Hanno Lustig @HannoLustig Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Hanno Lustig

@HannoLustig

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Economist at Stanford. Fascinated by exchange rates. Really wanted to be a pilot. Actually, taxes do fund spending.

Joined June 2020

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

6 months

The key driver of this tight relation between inequality and r is the fact that the wealthiest households have much duration than other households, leading to the concentration of capital gains in the right tail of the wealth distribution when r declines.

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@sc_cath

Sylvain Catherine

6 months

By the way, while it is a widely held view that wealth inequality is high when r-g is large because of Piketty's book, this is not true among economists who understand finance or have just looked at the data. As the graph below shows, there is a perfect time correlation between

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@NoahRhinerson

@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

1 year

Twitter is like Belgium. It will keep running even when no one is in charge for long periods of time.

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Hanno Lustig

3 years

real images of economists under 30 observing inflation for the first time in the wild.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

Germany can't reverse shutdown of nuclear power plants because of a complex regulatory process. That's like an airline captain refusing to make an emergency landing at an airport because of night time noise regulations.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

5 months

De-growth is the ultimate bourgeois ideology, dreamed up by spoiled kids in developed countries who would close the door behind them, oblivious to the fate of billions in the left tail of the global income distribution whose only hope to make it out of poverty is growth.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

GDP of Russia is $1.48 trillion, roughly equal to the GDP of Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg combined. GDP of EU is $17 trillion. time to invest a bit more in defense in Europe?

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

Uniquely French scandal. Their president successfully forced incumbents who provide lousy and overpriced service to compete with new entrants. Dark forces at play.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

6 months

📣📣What about Japan? Fiscal sustainability in Japan.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

1/the Russian government's oil gas and revenue accounted for 35% of the Russian 🇷🇺 federal government revenue in 2021 (and 23% of GDP). the government's oil and gas revenue are 2.5 times the size of the defense budget.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

1/Macro-economics is still quite US-centric, and so, many of us implicitly use the US as **the benchmark**. But the US is quite different from most countries. Especially when it comes to fiscal capacity.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

yes, there's a lot we don't know about macro but I don't really know any macro-economists who think that governments don't face budget constraints, that inflation is caused by companies suddenly colluding, or that price controls or anti-trust are a good way to fight inflation.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

if a NATO country, God forbid, gets invaded by 🇷🇺, and it asks for article 5 to be invoked, they'd better be very polite about it or the SPD will give them a revise-resubmit.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

10 months

Germany now imports 0% of its gas from Russia. Austria still gets more than 50% from Russia. Austria is running out of excuses.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

1 year

I think we should put much more emphasis on teaching macro-economic and financial history in econ and finance PhD programs than we currently do. my cohort (including myself here) typically knows a lot less than previous cohorts (my impression). causes major blind spots.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

it's well known in academia that even short physical distances can act as barriers to information diffusion.

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@SenWarren

Elizabeth Warren

2 years

Wondering why your Thanksgiving groceries cost more this year? It’s because greedy corporations are charging Americans extra just to keep their stock prices high. This is outrageous.

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

MMT ready for another revision. `if you're a monetary sovereign issuing debt in your own currency and you're not on an island,..'

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

Now that MMT has been read its last rites, opportune time to ask what fueled the rise of MMT? my 2 favorite picks: 1) extrapolation from short recent macro sample after GFC (recency bias), and ignoring the historical evidence 2) sovereign risk obfuscation on CB balance sheets

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

when you mothball nuclear power plants because you're concerned about a nuclear accident and you end up funding a guy who threatens nuclear war every other week. that's when you know it's time to reconsider your plans, Mr Scholz. even if it's complicated.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

inflation may or may not be bad news for the economy, but inflation is definitely bad news for interest in MMT.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

assistant professor not based in Boston attending his first NBER conference.

@JimMFelton

James Felton

2 years

Getting so many “I don’t know anyone at this wedding” flashbacks from this

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

What caused the rise in inflation in the 70’s? How did it come back down. long-ish 🧵 on role of models.

