Edward Stringer🇺🇦 @edwardstrngr Twitter profile

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

2 years

Is 'The West' at war with Russia? Ask two questions: Has The West firmly stated that it is politically opposed to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and wishes to see it fail? Is it in the interest of future West European security to see Russia be defeated in Ukraine? 1/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Some thoughts on the air war over Ukraine and its implications for air forces in general. I caveat all by stating that we don't know very much about UKR tactics, and if we did we wouldn't want to be too descriptive. But we can pick out some essential observations. 1/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

But in the meantime UKR's ability to prosecute the war successfully relies on it being able to use the air when and how it wants. We need to do listen to them telling us what they now need, and make sure they have plenty of it in order to prevail. 11/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

So I conclude that NATO air forces should humbly approach @KpsZSU and offer to share a mission exploitation exercise to find out what worked, what didn't and why. NATO air power has become very good at one thing. It should think on what UKR's Air Generals might teach them. 10/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

A few thoughts triggered by the prevalence of heuristics - instinctive, learned responses - especially w.r.t. assumptions of mass and might. Principally the enduring assumption that Russia has latent capital reserves of mass it can 'liquidise' into combat power. 1/15

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

1 year

“The issue for Ukraine, is that ATACMS would probably be the more valuable addition right now.” ⁦ @PhillipsPOBrien ⁩ surely right that longer range precision attack will do more to degrade Russia’s forces in Ukraine - especially now as Winter bites.

Ukraine needs more than tanks

Both tanks and missiles are needed for the quickest possible Ukrainian victory in the war, yet Nato is far from providing missiles yet.

www.spectator.co.uk

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

The first point is that in the eighth week of this war the Russian Air Force (VKS) still shows no sign of running a campaign to gain air superiority. Given the advantages it has in the 'physical component' of air combat power this is truly remarkable. So it probably cannot. 2/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

In the space created UKR has learnt to use modern, novel tactics of drones and loitering munitions to act as 'poor mans air superiority'. This is not, yet, in the NATO air forces play book. And I would hazard a guess that NATO army/air force coord is not as good. 9/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

...because the UKR armed forces are clearly leading in the 'conceptual component' of air combat power. They have worked out how to take a massive inferiority in numbers and turn that around by fighting smarter. There are lessons here in Air C2 for all air forces. 4/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

1 year

“We have constrained Ukraine to fight in a way we would not, and accept casualties that we would not.” Apologies for the paywall. @FT

F-16s might not win Ukraine’s war, but they promise a more equal fight

The aircraft will restore an edge to Kyiv’s forces and push Moscow’s pilots back into Russia

www.ft.com

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

And that means that the Russian army cannot discount air attack at any time, and UKR can plan to make use of the air environment. This could prove to be the factor that tips the balance in effective overall combat power, and it arises... 3/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

But my overall conclusion has not changed. There is no room for complacency, but a well-sustained UKR can prevail and defeat the invasion of its territory. It is in everyone's interests that it does, and the US has just put down a big bet. 15/15

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

What they seem to have done is used intelligence to selectively attack Russian air raids. These appear to have been relatively effective in kill ratios - but the UKR 'air force' has also achieved many kills from MANPADS missiles, and even artillery shelling airfields. 7/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Few senior Western airman have had to work out from scratch how to use air power capabilities in less favourable circumstances to achieve campaign aims. In contrast, @KpsZSU has had to think around the problem. 6/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Or Bayrakter TB2 v RUS SAMs. This implies good coordination between Air and Land air defence assets. Which RUS has not achieved. Together, this UKR air defence system has achieved a huge 'soft kill' in deterring VKS raids; rarely now do they cross the FLOT. 8/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Ukraine will be writing the book on Strategic Comms that everyone else will have to follow. How many subliminal suggestions - of a genuinely strategic nature - are covered in these few, witty words? Ones that draw on and amplify fact.

