ty for ze art
@boldleonidas
- I'm Changing my PFP after 3 entire years-
Because the winds are shifting.
It's time for shared stories and culture.
It's time for us to soar.
It's Dragon szn.
Starting a mega-๐งต on life alpha.
Insights that appear when my subconscious is lit up (eg shower thoughts, traveling) will be added periodically as they manifest.
My goal is to collect the ingredients for making great life decisions, & you are welcome to join for the ride ๐
Everyone selling UST at 60c and 70c on the dollar is actually just helping it re-peg by reducing the asset-liability mismatch.
The game theory is complex and fascinating.
And as usual, the ones who lose out from this are those who don't understand what game they are playing.
0/ โก๏ธ๐กโก๏ธ๐กโก๏ธ
A thread on the Game Theory of the Crypto universe!
My most important piece to date for the crypto community:
How $BTC Dominance is the gravitational force causing the tidal nature of crypto cycles.
or
"A Tragedy of the Crypto Commons, and how WAGMI despite it."
1/
I'm not a reg. financial advisor.
For that you take a Series65 Exam, fill registration forms, and prove $10k in assets.
Then make $85k advising ppl to split $ btw stock ETFs and gvt bonds (by counting years to retirement).
Cool story bro. Here's the real stuff for free ๐
In retrospect, China forcing local miners and crypto whales to dump most of their $BTC to western buyers at fire-sale prices in mid-2021 will come to be seen as perhaps the largest intercontinental wealth transfer in human history.
Shorting is a dark art- suitable only for the most elite of trading wizards.
You pay ongoing borrow costs in a war of attrition, for limited upside, all whilst taking on risk of liquidation- no matter how big your bankroll is!
The game theory lens is particularly interesting ๐งต
Today the journey begins.
We set the stage for a first Principles framework, guided by the Three Laws of Thermo-Ponzinomics.
Join me, as we set off on a hitchhike across the Ponziverse, in "Of Smoke and Mirrors, Part 1".
1/
"๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ค๐ญ๐ช๐ฑ๐ด๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐๐ฉ๐ฆ Luna" ๐
What game was Terra trying to play?
Where did the deadly asset-liability mismatch really come from? (Hint: Not Anchor)
Was $LUNA simply destined to fail?
Mega-๐งต..
I keep seeing the take from influencoors that the 20% yield was unsustainable and thats why LUNA crashed.
No frens..
Noone has explained the game properly yet.
This weekend Iโm gonna write it up, at all costs. Its too important.
"Oh no!!", the influencas cried out. "CZ was counter-trading us! ๐๐"
Chillax fat man.
So Binance had some affiliated entities trading on the exchange. Do you wanna see how deep the Rabbit Hole really goes?
Let's talk about CEX.
1..2..3..4 things to keep in mind. No cap.
Every road I try to follow leads to the same place- Its almost inevitable:
USD is too strong.
Economy is headed for a downturn.
Need to ease- but can't because of inflation.
Solution: Tons of USD printing, but only through soft UBI and handouts for the lower class.
Heres why:
I literally cannot believe what I'm reading.
WHAT???
Those of us still believing in crypto are SICK and TIRED of hackers draining all the progress people are fighting so hard for.
But this level of irresponsibility by
@el33th4xor
and the
@starsarenacom
team is veryโฆ
Reading the comments, you would think that there was a $30B hack. Stars Arena is a profitable service that makes money. The amount lost, $3m, is something that SA can recover in about 10 days or so. Worst case, the team can borrow $3m and pay it back with interest.
Rememberโฆ
0/
Decided to give a bit of trading alpha leak to followers-
Not to completely bash Technical Analysis- charts do have some signal in them. But there's also a ton of noise, and 95% of chartists are akin to astrologists.
A much better way is to just go straight to the source
1/
A ๐งต on the game theory of $LOOKS ..
I get asked very often in DMs, "ser is such and such a ponzi?"
I've gone through a ton of projects mechanics, plenty of scammy things out there, but also a lot of creative stuff going on.
