Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture Twitter profile

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Mick Ryan, AM

9 days

Very humbled to see my book, War Transformed, being included in the U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Professional Reading Library @USNavyCNO

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

It is too early to ascertain the method of attack and the range of implications of this attack on the Kerch Bridge. It is certainly a punch in the face for Putin on his birthday. A couple of thoughts however in this short (for me) thread. 1/9 🧵

OSINTtechnical

@Osinttechnical

2 years

Closer look at the collapsed road span of the Crimean bridge

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

The battle of Kharkiv has been won by #Ukraine , with Russian forces withdrawing to the north & east. Today, analysis on what is next for Ukraine’s military as it exploits a faltering Russian eastern offensive. 1/25

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

10 months

Lots of recent discussion about the ‘slow’ Ukrainian offensives. What is actually occurring now is a steady, deliberate taking down of the Russian 'operational system'. This takes time. 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

The last 48 hours have seen some stunning battlefield developments in #Ukraine . Ukrainian operations in the northeast continue to exploit its penetration of Russian defences. 1/18 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Back in May, I examined Ukraine’s military strategy in a thread that I informally called ‘The Ukrainians are Masters of 21st Century War”. Today, an update on the Ukrainian approach - the "strategy of corrosion". 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

There is a lot going on in #Ukraine at the moment. The macro story is that Russia appears to have lost the initiative at every level. But there is also an interesting story to be told about Ukrainian campaign planning. 1/24

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Three days since the invasion began. In the past 24 hours, we have seen Russian advances in the north, south and east. Ground gained in the north has been particularly costly for Russian forces. My 3rd set of observations, noting the ongoing abundance of ambiguity. 1/24

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

The last 48 hours have seen quite a lot happening in #Ukraine . While the southern offensive continues, the Ukrainian operations around Kharkiv have achieved a significant penetration of Russian defences on the Kupiansk-Izium axis. What might this mean? 1/25

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

“Ukraine cannot be safe or rebuild its economy until Crimea is out of Russian hands.” The (strong) case for why #Ukraine must take back #Crimea - and why the West must help, from @Andriypzag at @ForeignAffairs

The Case for Taking Crimea

Why Ukraine can—and should—liberate the province.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Lots of reports currently about Ukrainian advances in #Kherson and #Luhansk . Few have been officially confirmed. However, we can draw a couple of things from these ongoing campaigns. 1/17 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

9/ I am sure we will learn more details in the coming hours and days. But this ‘smoking incident’ is sure to be linked to other events in Ukraine’s overall military strategy. A bad month for Russia just keeps getting worse. Good. End.

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Today’s speech by Putin is a milestone in the Russo-Ukraine War. It may be useful for Putin in a domestic politics sense. But, as has been the case throughout this war, it is terrible strategy for Russia. A thread on the implications of Putin’s latest ‘bold’ move. 1/25

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

A little over three weeks ago, I sat in a large conference room in Kyiv and listened to President Zelensky outline how his country, despite the heroic achievements of its armed forces and people, would need a continuing flow of military assistance from the west. 1/22 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

In the last 48 hours, reports have emerged of a potential Russian withdrawal from its Dnipro west bank defensive positions. While this may fit General Surovikin’s overall strategy for #Ukraine , it will be difficult to execute successfully. 1/24 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

7/ A third and final point: this is a massive influence operation win for Ukraine. Even if they didn’t do it, it is a demonstration to Russians, and the rest of the world, that Russia’s military cannot protect any of the provinces it recently annexed.

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

More details are emerging about the Ukrainian attack on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in occupied Crimea. Lots more clarity to come in the following days, but a few immediate observations are possible. 1/20 🧵 #Sevastopol

James Waterhouse

@JamWaterhouse

2 years

Unbelievable footage from one of the marine drones used in the attack on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. (Via Ukrainian journalist Andriy Tsaplienko) Full story:

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

The Ukrainian attack on Russian bases in Crimea in the past week has brought attention back to a war which many in the west have largely lost sight of. In this thread, an examination of the prospects for a Ukrainian victory. 1/18 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Another good image, courtesy of @DarthPutinKGB

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

President Zelensky of #Ukraine has just completed his historic and stirring speech to the US Congress. What were his key messages, and what might we take away from his address? A thread on my initial impressions. 1/24 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Leadership.

