Adam Carlson @admcrlsn Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Adam Carlson

@admcrlsn

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Recovering political pollster (formerly @gsg ), current market researcher, and election nerd. Spreadsheets help me relax. Views are my own.

Brooklyn, NY

https://t.co/UyHBETzcgW

Joined December 2009

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@admcrlsn

Adam Carlson

2 months

8 months out from the election, polls are still suggesting 2024 will be the largest racial realignment since the Civil Rights Act was passed Here are the aggregated crosstabs from non-partisan GE polls from reputable pollsters fielded in Feb 2024 First up is Biden vs Trump 🧵

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@admcrlsn

Adam Carlson

4 months

This photo is so much funnier now

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Adam Carlson

3 months

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@asymmetricinfo

Megan McArdle

@asymmetricinfo

3 months

Becoming clear that an entire generation of younger progressives whose political character was formed during the Obama admin take the extra-gentle media treatment he got as the baseline to which any Dem president is entitled. Hence their indignation when we do our jobs.

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Adam Carlson

22 days

The effects of AOC’s pivot to becoming slightly more pragmatic: On one hand, she’ll lose the respect of dozens of online leftists who think she’s betrayed The Cause On the other hand, she’ll now probably be a Senator at the very least, and will actually get things accomplished

@PrernaJagadeesh

Prerna Jagadeesh

@PrernaJagadeesh

22 days

Biden on @AOC : "I learned long ago to listen to that lady"

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Adam Carlson

4 months

“Biden should forgive all student loan debt by executive order!” “Biden should have codified Roe by executive order!” “Biden needs congressional approval to bomb slaver pirate terrorists that attacked US civilian ships!” I am begging you all to take a high school civics class

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Adam Carlson

19 days

September 14, 2020:

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@PatrickRuffini

Patrick Ruffini

@PatrickRuffini

20 days

The idea that 2024 will be the last democratic election if Trump wins is disinformation on the order of the 2020 election being stolen. If people are this confident in this, they should be willing to put money on the 2028 election being canceled.

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Adam Carlson

29 days

If Biden fell asleep at any public event every political reporter in America would be calling on him to drop out

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Adam Carlson

2 months

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@1776Railfan

The MAGA Railfan🇺🇲

2 months

And there's zero straight White men allowed in the modern day Democratic Party.

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Adam Carlson

4 months

Any two random people off the street

@Dean24Official

Team Dean

@Dean24Official

4 months

Name a more iconic duo. We’ll wait. 🇺🇸 @AndrewYang @deanbphillips

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Adam Carlson

2 months

This is an insane perspective for many reasons, but a few things: - You may not think it’s enough, but the Democratic Party is the most progressive it’s ever been - If Biden loses it’ll pivot to the center (as it did after being locked out of power from 1980-1992), not the left

@francescamar6

Francesca

2 months

biden has to lose, if he wins we are locked into his version of the democratic party forever. we’ll survive a second trump term but the world can’t survive the current american political status quo, something has to give

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Adam Carlson

1 month

People who say “both of these choices are horrible let’s just overthrow the system” never really have a good follow-up for what happens to America’s most vulnerable people in the interim period when the authoritarians are in power and you’re all planning this supposed revolution

@aamer_rahman

Aamer Rahman

1 month

"You want Trump to come back?"

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Adam Carlson

4 months

Update: Still nothing from the New York Times on Abbott openly defying a Supreme Court order, but this is on their homepage:

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@admcrlsn

Adam Carlson

4 months

Greg Abbott is openly defying a Supreme Court ruling and essentially daring Biden to take control of the Texas National Guard New York Times: “Nah we’re not gonna cover that, we need to stay locked in on Nikki Haley’s dress and a $1.7 million toilet”

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Adam Carlson

4 months

Gentle reminder that Dean Phillips gave up a safe House seat for this because he was swindled by a bunch of consultants. Good night, sweet Gelato King. History will forget you.

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Adam Carlson

13 days

My honest answer — 2016 radicalized me into becoming a pragmatist. My primary ideology became defeating as many Rs as possible rather than needing my president/party to align with my views on every single issue. And I have zero patience for anyone who gets in the way of that.

@dcmayo

David Mayo 🦜

13 days

@admcrlsn Why are you just shitting on the left constantly? What is your purpose in doing so?

