Mike Martin 🔶 @ThreshedThought Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Mike Martin 🔶

@ThreshedThought

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Prospective @libdems MP for Tunbridge Wells; Former Army Officer & Author; Senior Visiting Fellow @warstudies . Promoted by TWLD, 8A Chapel Place, TN1 1YQ.

Tunbridge Wells

https://t.co/BOlJxHEXhC

Joined April 2011

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@ThreshedThought

Mike Martin 🔶

@ThreshedThought

18 hours

I’m incredibly proud my friends and colleagues in the Tunbridge Wells Lib Dems. We have majority control of Tunbridge Wells Borough Council with 22/39 seats. Our vote share was 8% ahead of the Tories and Labour are dust. 💪Roll on the General Election💪

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@ThreshedThought

Mike Martin 🔶

@ThreshedThought

2 years

Russian SIMs roaming in Ukraine. Gives you a good idea of the concentration of their forces.

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2 years

We’re reaching a bit of a tipping point in the Ukraine War. A thread.

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2 years

I think there is something very interesting happening.

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2 years

The Battle is Donbas seems to have started. But it’s the Ukrainians who have started it.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

It looks like the last few days have been the most consequential of the Ukraine War. A brief thread, updated during the day.

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2 years

These Russian mass graves and executions are going to change things. Watch for a shift in western policy now.

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2 years

I think we are seeing the beginning of the end of the Russia war in Ukraine. A thread.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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1 year

The Ukrainians have taken Kherson. What now? A map-based explainer.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

Time for a little update thread on Ukraine. We are at a very interesting point. A 🧵

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

I see this path as much more likely than a slow grinding war. ENDS

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Mike Martin 🔶

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9 months

Time for another brief update as to what has happened in the last two weeks in Ukraine.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

It’s also really unclear what putin’s political objectives are for this war. And as the west learnt over the last two decades, deploying military force without clearly understanding the political aims is stupid and leads to failure.

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2 years

Finally - what I’ve also noticed is that there are a lot less Russian bots attacking me on Twitter. One assumes they’ve all been drafted? ENDS

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2 years

And the longer the Ukrainians can hold on, the less the Russians will be able to continue. Amateurs talk tactics and professionals talk logistics.

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2 years

Ok Lyman looks like the old bait and switch. Drive flanks north and east of Lyman causing the Russians to reinforce this critical railroad junction (1). Then drive a much bigger encircling movement to trap the whole lot (2).

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1 year

It seems like the Russians really have ballsed up their withdrawal

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2 years

Time for an update on the Battle for Donbas A thread.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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1 year

There’s been a few developments in Ukraine over the run up to Xmas. Three things to watch, I’d say.

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2 years

So, if skilful, the Ukrainians should focus on creating this fear and panic amongst the Russian forces—that way they are likely to engender complete collapse amongst them. This is the best way to achieve their strategic goal of removing the Russians from their territory.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

I would be watching Kherson very closely over the next ten days. I think we might be about to see another Russian ‘goodwill’ gesture as they pull out of Kherson 😂 ENDS

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

Over the last week or so, we have seen Russian forces begin to culminate in the east and the south of Ukraine. That is: they’ve moved from the offensive to the defensive (conversely, the Ukrainians have moved from the defensive to the offensive).

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

But it seems that the Russians are a bit surprised that the Ukrainians have fought back. And fought back well.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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9 months

I’ve been having a bit of a deep dive into the Ukrainian offensive. The main message is: KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON 💪

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

Ukrainian morale is high; its supplies are increasing (from the West); and they are on the offensive.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

Russian morale is low, and in some places collapsing; its supplies are becoming constrained (it has probably run out of precision munitions for instance); and sanctions will increasingly constrain its ability to make new weapons.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

Well, in broad terms, the longer the war goes on the better it gets for Ukraine rather than Russia.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

Two areas where this is very obvious: Kherson and Kharkiv. Kherson - where the Ukrainians have pushed the Russians back towards the city which, if it continues, will make the Ru planned annexation a bit difficult. …

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

Ok. Here is how the war ends, I think. A 🧵

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

Observers of this war will remember the Battle of Kyiv. There, the Ukrainians focussed extensively on disrupting Russian supply, then surrounding pockets of Russians and then liquidating them. This then eventually led to a rout of Russian forces north of Kyiv.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

… Kharkiv: The Ukr have almost pushed the Ru out of artillery range of the city. In one place they have even pushed the Russians back to within 2 or 3 kms of the international border.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

I swear the Ukrainians are proper sick at strategy. I want them on my side in any future wars.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

Time for an update on Ukraine.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

I also think that now we have seen a Russian culmination, we will also see increased Ukrainian boldness on the battlefield - encircling pockets, hitting command posts etc. And this is where it gets interesting.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

And perhaps most stark, Turkey’s Erdogan. Now he’s played a blinker during the war, balancing between the two sides to their own great advantage. But now Erdogan says that Crimea should go back to its rightful owners, the Ukrainians.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

So let’s try and take a trip into Putin’s mind.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

More significantly - this Ukr salient puts them in a position to cut one of the major supply lines running from Russia down to its forces in Izyum.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

We are seeing a Russian collapse in the South (2 below). They are going to end up with a much bigger encirclement that I thought originally. First came the drops, then a flood.