Defense of Ukraine

@DefenceU

2 years

In the past week, the #UAarmy received thousands of tons of ammunition as a gift from the Armed Forces of 🇷🇺 Please note that we do not accept gifts from murderers, torturers, looters, or rapists. In the coming days, we will return everything, right down to the last shell.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Even, perhaps especially, the dominant ones of high-tech NATO. These have got used to rolling out air dominance since Gulf War 1. Maybe they will always be able to. But repeating a well worn tactical process - albeit a complicated one - has replaced 'Air Generalship'. 5/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

“If France, Germany or U.S. sent the same share per capita, Ukraine is already liberated,”

WSJ News Exclusive | Ukraine Quietly Receives Tanks From Czech Republic to Support War Effort

The move marks the first time a foreign country has provided tanks to Ukraine.

www.wsj.com

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

“The paradox of President Biden’s response in Ukraine is that he has been too casual with words like “genocide,”… …while he’s also too hesitant to offer the lethal weapons Ukrainians need to win.”

Opinion | Arming for the Next Fight in Ukraine

As Putin plans a new offensive, Kyiv needs heavier U.S. weapons.

www.wsj.com

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Russia assumes ‘General Winter’ always comes to its rescue - though Finnish success in ‘39 should have disabused them of that. The next step for the West, in its continuing support, is to ensure that the General works for Ukraine over the coming seasons.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

1 year

This has genuinely shocked me.

Kiwi shoe polish to disappear as UK no longer cares about shiny shoes

The former family staple is being withdrawn by its manufacturer as so many people are now working from home or wearing trainers

www.telegraph.co.uk

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Russia is caught between needing a lightning offensive campaign to achieve a bold victory, and not being able or capable enough to risk its remaining force in such a move. It has neither the assumed mass of the East nor the skill of the West. 9/15

Michael Kofman

@KofmanMichael

2 years

I try not to make too many predictions. I think given all the problems in the Russian campaign, delusional assumptions, an unworkable concept of operations, little prepared for a sustained war like this, I give it ~3 more weeks before this is an exhausted force. 1/

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Which is why the Biden administrations announcement of $33Bn is so significant. It has bought time for UKR to work out what its modern CONOPs and theory of victory looks like, as long as it can contain current RUS pressure. 12/15

Eliot A Cohen

@EliotACohen

2 years

Having criticized the tempo and scale of the administration’s commitment to military support of Ukraine I want to cheer President Biden’s $33b commitment, including $20b in military aid. We are doing the right thing, and just in the nick of time. 1/3

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

So when you see maps with dramatic, pincing arrows suggesting RUS' next move, think on what each of those easy to draw symbols means in all-arms manoeuvre, logistic support, and then holding the territory taken. 10/15

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

UKR must work out how much ground it is willing to trade while writing down RUS through attrition. Some assess UKR now has more tanks. But it needs more long-range artillery, and a CONOPs for going on the offensive eventually with smaller numbers. 11/15

Ukraine now has more tanks on the battlefield than Russia

Kyiv’s arsenal boosted by Soviet-era T-72 tanks from European Nato allies – and they could prove crucial on the flat terrain of the Donbas

www.telegraph.co.uk

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

My own experience makes me sceptical that he & it can. 5Eyes Generals will admit only the US Army can train effectively at Corps or Army level - and it is complicated, hard, and needs repeated exercising to master. Mark Hertling gives a flavour: 5/15

Mark Hertling

@MarkHertling

2 years

A few folks suggested I've been "bold" in some of my predictions accompanying the analysis I've provided on @CNN regarding this conflict. Beyond tactical assessments, there are 2 primary reasons I've said Ukraine would win this fight. Here's a short 🧵 on why I say this. 1/17

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

It is increasingly difficult to see Russia being able to mobilise a large reserve much within a year. So its troops in the Donbas are what it has. (There are lessons here for general assumptions on generating mass: if even Russia cannot...) 3/15

Phillips P. OBrien

@PhillipsPOBrien

2 years

This is a point worth examining. We have lots of stress on what if Russia goes for societal mobilization now (normally by the way by those who argued that Russia would conquer Ukraine quickly). However, societal mobilization is not easy under the best of conditions.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

