Mark Galeotti @MarkGaleotti Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@CouldntFade

@Alons0wo

@siya98934951

@dicemonstershop

@soffiiuu

@Janoffepie

@KenobiObi_Won

@teejay5501

@jo9xj6c

@qiaohuanxin

@TanjiroRokuten

@TS11aesthetic

@Qa1ke

@drg_cs

@Shamylaroy

@HarbZ

@usagi_ba

@flawio06

@PublishersWkly

@ZhengyangGeng

@Zannybabee

@LaRocaV

@TaibaB10

@WatotoAustralia

@salvadorpano

@TeamLearnToWin

@pixiii0

@jeune3arbia

@Tabichain

@byakko_iimori

@thealextaylor3

@BigGameBrent

@OfficialDPRPP

@rezahakbari

@_Miaakoo

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

Putin's decision to appoint Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov as new overall commander of Ukraine op is significant. A quick thread 1/

107

1K

5K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

Amazed to see how so many replying to my thread on Russian state propaganda, w 'oh, it's just the same in the UK/US/etc' Please, stop it. Whatever flaws there are in Western media pluralism, it cannot be compared to a state that viciously stamped out free media by fear + force

131

533

4K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

Rossiiskaya Gazeta, the Kremlin's 'newspaper of record,' is as stodgy as you might expect, but in light of the extraordinary Ukrainian successes in the past few days, it's instructive to see what it's telling Russians today (and what it's not). A short thread 1/

47

874

4K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

According to Kyiv, three assassination attempts on President #Zelensky have been foiled in the past week thanks to leaks from within #Russia ’s FSB. A thread. 1/

42

968

3K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

Obviously the Kremlin drone story is still very much a breaking one, but people should really stop talking about this as an attempted assassination attempts against Putin. That's just playing to Kremlin talking points 1/

71

542

3K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

6 months

When one German publisher was being lobbied to produce a translation of my WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN, he said it wasn’t needed because Seipel had “already written everything on Putin that needed to be written” and his work was “priceless” Turns out there was a price: €600k…

Michael Meyer-Resende

@meyer_resende

6 months

German journalist Hubert Seipel, who was celebrated as a #Russia expert, published #Putin biography, lambasted war hysteria in the West in ... January 2022. Turns out he got 600,000 EUR from people close to Kremlin. Offshore account, oligarchs involved? Naturally.

8

142

483

44

526

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

7 months

I continue to be delighted but surprised that the Kremlin lets @BBCSteveR stay in the country; he has a dangerously wonderful low-key way of highlighting official inanities, largely by asking the right questions and letting people speak...

Steve Rosenberg

@BBCSteveR

7 months

“Why have you come here?" "Good question. But I can’t answer it.” I spoke to Russians arriving at a patriotic concert on Red Square. It marked the anniversary of Russia proclaiming the annexation of 4 Ukrainian regions. Camera @AntonChicherov Producer @LizaShuvalova

787

2K

7K

84

334

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

But this illustrates some wider issues. 1) The Kremlin seems stunned, and has not yet come up with a plan as to how to try and spin this, so to a large extent the media are ignoring the bad news until they get a directive. No one wants to show initiative lest they get it wrong 6/

8

249

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

'At home and on the battlefield, seven self-inflicted traps are snaring Putin' My latest for @thetimes . As it's behind the paywall, a quick summary of the 'traps' 1/

At home and on the battlefield, seven self-inflicted traps are snaring Putin

Following the dramatic attack on the Crimea Bridge last weekend, Vladimir Putin was eager to wrench back the initiative. Since Monday Russia has hammered Ukrain

www.thetimes.co.uk

43

620

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 month

I'd hoped that this didn't need to be said: we can condemn the Kremlin's vicious war in Ukraine AND show compassion for civilians caught up in a terrorist massacre. Most people know this full well, but they aren't always the loudest on social media

66

321

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

In other words, demonstrating to the West that Russia is in this for the long haul, and hoping that we will lose the will and unity to continue to support Kyiv. (I think Putin will be disappointed, but he *has* to believe this - it's his only real shot at some kind of victory) 8/