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Eleven days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. In the past 24 hours, we have seen limited Russian progress in the north and east, and another broken Russian ‘ceasefire’. Today - the war in the south, and why it matters. 1/25

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

“Even if there is no electricity, they will not extinguish the light and faith in ourselves.” @ZelenskyyUa speaking to US Congress

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

The Ukrainian southern campaign continues to play out. While their forces fix Russian defenders in the south west, the Ukrainians are advancing from the north. Some observations on the Kherson & Kharkiv offensives. 1/20 🧵

War Mapper

@War_Mapper

2 years

A timelapse of the development of Ukraine's counter-offensive in Kherson Oblast over the past 5 days.

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

10 months

The ripples from the Wagner mutiny in Russia over the weekend continue to propagate across the Russian systems. A quick assessment of the impact on Russia’s ‘fighting power’. 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

8/ And if we were impressed by the outflow of Russians after the recent naval aviation base attack, the rush to leave Crimea will be probably be even greater now. Lack of confidence in Putin and his military will grow.

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

It is 16 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Today I will examine the the importance of the adaptation battle in war, and how it is playing out in Ukraine. (Image - BBC)

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

The announcements in the past day of infantry fighting vehicles being sent to #Ukraine represent an increase in capability for Ukraine’s soldiers, and a change in mindset in the Western leaders. What does this mean for 2023? 1/25 🧵🇺🇦

U.S. and Germany will send armored combat vehicles to Ukraine

President Biden acknowledged that Bradley Fighting Vehicles are under consideration for delivery to Kyiv, as France pledged light tanks.

www.washingtonpost.com

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

11 months

It has been nearly three weeks since the initial ground combat phase of the Ukrainian 2023 offensives commenced. What is the state of the campaign? 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Give them what they need to finish the job. All our nations (including Australia) can and should send as much military assistance as possible for #Ukraine to put the Russian Army to the sword and eject it from all #Ukraine .

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

The speech from Putin today is a careful balancing act of a leader under pressure, who is trying to: 1. please hardliners and Russian milbloggers; 2. not displease the general populace; 3. appease the military; 4. give the impression he is not losing a war. 1/20 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

This week saw the failure of Russia’s President Putin to openly elicit military assistance from China for his special military operation. It could be a strategic turning point of the war, particularly as #Ukraine launches its offensives. 1/25

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

The Battle of #Bakhmut has now raged since August 2022. The massive human and material resources expended by Russians on this objective may soon necessitate a Ukrainian withdrawal. 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

I was going to do a thread today on the implications of Ukraine’s offensive around Kharkiv. Instead, I have pushed that to tomorrow in order to discuss the Russian river crossing operation over the Severskyi Donets this week in #Ukraine . 1/

Rob Lee

@RALee85

2 years

Ukraine’s 17th Tank Brigade reportedly targeted a Russian pontoon bridge crossing with several destroyed tanks and BMPs.

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

In the last day or so, a video showing Russian soldiers conducting a hideous and repulsive act against a defenceless Ukrainian prisoner of war has circulated. While I will not amplify this, I wanted to provide some thoughts. 1/15 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

Leadership.

Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦

@IAPonomarenko

1 year

Zelensky is in Kherson

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Day 19 of the Russian invasion of #Ukraine . Today I examine the implications of Russian personnel commitments and losses, and what this now means for their campaign. 1/25 (Image - @IAPonomarenko )

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

The situation with the Ukrainian #offensive in the south remains unclear. That said, we know enough about both sides - and from the history of such operations - to propose a few areas that are likely to determine success or failure in the coming weeks. 1/23 🧵 (Art: Rado Javor)

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Over the past few days, the Twittersphere has been expounding on the impact that several #HIMARS rocket artillery systems are having in #Ukraine . And they are awesome! But some perspective is required before expectations for their impact get too overblown. 1/17 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Four days since the invasion began. In the past 24 hours, we have seen limited Russian progress according to multiple sources. My 4th set of observations, noting the ongoing lack of clarity & abundance of ambiguity. 1/24

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

It nearly 6 months since the Russian invasion of #Ukraine began. Today, I explore Ukraine’s potential counteroffensive in the south, and the considerations for planning and conducting such a large-scale campaign. 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

The winter months approach in #Ukraine . It will have an impact on the war, but it won’t shut down the war as some have theorised. A thread on the likely impact of winter on the war in #Ukraine . 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

In the last few days, an interview given by the new Russian commander in #Ukraine , General Sergei Surovikin, was reported in the media. Noting that “the situation regarding the special operation is tense”, an assessment of his campaign options going forward is required. 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

4/ Second, the Ukrainians so far have been excellent at operational design and shaping operations in advance of their advances. This could be part of their design for taking back Crimea in the short term - or part of a deception operation to distract from other areas.

