As always, if you want the TL/DR version of
@SWFoundation
's global counterspace threat assessment edited by myself and
@brianweeden
, here you go. If you'd like to read the whole thing, check it out here:
@tressiemcphd
Robin Givhan did a pretty good job of it: "Her fashion stands out in the crowd because it’s so different from everything that surrounds it. It’s impossible not to take notice. Her attire is garrulous. But it doesn’t say much beyond: Look."
"The question for NASA becomes, then, how long it is willing to rely on a partner that is clearly having technical issues with its workforce, is always asking for more money, and making noises about wanting to exit the space station partnership"
Nauka's near miss disaster on the ISS is Russia's third major human spaceflight failure within the last three years. It raises serious questions about the future of the ISS partnership.
Russia said that the debris created from the Nov 2021 ASAT test no longer exists. 🤨. Good trick for over 1700 pieces of trackable debris to deorbit entirely within 14 months. Alternatively, the 18th Space Control Squadron has said it may take until 2033 for it all to deorbit
#Russia
ASAT test cont: Needed for defence purposes to prevent damage to the security of the country in outer space and on the ground by existing or future space devices of other countries.
A lot I could say but will focus on this: "India should execute low orbital altitude sea and air-launched A-SATs, which would significantly limit debris fallout." No such thing as a safe ASAT test - the force of impact blows debris in all directions
@sarahhollowell
I still tear up when I think of a friend who took her vacuum ON THE BUS to vacuum our house because ours was broken and we were too overwhelmed to do anything about it
Last January, I noticed something peculiar in my 2yo’s bedroom that - after a year of obsessive reporting - led me to a profound cosmic revelation about what’s even possible in our universe. A 🧵.
Really excited about this year's report.
@brianweeden
and I made a couple of changes. We're emphasizing the long-lived nature of debris from ASAT tests, including a table that lists all the tests that created debris, how much debris was created, and how much is still on orbit 1/
1/ Today SWF is releasing the 2022 version of our Global Counterspace Capabilities report, which tracks R&D and testing of anti-satellite and other counterspace weapons around the world
Very excited about a new
@SWFoundation
pub: an infographic that illustrates the debris created from ASAT tests. It shows how the debris spreads across altitudes, demonstrating that there is no such thing as a responsible ASAT test. Graph available here:
@howatdk
Seeing Independence Day at a midnight viewing in Westwood on opening night and having the whole audience cheer when the dog cleared the fireball
@clhubes
My kid, when she was 3yo, had a phase where she insisted that the dog be in the same room as her but also the dog couldn't sit down? 3 is definitely something
@nktpnd
"It will also fulfill the requirement in the fiscal 2019 National Defense Authorization Act that an Iron Dome battery be deployed to an operational theater by the end of 2021." DING DING DING DING
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov on US announcement to commit not to conduct destructive ASAT tests in space: "This is a step in the right direction"
ESA's Aschbacher: “You have one person owning half of the active satellites in the world. That’s quite amazing. De facto, he is making the rules. The rest of the world including Europe... is just not responding quick enough.”
Hat tip
@LaeCesari
for alerting the fact that France has now made the commitment not to conduct destructive ASAT missile tests! This makes 10 countries to have made this commitment 🥳
I have a news alert set for "space weapon" and I cannot count how many times I've gotten news stories about people shooting each other over disputes about parking spaces
@missy_ryan
He sounds like he's *thisclose* to doing whatever is the DoD equivalent of opening the airplane's emergency door and riding the escape slide
"We call upon the United States, Russia, China, and India to declare unilateral moratoriums on further testing of their antisatellite weapons...and to work with other countries towards solidifying an international ban on destructive ASAT testing."
"SpaceX disabled its automated AI-powered collision avoidance system to allow OneWeb to steer its satellite out of the way... "“What is the point of having it if you have to turn it off when there’s going to be a potential collision?” Victoria Samson of SWF
New: OneWeb and Starlink satellites dodged a dangerously close approach with one another in orbit last weekend in the first known collision avoidance event for the two rivals.
"China has launched a new satellite that analysts say can be used as a weapon capable of grabbing and crushing American satellites." This is quite the assertion and the only thing it apparently is based on is that it has a robotic arm. 1/
Proceed with caution but be cognizant of how much or little effect we can have. The 1990s export control restrictions we enacted did little to slow China's satellite development but instead created a whole class of ITAR-free items that hurt US industry. 1/
"it is possible that satellite-killing lasers could be deployed on the Air Force‘s secretive X-37 space plane"
The X-37B's cargo hold is about the size of the back of a pick-up truck. For more about what we ACTUALLY know about it:
“Let’s face it: If you’re a Space Force person, you’re going to be in a room monitoring satellites,” says Victoria Samson, a military-space expert... “There’s nothing wrong with that, but it’s definitely not as sexy as Starship Troopers going into space.”"
@SWFoundation
1/
@SWFoundation
's 2023 Global Counterspace Threat assessment, co-edited by
@brianweeden
and yours truly, is out today! For the TL/DR version, see this:
16 ASAT tests held in space to date have created over 6300 trackable pieces of debris, of which nearly 4400 are still in orbit. SWF hopes "other States will join the United States and declare policies not to conduct debris-causing ASAT tests in space"
JOB JOB JOB. Must be US citizen/able to work in the US; do not have to live in the DMV area. You'd be working closely with
@brianweeden
and me - not sure if that's a selling point or not. Share amongst your networks!