This is so simple and so telling…

Margo Gontar 🔱

@MargoGontar

2 years

February 24. Ukrainians are googling how to make Molotov cocktail. September 21. Russians are googling how to leave the country and how to get out of the army. That’s the difference.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 months

“The consequences of a partial or complete defeat would be calamitous…But we have a lazy habit in the comfortable West — away from Europe’s front line in east and south Ukraine — of wishful thinking and being unprepared for bad surprises.” Quite. ⁦

The Times & The Sunday Times

News and opinion from The Times & The Sunday Times

www.thetimes.co.uk

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Two things remain. The threat of nuclear weapons should retain its awe. But proper statecraft can manage this as long as NATO does not get directly involved, ie the escalation remains sub-strategic. See @LawDavF below: 13/15

Escalators and Quagmires

9A Russian ballistic nuclear missile roles through Red Square during rehearsals for the 2018 Military Victory Parade (Photo by Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images) It is an unfortunate feature of wars that...

samf.substack.com

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

And that decades old, corrupt & bankrupt RUS military culture is not going to change overnight. Yes, the Darwinian instinct will teach the BTGs how to be less vulnerable, but don't expect great flourishes of manouevre warfare. 7/15

Jomini of the West

@JominiW

2 years

1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 58-64. The past week has seen Russian forces initiate an integrated offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line & Severodonetsk Salient. Assaults resume against the Azovstal Metallurgical Zone; UKR forces execute several spoiling attacks. #WarinUkriane

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

And then there is the logistics. Fast armoured warfare relies on equal dash from the loggies. We just don't see it. And every mile further into UKR territory is another vulnerability from extension, and exposure to a hostile pop'n. 8/15

Senior Defense Official Holds a Background Briefing, April 28, 2022

Senior defense officials held a briefing.

www.defense.gov

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Most estimates place >80K RUS troops in BTGs against >40K UKR in good defensive positions. This is not a good ratio for any attacking force - even with firepower. But can it 'fight like its doctrine' under its new, centralised commander: Dvornikov? 4/15

Russia’s New Top Commander in Ukraine Is ‘Willing to Sell His Soul’

A veteran of Russia’s brutal campaign in Syria, Aleksandr Dvornikov will have his work cut out for him as Moscow doubles down in eastern Ukraine.

foreignpolicy.com

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

And where would the EU be in such circumstances, lead by a Germany that insisted on austerity for the poorer nations in 2008, but which will not take any commercial hit itself to preserve the physical security of smaller EU nations now? 18/22

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

11 months

Worth requoting: “we are asking Ukraine to fight in a way that we would not, and to take casualties that we would not.”

F-16s might not win Ukraine’s war, but they promise a more equal fight

The aircraft will restore an edge to Kyiv’s forces and push Moscow’s pilots back into Russia

www.ft.com

Phillips P. OBrien

@PhillipsPOBrien

11 months

Would like to say that this was entirely predictable--and Zaluzhny is exactly right. Ukraine was armed for a frontal assault dominated operations (lots of APCs and Tanks). It only got greater range (storm shadows) quite late in the days and is still operating with old aircraft

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

The FT published a 'long read' that demonstrates such thinking, citing "western officials" who reveal that Russia will get its act together militarily when it fights "as they were trained to fight". This is a heuristic response. So can Russia do that? 2/15

The battle for Donbas: ‘the real test of this war’

Russian forces have shifted their attention to the east of Ukraine with many predicting a brutal and bloody onslaught

www.ft.com

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Previously I asked whether we were seeing a split between 'Old' and 'New' Europe in their approach to Russia. Recent events in the Donbas allow us to view that through the lens of strategic 'staying power'. 1/22

Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

The difference in approach between ‘new’ and ‘old’ Europe is developing into a fault line. North and Eastern Europeans have a clear-eyed view on confronting Russia - the Centre/South still seem in thrall to old nostrums. Probably with the usual results…

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Some thoughts aired on Sky News. In sum, Ukraine’s military superiority - in leadership and in national morale - was clear some time ago. With better weapons that has now been revealed on the battlefield. Kleptocratic Russia shows no signs of being able to adapt and cope.

