cloutman @cloutman_ Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

cloutman

@cloutman_

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curator

Joined November 2019

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 days

bad news is we don't go straight to hades after May opex: estimate is 3.4%, lower than last month's, ~expected since YoY comp was 'favorable' good news is AI stonks & AI crypto likely have a good run into Jun 7 CPI estimate (next checkpoint), possibly into Jun 12 cuz HUGE Q-opex

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@cloutman_

cloutman

13 days

green light from powell :'), next checkpoint is big bank CPI estimates on May 10

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

someone removing $25M in stables from exchanges every ~5 minutes for the last 2 hrs (1) similar signature on 13 March, while USDC was depegged, in $126M clips (2) can't recall other such instances in last few years any ideas?

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 years

gcr called this in nov 2021. so sick "cycles still exist" was particularly maverick

@GiganticRebirth

GCR

@GiganticRebirth

2 years

@Cryptomodollas high confidence interval that we're very late in the cycle [and that cycles still exist] secure your freedom if you've won it

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@cloutman_

cloutman

10 months

larry fink went on a major network to shill spot BTC ETF & they allowed us to buy 30200-30500 for 19 hours

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 years

matched, big fan of @zachxbt 's work

@q00ts

q00ts

2 years

We gifted @zachxbt $50k because we believe those that provide real value to this space need to be protected at all costs. Perhaps we'd see less hacks if we rewarded people like Zach over the reality TV influencers that stir up drama for engagement. Who steps up next?

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

5 batches a year, & the 1st batch on Day 73/365 (exactly 1/5 the year)? there are no COINcidences some quick mental maffs tells me the remaining 4 batches will be sold on days 146 (May 26), 219 (August 7), 292 (October 19) & 365 (December 31) bullish

@tier10k

db

1 year

[DB] US Govt Sold 9,800 BTC on March 14, Intends to Sell a Further 41,500 BTC Connected to Silk Road in Four Batches Over the Course of the Year: Court Filing

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 months

@virtualmusing i love this type of content

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

over $500M withdrawn in 2 hrs

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 months

@eyeslasho that's certainly interesting but we must respect their culture & traditions

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

there's actually no point telling normies ye got fucked on FTX they don't understand your journey, no sympathy for the (formerly) crypteau riche & you're just going to get 10-100x angrier by the end of the convo just have to make it all back so that there's no story to tell

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

could be urgent, this alert previously flagged historic FTX stables withdrawals on Nov 5

@cloutman_

cloutman

2 years

anyone have thoughts on what appears to be the single largest hourly stablecoin withdrawal reading from exchanges, today? (it's top 10 transactions but imo decent proxy) i used to think of this as an urgent withdrawal of bid-side liquidity, several high readings last 7 days too

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

think about how insane these actions are in the tardfi context Founder selling equity without official disclosure (no official info about early allocations' breakdown either), while customer holdings are trapped in the company's interest bearing product, with no set release date

@bradmillscan

Brad Mills 🔑⚡️

1 year

Wait a second, Vitalik didn’t even stake his ETH 😂 He just sent $40 million worth of his ETH to an other address. Imagine being stuck in the ETH staking ponzi with no timeline for getting liquidity and watching Vitalik send his premine around all liquid and shit.

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 months

@deedydas imo a Chinese cast for an Oxford adaptation wouldn't make sense, the aim should be to reflect Oxford scientist & engineer demographics & values precedent: Scorcese's The Departed, US adaptation of HK film Internal Affairs +composite characters are often useful & used in film/tv

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

the hierarchy for nearly everything is top 1% men > 100% of women > bottom 99% of men

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@cloutman_

cloutman

10 months

@LynAldenContact BTC spot ETF approval by Feb 2024

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 month

@gabewise everything airchat does is disgusting to me

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

fan of the concept @STFX just launched my first STV :D, interested to see how this evolves

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@cloutman_

cloutman

4 months

@uncledoomer to make things worse, the lads' made up internet coin BTC will demonetize all the money the women have saved

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@cloutman_

cloutman

10 months

if BlackRock ETF can't get us from $25K to $35K minimum while tardfi flows are also supportive (till ~July 19), just gotta accept the participant profile has changed quite a bit -- not as much credit available to lever up, not as many reckless apes, etc. or they know something🤔

