Sir John Chipman IISS @chipmanj Twitter profile

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Sir John Chipman IISS

8 months

The European security order is a ‘core interest’ of the West.’ There should be no conventional arms control, or ‘end-user’ restrictions, placed on Ukraine’s ability to defend its territory or counterattack as necessary to reclaim it.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Interesting that between 1997 and 2014 Russia was a member of the so-called G8. Tomorrow the G7 will meet, and for a period also again as the G7 plus 1. The Plus 1 will be President Zelensky of Ukraine.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Increasing Western resupply of lethal aid to Ukraine is essential so that Russia cannot ‘impose peace terms’ on Ukraine. Resupply by the West is not escalation, it is defence; it is not NATO Article 5 engagement, it is the exercise of the UN Article 51 right to self-defence.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

In this century, no act has been so brazenly & repeatedly evil in inter-state affairs than Russia's attack on Ukraine. Every principle of international law, diplomacy, civilisation & humanity has been broken. Diplomacy is an inadequate answer, military victory is the only reply.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

As Baltic states openly criticise Scholz and Macron for their calls to Putin, it looks increasingly like the balance of geopolitical influence in Europe is shifting to the East and to the North — the Franco-German engine is weakening as the main propellant of European strategy.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

The amount of times in the last month that people have cautioned against ‘escalation’ by the West in Ukraine when the actual escalation came from Putin in attacking the country is disrespectful both to Ukraine and the principles of strategy. Defence is not escalation.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

1 year

I am afraid that this is right: Germany has become the roadblock at the heart of Europe - New Statesman

Germany has become the roadblock at the heart of Europe

Berlin is consciously and deliberately stalling on sending Kyiv battle tanks.

www.newstatesman.com

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Repeating that 'we must not push Putin into a corner' ignores the fact that he has painted himself into one already by strategic choice and appears comfortable there. The West's aim must be to defeat Putin in Ukraine, to preserve Europe's security order and then strengthen it.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Yes! The idea that there is a balance to be struck between helping Ukraine but not directly hurting Russia too much is well past its sell by date. The ethical and strategic priority is to win fast, before these conscripts are thrown in to die, yet still only slow the advance.

Михайло Подоляк

@Podolyak_M

2 years

How Western allies must response to conscription in 🇷🇺? 1. Ramstein Activation 2. HIMARS and shells for artillery 3. ATACMS 4. No "taboo" on tanks and armored personnel carriers 5. Military training centers 🇺🇦 defends not only itself, but also European borders. Isn’t it obvious?

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

1 month

Ukraine is lawfully exercising its UN Article 51 right of self-defence, and the European security order is a core interest of the West. It is strategically illiterate to think or argue differently. Thus, there should be no conventional arms control, or ‘end-user’ restrictions,…

François Heisbourg

@FHeisbourg

1 month

Countries which think that by acquiring US weapons systems they are also securing a greater defence guarantee should think again: they may simply be acquiring red lines. Going European may be the wiser choice.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

The end of French exceptionalism. Once you claim your main role to be a mediator between right and wrong, days of grandeur are over. ‘Saving face’ is a weak diplomatic aim; Putin can take personal responsibility for his face. Humiliation: a mild punishment for war crimes.

Shashank Joshi

@shashj

2 years

"We must not humiliate Russia so that the day when the fighting stops we can build an exit ramp through diplomatic means," Macron said in an interview to regional newspapers... "I am convinced that it is France's role to be a mediating power."

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Robert Gates arrives at the strategically correct judgement in this concluding paragraph in the ⁦ @FinancialTimes ⁩ today.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

1 year

Perhaps a journalist can ask the White House to explain why the US and other Western countries are obsessively worried about risks of ‘escalation’ in Russia’s war on Ukraine … and why Russia is apparently not in the least worried about escalation, or what the West might do.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

It was never about NATO.

Samuel Ramani

@SamRamani2

2 years

Dmitry Medvedev says that Russia will not stop the war even if Ukraine rejects NATO membership. A reminder to those who overplay the role of NATO expansion in triggering this war.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

1 year

There was a self-congratulatory tone to this year’s Munich Security Conference as Americans & Europeans praised the fact that they had stayed united when it was thought that Putin would divide them & weaken the resolve to defend Ukraine. Yet that success was bought at a cost 1/5

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

An unfortunate intervention by Dr Kissinger at #wef22 — There is no strategic reason for Ukraine to concede its sovereignty to Putin, and every strategic reason for the West to support Kyiv to defeat Putin. There is no reason to be frightened of victory.

