Resident Fellow,
@ACEurasia
;
@CERESGeorgetown
| RPCV 🇺🇦 | fan of Odes(s)a, defensive midfielders, and well-written newsletters | views/tweets are mine, man
‼️Great graphic showing how a significant portion of Ukraine funding is actually spent in the US, including key battleground states. Billions of dollars to US businesses+tons of jobs for American workers.
A huge win-win-win for Americans, our national interests, and Ukraine.
A small group of Russians are fighting for Ukraine in Bakhmut: “'Yes, I kill my countrymen, but they have become criminals. They came to a foreign land to rob and kill and destroy. They kill civilians, children and women.'”
⚡️19 US national security experts agree: "The war in Ukraine has reached a decisive moment and vital US interests are at stake."
Strong American military support for Ukraine is also a smart investment in US and European security.
⚡️ New
@FoxNews
polling shows 66% of American voters support major US support for Ukraine. That’s +4% on November, and +10% on voters who want to do **more** to help Ukraine.
🇺🇸 public support for 🇺🇦 has always been higher than it gets credit for, and support may be trending up.
Today I went down a rabbit hole looking into Russian state media’s August 2022 Foreign Agent Registration Act (FARA) filings in the US.
🚨A Russian propaganda channel is paying a US conspiracy theorist $$$ to broadcast (dis/mis)information in developing countries.
THREAD 1/
The difference between US and European military aid to Ukraine is small in dollar terms and total European aid to Ukraine far outstrips total American aid.
But don’t let the facts get in the way of a counterproductive story, right
@Heritage
?
Europe is well behind the U.S. in providing Ukraine military support. It is a gross disservice to the American people to send $60 billion more of their money in largely unaccountable aid, especially without Ukraine’s European neighbors stepping up their contributions.
For those counting at home, the $75 billion that the 🇺🇸 US has sent to 🇺🇦 Ukraine since February 2022 is approximately equivalent to:
- 0.16% of estimated US GDP
- 0.65% of federal spending
- 5.1% of US defense spending
Supporting Ukraine is a cost-effective and morally right.
⚡️Zelenskyy, speaking in Russian, delivers an 8-minute appeal to Russians:
- 🇺🇦 is a free country
- 🇺🇦 is not full of Nazis. (Invokes his own Jewish heritage).
- 🇺🇦🇷🇺 are different, but that’s not a reason to be enemies.
- 🇺🇦 will defend its territory
- You 🇷🇺 can stop Putin
⚡️
@BorisJohnson
: “Has anyone heard of a guy called
@TuckerCarlson
?”
“[His] bad ideas are starting to infect thinking around the world about what Putin stands for...[Putin] stands for war, aggression systematic murder, rape and destruction.”
In the early morning when nobody was watching the Senate voted to plow another $60 billion of your money into Ukraine. Not a penny for Missouri. Not a penny for radiation victims. But the Big War machine gets its billions. What a betrayal
The story is even more stark if you look at Ukraine aid as a % of national GDP. Some EU countries are spending 2% of GDP to help Ukraine. The US has spent 0.16% GDP on aid.
Key paragraph: When Americans learn the US has spent just 3% of the defense budget in support of Ukraine, people are more likely to say US aid is worth the cost:
Dem 77% (+12)
GOP 59% (+18)
How US leaders frame 🇺🇸 support for 🇺🇦 is hugely important.
75% of Americans say it's important to the United States that Ukraine wins the war against Russian aggression, including bipartisan supermajorities of Democrats (86%) and Republicans (71%)
“Ukraine is the frontline of freedom,” says
@Kasparov63
. “We are still shy of saying ‘our goal is to help Ukraine win this war’…the liberation of Ukraine will be the liberation of Russia.”
This
@nytimes
article by Serge Schmemann on the prospect of peace negotiations with Russia is just as unserious as the many that have come before it.
Like its clones, the piece fails to grapple with how to make Putin abide by a “ceasefire” and what do to when Russia violates it.
Been waiting on this for months! Stop Russia in Ukraine because:
- Russia is a threat to Ukraine AND our NATO Allies
- Zero American lives lost supporting Ukraine with aid
- China is watching how we react to aggression
Solid stuff,
@POTUS
👏🏻
Quick recap: Kremlin propaganda channel pays American conspiracy theorist
@BenSwann_
$400k+ to spread his dubious views on TV to audiences in India, China, Africa, and South America.
Mr. Swann set up his own personal media company in the US months ago to do just that. 9/
Even though much of the world has condemned Russia for its full-scale war of aggression in Ukraine, Russian malign influence is a real and continuing problem in the US and around the globe. 10/END
As we see, Rebel Media is owned+founded by American conspiracy theorist/ex-RT employee Benjamin Swann
@BenSwann_
, best-known for hawking Pizzagate conspiracies and anti-vaccine disinformation.