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

if you think GCR sold his account, your intuition is the problem

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@cloutman_

cloutman

8 months

@chheplo no ilya rofl looks like they hit quotas

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

who's ready for the echo bubble exit pump? (HIGH RISK) scaling back in, 10% at a time, over the next few days. max size above 23250 1D targeting 1800 on ETH, hopefully 2000 (hehe) pump window might be tiny (7-10 days if brutal NFP), will look to tp &/or fill shorts from Mar 10

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

gud job every1 but it's time to scale into shorts now 25000-27000 ideally but 48-72H TWAP also p gud, targeting 19000-21000 (much worse on ETH) dump likely to be brutally fast n furious, if ye don't have limit tp's ye gon miss a few % on the wick

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

2 of the biggest issues plaguing CT traders: 1. overfitting/extrapolating based on limited data 2. astrology/fooled by randomness you're instantly 99th percentile+ if you're aware of & can overcome these, but ye must know that even CT's top tier suffers from em to some extent

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@cloutman_

cloutman

4 months

@Austen reverse racism is racism

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@cloutman_

cloutman

6 days

@spectate_or AGI

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 years

imagine if he beats trump lol

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

it's possible Jump & Jane Street know something more draconian is coming from US authorities

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

thread of trading/investment podcasts i found worthwhile, starting with this one

@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

excellent pod

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

portfolio down 85% since FTX - will have to trade extremely selectively going fwd US Liquidity management somehow becoming less clear to me over time lol + urge to make it all back in 1 trade too strong, must be managed looks like it's gonna take years for portfolio ATHs sigh

@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

it's just untradable, esp. for my style, unless you're able to anticipate macro & Fed actions well ahead of time or just copytrade gcr, huss, CL, mgnr lol

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 months

the crypto cycle is GCR saying something somewhere once, followed by increasingly stupider versions of the text peddled by CT influenza tryna pass it off as their own thoughts, till someone comes up with a version so bastardized, that it ends the cycle, only for another to begin

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

debt limit has been hit, Treasury General Account (TGA) typically rapidly draws down thereafter (injecting liquidity) & speculators typically run with it pounding the green button until TGA gets <$100B or sucks in liquidity instead crypto is a liquidity-driven speculative casino

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@cloutman_

cloutman

10 months

sold 20% of BTC holdings, scaling into S&P500 short gm

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 years

did exactly this, average 18 cents on the dollar we live to fight another day

@CoinDesk

CoinDesk

2 years

Customer funds stuck on crypto exchange @FTX_Official are being firesaled for cents on the dollar via over-the-counter transactions. @0x_tracy reports

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@cloutman_

cloutman

11 months

prolly nothing, but USDTUSD Coinbase 0.991 alert triggered 30 mins ago😬 last couple triggers are May 2022 Luna implosion, Nov 2022 FTX rug

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 years

issue0 details such a coherent backstory & pedigree that it's difficult to imagine a better fit for molly's skills, chosen path & accumulated xp than precisely what she's decided on tru internet hero imo, very principled with a great history of thankless & comp-less work, subbed

@molly0xFFF

Molly White

2 years

i've launched a patreon and a newsletter! has the full story, and some updates on what i've been up to and some exciting things coming up. i would be enormously grateful if you would join or share!

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@cloutman_

cloutman

10 months

@jam_croissant translation: where has the liquidity gone?

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

@dragonrbrn not immediately clear due to my primitive on-chain skillz😬 atm tryna figure out thru cryptoquant

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

in crypto & in life, one must never underestimate the cartel's ability to turn on the jets during opportune periods anticipating the cartel's moves is ~the entire game these days my bags are packed, & hopefully the next 7-10+ days is a party worthy of concluding the echo bubble

@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

who's ready for the echo bubble exit pump? (HIGH RISK) scaling back in, 10% at a time, over the next few days. max size above 23250 1D targeting 1800 on ETH, hopefully 2000 (hehe) pump window might be tiny (7-10 days if brutal NFP), will look to tp &/or fill shorts from Mar 10

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 years

@jay_ftx sauce

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El Momento Podcast EP10 - Hablando con Caroline Ellison: CEO Alameda...