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Adam Carlson

2 months

“The elite discourse around Biden and his age has been so negative”

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@Nate_Cohn

Nate Cohn

2 months

SOTU doesn’t usually matter, no. But the elite discourse around Biden and his age has been so negative and there’s so much slack in Biden’s numbers among traditional Democratic groups that it’s easy to see how even a typical performance could be unusually helpful

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Adam Carlson

1 month

I think a 7-2 conservative majority on the Supreme Court is much worse than a 6-3 conservative majority

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@TonyMoonbeam

Imperium Bidenica Elektor

1 month

Folks, there is no difference between a 6-3 and a 7-2 and you all should stop wetting the fucking bed over it. There is nothing to gain to replace Sotomayor and about 8-9 lower court judges to lose.

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Adam Carlson

3 months

Give me a fucking break

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 months

Revealed preferences tell you a lot. Biden isn't doing a Super Bowl interview for the second year in a row; Biden did one in 2021 and Obama did one all 8 years. If he can't do a Super Bowl interview, h3 shouldn't be running for a second term.

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Adam Carlson

3 months

The 2024 election if we only saw this version of Biden on the campaign trail

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Adam Carlson

14 days

I keep forgetting that Joe Biden controls the NYPD

@DavidAstinWalsh

David Austin Walsh

@DavidAstinWalsh

14 days

I was gonna vote for Biden in November -- for labor and also obviously to keep Trump out of office -- but after tonight... Man, I don't know.

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Adam Carlson

12 days

Every. Single. Time.

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@soulkhan

soul khan

12 days

this might as well be his concession speech

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Adam Carlson

17 days

Every single tweet from a New York Times reporter since that Politico story dropped just further confirms how shaken they all are by it, and how little self-awareness they have at how they are coming across. You are not special. You are not beyond criticism. Get over yourselves.

@katierogers

Katie Rogers

18 days

Seven months after Trump, a frequent Howard Stern guest in his pre-presidency years, called the host a "broken weirdo," Stern has invited Biden on his show for a softball interview. So far, Biden has taken every opportunity to strike a character contrast with Trump.

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Adam Carlson

3 months

Incredible

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@Nate_Cohn

Nate Cohn

3 months

It is my duty to tell you, yet again, that the NY-3 special election result will not tell us anything about the general election

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Adam Carlson

2 months

Everyone on here, apparently: *Uncommitted does slightly better than expected in one state* OH MY GOD BIDEN IS GONNA LOSE MINNESOTA *Trump continues to underperform polling & put up very unimpressive numbers against Haley for a pseudo-incumbent* THIS MEANS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING

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Adam Carlson

7 months

Ladies and gentlemen, your cheat sheet to the 9 Republican candidates for Speaker of the House:

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@JakeSherman

Jake Sherman

7 months

🚨🚨BREAKING — NINE GOP candidates for speaker. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, Republican Conference Vice Chair Mike Johnson, RSC Chair Kevin Hern (Okla.), Reps. Byron Donalds (Fla.), Austin Scott (Ga.), Jack Bergman (Mich.), Pete Sessions (Texas), Gary Palmer (Ala.) and Dan…

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Adam Carlson

4 months

Very quietly and very gradually AOC — both in rhetoric and House voting record — has become much more pragmatic than her fellow Squad members. She’s still true to her convictions but doesn’t burn bridges just to virtue signal to/placate the left. And I absolutely love it.

@CaseStudyQB

CaseStudyQB - #CeaseFireNOW

4 months

NBC News - 1/28/2024 - @AOC says Biden is "virtually the nominee of the party" and says he's the strongest person to take on Trump "Especially when you look at this field, we have @deanbphillips and @marwilliamson ...Pres. Biden without question is the strongest... "

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Adam Carlson

2 months

Haley is just shy of ~150K votes (15%) in Florida with 85% reporting. Must be all those Democrats and Independents crossing over to vote for her again! … Wait, what’s that? It’s a closed primary? Wow. I didn’t know that. I just — you’re telling me now for the first time.

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Adam Carlson

24 days

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@JaneMayerNYer

Jane Mayer

24 days

Biden hasn't given a single in-depth interview in 3 1/2 years to the New York Times, Washington Post or Wall Street Journal. Trump's no better. This isn't normal.