For context, his social media platform “Sovren” promotes ties with Alex Jones.
5/
One fighter "joined the Ukrainian military shortly after he saw the atrocities perpetrated by Russian soldiers in the suburbs of Bucha, Irpin and Borodianka."
President
@ZelenskyyUa
announced 🇺🇦 Minister of Defense
@oleksiireznikov
will be replaced by current head of the State Property Fund
@rustem_umerov
.
Quick thread on why change now and why Umerov.
Spoiler: I think this is a very sensible move. 1/
Some digging in the FARA database reveals that TV Novosti, parent organization of Russian propaganda channel RT, signed a contract with “Rebel Media Productions” to produce content NOT for the US, but to broadcast specifically to “India, China, and South America.” 4/
I started digging after reading
@caitlinoprysko
’s update for
@politico
on Friday that Rossiya Segodnya, the parent company of Russian propaganda org Sputnik, had re-upped its media production deal with US partner Ghebi LLC for 2022/23 at ~$7 million. 2/
Side note: Mr. Swann writes that he believes TV Novosti receives funding “in part” from the Russian government.
Turns out, TV Novosti received the MOST Kremlin funding of any Russian news outlet in 2022—25 billion rubles. 6/
Mr. Swann filed under FARA on August 5, 2022 with the express purpose of broadcasting Russian state propaganda for TV audiences in the developing world. TV Novosti will pay him an initial $420,000 (nice, Ben) for his efforts. 8/
Mr. Swann registered Rebel Media Productions LLC in Florida on March 24 2022 as a “foreign for-profit corporation.”
Rebel Media Prod. comes up empty in online searches—Mr. Swann does appear to be its sole proprietor. 7/
"Ukrainian NATO membership would mean an end to dreams of restoring the Russian Empire. This would be good news for all Russians."
Convincing piece by
@Leonid_Gozman
in
#UkraineAlert
on why Ukraine's NATO accession would be good news for Russia.
🚨New
@DataProgress
polling shows 74% of Dems and 52% of independents believe aid to Ukraine is a national priority for the US. Even a plurality of Republicans (48%) say Ukraine aid is a priority.
Americans know support for Ukraine is a strategic layup for the United States.
Important point: Ukraine’s air defenses continue to be incredibly effective against RU rockets+drones, regularly downing them at a 80-90% rate. This has saved hundreds of lives and infrastructure.
Congress can’t look away—put Ukraine aid to a vote and get Kyiv more air defense.
Огромная трагедия в Украине сегодня. Однако отмечу, что ПВО сработало очень хорошо. Запущено больше 100 разных боеприпасов — в основном крылатые ракеты. Если бы даже половина добралась до земли целыми, мы бы увидели 50 таких разрушенных зданий в Киеве и Харькове. Уровень
“We have to stop Putin and the place to stop Putin is in Ukraine. And Ukrainians are our natural partners in that fight.” –
@ACEurasia
senior director
@JohnEdHerbst
at the
#StandWithUkraine
rally today in Washington.
Wondering what Viktor Medvedchuk has been up to since his expulsion from Ukraine?
The EU declined to sanction him, so he's been bribing EU politicians + funding a Prague-based disinfo network 🙃
Lots more in
@Francis_W_Shin
's superb
#UkraineAlert
piece👇
Reminder that Russia has seized and blocked 15 of Ukraine’s 18 ports in an effort to destroy the country and its economy.
Ukraine’s three remaining ports are along the Danube River, two of which sit on the border with Romania.
Basically, Reznikov had a good run, but his struggles at curbing petty corruption were cause for concern.
Umerov is reform-minded and a capable manager. He’ll be well-received in the West, though he’ll have to build relationships with top defense officials from scratch 10/10.
😬😬😬 the Russian opposition has a MASSIVE messaging problem.
Russian opp blogger Maksym Katz says “the Russian opposition doesn’t owe anyone anything, especially Ukrainians.” This ain’t it.
Fringe voices like
@JDVance1
and
@RepMTG
have it all wrong on Ukraine and new polling shows most Republican voters know it.
@ACEurasia
’s
@JohnEdHerbst
& Debra Cagan take down Vance and MTG’s ever-more implausible excuses for denying Ukraine aid.
Reznikov was well-liked in the West, though allegations of corruption and graft scandals plagued the ministry + some of his deputies. He was key to Ramstein Formula success.
