International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Senior Editor
@ArcDigi
. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.
Antivaxxers witnessed the biggest, fastest mass vaccination program in history, saw that various widespread negative side effects they feared didn't happen at all, and instead of breathing an epic sigh of relief, decided to pretend those negative things actually happened.
Massachusetts is one of eight “donor states” that pays more in federal taxes than it gets back in federal expenditures (ranks third behind NY and NJ).
Florida, by contrast, is the third biggest “taker state” (behind VA and KY), getting over $50B more than it pays in.
Just sayin’.
If you're arguing that Ukraine is rightfully Russia's because it was once part of Russia, and you live in Texas or the American southwest, I have some questions.
In the US there have been 41 bombings of abortion clinics, and another 173 arsons.
11 total people have been murdered in 7 separate attacks on abortion clinics. There have also been 17 attempted murders.
To my knowledge, there are zero cases of pro-choice bombings or murders.
The freakout you are witnessing from the left is very instructive. When Roe was handed down 49 years ago, pro-lifers didn’t riot, didn’t call for SCOTUS to be burned down, didn’t threaten the lives of justices, didn’t try to stack the Court. 1/ 🧵
Rep. Stefanik went to just 8 out of 14 closed-door depositions. She asked a total of 5 questions, mostly polite, factual inquiries for Lt. Col. Vindman.
Then at public hearings she acted...differently.
Trumpism is a reality show, but with real-world impact
Kanye wasn't suspended for antisemitism, he was suspended for embarrassing Elon. Twitter's new management clearly doesn't think antisemitism is something to keep off the platform.
After suspending Kanye West for antisemitism,
@ElonMusk
has restored the account of Neo-Nazi Andrew Anglin, publisher of The Daily Stormer, the internet's largest neo-Nazi website.
Whatever you think of Elon Musk, positive, negative, or anything in between, most should be able to agree that no company, let alone an individual, should be in position to do this.
The sci-fi writer who coined the term “cyberspace” asking a question about relatively recent slang and getting the answer from the writer who coined Godwin’s Law is good Twitter.
You think “all politicians are corrupt” cynicism makes you wise, but it just makes you a mark. Your belief is false—some politicians are very corrupt, some modestly corrupt, some squeaky clean—and your false belief leads you to accept big corruption as normal when you shouldn’t.
No one fought at Valley Forge. But when the Continental Army camped at Valley Forge, Washington did mandate inoculations against a deadly virus. So there's that.
For rural America, it’s not enough to subsidize them, and get mail, internet, and healthcare to places the market would leave behind, but apparently you also must pretend that’s not happening lest you hurt their feelings.
And this, supposedly, is the attitude that respects them.
TO AMERICANS WHO OPPOSED THE TPP FROM THE LEFT:
The 11 other countries are moving forward, but scrapped labor and environmental protections the US got them to include.
Once again, you compared reality to imagined perfection rather than probable alternatives.
Over 13B COVID shots worldwide.
If antivaxxers were right, there should be millions of vaccine deaths, so many it couldn't be hidden. Most people should personally know someone who died of vaccines or was at least hospitalized, like with COVID itself.
But, you know, there aren't.
Peers, as in "jury of your peers," means fellow citizens. It does not mean subset of citizens who share the defendant's political views.
If someone does not want to face trial in front of a jury made up of Washington DC residents, I suggest not committing crimes in Washington DC.
None of the Jan. 6 defendants were convicted by "a jury of their peers". They were convicted in a deeply corrupt jurisdiction by a jury pool that is to the left of the nation on the ideological spectrum between 40 and 50 points.
Those lending the DC jurisdiction legitimacy are…
When your politics want the economy to be bad, and your information bubble says the economy is bad, but the data keeps showing the economy isn’t bad, you could consider the possibility that wishful thinking is distorting your analysis. Or you could declare that reality isn’t real
FBI: We have a warrant to investigate a Twitter user for sexual exploitation of children, the govt will reimburse any labor costs you incur, as per law.
Twitter Files: POLITICAL CENSORSHIP!
Erdogan: Help silence my political opponents before the election.
Twitter: Oh-kay!