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Adam Carlson

3 months

Hope this helps

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@ninaturner

Nina Turner

3 months

Democratic talking heads keep saying if Trump is elected, Republicans will pass a national abortion ban. To do this, it would have to pass the House & Senate. So the question is: why didn’t Democrats codify Roe when they held the House & Senate in 2022?

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Adam Carlson

4 months

🚨 RATING CHANGE 🚨 Neptune moves from Likely Democrat to Tilt Democrat

@JMannhart

Jonathan Mannhart

4 months

Woah, Neptune is actually light blue! We'd been misinformed for 35 years! The well-known images from Voyager 2 were not accurately colour balanced & apparently they also increased the contrast way more than for the Uranus images. Here the corrected ones:

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Adam Carlson

2 months

1) That’s quite literally what a ceasefire is 2) If Biden himself flew over there and single handedly brokered an indefinite peace deal between Israel & Hamas & somehow got Netanyahu to resign, his critics would say “I still won’t vote for him, he should’ve done this months ago”

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zellie

2 months

A ceasefire with an expiration date isn’t a ceasefire.

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Adam Carlson

4 months

Oh they’re not fucking around

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@sahilkapur

Sahil Kapur

4 months

New Biden campaign ad features a woman who says she had to flee Texas to end a planned pregnancy after the doctors said the fetus had no chance of survival. “Because of Donald Trump overturning Roe v. Wade.”

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Adam Carlson

3 months

Inject it directly into my veins

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Adam Carlson

5 months

Oh sweetie. Bless your heart. This ruling was for the state legislative maps, not the House.

@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

5 months

Gonna be funny when Democrats win the House but lose the Senate (and maybe the presidency?)

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Adam Carlson

3 months

People who say shit like this don’t actually care about the future of this country, or the irreparable damage that another Trump presidency would do to it. All they really care about is being able to say “I told you so” if Biden loses to gain clout or relevance. And it’s gross.

@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 months

You don't demonstrate your seriousness that Trump is an existential threat to democracy by going through the motions to renominate an 81-year-old with a 38% approval rating who 75% of voters think is too old without giving anyone a choice because that's just how things are done.

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Adam Carlson

1 month

Reading is hard, I get it

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Adam Carlson

3 months

Iowa Caucus: • Final 538 Avg: Trump +37 (over RDS) • Final Result: Trump +30 New Hampshire Primary: • Final 538 Avg: Trump +18 • Final Result: Trump +11 South Carolina Primary: • Final 538 Avg: Trump +28 • Estimated Result (per NYT): Trump +20

@tbonier

Tom Bonier

3 months

Another primary, another overrepresentation of Trump's strength in pre-election polls. But there's no reason to believe that might also be the case in the general election polls, right?

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Adam Carlson

2 months

In what world is this not an enthusiastic endorsement?

@AlexThomp

Alex Thompson

2 months

Mark Cuban backs Biden (not super enthusiastically): “If they were having his last wake, and it was him versus Trump, and he was being given last rites, I would still vote for Joe Biden" @josh_wingrove reports

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Adam Carlson

22 days

Genuinely don’t get what’s so difficult to understand about the difference between Netanyahu/IDF brass vs. Jewish people just trying to go about their daily lives

@visegrad24

Visegrád 24

23 days

Yale students form a human chain to block a Jewish student from entering the University

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Adam Carlson

3 months

Nope nope. Cook rated NY-03 as a Toss-Up through the election, you don’t get to do revisionist history.

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@Redistrict

Dave Wasserman

3 months

New @CookPolitical : in the end, it wasn't particularly close. Four takeaways from Suozzi and Democrats' big win in #NY03 special.

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Adam Carlson

4 months

He’s right, Democrats should simply nominate whoever beat Trump in 2020 and call it a day

@AndrewYang

Andrew Yang🧢⬆️🇺🇸

4 months

Democrats managed to lose to Trump in ‘16 by anointing a flawed candidate in Hillary Clinton. And they have learned . . . nothing in ‘24.

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Adam Carlson

3 months

I’ve seen enough. The American educational system is officially is an unmitigated failure.

@saddymayo

saddy mayonnaise

3 months

*checks notes* yeah no I did recall correctly that roe v wade was reversed under Biden and nothing has happened since to correct it on a federal level.