Sky News

@SkyNews

2 years

"The west should think very strongly now about what the world looks like post-Putin." Air Marshal Edward Stringer talks to Sky News about how long he sees the war in Ukraine continuing. Latest: 📺 Sky 501, Freeview 233 and YouTube

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

And to best do that NATO must ensure it does not get directly involved, where a route to an existential rationale for RUS is easier to draw. Our rhetoric on these two points needs to be careful and deliberate. 14/15

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

I can understand the moral case for committing to push Russia out of all Ukraine, implying also Crimea, but do have concerns. A 🧵1/

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

This good analysis by @PhillipsPOBrien suggests that Ukraine is not ceding the initiative in the Donbas. I offer that it is quite possible that the Battle of Donbas will unfold more like the Battle of Britain than the Kursk more usually predicted... 1/11

Phillips P. OBrien

@PhillipsPOBrien

2 years

Ukrainian counterattack and how it will basically choke off any large Russian offensive in the Donbas unless the Russians move very quickly to regain road access to the front. See map next tweet.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Also, Dvornikov will need to build a C2 apparatus for his new, huge, command. How will he fuse the previous regional C2? Will he take the southern command and expand it to sit above, or build anew? How will he train the staff for it? 6/15

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Putin has thrown a stun grenade - it is important not to be frozen or disorientated by it. The facts on the ground haven't changed, but the politics have just ramped up several levels given the overt threat now made. World leaders, currently at UNGA, now have to step up too.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

1 year

“Vladimir Putin managed to conjure a minor 2.1 per cent contraction in Russia’s economy last year against the double digits that we were expecting. The bizarre thing is that we believed him!” Wars are fundamentally economic contests…

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Every campaign I have been involved in has had moments where Churchill’s “keep buggering on” has applied. Behind the apparent tactical stalemate one side is winning strategically. What has to happen to place Ukraine in that winning position…

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

6 months

This, by Gen Richard (👇) is right. Nor can our defence ministries and treasuries claim that no one knew. Alongside Richard’s take, and that of many others, here was my analysis from July ‘22. It’s not too late, but someone needs to show some strategic imagination.…

BLYSKAVKA

@blyskavka_ua

6 months

⚡️"Don't tell me that you can't afford to mobilize your industry and will so that Ukraine wins." Retired British general Sir Richard Barrons addressed European officials and opinion leaders at a forum in Lucerne, Switzerland. “You imagine an economy of 15 trillion euros a…

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

So I argue for The West to come together in a more deliberately unified manner, as it has when defeating all previous tyrannies. We should soberly work out just what Ukraine needs to prevail, and keep providing it until it does. Time to do it is running out. 11/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

1 year

For those who worry about Russian escalation - few have the innate sense of what that might mean, or would suffer the consequences, more than Estonia. Estonia’s strategic thinking on this is, therefore, exemplary.

Kaja Kallas

@kajakallas

1 year

The government decided today to send #Estonia 's biggest aid package of heavy weapons so far to #Ukraine . This takes our total military aid to Ukraine over 1% of our GDP. The package includes howitzers, grenade launchers and ammunition - what Ukraine has asked us for. 1/

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

The ever impressive PM of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, receiving the Grotius Prize and explaining with great clarity what is at stake for global peace, security and good order in Ukraine.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Serendipitous, given last night’s conversation… The West must break the Black Sea blockade.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

1 year

This is a challenge to German ideas of leadership in Europe.

Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹

@GLandsbergis

1 year

We, 🇱🇹 🇱🇻🇪🇪 Foreign Ministers, call on Germany to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine now. This is needed to stop Russian aggression, help Ukraine and restore peace in Europe quickly. Germany as the leading European power has special responsibility in this regard.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

No one involved in this piece by @CarnegieEndow can have spent much time in Stockholm or Helsinki reviewing SWE and FIN readiness and/or military know-how. Already valuable contributors to the U.K. lead Joint Exped’ Force, they will be superb NATO stalwarts.