Holy cow, did they actually talk themselves into believing that free speech means businesses are morally obligated to give them money no matter what they do?
Comer: Joe Biden leads a mafia family of corrupt int'l businesses!
Media: May we see the evidence?
Comer: We didn't find any. But whistleblowers showed us Hunter stuff that, if you use your imagination, is bad.
Media: May we speak to them?
Comer: Also no. We lost track of them.
Dear Media,
If you’re going to bring up Hunter Biden, note that Ukraine’s prosecutor general cleared him of all wrongdoing. He’s not worth bringing up much, but when you do, say it. Every single time.
Or you can let yourself get played again. Up to you.
There is no "right to eat dinner" in the Constitution. A textualist must conclude Americans don't have that right. Congress could've passed a statute, but hasn't.
It could reasonably fall under the right to privacy, but the SCOTUS majority doesn't seem to think that exists either
NEW: Justice Brett Kavanaugh had to exit through the rear of Morton's on Wednesday night after DC protestors showed up out front. A Morton's rep told me: "Politics … should not trample the freedom at play of the right to congregate and eat dinner."
Insane that it's a live possibility that "what happened to US democracy?" might be answered with "there was a pro-democracy and an anti-democracy party, and when the pro-democracy party had power, some members prioritized preserving a minority veto for the anti-democracy party."
Really not a fan of taking a complex foreign policy issue that spanned six presidential terms—with four quite different presidents; two from each party—and trying to shove it into preconceived partisan point-scoring.
If you actually care about child victims of sexual abuse, one of the worst things you can do is turn very serious words like “pedophile” and “groomer” into empty partisan insults.
Janet Yellen is one of the most impressive, most accomplished people in the world. She played a major role in preventing the global financial crisis from turning into a second Great Depression, heading off a lot of suffering. People pay her to speak at conferences. This is fine.
If you could handle the change from Lou Alcindor to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and the change from Cassius Clay to Muhammad Ali—both after they were already public figures—you can handle the change from Ellen Page to Elliot Page. I promise, you'll be OK. It doesn't actualy affect you.
I’m sorry, but someone with a Filipino flag in their name chastising a movie about an aspect of WWII for not centering the real victims, the Japanese — that’s too much. Yes, I know it’s Twitter, but even this must have limits.
Just saw OPPENHEIMER, an in-depth character exploration of the people who built the atomic bomb, a weapon of mass destruction that killed a quarter million Japanese civilians. Film is 3 hours long and features zero Japanese people.
OUT: Biden can’t speak coherently, he has dementia, his mind’s gone, he won’t take questions.
IN: Biden’s speaking so well in response to these questions, he must have gotten them in advance, prepared answers, memorized then, and drew upon them as needed, depending on the topic.
"Jane has two dads" isn't sex ed. A 6-year-old hears it and thinks "those are Jane's grownups, they control dessert" not "they fuck, but with different logistics than John's parents."
Forbidding it just tells kids with gay parents that their family is wrong. That they're lesser.
Tim Miller demands that he decide how and in what context your 6-year-old child is taught about same-sex marriage. Your opinions and your children are of no consequence to him. And if you don't let him have his way, he will be very hurt. Because he is the priority, not your kids.
Vaccinated people primarily blame Russia for war in Ukraine, unvaccinated tend to blame US, NATO, Ukraine, EU, poll of Austrians shows.
These shouldn’t correlate. One doesn’t cause the other.
But they share a cause: a transnational identity politics united in rejection of facts.
One of those cases where the gut feeling turns out to be right. A poll in Austria found that most vaccinated Austrians believe Russia is responsible for the war in Ukraine, while the unvaccinated mostly blame the US and NATO.
What a vicious lie.
I doubt anyone buys it unless they really want to, but just in case…
There’s nothing that US military equipment would do to help Hawaiians suffering from wildfires.
They’re not trade-offs. America can, and should, do both. Cutting one wouldn’t help the other.
It took almost six years, but we’ve gone from a prominent Democratic woman is bad for not caring about information security enough to a prominent Democratic woman is bad for caring about information security too much.
NEW: Kamala Harris has long felt that Bluetooth headphones are a security risk.