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Adam Carlson

4 months

Wake up, Democrats! Our only path to victory this November is nominating a guy that won 1 out of 234 townships (0.004%) in the New Hampshire primary against someone who wasn’t even on the ballot.

@deanbphillips

Dean Phillips

4 months

Worst approval since Jimmy Carter, who got crushed by Reagan. 4 points BELOW Donald Trump at the same point. Down 8 in Michigan & Georgia. Is anyone paying attention?

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Adam Carlson

3 months

As someone who read Ezra’s piece in full, I don’t think it’s worth reading unless you enjoy feeling anxious & pinning your hopes on West Wing-esque fantasies Talking ad nauseam about Biden’s age only feeds the beast Biden will be the nominee. Get on board or get out of the way

@jonfavs

Jon Favreau

3 months

Even if you don't agree with where he lands, it's worth reading @ezraklein 's Biden piece, especially since a LOT of Democrats share his exact concern: yes, Biden's a good man, has been a great president, and isn't too old for the job. But because he looks and sounds so much older…

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Adam Carlson

3 months

Per CNN/SSRS, only 5% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents cite Middle East/Israel as their biggest concern about Biden This is a rebellion that is mostly happening online

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@USA_Polling

Polling USA

3 months

Among DEM - Top 7 Biggest Concerns About Biden: His Age/Too Old: 46% Economy/Inflation: 6% Middle East/Israel: 5% Mental Competence/Senility: 5% Concerns About Popularity: 4% Not Doing A Good Job: 3% Not Progressive Enough: 3% SSRS / Jan 30, 2024 / n=442

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Adam Carlson

3 months

This quote is going to be really funny when she endorses him

@Acyn

Acyn

3 months

Haley: He mocked my husband's military service. If you have something to say, don't say it behind my back. Get on a debate stage and say it to my face. If you mock the service of a veteran, you don't deserve a driver's license let alone being President of the United States.

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Adam Carlson

10 months

I used to work at HarrisX — the firm that conducted this poll — & managed their political polling (was the wrong fit for many reasons & I quit after 10 months) All I’ll say is there’s a reason they don’t detail their methodology & you shouldn’t trust a single thing they release

@IAPolls2022

InteractivePolls

10 months

🇺🇲 2024 Presidential Election Poll (R) Trump 46% (+4) (D) Biden 42% Independents (R) Trump 42% (+8) (D) Biden 34% Net 4-point swing towards Trump from previous poll (was: 44/44) ⦿ @TheMessenger / @Harris_X_ ⦿ 922 RV | July 21-24 | MoE: ±3.2%

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Adam Carlson

4 months

This aged like a fine wine

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@mikescollins

Mike Scollins

4 months

Eric Adams teaches you how to search your child's room. Truly New York's weirdest guy.

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Adam Carlson

13 days

Not sure why Blinken hasn’t told Netanyahu that the Toledo city council passed a resolution urging a ceasefire, seems like a missed opportunity to achieve peace

@BarakRavid

Barak Ravid

13 days

BREAKING: Netanyahu told Blinken during their meeting today he won't accept a deal that will include ending the war. He said if Hamas doesn't drop this demand there will be no deal and Israel will invade Rafah, per Israeli and U.S. officials

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Adam Carlson

3 months

Something to keep in mind when you see tweets like this from reporters perpetuating narratives that they helped create — the Biden admin has been awful for their employers’ revenue, especially relative to the Trump years Four more years of Biden would be disastrous for them

@Olivianuzzi

Olivia Nuzzi

3 months

And the Democratic Party is on track to nominate a man who is nevertheless losing to him in most polls.

