Ben Moll @ben_moll Twitter profile

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Ben Moll

2 years

Thread: a collection of concrete cases of substitution & demand reduction in the energy crisis. Economic theory predicts that, as prices rise, households & firms reduce demand and substitute. We're starting to see more and more such cases I'll collect these here as we go along.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

10 months

I taught a new undergraduate macroeconomics course @LSEEcon . Goals: 1. *Modern* macro = microfoundations rather than IS-LM 2. Simple enough that undergrads get it 3. But still end up somewhere reasonably close to research frontier All materials here

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

Just released: new study showing 1. The German economy coped well with end of Russian gas supplies even avoiding recession 2. Germany would have also withstood an earlier 1 April 2022 import stop Joint with @MSchularick @GeorgZachmann @ECON_tribute

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

We put together a team of macro-, micro- and energy economists to think about the question: what would be the effects on the German economy of a stop of energy imports from Russia? In short: moderate, especially in combination with the right policy response. 1/

Moritz Kuhn

@kuhnmo

2 years

"What are the macroeconomic & distributional consequences for Germany of a stop of Russian energy imports?" Our @ECONtribute policy brief provides an answer @BachmannRudi @DBaqaee @christianbaye13 @kuhnmo @andreasloeschel @ben_moll @APeichl #KarenPittel @MSchularick

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

First forecast for 🇩🇪 economy after Nordstream 1 shutdown. GDP growth predicted by @kielinstitute : - 2022: +1.4% - 2023: -0.7% - 2024: +1.7% "Largest economic crisis since the end of WWII" with "millions of lost jobs" here we come! *Brudermüller/Scholz

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

Here is my little Bob Lucas anecdote. It's about Bob's incredible gift as a writer and his generosity toward his students. It's the fall of 2009 and I'm a grad student at the University of Chicago. Bob is on my thesis committee.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

An embarrassment for the entire economics profession.

Francis Scarr

@francis_scarr

1 year

US economist Jeffrey Sachs was back on Solovyov Live this morning

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Please endorse this proposal by some outstanding French economists for an EU-wide: 1. complete oil import stop 2. tax on Russian gas 3. together with a cushion for low-income people Also non-economists can endorse. Information how to on website.

Stop financing War

The financial and economic sanctions so far imposed on Russia to force it to end its invasion of Ukraine have not yet had the desired impact. Cutting off the financing of the Russian aggression is...

www.stopfinancingwar.com

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Deutschland's Presse in England heute morgen. Übrigens nicht die Regenbogenpresse sondern die altehrwürdig @thetimes .

Germany ‘breaks its promise’ to give Kyiv more heavy weapons

Germany has reduced military support for Ukraine “to a minimum” prompting accusations that it has reneged on its pledge to provide heavy weaponry. Following Rus

www.thetimes.co.uk

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Over the last decades, many asset valuations have gone through the roof. This had large effects on the distribution of wealth. But what does it mean for welfare? Was this a huge shift of resources toward the wealthy? Or just welfare-irrelevant "paper gains"? 🧵 on a new paper:

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Almost 10(!) years after starting to work on this project it's great to finally see this in print :-) 1/

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

5 years

The HANK literature in one slide: this graph summarizes the rich variety of transmission mechanisms through which monetary policy affects consumption and the corresponding papers (I used it in a discussion). We've come a long way since the representative-agent Euler equation!

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

3 years

Do wealthier households save a larger share of their incomes than poorer ones? I suspect most people's prior is that the answer is "yes." Turns out that's incorrect, or rather: things are considerably more subtle, at least in our Norwegian wealth tax registry data. A short 🧵:

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 month

Here are my slides: Thanks so much for listening and for the great discussion and comments!

Michael McMahon

@mcmahonecon

1 month

The ⁦ @EJ_RES ⁩ lecture being given by ⁦ @ben_moll ⁩ after introduction by ⁦ @FpjPortier ⁩ HANK: 8 lessons and a challenge

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

6 months

So proud of my PhD student Kotia and his partner Utkarsh who have been fighting for the legalization of same-sex marriage in front of the Indian Supreme Court. They lost the battle but will win the war. Huge congratulations on your engagement, Kotia and Utkarsh!

Kotia

@AnanyaKotia

6 months

Yesterday hurt. Today, @utkarsh__saxena and I went back to the court that denied our rights, and exchanged rings. So this week wasn't about a legal loss, but our engagement. We'll return to fight another day.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

Just released: 🇩🇪 GDP figures for 2022: - very robust overall growth of +1.9% - strikingly, even for 2022 Q4, GDP is estimated not to decline - ... which would mean positive growth / no decline in every single quarter in 2022!

