A record-shattering first day of early voting in the Georgia runoff: 168k vote in-person yesterday, up from 136k on day one of in-person early voting for the general election
Biden has taken the lead in Michigan, according to the AP
Along with AZ, NV and WI, he now leads in states worth 270 electoral votes--the number needed to win
The path for Republicans to win the Senate is getting... awfully thin, as Democrats post strong showings in mail ballots tonight in Arizona and Nevada.
With Catherine Cortez Masto consistently winning the mail ballots in Nevada by a two-to-one margin, Democrats might just be one large Washoe County mail ballot drop away from holding the Senate
So a majority of House Republicans and AGs asked the Supreme Court to nullify the result of the presidential election--and bring about a constitutional crisis with untold risks to the country--in a case that the Court dismissed in a couple of paragraphs
It'll be a while until we get voter file data on this election, but I think there's a chance this was the largest partisan turnout advantage in a high turnout election that Democrats have enjoyed as long as I've followed election data
In the Times/Siena national poll just a couple of weeks ago, voters overwhelmingly supported a new $2 trillion dollar stimulus package by a 72-23 percent margin. It's just astonishing that a president trailing by 9 points is going to pass on this opportunity
The evidence for a 'rigged' election is so preposterous as of late that it's difficult to argue that any series of reforms would have avoided this mess
Based on my replies, I don't think people have fully internalized how Democratic these mail and absentee ballots will be in MI/PA/WI. It's going to be close, but these ballots will be overwhelmingly Democratic
An important factor in Georgia: a lot of the remaining vote in the Atlanta area is actually early and absentee, which is especially good for Biden. A reversal of what we've been doing most everywhere else
Ossoff and Warnock are both on track for victory with a greater than 95% chance to win, according to our estimates.
This is not a projection, but the remaining vote--including another 18k DeKalb early votes and nearly 100k absentee votes--overwhelmingly favors the Democrats
DeKalb County (and all Georgia counties) posted the exact number of in-person early votes long before election day. They even posted their names, addresses, etc.
Joe Biden will still be the president, despite attempts to subvert the will of the electorate. But it's not so hard to imagine a slightly different world--a closer race, a few more Wayne-ish dissenters--where similar efforts could threaten continuity of constitutional government
A huge loss for the Republicans: the Pennsylvania Supreme Court has ordered a new congressional map in one of the country's most gerrymandered states.
It's a state case, so SCOTUS appeal is unlikely.
It's likely to cost the GOP a seat, and undermine their position in others
Ossoff now ahead by .4 points as the last bit of DeKalb in-person early vote arrives.
The absentee ballots--tens of thousands remain, perhaps ~55k by our estimates--will likely put Ossoff over the .5 threshold recount tomorrow
If the Dems end up losing the House, I think it can be said that they lost it in New York: they blew redistricting, and then they badly underperformed a still-very-winnable set of districts, even while faring well elsewhere
Biden's lead is over 4,000 in Georgia, after new Gwinnett County ballots. I don't think we're getting a call here for weeks, but given that we have such a good accounting of what's outstanding, it's hard to see Trump winning this without a tabulation error
So far, Democrats are running about a point ahead of our expectations outside of Florida, with the GOP lead in the House starting to come down a bit
Not many signs of a red wave at this point.
It's really quite simple. Biden's winning absentee ballots 78-21. The PA SOS says there are 1.4 million ballots left to count. If that's true, then Biden will net-800k votes, more than enough to over take the president
Sometimes, American politics is complicated. Right now, it's extremely simple: the public has reached a harshly negative judgment of the president's handling of the most important issue facing the country, and the issue is so paramount that there's little room to wiggle out of it
An ominous sign for Biden in Pennsylvania: Trump running ahead of his 2016 performance in Trumbull County (Warren, near Youngstown and on the west PA border) with nearly all of the vote counted
Democratic chances of winning the House have... slowly started to tick up. Now up 29%, up from about 21% at the start. They're favored to win 208 seats up from 203 in our poll-based starting estimates
Biden has nearly the worst approval ratings of any president on record at this stage of his presidency.
Just something to keep in mind if you're struggling to understand what happened tonight
Since I took a nap, we've gotten a bit more data in Pennsylvania--narrowing Trump's margin to 8 points there.
To my mind, everything there is still consistent with Biden eventually taking the lead
Trump's lead in Georgia now under 10,000 votes, mainly after mail-in ballots from Fulton.
Clayton and Chatham absentees alone ought to cover the rest of the difference
One factor shaping our estimate in DeKalb: the remaining early votes in DeKalb are in majority black precincts, and we expect Ossoff to clear 90% of the vote in these final 18k in-person early votes there
With Trump's lead under 80k votes, we're now at the point where the Philadelphia absentees alone will close basically all of the rest of the gap and potentially all of it, depending on exactly how many are left to be counted
Meanwhile, Trump's lead in Georgia is down to just 1.4 points with a lot of Democratic vote still out. Will be razor thin here--and it seems on track to end up in recount territory, either way
Biden wins the new votes in Nevada by 14 points, and there's still more late mail and provisionals left. I don't know if anyone will call it on this basis, as it's still fairly close and there's no *hard* data on what's out. But you can still pencil this into the Biden column
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and Florida, according to new Times/Siena polls taken after the first debate.
Biden leads in Pennsylvania, 49 to 42 percent among likely voters. He leads in Florida, 47 to 42.
Well it's about time: Joe Biden is the president-elect.
