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Aron Lund Profile
Aron Lund

@aronlund

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Syria, Middle East politics, and Mediterranean security at @FOIresearch . Fellow at @CenturyIntl , @SyriaStudies , and @UIsweden and occasional freelance writer.

aron.lund.syria/gmail
Joined December 2011
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
3 years
Turkish photographer Mehmet Aslan has won “photo of the year” at the Siena International Photo Awards 2021 with this picture of a Syrian refugee boy and his father in Reyhanli, Turkey. via @Saeed_Alnahhal
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
5 years
USA: Bye Syria! YPG: Wait, what's happening? You're abandoning us? USA: Not really abandoning, we're specifically going to let Turkey destroy you. YPG: Assad, help! USA: [stunned gasp] I can't believe you did that, you're the worst ally ever. @NYTBen
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
3 months
If you’re a superpower that can’t suffer an average rate of one dead soldier per 38 days of intense regional conflict without behaving like you’ve arrived at a 9/11-type decision point, maybe massive military entanglements in the Middle East are not for you?
@SkyNews
Sky News
3 months
'Moment of no return approaching' as Biden weighs retaliation for soldier deaths
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
7 years
Fact-creation in 2017. According to my sources, 84 percent of all the statistics you've ever seen on the war in Syria were created this way.
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Aron Lund
6 years
My 18-word article on what the Turkish elections mean for the Middle East: • Syrian rebels 😋 • Assad ☹️ • Kurds 😣 • Syrian refugees 😌 • Russia 😕 • USA 🙁 • Iran 🤥 • Iraq 🤔 • Israel 😒 • Egypt 😤 • Hamas 😃 • PLO 🥴 • EU 😭 • Qatar 🤓 • Saudis 😟 • UAE 😠
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
3 months
Biden, slamming the table: God dammit, this guy, I’m so angry. Let’s ship him more weapons. Yes, more—the goddamned weasel. Is there any way I can give him $17bn? That asshole. Yes, more bombs. I’m so pissed. More missiles. That piece of shit. More. I hate him. More. Staff: Uh
@aronlund
Aron Lund
3 months
“His descriptions of his dealings with Netanyahu are peppered with contemptuous references to Netanyahu as ‘this guy,’ these people said. And in at least three recent instances, Biden has called Netanyahu an ‘asshole.’” Don’t push your luck, Bibi—or he’ll do it again.
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
6 years
Peak Egypt was reached at the exact moment when the Cairo Governorate zoo director, who for some reason is an army major-general, denounced the allegation that his painted donkey is not a zebra.
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
5 years
Syria's Civil War: Government Victory or Frozen Conflict? My new 79-page report for @FOIresearch looks at the evolution of the conflict, all major internal and foreign actors, and five key questions that will determine Syria's future. Download it here:
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
6 months
Bashar al-Assad has arrived in Riyadh, where he’ll join the Arab League’s emergency summit on Palestine. His comments are highly anticipated, since he knows a great deal about besieging, starving, and bombing Palestinian refugee camps.
@SanaAjel
الوكالة العربية السورية للأنباء - سانا
6 months
السيد الرئيس #بشار_الأسد يصل إلى العاصمة السعودية الرياض للمشاركة في أعمال القمة العربية الطارئة التي ستبحث الأوضاع في الأراضي الفلسـ.ـ*طينية المحتلة ()
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
5 years
Everything you need to know about the sanctions on Syria: who do they target, how do they work, what is the impact on civilians? Big backgrounder for @NewHumanitarian :
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
8 years
U.S. troops in northern #Syria are wearing Kurdish YPG patches. What you just heard was Erdogan's head exploding.
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
6 months
U.S. diplomats who spent the entire Syrian War passionately denouncing blockades on aid and food, condemning besiege-and-evacuate tactics, and ridiculing Russia’s clearly insincere 3-hour “safe passage” stunts must be thrilled to finally get to do the other side of the argument.
@AASchapiro
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6 months
NPR's producer in Gaza was not able to find a single person who has been able to avail themselves of the 3 hour "safe passage" the Israeli military said it gave Palestinians to flee on the main road from northern to southern Gaza today.
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6 years
Understanding Eastern Ghouta in Syria New backgrounder for @IRINnews : what is the Ghouta, why does it matter, how many civilians are stuck in the enclave, why can't they leave, how does the siege work, who are the rebels, and what does the government want?