So, she insists on using wired ones, 3 fmr campaign aides told
@rubycramer
and me.
That Bluetooth phobia remains (if you look closely, you'll see the clump of wires in hand)
More Americans today say we’re in a recession than did two months ago, and in that time the economy grew at a rate of over 2% and created over 650k new jobs. Heck, even gas prices decreased.
I don’t know how to explain that expect that campaigns and media influence perceptions.
A bigger triumph of ideology and feelings and over science and evidence you will not see.
The antivax theories got a massive, robust real world test, and definitively failed.
That's why it often turns into media criticism—not the thing, but what someone else said about the thing.
Can't believe I have to say this, but "threat ruled false alarm" means they got a real warning, took appropriate precautions, and didn't find a bomb.
Forcing a children's hospital to temporarily shut down as cops sweep it for bombs is bad. Can't believe I have to say that either
Comey guessed Hillary would win and editorialized. Didn't want to look biased.
Obama guessed Hillary would win, and held back on Russia. Didn't want to look partisan.
Guessers said impeaching Trump for trying to extort Ukraine would hand him reelection.
Don't guess. Do your job.
NEW: Jan 6 committee leaders have passed important threshold, concluding they have enough evidence to send criminal referral to Garland/DOJ on Trump for at least 2 federal crimes. BUT … panel is now divided about whether sending referral is smart move.
Alex Jones is not a victim. He did something incredibly cruel—lying about and harassing people whose children were murdered—got sued over it, and lost in court.
That’s not cancel culture. That’s civil litigation doing what it’s supposed to do: getting victims some compensation.
Japan is in recession, the UK is in recession, Germany grew just 0.4% last year, China's stock market has fallen steadily since last April due to a popped real estate bubble.
US real GDP growth in 2023 was 2.5%, with a 3.3% rate in the 4th quarter.
America's doing something right
People who said impeachment handed Trump reelection, and Trump would respect the election results, and the Jan 6 Committee would either have no effect or would hand Republicans the midterms, now say prosecuting Trump helps him politically, and I'm skeptical of their track record.
Bud Light annual sales is about $4B, so no, they didn’t lose all that in a month.
Parent company Inbev’s stock is trading near a 52-week high.
But it’s probably better if culture warriors lie that their boycott is a success than lament failure and call for more drastic measures.
A state changing business regulations for the explicit purpose of harming a specific company that made political expressions the Governor doesn't like, with the Lt. Gov. promising to restore the regs if the company adjusts its speech, should have every 1A defender's hair on fire.
Newsmax host Eric Bolling: "Is there an opportunity for Disney to change their mind and say we will disregard this whole 'woke' agenda...and would the governor then say, 'fine, you can keep your status but we're gonna keep an eye on you now'?"
Florida Lt. Gov: "Sure!"
It was better when colonization meant “foreign power forcibly takes control, exploiting locals and extracting resources for its own benefit,” rather than “a European is somewhere outside Europe.”
Japan wasn't colonized in any meaningful sense by "Western" powers at any point in its history. European merchants were present in Japan during the period depicted and they even owned some land, but they were very much subject to the will of local daimyo and later the shogun. 1/
This is literally just two moms. A family, with parents and child loving each other.
Insistence that attacks on Disney, including by govt, are about protecting young kids from sexual content out the window. The complaint is about treating LGBT people as normal rather than lesser.
The degree to which prominent parts of Ronald Reagan's party have become supporters of Russian military aggression—and not just as a matter of opinion, but actively working to get Americans to favor Russia in a war against a US-friendly European democracy—is remarkable. And bad.
-Vast majority of people with mental health issues aren’t violent.
-They’re much more likely to be victims of violence than to commit it.
-Stigmatizing people with mental health issues is wrong.
-White supremacist terrorists acted on behalf of a shared ideology, like jihadists.
Massive cognitive dissonance from people who grew up believing fascists are evil hearing rhetoric today similar to 20th century fascists', finding it somewhat appealing, seeing evidence that it's fairly popular, and concluding it can't be fascism because its appealing and popular
Trump lawyer Jenna Ellis confirms that the memos Politico published in which she argued that the VP has the legal authority to single-handedly overrule the Electoral College and pick the president (he doesn't) and that Pence should do it (which he legally couldn't) are authentic.