En este episodio conversamos con Caroline Ellison, co-CEO de Alameda Research y antigua trader en Jane Street, sobre como alcanzar un alto nivel de trading e...

www.youtube.com

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 months

@embernic 'women teach men many valuable things so ill personally never try to find love again'

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

the skill required for trading levered longs profitably long-term is extremely high basically every time you'd actually want to be levered in BTC's history, you'd find great reasons (FUD) to not be & everytime you're easily able to put on leverage, it's prolly a bad time innit

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

incapable of feeling joy, FTX baggage looks set to dominate every aspect of life until everything is made back it is what it is

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@cloutman_

cloutman

8 months

if people could actually discern elite traders, they'd be one themselves many made their fortunes simply getting lucky riding a historic bull market there's several purported 8+ figure 'traders' with 1000s of tweets, that haven't expressed anything insightful, even by accident

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@cloutman_

cloutman

11 months

June 2023 - Feb 2024 BTC price is a live speculative ETF approval prediction market with lower bound (ETF rejection) $25K & upper bound (ETF approval) $1T mcap i.e. $53K balchunas current estimate = 50%, rejection only possible >= 45 days after BlackRock 19b4 should be up only

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

mental health is for women

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

'fairness' is a concept you must wipe from your consciousness, it will only cause you pain

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@cloutman_

cloutman

7 months

@pear_protocol @NarrativesPod @hufhaus9 @STFX_IO @MustStopMurad STFX is just super inspiring -- PMF's there, vision's very practical, love that y'all are not just jumping to higher limits even after several months since launch, & keep shipping incremental improvements really enjoying following idea->execution in real time, rooting for y'all!

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 month

@paleonormie hmm it's not 10x psyop susceptibility due to much lower general objectivity?

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

@Yodaskk removal from exchanges tho, & it's USDT

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

hardships are guaranteed (recently learnt that the FTX rug was only the 2nd worst thing to happen to me in 2022) you mustn't dwell on whether they're 'deserved', only that they must be overcome - grit, perseverance, inspiration & creative problem-solving can help you on your way

@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

'fairness' is a concept you must wipe from your consciousness, it will only cause you pain

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

atm imo this is the likeliest path: 1. stonks & crypto rally till Mar 10 NFP 2. bad NFP Mar 10 sinks everything, bad CPI Mar 14 kills everything till Mar 22 FOMC 3. 25 bps at FOMC leads to a bounce

@RabinTofsla

papa bear🐻

1 year

#FederalReserve hiking 50 after hiking 25 send far stronger signal, unlike just hiking 50 in the first place its increase credibility, shows true data dependency and central bank resolve to fight inflation as needed and do nothing as needed

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 years

how are we still floating at 0.75 Trillion crypto mcap after what's happened

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 years

@ApeDurden ya but few of those can show 8-9 fig PnLs from the top

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@cloutman_

cloutman

24 days

fiscal dominance = Yellen (fiscal) dominance over Powell (monetary), therefore QRAs & TGA are more important for markets than FOMCs & Fed B/S going fwd also means BTC & Gold unaffected by monetary auth/high rates, & the fiscal authority is doing Trillions in QE cuz election year

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

gud job every1 but it's time to scale into shorts now 25000-27000 ideally but 48-72H TWAP also p gud, targeting 19000-21000 (much worse on ETH) dump likely to be brutally fast n furious, if ye don't have limit tp's ye gon miss a few % on the wick

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

new bullish pp, next change hopefully with BTC right up against 200WMA

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@cloutman_

cloutman

13 days

what do we make of this (am i missing something obvious?)

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

if the events depicted in the The Big Short are accurate, burry handled the trade disastrously, about as bad as one could have with the anaylsis at his disposal & i believe he's been p lame since that trade?