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
5 years
Russia in the Middle East: check out my new paper for @UISweden , which looks at Moscow's role in the Middle East from Soviet times until today. Relations with the United States, oil, allies, security, trade, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Syria—it's all in there.
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Aron Lund
4 years
Truly one of the great mysteries of the Syrian war how all the FSA rebels suddenly disappeared in October 2019 and were replaced by Turkey-backed militants who coincidentally sit in their bases, obey their commanders, and use their names, flags, and tanks.
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
6 years
The Factory: A Glimpse Into Syria's War Economy. My new report on how the world's biggest cement company tried to survive in Syria by making deals with the regime, rebels, Kurds, and the Islamic State, all at once—and what it tells us about Syria's future.
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
6 years
Well, oops. Dutch prosecutors accusing the Levant Front of being a terrorist group are informed that the Levant Front was on the Dutch government's payroll.
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
8 years
1. Army attacks in Aleppo 2. Rebels prepare counterattack in Hama 3. Army ignores them, focuses on Aleppo 4. Rebels kill each other in Hama
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Aron Lund
3 months
Test of U.S. policy coming up. The United States publicly drew the line right here, at Rafah, and Netanyahu now says he will cross it with a “massive operation.” There are ways to finesse disagreements, but he’s not trying: he’s demonstrating that he can make Biden bend the knee.
@AP
The Associated Press
3 months
BREAKING: Netanyahu orders population of Gaza’s crowded Rafah evacuated ahead of an expected ground invasion
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Aron Lund
2 years
New report! From Tartous to Tobruk: The Return of Russian Sea Power in the Eastern Mediterranean 120 pages on the eastern Mediterranean’s growing importance, Russia’s new naval presence, and how they fit together—by Jonas Kjellén and me for @FOIresearch .
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Aron Lund
4 years
Excellent @TheEconomist explainer of the eastern Mediterranean crisis – a whirl of energy strategy, gunboat diplomacy, trilateral pacts, pipeline plans, eccentric geographical claims, bad-faith legal arguments, and unhinged nationalism.
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Aron Lund
4 years
The U.S. Congressional Research Service may have set some sort global speed-writing record by issuing a 22-page background briefing on the death of Qassem Soleimani, Iranian retaliation, and its regional consequences – yesterday. And it's really good, too.
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
2 years
Oof: “Israeli military officers who watched the Russian air force in Syria closely came away surprised [...] At one stage they thought Syrian involvement in air operations was the only plausible explanation for such a low level of professionalism.”
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
4 years
For nearly a decade, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has been the world’s most cited source on Syria. If you are a journalist wondering about how to handle information from SOHR, I have put together a helpful visual tool that you can print and put on your office wall.
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Aron Lund
6 years
Aleppo again? The fighting in East Ghouta looks like a rerun of the battle for East Aleppo in 2016—didn't anyone learn anything from that tragic episode? My latest @TCFdotorg piece suggests being realistic: the rebels can't win, just focus on saving lives.
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Aron Lund
3 years
Having reported from Afghanistan over three decades, @AP ’s @KathyGannon retells the last twenty years of war from start to finish. Fantastic photographs, including this one by @DusanVranic .
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Aron Lund
3 years
This week, Syria’s war turns ten. In a new essay, I try to reflect on how rival Syrian narratives and Western biases shape our memory of the events of 2011. Why did March 15 become the agreed-upon date, if the uprising in Deraa happened on March 18?
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Aron Lund
1 year
The archive of Nazem al-Qudsi, Syria’s president 1961–63 and its last non-Baathist leader, has been made available online by his family. It looks fantastic—a real goldmine for historians and students of Syria and the Middle East. Link: via @Rim_Turkmani
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1 year
Why is Turkey threatening to attack Kurdish-held northern Syria again, and why hasn’t it done so already? In this @FOIresearch mini-report, I look at the lead-up to today’s crisis and how it is tied to Syria-Turkey relations, Russia, and the Ukraine War.
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Aron Lund
6 years
Wow, this looks like an absolutely fantastic research resource: Syrian Prints, a free, searchable digital archive of some 300 Syrian pro-opposition newspapers and magazines issued since 2011. How did I not know about this?
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Aron Lund
7 years
Into the Tunnels—my new report chronicles five years of insurgency and rebel governance in the Eastern Ghouta #Syria
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Aron Lund
5 years
"From Cold War to Civil War: 75 Years of Russian-Syrian Relations" – read my new @UISweden report, released today:
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Aron Lund
8 years
Fortunately, both Putin and Erdogan are famously cautious and soft-spoken leaders, always ready to negotiate in good faith and de-escalate.