Wondering how
@politico
thinks it’s responsible or ethical journalism to publish attorney-client privileged documents.
They admit they are the first to publish in their entirety the two Ellis memos, which both have the banner “ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED.”
Trump hatred persists.
OK, so we take the state assuming control of private businesses thing from socialism, but use it to force companies to act as message distributors for right-wing nationalist politicians. A "nationalist socialism" if you will. We can workshop the name later.
Biden ends the US war in Afghanistan, curtails drone strikes, and takes steps to legalize weed, and both the “anti-war” left and “libertarian” right hate him, do I have that right?
What America needs are Real Men, hard men, ones who can handle hard times, men like me, who are utterly terrified of American cities and publicly announce how afraid we are all the time.
Many times in the Trump era, if you described exactly what he did a few months before he did it, you’d get criticized as biased, paranoid, deranged. But none more than with his efforts to overturn election results. And no, most who dismissed the warnings haven’t reckoned with it.
Like Sinema, I believe the cause of the Civil War was abolitionists not working hard enough to get slavers on board with anti-slavery reforms. If only they had talked about slavery more, and tried to find a compromise (perhaps involving Missouri) everything would've been solved.
Aggressive white man yelling "I feel threatened" despite not being in any danger because someone asked him to follow the same rules as everyone else--rules that call for a minor individual inconvenience to get significant group benefit--is the perfect encapsulation of Trump 2020.
We said climate change is a hoax, we pushed conspiracy theories demonizing climate scientists, we insisted that more intense storms and higher floods coming more frequently was just random weather or not real, so why won't insurance companies cover property there, I don't get it.
As Ukrainian forces advance, spare a thought for the Chomskys and Corbyns, the Mearsheimers and Walts, the Carlsons and Greenwalds, and the bigoted weirdos who gushed over the "manliness" of Russian military ads; each insistent, for different reasons, that this couldn't happen.
Iran fired directly at a US military installation for the first time while Trump was president.
Also shot down a pricey US drone, attacked ships in the Gulf, and bombed oil fields in US partner Saudi Arabia.
Plus Trump let Iran out of nuclear restrictions in exchange for nothing.
“Iran would not have attacked…If I were president, they had no money they couldn’t attack.”
I know it’s not funny, and I know that the country is facing a catastrophe with this guy, but I have finally reached the point where I am bursting out laughing
One of the most insidious democracy-undermining moves Republicans have done is pass state laws that prevent counting of all votes on election night (eg in Pennsylvania) and then insist that not finishing the count on election night shows something’s wrong.
And people fall for it.
Vaccination rate correlates with POTUS vote down to the county level. Hard to see this and assume politics and media diets have nothing to do with vaccine decisions.
Turning Fauci into a caricatured villain, wanting Biden to fail, Fox blaring conspiracy theories: all factors.
6/x
Team Trump spent years setting up Hunter Biden as Hillary’s Emails 2.0.
Literally years. Even blocked legally allocated military aid to Ukraine to extort Zelensky into helping, which looks even worse now.
And it flopped.
That, still, is why they’re so upset about it.
Good thread.
Joe Biden, at the behest of the military-industrial complex, under the supervision of the reverse vampires, tricked Russia into invading Ukraine, and then tricked Ukraine into resisting, all to get a British artillery maker a new client, how do you people not see it?
The US previously used these howitzers in Afghanistan. Unfortunately for the manufacturer (BAE Systems in the UK) the Afghanistan market recently became unavailable. But wouldn't you know it, Biden opened up a brand new market in a matter of months. Now they're off to Ukraine! 🇺🇸
If Rudy Giuliani accidentally calls reporters while he's discussing shady activity, the chances foreign intelligence agencies have accessed his phone, and acquired leverage over him and people he's talked to, is high.
Sorry for the cold water. Now back to the butt-dial jokes.
The shift from "Attention everyone, I have an insult to share!" to "People insulted me, I'm such a victim" took a full day, but I bet we can get it under 24 hours next time.