Statistisches Bundesamt

@destatis

1 year

Das preisbereinigte #Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist im Jahr 2022 um 1,9 % gestiegen. Trotz des Kriegs in der Ukraine und der Energiekrise hat sich die deutsche Wirtschaft im dritten Jahr der Corona-Pandemie weiter erholt. Mehr dazu: #BIP2022

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

6 months

Extremely honored to receive the Calvó-Armengol International Prize in Economics. It is named in memory of Toni Calvó-Armengol, who passed away tragically young at 37 in 2007. Even though his life was cut so short, Toni did important work on networks and social interactions.

Barcelona School of Economics

@bse_barcelona

6 months

Congratulations to Prof. Benjamin Moll, who was recently announced as the recipient of the VIII edition of the Calvó-Armengol Prize. Moll was chosen for his innovative contributions to the role of heterogeneity. Read more here:

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Focusing on gas storage levels distracts from what really matters: saving gas! An analogy: Gas storage is like a small water reservoir. This reservoir is fed by some large rivers (inflows) and balances a large, fluctuating water demand, say for showering & irrigation (outflows)

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

Now it's official: "not even a recession" in Germany despite the cutoff from Russian gas and all the resulting doomsday scenarios.

Statistisches Bundesamt

@destatis

1 year

Das #Bruttoinlandsprodukt war im 1. Quartal 2023 gegenüber dem 4. Quartal 2022 unverändert (0,0 %). Zum Jahresbeginn nahmen sowohl die privaten als auch die staatlichen Konsumausgaben ab. Positive Impulse kamen von den Investitionen und den Exporten: #BIP

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

3 years

#EconTwitter hivemind: what are your favorite papers combining “causal” micro estimates (say from DiD or RCT) with a general-equilibrium macro model to answer an interesting macro question? This is for my PhD teaching so the easier to read the better. Thanks in advance!

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

Given some of the reactions to this thread, let me remind you of some of the doomsday predictions around the time we wrote our original paper. Our key message below is not: "everything is great in Germany". Instead it is: "those doomsday predictions were far off the mark."

Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

Just released: new study showing 1. The German economy coped well with end of Russian gas supplies even avoiding recession 2. Germany would have also withstood an earlier 1 April 2022 import stop Joint with @MSchularick @GeorgZachmann @ECON_tribute

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

9 months

Sanctions work! Forcing this kind of choice on Putin has been the argument for sanctioning Russian energy exports all along.

The Economist

@TheEconomist

9 months

In all likelihood, the civilian economy will take the pain. Rising inflation and higher interest rates will weaken the purchasing power of ordinary Russians, forcing them to buy fewer foreign goods

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

3 years

When a small minority of loud economists attacks researchers from other disciplines, it makes us all look bad. And allows the media to pit economists against epidemiologists in this unhelpful way A short thread:

Why relations between economists and epidemiologists have been testy

Too often, economists are reluctant collaborators

www.economist.com

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

3 years

Very nice overview and agenda-setting paper: "From Micro to Macro Development" by Paco Buera, Joe Kaboski and @townsend_rm

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Putin cutting gas to 🇩🇪 and other 🇪🇺 countries raises many important questions: 1. How to best dampen economic costs? 2. Given measures to date, will costs be smaller or larger than estimates from March/April? 3. What does this mean for Russia and the war? A summary thread:

Dr. Benjamin L. Schmitt🇺🇦

@BLSchmitt

2 years

🇺🇸🇪🇺UPDATE: Putin has fully or partially cut gas to ◾️Poland ◾️Bulgaria ◾️Finland ◾️Netherlands ◾️Denmark ◾️Germany ◾️Italy ◾️France ◾️Austria ◾️Czech Republic ◾️Slovakia The list grows longer as some admit what’s been clear for years: Russian energy is #NotJustACommercialDeal

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

7 months

"The Power of Substitution: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect" with @MSchularick and @GeorgZachmann Presentation tomorrow at 11:30am ET at @BrookingsEcon conference. Live stream Draft: Slides:

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

3 years

Excited to announce new seminar series "Micro & Macro Implications of Household Behaviour and Financial Decision-Making" w @R_Blundell_UCL Hansman @levell_peter @TRamadorai & Simpson Kick-off March 19, J Campbell @M_De_Nardi @hamishlow_econ @ProfJAParker