Haven't expressed Macro views in a while- but as things are about to really start moving- its time.
I spent months analyzing the endgame of U.S. policy.
The outcome I saw is now coming into view-
Gradually at first.. then all at once, the Fed will poo-poo in their pampers. ๐งต
Fiat currency is fast approaching a full-on crisis.
Post 2021, inflation got so acute that it finally broke mainstream consciousness- but the fiat game has been rigged for decades.
Like cฬถoฬถbฬถiฬถeฬถ Sauron, it was laying low, building its power before launching its onslaught..
Don't know who out there needs to read this ๐งตtoday.
Being under immense stress for too long can literally kill you from within, wrecking the body.
My personal story of how chronic stress almost cost me my life-
Plus 3 effective tips on how to become more antifragile to it..
26/26
So in Summary, my totally NOT 'financial advice' advice to a young person wanting to set a financial basis for their future-
Bonds: 0%
Equities: 20% low cost-index ETF
Real Estate: 15-20%
Commodities: 10%
Cash: 20% in stablecoins
Crypto: 25% BTC, 5-10% Alts
++education
Migration towards Defi Exchanges- Like WFH, it was always going to happen, but this is the Covid accelerant moment.
At Selini Capital we have many HFT veterans amongst us, with an intricate understanding of market microstructure.
Lessons that are guiding us on evaluating DEXes:
If I'm not hallucinating.. mETH has already surpassed 200,000 doses!
Zooming up the leaderboard and closing in on $500M TVL.. ๐ซฃ
Its time for a mETH party to celebrate!
The mETH LaB is providing a huge party budget:
20 whole mETH have been packaged up as party favors...โฆ
Two Scenarios:
a) Dip is just year-end selling.
We get a massive BTC-led rally Jan1-15th that creates momentum, and we get on the merry-go-round for 1 more ride (75%)
b) If no big uptrend in early Jan = cycle over. Macro only gets worse. 6 months+ of downward chop coming (25%)
1/
Just like 1 year ago only a few of us were talking about imminent inflation but now its in every news story, later this year the new popular word will be stagflation.
If you are shuddering, don't. Next year it'll be even scarier-
The 2023/2024 word will be 'CBDC'. ๐๐
Macro is a mess. Here's some clarity:
The Fed wants to see something really crack before pausing.
They are focused on the labour market- but it is still strong!
Because labour participation rate is low and most balance sheets ok, its likely that something else breaks first๐
I couldn't take it anymore!!
Every day I was waking up. See airdrop announced. Check my wallets- Bad airdrop ๐ก
It is what it is, but I need my airdrops to go up!
So this Steady Lad got real Mad.
The
@MadLads
community has been impressing me for some time. They are solid atโฆ
Turned 38 today.
Ate otoro and A5 wagyu.
NFP came hot. Thought I was gonna be down bad- instead up 7 figs.
Recorded a debate on BTC where I had the chance to give form to original thoughts I've been wanting to contribute.
I've had many bad bdays.
But this one was good ๐
@RichardHeartWin
Bet you $10m it doesnt do a 280x this time.
Iโll give you 2:1.
@cobie
can escrow.
Lfg Richard- clear chart, full of sh*t Heart, cant lose.
If $UST had been better designed (didn't leak out so much of its treasury) and it managed to survive until today, this USDC/Tornado-freeze event would have been a rallying cry.
@stablekwon
had some good ideas, but the problem he was tackling was harder to solve than he realized.
People surprised by the ETH + BTC squeeze. Wait till you see what happens in 2024.
Simple clarity-
1. Only 2 tokens have crossed the chasm of being a crypto store of value.
2. ETH supply has run out and BTC's is shrinking to under 1% soon.
There. aren't. enough. coins.
3. There will be an eventual $ETH and $BTC supply squeeze.
"It's not just a meme. At some point you will run out of coins."
"The marginal barrel prices the lot."
