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Anurag Pagaria Profile
Anurag Pagaria

@anurag_pagaria

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VC @BlumeVentures , Insights & Playbooks on India, Startups and Technology

Bengaluru
Joined December 2013
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
The Indus Valley Report 2024 - 3rd edition is here!! 🎉 This report is our take on India and the Indian startup ecosystem, through different lenses to sensemake what we call as “Indus Valley” - a catch-all moniker for the Indian startup ecosystem Here are 15 lenses or frames
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
The Unbundling of YouTube A very effective way of finding startup ideas is to observe and find niches in an all-purpose(horizontal) platform used by hundreds of millions of people and then create a purpose-built solution for that specific niche. This is fairly proven by the
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
This has been one of the key lessons I took while working on the Indus Valley report People often say India is a 1.4 billion people country and that it is the next China or will power the next phase of growth for most global companies, but they fail to understand how it's a
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@sajithpai
Sajith Pai
3 months
The Rule of 30 and why we at Blume believe the outer limit of the Indian consuming class is ~30m households! The Indus Valley Report 2024 edition releases this fri! Now, one of the charts we have as a fixture is our split of the India Consumer Market into India1, 2 and 3.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
This is a solid playbook on selling software in India. I would say some bits of it are even useful for other tough-to-crack geographies. I would put this tip under "so obvious that I feel dumb to not have thought about it earlier" :)
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@BlumeVentures
Blume Ventures
2 months
To SaaS or not to SaaS in India? That is the billion-dollar question! The size and potential of the Indian SaaS market is a hotly debated topic. But Kuldeep ( @ku1deep ) of @last9io and Rahul Sasi ( @fb1h2s ) of @cloudsek believe that India has a large and growing SaaS appetite.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
The Indus Valley Report Explainer guide is here! This video is a companion guide that you can refer to in order to better understand the charts and the story behind the report, In the video, @sajithpai , @llnachull and I walk you through each part, highlighting what each
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
4 months
Crossborder commerce is near an inflection point supported by a lot of tailwinds and represents the next level of growth that is coming in the Indian B2B trade Why now? India has been a powerhouse in IT and digital services but has always lagged behind in goods exports. Still,
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@sajithpai
Sajith Pai
4 months
Interesting chart from my colleague @anurag_pagaria 's piece on crossborder marketplaces. A big learning for us from Anurag's work on this piece was that the best crossborder marketplaces are vertical marketplaces where you aggregate across fragmented suppliers to sell into
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
This is only a small glimpse of the whole report. You can access the Indus Valley Annual Report 2024 at If you enjoyed reading it, then please do share it forward if you liked it, and of course, feel free to tweet or post about it.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
1. The duality or paradox of India has always been how two opposite things can be true at the same time. You could be the 5th largest economy in the world and at the same time be 140th in terms of GDP per capita. We see this duality in a lot of different places throughout the
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
1 year
@parkerconrad 's concept of compound companies feels so simple and intuitive yet you rarely see any company building that way. Loved the podcast he did with @patrick_oshag 👇My main takeaways
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
2. Out of a 1.4 billion population, only about 0.3% contribute to 80% of the income tax collected. In the report, we explain how it contributes to high government borrowing as it spends to compensate for low corporate borrowing & investments into fixed capital (GFCF)
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
3. This also brings us to how Blume looks at the Indian consumer segment. India 1, 2 and 3 - the 3 countries that exist in India, seem to be one mental model to understand India, where India 1 is mostly driving the economy and is the main consuming class
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
Thanks from team IVAR @sajithpai @llnachull @anurag_pagaria , and we have a small surprise coming your way very soon. So stay tuned!
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
One common factor behind every successful consumer app company seems to be a very strong culture of experimentation, to a point where running experiments is at the foundation/DNA of the company. This is not necessarily true when it comes to, let's say, a B2B SAAS product, as you
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
20 days
TIL- UP’s per capita is half of Pakistan’s despite similar population 🤯 UP, one of India’s largest states, has been one of the most poorly performing economies for decades. Not many people are aware that UP’s per capita of ~$852 (INR 70,792) as on FY22 is half that of
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
Delta 4, the efficiency-to-society relation, and the concentration of trust are three mental models/frameworks from @kunalb11 that have changed my thinking on startups and their right to win. Sharing my take on each of them below A startup reaches PMF and sees exponential
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
4. The Rule of 30 and why we at Blume believe the outer limit of the Indian consuming class is ~30m households, about 10% of the total number of Indian households!