Henry Kissinger: Ukraine must give Russia territory

Former US Secretary of State warns against the defeat of Putin as Western unity on sanctions frays badly

www.telegraph.co.uk

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Defence is not escalation. Unfortunately, this needs to be repeated every day.

Shashank Joshi

@shashj

2 years

On S-300s to Ukraine. “The transfer of any system is being closely scrutinized by the White House and National Security Council as to whether or not it meets their test of what’s escalatory and what’s not. That’s causing the system to be constipated.”

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

1 year

This is why a coalition of Western states should develop a strategy forcibly to open the Black Sea. It cannot be right that Putin can unilaterally control food exports from Ukraine. Russia’s foreign minister threatens to scrap Ukraine grain deal via @FT

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

It is extraordinary to recall that NATO invoked the ‘responsibility to protect’ doctrine to support intervention in Libya, but cannot quite bring itself to do so in the case of Ukraine. Those in the Middle East who often complain of ‘double standards’ may ironically have a point.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

1 year

If that is the case, then there should logically not be any out-sized fear of escalation, that can in any case be actively deterred. Strategic advantage can be recovered only if strategic literacy is regained. Defence is not escalation. Counterattack is necessary for defence. 5/5

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

1 year

It still baffles me that winning appears off the table as a strategy. What’s so bad about winning? It would restore the European security order on which the West depends and allow more effort to go toward Asia. A frozen conflict ties down resources of all kinds and curtails…

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

The recriminations are mounting up in Russia on the failing war. When asked by State TV what has to be done, the answer comes back fast from a Colonel General and member of the Duma — ‘First, the lying has to stop.’ This will turn into quite an internal struggle in Russia.

Julia Davis

@JuliaDavisNews

2 years

State Duma Defense Committee's head Andrey Kartapolov told a disappointed propagandist Vladimir Solovyov that aside from not having enough uniforms and equipment for its forces, Russia may not have enough munitions to destroy all of Ukraine's infrastructure.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Many wars end with a military solution. The West should ensure that the right side wins. It should not just hope that the wrong side gets bogged down. And it should not permit a diplomatic solution that gives any gains to the wrong side. The right side needs more military aid.

Taras Mishchenko

@tarasmi

2 years

The chancellor of Germany said that a military solution to the war in Ukraine “makes no sense” and urged for a diplomatic solution. I urge @OlafScholz to come to Mariupol and try his “diplomatic solutions” to stop Russian shelling.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

This is a fair accusation. It is unlikely that the rail route will be adapted fast enough to get grain to markets in Africa and Asia or that negotiations will unlock the Black Sea. Putin has shut the Sea. More consideration needs to be given to how the Sea is forcibly re-opened.

Alex Kokcharov

@AlexKokcharov

2 years

#Russia 's maritime blockade of Ukraine’s grain exports is a war crime, according to #EU 's top diplomat Borrell

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

It might be interesting if in the U.K. and EU, a five minute excerpt of Russian state TV were shown on a regular basis. Fair reporting would be to show to Western publics, not just specialists who follow this, what Russian state TV is saying to its public every day #justathought

Julia Davis

@JuliaDavisNews

2 years

Putin's propagandists on state TV casually discuss terrorist acts against Americans and murdering liberal opposition, all of whom they suspect of working with Western intelligence agencies. They openly advocate murdering Ilya Ponomarev, who lives in Kyiv.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Putin’s Russia has displaced a quarter of the Ukrainian population. No one should get excited by a peace process that is being conducted by Russia as ‘war by other means.’ It cannot be permitted to gain war aims through diplomatic pretence. More military aid and sanctions needed.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

The argument that Germany cannot give more arms to Ukraine because it needs them to deter Putin who understands only force is doubly strategically illiterate: assist the country fighting Russia so you don’t have to; and if he only understands force, give Ukraine what it needs.

Minna Ålander 🌻

@minna_alander

2 years

Everyone else: *analysing the ingenious details of Ukrainian counteroffensive, like whoa* German general: “sees no real counteroffensive in Ukraine”

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

‘Special military operation is going according to plan,’ says Putin — So this the plan 👇He has confirmed it.