Importantly, most of the allegations pertained to locally-procured aid, NOT Western weapons or funds. 3/
Dunking on Putin’s ahistorical Ukraine claims is nothing new.
“When Kyiv became a state, Moscow was still just a swamp,” - my
#PeaceCorps
host dad in southern Ukraine.
"The Biden administration is happy to share Ukrainian flags on social media instead of planting them in Crimea."
"Ukraine must win. Those are the three words Mr. Biden needs to say in Vilnius."
👊 from
@Kasparov63
in
@WSJ
⤵️
Update: many speculate Zelenskyy will name Reznikov 🇺🇦 ambassador to the UK in short order, taking up the post left vacant by Vadym Prystaiko’s dismissal in July.
One of the most underappreciated yet hugely important developments in post-February 2022 Ukraine: Ukrainians have turned the Danube into a commercially viable shipping hub w/ access to both the Black Sea and European markets. A triumph for Kyiv, UKR business, & the Danube region.
In 2023, Ukraine increased exports via Danube ports by 500% compared to pre-war years. This is crucial for Ukraine's economic development & enormous achievement for Ukraine with support from US, EU, & other partners. Putin's attempts to thwart Ukrainian exports continue to fail.
The most interesting bit of Umerov’s appointment is that he was not a member of the Ze team from the beginning, like so many others.
In fact, he began his tenure as an MP of the opposition Holos party, which was often highly critical of Ze’s Servant of the People. 6/
Umerov will be confirmed by the UKR parliament in short order and become minister. Of Crimean Tatar origin, he has some profile in Washington and Europe and to me is a strong choice. 5/
Even so, murmurs of corruption likely became untenable for Ze to keep Reznikov as minister, though there’s little evidence Reznikov had been involved directly.
His time simply had come. 4/
Stunning research showing how Moscow is artificially causing huge delays for 🇺🇦 ships in the Sea of Azov. Avg. wait time for ships pre-blockade in 2018 was ~7 hrs each way. Now entering ships wait ~20 hrs and exiting ~45 hrs.
This is economic warfare.
Umerov’s capable work managing SPF helped win Zelenskyy’s trust and his squeaky clean profile in the West made him a strong candidate for the MinDef job.
While he lacks major defense/security experience, so too did Reznikov when he took the job. 9/
In Sept 2022, Ze named Umerov head of the State Property Fund, taking over from the corrupt Dmytro Sennychenko.
He cleaned up the govt privatization push and had some success moving forward with large-scale privatization, though small-scale bid-rigging remains a challenge. 8/
Reznikov had been Zelenskyy’s minister of defense for almost two years, a very solid tenure in the Ze cabinet, who is known to chop and change.
Ze clearly trusted Reznikov as a manager of one of UKR’s most important ministries. 2/
Superb clarity here from
@David_Cameron
on what NATO countries must do **now** to get Ukraine the support it needs to defend itself from Russia:
- Get UKR air defense
- Seize RU assets
- Meet 2% defense spending
- Pass 🇺🇸 aid ASAP 👀
@SpeakerJohnson
⚡️This is all now very real. Prigozhin is in Rostov at the Southern Military Command. He again blames his actions and RU’s failures in Ukraine on Gerasimov and Shoigu.
Says RU losses are 3-4x what is reported in the army and 10x what RU tv reports. Wild
When Holos split in 2021, Umerov moved closer to the SoP faction and was even part of the UKR negotiating team that met with RU reps in March 2022. There were reports that he may have been poisoned there, along w/ RU oligarch Roman Abramovich. 7/
⚡️New Russia sanctions just dropped. We’ve got:
- New reporting requirements to try to find frozen RU sovereign assets
- New measures on Western and RU entities providing/procuring dual-use tech
- Sanctions on RU foreign intelligence (SVR)
Putin cried terrorism over yesterday’s drone attacks on Moscow. But as I told
@BBCNews
, the real terrorism is Russia’s 15 months of strikes on civilian areas in Kyiv and across Ukraine.
Watch here ⤵️
Of note: ~$20 billion in aid earmarked under Ukraine aid will go toward rebuilding US weapon stocks. Another important investment in American national security and manufacturing.
Pitch-perfect piece by
@DmytroKuleba
in
@nytimes
on Russia’s fake ceasefire talks, the importance of increased sanctions, and why military aid to Ukraine is a sensible security investment for the West.
Quite the Washington split screen this week:
Zelenskyy seeing Biden to talk aid to Ukraine and transatlantic security.
Orban headed to
@Heritage
to plot how to hand victory to Russia.