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
The report is 132 slides, broadly divided into two sections, India and Indus Valley, and about thirteen different subsections, each covering a different part of India's story. Report link at the end of the thread
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
8. A key development and observation over the last 15 years is India’s emergence as a digital welfare state, leveraging digital public infrastructure (DPI) to reach every person in the country and also how DPI has been a key driver for Indian startups.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
15. Indian startups are also creating a distinct monetisation playbook, by enabling microtransactions, or subscriptions built on top of UPI Autopay, when very few believed that Indian customers would pay or that the only way to monetise was via ads.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
6. The rise of personal loans has been one of the key themes of the Indian economy and how small ticket loans have grown 31x in the last 5 years. We try to unpack what is happening in personal loans and why RBI is worried.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
5. A key part of India’s story this year has also been how well Indian markets have performed even with a global slowdown. One very big reason has been the rise of the mutual fund industry on the back of SIPs. We unpack the Indian equity market story.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
Morris Chang had 30 years of experience in his industry when he decided to uproot his life and move to another continent. When he sat down to figure out what TSMC’s business model should be, Chang started by recognizing what it couldn’t be.  “I decided right away that this
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
A very balanced report from KKR Investment about their observation about India. Some of my takeaways 👇 - Why Invest in India? It is seeing very strong consumer demand, the depth of Indian public markets is increasing, stability and clarity in terms of government policies,
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
7. India’s story is incomplete if we don't talk about its IT sector and how it has been powering the Indian economy, it also relates to how in many ways India exports its people, services and culture to the entire world.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
11. One big learning while making this report has been how different China vs Indian private markets have been, how Indian PE markets punch above their weight in comparison to China and how it is a function of delivered exits and public investor’s appetite.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
13. A key theme in the Indian startup ecosystem of late has been the rise of Digital Native Brands, which have been growing steadily over the last few years and beginning to create their playbooks of international as well as domestic expansion.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
When we think of robots, we think of Boston Dynamics, but there is a $140bn robotics company hidden in plain sight that owns 100% of its market - Intuitive Surgical makes robots. These robots are called da Vinci systems, and they're used to perform surgical procedures.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
SHEIN has gobbled up US fast fashion. When the company entered the US market in 2018, its sales hovered around $1.5B. Sales have since multiplied 15-20x and now top giants like Zara and H&M. The company’s revenue target for 2025 is over $50B.SHEIN’s trajectory has been stunning:
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
12. One interesting angle on the SME IPOs is that they have continuously outperformed the main board over the last few years.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
14. Fintech has leveraged UPI to grow rapidly, right from having a majority market share in retail broking to leading access to credit for underserved customers in India.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
9. Now to Indus Valley. Now, it’s no surprise that funding has gone down over the last couple of years. Here is how it stacks up.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
This is a really good article about tactical strategies that Duolingo used to grow 6x over the last 5 years! There are a lot of things someone building a consumer product can pick on. A few things that stood out to me 👇 Optimise for velocity, run quick experiments, get it to
@lennysan
Lenny Rachitsky
2 months
Over the past five years, @Duolingo has been on an unprecedented tear. They 6x'd their daily active users (from 5 million to nearly 30 million), and in just the past two years the stock has nearly 3x’d. For a company that’s over a decade old and that's gone through a multi-year
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
10. When we drill down, we find it is late-stage funding that has led to the decline, where both investors and founders are playing a wait-and-watch game.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
Higher interest rates have boosted profits and revenue for the top 10% of companies. It's very counterintuitive to what I thought would have been the case, but essentially, the largest companies have been able to lock in their interest rates in multi-year contracts but are able
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
5 months
A great read for anyone looking to break into VC My main learning after a few months in VC / Working with Sajith is the crux of the job is best understood as Enterprise Sales and you can then reverse engineer to understand everything else. Why Tier A colleges are favoured ->
@sajithpai
Sajith Pai
5 months
Breaking into VC: The Rough Guide! A question I get all the time is how to break into VC (venture capital), or what gets you selected into venture. I understand: VC is seen as a desirable job, and there is a fair amount of applicants for every role, so how does one stand out
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