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

using more QE to reverse capital losses of pension funds who need liquidity to meet margin calls on their interest rate hedges, which the funds put in place because of QE lowering bond yields so much the funds could no longer just use the bonds themselves to do duration matching

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

1/Not clear at all whether it is `cheaper' for the EU to keep funding Putin in the short run by buying Russian oil and gas, just to avoid a recession in EU. That requires a very high discount rate in your cost/benefit analysis.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

feels like the crypto denouement is having a bunch of engineers, mathematicians, and computer scientists relive hundreds of years of monetary and financial history compressed into a few months. reading some books would have been cheaper.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

1 year

1/Krugman's NYT column today suggests we can dismiss CBO projections because they have been overly pessimistic. The colored lines are the projections up to 10 yrs out. Bold line is what actually happened to debt/GDP. These CBO projections have been optimistic since 2000

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Hanno Lustig

3 years

I want to offer a blanket apology to all young 🇻🇪 and 🇦🇷 economists, as well as other victims of monetary experiments, for bunching them together with their less experienced peers in the 🇺🇸, 🇨🇦🇯🇵🇪🇺..you get the idea.

@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

3 years

real images of economists under 30 observing inflation for the first time in the wild.

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Hanno Lustig

3 years

🧵 on wealth inequality and interest rates.

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

you know you've hit peak credibility revolution in economics when folks want to see causal evidence for the budget constraint.

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

after 75 years of relative peace and calm, continental Europe is led by a generation of politicians who mostly seem unable to rise to this new challenge. they're being tested and they're failing the test. massively failing.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

8 months

Parenting is not easy. I don't think I've ever met parents who thought it was. And it's probably helpful if there are two parents around. Especially if they get along. Amazing to see all the vitriol and snark directed at an economist who simply writes up the evidence.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

3 years

Coinbase earned 0.54% on all the crypto-currency trades on its platform. If real currency markets were this inefficient, global banks would earn $32 billion per day ($ 6 trillion daily vol in FX markets according to BIS) just on FX trades.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

5 months

Solow was a much better **and** funnier economist than I'll ever be. Still, one thing I've learned over the past couple of years is that we would all be much better off if there were many more Friedmans around challenging conventional wisdom. So, go give your local Milton a hug.

@florianederer

Florian Ederer

5 months

Robert Solow: “I’m glad there is no Milton Friedman anywhere [...] today. Milton Friedmans are bad for economics and bad for society. Fruitless debates with talented (near-)extremists waste a lot of everyone’s time that could have been spent more constructively.”

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

r < g until it isn't.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

Yes. no more coloring buildings blue and yellow.

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Dutch to supply anti-tank, air defence rockets to Ukraine

The Netherlands will supply air defence rockets and anti-tank systems to Ukraine, the Dutch government said in letters to parliament on Saturday.

www.reuters.com

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

Does it matter if Europe keeps pumping Euros into 🇷🇺? Economists who claim it does not believe Putin has given Europe a huge free lunch. An explainer. 👇

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

3 years

1/what about Japan? excluding T-bills, BoJ has been only net buyer of central government bonds since 2013. banks, households and all other private investors have been net sellers. minor exception for insurance. maybe Jap gov. bond long rates are not the `market clearing rates'

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

new definition of inflation: strategically timed exercise of market power by corporations across different sectors of the economy, typically after large increases in government spending and expansionary monetary policy.🤔

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

7 months

Instead of teaching them to think critically about what goes on in the world, we've handed college students in the U.S. a simplistic one-size-fits-all model to think about the world, and the model is misfiring badly when tested out of sample.

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

Just when we were learning to love trillion dollar deficits, we're told that MMT never asked for any of this. MMT is only a lens, folks. Jus a lens.🤔

@StephanieKelton

Stephanie Kelton

@StephanieKelton

2 years

Can we blame "MMT" for the run-up in inflation? Of course not.

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Hanno Lustig

1 year

good time to be a bank in the US. take deposits, invest in T-bills. earn 4%.