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

The important thing is to have a quantitative debate based on data, empirics & models rather than people's "gut feelings". In the spirit of elevating the debate, here are some thoughts, particularly for journalists as well as politicians & citizens in favor of fact-based policy:

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

4 years

I wrote some lecture notes on "Lockdowns in SIR Models" and figured I'd share them here. With just a phase diagram and a simple closed-form solution for the optimal trajectory one can derive many results that have been floating around in the policy debate.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

3 years

Good to know Italy's (likely) next prime minister knows his matrix Riccati equations, transversality conditions and current-value Hamiltonians!

Beatrice Cherrier

@Undercoverhist

3 years

Draghi's dissertation

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

When people run out of arguments, they start saying things that aren't quite true. Here is the Head of the Scholz Chancellery @W_Schmidt_ talking about our work on an import stop of Russian energy and this is exactly what happens around min 26:00 1/

Panel: Europe after Putin’s war on Ukraine

Keynote (English):Timothy Garton Ash, Professor of European Studies,University of Oxford (Zuschaltung)Panel (English):- Haki Abazi, Member of the Parliament ...

www.youtube.com

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Reports not yet confirmed but, by the looks of things, Putin is winning at energy sanctions poker. Likely with the help of many European companies like @eni @omv @UniperGermany @BASF eager to protect their profits.

Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Putin is playing sanctions poker, trying to undermine both quick oil embargo & EU unity on gas payments. Massive test for EU, especially with companies like @UniperGermany @eni @omv happy to play along Cautious optimism that @EU_Commission is stepping up

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Deutschland ist zu sehr auf die Speicher-Füllstände fixiert. Viel wichtiger: Gas sparen! Faustregel: - 1% Speicherstand bringt 0,3% weniger nötiges Sparen - umgekehrt: 1% Sparen ist 3,5% Speicherstand wert Sparen ist also quasi mehr als 3 mal so wichtig wie die Speicherstände.

Bundesnetzagentur

@bnetza

2 years

Lagebericht #Bundesnetzagentur 08.08.22 (14 Uhr): - #Gasversorgung in 🇩🇪 im Moment stabil. - Aktuelle Speicher-Füllstände: 71,99 %, Rehden 48,96%. - Gasflüsse aus der Nord Stream 1 derzeit bei etwa 20 % der Maximalleistung. Details im Bericht▶️ @BMWK

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

4 years

Want some insight into the evolution of macro but weren’t around in the 70s & 80s? Read Tom Sargent’s 1979/1987 “Macroeconomic Theory” (1st/2nd edn). h/t @GregWKaplan for recommending it! Intro and ToC: So many gems! These are the first two chapters:

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

What are the main lessons HANK models have taught us thus far? @GregWKaplan @glviolante and I aim to explain this in simple terms in the current @IMFNews Finance&Development magazine by laying out what we view as the four main lessons of HANK models.

IMF

@IMFNews

1 year

How new economic models can help policymakers better understand the effects of their inflation-taming measures, in F&D.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Standard consumption models do not distinguish between durable & non-durable goods & instead assume a notional unified consumption flow. But in empirical work & policy discussions, this is often not the key variable & we instead care about expenditure including on durables. 1/

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

In our import stop paper we emphasize that it makes a big difference how much people and firms can substitute for Russian energy inputs. How might such substitution work in concrete terms? A new supplement to our paper has some more thoughts Thread:

Moritz Kuhn

@kuhnmo

2 years

"What are the macroeconomic & distributional consequences for Germany of a stop of Russian energy imports?" Our @ECONtribute policy brief provides an answer @BachmannRudi @DBaqaee @christianbaye13 @kuhnmo @andreasloeschel @ben_moll @APeichl #KarenPittel @MSchularick

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

3 years

Good article in @TheEconomist on how central banks are paying more and more attention to the effects of monetary policy on inequality and how some of them are starting to work with HANK models.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

3 years

I absolutely love this by Bob Lucas on schools of thought in economics: "When you are in the middle of doing research it's a paper-by-paper, problem-by-problem kind of thing. You don't say 'I am a school and here is what my school is going to do'."

Beatrice Cherrier

@Undercoverhist

3 years

2/ (by de Vroey and Galbacs , this paper by Boianovsky offers good wrap-up ) A few points: Lucas said he was pushed by Phelps to move to general equilibrium Combination of modeling tricks is what mattered:

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

To complement @LionHirth 's excellent explainer on the proposal of Germany's gas commission, here is a graphical illustration. Below is the graph I want to get to in the end to make a few points. The thread below builds up to it slowly.