Good time now to imagine what happens if fiat<>crypto ramps get SHUT hard by the gvt:
NO way to get money in. Bearish right?
Could actually be a huge step forward. An entire separate economy can be built around the digital assets-
With no choice to convert to fiat, people willโฆ
'The Revenge of The $ETH' is starting.
Everything has lined up, it will now run for weeks.
Alts ran; Saylor fired his clip; Eth ETF next up.
The risk/reward on Ether is so compelling here, that I see a liquidity black hole now forming in January.
"Imajin being bearish ETH"..
To be clear, you won't see me cheering $OHM price going down, today or ever.
What is there to cheer? Early giga-whales r cashing out the gold coins, while the little guys are left dreaming of wooly mammoth steaks.
Price goes down bc of whale selling, mechanics & 9,9 timebombs.
Here's some ฮฑ for you:
-When to heavy buy the risk asset dip?
If treasuries (orange line) are falling with stocks, watch your step.
When they finally react to the selloff and reverse, thats the early sign the market believes the Fed has seen enough bloodshed to ease off a bit.
In 2021 it seemed like everyone in the world was buying crypto.
The few resisting were gonna HFSP.
We were all starting to believe we were in the midst of a historic SuperCycle that wouldn't end until Dogecoin Millionaire guy bought Finland for the LOLs.
What went wrong? ๐งต
-Uniquely skilled people across all disciplines seek each other out. The top actors, athletes, businessmen, etc are just 1-degree of seperation apart from each other.
If one can level up enough to get access to the elite group, growth goes parabolic. It truly is a binary thing.
I know FTX offered their biggest clients "no-liquidation" accounts.
This means they trusted you to repay a negative balance, so they'd let you top up whenever instead of liquidate you.
Its like a casino giving you credit- its just chips for them, they dont need $ in the bank.
The epic trilogy "Of Smoke and Mirrors" proceeds with the rare sequel that is even better than the original-
๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ: ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฑ๐'๐๐ฎ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ
A Masterclass on building your own Ponzi empire; The Caveman Classic; Learning the 10 cOhmandments;
A simple description of why I keep saying the economy is fucked.
2020-2022 is a period of negative real growth- There simply is less stuff being made because lockdowns and supply chain disruption made the global workforce a lot less efficient than previous years.
However..
1/
What does it mean to be at the end of the long term debt cycle?
Lets start with a short term debt cycle:
Hard times make easy policy
Easy policy makes strong bitcoin
Strong bitcoin makes frothy altcoins
Frothy altcoins make hard times
Rinse and repeat. Butโฆ
Btc ETF is about to Drop. Awesome!
But markets are fw looking- and ETH Etf is about to have 'next'.
The ETH community has been depressed.
Its time to just take some mETH. A double-dose in fact.
Christmas may be over but Santa Jordi is just starting:
The mETH giga-alpha ๐งต๐
8/
Unlike the anons who have been deleting their accounts, Iโll be staying here to do my part to help us piece it all together from first principles and try find the right ways forward.
No bulltard posting, no coin schilling. Just searching for +Sum outcomes.
(๐,๐).
8/
So the game is set:
The wealth effects of Bitcoin are a shared resource for all Crypto Plebs.
If BTC stays healthy, we all make it.
Despite inter-protocol tribalism, many token founders do support BTC- they want to build on a solid foundation.
But remember the Tragedy..
1/
First of all, sorry for being MIA this week- I know many of you are hurting with this price carnage and looking for some guidance on how to process all the wild headlines.
Some of these headlines (Celcius) I could foresee but others (eg 3ac) have caught me off guard too.
Crypto is (so) back! Despite limp equities, $BTC rose like a Phoenix ๐ชฝ
The prophecies foretold it.. long time coming!
So enjoy the moment-
Toss dice on Ponzi-coins if you want that PnD adrenaline!
But then we have smth serious to discuss.
*Trigger warning: 'S-word' .. ๐งต
Told myself I wasn't gonna get suckered in to a response game but here we are.