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Adam Carlson

8 months

Per new CNN poll, two-thirds of registered Democrats/Dem-leaning independents want to nominate someone other than Biden But when they’re asked if there’s anyone in particular they’d like to see nominated over Biden, 82% can’t name anyone specific that they want Incredible stuff

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Adam Carlson

2 months

God I *wish* the Democratic Party was this organized, strategic, and powerful

@charliekirk11

Charlie Kirk

2 months

More and more clear the collapsing GOP House position has been orchestrated by Democrats. They saw a slim majority and instead of giving up, they went to work. They helped get rid of McCarthy as speaker. They led the charge with the help of Republicans to remove Santos from…

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Adam Carlson

3 months

Dick Gephardt is a patriot 🫡

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@GregTSargent

Greg Sargent

3 months

No Labels' spoiler bid has suddenly entered full meltdown mode. No serious candidates are interested. The group's public justifications are increasingly ludicrous. Time to pull the plug. We have lots of new reporting and info in this piece. 1/ Link:

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Adam Carlson

28 days

RCP appears to be refusing to add the latest national polls from Politico/Morning Consult (Biden +2) and Echelon Insights (Biden +3) to their average just so Trump can cling to a nominal lead. Many major media outlets still regularly cite them and their averages.

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Adam Carlson

2 months

Even if Biden’s SOTU doesn’t end up persuading a single undecided voter, this is the most fired up I’ve seen rank-and-file Dems all cycle And that’s been the big missing thing —enthusiasm. That translates to volunteering, donations & a genuine belief he can win And that matters

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Adam Carlson

6 months

Pretty wild that this was the Senate map just 13 years ago. Feels like a West Wing-esque fever dream.

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Adam Carlson

3 months

For the third straight election — after an attempted insurrection — the media is treating this like a normal election instead of the existential crisis that it is Pledging to not defend NATO allies from Russia should be the lead story everywhere But no, let’s focus on Biden old

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@BidenHQ

Biden-Harris HQ

3 months

Trump says he would encourage Russia to attack NATO allies: I said I would not protect our NATO allies. In fact, I would encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they want

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Adam Carlson

3 months

This is an unpopular opinion, but Democrats should be thankful for Joe Manchin. He’s a Democratic Senator from WV, the second-most Republican state in the 2020 presidential election. He’s voted to confirm almost all of Biden’s judicial nominees & shuts down bullshit like this.

@burgessev

Burgess Everett

3 months

News: Manchin whacks Mayorkas impeachment in interview, says there shouldn't be Senate trial "It's crap. Pure crap. No trial at all, it's ridiculous. The trial will be in November. No...You got a problem, go to the polls." Senate can dismiss w majority

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Adam Carlson

3 months

You are watching to see if "Uncommitted" can hit 15%. I am watching to see if the corpse of Marianne Williamson's campaign can outperform Dean Phillips. We are not the same.

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Adam Carlson

5 days

Senator-In-Waiting Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

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@demsocsean

Sean

5 days

Thanks to the crosstabs provided by Sam we can see that AOC has 71/11! favorability with NYS Dems, 52/26 favorability in NYC, 55/21 favorability with Latinos and 58/6 favorability with black voters! Weird how the polling constantly contradicts the narratives we hear.

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Adam Carlson

1 month

“Why won’t Biden call for a ceasefire?!” [Biden calls for immediate ceasefire and within hours extracts major humanitarian aid concessions] “Well I still can’t in good conscience vote for him, he should have done this months ago.” [Biden courts Haley voters] “How dare you.”

@Blake_Allen13

Blake Allen

1 month

Not only are the Israelis opening the Erez crossing for aid, they’re also allowing aid to be transported to Ashdod for unloading as well. Combine this with the IDF reworking their engagement rules/reprimanding & firing command stuff, Biden must’ve set one heck of a red line

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Adam Carlson

4 months

I’m convinced the person running this account is a deep cover Democrat They mostly post videos of Biden doing normal/relatable shit (e.g. eating ice cream) or giving some of his better speeches Like no one reasonable that watches this video thinks he’s confused, just pissed off

@RNCResearch

RNC Research

4 months

A VERY confused Joe Biden starts absolutely SCREAMING as he recounts the recycled "suckers and losers" hoax — slurring the entire way. The man is NOT well. 😳

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Adam Carlson

4 months

New bumper sticker just dropped

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@Acyn

Acyn

4 months

Giuliani: It was sexual assault, not rape.

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Adam Carlson

3 months

I abhor partisan gerrymandering. It's undemocratic. We should pass a nationwide ban on it. But until we do, there's no reason that Democrats should unilaterally disarm. Let's go nuclear.

@nicklalota

Nick LaLota 🗽💪🇺🇸🫡

3 months

NYS Dems aren’t being the least bit shy about their attempt to gerrymander the heck out of NY’s Congressional districts. Where’s the outrage from the press and the so-called good government groups who have assailed red states for partisan hyper gerrymandering?