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@cloutman_

cloutman

11 months

ye think this lil stall around the 200WMA at 26500 might be last chance to get on

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@cloutman_

cloutman

4 months

@carmguti im sympathetic to the sentiment but there's hundreds of thousands (if not more) of Bond villains developing rn with this mantra

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

imo the elite tier (excluding ones whose process i don't have much insight into) is, in alphabetical order: @AriDavidPaul @AviFelman @caprioleio @CL207 @forecastooor @gametheorizing @GCRClassic @HsakaTrades @Husslin_ @krugermacro @Rewkang @Tree_of_Alpha

@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

there's so few who really understand what they're talking about so many that've made famous top/bottom calls but didn't really understand the mechanism behind em, fluke might publish a list of actually great traders - kinda obvious list, but some not proportionately appreciated

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@cloutman_

cloutman

3 months

ive seen & done a great many things in this life, nothing is going to come close to shrooms

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 years

binance UI/UX, i.. painful

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@cloutman_

cloutman

11 months

hey guys is there appetite for another crypto podcast featuring traders where we can discuss mundane things that have nothing to do with our edge

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 years

seen chatter of an SBF put between $12K-$15K, anyone got sauce?

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@cloutman_

cloutman

6 months

@0xmaddie_

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@cloutman_

cloutman

10 months

@TheStalwart @EricBalchunas mashallah

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

classic BTC cycle cet. par. - 6-9 month pre-halving speculative pump/relative strength - post-halving dump/relative weakness - 6-9 month pump leads to viral marketing loop that draws in fresh $, fueling bull-run until inflow exhaustion - bleed, echo bubble, bleed till next cycle

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 years

imo this depends on when the US defaults & the commodity supercycle begins PoS (& perhaps other ARKK-y stuff) only gains big traction in the very last inning of an artificially low interest rate regime with colossal debasement & investment outlooks are shaped by the same 'water'

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

@nic__carter more deetz pls nic

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

the problem is it now feels like hard work when it felt like play earlier im so fucking tired, brain's turned to mush. everything takes twice as long, everything is twice as hard much angrier than tired tho (might largely be ct-influenza-driven) so the trudge continues. forever

@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

there's actually no point telling normies ye got fucked on FTX they don't understand your journey, no sympathy for the (formerly) crypteau riche & you're just going to get 10-100x angrier by the end of the convo just have to make it all back so that there's no story to tell

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@cloutman_

cloutman

4 years

@zhusu m8 I'm the biggest bull there is but how does 320 on ETH hold if S&P even takes a 5% dump on Tuesday

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@cloutman_

cloutman

4 months

@WuWei113 @mcuban i love your bio

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@cloutman_

cloutman

6 months

@thecaptain_nemo people don't believe me when i tell em the matrix was only good by accident

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@cloutman_

cloutman

11 months

pre-ETF BTC might never need to be sold

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@midcurver68

midcurver68

11 months

@cloutman_ how high we going mr cloutman

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

would prefer all negative catalysts in a compressed timeframe thx high CPI, FOMC minutes focus on inflation much higher than 2% target, TGA tax day April 18, DoJ action, Shanghai boondoggle, RRP suck, US Govt BTC selling timeline accelerated, MOVE index > 150, etc. any others?

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

BTC has fundamentals & plausible narratives for ~all kinds of financial conditions liquidity proxy, hard money, energy derivative during peak cheap energy, growth asset, commodity, neutral uncensorable sovereign reserve candidate, sovereign bond CDS, etc. the ultimate asset :')

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@cloutman_

cloutman

6 months

next year or so of tardfi trading on autopilot: 1. long ARKK till blowoff top for up to 50% 2. short ARKK till Fed intervenes for 50% 3. long GDXJ for a couple months for 100% 4. short ARKK till Fed intervenes for another 50% 5. long GDXJ for a couple months for another 100%

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@cloutman_

cloutman

5 months

@WashburneAlex classic

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Jon Stewart On Vaccine Science And The Wuhan Lab Theory

We're back in the Ed Sullivan Theater and it's only right that Stephen's first guest is none other than friend of the show, Jon Stewart. What did they talk a...

www.youtube.com

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

@Husslin_ @Cryptonoon121 the shame hahahaha

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@cloutman_

cloutman

8 months

understanding reflexivity makes patiently waiting for godlike entries the only interesting move