Lion Hirth

@LionHirth

2 years

Germany's "gas commission", a body of experts and stakeholders, has published recommendations how to ease the burden for citizens and industry. Core to this is a mechanism to financially support gas consumers. What exactly is the "break on gas prices"? (sorry for the name)👇

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

Liebe @tagesthemen @CarenMiosga , lieber @hjtenhagen @Finanztip , das ist leider einfach falsch: es wird nicht pauschal die Gasrechnung vom Dezember bezahlt. Korrekte Erklärung im nächsten tweet.

Kilian de Ridder

@deridderkilian

1 year

@ben_moll Hier ein Neuer Kandidat für die Sammlung der Misskommunikationen der Gaspreisbremse: Auch in den Tagesthemen wurde der Dezemberzuschlag nicht verstanden / als Rechnungsübernahme fehlkommuniziert

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

3 years

OK I'll bite :-) Off the top of my head, here are 6 reasons (in somewhat random order) why a heterogeneous agent model allows you do more than "just starting from the MPC>>0 and then going forward from there": (I'm sure there are many others -- what else?)

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

I love this paper:

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

5 months

New study on China decoupling using similar approach to our work on the Russian gas cut-off. Punchline: our results provide a rationale for embarking on gradual de-risking trajectory to avoid a much more costly cold turkey decoupling dictated by geopolitical events Here is why:

Kiel Institute (IfW Kiel)

@kielinstitute

5 months

An abrupt halt to trade with #China would cause 🇩🇪's economy to shrink by 5% in the short run. The slump is comparable to that following the financial crisis or the COVID crisis. 👉This is the result of a simulation study led by the Kiel Institute. In the medium to long term, the…

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

Now that the data for the EU economy are starting to come out, it’s worth looking back at some of the most absurd things “economists” have written last year. I’ll start with this one. Favorite part: “Take precautionary measures. Stock cash, food, water, …” Can anyone top it?

Tuomas Malinen

@mtmalinen

2 years

I am telling you people that the situation in #Europe is much worse than many understand. We are essentially on the brink of another banking crisis, a collapse of our industrial base and households, and thus on the brink of the collapse of our economies. Short thread. 1/4

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

The German Council of Economic Experts @SVR_Wirtschaft with a very well done assessment of an import stop. They note lots of uncertainties & caveats (as they should). But if I'm reading this correctly, conclusion = low single digit GDP loss. I also love this summary table:

Lars P Feld

@Lars_Feld

2 years

Bravo, @SVR_Wirtschaft für diese überzeugenden Analysen im Konjunkturupdate und insbesondere in Kasten 3 zum Wegfall russischer Rohstofflieferungen.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

Nerd alert: very interesting new paper exploring the relative benefits of continuous- and discrete-time solution methods for solving variations of the income fluctuation problem by Tom Phelan and Keyvan Eslami.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Nice overview paper on "Heterogeneity & Monetary Policy" by @bankofcanada economists Alves, @cdbusta Guo, Kartashova, Lee, Pugh, See, Terajima & Ueberfeldt Particularly interesting: the Canadian micro data work assessing different transmission mechanisms

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

3 years

What's heterogeneous-agent macro and why is it useful? Natalie Rickard and I wrote a piece for @EconObservatory that aims to explain this to a lay audience. Also includes some thoughts on the evolution of macro and the purpose of macro models.

How are economic models adapting to rising inequality and the pandemic? - Economics Observatory

Over the past 15 years economic models have evolved to place the differences between individuals at their heart. This new breed of model is helping us understand the implications of rising inequali...

www.economicsobservatory.com

Economics Observatory

@EconObservatory

3 years

NEW on Economics Observatory: How are economic models adapting to rising inequality and the pandemic? from @ben_moll ( @LSEEcon ) and Natalie Rickard ( @LBS ), . #EconTwitter

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

3 years

Here are the references in this thread Illustrates increasing popularity of this "micro-to-macro" approach and breadth of topics it has been applied to. Thanks to my two predoc RAs @AYCouturier and Rui Sousa for compiling it!