Golnaz Esfandiari

@GEsfandiari

2 years

Devastating ! Video from our Ukrainian service @radiosvoboda

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

This is weakly argued. Sweden and Finland would be net assets not net liabilities for NATO.

Carnegie Endowment

@CarnegieEndow

2 years

If Sweden and Finland aren’t secure enough with their own armies, then bringing them into NATO might create a major new vulnerability for the alliance just as the chances of conflict with Russia are rising. @CChivvis highlights this dilemma:

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

And some people worry that delivery of better NATO standard equipment to Ukraine would be ‘escalatory.’ The biggest fight on this issue is against strategic illiteracy: Defence is not escalation.

Lucas Tomlinson

@LucasFoxNews

2 years

British intelligence says over 2.5 million Ukrainians, including children, have been forcibly deported to camps inside Russia. That’s the equivalent of emptying Chicago.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

It may be valuable to recall that the West has nuclear weapons too and that principles of deterrence can be made to operate, but only in circumstances where one does not speak only about what one will not do, or cede escalation dominance automatically to the opponent.

Bloomberg

@business

2 years

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warns against open conflict with Russia that could lead to nuclear war

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Assuming this continues, it is also a rebuttal to the evidence-free claim that Ukrainian gains would lead to unacceptable escalation. When Russia has lost a battle it has 1) retreated, 2) changed course, 3) claimed victory anyway or 4) announced a decision to extend 'goodwill'.

François Heisbourg

@FHeisbourg

2 years

Indeed. Surface to sea missiles along the Ukrainian coast forced the 🇷🇺 Black Sea fleet to keep its distance. That plus the recovery of Snake Island did the trick in military terms. Fighting back pays. And the world will benefit as Ukrainian foodstuff is made available again

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

How much of the West will we allow to remain? That is the question, for Russian State TV. The 'precautionary principle' would require the West to take this seriously ...

Julia Davis

@JuliaDavisNews

2 years

Pundit on Russian state TV reports that the question he is asked most frequently by everyday Russians is: "When will all of this end?" State TV experts respond: "Never." They predict: "There will be more special operations," Russia will decide "how much of the West will remain."

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

I don’t see why our major diplomatic or strategic concern should be focused on preventing the ‘humiliation’ of Putin. Keep it simple. This invader needs to be repelled, for he is repellent. Do not treat foreign policy as an esoteric branch of psychiatry. Stratégie Oblige…

Business Ukraine mag

@Biz_Ukraine_Mag

2 years

Russia has destroyed a major Ukrainian grain export terminal in Mykolaiv that plays a crucial role in international food security. This targeted attack is further evidence that Putin is weaponising global famine in a bid to blackmail the international community

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

It is an outrageous strategic fallacy to argue that defence cannot include counterattack against invading forces firing from their own territory. A Russian artillery piece 1 mile inside Ukraine is fair game but if one is firing 1 mile inside Russia it is not? ‘Gentlemen, please.’

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

‘Offensive’ Arms = RETREAT BBC - ‘Ukraine says a significant number of Russian warships in the Black Sea were moved from Crimea further east to the port of Novorossiysk. This comes after Kyiv received further deliveries of longer-range missile systems from its Western allies.’

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Some rhetorical flourishes here from President Zelensky that should rightly find their way into a Dictionary of Wartime Quotations.

Christo Grozev

@christogrozev

2 years

Zelensky to Russia, tonight...

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

1 year

Putin may be hypersensitive to perceived provocation, but he has demonstrated hyper-responsiveness to perceived license. As the West has pedantically debated what it would not do, his room for destructive manoeuvre has grown. He has exploited our fears…3/5

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

1 year

Escalation is what Russia has done. Change the balance of power so that Ukraine can win decisively. Escalation dominance is needed. Russia can’t win a war against the West. Russia already blames the West for its defeats. The West need not be shy to co-author a Ukrainian victory.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Photograph taken at the G20. My contribution to any caption contest: ‘Is this a partnership with no limits, or what…’ I am sure others could do better with this striking image.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

This is not a ‘crisis’, it is a war of aggression in Europe. Ukraine has every UN Article 51 right to ask for whatever it needs to free their country. NATO states should confidently provide that directly as needed and not cede by default ‘escalation dominance’ to Russia.

