to roll up their sleeves and get involved in policy.

Chris Elmendorf

@CSElmendorf

14 days

What do we find? The people want price controls! And demand subsidies! And restrictions on Wall. St. investors! /11

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

1 year

Some charts from a recent talk I gave, enjoy! Here is TFP growth since 1947. Your income would be ~2x as high today if this hadn’t stagnated.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

8 years

New short paper with @raymondopolis : Turns out we are letting crazy people make airport noise policy

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

4 years

China has 70k+ people who are now immune. Free visas for anyone who has recovered from COVID who wants to work in NYC hospitals or other surging places.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

2 years

My latest: If we want to avoid possible looming stagflation, we must turn away from boomer clown policies and act now to increase the productive capacity of the economy.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

Omg. Article 7 requires every “economic agent” to accept bitcoin. It’s going to be interesting since the entire Bitcoin blockchain only has enough throughput to allow every Salvadoran to do one L1 transaction every 20 days (assuming no one else in the world uses it at all).

Nayib Bukele

@nayibbukele

3 years

I’ve just sent the #BitcoinLaw to Congress 🇸🇻

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

1 year

The penalties for nonperformance piece of this is WILD. It’s like a dominant assurance contract between two parties @ATabarrok .

Sam Altman

@sama

1 year

microsoft becomes helion's first customer, in the first commercial deal for fusion power:

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

2 years

Daughter after counting her small money stash: Daddy, money’s not the most important thing, right? Me: Right, real resources are the most important thing.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

6 months

Oh, and if you think a nonprofit board can be erratic and insane, perhaps give some thought to what a new federal AI regulatory agency might do.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

7 years

Venezuelans mine Bitcoin with free electricity and then use the profits to order food from Amazon Prime Pantry.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 months

This thing (well, a bigger version of it) is going to fly much sooner and for way less money than you think and the market size is a hell of a lot bigger than space launch.

Ian Brooke

@k2pilot

3 months

I've kept a pretty low (online) profile of what I'm building, but word's getting out. My company Astro Mechanica has invented a new kind of jet engine. Unlike any existing engine, it's efficient at every speed. Because it's efficient at every speed, we can use it in a new way:…

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@elidourado

2 months

Which will cost less per mile and be completed first: California HSR or the train on the literal moon?

Northrop Grumman

@NGCNews

2 months

DARPA selected us to further develop the concept of building a moon-based railroad network that would transport humans, supplies and resources for commercial ventures. Learn more:

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

2 years

Nice column from @ezraklein . If Democrats want a concrete supply-side agenda: Unlimited clean energy <2¢/kWh Healthcare costs <10% of GDP (w/ quality improvements) Median home price < 3x med household income All infrastructure permits issued <6 months

Opinion | Can Democrats See What’s Coming? (Published 2022)

They need to realize that America’s future does not lie in Europe’s past.

www.nytimes.com

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

2 years

Twitter needs to do a better job of protecting these OSINT accounts. Russian controlled accounts are reporting them for fake violations and Twitter has been algorithmically suspending them for 12 hours. Twitter is part of the battlefield now.

OSINTtechnical

@Osinttechnical

2 years

What really worries me the most (and IMO was demonstrated today) is that any Russian invasion will almost certainly include some form of mass reporting in order to disable smaller OSINT accounts.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

10 months

The tiger He destroyed his cage Yes YES The tiger is out

The US government is taking a serious step toward space-based nuclear propulsion

"NASA is looking to go to Mars with this system."

arstechnica.com

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@elidourado

6 months

Politico: “Congress at the urging of the Biden administration agreed in 2021 to spend $7.5 billion to build tens of thousands of electric vehicle chargers across the country, aiming to appease anxious drivers while tackling climate change. Two years later, the program has yet to…

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@elidourado

4 years

Want to know another totally predictable catastrophe we are underprepared for? A large solar coronal mass ejection. There would be no electricity and no Internet access for months as we tried to replace long-lead-time equipment like power transformers. Have a nice day.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

New portable nuclear microreactor company from ex-SpaceX team

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

8 years

By popular demand, aircraft-turtle collisions over time

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@elidourado

2 years

Why don’t people trust science? Maybe because political extremists invoke it to say obvious bullshit like this.

Ben See

@ClimateBen

2 years

Scientists have reached a consensus on economic growth: abolish it or face extinction. 🧵

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@elidourado

5 years

For the first 99.9% of human history, the wealth of the wealthy was taken through plunder rather than made through meeting others’ needs. But Bezos didn’t plunder anyone. The increasingly expressed desire to cut down billionaires is a result of obsolete evolutionary conditioning.

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@elidourado

3 years

Monday: Protein folding solved Tuesday: Ethereum 2.0 launches Wednesday: SpaceX Starship hop to 50,000 feet (space gods willing) A lot of pressure on Thursday right now to be honest.

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@elidourado

8 years

Evil corporation revenge porns a working class hero, gay vigilante ensures justice is served, and the left sides with the corporation?

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@elidourado

2 years

It is absolutely mind-blowing to me that in this age of deep polarization the one thing our Members of Congress can agree on is that they must punish the only industry that is doing what it is supposed to be doing.

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@elidourado

1 year

Bad way to start 2023: realize that you had $3.5M in Bitcoin stolen from you yesterday. If a Bitcoin developer can’t safely store his own keys, normal people can’t either. We are very far from scaling self-custody in crypto.