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

4 years

Empirically a large chunk of increasing wealth inequality is due to changing asset prices. What does simple economic theory say about the welfare consequences of such asset price changes? Do they also increase "welfare inequality"? In short: it depends.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

3 years

Very much looking forward to this Friday! I'll post notes here (still work in progress): As background, here are my 1st-year PhD materials Matlab, Python, Julia codes:

CEPR

@cepr_org

3 years

This week's lectures of the #STEG Virtual Course Tomorrow 16:00 BST @mushfiq_econ @Yale presenting: Migration and risk Livestream: Friday 16:00 BST @ben_moll @LSEEcon presenting: Heterogeneous agents models and methods Livestream:

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

2% recession in 2022, 1.5% extra inflation following an immediate cold turkey import stop. Also @bundesbank finds no economic calamity or anything even remotely resembling "mass unemployment & poverty." Germany could stop the money flowing to Putin. But we simply do not want to.

Deutsche Bundesbank

@bundesbank

2 years

#Monatsbericht : Embargo russischer Energieexporte könnte deutsche #Wirtschaft deutlich schwächen. Den Szenariorechnungen zufolge könnte das reale #BIP kurzfristig um bis zu rund 5 Prozent niedriger ausfallen als in der März-Prognose der #EZB angelegt.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Good visualization showing how Germany, the richest country in Europe, is falling short when it comes to supporting Ukraine.

Christoph Trebesch

@Ch_Trebesch

2 years

In percent of donor GDP, Eastern European countries stand out as particularly generous

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

Out of all the bullshit critiques of our March import stop paper, this is my favorite to date: Did you know that our paper is ... wait for it... inconsistent with thermodynamics?!? But then so is all of "neoclassical economics". Damn!

Michael Hüther

@michael_huether

1 year

Weitere Lektüre für die Vertreter des abrupten Gas-Embargos im März.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

When I step into his office, Bob hands me back a printout of my paper with BRIGHT RED handwriting all over it. Here it is (yes I scanned & saved it) but imagine it in bright red & many more pages. He says "Pretty good overall but there's some room for improvement in the writing"

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

Third, a parting thought: There's good economics in which households & firms reduce demand and substitute as prices rise, demand curves are downward sloping, and modern capitalist economies adapt. If someone tells you otherwise, it's bad economics. Simple as that.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

3 years

I finally read this & thought the following was interesting: exercises quite similar to this ("saving rates rise with income, hence inequality increases aggregate saving") were a prime motivation for Friedman to develop the permanent income hypothesis in the 1950s. 1/

Atif Mian

@AtifRMian

3 years

Amir Sufi presenting our new paper on inequality and the interest rate at the Jackson Hole symposium Bottom line: Rise in inequality is a powerful reason for the fall in interest rates, and demographics not as much

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

Best summary of Bob Lucas' contributions to macroeconomics I've seen. Key point: it's not about rational expectations, instead it's about microfoundations and general equilibrium.

Ivan Werning

@IvanWerning

1 year

"Lucas Miracles" is a brief appreciation of the contributions of Robert E. Lucas Jr to macroeconomics. You can find it here The title is explained at the end.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

I wrote up the thread below as a short paper, incorporating some feedback received here (thanks!) ... with the hope that this will contribute to finally killing the "gas storage myth" and focus the debate on what actually matters: using less gas.

Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Focusing on gas storage levels distracts from what really matters: saving gas! An analogy: Gas storage is like a small water reservoir. This reservoir is fed by some large rivers (inflows) and balances a large, fluctuating water demand, say for showering & irrigation (outflows)

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

4 years

One of the nicest examples I've seen of a HANK model helping to guide policy: an analysis of the Fed's new average inflation targeting strategy by @FedResearch economists @laurafeiveson @julielhotchkiss and others

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Exactly a month ago, @MSchularick @kuhnmo @christianbaye13 & I wrote this on “Why doing nothing will cost 🇩🇪 much more in the end” Not included on our list: the cost to our reputation in the world @Bundeskanzler ’s inaction, even on very feasible oil embargo, is an embarrassment

Moritz Schularick

@MSchularick

2 years

Unser op-ed ⁦ @DIEZEIT ⁩ ⁦in dem wir erklären, warum nichts tun am Ende teurer ist. ⁦ @ben_moll ⁩ ⁦ @christianbaye13 ⁩ ⁦ @kuhnmo ⁩ ⁦ @ECON_tribute ⁩

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

2. @BASF can apparently substitute by producing ammonia (which is used in fertilizer production) in the U.S. rather than in Germany. So the substitution via imports can even happen *within* the same firm.