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Aron Lund
3 years
Egypt closed the Suez Canal in the 1960s, so people started building enormous ships that could go around Africa instead, and now one of those enormous ships has clogged up the Suez Canal, so everyone has to go around Africa. @LalehKhalili :
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
5 months
Highly recommend this @ForeignAffairs essay, in which Leila Seurat explains Hamas’s internal dynamics and how Gaza-based, Qassam-linked leaders overtook the leadership in exile. It’s a must-read if you follow the Gaza conflict and Palestinian politics.
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
3 years
An Unconventional Canal: Will Turkey Rewrite the Rules for Black Sea Access? In a new background briefing for @FOIresearch I look at how Erdogan’s canal project could affect the Montreux Convention and the Russia/NATO naval power balance. Read it here:
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Aron Lund
3 years
On top of everything else, Syria and Iraq now suffer a drought.
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
6 years
Idleb briefing: Read my new @IRINnews backgrounder on Syria's last major rebel stronghold, the groups fighting over it, the risks to civilians who live there, and the international intrigues that will decide their future.
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
9 years
The IS claims they attacked "hundreds of infidels gathered for a feast of libertine fornication," which just makes me like #Paris even more.
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Aron Lund
8 years
While the Turkish coup seems to be real, reports of gunfire in Bashar al-Assad's office in Damascus are false. Those are champagne corks.
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4 months
Think of it what you will, but Western nations systematically knifing their former Syrian allies in the back is a sight to behold. This group, the Tawhid Brigade, was a linchpin of what was then called the Free Syrian Army and of the Friends of Syria strategy, backed by Germany.
@daniel_heinke
Daniel H. Heinke
4 months
#Germany Three Syrian men charged with membership in jihadism-motivated foreign terrorist organization #LiwaAlTawhid (incl. one unit commander) in #Syria b/w 2012 and 2014: federal prosecutor general. @GBA_b_BGH press release (🇩🇪):
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Aron Lund
7 months
U.S. officials expect a ground invasion of Gaza in the next 24–48 hours, sources tell @John_Hudson , and military operations will likely go on for “several weeks.” Israel also wants to stock up on Iron Dome missiles, presumably worried about Hezbollah.
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Aron Lund
6 years
Russian defense minister says the United States never "spent a cent" on Syrian civilians: For the rapidly shrinking segment of humanity that still bothers with hard facts and figures, here's last year's UN statistics on Syria aid:
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
6 years
For some hard numbers on Moscow's humanitarian generosity: Russia provided about one tenth of one percent of total aid funding for Syria last year. Given that IKEA gave half of that, you could just as well plan for a furniture company-based reconstruction.
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Aron Lund
5 years
Michael Semple on how Taliban governance works today, with details on security, courts, taxation, legitimacy/participation issues, and interactions with state institutions. A must-read if you're interested in Afghanistan or Islamist & insurgent governance:
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Aron Lund
2 years
Erdogan says it would be a mistake to let Sweden and Finland join NATO. He will likely use the accession process to squeeze out concessions on Syria/PKK, where Ankara has been irritated by Sweden, in particular. @Reuters :
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Aron Lund
6 years
A relentlessly depressing and deeply empathetic @SynapsNetwork report on the brutal social transformations wrought by Syria's civil war. If you care about the country and its conflict, this is one of those rare texts you genuinely need to read.
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Aron Lund
3 years
The Security Council is getting ready to vote about whether to close the UN’s last point of access to Idlib. It’s a life and death decision that will be made in secret negotiations with Russia—and I’ve done my best to find out what they’re talking about:
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Aron Lund
7 years
The Fall of Aleppo my latest, for @irinnews #Syria
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Aron Lund
2 years
Is Russia about to block a key aid route into northwest Syria? Aid workers’ access to rebel-held parts of Syria is up for vote in the Security Council again, and this time the Ukraine War has raised the stakes. Read my latest for @NewHumanitarian :
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Aron Lund
2 years
Suddenly interested in the Russian armed forces? Check out @FOIresearch ’s big survey of Russian military capabilities: 146 pages of expert analysis, maps, and tables describing the full range of units, arms, structure, industry, etc. Excellent resource:
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Aron Lund
8 years
Feminism 101: well-armed women dress the way they like. (Kurdish fighter in until-now IS-run East #Syria —via @4rj1n )
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Aron Lund
6 years
For those trying to follow the Eastern Ghouta conflict in Syria, I have collected twenty articles, blog posts, and reports from 2013-2018 here:
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Aron Lund
3 years
When things seem dark, remember the silver lining: the hungrier and more desperate people become in Syria, the more the Leverage grows in a secret vault under the Middle East Institute, and one day it will hatch and reveal a beautiful freedom butterfly.