He's carried the state of Pennsylvania, and I can report that it is very loud here in dark blue Manhattan
Another big day of early voting in Georgia: 167k voted yesterday, about the same as Monday and up from 129k on the second day of early voting in October
Trump's lead is down to 5 points in Pennsylvania. I have no idea how many more votes they'll count there before nightfall, but Trump's margin is already more than cut in half so far today.
There's less confidence in the electoral system because people tried to erode confidence in it, not because of the way the election was administered
No 'blue-ribbon' plan could have gotten us out of the mess we found ourselves in
We need to work together to restore confidence in the integrity of our electoral system.
That's why I will introduce a bill to establish a bipartisan, blue ribbon panel to provide transparency into past election issues & recommend best practices for the states moving forward.
Somehow not the most important news of the moment, but Ossoff has won the US Senate election in Georgia, according to the AP, giving Democrats control of the Senate
The thing that's most dispiriting about the 'vote dump' charts (which purport to show irregularities, but just show large Dem. cities reporting), is that it's in such complete bad faith that there's no way the electoral process could be reformed to guard against it going forward
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Arizona, 49 to 41 percent, in a new Times/Siena survey.
Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally, 50 to 39 percent, in the US Senate race
No projections in AZGOV, but make no mistake: Lake didn't get the tallies she wanted and probably needed out of Maricopa.
It will presumably close further, but Lake doesn't have many batches left. Each time she falls short, her target in the outstanding vote gets higher.
Tonight's vote dump in Maricopa was Trump+18, which confirms that the state's going to get a lot tighter. It's not very easy to say whether that's enough for Trump or not, but I'd think it's more than enough to preclude an Arizona call tonight
Neither Michigan nor Pennsylvania seem poised to be especially close, say under a point, once all of the votes are counted. Still a lot of uncertainty in Pennsylvania, but this doesn't look like a looming recount situation
JUST IN: Instead of delaying releasing results until tomorrow, Nevada officials will release more results later today due to the high interest in how Nevada voted.
#8NN
#Election2020
#NVElection
#YLHE
One thing I'll never understand is why some people assume there are no shifts in public opinion. Here's one: support for Black Lives Matter over the last few weeks and years
Catherine Cortez Masto pulls into the lead in Nevada, as the latest round of Clark County mail ballots goes for Ms. Cortez Masto by 61 to 36 percent margin -- giving her a margin of nearly 5,000 votes statewide.
Could see some calls.
I'm a little surprised no one has called MI, given that the Wayne votes will be Democratic, it's quite obvious that the Kent, MI votes will be Democratic (even though Trump leads the tabulated count so far there), and there's extraneous vote in D areas (Kalamazoo/Genesee) too
Republicans have taken the lead in the tabulated vote, but the remaining ballots are overwhelmingly in the Atlanta area and there is so far no indiction that the Republicans are poised to outrun expectations in what remains. They haven't really done so at any point tonight
It's hard to game out exactly where we're heading in Arizona. It both depends on how many ballots are left and what kind of ballots, and neither is exactly clear. The most important takeaway here: Pennsylvania wrapping up its count is the path to a quick call
Trump leads the final Selzer poll of Iowa by 7 points, 48 to 41.
That's the same margin as their final poll four years ago, which wound up foreshadowing Trump's Midwestern sweep
Warnock is on track for victory with a greater than 95 percent chance to win, according to our estimates.
This is not a projection, but Republicans have largely exhausted their vote and Loeffler lead will not survive the remaining Democratic vote under reasonable assumptions
You've got folks convinced that there were more votes than people in Detroit. All you have to do is do is google search 'detroit population' and 'detroit election results 2020' to learn that it's wrong
Joe Biden opens up a considerable 9 point lead across the battleground states likeliest to decide the presidency
MI: Biden+11
WI: Biden+11
PA: Biden+10
NC: Biden+9
AZ: Biden+7
FL: Biden+6
A telling historical footnote will be that they were joined by two non-existent states in their effort to overturn the results of four actual states, which is very much in line with the quality of the allegations that have been raised over the last month
Biden+7 in Pennsylvania from Muhlenberg College, 51 to 44 percent.
This is a solid pollster and they have not shown rosy results for Biden in the past here. Their last two surveys were Biden+4 in August and a tied race in February.
Raphael Warnock is the winner in the Georgia special senate election, according to the AP, keeping Democrats on track to take control of the U.S. Senate
We have some good news for Democrats in North Carolina, where a reporting error by Randolph County is padding Trump by about 30k in our estimate there.
They reported both in person (abs one-stop) and absentee mail together, but the needle's still expecting 45k early votes
The post-election mail vote in the west generally looks more like 2018 than 2020.
You're seeing it most obviously in Arizona, where GOP hopes of strong batches simply aren't materializing, but it's true elsewhere.
It creates real downside risk for the GOP in California.
For Trump to win Pennsylvania, the Secretary of State would have to be very, very wrong about how many mail ballots aren't included in the current results tally
Alright, PA Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar says it's likely we could know by TODAY the winner in the state of PA. The outstanding 550K +/- votes are being counted today.
If we had an election where every state had photo ID, in-person voting, and reported all of its results at once we would be in... exactly the same place
One small casualty of this election: the RealClearPolitics average. It's never been perfect, but I've cited it in the past as a simple no-questions-asked average. Unfortunately, that's not possible anymore.
Maricopa only adds about 7k ballots tonight, but they're Biden+11--assuming I did this right.
Obviously that's the wrong direction for the president, though many ballots still remain.