14

152

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

So Zhirinovsky is dead. I can genuinely not think of a single positive things to say about him. It is not just that he was a ghastly person who espoused ghastly views, he was also one of the architects of Russia's debauched pseudo-democracy 1/

48

405

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

This desire to avoid the truth as long as possible is a very human one, alas, but especially prevalent in authoritarian regimes. But in due course - and esp as the official narrative becomes less and less credible - it does break over time. 11/

23

207

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

It's striking just how quickly Moscow's authority in Central Asia has collapsed. A thread, spinning off the claim by National Anti-Corruption Committee (NAC) Kirill Kabanov chair that "there is no respect for Russia in Central Asia" 1/

Глава НАК Кабанов: в Центральной Азии уважения к России нет

Председатель Национального антикоррупционного комитета (НАК) Кирилл Кабанов отметил, что Россия должна укреплять гуманитарное и политическое влияние в странах Центральной Азии

www.mk.ru

32

416

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

By placing the action at Sen'kove, on the Oskil River (which seems to have been taken already), it is admitting just how deeply the Ukrainians have already gone. Presumably, they are relying on readers imbibing the triumphalist tone and not digging into the detail. 5/

15

107

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

...both politically and also morally. I remember one parent of a vet from Afghanistan I interviewed for my PhD. She said "I didn't want to believe what people were saying about the war, because if I did, then I would either have to act or be a part of it." /10

11

156

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

But Putin doesn't necessarily understand this (remember: no military experience and a court full of sycophants) nor care. 4/

4

71

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

(Which is, incidentally, the same Soviet-style defensive thinking that is bedevilling the military, especially disastrous in a time of rapid and unpredictable change) 7/

6

92

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

For Gerasimov (who were were being assured was out of favour and about to be sacked... or who was Putin's right hand man...) it is a kind of demotion, or at least the most poisoned of chalices. It's now on him, and I suspect Putin has unrealistic expectations again 5/

8

105

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

2) The Kremlin is happy to lie, but can't just ignore realities, and so is really struggling to create any positive narratives on issues where some basic fact-checking is possible. This is the kind of dilemma we saw in Chechnya (x2) and the Sov war in Afghanistan, and... 8/

4

137

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

It has been pretty clear that there will be spring offensives - that's what the 150,000 mobiks not thrown into the fight are being held for. 150k fresh troops, however poor quality, will make a difference, but not, I suspect enough for Putin 6/

9

100

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

At the moment I don’t yet have an opinion on who killed #Dugina and am still reading up, but if an account describes #Dugin as having had great influence on the Kremlin or repeats that ridiculous 'Putin's Brain' tag, I’m less likely to take the analysis seriously…

93

258

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

Oh, and obligatory PS: NO, THERE IS NO GERASIMOV DOCTRINE! ;)

41

75

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

Russia is sliding back towards (aspects of) the 'wild 90s,' when murder was a business tactic, and the lines between politics, business, crime and war became near-meaningless. 14/end

33

153

2K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

Is it a demotion for former joint commander Surovikin? Implicitly, yes, of course - even if being framed simply as a response to the increased 'status' of the op. 2/

3

61

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

The evening TV 'shock jocks' will still rant, but they matter less than many believe. When even core state propagandists like RG are at a loss, despite their closeness to the administration, then this is a sign of political pressure, maybe even crisis. 12/end

27

102

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

There may well be some advances, but nothing decisive (and the Ukrainians themselves will be looking to a spring offensive). In many ways, I don't think Moscow's strategy hinges anyway on battlefield victory - it's more about politics 7/

5

70

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

(c) Putin doesn't understand/care about his officer corps. If you keep appointing, rotating, burning your (relative) stars, setting unrealistic expectations, arbitrarily demoting them, that's not going to win loyalty 12/

14

78

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

Moscow’s continued belief that the UK is its most subtle and enduring enemy is something I find touching and heartening.

MFA Russia 🇷🇺

@mfa_russia

2 years

💬 #Zakharova : London successfully exports its colonial methods. The methods of suppressing the Donbass were obviously taught by British instructors and political mentors. ❓We wonder if the Ukrainians understand that London uses them as a typical colonial cannon fodder?