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Aron Lund
4 years
On the Turkey-Greece border, @Nasr_Joseph finds Syrians “vastly outnumbered” by Moroccans, Afghans, Pakistanis, Algerians, and others, some of whom plan to pass themselves off as Syrians to get asylum status in the EU. The Syrians aren’t amused.
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Aron Lund
8 years
By calling the Islamic State "Daesh," Western leaders hope to repeat the way the Arabs destroyed Israel by labeling it the "Zionist Entity."
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Aron Lund
5 years
The UK is trying to shut down @azelin 's Jihadology website, the single most important non-government, free-access database for research on the rhetoric and ideology of jihadi groups. I use it all the time, and so do any number of academics and journalists.
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
4 years
Legal disclaimer: Any resemblance to previous historical conflicts, models of governance, or systems of ethnic separation is purely coincidental.
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Aron Lund
8 years
IS: We bombed Tartous Assad: No, Ahrar did! Ahrar: No you did! Oppo: False flag! Assad: Ahrar! IS: Hey? Oppo: Assaaad! Iran: Jeeews! IS: Ugh
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6 years
How Afrin became Syria’s latest humanitarian disaster – my new piece for @IRINnews , on the political intrigue behind Turkey's intervention in northwestern Syria and the mass displacement of Kurdish civilians that followed.
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Aron Lund
7 years
A Jihadist Breakup in Syria – read my new piece for @ForeignAffairs about the recent splits in Tahrir al-Sham.
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Aron Lund
6 years
The Shape of Syria to Come – in a new piece for @WPReview , I look at the endgame of a seven-year war.
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Aron Lund
7 years
In the last rebel stronghold near Damascus, factions turn on each other—but who's fighting whom, and why? My latest:
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Aron Lund
2 years
The leader of the Islamic State has been killed—but who was he? Why was he hiding in Idleb? Can the group appoint a successor, and what happens now: is the Islamic State returning or fading away? Read my latest for @TCFdotorg ’s @CenturyIntl !
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Aron Lund
2 years
Bashar al-Assad has visited the United Arab Emirates. It’s his first official visit of state to an Arab nation, or any nation except Russia and Iran, since the war began. State media reports below: • WAM (UAE) • SANA (Syria)
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Aron Lund
7 years
This is the first page of Loretta Napoleoni's book on the Islamic State, annotated for accuracy. From there on, it's a wild ride downhill.
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
3 years
Six years after Russia intervened in Syria, @airwars says it estimates a minimum of 14,216 civilian dead in Russian air strikes, with a further 7,710 reports still unconfirmed—but Moscow refuses to admit even a single civilian casualty.
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
7 years
Five years ago, 114 nations demanded regime change in Syria—now, they're learning to live with Assad. My new report:
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@aronlund
Aron Lund
6 years
In September, Bashar al-Assad's government banned both commercial food sales and UN aid for East Ghouta, having already banned fuel and medicine. The result? Child malnutrition is now at sub-Saharan African levels, a few minutes from downtown Damascus.
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Aron Lund
7 years
Iraqi Kurdistan just voted for independence, so what happens now? Have a look at my latest article for @IRINnews :
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Aron Lund
8 years
OK, Geneva Geneva, but Assad is now a few km from achieving his #1 war goal: cut Aleppo from Turkey. Map: @PetoLucem
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Aron Lund
7 years
Not just #Aleppo : why the Syrian opposition is headed for defeat. my latest for @syriaincrisis
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7 years
The White House says nerve gas is handled at this Syrian airfield—so why won't international inspectors go there?
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Aron Lund
7 years
An Israeli missile targeting a Syrian missile targeting an Israeli jet targeting Syria via Lebanon just hit Jordan.
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6 years
A new law decreed by Bashar al-Assad allows his government to seize the property of Syrians driven from their homes, paving the way for large-scale dispossession—a Kafkaesque process with echoes of Israel's 1950 Absentee Property Law, writes @ErwinVeen .
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Aron Lund
3 years
No, absolutely not.