Carnegie Endowment

@CarnegieEndow

2 years

Bringing Sweden and Finland into NATO could offer real advantages, but they need to be ready to share the burdens and make the sacrifices that NATO membership entails—not just enjoy the benefits it brings. @CChivvis explains:

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

6 months

This fear has held Ukraine back, and we risk losing an opportunity that will ultimately benefit Russians too.

Ben Hodges

@general_ben

6 months

The West should not fear Ukraine defeating Russia. This is an historic opportunity to improve security for the entire Eurasian land mass, if we can think/act decisively.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

@FeelingAntsy @ThreshedThought @WarintheFuture @MarkHertling @RUSI_org @TheStudyofWar What you are seeing now in Ukraine are not drone ‘swarms’ in the sense of their being smart and self-coordinated. Those will be truly game-changing. What you are seeing now are Iranian versions of the V1.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

3 months

In which I argue that any increase in UK defence capacity should first be in depth, in our defence industrial base and our capacity to make munitions. This will help Ukraine now and underpin effective deterrence in the future.

Conscription is not the answer for Britain to get its military in order

The army chief is arguing for more troops, without a corresponding acceleration of the UK industrial base

www.ft.com

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

3 months

“It would be a monumental error for the West to lose its nerve now.” This is a very useful piece of economic analysis.

Russia is losing the economic war: the West must not lose its nerve now

Despite a whiff of 1938 defeatism in Munich, nobody should be fooled by Putin’s fantasies

www.telegraph.co.uk

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

1 year

One could add: drip-feeding just enough kit to stop Ukraine losing but not enough to prevail is to prolong the war and the list of Ukrainian casualties. There are serious interests and values at stake.

Zbigniew Rau

@RauZbigniew

1 year

Arming Ukraine in order to repel the Russian aggression is not some kind of decision-making exercise. Ukrainian blood is shed for real. This is the price of hesitation over Leopard deliveries. We need action, now.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

“Ukraine is able to move Western arms through the country because of the success of its air defenses in deterring Russian warplanes from operating over most Ukrainian-controlled territory.” Latest in the series of excellent reports from ⁦ @yarotrof ⁩

Ukrainian Forces Hold the Line in Donbas as Western Heavy Weapons Join the Battle

More than three weeks after the massive Russian offensive that aims to encircle Ukraine’s best forces in Donbas kicked off, Moscow’s achievements so far are limited at best.

www.wsj.com

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

1 year

Worth repeating: Combined Air Operations are hard and take a lifetime’s practice to master. NATO makes it look relatively easy. This is why Russia cannot use its large air forces in a synchronised manner to gain air superiority over @KpsZSU

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

1 year

The @DefenceHQ has a rolling ten year plan to build a future force. That force is designed to defeat the ‘acute military threat’ of Russia. Russia’s military could be defeated now in, and by, Ukraine - with a sliver of help. We continue to prioritise the ten year plan.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

3 years

My 83 yr old mother has now discovered the ‘burner phone’ as a way round Twitter’s banning her three times... Strangely proud of this silver-surfing techno-geriatreek.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

RUS is no superpower. The only thing that can save it is if Western nations fold severally in return for cheap gas. If RUS is allowed to take some of UKR and hold the rest hostage it remains a threat to us all - esp small states. We will all be spending fortunes on Defence. 16/22

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

So my conclusions have not altered since I pinned my Tweet of 1 April. The West is intimately involved in the confrontation in Ukraine. If Ukraine negotiates terms from a position of military strength then Russia is shown to be the middling power it has become. 20/22

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

1 year

Two thoughts: Sadly, but predictably, ten UK tanks were never going to influence another states position. Why only ten; ‘punching above our weight’? Germany’s strategic culture too often prevents it punching at its weight.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

As I have argued previously, this thinking is the default response from those who confuse warfare with war - and so immediately calculate 3:1 ratios for conventional assault. UKR does not appear to be working on such a predictable strategy.

