The law prof at UC Davis, not the developer in San Diego. Dad. Denizen of San Francisco. Patron of Amtrak. Tweets are my own, not statements of UC. (he/him)
Some striking asides in this
@nytimes
story about Houston's success combatting chronic homelessness:
- 75% of homeless persons given a free apartment for a year hang on & pay market rents
- Houston has *new* SROs (what other cities allow it?)
1/2
Is environmentalism the main obstacle to infill housing in California?
Over last 2 years, I've done significant pro bono work on CA housing bills & the sausage-making I've observed points to a very uncomfortable answer: Yes. 1/🧵.
A stunner: By huge majorities, both chambers of Washington leg. have voted to exempt *all* zoning-compliant housing in urban growth areas from mini-NEPA review.
There's no project-labor mandate, BMR housing mandate, or anything else to jack up cost of eligible projects.
1/5
By 49-0, the WA Senate just passed SB 5412 that exempts housing projects from SEPA review and requires "clear and objective standards" for design review.
Thank you Senator Salomon!
Wild to see legislators geeking out so heavily on housing policy with this wonky bill!
#Homes4WA
A Christmas Eve surprise from Court of Appeal in UC Berkeley "students are pollution" CEQA case.
tl,dr: UC Berkeley & state housing + antidiscrimination policy got a lump of coal in their stockings.
CEQA is about to get much, much worse unless the Leg or the AG steps in. 1/25
Terrific
@ezraklein
column this morning.
It's an indictment of blue-state Dems that Ezra's search for "ideas about how to build state capacity on the left" has come up empty. 1/4
A big theme is that Houston has become less affordable, but it's still WAY more affordable than big cities in the Northeast and on the West Coast.
Hard to imagine a formerly homeless person hanging on at ~$3000/month in San Francisco (vs. $886/mo. in Houston) 2/2
Big builders-remedy news out of Santa Monica:
@California_HCD
weighs in on proposed project, says that developer's filing of "preliminary application" while city is out of compliance with housing element law "vests" the project's eligibility for builder's remedy. 1/8
California to developers: Build apartments near transit! Pay union wages! Reserve 20% of units for poor people! It's urgent!
Developers to California: uh, guys, we'd lose our shirts if we tried.
Read new
@TernerHousing
's report to see why.
1/3
A 🧵 on how California enviros lost the plot on infill housing & got rolled by sprawl builders.
trigger warning: if you give money to mainstream green groups in CA, this thread may be hard to read.
1/25
San Francisco--which bans apartment mergers & demolition of SROs in order to preserve small units--has just denied another downtown housing project b/c the units would be "too small."
Here's your friendly reminder that bad-faith denials trigger 5X fines under the HAA. /1
In just the latest example of opting for parking lots over housing, the San Francisco planning commission rejected a proposal for 57 apartments in SOMA. This comes as the state is investigating the city’s poor housing track record. Story by
@SFjkdineen
.
I figured Yimby freakout over this podcast episode was probably just decontextual exaggeration. But I listened and it’s not.
Don’t think I’ve ever heard more naive/wrong answers from a prominent mainstream Democrat to Qs about housing markets.
New L.A. Mayor
@KarenBassLA
has concerns about the construction of market-rate housing. (Her 2nd answer is part of a series of "true or false" questions. She says it's "false" that market-rate housing prevents gentrification in low-income neighborhoods.)
New Court of Appeal holding: "Supply & demand is real."
No, this is not an Onion headline.
It's a real case rejecting left-NIMBY argument that state housing law is unconstitutional unless narrowly tailored to promote BMR, not market-rate, housing.
Whoa, the NEPA provisions tucked into the new "Clean Electricity & Transmission Acceleration Act" are like a wish list for greenmailers.
There's lots of good in the bill (⤵️), but the NEPA stuff is stunning. Come take a look.
🧵. 1/14.
This week
@RepMikeLevin
and I introduced the Clean Electricity Transmission Acceleration Act (CETAA) to debottleneck clean energy deployment and fundamentally re-think US energy policy with 74 (!) original cosponsors. Here's why we're so excited about it. Thread:
Must read
@SFjkdineen
story on SF's "inclusionary housing" program for middle-income households.
It's yielding mass vacancy rather than housed middle-income families.
Why? B/c of panoply of death-by-good-intention allocation & pricing rules.
🧵/12.
If you made "San Francisco affordable within a year" by fixing the for-sale price of all housing at (say) $100/sqft and the for-rent price at $500/bedroom/month, what rules would you establish to allocate the stock of privately owned & now-universally-affordable housing?