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4 years
My three-part investigation of how millions of Syrians now live without key documents like IDs, birth certificates, or property deeds. • Why does it matter? • Who is worst affected? • What are the options?
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Aron Lund
7 years
How does the Gulf crisis threaten Bashar al-Assad? Well, he might laugh himself to death. New piece for @TCFdotorg :
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4 years
Here's what I think: when the U.S. Embassy was stormed, Trump could have reacted in several ways. He doesn't want to be in Iraq, remember? But then, with or without help, his mind connects "Embassy" to "Benghazi," and now Qassem Solimani is dead because hurr hurr Hillary Clinton.
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6 months
The United States and Israel promise daily 4-hour bombing breaks to empty out civilians from northern Gaza. Is that enough time? I recall that when noted humanitarians Assad and Putin offered 11-hour evacuation pauses in Aleppo, it was called “too little,” “insufficient,” etc.
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4 years
If you’re following the Rami Makhlouf affair in Syria, here’s a compilation of all his Facebook posts so far, incl. texts, images, and links to videos. I figure having it archived could be useful if, for some reason, all of it were to be suddenly deleted.
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Aron Lund
10 years
First pictures of Sisi in his new field marshal's uniform have arrived. I think we can all see where this is going. http://t.co/UTv2KCvOdP
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Aron Lund
10 months
Summary of the Sweden-Turkey-NATO deal: • Türkiye lets Sweden join. • Sweden renamed Isveç. • NATO becomes Kuzey Atlantik Antlaşması Örgütü (KAAÖ). • Joint declaration of war on YPG. • Swedish PM renamed Kurt Kristeroğlu. • Hungary will still block Isveç’s KAAÖ membership.
@aronlund
Aron Lund
10 months
Full joint statement from the meeting between Kristersson, Erdogan, and Stoltenberg.
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6 years
Excellent article detailing how Gulf-based Salafis worked to finance, organize, and indoctrinate rebel factions in Syria, by @ThomasPierret , who argues that even though their military project failed, the effects on Syria's religious landscape could endure.
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1 year
Cholera has returned to Syria, where half of the population is forced to drink unsafe water. In this new @CenturyIntl report, I try to explain Syria’s rapidly accelererating water crisis and what the world can do to avert a catastrophic final breakdown.
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Aron Lund
6 years
Listening to Tillerson rolling out Trump's new Syria policy. As far as I can tell, this is the formula: Obama's policy + fuck those refugees.
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6 years
Rebel-held northern Syria is slowly turning into southern Turkey, run by a Turkish official and with bilingual street signs and Turkish taught in schools, reports @seldeeb . Some locals shrug it off, having never been fully convinced by this "borders" idea.
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Aron Lund
7 years
After rummaging through files found in Libya, @IanCobain describes MI6 and CIA collaboration with Gaddafi's intelligence services after 2001. Includes kidnappings as far afield as Hong Kong, and of course plenty of people hung by their wrists in cellars.
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Aron Lund
4 years
Escalating to de-escalate: Why is Turkey targeting Syria's army? Read my latest for @WPReview :
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6 years
Trump has accepted Assad staying in office until 2021, U.S. and European officials tell @wrightr . Assad can be a little bad with dates, we'll see if he remembers.
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5 years
I wrote a book! And even better: @tcambanis , @mwhanna1 , @desfandiary , @simaghaddar , and @renadmansour also wrote that book—all of us together. Don't miss! Hybrid Actors: Armed Groups and State Fragmentation in the Middle East
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7 years
Nice, long interview with @KarlreMarks , who looks strikingly different without his hat and beard. @jasonlemonphoto
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Aron Lund
11 months
Tänka sig att både det första PKK-finansieringsåtalet någonsin och det första PKK-utlämningsbeslutet någonsin råkade komma precis i början av det nyvalda turkiska parlaments korta Natobeslutsfönster, inför sommaruppehållet.
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6 years
The opposition enclave in East Ghouta was brought down not just with bombs, but also with artifice: In a new @ForeignPolicy article, I look at how the Syrian government exploited rebel infighting and instigated a uprising behind opposition lines.
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4 years
On July 10, all UN cross-border aid to Syria could come to a sudden halt, severing a humanitarian lifeline for millions of people. In a new article for @newhumanitarian , I try to untangle a contested aid operation and a critical UN vote. Read it here:
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Aron Lund
9 years
By law, all rebel training camps in #Syria must include 1) the monkey bars 2) the hoops-on-fire 3) the human pyramid http://t.co/9YYYnoCmsS
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