“Occasionally, I meet with startup founders, who are very early in their journeys, to brainstorm on their ideas. Sometimes they want a reaction from me to their startup idea. A concept I share is that they should pick an idea that has a slant in it. One where the ball rolls
@sajithpai
Sajith Pai
2 months
Reflections on Strategy [warning: this is a longer than usual twitter post] Strategy is amongst the most ill-used terms in business terminology. Its ill-use is, if anything, even more pronounced in the startup world. There are multiple reasons for that. This essay won’t cover
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
Wild! I remember back in 2012/13, getting an invitation to Oneplus One was so coveted - the cost-to-value ratio was insane with a clean Android OS. It's hard to believe that this was not a marketing strategy but rather simply supply constraints, though, to be honest, I don't
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
How do you evaluate Vertical market software, and also stack rank them? One of the best primers on vertical market software by @davelyuan on @patrick_oshag 's podcast I found the concept of growth combined with turnover to be a fascinating yet logical way to look at wrt
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
SaaS as a business model is everyone’s favourite because it lends itself to the predictability of revenue because of its recurring nature, but often, the way to measure or compare SaaS is non-standardised, where everyone uses their own definition of it. Fractal's( @verticalSaaS
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
1 year
@visakanv @introspectVV @introspectVV is one of the best books I have read, period. While most books come from a point of perfection as if the author has figured out everything this comes from a point of imperfection and vulnerability, more like a living breathing thing. Thanks for writing it ❤️
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
The AI landscape has gone from a few hundred companies in 2016 to now thousands - The rate at which it is going each company is soon going to become a dot 😂 to this in 2024 Also having worked on one report, I am terrified looking at this and thinking how much time it would
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@mattturck
Matt Turck
2 months
It's out! After hundreds of hours of work, excited to publish the TENTH annual MAD (Machine Learning, AI & Data) Landscape. 🔥🔥🔥 The OG of data/AI market maps is back, bigger than ever lol + 24 themes we're thinking about in 2024 w/ @AmanKabeer11
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
1 year
Here's how I created a website that displays information on all the unicorns in the world, including their websites and descriptions, using Chat GPT-4 and @Replit . I had ZERO knowledge of JavaScript or Python and completed the project in less than an afternoon🧵
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
If you are into watching more than reading, then this super detailed breakdown of Indus valley by @waitin4agi_ is a must watch. It is also great because it gives you a 3rd person perspective on their take on the report and who better to do this than Varun :) The only thing
@waitin4agi_
Varun Mayya
2 months
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
I find the timing of it intriguing. China's EV car market is extremely competitive, supposedly having as many as 160 brands. Moreover, over the past year, margins haven't been good; most brands have cut their prices by as much as 15%. + Companies like BYD have vertically
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
Action Shows You What Your Plan Is Worth!
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
Amazon is unlike any other big tech company out there; while most companies preach focus, amazon is more like how a tech conglomerate operates. It produces movies, streams games, powers the vast majority of the web, delivers everything from furniture to groceries, and does so
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
5 months
@BlumeVentures / @BKartRed latest report on Blume's Venture fund performance is a gold mine of insights into the Indian VC - Startup ecosystem and how Venture Capital firms operate. Here are 7 things I learned from this 🧵
@BKartRed
Karthik Reddy
5 months
The Omega Files (Inaugural edition) ———————————————— It has taken over a dozen years to get here. I was hoping it would be done by year 10. And we still have a few years before the Final Chapters of the Blume Fund I journey are entirely closed. The First Edition of The Omega
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
Unbundling of craiglist
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
7 months
How Zetwerk disrupted the Indian manufacturing industry Building a company worth $2.7Bn in less than 5 years A thread of my findings 👇
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
The bottleneck in advancement in AI doesn't seem to be better algorithms/models but rather data and compute, to the point where it feels like companies and people building it never realised/anticipated how fast it would grow. Compute This is evident by triple-digit growth in
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
1 year
@masterlongevity @paulg @AlecStapp The problem is in the word chronic and how we define it, obesity is chronic in only a few cases for the rest its just a quick fix. Same can be said about antidepressants
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
Loved this excerpt from @asmartbear 's new post on how startups beat incumbents. This rings even more true now when it feels incumbents have a bigger advantage when it comes to leveraging the AI advantage, but this post talks about things a startup can focus on that would lead
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
Economic Growth Makes Physical Stuff Cheap and Time Precious
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
1 year
@warikoo Love the transparency, Curious to know your rationale behind turning ads off on YT? How much would that bring in based on your past views/metrics?