@ThreshedThought

Mike Martin 🔶

@ThreshedThought

2 years

Ok. Here is how the war ends, I think. A 🧵

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2 years

These sorts of activities can create fear, panic and collapse, if done well. And in many places the Russians look overextended. It’s very easy, for instance, to cut the coastal link up the Russians have created between Donbas and Crimea.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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1 year

Ukrainians have established a small bridgehead over Dnipro. Diversion number 1.

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2 years

Time for a little round up of the Ukraine situation. A thread (with some poorly drawn maps).

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

The Russians are taking casualties, which it seems they weren’t expecting. The Russian ministry of health had just effectively mobilised civilian doctors in Russia. One assumes to deal with the level of casualties being sustained.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

There seem to be quite a lot of reports that Russia is not getting as far ahead as it would have hoped in its invasion.

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2 years

You let the armoured columns pass and then destroy the log tail using stay behind parties armed with anti tank weapons, or using helicopters, whilst keeping them out of the cities

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2 years

Which takes me back to my original prediction: the russian armed forces will be defeated in Ukraine and Putin will be removed from power.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

Russian mobilisation. A thread

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

No wonder they have been so successfully targeted if that is their comms security. Just shockingly poor for a modern-day army to be that lax.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

(For those who don’t remember, Izyum is where the Russians have concentrated their forces in an attempt to join Kharkiv to Mariupol to encircle the Ukrainian forces in the East)

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

The Russians fled Izyum in what can only be described as a rout. The Ukrainians have just fought a brilliant piece of combined arms manœuvrer.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

We are starting to see the same thing happen here.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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3 years

Posted without comment

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

Time for a little update thread on Ukraine. A little bit of tactical, a little bit of strategic. And some QUALITY maps (as always).

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

But after what we’ve seen over the last 72 hours the collapse of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine doesn’t seem a long way away.

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2 years

(Incredibly stupid by the way that the Russians didn’t wipe out the Ukrainian Air Force before they started - a real sign of their hubris)

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

His army is slowly collapsing in Ukraine. The vultures are circulating at home. And he is internationally isolated.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

India’s Modi ticking Putin off - it’s 2022 and we don’t go to war to solve problems - was the gist

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Mike Martin 🔶

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11 months

Ok. Looks like we have a coup happening in Russia

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

It’s over for Putin.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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1 year

Oh my days … Vuhledar … Russia what are you doing? I mean I know the military had to prove itself after Wagner took Soledar … But you just lost a Brigade of specialist troops.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

This makes sense in the following way. Putin basically assumed that the Ukrainians would collapse so all they would have to do is a thunder run to Kyiv. Don’t worry about the logistics - we’ll sort that out once we’ve toppled their government.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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7 months

There’s been a fair bit of movement in Ukraine - here is a round up and summary of what it means for the strategic environment. 🖍️

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

So everyone has been paying attention to Russia and Ukraine recently. But, in my opinion, there is a bigger strategic play going on by Russia. More significant. More long term. A thread.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

Izyum has just been surrendered by the Russians. Details to follow.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

This defeat—and make no mistake, it was a military defeat—has had wide ranging echoes. Basically, everyone has realised that Russia is going to lose the war, and has started adjusting accordingly.

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2 years

UK Foreign Sec Liz Truss has stated that the UK strategic aim is to evict Russian forces from Ukraine (including Crimea, so back to pre-2014 borders). She also said it would take ten years but she’s wrong about that: Russian forces will collapse before that, and we’ll see a coup)

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2 years

Kharkiv and Kherson: A tale of two fronts A map-illustrated thread

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2 years

The Ukrainians are pushing east from Kharkiv which cuts the supply routes for Russian forces in Izyum.

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1 year

Anyway - what does this Ukr assault tell us? That Crimea is there strategic goal here. And the reason for that is that it is the strategic centre of gravity of Putin’s credibility. He got a massive boost from taking it in 2014. Losing it now could mean the end of him.

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2 years

China’s Xi clearly expressing enough displeasure in private for Putin to acknowledge in public that the Chinese had worries and concerns.