The court's reasoning is devastating ammunition for racist white homeowners who would leverage CEQA to keep poor people and minorities out of their neighborhoods.
/9
A 🧵 on why (I think) AB 1633 is a game changer for CEQA and housing.
tl;dr: formerly discretionary "exemptions" are now mandatory, and the political economy of exemption-making is itself about to be remade.
1/17
LA's draft housing element just dropped. It's an exemplar, a huge deal not only for LA but for cities across California.
LA is the first city to realistically assess development potential under current zoning, and the results are stunning. 1/18
City Planning and
@HCIDLA
have just released a draft plan titled “The Plan to House LA” that aims to accommodate nearly 500,000 housing units over the next eight years, with over 200,000 of those units reserved for lower-income residents.
Read more at
@California_HCD
's review of San Francisco's draft 8-year housing plan has dropped.
tl;dr: It looks like America's second most expensive city is going to spend the next 8 years in de facto land-use receivership, courtesy of state law. 1/17
🧵 It's been said for decades that SF's city charter creates a right to Discretionary Review of any permit.
I was curious, so I poked around. Turns out, "Charter DR" is a basically a fiction, invented by city attorneys in the 1970s.
1/
Beverly Hills homeowners hoping for kitchen/bathroom remodel in their Christmas stocking got this lump of coal instead.
J. Kin has enjoined city from issuing any building permit *unless* project adds units or bedrooms--until city adopts a compliant housing element.
🧵New paper! "Folks Economics and the Persistence of Political Opposition to New Housing," w/
@ClaytonNall
&
@stan_okl
.
We find that nearly all renters & >50% of homeowners say they want future home prices & rents in their city to be lower...
1/17
🧵I'm gobsmacked. The City of L.A. just lost *another* CEQA infill exemption case in Court of Appeal, w/ court relying on infamous UC Berkeley "social noise == pollution" precedent.
1/9
🧵 New CA Court of Appeal decision is going to make it harder for cities to issue CEQA infill exemptions.
Fortunately, there's an easy fix--but will
@GavinNewsom
tell
@samassefa
(OPR) and
@WadeCrowfoot
(Nat Res. Agency) to do it?
1/17
This is the most plausible ***and the most exciting*** "fix downtown SF" idea thus far, in both its small and its large variations.
small: house 10k-20k+ UC Berkeley students in office-to-dorm conversions
big: build the 10th UC, in downtown SF
Do it!
Whoa! New court decision holds (in effect) that state law requires L.A. to approve 60-unit apartment bldg on site zoned for 1 single-family home.
This decision threatens decades of municipal practice. How will Legislature respond? A 🧵. 1/25
Hmm, let's think this one (⬇️) through. If you were standing in shoes of
@GavinNewsom
,
@AGRobBonta
&
@California_HCD
, why might you pick San Francisco for "first-ever Housing Policy & Practice review"? 1/x
A 🧵 on what I'd like to see on the housing front from California & other blue-state policymakers in the New Year.
In two words: relentless pragmatism.
What would this mean in practice? Read on.
1/25
The Assembly has concurred, unanimously. AB 1633 is headed to
@GavinNewsom
's desk!
This is a truly momentous achievement by
@PhilTing
. Here's why. 🧵.
1/25
An incredible and historic moment I’m honored to witness. AB 1633, which curtains bad faith project denials, passed the Senate and is almost to the Governor. Everyone please give an INCREDIBLY big thank you to our champions today Asm
@PhilTing
and Sen
@Scott_Wiener
. WOW!
If CA wants housing for the masses, it needs to drive impact fees, "inclusionary zoning" & parking minimums down to zero.
And even then we probably won't get it with this housing typology.
Not w/o a building code overhaul or revolution in bldg tech.
/end
🧵What is "CEQA sprawl," and is there a way to stop it?
tl,dr: It's the transmogrification of an enviro review statute into a NIMBY stop-everything (even education!) statute.
One way to fix it is w/ private right of action against legally excessive CEQA review. 1/16
Another day, another CEQA attack on urban densification & reduced car usage.
(This one says San Diego didn't adequately study "environmental" impacts of lowering parking minimums near transit.)
Looks like Spokane, WA and Sacramento, CA are fast becoming the leading prohousing cities in blue states.
This is roughly what one would expect per either of two political science theories of the housing shortage.
1/4
Must pile on:
Spokane's new middle housing rules are the best I've ever seen (sorry Portland).
Simple and permissive.
For example: on a 5k sf lot, their lowest density zone will allow a 4-story building with FAR ~2 and no limit on unit count.
Would love to hear what state legislators are hearing when word gets around that a lucky few thousand Californians earning $200k/year got six-figure down payments from the state, risk free, no interest owed.