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

5/ Either way, it presents the Russians with a significant problem. It doesn’t stop resupply to Crimea (there are boats and the route through Melitopol), but it makes holding Melitopol even more important for the Russians. (Image: @TheStudyofWar )

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

6/ This would be the point in a class that the instructor would ask “so, what do we think the next operational objective for the Ukrainians might be?” Because of this, we may see Russian redeployments in the south, which will unveil other weaknesses & opportunities for #Ukraine .

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

24/ Ukraine, largely, has refused to fight how Russia wants to fight. It has developed & implemented its own military strategy with great discipline. What might other nations learn from the Ukrainian Armed Forces? In short – a lot. That is the topic of my next thread. End

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

In the past few hours, we have seen the Russian response to the attack on the Kerch bridge over the weekend. It has responded in two ways. First, a series of missile attacks against civilian targets across Ukraine. Second, command changes. 1/24 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

Recently, there has been much commentary about whether #Ukraine can - or should - seek to take back its Crimean territory through the force of arms. #Crimea remains Ukrainian territory, occupied by Russia since 2014. A thread on how all roads may lead to Crimea in 2023. 1/20 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

2/ First dropping a bridge span like this would take a lot of ‘bang’ (explosives) and good demolition design. As a sapper, we plan these kind of things all the time. The hardest bridges to drop are reinforced concrete like this. (Image: @RALee85 )

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

The last two weeks have answered a central question of the Russo-Ukraine War; can Ukraine undertake the offensives required to liberate their people & reoccupy their territory? They have answered this question emphatically with their Kharkiv offensive. 1/19

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

11 months

In a 1973 lecture Sir Michael Howard discussed surprise, noting “this is an aspect...which needs to be studied above all others in the Armed Forces: the capacity to adapt oneself to the utterly unpredictable, the entirely unknown. Today, another surprise. 1/25🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

For those who follow the provision of United States’ military assistance to Ukraine closely, over the past several months a new pattern in support has emerged. A key aspect of this new pattern is the provision of battlefield mobility capabilities. 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

10 months

A just and enduring peace is not possible until #Ukraine defeats Russian forces occupying its territory, ejects Russian forces and establishes the deterrent regime that ensures the long-term security of its territory and its people. 1/22🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

It is 18 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Today I explore initial lessons of the Russian military transformation program of the past decade against their military performance in #Ukraine . 1/25 (Image @UAWeapons )

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

We are now past the 100 day mark since Russian began its invasion of #Ukraine . Today, an examination why strategic patience is needed in our support for Ukraine to defeat the Russian invasion. 1/24

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Throughout the Russian invasion of #Ukraine , I have watched and written about Russian #strategy in the war. In this thread, given ongoing Ukrainian offensives, I examine whether Russia has ceded the initiative to Ukraine. 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

3/ The amount of explosive required would be more than a few SF personnel could carry. A few trucks, or missiles / bombs would do the trick, if aimed at the right points of the bridge span.

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

More than four months have passed since the beginning of the Russian invasion of #Ukraine . During the war, Russian and Ukrainian strategy has evolved. Today, an update on Russia’s #strategy in Ukraine. 1/22

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

One rarely gets to meet their heroes. But today I had the honour of meeting with @ZelenskyyUa in Kyiv. It was a privilege to discuss with him the defence of #Ukrakne , and the need for more western support. @SlawomirDebski @PISM_Poland

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Today, an examination of the Ukrainian strategy of 'corrosion', that - so far - has seen it successfully fend off a larger and (theoretically, at least) more powerful invader. 1/25

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

A month has passed since the beginning of the Russian invasion of #Ukraine . Today I will examine again how the Russian campaign continues to evolve, particularly in light of today’s briefing by Russian Colonel General Rudskoy. 1/25

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

23/ We will be studying this campaign for decades into the future. But for now, we need to ensure the west continues to provide the equipment and munitions for this campaign, and for those that will inevitably follow. End.

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Personal bucket list thing - if I ever get to travel to #Ukraine , one of the many, many, many heroes there I would love to meet is @IAPonomarenko . One day...

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

More information is emerging about the Russian withdrawal from West Bank of the Dniepr River in #Ukraine . This will have a range of impacts on the war. 1/25 🧵

WarTranslated (Dmitri)

@wartranslated

1 year

Moment Surovikin and Shoygu admit defeat in the Kherson direction and announce the withdrawal of troops.