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

stock market coming to grips with the possibility of actually discounting future cash flows.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

10 months

Recommend watching Mario Draghi's fascinating lecture to anyone interested in the Eurozone. Especially his analysis of sovereign spread dynamics in the Eurozone.

@nberpubs

NBER

10 months

Dr. Mario Draghi, former President of the European Central Bank and former Prime Minister of Italy, presented the 15th Annual Martin Feldstein Lecture on "The Next Flight of the Bumblebee: The Path to Common Fiscal Policy in the Eurozone."

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Hanno Lustig

8 months

1/Bankers say they can't be profitable with higher capital requirements, but banks without deposit insurance (shadow banks) choose an average equity to asset ratio of 25%, compared to 11% for traditional banks. hmm..

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Hanno Lustig

3 years

The government budget constraint is just a neoliberal construct. I get it now.

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

If invading another country does not get you kicked off SWIFT, what does? If North Korea, Venezuela and Russia want to build their own payments system, let them.

@vtg2

Victoria Guida

2 years

SWIFT is a bank messaging system that helps transmit billions of dollars around the world every day. Using it as a cudgel against Russia could motivate other countries to build alternatives for fear that the same thing might happen to them one day.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

And yet, new tankers filled with 🇷🇺 oil and gas are being unloaded daily in Rotterdam and Antwerp. More 🇷🇺 gas is flowing to Europe. 🇷🇺 is running a larger current account surplus than before the invasion. If you're appalled, tell your member states to stop funding this war.

@vonderleyen

Ursula von der Leyen

2 years

Appalled by reports of unspeakable horrors in areas from which Russia is withdrawing. An independent investigation is urgently needed. Perpetrators of war crimes will be held accountable.

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

The economic argument for keeping the money flow to Putin going and prolonging this war is very dubious. The moral implications are reprehensible and quickly becoming intolerable. Let's stop this now.👇

@lugaricano

Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦

2 years

We must end this hypocrisy: we cannot announce a 500M€ package to help Ukraine while we keep sending 1.000 M€ every day to Putin to buy weapons for his army. We have to stop buying Russian gas and oil now. Here is my speech in Plenary today 👇

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

Could Powell do today what Volcker did in the 80s? 🧵

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Hanno Lustig

3 years

define monetary sovereign as country that can issue debt in its own currency. then say monetary sovereign face no budget constraints. once said country implements MMT policies and loses ability to issue debt in own currency, it's no longer a monetary sovereign. rinse and repeat.

@robin_j_brooks

Robin Brooks

@robin_j_brooks

3 years

Argentina's official exchange rate (orange) vs the parallel rate (white). Peso is down 60% since end-2018 if you use the former & more if you use the latter. The outcome of #MMT -like policies, which US #MMT advocates explain away by saying Argentina isn't a "monetary sovereign."

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

grandson: `what did you do when Russia invaded Ukraine back in 2022?' grandfather: `I helped keep Russia plugged into the SWIFT payment system.' don't be that guy.

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Hanno Lustig

1 year

Long line of trucks making their way from 🇹🇷 through Georgia to 🇷🇺. The oft-repeated notion that Euro and dollar revenue earned from exporting energy was irrelevant for 🇷🇺 never made sense in theory and certainly does not hold up well when confronted with the empirical evidence.

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

A ban on Russian oil and gas is much more costly for Putin than for Europe. That's why this is a no brainer for European leaders whose horizon extends beyond the next few months. It will shorten this conflict and keep Putin from starting new ones.

@robin_j_brooks

Robin Brooks

@robin_j_brooks

2 years

An embargo of Russian energy would see Russia's GDP completely collapse. Our baseline forecast has GDP fall -30% by end-2022 and does NOT yet put a 100% weight on an energy stop. This number would be MUCH worse in the event of an embargo, making war harder to sustain for Putin...

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

there is a thin line between naive pacifism and being complicit. time for Germany's political elite to step up to the plate. the world is watching.