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

ok am 80% bull, got something that might blow yer minds

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

over 1-2 months ye, but it's not the liquidity directly driving price imo, it's just that speculators are cushioned from a macro nuke while the TGA draws down so they feel safe to gamble lol should retrace a big chunk of the pump when TGA rebuild starts from $80B to $700B+ later

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 month

a new crypto cycle has begun with that GCR tweet cryptonatives will bid every single dip from here, until they're rich or lose ~everything it's external capital that determines whether prev cycle ATH can be overcome for good ETF flows likely amplify BTC PA in both directions

@cloutman_

cloutman

2 months

the crypto cycle is GCR saying something somewhere once, followed by increasingly stupider versions of the text peddled by CT influenza tryna pass it off as their own thoughts, till someone comes up with a version so bastardized, that it ends the cycle, only for another to begin

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

@Rewkang hehe

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@cloutman_

cloutman

10 months

how much does BTC pump if Grayscale win v SEC drops this week?

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

bro already?!

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

r u ready

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@cloutman_

cloutman

5 months

@JacquesThibs XiPT-4 INCOMING

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

starting an AI podcast/video thread, will add eps over time recos welcome!

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Andrej Karpathy: Tesla AI, Self-Driving, Optimus, Aliens, and AGI |...

Andrej Karpathy is a legendary AI researcher, engineer, and educator. He's the former director of AI at Tesla, a founding member of OpenAI, and an educator a...

www.youtube.com

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

BTC is often first to sniff out liquidity bottoms. big if tru

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@crossbordercap

CrossBorder Capital

@crossbordercap

1 year

Will QE end early? via @FT Thanks to ⁦ @rbrtrmstrng ⁩ for discussing #liquidity and #QE . Size of #RRP vs #Fed reserves vital as ⁦ @FedGuy12 ⁩ says

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@cloutman_

cloutman

2 years

molly's ( @molly0xFFF ) newsletter is now on substack at i think she's doing incredibly important work (details: ), & going forward it looks like we'll be getting more crypto deep dives from her, in addition to weekly updates🤘

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Citation Needed

Citation Needed features critical coverage of the cryptocurrency industry and of issues in the broader technology world. It is independently published by Molly White, and entirely supported by...

www.citationneeded.news

@cloutman_

cloutman

2 years

issue0 details such a coherent backstory & pedigree that it's difficult to imagine a better fit for molly's skills, chosen path & accumulated xp than precisely what she's decided on tru internet hero imo, very principled with a great history of thankless & comp-less work, subbed

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@cloutman_

cloutman

10 months

@mskvsk holy shit

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

funding profile still v good on BTC, if i get to short ETH at $2000 im holding it to $0

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

there's many CT accounts that started off wanting to become traders (or LARPed as traders from day 1), but gradually subconscously pivoted to cringe influenza thru a virtuous (vicious) cycle of their cringiest posts being rewarded with the highest engagement of all their tweets😅

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@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

if saylor is to be liq'd, that's the short you absolutely have to nail, because there might not be a good crypto trade for a while after that if not, it's business as usual, just keep dancing to the Fed-Treasury liquidity tune & you'll have enough opportunities to make it back

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@cloutman_

cloutman

27 days

do sellers not know who gcr is

0

1

18

@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

if DCG situation is resolved by accepting creditor committee terms (which reduces/eliminates the need for DOJ action &/or liquidation of assets), we've likely bottomed already, given macro might be cushioned for 1-2 months by $350B TGA warchest, assuming RRP sideways

1

0

18

@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

@john_j_brown hot take: OKX is the #1 exchange rn

3

0

17

@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

REAL potential for a significant dip on a beat, will max long & hold till CPI in 11 days

@JStanleyFX

James Stanley

1 year

#NFP expectation for +185k tomorrow the actual print has beaten the expectation for the past 9 months and 11 of the past 12

Tweet media one

8

23

113

1

1

18

@cloutman_

cloutman

1 year

does seem like i overtraded & cucked myself out of a good short entry lol

5

0

17

@cloutman_

cloutman

2 years

binance funding finally seems to be normalizing from absurd levels last few days think (hope) the jig is up, we should go down 80% from here if anyone thinks this is stupid, speak now

6

2

18