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

“The Battle of Kherson is the most far-reaching Ukrainian success since the Battle of Kyiv. It is also the heaviest blow to Russian pride, morale, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s leadership throughout the war.” ⁦ @IAPonomarenko ⁩

How Russia's humiliating defeat in Kherson came to be

The Russian defeat in Kherson Oblast was almost inevitable — but it happened sooner than many expected. The Nov. 9 announcement on Russia’s “uneasy decision” to leave Kherson, voiced by General...

kyivindependent.com

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

“What nation serious about its security in the 21st century will want to partner with the Germans after this appalling deficit of leadership and strategic courage?” The Great Tank Debate, at Futura Doctrina

The Great Tank Debate

Providing advanced western main battle tanks to Ukraine

mickryan.substack.com

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

The uncertainty inherent in military operations is part of the enduring nature of war. It is impossible for a military institution to anticipate everything. Therefore, a key virtue for military organizations in war must be adaptability. Adaptation in #Ukraine - an update 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

In 1914-1915, a scandal erupted in England about the shortage of high explosive shells for the western front. There was a lag in industry expanding to satisfy the enormous consumption of munitions in the war. Something similar is occurring now with #Ukraine . 1/24

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

I have been asked how it felt to meet to @ZelenskyyUa . In truth, I felt tiny next to this giant of a leader, while at the same time immensely comfortable, reassured and grateful to be in the presence of someone who stepped forward to lead in the darkest of hours | @PISM_Poland

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

While the Russian Army’s offensive in the east continues, it is likely in the short term that they will reach the limit of their offensive capability. As such, today I explore what transitioning to a defensive strategy might mean for the Russians in Ukraine. 1/25

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Thirteen days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Today I examine reports that Russia has committed 100% of forces assembled before the invasion, including what it means for their campaign. War, among other things, is also about maths. 1/25 (Image - @ForeignPolicy )

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

In military operations, we often speak about ‘momentum’ and ‘seizing the initiative’. It is a term used in military publications, and heavily emphasised in #leadership & operations. Today, an examination of whether Russia is generating momentum in #Ukraine . 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

It is 66 days since the Russian invasion of #Ukraine began. Today I explore Ukraine’s options to respond to a faltering Russian offensive in the east. 1/25 (Image - @washingtonpost )

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

In military operations, we often speak about ‘seizing the initiative’. It is a term used in doctrinal publications, and heavily emphasised in leadership & operations. Today, an examination of whether there may be a pending shift in the initiative in #Ukraine . 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

It is 59 days since the Russian invasion of #Ukraine began. Today I will update my analysis of Russia’s shift to the east and examine the prospects for Russian success there. 1/25 (Image - @UAWeapons )

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

It is 42 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Today I examine Russia’s shift in emphasis to the east and analyse what its campaign might look like. Tomorrow I will follow this up with Ukraine’s options to respond. 1/25 (Image - @IAPonomarenko )

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

An updated thread on the wartime #leadership demonstrated by @ZelenskyyUa – with a focus on visiting troops in the field, particularly in the wake of the successful Kharkiv offensive. 1/10 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Two weeks since the Russian invasion of #Ukraine began. Today I will examine the discovery of ‘old truths’ about war, and how it has impacted on leadership in this particular conflict. 1/25

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Recently, I have written how Russia’s strategy for Ukraine is evolving (again), as well as the potential impacts of winter. Looking beyond the next few months, what might Russia’s options be for 2023, and what are the vulnerabilities Ukraine can attack? 1/24 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

Excellent!

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

As we seen the unfolding Ukrainian operations in southern Ukraine, it is worth pondering, what happens when Ukraine takes back the south? 1/21 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

Over the last 2 months, Russia has undertaken a series of thrusts in eastern #Ukraine to capture territory & weaken Ukraine’s armed forces. Soon, it will be the turn of the Ukrainians to resume their offensive operations. 1/20 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

In warfare, an important target is often the enemy commander and the headquarters that assists them to plan and execute military operations. A thread on #Gerasimov , failure and the coming Ukrainian offensives. 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

One year ago today, the forces of darkness crashed across the Ukrainian frontier to begin what they hoped was a ten-day offensive to destroy the Ukrainian nation and subjugate its people. But the people of Ukraine roared back. A thread on a year of war. 1/25 🧵🇺🇦

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

23/ In corroding the Russian military physically, morally, and intellectually, the Ukrainians have evolved the military art. This is what 21st century war looks like. The Ukrainians have proved to be masters of it.