🧵This
@SFNext
podcast w/ SF supervisor Hillary Ronen is revelatory.
Through emotion, examples & a theory of change, she conveys how SF-style progressivism has utterly failed as a mode of city governance. (And also--I think--why it's failed.)
1/
Policymakers seeking solutions for the outlandish court decision capping UC Berkeley enrollment ought to focus on the many ways in which it was quite ordinary.
It's the ordinary parts that reveal the bankruptcy of CEQA. 🧵 1/11
Why UC dilly-dallied about the stay is beyond me, but it's hard to imagine a better set of facts on which to ask the CA supreme court to corral "CEQA sprawl" (here, the characterization of a speculative socioeconomic impact as an impact on the physical environment). 1/2
CA builder's remedy news:
@California_HCD
has found La Canada-Flintridge in violation of HAA for refusing to process a builder's remedy project application.
I think this is first official statement by a state agency that a city has violated HAA with respect to a BR project.
1/6
Supervisor
@myrnamelgar
says she voted no because the district rep didn't negotiate a deal between the developer and a locally powerful nonprofit, TODCO.
I'm sorry, failing to buy a nonprofit's support doesn't count as an "environmental impact" under CEQA. /3
SF Mayor
@LondonBreed
is rightly furious about the Bd of Supes' thwarting of desperately needed housing.
It's time to play hardball. The Mayor's got a big bat. It's called a "housing element." Here's a thread on how to swing it. 1/n
Last night the Board of Supes rejected a project with 500 new homes to replace a parking lot.
It met the criteria for approval and it would have created 100+ new affordable homes.
If you're wondering how we got into our housing crisis, this is how.
The similarities b/t this NEPA "immigrants are pollution" case (decided last August by a very Trumpy judge) and the tentative opinion in the CEQA "students are pollution" case (issued by an all-Democrat CA court) are pretty striking... 1/9
This is awful, and something similar is happening on the federal side RE: NEPA and immigration.
See Massachusetts Coalition for Immigration Reform (MCIR) et al, vs. Department of Homeland Security et al.
People are pollution now.
Nice to have this Builder's Remedy project rendering in advance of tomorrow's SF planning commission meeting to adopt the housing element. Follow state law, or else!
My latest column: Scott Pluta’s proposal to build a few apartments in his Castro side-yard was rejected by San Francisco officials. Now he’s proposing a much taller building — and if the “builder’s remedy” goes into effect, the city might have to say yes.
CEQA should be construed for consistency with the state's policy to affirmatively further fair housing, rather than to invite statistical arguments about demographics and behavior.
Friends & judges: CEQA is an environmental protection statute, not a social control law! /17
The authors find that 100 new market-rate homes in expensive urban core --> 25-29 newly available homes in bottom-quintile places.
It's as if each new market-rate homes comes with a "25% low-income" inclusionary requirement built in. 2/2
🧵This is bonkers. CA Coastal Commission is opposing a state Density Bonus Law project in downtown Santa Cruz not b/c of eroding bluffs or blocked views, but b/c project doesn't have enough BMR units to satisfy CCC's tastes.
1/4
E.g., using the court's statistical-associations logic, white homeowners could argue that CEQA requires affordable housing developers to analyze & mitigate putative "gun violence impacts" from any lower-income housing project in an affluent neighborhood. /10
On basis of that study,
@sfplanning
says that w/ current permitting process, impacts fees, exactions, & construction costs, the *only* kind of project that's economically feasible is a 24+ story high-rise in city's highest-demand neighborhoods. /19
The mastermind behind the SF supes' CEQA-laundered denial of a 500-home infill project at 469 Stevenson St. finally weighs in. And puts the city in an even deeper legal hole. 1/14
🧵More CA Builder's Remedy news:
New "TA" letter from
@California_HCD
to Beverly Hills interprets HAA as eliminating cities' authority to apply zoning to 20% BMR projects if city's housing element lacks sufficient sites to accommodate housing target.
This is a big deal.
1/7
🧵CA Court of Appeal has issued final opinion in notorious "students are pollution" Berkeley CEQA case.
The opinion fixes one of the two big problems w/ tentative opinion, but not the other. Legislation needed!
1/23
I have long piece on CEQA reform in Sunday's
@sfchronicle
(it's online now).
My first draft tried to make an epistemic point about difficulty of knowing how big a problem CEQA is. It didn't make the final cut, so this 🧵 explains it. 1/15
While the the rest of the world prizes bright 18 year olds seeking university degrees, a CA judge labels them pollutants and orders UC Berkeley to cap enrollment.