Josh Rogin

@joshrogin

2 years

Of course, the US should be mindful of needlessly escalating the crisis. But the best way to prevent the war from spilling over is to give the Ukrainians what they need to win. @PostOpinions

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

1 year

Russia has upended the European security order and for months the West has openly worried about the risks of escalation. In the Cold War our mantra was flexible response and escalation dominance. In this hot war we have practised sequential response and shown escalation fear.2/5

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

3 years

The Biden multilateralist catch phrase: ‘America is back’, just does not quite sound right today for some reason.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Some weeks ago @IISS_org analyst @Nigelgd1 wrote that Putin’s aims go beyond Ukraine and that his actions in Ukraine may ‘only be the prelude.’ NATO consultations will need to consider the awful prospect that this may become an Article 5 contingency.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Putin has twice retreated rather than ‘escalated’ in Ukraine. Once when he lost the battle for Kyiv and again when he lost Snake Island. The assumption that Western countries could not maintain both escalation dominance and control in a variety of scenarios is mis-placed.

Eliot A Cohen

@EliotACohen

2 years

US government should give Ukraine ATACMS now. With it, Ukraine can cripple Russian ability to hold on to the land they have seized - by taking out the Kerch bridge, for example, or supply depots in Crimea and yes, Russia. No reason not to, other than unwarranted self-deterrence.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

If Belarus troops deploy to attack N.E. Ukraine then why should NATO states not act? Belarus has changed its constitution to allow nuclear weapons on its territory but there are none there. Western powers should consider preempting the threat to Volyn so as to deter escalation.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

1 year

… and the West has not cashed in on its substantial strategic advantage. Overwhelming conventional force could defeat Russia at this time. The US Secretary of State said in Munich that Ukraine will win because Ukrainians are fighting for their territory and Russians are not. 4/5

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

There will be replies that say this decision is ‘escalatory’ and ‘NATO should not be involved’ and Turkiye’s decision ‘means NATO is now drawn in to WW3.’ States have agency without requiring a NATO badge. A Free and Open Black Sea for licit trade is a legitimate strategic goal.

Samuel Ramani

@SamRamani2

2 years

BREAKING: Turkey detains a Russian cargo ship possessing grain stolen from Ukraine

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Indeed. Ukraine is holding NATO’s front line against what NATO has regarded as its peer competitor: Ukraine expelling Russia from its territory reduces substantially the threat to NATO. The depletion of national stocks to support Ukraine is a vital mission, not a worrying loss.

Nico Lange

@nicolange_

2 years

NATO-GS Stoltenberg: - Lieferung von Waffen an die Ukraine wichtiger als Erfüllung der NATO-Fähigkeitsziele - Wenn Russland nicht gewinnt, stärkt das unsere Sicherheit und Sicherheit der NATO Also: Jetzt mehr liefern, Offensive der Ukraine unterstützen.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

At Madrid summit, NATO should say: 'NATO considers the NATO-Russia Founding Act as having been breached by Russia and is now void, given its disregard for the sovereignty of states and its lack of restraint in its conventional force deployments in Europe.' Can 30 agree to that?

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Russia’s Kalibr attack on Odessa port the day after an agreement is signed with Turkey and the UN to facilitate grain exports is evidence that Putin’s diplomacy is fraudulent in both form and content. The Black Sea is not a Russian lake; it needs forcibly to be re-opened.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Clear strategic assessment. A Norwegian NATO Secretary General, in common with his colleagues from the North of Europe, speaks in precise terms of the threat. Western Europeans must accept that the geo-political centre of gravity in Europe is shifting to the East and North.

Fabrizio Tassinari

@Fatassinari

2 years

“The price we pay is measured in currency. They price they pay is measured in lives lost every day. So we should stop complaining and step up and provide support.”

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

In my view, many people worry that Putin is hyper-sensitive to perceived provocation; the far greater concern is that he is hyper-responsive to perceived license. He must not be told what is his manoeuvre space; instead he must be made to worry that he has none. Deterrence...

Radek Sikorski

@radeksikorski

2 years

No. Strength deters. What provokes is weakness.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

President of the Republic of Finland cites Henry Kissinger maxim in his New Year speech: ‘whenever avoidance of war has been the primary objective of a group of powers, the international system has been at the mercy of its most ruthless member.’