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Adam Carlson

3 months

New York Democrats did what New York Democrats do. They continue their streak of being the most toothless, out of touch & politically inept state party in the US. If Dems fall 2-3 seats short of flipping the House in November, you can blame Carl Heastie & Andrea Stewart-Cousins

@LoganR2WH

Logan Phillips

3 months

We've had a surprising series of events in New York. New York Democrats in the state legislature appeared to be doing everything they could to gear up for a mega-gerrymander. Instead, they are on track to pass a map that remains highly competitive and balanced.

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Adam Carlson

3 months

The Democratic strategist:

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@abbyvesoulis

Abby Vesoulis

3 months

A Democratic strategist close to the White House tells me: “It’s not just Biden’s worst day as president. It’s Trump’s best day since Biden has been president.”

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Adam Carlson

20 days

This is not how polling momentum works. I expect this type of framing from random Twitter users with 8 numbers in their handle, not the chief White House Correspondent for the New York Times.

@peterbakernyt

Peter Baker

20 days

Recent momentum for Biden has faded in swing states, according to new poll by @Bloomberg and @MorningConsult . Trump leads in NC (+10), Nev. (+8), Ariz. (+7), Ga. (+6), Wisc. (+4) and Pa. (+1). Biden edges Trump in only one swing state, Mich. (+2).

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Adam Carlson

4 months

I don’t want to see Chris Sununu and the word “moderate” in the same sentence ever again

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Aaron Rupar

4 months

the leaders of Trumpistan

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Adam Carlson

7 months

Jake Sherman’s account rn: • JIM JORDAN is VERY close to becoming 56th Speaker • PANERA BREAD is the food of choice tonight for the House GOP Conference • Repost: “Only the IDF can be trusted right now” • JIM JORDAN’s bid to be Speaker is in dire trouble & ALWAYS has been

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Adam Carlson

3 months

This is not the first time I’ve wondered what the alternate timeline is like where Biden appointed Doug Jones as Attorney General instead of Merrick Garland

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John Hasson

3 months

INSANE leak from the WH (Per Politico) Recently, Biden has complained that “had Garland moved sooner in his investigation into former President Donald Trump’s election interference, a trial may already be underway or even have concluded.”

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Adam Carlson

4 months

I see this a lot: “Obama should’ve codified Roe when he had a Senate supermajority & big House majority from 2009-2010” Either folks are too young or memory-holed how many truly conservative Ds there were then Obama barely got a watered down healthcare bill passed w/ those #’s

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Doctor Emmit L Brown

4 months

@DarkNikkiStan Democrats had the majority a number of times and they never codified Roe vs. Wade.

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Adam Carlson

6 months

Before you start panicking or celebrating as votes start to roll in tomorrow, here's what to expect: KY Blue mirage, then red shift (early vote drops first) OH Blue mirage, then red shift NJ & PA Depends on the county VA Red mirage, then blue shift (E-Day vote drops first)

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Adam Carlson

3 months

A lot of people will blame the media for this. And they are absolutely correct.

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Larry Sabato

3 months

WHY DEMS HAVE A RIGHT TO BE FRUSTRATED: Trump ordered Congress Rs to kill the border bill. They did as told. So who gets the blame? Biden (49%), not Trump (38%). (ABC News/Ipsos)

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Adam Carlson

2 months

NOTHING IS KIMPOSSIBLE

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@wildstein

David Wildstein

2 months

🚨🚨🚨 Scoop: Tammy Murphy is dropping out of the U.S. Senate race in New Jersey.

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Adam Carlson

4 months

Takes two brain cells to realize maybe she doesn’t want her or her family to be subjected to more racist attacks from the right/media What *is* mind-bogglingly selfish is having considerable reach & using it to doom about Biden 24/7 just to boost your engagement/follower count

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Adam Carlson

3 months

Pre-writing NYT headlines for the NY-03 special election: Suozzi wins by 5+ pts: “Suozzi’s Win Means Nothing for November” Suozzi wins by <5 pts: “Suozzi’s Narrow Win is a Warning Sign for Democrats in November” Suozzi loses: “Suozzi’s Loss is a Five-Alarm Fire for Democrats”

@IAPolls2022

InteractivePolls

3 months

📊 NY-3 POLL: @SienaResearch Suozzi (D): 48% (+4) Pilip (R): 44% — Among likely special election voters, Trump Tops Biden by 5 Points, 47-42. — • 538 rank: #1 (3.0/3.0) | ±4.2% • 2/3-6 | D39/R39/I20 | 694 LV

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Adam Carlson

3 months

Uncommitted getting 12-14% is the purgatory nightmare outcome for horrible takes (on both sides). And it seems like that's exactly where we're heading. God help us all.

