Menthor Q @MenthorQpro Twitter profile

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

7 days

🚨NEW DEVELOPMENT: Ninja Trader integration coming soon! 👀🥷

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Putting thing into perspective is always a good thing 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Some light sat night reading. This is a good table that helps think/remind what each option greek represents. If you use options you need to nail these down. Save this table somewhere

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Menthor Q

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1 year

This chart is crazy, made in 1875 by Samuel Benner showing periods of panic, good time to sell assets and good times to buy. Mind blowing that he predicted so many events. Really telling. Don’t have the source someone sent it to me

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Fertilizer prices have now passed 2008 peak. I’m not going to lie to you: it’s not good 🤔 H/T @dailyshot

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

This is Nasdaq China after Xi picked up the phone and cancelled Jack Ma ☎️

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Exxon is forecasted to have net income of $43B ("more than God") but Google of $76B, Microsoft of $80B, and Apple of $104B. Exxon profit margin 11%, those guys 30%. Let’s be clear this was driven by policy makers and rates at 0%

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

People stopped talking about this, but this is the CDS of Credit Suisse 🤯

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Where Russian crude has been going. Check out India 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

High inflation typically leads to a slow down in economic activity because it starts killing demand. Commodity at these levels is already doing Jerome Powell’s job 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

1/ Commodity trading houses have had to manage liquidity at current price by re-entering the market and upsizing their facilities. They are obviously under pressure and the bond market is repricing. Here you have the CDS of Louis Dreyfus, a trading house active in the agri space.

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

3 years

Inflation down in Miami is crazy. Uber up at least 40%. Rents doubled, restaurants cost like NYC 🤌

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

In red the lithium mined to dated. In yellow the lithium needed for clean energy transition. That is a lot 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

The real earnings yield for the SPX hasn’t been this deep into negative territory since 1947. Happened only 4 times before all of which resulted in bear markets. I mean guys, this is what you are buying right now 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

BofA allocation for 2023 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

The 10Y is now testing a 4 decade down trend. Could be a sign of a regime change 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

BLOOMBERG: Gazprom Neft now accepts only yuan for fueling Russian airplanes at China’s airports. By end of 2022 it plans to switch to ruble settlements for fueling Chinese planes at Russian airports 🤔

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

El Salvador CDS 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

This is the trucking activity in China right now

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

3 years

Margin debt to the moon🚀

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Housing rolling over 🚨

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

3 years

Chinese CDS keeps running. The perfect storm right now 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

3 years

Margin Debt soared 50% in the past 8 months. In the past 30+ years, such investor euphoria happened exactly twice: March 2000 June 2007 Now h/t @bullmarketsco

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

This is what the Russian CDS looks like. This is how much is costs to protect your Russian risk 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

This was the energy projection mix of the German government in 1974 💁 H/T Timothy Stout

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Housing affordability a bloody disaster

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

New York Harbor spot diesel. Looks like a bloody CDS 💁

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

German inflation is now higher than the 1970s. ECB falling asleep at the wheel 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Another one. They are all waking up 🤌🤡

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

History of SPX and drawdowns 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Mortgage rates close to 5%. Median mortgage payment 20% higher than a year ago. This is how you start cooling demand 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Cool infographic showing what you can make with one bbl of crude oil- input costs go up for a lot of stuff we use

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

3 years

Investors have not been this bearish on bonds ever 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

10Y yield and events. Place your bets 💵 H/T @JackPScott

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

If this go through they’ll need a lot of oil, copper and steel

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

This is Germany base load forward year, translated cost of electricity. This is directly linked to cost of gas, and of coal. LNG is not going down, and coal is at historical high prices following decades of under capex 🫤

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

3 years

@StephenPunwasi Zuck has a track record of taking other people’s ideas lol

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

BLOOMBERG: The Biden administration is effectively asking refiners to prioritize American consumers over maximizing profits by supplying fuel-starved Europe, which is facing an unprecedented energy crunch after the invasion of Ukraine - export ban coming up

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

3 years

Do people still look at this? 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

German electricity cost: >$1000 per barrel of oil 🤌

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

4 years

Questa e' una panoramica della situazione finanziaria dei #Millenials . Meno crescita economia, piu' debito, asset inflation, poca conoscenza finanziaria. Visutto tra due crisi finanziarie. L'INPS scordatevela Scaricate i nostri ebook gratis #pensione

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

This is bad for financial sector, but also for the economy. Economy goes down with banks