BREAKING!!! Biden has invited President Zelenskyy to the White House for a meeting on Tuesday, December 12 to underscore the United States’ unshakeable commitment to supporting the people of Ukraine as they defend themselves against Russia’s brutal invasion.
Important
#UkraineAlert
piece by
@Biz_Ukraine_Mag
on Russia’s hybrid war against Ukraine in the Black Sea.
The Russian navy’s current maritime maneuvers constitute economic warfare. It could easily impose a devastating blockade of Ukrainian ports.
It makes no sense for the White House to grant Putin’s army a safe space from which to send glide bombs at Kharkiv & launch a new offensive. But by prohibiting Ukraine from striking targets in Russia with US weapons, that’s exactly what we have.
Time to change this policy ASAP.
This can be framed in stronger terms though:
- Defend countries’ right to sovereignty
- Bring Russia to justice for war crimes
- Strengthen NATO
- Deter future Russian aggression
- Help Ukraine defeat Russia
- Allow a real pivot to Asia
At the cost of ZERO American lives
If you buy the BS that no one’s explained how aiding Ukraine is in US interests, it’s:
-Defend int’l laws & norms against aggression
-Side with victims
-Help partners
-E. Europe stability
-Thwart adversary
-Discourage any would-be conquerer (eg China)
All at relatively low cost.
“The best way to defend the Baltics is to ensure that Ukrainians get the tools they need to defeat Russia today.”
@DougKlain
and I look back on a week in Brussels and Vilnius and preview how to set a course for 🇺🇦 victory in this
@AtlanticCouncil
piece ⬇️
Russians destroyed Mariupol, starved its Ukrainian inhabitants, and are building new subsidized housing for Russians who “want to live by the sea.”
Russian civilians actively participating in ethnic cleansing.
#HoldRussiaAccountable
Pro-Russian MP Nestor Shufrych arrested today for photographing the positions of Ukrainian troops. He’s the same guy who was punched out on Ukrainian TV recently for refusing to condemn Putin’s invasion of Donbas and annexation of Crimea.
He is who we thought he was.
⚡️Six former US ambassadors to Ukraine respond to Tom Graham's badly misinformed
@CFR_org
piece on Ukraine's democratic future by asking the right question:
"If the 27 member states of the EU can see Ukraine’s future clearly, why can’t Thomas Graham?"
Ukraine’s deputy PM
@StefanishynaO
responds: “We understand the call of our American partners. At the same time, we are fighting with the capabilities, resources and practices that we have today.”
Basically, “what do you want us to do, nothing??”
Scoop: The US has urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, warning senior SBU and GUR officials that drone strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation.
w/
@hallbenjamin
@felschwartz
@mylesmccormick_
via
@FT
Enough of this “Russia’s backyard” nonsense. Sovereign nations have the right to choose their partners and from whom they buy arms.
Russian weapons failed Armenia in 2020, as did Russian peacekeepers from 2021 onward. Armenia (like all countries) has agency and is exercising it.
Russians fired missiles at a post office in Kharkiv overnight, killing six postal workers and seriously injuring eight more.
Worth repeating: Russians bombed a post office.
“The Kremlin has shown no interest in good-faith negotiations [with Kyiv].”
I went on
@BBCWorld
to discuss why Ukraine refuses to discuss territorial concessions with Russia.
@ACEurasia
⚡️ Putin published an article on Russia-Africa ties and confirmed that Moscow seeks to substitute Ukrainian grain with Russian grain on world markets.
Russia’s Black Sea blockade will increase food price inflation while causing major damage to the Ukrainian economy.
Analysis of a recent
@CNN
poll on US support for Ukraine has hugely oversimplified the reality.
Other polls (and the CNN survey), suggest 🇺🇸 public support for 🇺🇦 is much higher than many experts realize. My latest for
@AtlanticCouncil
⤵️
The Russian military is aiming to induce a nuclear catastrophe in Ukraine. But the West (+ China and India) can still deter Moscow from further attacks.
My latest with
@VVoytsitska
in
@TheHillOpinion
⤵️
Yesterday, 🇺🇦 PM
@Denys_Shmyhal
noted that the renewed Russian military threat has prompted foreign investors to divest from Ukrainian securities & put negative pressure on other economic indicators.
This latest bout of Kremlin aggression is ALREADY harming Ukraine.
Ukraine is fighting off Russia AND continuing much-needed reforms. I took a closer look at what recent developments in the Danube region can tell us about Ukraine's future.
My latest in
#UkraineAlert
⬇️
Ending Russia-centrism in Eurasia studies should be an imperative for American universities. Studying Russia(n) is fine and good, but it’s time to stop treating Russia as prima inter pares in regional studies.