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Adam Carlson

19 days

I’ve read a fair amount of replies to the Politico story from NYT reporters, and to me they’ve only reinforced: 1) How out of touch they are — only journalists care about how many interviews he’s done 2) How special they think NYT is — unable to handle any criticism whatsoever

@AsteadWH

Astead

19 days

@JohnJHarwood The frame of this story is just Twitter bait bs. Biden hasn’t done an interview with any major newspaper and has done the fewest interviews of any recent president

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Adam Carlson

30 days

Very quietly, RFK Jr.’s average vote share in national polls has been shrinking in since he announced his independent bid in October: Oct: 13.2% Nov: 13.5% Dec: 11.2% Jan: 9.7% Feb: 11.3% Mar: 9.9% Apr (so far): 8.0%

@DrewSav

Drew Savicki

1 month

Reminder: in order to get on the debate stage RFK Jr. needs to hit 15% in an average if five polls chosen by the Commission. He's not hitting 15% in any polls.

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Adam Carlson

4 months

Now that we have close to to final numbers in NH, Biden (as a write-in) outperformed his statewide vote share in the bigger college towns: Durham (UNH): 71% Hanover (Dartmouth): 79% Statewide: 64% If Biden's in trouble with the youths, we didn't see much evidence of it in NH

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Adam Carlson

4 months

Meanwhile, Biden is holding up well in NH college towns Not all townships have finished processing their write-in votes so we don't have a Biden statewide number But he's at 71% in Durham (UNH) & 79% in Hanover (Dartmouth) -- both are likely to be at/above his statewide total

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Adam Carlson

4 months

Greg Abbott is openly defying a Supreme Court ruling and essentially daring Biden to take control of the Texas National Guard New York Times: “Nah we’re not gonna cover that, we need to stay locked in on Nikki Haley’s dress and a $1.7 million toilet”

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@GregAbbott_TX

Greg Abbott

4 months

My statement on Texas’ constitutional right to self-defense.

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Adam Carlson

2 months

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@PpollingNumbers

Political Polls

@PpollingNumbers

2 months

#NEW General Election Poll 🔵 Biden 43% (+5) 🔴 Trump 38% IPSOS #17 - 3,356 RV - 3/13

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Adam Carlson

3 months

9pm ET: "Holy shit is Uncommitted gonna hit 20% statewide?" 12:30am ET: "Holy shit Uncommitted isn't gonna hit 20% in any county"

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Adam Carlson

4 days

Evergreen

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@MeidasTouch

MeidasTouch

4 days

NEW: Senator Katie Britt, who creeped out America following her bizarre State of the Union response, has introduced a bill to create a federal database of pregnant Americans.

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Adam Carlson

2 months

All Sinema had to do was be a normie Democrat, not be a fucking weirdo, and not be a shill for private equity and she could have held that seat for a couple of decades.

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Adam Carlson

26 days

It’s pretty neat to watch Republicans potentially piss away a once-in-a-generation Senate map in real time

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@EricHovde

Eric Hovde

26 days

I didn’t say seniors shouldn’t be able to vote. I said there are voting discrepancies in nursing homes. That’s a fact. Plain and simple. The media is twisting my words because they don’t want to acknowledge the problems.

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Adam Carlson

2 months

On the other hand, Biden has a stutter

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Adam Carlson

3 months

Time to call her out of the bullpen

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@JakeSherman

Jake Sherman

3 months

I've seen a lot of embarrassing days for different House Republican leadership teams. This one is pretty high on the list. They lost a vote to impeach Mayorkas. And then they lost a vote to send $17.6 billion to Israel. They didn't need to vote on the israel bill today. They…

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Adam Carlson

11 days

Not sure where this guy got his PhD in Poli Sci from, but Democrats: • Have won 3 of the last 4 presidential elections (and have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8) • Had a historically strong midterm in 2022 • Are absolutely dominating in specials/off-year elections

@YousefMunayyer

Yousef Munayyer

@YousefMunayyer

12 days

Democrats keep losing elections because liberals are more happy to partner with conservatives to defeat progressives than to partner with progressives to defeat conservatives.