@POLITICOEurope

POLITICOEurope

@POLITICOEurope

2 years

Germany is still blocking allies from sending weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. Officials from two EU member countries expressed fury and disbelief at Berlin’s position, which Germany has defended as a long-standing policy aimed at preventing bloodshed.

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

EU member states cannot just hide behind 🇩🇪's inaction. 🇧🇪and 🇳🇱 ports can start to turn away ships carrying 🇷🇺 oil and gas. 🇧🇪 and 🇳🇱 process the bulk of the 🇷🇺 oil from the Baltics. @alexanderdecroo @MinPres

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

9 months

Amazing to me how many prominent economists settle on the Lemony Snicket " A series of unfortunate events" explanation of the global surge in inflation that completely exonerates expansionary fiscal and monetary policy -- based on very little actual evidence.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

time for central bankers to lose the superhero suit, stop trying to solve all of the world's problems (it's not working) and focus on the one and only task they were given, which is the only way they'll remain independent in the long run.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

5 months

Maybe the AER should start an AER: Physics Journal that is refereed and edited by economists?

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

Scholz is not considering the most likely path in the event tree: German voters get so outraged by the cumulative effect of what happens in Ukraine that he's forced to impose a ban on Russian energy anyway, but only after wasting international goodwill built up over decades,

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

not the message I wanted to send today. after checking our algebra last night, my co-authors and I have just realized this morning that the government's fiscal capacity may be unlimited after all.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

1 year

You think you're just getting a boring old checking account, but really, you're funding a highly levered portfolio of long-dated Treasurys and MBS. You're a counter-party in a repo transaction, but you can't make margin calls and the position is not marked to market.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

1 year

in a pay-as-you go pension system, if you live longer and you refuse to work longer, and your country has some of the highest tax rates in the world, then you're probably forcing your kids and grandkids to work longer. you're probably not forcing the rich to pay for your pension

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Hanno Lustig

3 years

It is truly shocking how it took the economics profession until recently to figure out that governments can just monetize deficits instead of paying for everything with taxes, and that countries have not tried this before.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

heroes in Russia.

@AVindman

Alexander S. Vindman ❎

2 years

Pushkin Square, maybe less than 1000 meters from Red Square and the Kremlin, is the cite of a significant protest. These people know the risks of challenging the regime. They’re on the street in-spite of major personal costs.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

Imagine that U.S. states had no rules against deficit spending. I'm trying to imagine what would happen in the US if the Fed announced a new program to start buying IOUs of U.S. states and municipalities in fiscal trouble and selling IOUs of all the other ones.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

3 years

Never Ask: A macro-economist why the prices are sticky An econometrics job market candidate about the data A financial economist about the risk aversion parameter An international economist to do better than a random walk A development economist to run a different experiment

@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

3 years

Never Ask: A central banker about the effects of QE on housing affordability

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

the politics of student debt cancellation make even less sense than the economics. fighting right-wing populism that resonates with blue collar Americans with more transfers to upper middle class and highly educated Americans ? what I am missing?

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

1 year

The crypto bubble (BTC per USD in chart) was fueled by declining real interest rates (10 YR real yield) in 2019/2020 and would be inevitably be popped when rates climbed back up. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity. Useful benchmark.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

2/in 2021, the 🇷🇺 federal government ran a small surplus of 1.3% of GDP. But, the Russian government ran a non-oil & gas deficit of around 22% of GDP in 2021. without oil and gas revenue, the 🇷🇺 government would have had to to borrow around 1/5 of GDP (all else equal) in 2021.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

The EU can be proud. Greek oil tankers are pulling off an impressive logistical feat not too different from the allies in the Berlin airlift, except it's for the wrong side.

@robin_j_brooks

Robin Brooks

@robin_j_brooks

2 years

Greek oil tankers in March, April & May 2022 were 60% of total tanker capacity taking oil out of Russia (blue). In the same period in 2021, they were 33% of capacity. So Greek tankers have clearly shifted towards transporting Russian oil. A business decision. With @JonathanPingle

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

Bad takes on UK fiscal crisis. 1/ Markets disapprove of neoliberal supply-side economics. No. Markets don't like large negative numbers when they look at projected primary surpluses. 2/ The binding constraint is inflation. No. Real rates on Gilts went up more than nominal rates.