“Neither left nor right” = right, possibly far right
“Free speech” = I speak, you shut up
“Centrist” = (1) aim for midpoint, (2) reactionary
“Heterodox” = conservative, esp. re: culture, but a little embarrassed
“Libertarian” = (1) conservative who smokes weed, (2) fascist
When I said the New Right uses a postmodern redefinition of "elites," "ruling class," and similar terms to mean "disagrees with me on culture war stuff"—a self-serving definition divorced from objective measures such as income, education level, or type of work—I wasn't kidding.
Dear QAnon,
The Deep State is real, but it’s not what you think. I’m telling you this now because storming the Capitol building has drawn the attention of the real Deep State and it’s important you understand what that means.
An open letter from me:
We strongly believe in free speech, except when private entities express a negative opinion about our favorite politicians and laws, then state power must crash down upon them. It's their fault, they were asking for it, and they could avoid it by shutting up. Because freedom.
I’ve a hard time squaring years of left-wing arguments that society should be hunting for any possible racist implication of words and symbols, even if unintended today, with the claim that “from the river to the sea” must be judged only by what the speaker says is in their heart
Elise Stefanik is a rising star.
I got that impression from the hearings, for the reasons others are criticizing her.
She's a smooth liar and willing to debase herself. If you think that means she hurt her career rather than helped it, you're predicting a change in GOP politics.
How would America react if the Capitol attack killed 50 instead of 5, with Pence and Pelosi executed over livestream, and Congress too shaken to finish the electoral vote certification that night?
Because that's how we should be reacting now.
Widely dunked on, but usefully illustrates a fairly widespread mindset: Culture war is something the left did to the right, then the right merely acted in self-defense, so now that they finally achieved a victory there can be peace if the left would just stop being so aggressive.
To understand US politics today, one of the most important data points is that big majorities of Republicans were appalled by Jan. 6 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine at first, but after sustained efforts from GOP political & media elites saying otherwise, they changed their mind.
SCOTUS rationale for gutting the EPA is basically the same as the rationale for gutting the Voting Rights Act: Congress passed a law, the text allows this, but a majority of the Justices don't like the policy, so they go outside the text to say Congress can't and has to redo it.
1870-71: Franco-Prussian War, 433K dead
1914-1918: WWI, 17.6M dead, including 116K Americans
1939-1945: WWII, 54M dead in Europe, including 277K Americans
1949: NATO founded
1949-Present: No major European wars
2018: "NATO's stupid. What does it do for us anyway?"
I find the argument that the woke left controls all of America's major cultural institutions unpersuasive given the evidence.
These are all from NY Times in the last 24 hours.
Learning about awful things in US history, especially the Confederacy, is “humiliating” to white Americans today only if they choose to identify with it.
Germany does a lot of WWII and Holocaust history. They don’t fly Nazi flags for “heritage” or make it core to their identity.
NEW: Gov. Tate Reeves signed a so-called "CRT ban" into law today, claiming that critical race theory serves only to "indoctrinate" children and "humiliate" white people.
But he admitted last June that CRT is not even taught in any Mississippi classrooms.
BREAKING: Seeing an unprecedented coup attempt in the US, one actively stoked using their website, Twitter execs didn’t follow established rules that didn’t account for that exact scenario, but instead scrambled, debated, and settled on an ad hoc response! Can you believe it?!?!?
It *was* decided at the ballot box. Trump lost.
Then he tried to decide it via lawsuit. He lost all those too.
Then he tried to decide it illegitimately and illegally, conspiring to defraud the people of Georgia, and the country, out of their election results.
That’s the problem.
Graham:.This should be decided at the ballot box and not in a bunch of liberal jurisdictions trying to put the man in jail. They’re weaponizing the law
This man is a liar. Those of you who take him at his word, and especially those who get publicly mad at whoever he claims is victimizing him, are giant suckers—marks—and should stop doing that. Have some self-respect.
1) Let the people decide
2) If the people decide they prefer a different president, try an illegal coup to reverse their decision
3) If you fail to overthrow the people's decision and you broke the law trying to, you can't be held legally accountable because <return to step 1>
Speech:
“Lock her up”
“Not my president”
“Let’s go Brandon”
Challenging election results in court
Not speech:
Fraud.