President of the Republic of Finland Sauli Niinistö’s New Year’s Speech on 1 January 2022 -...

My fellow citizens, “My perhaps somewhat outdated understanding of the mutual relations between us people is that we need more good will, more willingness to understand one another and more...

www.presidentti.fi

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Exactly. The strategically wise, and ethically correct thing to do, after the Ukrainian armed forces have auditioned before Western leaders their military resolve and talents, is immediately to change radically the balance of power in their favour, so this conflict can end soon.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

It is quite something to say one can’t send tanks to Ukraine when it is fighting a war with Russia in case: what?! Germany needs them for a NATO obligation? That would arise soon if Russia gets to Germany. Better to stop them earlier: NATO needs forward defence - supply Ukraine.

Ulrike Franke

@RikeFranke

2 years

“…we have found that it simply does not work” because Germany would not be able to fulfill its national defense obligations as well as its obligations in the NATO military alliance if it were to give away tanks from its active military force,”

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

This young person just wants to be in her rental flat in Kyiv, working in her chosen profession, and seeing her friends. Putin has dictated that she can’t do that because Ukraine needs to be ‘de-nazified.’ The European security order will be restored when she can safely go home.

Hardeep Matharu

@Hardeep_Matharu

2 years

This woman changed a part of me when I first saw this from @BylineTV . I will never forget her. "I don't feel myself anymore. I'm a different person. I was a journalist, very proud of myself & glamorous. Now I'm a refugee" Everything can become nothing.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

1 year

Interesting that in this exchange the Russian hawks, who presumably were ‘provoked’ by the decision of various former Warsaw Pact states to join NATO out of fear of Russia, argue that the military capacities of the ‘collective West’ are exaggerated. So what’s the problem then?

Julia Davis

@JuliaDavisNews

1 year

Meanwhile in Russia: sane voices who say that Putin's military adventure should be put to an end ASAP are contradicted by rabid propagandists who allege that both the military might and the unity of the Western countries exist only on paper.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Yes. Defence is not escalation. It just has to be repeated until strategic illiteracy wanes definitively and irreversibly. @Kasparov63

Edward Hunter Christie

@EHunterChristie

2 years

Defence is not escalation

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Ok, I know this is your special subject, but really?

The Washington Times

@WashTimes

2 years

John Kerry urges Putin to not let Ukraine invasion distract from combating climate change

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

The first point in this tweet thread by @JosepBorrellF is vitally important. It is the EU acknowledging the inescapable fact that this war actually requires a military solution.

Josep Borrell Fontelles

@JosepBorrellF

2 years

Touched by the resilience, determination and hospitality of @ZelenskyyUA & @Denys_Shmyhal . I return with a clear to do list: 1. This war will be won on the battlefield. Additional €500 million from the #EPF are underway. Weapon deliveries will be tailored to Ukrainian needs.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

This is a strange debate. Defeat is humiliation. You don’t aim not to defeat because the aggressor may be humiliated. What kind of military or diplomatic strategy is that? Once in a war aim to win. Humiliation can be dealt with afterwards with what is usually a successor regime.

Ryan Evans

@EvansRyan202

2 years

I can understand why this comment makes people angry, but I suspect Macron is drawing on a specific set of historical memories, namely the role of humiliation in Germany after the Great War that paved the way not just for the rise of Hitler, but for World War II.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Well done. The foundational error of the 'negotiate now' fraternity is the presumption that this war is principally about specific contested territory, so a territorial compromise can end it. It is not, so it can't.

Sam Greene

@samagreene

2 years

Six months of war. Six months of people calling for negotiations with Moscow. Six months of futility. A quick 🧵 in response to the latest from Anatol Lieven. /1

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Yes, the domestic legislation needs to be passed in the US, Canada, U.K., EU and Switzerland to move from freezing to seizing Russia’s state assets. Putin’s war chest needs to be turned into Ukraine’s reparations fund. And that work should start now.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

I imagine that he looked in the mirror as he drafted this speech and wrote down what he saw.