Join our team! SWF is seeking a contractor to support the development of our annual Global Counterspace Capabilities Report and associated fact sheets on counterspace activities.
Me on data from
@planet4589
's fab annual report: Russia has failed “to keep up with evolving launch capabilities by the other space powers." Plus, “We have over half the launch attempts being done by commercial actors; again, a big shift in space players.”
This is quite a take on what discussing responsible behavior can lead to. Also really thought-provoking quotes from a Chinese scholar about what it might take to get China to the negotiating table
1/3
"China will, “actively participate in formulating international rules regarding outer space, and will work together with other countries to address the challenges in ensuring long-term sustainability of outer space activities,” the paper states."
Calling all
#UNGA
#FirstCommittee
enthusiasts! 🧐This morning the UNGA took action (aka voted) on most of the resolutions that were adopted by the Commitee in November. Results can be found here, with voting records to come when available:
Love getting to talk space policy issues at the UT/Austin STM conference with these fabulous ladies
@theresejones0
@maruska_strah
Diane Howard, Ruth Stilwell, and of course
@JannaJLewis
This was a piece of debris leftover from China's 2007 ASAT test. That test was done at 865 km - well above the ISS. So it shows that ASAT tests can be dangerous even if they're not in your particular orbital shell
"[N]o single actor will be able to unilaterally impose universal rules. States can, however, negotiate agreements to manage commons areas to better pursue national objectives."
Just saying that
@SWFoundation
's global counterspace assessment on page 2-27 talks about reports of Russia working on space-based sat jammers that could be nuclear-powered
.
@NewsHour
reporting that the Russian mystery weapon may be a nuclear-POWERED (not a nuclear-armed) anti-satellite system.
If so, it could be highly effective, though also grossly irresponsible. (1/n)
This makes a LOT more sense then a nuclear-tipped ASAT weapon, which the Russians have never tested (but the US did back in the early days of the Cold War). Also a jammer is a lot more selective in its targeting. Finally, a jammer is not a WMD
1\ So I will go out on a limb and offer my own speculation that this dastardly Russian space thing is perhaps some sort of nuclear-powered electronic warfare satellite
Per Audrey Schaffer, space pol dir for the NSC: “It’s critically important that we develop basic norms for satellite to satellite interaction to avoid the risk of miscalculation and misperception”
This is interesting, as we'd only identified the SY-7
as possibly having a robotic arm, and it was at LEO. SJ-17 that is brought up as having a robotic arm here is in GEO 1/
WH press sec Karine Jean-Pierre said that the Russian space capability was "not active and not deployed", but he then went on later to say that it definitely was space-based and would be a violation of the OST. Um so back to a nuclear weapon in orbit?
Per
@TSKelso
, there are 2033 rocket bodies in Earth orbit, all of which are uncontrolled. Of those, the US is responsible for 546; China, 169; and Russia, 1035.
"it’s well past time the global space community developed a sustainable framework for managing space traffic"
The world must cooperate to avoid a catastrophic space collision
Very much looking forward to my panel next week
#SWFSummit20
with the participation of
@JessLuella_West
, Pete Hays, David Koplow, and Guilherme Patriota. Also, I'm really proud of the accessibility: our conference's webinars will be live close captioned!
Q: Can we shoot down the rocket body?
A: The rocket body remains the property of China even as it is reentering so shooting it down would not be appropriate.
Excited to have a piece in this special issue of the Bulletin focused on space. I argue, "This shift toward the dominance of space by commercial entities is leaving Russia behind, a fact that has destabilizing security implications as well"
Countries who supported the US ASAT test announcement at the
#OEWG
on
#space
threats: Czech Republic, Norway, NZ, Poland, Switzerland, Spain, Chile, Mexico, and Brazil (the latter who also called for a moratorium on ALL destructive ASAT tests)
Excellent piece by
@raji143
on the Artemis Accords: "useful to have spacefaring powers agree upon and comply with a common set of principles, guidelines, and best practices, which could be greatly beneficial for safe and sustainable use of space"
"Sino-American space cooperation is similarly desirable. It could improve ties as it did for the U.S. and Russia, de-escalate an emerging Sino-Russian axis in space, and serve as a bargaining chip to help sustain other areas of cooperation."
🚨🚨🚨FREE hard copies of
@swfoundation
's "Handbook for New Actors in Space" available to educational institutions for educational use. Minimum request is 36 copies on a first-come, first-serve basis, with shipping on us. To request copies, go here:
Statement by Vorontsov (Russian delegation) to UN 1st comm id's as "an extremely dangerous trend" "the use by the United States and its allies of civilian, including commercial, infrastructure elements in outer space for military purposes"
This should be a fascinating event -
@crswope
@CSISAerospace
is going to be interviewing
@StateDept
's Mallory Stewart about Russia's alleged nuke ASAT - check it out!
SpaceX says the Starlink constellation has done nearly 7,000 automated maneuvers in the last 6 months to avoid potential collisions, 1,700 of which were due to Russian ASAT debris
@joshgondelman
One time, I was seated in the exit row for an early morning flight, and I was dozing while waiting for boarding to finish. The flight attendants convened a huddle, then one of them moved me to a different row, I guess because I was deemed too sleepy to be effective?