STARTING SOON | As the world comes to grips with Russia's crimes in Bucha, are these atrocities a grave harbinger of the next phase of Russia’s war against Ukraine?
@getmalyona
, Keith Dayton,
@AlexDanylyuk
, &
@v_milov
join
@JohnEdHerbst
.
The Danube River region of Odesa Oblast has begun the 🇺🇦 2022 harvest season, reports
@theUBN
. Grain that would head to ports in Odesa will now likely be rerouted through Romania. Rerouting will increase costs, but crop revenues will be huge for the region’s wartime economy.
It's been 21 years(!) since Ukraine last conducted a census. Replacing outdated demographic info w/ a new 🇺🇦 census can mitigate misinformation and reinforce positive post-2014 changes.
I wrote about THAT
@washingtonpost
map for
#UkraineAlert
.
🔴⚪️🔴
@Tsihanouskaya
on how US citizens can help
#Belarus
: “Every bit of assistance helps. Write letters [to political prisoners], send money, talk with us, discuss our struggle for democracy.”
I’m very honored to have made the 2022 U.S. National Security & Foreign Affairs Leadership List. As a Black man who works on Eastern European affairs, I’m grateful that my work is recognized. Thank you to
@NatSecDiver
for always amplifying me.
Ukraine's interior minister confirms what we already suspected: The recent spate of fake bomb threats have largely come from Russia, occupied territories, and Belarus.
This sentence is chilling: "We must learn to live with such challenges in the future."
Putin likes to say that NATO & Ukraine threaten Russian society. In fact, Putin’s false claims and his domestic repressions are the real threats to Russians. Delighted to share my first piece for
@thehill
@TheHillOpinion
.
🇺🇦 Some much-needed positive news from Ukraine:
Ministry of Agriculture reports that the price of farmland is up 217%(!!) since the opening of the land market in July. And >200 successful online land sale auctions so far. Still early days, but this is a MASSIVE reform success.
Superb clarity from
@melindaharing
on why the 🇺🇸US and 🇪🇺EU must increase military and economic aid to Ukraine. Supporting 🇺🇦Ukraine's victory is in our interests and it's the right thing to do.
Read her full piece in
@thehill
:
The proposed $60 billion aid package to Ukraine continues dedicated US oversight over all aid transfers and includes far more restrictions than previous packages.
To say “we don’t know where the money is going” is willful ignorance.
Man, there’s a huge desire this week by some Republicans, both in and out of leadership, to push back on the anti-Ukraine Republicans. Here’s a senior GOP aide looking to rebut Mike Lee’s claims about the foreign aid supplemental.
“In the West, artists and writers no longer fight in the army. Every Ukrainian writer that I know has joined territorial defense battalions or in the Ukrainian army.” -
@ACEurasia
’s
@VladDavidzon
Ok here goes: Tell me you're partnering with Russian state media (
@tass_agency
) without ~telling me~ you're partnering with Russian state media.
@Reuters
“Putin’s ambitions do not end in Ukraine. It is much easier to stop Putin in Ukraine than it is to stop him in the Baltics or in Poland.” -
@ACEurasia
’s
@JohnEdHerbst
Lviv university students protest a professor who questioned the patriotism of Russian-speaking UKR soldiers who then posted a video in support of her views from a student in Crimea with his name and location—he was later detained by RU authorities.
Wow. Stanislav Aseyev alleges that infamous Izolyatsia torturer “Palych” was allowed to live in Kyiv and worked for Ukraine’s SBU security services as an agent. He explains how he and
@christogrozev
worked to find and detain Palych.
Begs the question how the US expects Ukraine to stay in the fight without:
- adequate artillery ammo
- air defense
- ATACMS
- air cover for ground troops (F-16s)
- a timeline for further US aid
NEW: The US ambassador to NATO, Julianne Smith, pushes back against Ukrainian strikes inside Russia:
"That is something that the United States is not particularly supportive of. We are focused on the right to defend its territory, to push Russians out of its territory."
Fantastic to see
@serhiyprytula
’s
#UkraineAlert
debut on speeding up Western aid disbursements to Ukraine.
Western leaders must step up by “ramping up armament production at home and sending Ukraine the fighter jets Kyiv so desperately needs.”
The
#NordStream2
deal as an NBA blockbuster trade -
🇩🇪 gets: cheap gas from 🇷🇺 (for now)
🇺🇸 gets: better relations w/ 🇩🇪 (maybe?)
🇷🇺 gets: influence in 🇩🇪+🇪🇺, huge cash considerations, political+military leverage over 🇺🇦
🇺🇦 gets: a few million from 🇺🇸
wHo woN THis trADe?