BASF’s Antwerp, US ammonia output could offset potential shutdown in Germany - bank

Individual news pages

www.icis.com

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

4 years

Here are the slides from yesterday's presentation and a youtube link is below. Obviously extremely preliminary. Next on to-do list: evaluate different policy combinations so as to ultimately trace out the "Pandemic Possibility Frontier" in the slides.

Virtual Macro Seminar

@virtualmacrosem

4 years

VMACS: First talk Tuesday 4pm GMT(12pm NY/5pm UK/6pm Sthlm): G. Kaplan, B. Moll, and G. Violante: "Pandemics According to HANK" @GregWKaplan @ben_moll @glviolante Sign up: Live on Youtube: @MortenORavn @RalphLuet @SorryToBeKurt

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

At the time I said "Thank you very much, that's too kind". What I should have said is "Thank you very much, but you really have to compliment Bob Lucas". Time to "come clean" I guess 😃

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

5 years

Was reading Samuelson's 1948 classic "Economics" text and Ch.4 has one of the best treatments of income distribution I've ever seen. At the very least the most beautifully written explanation of densities and Lorenz curves! Full text here

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

Here is German GDP. The large drop is Covid. The red vertical bars is when the Russian gas stopped flowing. Pretty hard to see anything right? The latest data GDP show: not even a recession.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

*Notes: 1. I'm being ironic (I feel one has to explicitly state this on twitter these days) 2. We're obviously in a serious crisis that requires a robust policy response. I'm not trying to minimize it. 3. I think @kielinstitute may even be a bit too optimistic

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

This could take up to a year. @makro_philip is furious: if Würth had started doing this in March, the ovens may have been just about ready by late winter. Now they will likely be ready too late. There should have been less lobbying and more substituting

Philip Jung

@makro_philip

2 years

Also Umrüstung von Gas auf Strom bei Schrauben geht jetzt doch in 12 Monaten… Deswegen wollten wir im März anfangen…und nicht jetzt, aber Industrie musste erstmal 5 Monate Lobbying betreiben. Umrüsten auf Strom heisst übrigens, dass wir dann mehr Strom verbrauchen Herr Habeck!

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

3 years

This is one of these results where non-economists may say “isn’t that obvious?” But interestingly the result is *not* true in the standard representative-agent NK model (bc of Ricardian equivalence) & the intuitive result only emerges with a more realistic modeling of consumers.

NBER

@nberpubs

3 years

An analysis of the relationship between interest rate cuts and stimulus checks as macro stabilization tools, from @ChristianKWolf

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

3 years

Interesting piece by @JonSteinsson on the recent trend in macro to combine theory with quasi-experimental empirical evidence. As a complement, let me share again this crowd-sourced PhD reading list with examples of such papers:

Jon Steinsson

@JonSteinsson

3 years

I thought I would share a short essay I just wrote about the state of macro: (Constructive comments are welcome.) I wrote this as preparation for this event:

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

Just look at the comments again. By simply moving around a few words here and there, crossing out and adding a few others, he transforms my very bumpy writing into something that actually flows and reads nicely. A kind of lost art.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

13. Remember the lobbyists' favorite example of "substitution is impossible": the glass industry. Surprise surprise: Glas manufacturer Wiegand Glass "will be able to heat its melting tanks [...] with light fuel oil instead of natural gas" HT @Bajuwandres

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Excellent @BILD interview with Abhijit Banerjee & Esther Duflo 1. Why an energy embargo would not be an economic catastrophe 2. How German industry & unions and the economists close to them fear monger to influence @Bundeskanzler #Habeck & co (Use your browser to translate)

Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Sehr gutes @BILD Interview mit Abhijit Banerjee & Esther Duflo 1. Warum ein Energie-Embargo keine wirtschaftliche Katastrophe wäre 2. Wie Industrie & Gewerkschaften und die ihnen nahestehenden Ökonomen durch unseriöse Panikmache die Politik beeinflussen

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

@paulgp The summary of the real business cycle model linked in the blog post is amazing (and accurate)

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

Latest industrial production figures for 🇩🇪: +0.2% Still no sight whatsoever of either "cascading effects" or "de-industrialization". Instead a *de-coupling* between energy-intensive industries (that do see large drops, see red line) and the rest (blue line).