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Hanno Lustig

3 years

NYT coverage of academic macro-economics is roughly equivalent to always interviewing the one medical doctor who advises against taking vaccines. let's go the fringes and see what we can dig up? and then conclude there is no consensus.

@mattkahn1966

Matthew E. Kahn

3 years

Yikes. My read of this provocative piece is that the author questions the credibility of academic macroeconomics. Who gains if the policy influence of academic economists wanes? Nobody Really Knows How the Economy Works. A Fed Paper Is the Latest Sign.

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Hanno Lustig

7 months

You cannot send aid for decades to a country without relaxing the de facto government's budget constraint. Money is fungible. Governments have 1 budget constraint and a bunch of objectives. If you help them meet one objective, that leaves more dollars for others.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

3 years

1/MMTers realized early on that their theory can only pass the empirical smell test if they include only countries in the sample that have never tried anything like MMT in the past.👇👇 hence the monetary sovereign criterion.

@robin_j_brooks

Robin Brooks

@robin_j_brooks

3 years

At the root of #MMT lies a contradiction. To do #MMT , you need to be a monetary sovereign. But you only become one after decades of fiscal restraint & conservative monetary policy, like the G10 (blue) did. Total opposite of massive debt run-ups & monetization #MMT advocates...

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Hanno Lustig

3 years

why don't people like academic economists? Is it just because we're more fun loving, outgoing, kind and generous to each other than other academics? Or is something else?

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

3 years

Really delighted to learn that my colleague Matteo Maggiori was awarded the Fischer Black Prize today @m_maggiori

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Announcement of 2021 Fischer Black Prize Winner - The American Finance Association

Matteo Maggiori has been selected by the AFA to receive the 2021 Fischer Black Prize for an outstanding financial economist under age 40. He is Associate Professor of Finance at the Stanford Graduate...

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

EU and US need to sanction shipping companies that transport Russian oil. Russia relies mostly on foreign shipping companies to ship its oil. If they can't get the oil to market in Asia, they don't get the revenue.👇

@robin_j_brooks

Robin Brooks

@robin_j_brooks

2 years

The EU is thinking about embargoing Russian oil. Given how global the oil market is, it's critical to trap the oil in Russia, rather than having it flow elsewhere. Best way to do that: sanction oil tanker traffic in & out of Russia, not directly embargo oil. With @BHilgenstockIIF

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

if you're European and you're not ashamed right now, then you're not paying attention. tell your prime minister, tell your president, tell your Chancellor that you're ashamed.

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

when a politician who intends to keep funding Putin, who has leveled entire cities and threatened nuclear war several times in the past few weeks, for years to come tells you that you and your mathematical models are detached from reality, I'd take that as a badge of honor.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

EU cabinet ministers who come home from Brussels tonight with a nice carve-out from the sanctions against 🇷🇺for their country and think they've delivered are not in the right line of work, imo. Putin is testing Europe.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

3 years

we're more likely to go back to commodity money before we use BTC as the currency choice for international trade.

@Scaramucci

Anthony Scaramucci

3 years

#Bitcoin could become the “currency of choice for international trade,” according to @Citi .

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Hanno Lustig

3 years

one of the key challenges in asset pricing is you need to infer fundamental value before you can measure mispricing. in crypto you can skip the first step. that's progress I guess.

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

time to take a close look at the cost/benefit analysis of shutting down European nuclear power plants.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

between the EU's continued funding of Putin's war by buying his gas and oil and the EU shipping his oil to Asia for him, you can't help but conclude that NATO's umbrella insurance policy has created a huge moral hazard problem in Europe.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

3 years

@IvanWerning economists write models to deal with national trauma. for example, 🇫🇷 about (in)equality, 🇩🇪 about hyperinflation, 🇮🇹 about trust, 🇦🇷 about price controls. not sure what's up with the 🇳🇱: they just write about standard errors. :)

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

7/ How are we going to explain this to our grandchildren? Are we going to say that we were trying to avoid a recession in Europe? Really?