563

345

1K

77

181

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

So what does this actually mean? (a) Confirmation, if we needed it, that there will be serious offensives coming, and that even Putin recognises that poor coordination has been an issue (though can even Gerasimov truly command Wagner + Kadyrovtsy?) 9/

5

86

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

What did Surovikin do wrong? Nothing, really (in context - this is not about his morality...). Yes, there were all kinds of reversals, including the recent Makiivka strike, but there is a limit to what one new commander can do in 3 months 3/

13

61

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

Here and now, I don't see that as a crucial issue, but as with the anger and demoralisation of the Rosgvardiya (because they feel they were used as cannonfodder), it's one of those issues which may bite Putin in a real crisis. 13/end

7

64

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

But even so, the propagandists can't help but trip themselves up. The account of how a Mi-35 gunship crew allegedly thwarted a Ukrainian river crossing might be comforting to the paper's readers...assuming they don't look at a map, because... 4/

10

83

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

...Tends to be a sign that the state's control over the narrative is cracking. It is not so much IMO that Russians up to now have necessarily *believed* the official line so much as that they have had no reason to both *disbelieving* it as that is dangerous... /9

5

97

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

10 months

About 1 million Soviets served in Afghanistan during a 10-year war, out of a pop of 285M: about 0.35% About 0.5 M Russians served/serving in Ukraine in 17 mo, out of 143M: about 0.35% A stark reminder of the scale of this war effort for Russia (+ the soc problems that will ensue)

50

259

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

(b) Gerasimov is hanging by a thread. I don't think this is intended to create a pretext to sack him as the war is too important and Putin can sack who he wants. But he needs some kind of win or a career ends in ignominy. This may well suggest some kinds of escalation 10/

5

66

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

For those rushing vaingloriously to package the lack of an invasion at 3am or 1am or whatever this morning as a great victory for deterrence and 'Putin blinked,' a few cautionary notes 1/

48

446

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

7 months

This. It was a Soviet-legacy hotbed of nationalists and communists, but when Yeltsin forcibly closed it down, he broke the constitution, and the West cheered him. We ignored the fundamental truth: if you want democracy you have to accept that sometimes the guys you don't like win

Paul Goode

@jpaulgoode

7 months

30 years ago, Russia's elected president and parliament both attempted to seize power. Yeltsin rolled out the tanks. A super-presidential constitution followed in December. Democrats abandoned Yeltsin, who turned to oligarchs for support and put Russia on the path to autocracy.

28

108

440

65

229

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

First, and most obvious, there's not even a hint of the Ukrainians' advance from Kharkov deep into Russian-held territory. Quite the opposite, instead there are tallies, drawn directly from MOD briefings, of alleged enemy losses (4000 KIA since 6 Sept) 2/

8

86

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

#Prigozhin of Wagner (in)fame and Girkin of #Strelkov nom de guerre, are at dagger’s drawn now, a feud beginning to seep into the media. A few observations 1/

17

258

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

10 months

All still pretty unclear as to Prigozhin's rebellion, but am struck by the uncompromising language in Putin's emergency address in which he denounces this as treason and a betrayal of the Fatherland 1/

Обращение к гражданам России

kremlin.ru

70

298

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

Not the nuclear option, but more mobilisation or, arguably more militarily logical but politically dangerous, also deploying conscripts. They are better trained and equipped than most mobiks! 11/

4

55

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

At the same time, again picking up a recent theme of Kremlin propaganda, much talk of 'foreign mercenaries' fighting on Kyiv's side, although of course they too are, Russians are told, being hammered 3/

3

65

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

Now that the FSB is claiming #Dugina was killed by a Ukrainian who fled to Estonia, it is interesting to note how often the Kremlin seems not to appreciate the dangers in trying to explain reverses away by, frankly, incompetence. A short thread 1/

51

341

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

Once a taxi driver, always a taxi driver

Tadeusz Giczan

@TadeuszGiczan

2 years

Putin personally stopped by to pick up Lukashenko before their today's meeting in St. Petersburg.