Julia Davis

@JuliaDavisNews

2 years

This is rich coming from Putin, who thinks he’s Peter the Great reincarnate, taking back historical territories.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Exactly, which is why the West must change the balance of power definitively in Ukraine’s favour and stop worrying about what might be ‘escalatory.’ An alliance (NATO), that had ‘flexible response’ at the core of its strategy in the Cold War needs to recover its muscle memory.

Shashank Joshi

@shashj

2 years

This is a really sobering conclusion in what it implies for Ukraine & its partners (and Russians). I lean towards view that Putin’s military aim is Donbas as route to settlement, but I have low confidence. Russia could later choose to attack Kyiv again or escalate in other ways.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

NATO leaders have consistently said that they would defend every inch of NATO territory. This must include maritime frontiers. Romania’s and Bulgaria’s frontiers at sea are now highly exposed. Western navies should seek permission to enter Black Sea for humanitarian purposes.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

The killing of Abe Shinzo today is tragic. His death and the manner of its arrival is a shock. All of us @IISS_org extend our condolences to his family and to the people of #Japan

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Basic facts: -It’s not a human right to travel to the EU -Finland borders the Schengen area and has responsibilities to the rest of it. -Russia has invaded Ukraine to absorb it. -Putin controls public opinion. -His imperialist goals are not shaped by the level of public support.

Mohammad Ali Shabani

@mashabani

2 years

@chipmanj Really surprised that collective punishment is embraced in this regressive manner in 2022, with little regard for the long-term consequences. How can it be irrelevant for Europe whether Putin gains the support of another 30M Russians?

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

The judgement is evidence-based. Russia has attacked the largest European country. Ukraine has a UN Article 51 right of self defence and others have the legal right to assist Ukraine directly to exercise that right. Ukraine is battling Russia; others can accelerate its defeat.

Mark Gubrud

@mgubrud

2 years

@chipmanj @kajakallas When they tell us we must go to war with Russia? 𝗡𝗢! We know all ths same facts, and can understand that their "different experience" makes them hate and fear Russia the same way many Latin Americans do the US. And that this biases their judgment. It is not sage expert advice.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

A Pentagon official on possible outcomes of Russia's war against Ukraine: 'It is best to admit that there are a range of possibilities and try to think through how we would deal with each...' Why not help Ukraine counter-attack to win? Escalate defence to win, so Putin retreats.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

On this point, my vote on the jury is: Russian use of a non-strategic nuclear weapon should result in an overwhelming conventional response by the West on Ukraine's side to eject Russia from all Ukraine that could include attacks on Russian positions in Russia. No need for nukes.

Bruno Tertrais

@BrunoTertrais

2 years

(6/10) But public signals suggest to Russia that there would be no nuclear response. If so, is it a good thing (it would not be credible to agitate such a threat, and public opinions would panic)... or is it a bad thing (Putin sees us as having no guts)? The jury is out.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

1 year

Please retweet if you did NOT expect as a defence, national security, or international relations expert that in 2023 you would have seriously to display your longstanding interest in — and knowledge of — balloons.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Remember those un-strategic debates in March about why one could only send defensive arms to Ukraine because ‘offensive’ arms would be ‘provocative’ or ‘escalatory’? This is why counter-attack is good. It makes the invader retreat. Time to stop saying defence is escalatory.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Brilliant piece, with this ‘kicker’: ‘If you are a good comedian in the U.S., you can have a late-night show. If you are a good comedian in Ukraine, you can destroy Russia.’ Why Ukraine Is the Best Place to be a Comedian - The Atlantic

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

This is analytically weak. There is no 'very fine line between appeasement ... and apocalypse'; there is a huge yawning space between these two extremes which can be filled by incremental increases in military pressure that can assure victory. Escalation step by step can work.

Mark Gubrud

@mgubrud

2 years

@vs_1944 @Marco_UKII @chipmanj @kajakallas I get it, Russia bad. The trouble with "punishment" is that Russia can punish, too. We have a very dangerous situation. Honestly I don't know if we can survive it but the way to do that is to walk a very fine and tortuous line between twin pitfalls of appeasement and apocalypse.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

This by @IISS_org is worth a number of RTs, I would have thought, by all those interested in Euro-Atlantic security -- IISS - Belarus seeks to amend its constitution to host Russian nuclear weapons

Belarus seeks to amend its constitution to host Russian nuclear weapons

In December, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko went on Russian state television to offer to host Russian nuclear weapons on Belarus’s territory. This will be made possible by a little-noticed...

www.iiss.org

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

The simplest reply to this question is that: ‘Every country has a legal right to provide such military means as are necessary to assist Ukraine exercise it’s UN Article 51 right to self-defence.’