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Hanno Lustig

3 years

if you think we should not worry about fiscal sustainability because we don't know exactly where the debt limit is, replace fiscal sustainability in the above with global warming, and try to go back 10 to 20 years.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

oil arbitrage. 1/🇬🇷shipping company transports sanctioned 🇷🇺 crude to 🇮🇳 (bought at discount by 🇮🇳). 2/ 🇮🇳 refines it into diesel. 3/ 🇮🇳 exports diesel back to EU (at premium).

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

5/Europe needs to signal to Putin that it is willing to bear the cost now. That’s a key part of deterrence. If we blink now, we may have to pay a much higher price later.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

Deja vu all over again. The micro approach to inflation, this time in the Eurozone. It's used cars, it's bananas.. I've seen this movie before. .It's inflation.

@heimbergecon

Philipp Heimberger

2 years

The rise in inflation in the €zone has mainly been driven by energy prices (yellow bars) and food prices (red bars).

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

none of the countries which have joined NATO in the last 2 decades are having second thoughts today.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

Imagine if the US and their allies had adopted the EU's approach to Russia sanctions when Berlin needed the airlift. `Let's start with few single engine planes tomorrow and try that for a few weeks. see what happens'

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

4 months

Future generations would like a word.

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

bad news for my career path if funny names are a problem for credibility 👇😀

@jan_eeckhout

Jan Eeckhout

2 years

He says: “No, it’s not that… If market power is such a big issue, why is no American economist working on it, and only Europeans with funny names such as Philippon, Zingales, Marinescu, De Loecker,…?” @ThomasPHI2 @zingales @mioana 3/

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

3/that would be hard in normal conditions, but especially hard now when you're on the verge of default and you do not have access to international capital markets.

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Hanno Lustig

1 year

Important question raised by Klaus. The original rationale for QE was the zero lower bound. To lower real rates, the ECB had to buy long-term bonds. We're definitely no longer at the ZLB. So what is the rationale against QT? Some thoughts 🧵

@klaus_adam

Klaus Adam

1 year

Anyone here understands why @bundesbank pushes strongly for Quantitative Tightening (QT) in the Euro Area? Here a few things I could come up with/heard but none make sense to me…

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

3 years

figured out why they're called stablecoins. they're designed for extremely stable environments. losses of just 0.26% on its portfolio of commercial paper would mean Tether is unable to honor its tokens. leverage is 383 to one. h/t Economist

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

3 years

Tesla's investment in bitcoin is a smart hedge because if we keep mining bitcoins as the price goes up, charging Teslas will be too expensive because the electricity price goes through the roof, and we'll all go back to combustion engines. I get it now!

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

The ECB should probably retire `market fragmentation' from its vocabulary, just like the Fed retired `transitory'.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

Kudos to the Dutch longshoremen who decided today that their government is too slow in banning Russian oil and simply refuse to offload diesel from Russia. I hope the Belgian dockers follow their lead. Force the Russian crude from the Baltics on a detour to Asia!

@lugaricano

Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦

2 years

Bravo!! Amsterdam harbor workers refuse to unload Russian Diesel ship. May all of Europe follow them! 18/N

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Hanno Lustig

2 years

Exports to Russia are recovering nicely. Turkey and China really coming through for Russia. To pay for all this, Russia is using Euros and dollars earned by selling oil and gas. Time for the EU to abandon the energy carve-out in the Russia sanctions.

@IikkaKorhonen

Iikka Korhonen

2 years

🇷🇺Exports to Russia July y/y 🇨🇳+22% 🇰🇷-33% 🇹🇼-41% 🇻🇳-55% 🇯🇵-59% Exports recovering, but still clearly below pre-war level (except 🇹🇷). Exports from 🇻🇳🇯🇵didn't grow in July.

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@HannoLustig

Hanno Lustig

2 years

Can bond markets add and subtract? A short 🧵on the ECB's decision to pseudo-taper.

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