Forcefully disrupting a govt proceeding.
Preventing proper counting of votes.
Conspiring to do any of those.
I don’t think this distinction is hard to understand
Kyrsten Sinema says Dems should let a GOP minority block popular legislation because if it passes, and the American people don't like it, they'll vote GOP, who will be able to reverse it, and stopping them from hypothetically reversing a policy that never passes takes priority.
If Biden tries to win over Americans who might be open to voting for him, that might anger some Americans who insist they’d never vote for him, as well as their non-American boosters. Oh no.
Some elites felt like their elite circles moved left on language regarding race and gender, and they did not like it, so they declared that the entire country, all of politics, had veered dramatically left, with some even supporting state crackdowns on speech to try to stop it.
To be clear, the phenomenon I’m referring to is mostly happening outside of Washington - in places like academia, medicine, media, and publishing. It’s what’s happening in those places that has alienated many people who used to feel at home on the left.
$8T is a decade of total US defense spending. US aid sent to Ukraine is worth about $40B. That’s about 5% of one year’s US military budget. And it’s from equipment stockpiles, not cash.
This BS isn’t a minor error. It flips the cost-benefit calculation.
Liars playing on emotion.
“We spent $16 trillion on the lockdowns. We got nothing for it. $8 trillion on the Ukraine war. That’s $24 trillion that they had to print to pay for nothing. That money, the way they’re paying it back, it’s a hidden tax called inflation, and it hits the poor and the middle…
More Americans want a president who sounds like a pleasant normie on holidays than like a raving lunatic.
I will continue believing this unless proven otherwise. And I don’t expect to be.
It’s not hard to understand that by “unity” Biden means basic things like rule of law and acknowledging factual reality. His inaugural said we’ll disagree, but should unify on addressing disagreement within democratic parameters.
Bad faith interpretations like this can be ignored
So blaming these terrorist attacks on mental health is, at best, a dodge.
But if you say the cause is mental health problems, and you push to cut mental health services, what does that say about what you really think about the terrorist attacks?
Sinema: The filibuster forces bipartisan compromise.
McConnell: We officially reject bipartisan compromise to avoid default and will abuse the filibuster to either crash the economy or force a partisan workaround that we’ll denounce in bad faith.
Sinema: Ah well, nevertheless.
If you believe Russia had a plausible justification for invading Ukraine (illegal bioweapons labs!) and didn’t bother bringing it up until after the war started, went poorly, and Russia’s attempt to justify it with false claims of genocide flopped, I’ve got a bridge to sell you.
Many misunderstand the Flynn case because they don’t know the difference between counterintelligence and law enforcement.
Flynn was in big counterintel trouble, and got to plead guilty to a small criminal charge because he gave info to help FBI/Mueller counterintel investigation.
Everyone knows this is false, right?
I’m not saying Twitter enforced its rules against left more than right or anything. I’m saying Weiss didn’t show this, didn’t do the things needed to test it, and empirical analysis—but not preconceived grievance narrative—would recognize that
Much of media sees its job as making this chart balance out.
So one thing on the Biden side must match multiple things on the Trump side.
Otherwise, more negative facts about Trump might result in him coming across more negatively in coverage, which would be "unfair" and "biased"
Did Hillary Clinton's nefarious plan include making Paul Manafort the campaign chair (for free!), getting Trump to ask for Russia's help on live TV, and getting Don Jr. to eagerly respond in writing to Russian govt reps offering assistance?
Because if so... Wow, what a trick.
Are Democrats really denying that Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2016 had a plan to frame Donald Trump for colluding with Russia’s election interference? Because I didn’t need Durham’s report to know that’s true. My source on this is Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2016.
Holy crap. Florida’s COVID vaccine study found no risk of cardiac death in young men, or a minuscule risk that was far outweighed by the risk of COVID-caused heart problems, but distorted it until they could say otherwise.
Lying and hurting public health to pander to antivaxxers.
You may recall Florida's vaccine analysis which claimed that mRNA vaccines are associated with increased risk of cardiac death in young men.
This week,
@TB_Times
published earlier, unpublished drafts of that analysis.
Those earlier drafts tell a dramatically different story...