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
1 year
Building a single product might not be the way to go about things because most of the mjr ideas hve been executed and there a ton of competition in that but when you build interconnected suite of software it creates magic ex @Rippling , @salesforce 1/n
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
1 year
@sama Reminds me of lenin’s quote - there are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
If you are more into listening rather than reading or want a companion guide to understand the report better. 90 mins of us taking you through each section and our thought process behind it
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
It’s common to say “startups die because they ran out of money” or “startups die because the founders gave up.” But that’s like saying someone died because their heart stopped, without mentioning that they were battling lung cancer. Doctors call “heart stopped” the “proximate
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@asmartbear
Jason Cohen
2 months
Just published a new article! 👇🏾 Why do startups typically fail? It turns out that "avoiding those things" is already a plan for success. Many thanks for pressing 🔁 and ❤️!
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
One more reason to partner with Blume - We would make a short film about you :) This short film shows what impact startups bring to everyday Indians and it just happens to be that all of them are our portfolio companies 😅 Amazing work by @STAGEdotin in making this a reality
@BlumeVentures
Blume Ventures
3 months
Artist, teacher, doctor, firefighter, or a startup founder? Chhutki, a young girl from a small village in India, is confused about what she should aspire to become when she grows up. Embark on a journey with Chhutki through a day filled with curiosity and discoveries, where she
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
To anyone who believes in the efficient market hypothesis, please explain this to me? Both BYD and Tesla operate in the EV space, though at different price points, but with long-term converging customer bases; one is valued at 15x of forward earnings while the other is at 62x.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
Anyone curious about the Indus Valley report, @skipiit is organising a fun walkup format meetup on the 17th March (Sunday) - 7 am Would love to share thoughts on how and why we thought about each section, and what the broad narratives we are seeing play out in the Indian story
@skipiit
Subhendu Panigrahi
3 months
We all have read or planning to read The Indus Valley Report 2024 by my friends @sajithpai @anurag_pagaria @llnachull at @BlumeVentures How about a WALKUP in @peakbengaluru to discuss, deep dive and dissect the report with our very own @anurag_pagaria So in the format
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
India's GDP breakdown
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
1 year
@amasad - how can 1000 people capture the sentiment in a country with over a Billion people. - developed countries have more information for people to gauge the threat People who are aware about AI are more likely to have trust issues regardless of their location
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
TIL 🤯 Within the MSCI All Country World Index, a benchmark that claims to cover about 85% of the global investible equity market, the combined weighting of the Magnificent Seven is larger than that of all the stocks from Japan, France, China, and the UK.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
1 year
@VarunMayya I am still not sure whats the definition of AGI is anymore, for all practical purposes gpt4 and …. Is AGI for me
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
Over the past decade, China has swiftly ascended to become the world's largest EV market, commanding half of the global sales of electric passenger cars and over 90% of the sales of electric buses and trucks. For 2024, Chinese domestic EV sales are projected to hit 11 million
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
@mister_whistler Where do I sign up? Will collect user feedback also 😂🤞
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
@mjmauboussin excellent piece which examines how public companies reacted during the Era of easy money or zero interest era Two insights that stick out to me While you would expect with lower/0 interest rates, companies would invest more, hold more debt and keep less cash -
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
5 months
@nikitabier There is domain purchase company called - godaddy
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 years
@punk6529 @punk6529 Don't you think most of the projects should give power to the community not just Pfp and more importantly be on-chain?
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
1 year
@rez0__ Rooting for evil status plugin😂😂😂
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
5 months
TIL - Bangalore airport is supposedly valued at $3.7BN - do they even get a cut of airport cab rides as well 😂
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
1 year
@Suhail Read like a dystopian short story 😂😂 what have you found in your time building products the best way to get feedback?