Lucy Fisher

@LOS_Fisher

2 years

NEW: Nato is not in a proxy war with Russia, the Defence Secretary insists. Ben Wallace tells @TimesRadio : 'It's not the case. It's what Moscow would like us to believe... to use as a justification' for invasion UK military aid to Ukraine is legal 'mutual self defence', he says

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

I urge you to stop being so 'NATO-centric' in your analysis. Self-Defence and Collective Self-Defence are covered by UN Article 51. Western states in their public narrative should have emphasised from the start that their military support was based in these UN Charter rights.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

India does not need to ‘choose sides.’ But it can take a position in favour of the rules-based order and against unprovoked aggression against another country with maximalist goals. Russia’s strategic currency is weakening. Strategic hedging requires active portfolio management.

Brahma Chellaney

@Chellaney

2 years

The United States values its strategic autonomy. So should India. Undermining New Delhi's time-tested ties with Moscow would make India dependent on America, whose unpredictability is legendary, which even American analysts acknowledge.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

No one is threatening the Russian state.

Greg R. Lawson

@ConservaWonk

2 years

@chipmanj And where exactly does escalation go? We are closing in on threatening the Russian state itself. Russia is not threatening America, at least not yet. But it is getting closer. They have greater incentives 2 escalate.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Dear @shashj , this is to confirm that @IISS_org has carefully noted your recommendation, expressed as anticipatory disappointment, and we will soon be assessing how The Military Balance records different types of special forces, including those that have dual use.

Shashank Joshi

@shashj

2 years

I’m going to be very disappointed if the next edition of @IISS_org Military Balance doesn’t lay out the order of battle for Ukrainian farmers.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Leaving aside the important detail that even the security concerns Russia cites are illegitimate. Just because you enunciate a concern does not make it legitimate.

Bruno Tertrais

@BrunoTertrais

2 years

Unfortunately the "Russian legitimate security concerns" narrative remains a pervasive element of the analytical framework many Western leaders maintain - to this day.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

If, as the U.K. defence chief asserts, Russia has ‘already lost the war’ in Ukraine, then it is hardly escalatory to replenish Ukraine’s tank losses or to further support Kiev militarily completely to repel the invaders.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Territorial concessions would not have prevented the invasion. Putin had said Ukraine was not a nation. When he began 'his special military operation', his intent was to rid the nation he did not recognise of its leaders. Putin's diplomacy is fraudulent in both form & substance.

Henri Schmit

@Schmit_Henri

2 years

@chipmanj Please note: Not Macron, but Zelensky & Biden both (according to the western press) mentioned territorial concessions to Russia. Why didn’t they follow Macron’s advice & offered their territorial compromise ideas to Putin before the hideous Russian invasion?

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

1 year

‘Germany’s vulnerability to economic corruption is systemic. And that is a security risk — not just to Europe, but to the western alliance. Germany needs a parliamentary commission of inquiry. It is time for a comprehensive reckoning.’ Strong stuff!

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

3 years

Interesting photograph from four years ago.

VP Biden (Archived)

@VP44

7 years

I just met with @VP -elect Pence at the @WhiteHouse to offer our support for a smooth, seamless transition of power:

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

@andersostlund Western navies should be permitted to enter the Black Sea to ensure it is 'free and open' for vital commercial trade and especially the export of food supplies so essential for the Middle East and North Africa. See Article 18 (d) of the Montreux Convention on Humanitarian Purpose

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

1 year

Exactly: ‘Should Western leaders, through their passivity or reluctance, bring about a cease-fire that leaves Russia with Ukrainian territory under its control, they would disgrace themselves as much the French and British leaders did at Munich in 1938—and with less excuse.’

Eliot A Cohen

@EliotACohen

1 year

Language matters. It is not enough to say we want Ukraine to defend itself - we want it to win. It is not enough to say we want to stop Russia - we want to defeat it. And that means a lot more fighting and the liberation of occupied Ukrainian territories.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

If verified, further proof that a Russian war aim is literally to strip Ukrainians of their nationality. This is not just an assault on territorial sovereignty, but on a nation.