Ser, choose your fav 15 of the top30 coins; use your last 2 years data, or astrology if you prefer.
If 10 of them outperform BTC in 2022 you win.
$1million bet, 5% to charity. Personal money. In?
@gametheorizing
@ParikPatelCFA
Iโve shown data from the last 2 years. Please show me any time period where BTC acted defensive, or outperformed.
BTC has horrible up capture and horrible down capture.
Itโs a good asset. But itโs not a good relative asset, nor related in anyway to other assets in any way.
Pushan was of my fav game theory prof's back in the day.
It's hilarious to see him still fleecing the students EVERY cohort with this same game theory auction trick! ๐ค
Many successful Crypto protocols owe their success to it, without even realizing it. Heres how it works:
Decision making is the meta-skill that rules them all.
We have limited time in life, so enormous success can only come from having superior judgement, not from working harder.
Even with superb routines and efficiency, you cant outwork 100 ppl. They have 2400 hours to your 24.
We all know
@BanklessHQ
are hyper-ventilatingly bullsih on the merge- but really Kudos to them for exiting the echo chamber a little bit to get another perspective!
And ๐ to all of you who helped me improve this piece, I am proud of the final outcome:
Back To The Future, IV Crypto Edition.
Plot:
You travel back in time to 2018 and find Do Kwon sitting in a cafe, sipping a matcha and scribbling in a notepad.
He's reading an article he printed out- "A Note on Cryptocurrency Stabilisation: Seigniorage Shares" by Robert Sams..
Dip will be ok, market will get bored and grind it back up soon enough. ๐ด
But you know what won't be ok? Hard Rock Nick is getting very agitated and has a message for
@SBF_FTX
:
Take care of
@FTX_Official
community asap, cause Nick is really losing his shit. ๐ก๐
RT..!
BTC took the punch well. We avoided the abyss.
Good start. Now its counterpunch time-
If a whale steps up here and starts a $1bn TWAP to send us green on the day, it will be a powerful, lasting narrative shift.
BTC can and should behave more like gold here (+2%) than EQ (-2%)
After you spend a couple decades making macro investment mistakes, you start to see how the economy's plumbing works...
The hidden levers and butterfly effects.
And I'll tell you-
If you want your stonks and cryptos to keep rising:
We need more nuclear power. That simple.
-There is a "2ฯ trap" : being better than almost anyone you know in IRL and letting your ego's identity get tied to this. Losing humbleness will stop your growth there.
-Insights from the world's best are immensely valuable. Level up enough first so you can appreciate them.
Explosive blog post dropping tomorrow.
You can then decide if you want to follow the Official Party Lines of EF Devs, Researchers, Influencoors & Moonbois-
Or this random independent analyzoor who moonlights as a blogger.
I tell ya- It ain't no fun when the rabbit got the gun.
I've been saying we are closer to things breaking tha people realize, and after the latest hawkish FOMC, I consider this to be the first shoe to drop.
Hawkish Fed-> Stronger Dollar-> Other CBs dump dollars to try and fight back.
Japan starts as they have the most reserves..
1/ I really dislike the cliqueness around coin/tokens.
The brain gets re-wired when someone has a high financial investment. The same reality gets interpreted in warped ways around it.
And when a gang, er community, supports the same investment, they seem to become.. lunatics
GCR the absolute legend.
I can visualize and grasp fluid probability distributions in my head, pretty rare skill..
But this mofo GCR somehow doesnt need distributions, he just directly sees the actual base Truth. Unreal!
Alameda polycule sentencing forecasts
SBF - sentenced to 24 years; released after 11 years after family/backers spend unprecedented amounts of money on legal fees in various appeals leading to resentencing
CE - sentenced to 5.3; serves 3 for cooperation
Wang - 8/5.5
Hello my friend! How are you?!
So EigenLayer is reopening deposits imminently!
Thats great- super bullish on $Eigen! You can restake mETH for EigenPoints.
BUT I GIVE YOU SOMETHING BEDDAR MY FRIEND!