Times Radio

@TimesRadio

2 years

"The military commanders have got to advise, Look, Mr. President, we have done as much as we can, but we really can’t throw the Russians out." Lord Richard Dannatt tells #TimesRadio that President Zelensky should ‘start negotiating’ as ‘Russia is not going to lose.’

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

If this becomes a trend…

Shashank Joshi

@shashj

2 years

“India has halted negotiations with Russia [for] 10 Kamov Ka-31 airborne early warning helicopters for $520mn, following uncertainties in arms supplies amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. [It] indefinitely suspended the negotiations with Rosoboronexoort &…Russian Helicopters”

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

6 months

It is the cod-insightful construct of choice one’s hearing a lot: “there are no ‘wunderwaffe’ that will swing it, so why send [insert weapon of choice here]”. Well no; but no waffe at all won’t work, and some waffe are more wunderbar than others. It’s really an excuse for delay.

MAKS 23 🇺🇦👀

@Maks_NAFO_FELLA

6 months

🇩🇪 German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that the issue of transferring Taurus missiles to Ukraine is not urgent, since these missiles “will not change the rules of the game” in the Russian war against Ukraine.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

The West needs to become that supporting wartime economy to bolster all three fighting components. From intelligence provision, through an enhanced national logistics effort, to warstocks and fuel. The West can provide the war-winning 'tail' that keeps the 'teeth' sharp. 6/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

1 month

The ‘belief’ that you can limit a war that the participants see as existential to a bit of a regional, military punch-up is just that: a product of a belief system not a rational strategic appreciation. And if you reveal you can so dupe yourself, your enemy will have a field day.

Phillips P. OBrien

@PhillipsPOBrien

1 month

The greatest miscalculation the US made was thinking it could limit the war to Ukraine by depriving Ukraine of systems of long range. It only delayed the inevitable, has lengthened the war and meant that the US has lost influence. Its made things worse on all levels

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

SWE, FIN, POL, LAT, LIT are equally determined in supporting UKR. They combine both a realistic strategic net assessment of what they are actually witnessing with an absolute moral clarity over what is acceptable in international relations. 9/22

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

My judgement is that the Baltic and Scandi nations have assessed Russia correctly. The supporting EU coalition can help Ukraine prevail; but it will require unity, a sense of long-term purpose and some sacrifice - sacrifice in its own interests. 15/22

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

6 months

“Mr Speaker, the defence of the UK starts in Ukraine.” Hard to argue with that… @JohnHealey_MP

John Healey MP

@JohnHealey_MP

6 months

Labour has been deeply proud of UK leadership on military aid to Ukraine, and I want to say the same in six months time. But there are real fears that UK leadership on Ukraine is flagging. We must not step back. Britain must stand with Ukraine as long as it takes to win.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

The Donbas might look more like Burma in WWII than the Eastern Front. It would require an agile 'manouevrist approach'. But all the indications are that UKR has just that imaginative, integrated mindset from its president down. And Russia does not. 11/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Isaiah Berlin's famous essay on the Hedgehog and the Fox might provide a way to look at the benefits of SWE and FIN in NATO. In Defence terms they are Hedgehogs and know one big thing - coping with Russia. The foxes such as US/UK are more generalist. 1/11

The Hedgehog and the Fox - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

9 months

A good day for reflection for those non-Ukrainians who have had the luxury of liberty for so long it can seem to be a birthright. It isn’t, and the Ukrainians are suffering to fight an imperial invader who would remove liberty from our continent.

Oleksii Reznikov

@oleksiireznikov

9 months

Today, Ukraine is celebrating Independence Day, the most important day of the year for all Ukrainians. Now more than ever we recognize that Ukraine's independence is the inevitable outcome of the struggle of many generations who fought for our freedom. And in our time, the duty…

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

9 months

One cannot say that the case wasn’t made. And in many quarters.