Olena Halushka

@OlenaHalushka

2 years

#Mariupol deputy mayor Andryushchenko: for the first time yesterday the occupiers officially stole the citizenship of a Ukrainian kid in Mariupol. They issued the first birth certificate on the form of the moscow's proxy "dnr"

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

8 months

Imagine if this had begun 12 months ago. Defence is not escalation.

FRANCE 24

@FRANCE24

8 months

🔴 Live: US to begin training Ukraine F-16 pilots in September ➡️

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

3 years

Will France offer to work on nuclear propulsion with India? There may be a demand pull here…👇

Shekhar Gupta

@ShekharGupta

3 years

'Australia may have opened the door for India. Like Rafale, a submarine deal is critical' Lt General Prakash Menon @prakashmenon51 , director of Strategic Studies Programme at Takshashila Institution, writes #ThePrintOpinion

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Answer: change the conventional balance of power radically in Ukraine’s favour and Ukraine then wins. Sleep well.

Elon Musk

@elonmusk

2 years

@EvaFoxU I’ve been up all night trying to think of any possible way to de-escalate this war

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

1 year

Why I worry about the loss of the West’s political-military muscle memory: -Defence not escalatory -Defence requires counter-attack -It is right to change the balance of power to restore a balance of power -Russia must be made to fear the risks of escalation -Called: deterrence

Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز

@RymMomtaz

1 year

Macron re:transferring Leclerc tanks to Ukraine: => not excluding it, a collective question => 3 criteria 1/that it not be escalatory 2/looking at UKR maintenance capacity+training time to use tanks 3/not weaken FR defense capabilities "working on it in coming days and weeks"

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

1 year

This: an appalling headline by the NYT. Defence is not escalation; counterattack is necessary to defence, and attacking Russian positions in Russia that attack civilians and infrastructure in Ukraine is strategically necessary and ethically justified. Kyiv has no case to answer.

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

1 year

Yes, this is really bad journalism from @nytimes . It deserves a correction.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

If the West says Putin must fail and Ukraine must win, then ethically and strategically it is best to do everything possible to help Ukraine win at speed. Playing for a draw is not a strategy.

Andriy Yermak

@AndriyYermak

2 years

Рамштайн-3 має стати днем, коли бажання пошуку компромісів з тим, хто обирає насилля, зміниться розумінням важливості сили для досягнення миру і побудови нового світового порядку. Більше важкої зброї та оперативне навчання наших військових. Так переможемо🇺🇦

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

Or, cite the ‘responsibility to protect’ doctrine and threaten directly to attack any ship in the Black Sea that targets civilians. No direct threat to Russian territory or sovereignty but a clear defence of both life and values and a proper exercise of our UN Article 51 rights.

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

What is shocking here is the admission that so much of Canadian foreign policy was based on diaspora domestic politics. That is the surest way to invite the worst form of interference in one’s own affairs by states who don’t recognise the separate citizenship of their ‘own kind’.

John Blaxland SFHEA FRSN

@JohnBlaxland1

2 years

Fascinating: "We’ve been badly surprised’: Former ambassador David Mulroney on Canada’s changing relationship with China"

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

A military plan must be developed for a Western coalition of the willing to conduct a special operation into the Black Sea to de-mine, protect the coastline, and safely escort vessels carrying grain exports to the Global South. This would be a defensive and humanitarian mission.

Timothy Snyder

@TimothyDSnyder

2 years

Russia is planning to starve Asians and Africans in order to win its war in Europe. This is a new level of colonialism, and the latest chapter of hunger politics. 16/16

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

3 years

Hybrid warfare requires a suite of innovative techniques, some based on traditional technology. 👇

David Begnaud

@DavidBegnaud

3 years

Flawlessly executed

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Sir John Chipman IISS

@chipmanj

2 years

I have medium to (very) high confidence in my assessment that Russia’s diplomacy on a Ukraine war settlement is fraudulent. #RussiaUkraineConflict

Oleksiy Sorokin

@mrsorokaa

2 years

⚡️Defence Ministry now says that Russia may be using peace talks to catch a breath, and reinforce its ground troops prior to launching a new offensive.

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