54

95

351

52

161

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

"The Ukrainian army is an amazing and very strong combination of a Russian soldier, a fascist officer and an American general" The convolutions hardline Russian commentators must go through to explain their failures in #UkraineRussianWar . A short thread 1/

58

298

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

A few observations on the human side of that Russian Security Council meeting, as Putin went full Blofeld on his people (how long before they are given numbers: 'You have failed me for the last time, Number Three'...) 1/

21

302

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

The Russian govt is very eager to squelch rumours of a 2nd wave of mobilisations, with good reason. A short threat 1/

18

200

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

Well, that's a shame: the Russian govt has just banned me from the country. I can take comfort in that they don't know whether to call me a 'leading journalist' or a 'political expert' (politolog). I still think of myself as a friend of #Russia the country

95

125

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

Prigozhin’s increasingly vitriolic war of words with the Russian MOD over ammo supplies suggests chickens are coming home to roost after he thought he was able to prosecute multiple vendettas 1/

18

126

1K

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

Now, I may be the wrong sort of doctor, but that sounds like a 'control shot' execution from a pistol. According to the same report, he is currently alive but unlikely to survive. I think we can safely describe this as a hit. 10/

5

36

983

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

What the #Dugin assassination tells us about #Russia My v snap take on #Dugina 's killing and Dugin's (lack of, kinda) importance for @SpecCoffeeHouse @spectator Expect the nationalists to be angry - and not just with Ukraine but also the Kremlin

What the Dugin assassination tells us about Russia

Darya Dugina, daughter of Alexander Dugin, has been assassinated by a car bomb in Moscow, Russia.

www.spectator.co.uk

49

352

966

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

7 months

The Majority Never Had It So Good Only just getting to read this fascinating @RussiaPost_tw piece on the impact of the war on Russia's 'provinces' and rural communities, and why it's not the nightmare some may presume. Depressing and thought-provoking

The Majority Never Had It So Good

This is Sergei Chernyshov’s first-hand account of life in provincial Russia, where people’s everyday experiences and mindset, including their view on the war in Ukraine, differ strongly from those of...

russiapost.info

81

325

970

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

Putin gave a pretty wide-ranging press conference in Astana, with some familiar old tunes but some interesting new notes. A short thread with my interpolations in [square brackets] 1/

27

177

943

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

Putin has just issued two presidential decrees on martial law, following an emergency meeting of the Security Council. A quick thread with some first thoughts about how this is in effect a declaration of variegated martial law across the whole of Russia 1/

20

335

946

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

Dear heavens. My belief/hope that Putin would keep away from the brink was shaken by Monday’s Security Council meeting and his subsequent speech, but now clear he is truly divorced from reality. This is a tragedy

45

147

897

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

Nikolai Patrushev, hawk’s hawk and a man I described as ‘the most dangerous man in Russia’ () has given an interview to govt newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta. A lengthy thread 1/

In Moscow's Shadows 6: The Most Dangerous Man in Russia - In Moscow's...

Who could be the most dangerous man in Russia? A president? An ideologue? A kleptocrat? A gangster? None of those, in my opinion...If anyone is interested in the Argumenty i Fakty article I mention,...

www.buzzsprout.com

41

426

899

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 months

“Start with yourself, Comrade Dugin” A broadside attack on Alexander Dugin appears in Moskovsky Komsomolets. A couple of quotes and thoughts... 1/

«Начните с себя, товарищ Дугин»: нашему обществу предложили деградацию вместо комфортного будущего

Вышла очередная программная статья А. Дугина, где он требует тотальную мобилизацию России. Возникает вопрос: для чего?

www.mk.ru

22

215

924

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

Mangushev wasn't just some Russian merc, but a political technologist/propagandist with a reputed connection to Wagner boss and all-round-Kremlin-businessthug Prigozhin, through the latter's media and consulting empires 2/

Кто такой Игорь Мангушев

Украина обратилась в ООН в связи с видео, на котором российский наемник Игорь Мангушев произносит речь со сцены, держа в руках, как он говорит, череп убитого украинца, защищавшего "Азовсталь" во...