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Adam Carlson

4 months

This poll is cute and all, but if Trump loses to Biden in 2024 (and is still breathing) he’ll still be the runaway favorite to win the GOP nomination in 2028

@USA_Polling

Polling USA

4 months

2028 GOP Presidential Polling: DeSantis: 27% Haley: 19% Ramaswamy: 18% Carlson: 6% Youngkin: 2% Lake: 2% Echelon / Jan 18, 2024 / n=832

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Adam Carlson

3 months

Narrator: “But he, in fact, did not come up with it. He was just an angry manchild with an undeserved god complex who took credit for others’ content without citation on a regular basis. He desperately sought the validation of strangers because he was deeply broken on the inside”

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Adam Carlson

19 days

1) Not even remotely shocking, but still pretty incredible to see this admission from an NYT reporter 2) Thrilled that @DougJBalloon is getting the recognition he deserves

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@EricSchultz

Eric Schultz

19 days

wow - NYT reporter says their nonstop coverage of Biden’s age is retribution for not giving their boss an interview: “It’s A.G. He’s the one who is pissed [that] Biden hasn’t done any interviews and quietly encourages all the tough reporting on his age.”

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Adam Carlson

4 months

It’s possible to believe three things at once: 1) Biden selling weapons to Israel is gravely immoral & will forever be a scar on his legacy 2) There is more to this election than one issue 3) Protest votes accomplish nothing other than making the voter feel morally superior

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Adam Carlson

2 months

If he reacted like this from losing the DC GOP primary (completely inconsequential, only ~2K votes), imagine how unhinged he’ll be w/ his literal freedom on the line while we’re waiting for days for mail-in votes to be counted in Milwaukee, Detroit, Maricopa County & Clark County

@DrewSav

Drew Savicki

2 months

tfw you're definitely not mad

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Adam Carlson

3 months

Hi

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@NMalliotakis

Nicole Malliotakis

3 months

New York Democrats are rejecting the congressional maps drawn by the independent redistricting commission after rejecting the maps drawn by an independent special master. They plan to gerrymander the maps even after New Yorkers said NO in two referendums. Corrupt.

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Adam Carlson

3 months

To all the "just replace Biden with Whitmer or Newsom" people: Passing over the first Black female VP in US history as the Dem nominee — and spitting in the face of Black women — will destroy the Dem coalition & guarantee that Trump wins the presidency It's Biden or it's Harris

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Adam Carlson

3 months

The cope has begun

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Adam Carlson

2 months

*NYT/Siena Swing State Polls (Oct 22 - Nov 2)* • Trump leads among voters age 18-29 in AZ, GA, tied in MI • Cohn does a whole write-up about it *NYT/Siena National Poll (Feb 25-28)* • Biden leads Trump 54% to 41% among voters age 18-29 • Completely ignored in NYT’s analysis

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Adam Carlson

7 months

Mike Johnson & Jim Jordan have nearly identical voting records Johnson led the amicus brief supporting a lawsuit seeking to overturn the 2020 election results ~20 House Rs voted to block Jordan “on principle” If they vote for Johnson today it proves that was 100% performative

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@mkraju

Manu Raju

7 months

Rep Mike Lawler told me: “Obviously I did not support the removal of Kevin McCarthy. I think it was arguably the stupidest move ever made in politics. But we have to move forward. And so we’re going to rally around Mike Johnson and elect him speaker tomorrow and get back to work”

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Adam Carlson

1 month

Made this prediction tipsy at 11:10pm on New Year’s Eve, honestly still feel pretty good about it

@admcrlsn

Adam Carlson

4 months

And last but not least:

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Adam Carlson

5 months

"It's frightening to watch democracy crumble"

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Adam Carlson

4 months

New York Times: “Democrats Flip Florida House District Despite Turnout Disadvantage & Being Outspent 5:1 Here’s Why That’s Bad for Joe Biden”

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