Luke Dashjr

@LukeDashjr

1 year

PSA: My PGP key is compromised, and at least many of my bitcoins stolen. I have no idea how. Help please. #Bitcoin

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@elidourado

1 year

It’s conceivable that AI will help us discover new, highly-targeted drugs at a very rapid pace. It seems very mismatched with our current drug approval regime.

Jeremy 'adjusted for inflation' Horpedahl 📈

@jmhorp

1 year

It only took 90 minutes

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@elidourado

1 year

It's weird that consciousness can result from matter, but what really makes my head explode is wondering whether the universe has other consciousness-like phenomena that we don't experience but in principle could.

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@elidourado

2 years

The Merge is roughly equivalent to 9 nuclear power plants opening up overnight.

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@elidourado

3 years

What is your Musk-level idea, and what is stopping you from doing it?

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@elidourado

6 months

Without NEPA, we would have to suffer the environmental consequences of hastily approved...*checks notes*...tree planting.

San Francisco Chronicle

@sfchronicle

6 months

The National Park Service is replanting California’s burned sequoia groves. Environmentalists are suing to stop it.

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@elidourado

9 months

Re-upping this. Biden’s Council on Environmental Quality is trying to amend NEPA implementing rules to give weight to Indigenous Knowledge instead of just science. Among many other changes that increase environmental review’s legal attack surface.

Eli Dourado

@elidourado

10 months

I don’t remember this being in the debt ceiling bill.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

2 years

Have never seen gas fees on Ethereum this high. $70M burned in the last hour. Turns out the ape jpeg people are getting scammed into to buying fake ape land or something.

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@elidourado

3 years

Biden still hasn’t appointed a new head of the FDA. I vote for @ATabarrok . Please RT if you agree.

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@elidourado

5 years

How to make everyone rich: 1) Clean energy too cheap to meter 2) A step change in transportation speed and quality 3) Abundant housing supply 4) Much longer life expectancy If you don't know what to do with your life, consider working on one of these.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

1 year

NEW POST: I have a nagging worry that AI will be like smartphones. It will change our lives, but it won’t address the major bottlenecks in the economy. If we’re complacent, stagnation will continue.

Heretical thoughts on AI

Robert Solow quipped, “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” What if AI is the same way? What if it changes everything except the economy?

www.elidourado.com

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

4 months

Reading a textbook, as an adult, in a field you never studied before is both allowed and a huge source of alpha.

Patrick Hsu

@pdhsu

4 months

also underappreciated: reading actual textbooks long after you’ve left formal school I have a whole spiel about the chasm that is adult learning. Remarkably few people continue to digest structured or didactic content when they don’t “have” to

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

10 days

People should be allowed to choose their own food. This isn’t hard.

Senator John Fetterman

@SenFettermanPA

12 days

Pains me deeply to agree with Crash-and-Burn Ron, but I co-sign this. As a member of @SenateAgDems and as some dude who would never serve that slop to my kids, I stand with our American ranchers and farmers. 🇺🇸

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@elidourado

3 years

This is amazing. @bryan_johnson is going all out to reduce his biological age and sharing his data and protocols publicly. /ht @ArtirKel

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@elidourado

2 years

Literally every part of the economy is hampered by insane rules that only rise to national consciousness when the situation reaches crisis levels. A great way to run a country. This will end well.

Scott Lincicome

@scottlincicome

2 years

1) Repeal all baby formula tariffs (tariff rate quotas) 2) Require the FDA to allow the importation of any formula approved by a competent regulator (EU, Switzerland, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, etc) 3) Reform WIC (eg, no more sole source contacts)

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

7 years

One thing ICOs show for sure is that for better or for worse US securities law deters a lot of investment.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

2 years

Remember, kids, geothermal is a much more abundant energy source than nuclear fission, on this planet at least.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

12 days

Glioblastoma is a kind of brain cancer that until now has been a swift death sentence. In a trial in human patients, a therapeutic mRNA vaccine appears to work!

mRNA Cancer Vaccine Reprograms Immune System to Tackle Glioblastoma

In a first-ever human clinical trial, an mRNA cancer vaccine quickly reprograms the immune system to attack glioblastoma.

www.insideprecisionmedicine.com

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

It was a pleasure to testify today on the need to build.

Joint Economic Committee Republicans

@JECRepublicans

3 years

. @cgousu 's Dr. @elidourado testifies before the Joint Economic Committee: “There is a slogan that represents one vision of the future: ‘Electrify everything.’ Like all slogans, it oversimplifies.”

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

Why oh why is anyone skeptical of the media?

Clay Travis

@ClayTravis

3 years

This is wild. Watch Ron DeSantis’s full answer on Publix, Walgreen’s and CVS vaccine distribution and look at the edited cut 60 Minutes used:

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

5 years

Libertarians: We want open borders, upzoning, occupational licensing reform, criminal justice reform, drug decriminalization, school choice, and taco trucks on every corner. FDR-worshipper (!): Clearly this is all a racist dog-whistle.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

FDA says it will take three weeks to review/approve Pfizer’s EUA application, but they should just approve the application immediately and then revoke the authorization if they discover anything worrying in the paperwork in the next three weeks.

Pfizer Applies for Emergency F.D.A. Approval for Covid-19 Vaccine (Published 2020)

A large team of regulators at the agency will take about three weeks to review an application spanning thousands of pages.

www.nytimes.com

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

4 years

Cryptocurrency will never work because if you make a mistake sending money it’s impossible to reverse the transaction like in the legacy banking system. Oh wait.

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Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

Any energy abundance agenda is inherently low carbon. A Kardashev Type I civilization powered entirely with Earth’s fossil fuel reserves would last only 45 days.

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