David Frum

@davidfrum

9 months

If they'd been given the airpower they needed last fall, the would not be fighting from trenches this summer.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

This, clearly, is good. But it is not churlish to question whether there is a coordinated programme across Western nations to ramp up associated production to sustain such aid over time. That demonstration of strategic intent would undermine Putin’s narrative of Western ennui.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III

@SecDef

2 years

We just announced our single largest Ukrainian 🇺🇦 security assistance package to date. $1 Billion worth of ammunition, weapons, and equipment — the types of which the Ukrainian people are using so effectively to defend their country.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

The root cause of these procurement failures is the outdated Army model of command that sees it rooted in an instinctive character trait - if you have ‘it’ you can command anything. What’s so hard about running a major procurement programme anyway?

Inside Britain's £5.5 billion military disaster

The Ajax tank was meant to revolutionise modern warfare – but after a succession of setbacks, is it now destined for the scrap heap?

www.telegraph.co.uk

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 months

Just back from 10 days in Ukraine. Ukrainian resilience and resourcefulness are inspirational. But I sense a bit of a dialogue of the deaf with Western officials. Both could learn from each other in crafting a way that allows Ukraine to defeat Russia’s sadistic invasion. #Ukraine

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Those neighbouring countries with an understanding at least as visceral as cerebral treat Russia very differently. Witness Kallas' clear-eyed take on what is at stake for us all. Her (EST) assessment is based on current evidence and recent experience. 8/22

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Russia is clearly regrouping for a war of attrition in the Donbas. We do not have long to reinforce Ukraine to be able to defeat this next thrust. It would be a mistake to take ephemeral, romanticised comfort from 'plucky little Ukraine's' success to date. 9/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

And that will leave Europe securer, and better placed to deal with an ever more assertive China. If Russia prevails the very opposite happens. A lot is at stake; and time, as ever in war, is a vital commodity. 8/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 months

The really worrying part of this excellent (French) analysis is that our leaders lack the true strategist’s appreciation of the importance of time. Getting everywhere just too late is a very expensive route to failure.

Europe is at last adjusting to the new reality in Ukraine

The failure of Kyiv’s counteroffensive has led to a reckoning in western capitals

www.ft.com

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

I suggest the answer to both questions is yes: whether Russia emerges victorious or defeated will define the European security architecture for decades, and so have a material bearing on everyone's security and prosperity - including Russia's. 2/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

If Europe really wants to win this confrontation - and set strategic conditions that address two long term threats - it would combine on a ‘Manhattan Project’ to accelerate energy transition.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

3 years

Great letter in today’s Times:

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

My posts have long said that we mustn't be seduced by 'plucky little Ukraine' tales. It needs every help to capitalise on its inherent strengths. If it gets it, despite tactical setbacks in Donbas, it can defeat Russia's invasion aims. 12/22

Ben Hodges

@general_ben

2 years

We've got to stick together through the next few weeks of very tough fighting and occasional Russian tactical successes. Continue pushing to Ukraine what they need and what we've promised. Russians will culminate by end of August. Now is the time for real resolve.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

That is why UKR has been successful: its moral, conceptual and physical components have cohered valiantly - Russia's have fallen apart. But to prevail UKR needs to keep it up. Its GDP is approximately a tenth that of RUS. RUS makes weapons. UKR could be ground down. 5/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

I wonder what the war games tell us about the feasibility of getting grain out of Ukraine in bulk. There seem many benefits to this.

Lesia Vasylenko

@lesiavasylenko

2 years

Over 70 cargo ships are blocked in the Black Sea by #Russia . That’s 90 mln tons of agricultural produce intended for Africa and Asia. #Ukraine loses USD 170 mln a day because of the blockade and the world loses a reliable food supplier

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

With 'might is right' legitimised by the very G7 nations charged with defending the 'rules based order' many other Taiwans emerge. Western resolve will have failed its first major post-Cold War test. 17/22

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

1 year

So if, for example, Turkey had annexed huge chunks of Greece, would @yanisvaroufakis have graciously accepted giving away much of that chunk for abstract ideals of avoiding conflict?