www.currenttime.tv

2

53

866

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 months

Despite the intimidatory police presence, the increasing thuggery of the state, all the new CCTV cameras to record their faces, thousands of Muscovites come out to say their farewells to #Navalny in the largest grassroots demonstration for years. Says much about his stature

20

145

878

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

Polit system deliberately unstable, gave Putin scope to retain control through divide and rule. Doesn't work well when boss distracted or weakened. And he is, both. 9/END

14

81

836

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

So this could be a warning, or taking a pawn off the board, or a sign that Prigozhin's more thuggish rivals feel he is weakened enough that they can move. Either way, it demonstrates how, under the pressure of war (and Putin's apparent inability to control elite conflicts)... 13/

8

40

822

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

And now suddenly he has been shot in the head. In battle? "Doctors say that he was wounded as a result of a shot from a short-barreled gun at close range in the occipito-parietal region downwards at an angle of 45 degrees." 9/

Соратнику Пригожина Игорю Мангушеву выстрелили в голову с близкого расстояния

Как сообщил военный аналитик Борис Рожин, тяжелое ранение в голову получил, сотрудничавший с основателем ЧВК "Вагнер" Евгением Пригожиным владелец телеграм-канала «Записки авантюриста», капитан 4...

www.mk.ru

9

47

823

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

He wasn't in Wagner, but instead, operating with the callsign 'Bereg,' served as a captain in the 4th brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Army. However, all was not quite as it seemed

Соратнику Пригожина Игорю Мангушеву выстрелили в голову с близкого расстояния

Как сообщил военный аналитик Борис Рожин, тяжелое ранение в голову получил, сотрудничавший с основателем ЧВК "Вагнер" Евгением Пригожиным владелец телеграм-канала «Записки авантюриста», капитан 4...

www.mk.ru

3

38

803

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

A key problem with Macron's trip to China and comments is that - whatever his intention - they are interpreted in Moscow as signs of the impending fracture of the West, which only encourages digging in over Ukraine... 1/

27

192

791

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

Was this about him or a proxy attack on Prigozhin? Obviously at this stage, impossible to say. However, it is worth noting that Prigozhin may have somewhat over-extended himself of late. 11/

4

29

787

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

In many ways it is a reflection of the way Russian warfighting has become a public-private partnership that his unit, which seemed to be a specialist anti-drone one, was dogged with suggestions that it was privately funded/run even if formally army /4

“ВСУ се боят от нас”. Как воюва “подразделението на бъдещето”

/Поглед.инфо/ „Лудите влизат в окопите с пластмасови оръжия“, шегуват се военните за този малък отряд на армията на ЛНР. Основната задача на бойците е да ловят дронове. За това как го правят - в...

pogled.info

1

36

777

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

10 months

This is a particularly bad take, epitomising a dangerous kind of triumphalism that also does Ukraine no favours. A short thread 1/ Take away Russia’s nuclear weapons – for Putin is finished and his country may soon collapse

Take away Russia’s nuclear weapons – for Putin is finished and his country may soon collapse

The Soviet Union’s successors were never made to accept the fact of defeat. Whoever comes after Putin must be forced to demilitarise

www.telegraph.co.uk

81

168

793

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

The Nord Stream blasts are Putin's warning shot to the West I think he's trying to hint at what escalation options he still has… (if anything, I think it’s surprising it’s taken this long). For @SpecCoffeeHouse @spectator

The Nord Stream blasts are Putin's warning shot to the West

While the Ukrainians are fighting a conventional war on their own territory, Russia and the West are engaged in an unconventional one fought by economic pressure, political subterfuge and dirty...

www.spectator.co.uk

174

276

756

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

In between, he has been a political technologist/political hitman affiliated with Prigozhin's Patriot news network, especially targeting liberals like Lyubov Sobol, who was closely affiliated with Alexei Navalny 6/

Мангушев заявил об угрозе собственной безопасности со стороны «Новой газеты»

Любовь Соболь, тесно связанная со структурами блогера Алексея Навального, подала запрос в СК для привлечения к уголовной ответственности политтехнолога Игоря Мангушева. Поводом для этого стало...