Amazing that the day after
@California_HCD
started investigating the CEQA-laundered denial of 500 new homes at 469 Stevenson St, the Supervisors who explained their votes to
@hknightsf
didn't even bother to dress them up in CEQA fig leaves. 1/
Here's a bizarre example of mission creep, courtesy of CA Coastal Commission.
A business in coastal zone that wants to convert off-street parking space to other uses must:
- provide free transit passes to employees
- adopt on-premises "VMT reduction" measures
1/2
Thanks to AB 2097, the Coastal Commission yesterday reversed course & will allow San Diego businesses to convert off-street parking to dining or bike parking w/o requiring replacement car parking. But . . . (1/2)
Will this prove to be greatest NIMBY own-goal in history?
Redondo Beach *would* be in compliance w/state housing element law & thus allowed to deny this builder's remedy megaproject (⬇️), except a local NIMBY ballot measure apparently requires voter approval of HE.
1/2
Leo Pustilnikov told me his massive proposed 2,300-unit One Redondo megaproject will be the state's biggest affordable housing project at the moment.
Local officials hate it but an obscure provision of state law might force them to approve it anyway
Builder's Remedy comes to Santa Barbara.
SFH ➡️ 25 studio apartments.
To my knowledge, this is first BR project that provides 100% moderate-income rather than 20% low-income units.
Student housing crisis, solved?
@housingdefense
@Yimby_Law
Do I have this right: money TODCO gets in ongoing project-based subsidies tracks market rent?
So business model is: spend $ blocking housing -> rents ↗️ -> collect $$ from feds -> spend fed $$ blocking housing -> rents ↗️↗️ -> collect $$$ from feds? 1/2
This means that even if the city jerks around developer with years of CEQA studies--and in the meantime adopts a compliant housing element--the city cannot later deny the project on ground that city had a compliant HE *at the time of denial.* /2
This use of demographic statistical associations as the basis for a conclusion about CEQA impacts is, as best I can tell, unprecedented.
(The CEQA cases about noise impacts cited by the court involve noise from the activity for which the project sponsor sought a...
/7
Cal Supreme Court's decision not to intervene in Berkeley CEQA debacle should be a win for CEQA reformers, in two ways. One way's obvious, the other not. 1/15
Just an insane decision. And note that this lawsuit is being brought under the California Environmental Quality Act, though everyone, on all sides, knows the issues here aren't environmental.
So please, stop telling me how CEQA has already been fixed.
This 🧵 from a leading state assembly candidate is so San Francisco: propose a symbolic law that’s certain to be struck down as unconstitutional. Pretend it will actually solve problems. It’s the progressive analog of banning CRT.
There is a reason we don’t have Medicare for All, a Green New Deal or a true Living Wage.
The billionaires and corporations keep buying our elections. We need bold ideas to break the stranglehold of unlimited corporate money – and here is mine.
New builder's remedy decision!
LA Sup Ct. has released tentative opinion in 600 Foothill v. La Cañada Flintridge. Oral argument is happening now.
Looks like a huge win for
@housingdefense
,
@AGRobBonta
and
@California_HCD
!
🧵/12.
Nice that the full page "anti-gentrification" attack on
#SB9
and
#SB10
in today's
@nytimes
slips its mask at the end. These bills may "destabilize home values for everyone."
If only housing could be made more affordable w/o changing its price!
Rather, if city was out of compliance when developer filed the preliminary application, the game is up: the city's zoning code and general plan cannot be applied to deny the project or render affordable units "infeasible." /3
#1
funny-weird phone call of the year, just received:
"A developer just proposed a MASSIVE builder's remedy project on MY STREET. I'm calling b/c I found your paper about builder's remedy published in 2020. How could my city council not have known about this CATASTROPHE!?!?"
Suggestion: If you or someone you know has done housing development in SF, please support state's investigation by submitting detailed, first-person accounts of delays & expected or unexpected cost-elevating demands that the city or third parties... 1/2
HCD will conduct a first-ever Housing Policy and Practice Review of San Francisco, aimed at identifying and removing barriers to approval and construction of new housing there.
What this means in the 🧵 👇🏾 1/
Ugh, another hit piece on AB 1633 from the "no building anything w/o my NGO's permission" crowd.
Not sure I should deign to reply, but seeing as how
@GavinNewsom
hasn't signed it yet, here goes.
🧵 1/9.
Maybe b/c...
1. SF has for 20+ years acknowledged its own noncompliance with state Permit Streamlining Act, while doing nothing to fix it.
2. SF's last housing element called discretionary review a big problem & since then supes have done nothing but thwart...