Yanis Varoufakis

@yanisvaroufakis

1 year

There is no doubt that Ukraine has the right to fight off an invading army. What I find sickening is Western spectators cheering on an endless bloodbath along slowly moving trenches out of which only death, devastation and losers will emerge. When will civilised people stand up…

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Looking at the strained Xi, Putin relationship revealed in Samarkand, it looks as if this question is still relevant…

Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Can’t help but wonder why the genuinely powerful one would hitch itself so publicly to the one who is punchy in public but doesn’t have that much in the locker… Cui bono? Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

6 months

@stephenpollard I went to observe the march today. I saw a bunch of fellow travellers behaving, mostly, peacefully enough for the @metpoliceuk to turn a blind eye. I assess that about half the continuous chants were “free Palestine”, about a third “from the river to the sea”. Few were about a…

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Paraphrasing again @PhillipsPOBrien 'Wars are not won because battles are won, battles won indicate who is winning the war'. Wars are won because socioeconomies are mobilised, 'theories of winning' are valid across the polity, nations are united and prevail. 4/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

Buoyed now by high commodity prices, RUS economy will eventually be eroded by sanctions. Its economy is circa Spain's, its demography is awful, it makes nothing beyond rentier returns on a mono-crop economy. Now its military is revealed as weak. 14/22

The Woman Steering Russia’s War Economy (Published 2022)

Elvira Nabiullina got another five-year term as head of Russia’s central bank after quelling the initial market panic over the invasion of Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

If it does, then the Ukrainians have every chance of denying Russia victory while writing down its armed forces. Perhaps even defeating Russia in Ukraine. That will allow it to negotiate the end of the war from a position of great strength. 7/11

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

7 months

A point I have been making since the war started: if you think backing Ukraine is expensive now, try funding the defence of NATO frontiers if Russia is allowed to win, and then comprehensively rearms on the back of its success.

Garry Kasparov

@Kasparov63

7 months

This is the argument I made in 2014. The price of stopping a dictator always goes up. Yet many who said it was too dangerous and expensive to stop Putin in 2014 are saying it again now, when the costs in blood and treasure have skyrocketed since and will again.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

I disagree @GerardAraud In this context: 1 Russia does not have the actual might that some, steeped more in history, believe. 2. The battlefield reveals who has the real power - moral power and its ability to mobilise your own nation and your allies counts.

Gérard Araud

@GerardAraud

2 years

Emotional take. Thousands of years of history show that in a war, being right or wrong is irrelevant. Might matters. You don’t mediate between moral entities but between powers. The outcome of the negotiation ultimately depends on the battlefield.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

2 years

And behind its creeping success in Donbas there is evidence that RUS is running out of combat power. And we do not know what is being discussed in quiet corners of the Kremlin as the longer term implications of RUS' strategic position gradually dawn. 13/22

The Russian army is running out of options

So much had been written about the Russian armed forces’ modernisation and improvement over the last decade that that it was widely believed that the Russians possessed one of the largest and most...

www.spectator.co.uk

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

9 months

Very true @PhillipsPOBrien I am continually surprised at the number of folk - including, recently, Sarkozy - advising Ukraine in the abstract when the specifics, if related to themselves, would be unconscionable.

Phillips P. OBrien

@PhillipsPOBrien

9 months

Anon US officials telling the Ukrainians to be 'less risk averse' is so depressing. Ukraine has suffered more casualties in the last year and a half than the USA has suffered in all wars since the end of the Korean War--out of a much smaller population. UKR is not risk averse.

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Edward Stringer🇺🇦

@edwardstrngr

1 year

I would have added to the clip below, given another minute, that beyond questions of tanks and F16s, the real ‘game-changer’ was the weekend announcement that the US is investing in capacity to increase 155mm shell production from 15K to 90K per month.

Ukraine War: Why won't the US send fighter jets?

Former Air Marshal Edward Stringer explains why the US won't be sending F-16 fighter jets to support the war efforts in Ukraine.Read more: https://trib.al/QT...

www.youtube.com

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