realtribune.ru

1

37

729

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

Putin pretty much closed down his attacks on St P governor Beglov. Having watched Wagner burn through its zek-mercs in Wagner, the MOD now seems to be stepping in. The FSB, which for so long was happy to be on sidelines, may be getting fed up of him. 12/

4

24

730

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

Mangushev himself had apparently fought in the Donbas in the ENOT PMC in 2014 and consorted with local proxy-politicians and neo-Nazis 5/

Кто такой Игорь Мангушев, который выступил с черепом и назвал его "останками" защитника "Азовстали"

Украина обратилась в ООН в связи с видео, на котором российский наемник Игорь Мангушев произносит речь со сцены, держа в руках, как он говорит, череп убитого украинца, защищавшего "Азовсталь" во...

www.currenttime.tv

1

41

726

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

Overall, I was really struck not just by the toxic atmosphere, but also the King Lear vibe, as courtiers were expected to vie with each other in playing to the lunacy of the day. 6/end

16

133

739

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 month

Reading today's government newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta in many ways illustrates the key dynamics around the Crocus terrorist attack. A short thread 1/

17

155

753

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 month

Sudden excitement from some quarters: ‘OMG, Russia now admitting war in Ukraine is a war, not a “special military op”’. The truth, as ever, is rather less exciting, but an interesting semantic-political tale 1/

13

144

743

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

He notoriously rarely goes to the Kremlin, let alone stays there overnight, and there were no scheduled early morning meetings or the like there which might make one assume he might be in his (palatial) flat there 2/

6

99

718

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

A grumpy note to journalists: if you want to talk/write about the spate of recent deaths of rich Russians, (a) they're not 'oligarchs' and (b) if you want to know how meaningful the recent toll has been, find out 1st how many comparable figures died similarly in previous years…

47

77

723

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

10 months

There’s been some wild speculation that #Russia ’s other mercenary forces could be the source of the “next mutiny” that misses the mark as to how they are unlike #Wagner . A quick explanatory thread 1/

21

187

719

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

10 months

The New York Times, which often feels like the US intel community's PR agency, is reporting that the IC suspects Gen Surovikin knew in advance about #Prigozhin 's mutiny. Maybe so, but were I a cynic I'd wonder if this was an info op because... 1/

39

142

719

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

Then he may feel a practical necessity to do something to prove the opposite, because in his eyes to be seen as weak is to become prey. This may make him do something more aggressive than he otherwise plans. So maybe let's keep the tone cool and tentative... /8end

35

53

686

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

1: Battlefield There's v little scope for Putin to win back momentum, even with the mobilised reservists. The missiles strikes on cities may assuage the hawks but has no strategic value. Indeed, burns through dwindling stocks that will be needed later. 2/

8

57

697

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

Then he turns up in the ranks, not least with his ghastly skull stunt, having - by his claim to Meduza - been the originator of the now-infamous 'Z' (although one needs to take the claims of self-publicists with some caution) 7/

Буква Z — официальный (и зловещий) символ российского вторжения в Украину. Мы попытались выяснить,...

Первые снимки и видео, запечатлевшие российскую военную технику с непонятной маркировкой на борту, появились в соцсетях за несколько недель до начала войны. Чаще всего встречалась латинская литера...

meduza.io

1

26

682

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

I need to ponder Putin's pretty deranged latest speech before a proper analysis, but a couple of initial thoughts 1) I think it's clear he genuinely believes this is a grand civilisational struggle w West, that's not just rhetoric, which means the war isnt just about Ukraine 1/

46

202

691

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

A persistent suggestion has been that this humble 'captain' in the army is actually not only one of Prigozhin's people but operating near-autonomously, and perhaps being groomed as a future 'hero' precisely for PR benefit 8/

1

21

676

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

It's not just that Putin has conclusively 'lost' Ukraine, his catastrophic bid to reassert authority there is also breaking the rest of Moscow's informal empire, and it's a process I don't think he can reverse. (Even if he understands it, which I doubt) 11/end

14

116

686

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

The dismissal of Dep Defence Minister Bulgakov, head of logistics, is widely seen as punishment for the evident failings of the Russian military in #UkraineRussianWar . A short thread. 1/

Putin sacks another military general as he takes hands-on approach to war from Moscow

The move was widely seen as a punishment for the flaws in logistical support for Russia's 'special operation' in Ukraine

www.telegraph.co.uk

23

159

673

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

Wow, just received notification that my IN MOSCOW'S SHADOWS podcast has just had its millionth download! I know the convention is to say you're humbled, but if hitting the mega-mark isn't actually a reason to feel pretty chuffed, I don't know what is...