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

Recently, I have been asked a lot of questions about the impact of winter on the war in #Ukraine . In some respects, this is pretty ironic; I was born & live on the flattest, dustiest & hottest continent imaginable. That said, a thread on the coming winter war in Ukraine. 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

In the wake of the Ukrainian victory in western #Kherson , and in the midst of Russia’s ongoing terror bombing campaign against Ukrainian civil infrastructure, we should look at the man in charge of Russia's campaign. A thread on General #Surovikin . 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

On a scale of 1 to 10, this is a 12 for vomit-inducing creepiness and cognitive dissonance from the Russians. @JuliaDavisNews deserves a medal for watching this and for providing us with these insights into Russia.

Julia Davis

@JuliaDavisNews

1 year

During Russia's New Year special on state TV, they openly addressed the West to say, "Like it or not, Russia is enlarging!" The rest of the clip should give you a general idea as to the mood in the studio.

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

It is 7 weeks since the Russian invasion of #Ukraine began. Today I examine how the Russians have fared in the ongoing adaptation battle, which is a feature in all wars. 1/25 (Image - @UAWeapons )

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

“Give Ukraine everything it needs to win now. ATACMs, armed drones, F-16s. Why drag it out when Putin is escalating all the time, slaughtering civilians? You cannot escalate in self-defense.” A superb thread on #Ukraine from @Kasparov63

Garry Kasparov

@Kasparov63

1 year

I would say Merkel is trying to rewrite history, but really it's that she refuses to apologize or admit error for years of empowering Putin, up to and including this war. 1/7

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

There is much in the war in #Ukraine we do not see. The struggle on the ground is dynamic, and the correlation of forces can be unclear. This makes predictions about the future trajectory of the war nearly impossible. 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

6/ An army that either explicitly (or implicitly) permits such behavior will never be capable of fighting as an effective and cohesive force. Wars still have rules. An army that operates with an ‘anything goes’ ethos is just not an army. It is an armed group of criminals.

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

11 months

In the past week, Ukrainian armed forces have come under a spotlight as analysts pore over reports to divine how the 2023 offensive is progressing. It is much too early for such strategic judgements. It is however timely to review the Russian response. 1/25 🧵

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

Week 4 of the Russian invasion of #Ukraine . Today I examine what culmination (current or pending) of Russian forces in Ukraine means. 1/25 (Image - @IAPonomarenko )

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

In the last 93 days, we have seen a constantly shifting operational environment, with both Ukrainian & Russian militaries experiencing tactical success and failures. This is very much the norm in warfare. Today, I explore the shifting tides of war in #Ukraine . 1/25

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

The horrific scenes from #Bucha reinforce the contents of this piece. ICC & others will investigate, but Russian commanders were negligent, ethically corrupt & criminal. Bucha shows the Russian Army is not ‘professional’ nor do they deserve the term ‘soldiers’. 1/14

Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

The authority to use lethal force also imposes a profound responsibility on members of the profession of arms. This is especially the case for commanders. Command Responsibility and the #Ukraine Conflict - a good piece from the Lieber Institute West Point

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

An important characteristic demonstrated by @ZelenskyyUa is his willingness to take personal risk to visit soldiers in the field, and get his own sense of how military operations are unfolding. 1/7 🧵 #Ukraine #leadership

Christopher Miller

@ChristopherJM

2 years

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made an unannounced visit to the frontline in Zaporizhzhia today, per his office and Telegram channel. He’s been getting out of Kyiv more recently. 📸 @APUkraine and Zelensky Telegram

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

1 year

“To be brutal…we need to see masses of Russians fleeing, deserting, shooting their officers, taken captive, or dead. The Russian defeat must be an unmistakably big, bloody shambles.” A fine essay on why Russia’s defeat matters from ⁦ @EliotACohen ⁩

It’s Not Enough for Ukraine to Win. Russia Has to Lose.

Anything less will encourage Russian imperialism and embolden autocrats around the world.

www.theatlantic.com

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

17/ But, #Ukraine now has the initiative in this war, as well as tactical and operational momentum going into winter. The war is not over, but perhaps the tide is finally turning. End.

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Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

5/ Ukraine is also sending the message to Russia, as well as Ukraine’s supporters in the west, that Ukraine is fighting against the Russian military and NOT the Russian people. This is important strategic messaging.

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