Statistisches Bundesamt

@destatis

1 year

Die reale #Produktion im Produzierenden Gewerbe ist im November 2022 gegenüber Oktober 2022 voraussichtlich um 0,2 % gestiegen, auch in energieintensiven Industriezweigen. Verglichen mit November 2021 war sie im November 2022 um 0,4 % niedriger. Mehr dazu:

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

We review the many other high-quality studies assessing effects of an import stop on German economy Summary: - no single study finds deviation of yearly GDP from baseline larger than 5.3% - no single study finds recession with GDP drop larger than 2.5%

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Excellent thread with intuitive explanations why people claiming energy sanctions won't affect Putin's ability to wage war in Ukraine either haven't thought things through or are arguing in bad faith. 1/

Hanno Lustig

@HannoLustig

2 years

Does it matter if Europe keeps pumping Euros into 🇷🇺? Economists who claim it does not believe Putin has given Europe a huge free lunch. An explainer. 👇

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

What to do if the main river (let's call it "Nordstream 1") may stop flowing completely ahead of a period with very high water demand? Bad strategy: focus on reservoir level and declare success when it reaches 75%, 85%,... Good strategy: start saving water immediately!

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

I was trying to find the right words. But Esteban says it best already. What a sad day. We owe so much to Bob. Just think: what would macroeconomics be without him? But also simply thank you for teaching me so much and your immense kindness. Farewell.

Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

@HansbergRossi

1 year

Such a sad day. Bob Lucas, the most important economist in modern macroeconomics, and certainly the most important economist in my life, died today. He was such a deep and honest thinker. He was such a helpful and caring mentor. I owe him so much. Farewell Bob. Thank you.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

English translation of this excerpt of a statement by German economics ministry. The ministry itself thinks an oil embargo would be feasible at minor costs. We have reserves for 200 days and can buy oil from elsewhere. Nevertheless Berlin continues to slow down the EU response.

Moritz Schularick

@MSchularick

2 years

Hier der Ausschnitt aus der Stellungnahme des Wirtschaftsministeriums. Auch dort denkt man, dass ein Öl-Embargo unter geringen Kosten umsetzbar wäre. Wir haben Reserven für 200 Tage und können Öl aus anderen Ländern kaufen. Aber Berlin steht in Europa weiter auf der Bremse.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Here is an English translation (without comment) of @Bundeskanzler last night @annewill on (a) why gas & oil income is useless for Russia anyway (b) economists If you understand German, watch from min 18:00 . Transcript here . 🧵

Alle Videos der Sendung ANNE WILL

daserste.ndr.de

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Why? The reservoir just isn't large enough! The large reduction in inflows means that even a reservoir at 100% capacity just isn't enough to make it through the high-demand period. That's why the focus on gas storage levels is a distraction from what really matters: saving gas!

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Growth of 🇩🇪 economy in Q3 2022: +0.3%. GDP exceeds pre-Covid levels for first time. "Largest economic crisis since the end of WWII" with "millions of lost jobs"* -- the evidence just keeps mounting and mounting... *Brudermüller/Scholz

Statistisches Bundesamt

@destatis

2 years

Das #Bruttoinlandsprodukt stieg im 3. Quartal 2022 gegenüber dem 2. Quartal 2022 um 0,3 %. Die Wirtschaftsleistung übertrifft damit trotz schwieriger weltwirtschaftlicher Rahmenbedingungen erstmals Vorkrisenniveau. Mehr zum #BIP : #Konjunktur

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

One point here is about Bob's immense generosity toward young researchers. While he makes it look so easy, writing these comments must have taken him some proper time. What other Nobel laureate gives a grad student such detailed comments? It's also just one example of many.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

11 months

"The resilience of Germany’s economy is something to celebrate. More important is to learn the right lesson. Why did the balance of opinion wrongly oppose a morally and geostrategically right policy for being prohibitively expensive?"

Martin Sandbu

@MESandbu

11 months

Doom-mongers are wrong to underestimate the European economy

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

Love it: hier wird sich "gestritten" ob 🇩🇪 Haushalte und Gewerbe letzte Woche nun 36% oder 24% Gas gespart haben. Aber das ist doch unmöglich: wie jeder weiss, können die maximal 5% oder gaaaanz vielleicht 10% sparen! Danke für die tolle Arbeit @c_endt und @roth_kohl !

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

The analogy is hopefully clear - rivers = gas imports from abroad, largest river = Russia - water demand = gas demand - "small" & "large" are deliberate Here are rough numbers for 🇩🇪 in past years, e.g. storage capacity = "only" consumption of 2 winter months --> inflows are key!