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
1 year
@Suhail @Suhail any AI products that you have been surprised by in terms of how they have used it? Assuming you are spending a lot of time in the weeds rn
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Anurag Pagaria
5 months
@tarunsmehta What I find intriguing is beyond electric, Ather has created a category of premium Scooters similar to how premium Motorbikes used to exist, whereas earlier scooters were purely functional now it has become much more about how it makes you feel 🩷
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
5 months
I guess the market is happy not paying 50x ARR Though a huge punch to the acquisition route for really huge startups - the only way for large startups to exit would now be via IPO Increased scrutiny in anything big tech does
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@zoink
Dylan Field
5 months
After an intense 15 months of review, today Adobe and Figma have decided to end our pending merger, as we no longer see a path toward regulatory approval of the deal.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
1 year
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Anurag Pagaria
3 months
Link to the Indus Valley Report 2024 -
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 years
@petejkim @sandeepnailwal Would be really interesting to see how we would be tackling large amount of participation by exchanges in block creation. The only way I see is if the entire web3 ecosystem becomes powerful, coins stacked in exchanges should go down. Wdyt?
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Anurag Pagaria
1 year
Best tools Search, traffic, bugs - Google search console Keyword - @semrush @ahrefs Content performance - @clearscope Crawler + Technical SEO - @screamingfrog 9/9
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Anurag Pagaria
1 month
This is why today, all land in China is owned by the state or collectives, and they choose to lease it out to companies and people.
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@robkhenderson
Rob Henderson
1 month
Upon discovering that power laws exist, Mao Zedong concluded that the only thing to do was launch a revolution.
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 years
What is the commonality between the most successful B2B companies of the last decade? Their primary growth engine is the product itself. Yet 90% of the companies do it incorrectly Here is a step-by-step method to utilise PLG in its full potential
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
Understanding is a Poor Substitute for Convexity (Antifragility) "Theory is born from (convex) practice more often than the reverse (the nonteleological property). Textbooks tend to show technology flowing from science, when it is more often the opposite case, dubbed the
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
3 months
- Can quote stats on GFCF, Low taxpayers and K-shaped recovery - Go meta talking about India's export - Compares Jamnagar pre-wedding to reading Indus valley report
@Vatsal_Sanghvi
Vatsal Sanghvi
3 months
2024 twitter techboi pack - has watched all the episodes of @nikhilkamathcio ’s pod - travelled x countries / wanderlust - owns x pairs of kicks / sneakerhead - gonna buy that rolex / watch enthusiast - has read and analysed all the @BlumeVentures indus valey reports - wants
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
Really like how @lennysan has articulated it. I am not sure it is always this linear. Many times, founders start with a vision or a goal and realise the mission later on, but what I particularly like about this is it gives a more structured way of combining the bigger picture
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
7 months
What if you can learn the playbook of the world's best investors? @joincolossus new show @artofinvest is trying to do just that - Their episode with ToddCombs (Investment officer at Berkshire Hathway, working alongside Warren buffet and Charlie munger) hosted by @buhrman_rick
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
1 year
@ammaar Hey love this, would like to more on the midjourney part, how where you able to refine it and get consistent results I am getting wild variations 😂 and also any good prompt eng resources that you could recommend?
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 years
12) To do a deeper dive into crypto and bitcoin would highly recommend reading @MessariCrypto 's 2022 thesis
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
1 year
@Suhail Feels like state of software building today parallels how human calculators felt when computers arrived, getting heavy hidden women movie vibes 🤦‍♂️
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
5 months
Back your winners 7. Reservers are essentially, a part of the fund which is kept purely to bet on winners - to get the most out of them. With only a few startups that strike out - becomes paramount that you bet on the ones that are taking off
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 months
Most sales pitches fail not because customers chose something else but because most B2B purchase processes end up resulting in “no decision.”They failed to buy because they couldn’t figure out how to confidently make a decision @aprildunford 's post on how to build a killer
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
1 year
@yishan Me 😭 in the corner, realising the only thing working in my favour has also been taken away from me 😂😂😂
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@anurag_pagaria
Anurag Pagaria
2 years
7) In 2021 it went through - China banning bitcoin - Energy consumption fud - Regulatory uncertainty in India all of which it has sailed through
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