Huge Announcement alpha๐ฅ๐ฅ- pls dont @ me in a if you miss this ๐
Controversial take:
Watching sports is mostly a waste of time, apart from as a teaching tool for young people to learn about competitive dynamics, and what it takes to achieve elite performance-
in order to try at some point to apply the lessons to their own life situations.
1/
CPI Inflation reaching the 7+ % range is a new phenomenon, not seen since the 1970s.
But while this captures the squeeze faced nowadays by everyday consumers buying meat, filling their gas tank, and the like, here are some striking examples of inflation happening for years:
The single best piece advice I can give you to be successful in what you choose to do in life:
Prioritize becoming inspired.
Observe yourself and learn what people/ environments/ activities/ performances give you potent amounts of inspiration-
And surround your day with them
18/
Even if all fails behaviorally, every time we get spanked by the Deep Red Candle of Correction (๐ loot), we still get in line long enough to materialize a higher high.
Ideas win the long run, and Bitcoin's has the potency to disrupt the world order.
Onwards and upwards!
By popular request-
Let's look at why Macro analysts, funds, and geopolitical players only consider $BTC.
And also the two paths $ETH has to becoming a part of the macro world-
Ending with a game-theoretic explanation of the ongoing toxicity online between the two sides Maxis
Yes, the 2020-2021 bull market has ended, but we still have actual QE going on.
Not to mention, w/
1. the slow pace of rate rises and
2. inflation persisting,
we will have negative real rates for a long time still to come!
Pick a couple coins wisely and sit snug in spot..
Almost done with LUNA thread, need another 15-30 mins.
But main message need to be passed is this:
At this point its depegged already- so just let it float and keep your bullets to save this thing over the next days/weeks.
Temporary depeg more preferable than a final depeg.
But in a single decision point, one person can still beat a million.
If you compete in a dynamic where each side can only make one move at a time, you can get some real Spartan 300 type shit.
One famous example was Kasparov's match against a forum of 50,000 players in 1999.
Today's post will be controversial- both the Bitcoin and Ethereum Orthodoxies will have an inclination to immediately reject it.
I do not seek the controversy.
But I believe that broadening understanding of this truth is needed before the space can take its next leap forward:
My brief takeways from today's FOMC:
1. 50 in December is almost a lock. They are just trying to make it not look dovish, but its coming.
2. Bc presser was so hawkish, we have HIGH risk of illiquid crashes in back of the curve again, as well as even worse global currency shocks
Gonna put twitter account on private this week upon reaching 50k and do a private-only AMA saturday noon ET, thanks for all your kind encouragement over the past year.
Happy to chat on markets, macro, defi, trading, cards/boardgames and any oddball questions you might have.
@FearsomeLamb789
@RyanSAdams
@BanklessHQ
This is a fair comment- I have gone into both ETH and BTC rabbit holes.
I strongly recommend this debate w
@Justin_Bons
, I presented the unique strengths of BTC vs other crypto.
The power of unique provenance and great lore shouldn't be underestimated in the game of money.โฆ
Pertinent-
Blockchain addresses should be designed with a Gate:
When someone sends you a token, it only gets left at your 'front door'.
You can choose a setting to let them deliver into your house at will-
Otherwise you get to 'Approve receipt' to acknowledge them one by one.
While I'd like to take credit for predicting on
@BanklessHQ
that other L1s would join the $UST game, that idea came from the wizard
@GiganticRebirth
.
Key Q. now is whether alt-algostables will complement $UST, or we get a clash that makes the Curve Wars look like a pillow fight.
In all my time trading crypto, this $YGG coordinated pump+dump is one of the most brazen ones I've seen.
Many complicit in it, incl. exchanges.
I'm not sure if they are that desperate for money, or just feel so safe they won't get in trouble that they went full scam.
Whats the solution to the asymmetric EV of publicly warning against problem protocols/actors in the space?
You speak up and become a public enemy and then you have their online mobs hound you, and if the founders are influential they blackball you everywhere they can.