The court dropped a "tentative opinion," in advance of oral argument, that makes new CEQA law in two areas: (1) "impacts" due to demographics of new residents; (2) "gentrification impacts" of projects that locally increase the demand for housing. /2
My oped in today's
@sfchronicle
is about using the state-mandated housing element update to remove "Discretionary Review" from San Francisco's city charter. 1/n
must analyze & mitigate student noise impacts on residential neighborhoods (due to higher university enrollment & student-housing development).
UC Berkeley responded that "noise impacts from human socializing" are not CEQA impacts, and, in any event, are "speculative." /4
I’m a huge supporter of strong preservation for the rural coast (one Sea Ranch is more than enough), but it’s high time we treat the urban coast as…urban.
It’s appalling that the CA coastal commission & “environmentalists” stand with suburban NIMBYs again this.
I am increasingly of the opinion that the environmentalist movement's opposition to modernizing environmental laws for climate change and the housing crisis is an existential issue for Californians. This week I am extremely worried this problem can't be solved. 🧵
🧵The other shoe drops: we now have first lawsuit challenging denial of a Builder's Remedy project in CA. Filed against City of La Canada Flintridge.
1/9
🧵New decision from Judge Chalfant of LA Superior Court is first to address CA builder's remedy & current standards for housing-element compliance. On the whole, it's very good.
1/18
I disagree. The court decided nothing except that "exactions" imposed by a legislative body can, in principle, be challenged as unconstitutional takings.
All the meaty questions were left for another day.
In a shocking 9-0 decision, the US Supreme Court this morning ended California's post-Prop-13 era of insanely high fees on housing development. Now it's up to housing advocates to remake fee law in their own image.
5. SF is economic heart of most productive region in the state & has good transit to boot. Housing growth in SF has more econ & enviro bang per unit than housing growth anywhere else in state.
tl;dr: Even under incredibly optimistic assumptions about site conditions, ***rents are not high enough*** in Bay Area, LA, or Sac for these projects to pencil.
Even if builder pays just market-rate wages.
Even if IZ rate is zero.
Even if site is vacant & clean.
2/3
But something has gone badly wrong if the best that mainstream enviro leadership can offer on an important infill housing bill is a promise not to oppose it.
This at a time when 1/3 of all housing is getting built in the WUI, when wildfire is rampant & getting worse,
/22
But the enviros! They're not guarding lucre like the trades. They're speaking for the public interest, or claim to be.
Yet in practice, they're either so cowed by NIMBYs in their ranks or so ideologically wedded to costly proceduralism that they're incapable of... /20
NEW:
@SashaZbrozek
told me Monday his almost certainly wasn't the only builder's remedy application submitted so far in the Bay Area. He was right: Enter Forrest Linebarger, who has so far proposed some 170 units on the Peninsula using the provision. More:
The court says that homeless people cause (or are?) an environmental problem, and that bringing more students to Berkeley increases demand for housing and may displace existing residents, driving some into homelessness.
Ergo, an EIR for a long-range student enrollment... /19
San Francisco has posted its doozy of a draft response to warning letter from
@GavinNewsom
's new housing accountability team.
(Is city's mission to bridge the partisan divide by proving itself a laughingstock to
@nytimes
& Fox News alike?)
1/n
Big moment is at hand for the California Assembly: will a majority vote to close CEQA's "infinite delay" loophole, at least for dense infill housing on environmentally friendly sites?
Today, housing supporters & I will urge the Assembly to pass my bill,
#AB1633
, which helps prevent neighbors & jurisdictions from abusing
#CEQA
to delay or block projects. We need more residences built to ease our housing crisis. Watch here at 11:30am:
For those who wonder whether CA cities actually permit housing *on the sites they say are good for it,* check out my new report w/
@sidkap_
@s_damerdji
&
@elpaavo
.
Our findings cast doubt on basic premises of California's planning-for-housing law. 1/12
⬇️ This is THE most important applied research in the CA housing policy space.
It should be mandatory reading for state housing officials & city planners alike. 1/8
Using the Terner Housing Policy Dashboard—a new tool available soon to policymakers & planning staff—we simulate the impacts of six prohousing policy scenarios on new housing supply.
@TernerLabs
Learn more:
It's raining CEQA at First District Court of Appeal.
This one, unpublished, sustains superior court's imposition of $500,000 bond on Livermore anti-housing activists who fought an affordable infill project using CEQA claims that the court called "utterly w/o merit." 1/5
New superior court decision holds that California's SB 9 (duplex and lot-split bill) unconstitutionally infringes on charter cities' "home rule" authority.
It's a weird, narrow decision that turns on a lawyerly sleight of hand. I don't think it will hold up on appeal.🧵/15