In Moscow's Shadows

Russia, behind the headlines as well as in the shadows. This podcast is the audio counterpart to Mark Galeotti's blog of the same name, a place where

inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com

51

28

681

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

Putin’s Suez moment: he’s watching his Central Asian empire drift away The war is an accelerator. No epiphany for Putin, but defeat in Ukraine and decline elsewhere *may* help Russians begin reassessing their place in the world My latest for @thetimes

Putin’s Suez moment: he’s watching his Central Asian empire drift away

It is not just Ukraine that Russia is driving out of its orbit with this war. Vladimir Putin is also losing what remains of his country’s imperial hegemony over post-Soviet Eurasia, most notably the...

www.thetimes.co.uk

30

182

663

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

8 months

Does anyone really believe that a Russia-North Korea deal *isn't* going to happen? I hardly think Kim Jong Un would have trundled to Vladivostok just for a chat and to see if a deal could be arranged. I imagine the deal is done: this is just the theatre around the announcement

40

79

675

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

7 months

This is just too delicious. Today, at Valdai, #Putin claimed that #Prigozhin 's plane crashed because he and his senior commanders, drunk or on drugs, detonated a grenade inside the plane. Of course. I think we can all have faith in the Russian investigation, no? *

36

105

665

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

8 months

The EU needs a coherent strategy on Russian sanctions Apparently it’s ok to buy Indian-refined Russian crude, but potentially necessary to confiscate phones and toothpaste from Russian travellers and emigres. Some grumbles from me in @SpecCoffeeHouse

The EU needs a coherent strategy on Russian sanctions

This week, the European Union opted to extend sanctions on some 1,800 Russian companies and individuals for another six months.

www.spectator.co.uk

36

174

654

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 month

At great threat to my mental wellbeing, another dip into today’s Russian press around the Crocus City terrorist attack. A thread. 1/

13

118

658

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

4 months

Good heavens, this massively exceeded my expectations: over 1.5 million downloads of In Moscow's Shadows podcasts in the past year. I'm not exactly prone to humility, but I'm humbled. Thank you to everyone who listens, engages (and, best of all, actively supports through Patreon)

39

28

646

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

3: Social Contract Putin established implicit social contracts over war with both masses ('we'll be at war but it won't really affect most of you') and elites. Now he's having to break both 4/

2

47

632

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

2: Political Putin used to be able to play hawks and technocrats against each other. Now, he is having to swing between them, pleasing neither. 3/

3

42

625

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

Lots of hot takes after Xi's trip to Moscow saying Russia's vassalage now a done deal. As I say in this piece for @spectator , I don't think it's as cut and dried. Yes, China is now more powerful and Putin is looking for support, but... 1/

After his trip to Moscow, Xi Jinping still holds all the cards

After his arrival in Moscow on Monday, President Xi Jinping said that China is ready, along with Russia, ‘to stand guard over the world order based on international law’. This statement came closer...

www.spectator.co.uk

44

136

612

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

Oh, for heaven's sake, ⁦ @guardian ⁩. Will the #GerasimovDoctrine nonsense never die?

33

59

606

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

1 year

So instead, if we presume it was a Ukrainian attack, consider it a performative strike, a demonstration of capability and a declaration of intent: "don't think Moscow is safe." 4/

14

63

608

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

6: Gangsterism So increased signs of lateral competition, including these mysterious deaths, which are more likely business rivalries than anything to do with Kremlin. People hunkering down or getting aggressive, further degrading system effectiveness. 7/

1

48

600

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

2 years

First, *nothing* has changed on the ground in any meaningful way. Putin could have invaded yesterday, he can still do so tomorrow. This (latest) alleged date had no magic power or significance. 2/

4

65

575