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

@adam_tooze @BachmannRudi @MSchularick They actually have an English version as well: I highly recommend reading the whole thing. It's really a masterful survey and summary of all the different potential mechanisms @SVR_Wirtschaft @ngarnadt

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

3 years

Looking forward to teaching on "Heterogeneous Agent Models and Methods" in the STEG virtual course this afternoon at 4pm UK / 11am ET. Just finished my lecture notes and posted them here

Ben Moll

@ben_moll

3 years

Very much looking forward to this Friday! I'll post notes here (still work in progress): As background, here are my 1st-year PhD materials Matlab, Python, Julia codes:

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

. @tom_krebs on a gas import stop: 1.6%*5 = 8%. Only the 1.6% is @tom_krebs own number. The factor of 5 is from a totally different study from a totally different context (Fukushima). Even the authors of the Fukushima study themselves say they would not make this calculation.

Tom Krebs

@tom_krebs_

2 years

Welche wirtschaftlichen Folgen hätte ein abrupter Stopp russischer Erdgaslieferungen? Im Auftrag der Böckler-Stiftung habe ich eine neue Studie verfasst. 1/

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Important new survey data: Germans are willing to pay a substantial price for standing with Ukraine.

Armin_Falk

@Armin_Falk

2 years

Solidarität mit der Ukraine hat ihren Preis. Und viele Menschen in Deutschland sind offenbar bereit, ihn zu zahlen. Dies belegen Daten unserer repräsentativen Umfrage (mit @TeodoraBoneva1 , Mark Fallak, @LasseStoetzer ). Ein Thread zur ersten Ausgabe des #briqpolicymonitor

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Final thought: it's ok if a high-level public servant like @W_Schmidt_ gets some of the (subtle) details wrong Not ok: dismiss everyone else thinking as simplistic. Then, with absolute certainty, make factually wrong statements about these details 14/14

Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Let's start with the most obviously wrong statement: @W_Schmidt_ says "they used an input-output table from England [...]. Unfortunately, Great Britain is not as industrialised as Germany, so this table that they are using is not really reliable." 4/

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Is economic modelling useful for guiding policy? Specifically epi-macro modeling during the pandemic? UK Treasury chief economist Claire Lombardelli with a provocative take: "we could have constructed and estimated economic models all day long, and they would have been wrong"

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

Striking numbers: according to this new survey 88% (!) of Green voters support an import stop of Russian energy. Looking at the overall population the number is 69%.

Armin_Falk

@Armin_Falk

2 years

Es zeigen sich deutliche Unterschiede je nach Parteipräferenzen. Auffällig ist, dass unter den Grünen-Anhängern die Unterstützung nicht nur für einen Importstopp russischer Energie, sondern auch für Waffenlieferungen an die Ukraine am größten ist. (3/11)

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

1 year

@jakluge English version here

Fueling the War: A German Company's Questionable Involvement in Russia

A joint venture of the German company Wintershall Dea delivers gas condensate to Gazprom. The Russian state-owned corporation in turn provides aviation fuel to two military bases believed to be...

www.spiegel.de

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

As a citizen, I personally think we should go further with a complete import stop also of gas and not just a tax (though I understand the rationale for a tax). But at this point it doesn't really matter: doing pretty much anything is better than doing *nothing*.

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

9 months

Amazingly succinct summary!

David Beckworth

@DavidBeckworth

9 months

Here is @R2Rsquared on the causes behind the inflation surge of 2021-2022: (3/5)

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

4 years

I find this really really scary! Consistent with this, as of today the UK NHS completely stopped "community testing" for Covid-19, meaning the only way you can get tested is if you're so sick that you end up in the hospital.

Professor Ian Donald

@iandonald_psych

4 years

4. The Italian model the aims to stop infection. The UKs wants infection BUT of particular categories of people. The aim of the UK is to have as many lower risk people infected as possible. Immune people cannot infect others; the more there are the lower the risk of infection

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Ben Moll

@ben_moll

2 years

I finally got around to reading this. There are some fair points, in particular some we explicitly acknowledge (missing aggregate demand amplification etc) But I will react to the main criticism because it is quite far fetched: that there is no chemical industry in our model.

Tom Krebs

@tom_krebs_

2 years

Welche Auswirkungen hat ein sofortiger Stopp russischer Energieimporte? In einer Studie berechnen Bachmann et al. (2022) moderate BIP-Verluste, doch die Studie überzeugt mich nicht:

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