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2 years

Russian propagande machine turning against Putin: “Silence benefits irresponsible and unprofessional leaders, who are responsible for the special operation, but who are destroying themselves together with the country”

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2 years

It’s just a question of whether this wraps up this year or next.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

Ok. Ukr AF holding Izyum. Piles of Russian heavy equipment abandoned. At this rate with western AND Russian backing Ukraine will have the best armed forces in the world

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

The Russian armed forces have been demonstrated, again, to be utterly terrible.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

And to answer the normal question that I always get when I tweet, Putin won’t use nuclear weapons because he knows that if he does that will be the end of his time as President of Russia.

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

So we will see the Battle for Donbas culminate in maybe the next 2-4 weeks. Basically the Russians are gonna run out of troops, and the Ukrainians are going to counterattack.

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2 years

If you look at the soviet deep strike doctrine, this this attack appears to be based on, it is about fast moving columns advancing on different axes in order to QUICKLY encircle enemy forces. It’s about deep fires, and about having multiple echelons of troops

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2 years

Strategic outlook: Give it four weeks; we’ll see Donbas go in the other direction, then Crimea will start to come into play.

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2 years

We’ve seen this before in the battle for Kyiv. Russians push too far on unrealistic political goals and get their log tails cut.

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2 years

But if you’re the Ukrainians and you know that the Russians are gonna use some variant of deep strike doctrine what do you do?

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2 years

Donbas and Kherson: a tale of two fronts A thread (plus some GREAAAAAT maps)

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Mike Martin 🔶

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2 years

And so the Ukrainians are merrily cutting those supply lines

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2 years

So far the Russians seem to have committed about 50k forces or a third of what they have. So maybe there are more echelons coming, and maybe the Russians will still overwhelm Kyiv. Or maybe they won’t. It seems in the balance.

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2 years

So what now?

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1 year

Ukraine counteroffensive thread

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2 years

This is starting to move so fast now, that I’m gonna make a bold prediction for a war ending move frm Ukr. Blue arrows are current Ukrainian assaults. Black is what they need to do to isolate Kherson (hook via Melitopol) and cut the bridge connecting Crimea to R to isolate Crimea

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2 years

On the other hand, if the Ru do take the town, it allows Putin to say that they’ve taken one of the two oblasts that they are trying to ‘liberate’. Hardly a great showing for 30k casualties, international condemnation and sanctions, and Finland and Sweden joining NATO. ENDS

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2 years

The Kharkiv front collapsed, and the Russians still haven’t reestablished a viable front time. (They tried around the River Oskil, but the Ukrainians have crossed it in several places, and now bits of Luhansk have been liberated)

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2 years

So I would guess that a lot of the Russian casualties are the logistic elements that are following up.

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2 years

The Ukrainians have done the right thing here. They are dug in, and so artillery effects them less. And then they are withdrawing in good order, so that they can inflict maximum damage to the Russians. They are trading space for enemy troops. Exactly the right tactics.

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2 years

Russian units are now reportedly trying to relocate to the Donbas. Once they get there they have to contend with the loss of Izyum and Kupyansk - the two railway hubs for that side of the country.

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2 years

Donetsk Airport They’ll be in Vladivostok soon at this rate.

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2 years

One assumes this will be the greatest mass surrender for Russian forces since WW2.

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2 years

It also appears the Mariupol is going to fall over the same time period - 24/48 hours. But it’s done it’s job - it’s kept the Russians tied up enabling the Ukrainians to stage their counterattack. The defenders of Mariupol will be lauded forevermore in Ukraine.

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2 years

But as ever - this is all about Kherson. Watch over there too today - because Crimea is the Russian strategic centre of gravity and the Kherson pocket will need to collapse to make that happen.

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2 years

The Russians use rail for lots of their log and so this is very significant - the Russians will not be able to conduct offensive operations in the Donbas anymore until (if ever?) they reconfigure their logistics.

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2 years

Ha. Look at this. The Ukrainians are pushing NE the other side of Izyum too. Look out for Russian forces being surrounded in Izyum in next 24/48 hours.

@AggregateOsint

OSINT Aggregator

@AggregateOsint

2 years

#Izyum axis update. Ongoing #Ukrainian counter-attack has pushed back #Russian forces to west of Borova. Front lines shifting some but not stable right now.

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2 years

Reports are coming in that Kupyansk has fallen, and also, just now, early reports that Izyum has been abandoned with Russian troops fleeing.

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2 years

But it appears that the Russians have over stretched themselves over supply lines that they can’t defend.

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2 years

I’m gonna call this: I think the Russian armed forces are going to collapse, followed by Putin leaving power. I can’t say this for certain (obviously), but I think this is the eventuality.

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2 years

Hmm. Was not expecting this. Time for a ☕️

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Julia Davis

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2 years

Is that an off-ramp down there?

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2 years

Firstly, Putin has taken a lot of heat at home. All of the ultra-nationalist headbangers on Putin’s right flank have started to look around for people to blame. And they’ve all been calling for escalation.

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