Examples:
Lets put aside the eyeball scanning weirdness.
And the VC allocations and Market Maker deals, the ZK-proofs and the Low-float tokenomics.
----> The crypto-economics of Worldcoin are ill-considered and potentially very dangerous.
Here's why $WLD might become the next $LUNA- ๐งต
To clarify on Soft-UBI:
Less stimmie checks in cash, and more targeted handouts. Gas is too high? Every house below $150k income gets a $200/month gas card and a $500 grocery voucher.
Good luck voting against this and hoping to win at the polls.
A story for you, amongst all the April Day shenanigans (++MEMES)..
Laelaps ('hurricane' in Greek), was a mythological dog that never failed to catch what it was hunting.
One day a heady dude called Cephalus decided to unleash the hound on a quest to hunt the Teumessian fox.
Can't ever recall seeing such a down day in equities resulting in a similar bloodbath in bonds.
As we have been saying, 60/40 is dead- no protection at all anymore.
The desperate search for asset safety might not be far off now..
Have been debating many smart frens lately on UST/Luna.
I'm still formulating my opinion to share with you all in a clear-headed article.
Yes, its a ponzi, but its also a damn strong ponzi that might work.
One thing's for sure - that
@stablekwon
, he go hard! Talk about allin..
In the โ20-21 market excess, there were few things I despised as much as the institutional gushing of โBuy Now Pay Laterโ fintechs.
Encouraging young people to become indebted irresponsible consumers.
In a recession this will turn into โBuy Now Pay Neverโ.
Burn it tf down ๐ฅ
$ETH staking is going to explode after the Shanghai fork allows withdrawals- esp. now as Metamask integration makes it easy for Dummies.
But LSD tokens are overvalued in anticipation of this- revenue is not going to change much, bc reward yields will plunge as staking % goes up.
End of 2022 ๐งต!
And what a tough year its been. I took plenty of body blows despite entering the year w/ eyes open on the changing macro backdrop.
Tldr : Cobie and I are indeed now flipping falafels at the Trafalgar Sq. Pret.
2022 Lookback, 2023 Expectations-
And off we go!!
16/
The power of game theory is being used to drive individual-user level behaviors, which collectively might lead to the innovative disruption of a $13bn regulated giant.
A community owned solution is better for everyone (except the OS VCs)!
Keep going
@LooksRareNFT
, gl!
Finally starting to escape long-Covid fatigue. Last weeks have been brutal, couldnt get through 6 hrs w/o hitting a wall and needing to nap.
Not the easiest month to navigate either.
Working on a banger of a thread atm, to celebrate being re-energized. Excited to share, fr fr!
Spoke with some
@puff_drgn
early contributors this morning- Tears were pouring down.
Its an emotional moment- Much sweat and love has gone into the Puff project, and its just beginning.
4000+ mETH Genesis Mint, 14h left; at $16mn+ its the no.1 NFT Mint of 2024 ๐คฏ!
drgn szn.
You have developed an amazing advancement in blockchain technology, and can run smoothly at 100x TPS than the current best L1.
You are FORCED to choose 1 of the following as your co-founder to be in charge of building out your L1's ecosystem.
Pick your fighter:
The HFT models I've created have made $100s of millions in trading profits over the past decade.
How did that happen?
Truth is, I'm not really sure ๐คทโโ๏ธ. I'm a mediocre coder and not expert in ML.
I spoke more about my experience in the secretive world of HFT for the first time-
Once or twice a year I like to share with you guys some of my stories and life lessons.
Not crypto specific- more geared to 18-35yoโs trying to navigate this crazy world we live in.
Its been a year since my twitter AMA so this week will record in person with
@YieldLabs
.
Iโฆ
@stablekwon
did a twitter spaces this morning with
@udiWertheimer
, and explained his thinking behind the decision to pivot UST to having partial BTC collateral.
I even got to pose Do the $22 million question I'd been wanting to ask him..๐