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Solar panel sourcing: China. Source for production: Coal 👍🤌

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

So you are telling me we just slashed $11T of negative yielding debt without a real blow up? 🤔

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Spanish yield is going parabolic with the Italian. ECB says this is not a problem. To be seen. Spain 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Chinese imports vs commodity 🤙

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

Look how fast gas storage was depleted in the UK with cold weather and renewables failing. Now as Russian flows disappear the problem will become real across EU, making the cap even more inadequate

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

1/ Links to our Research Threads -IMPACT OF TIME ON DELTA -DIVING INTO CTAs -STICKY STRIKES & SKEW -SPX & OPEX -HOW TO USE OUR Q-MODELS with IV RANK

Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

1/ HOW TO USE OUR Q-MODELS with IV RANK: IV rank is great to find opportunities in the options market. For example, one can use it to sell options. In general, if IV rank is high, a good strategy could be to sell options. Let’s see how our models can help 🧵 @AlessioUrban

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Pretty sad what is happening to Sri Lanka. Just shows what happens when you run out of fuel. We take this for granted 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Chip shortages has been slowly improving, yet what people fail to appreciate is that to produce chips you need rare gases. Ukraine supplies 50% of neon gas and 30% of Xenon. All this has been halted due to war, and it will subsequently affect Chip production

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

If copper is the barometer of economic growth then there is nothing else to add 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Credit default swaps to insure investment grade debt is surging. Higher rates higher defaults in a highly levered market 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

People stopped hedging? The absolute cost of a 2 month 5% put in SPX is trading at one of the lowest level in ~2 years 🤌

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

CDS of all banks are moving up, that’s because there is speculation that a systemic bank may blow up. That freezes interbank lending. We’ve seen this before 🤌

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Revised global oil inventory. It’s hard to be an oil bear 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Now Biden wants a full ban on Russian aluminum. That should help inflation. Enjoy your coke guys, because that is going up too 🤌

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

3 years

Household ownership of US equities about to hit $30T. Look where it was in 1999. It surely was not the real economy driving that vertical surge 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

1/ Read this thread on EV vis Diesel 🧵 "Volkswagen (VW) calculates that a diesel car emits less CO2 than an EV for the first 70,000 miles it is driven. How can this be? Fabricating one EV battery entails mining about 250 tons of rock to secure the minerals needed. H/T Lars Tvede

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

This is the share of Chinese commodities production. As you can see it is growing very fast. This is a big deal 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

3 years

Monthly expirations (Opex) are becoming more and more linked to dips (and buy the dips). As large gamma expires we see an increase in volatility and drop in price. This Friday looks set to be another important expiry 👇 @jam_croissant

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 months

What is Gold trying to tell us? 👀

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

This is the real problem guys, USD and Crude are just moving up together and we have lost the non-correlation. As crude is paid in USD, weaker currencies/countries are just getting hammered

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

3 years

Asset Managers are short USD. Record levels at this point

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

The way the option greeks are linked is not always clear. But it is essential because it affects the value of your options. This table helps me when I set up trades and risk manage

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Here we go: Force Majeure 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

This is to put things into perspective. For the SPX, put volumes on Monday were the highest since March 2020. In Europe, demand for bearish contracts on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index topped 1 million contracts for the first time since December 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

3 years

Purchasing power of $100 over time: 1950 - $100 1960 - $80.41 1970 - $61.34 1980 - $28.88 1990 - $18.21 2000 -$13.82 2010 - $10.91 2021 - $8.7 In 70 years, $100 dollars lost 91.3% of its real value H/T @MarilynnMinkk

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Japan is burning through FX reserves at the speed of light. This is not sustainable. Next round they will start selling Treasuries and guess what that will do? Spike Treasury yields higher and make the USD stronger which weakens the Yen. And we go round and round

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Conversation this morning with an “expert” in the City of London. So this is it “we need to stop buying their commodity, but tame inflation immediately”. These are the experts, now imagine the rest of the world

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

Production of gas per country. I think this speaks for itself

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

BLOOMBERG: Turkey discovers natural gas worth over $500bn in the Black Sea

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

8 months

The BOT is now live. Received some questions on how to use the Query BOT. You can see how to use it from this video. We also created a Resource page. But by following the video you will be able to see how to enter a query and run our models #QBOT

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Italian 10Y bond yield. This is going to be a problem 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Note how bear markets move. Don’t confuse the plus signs. Zoom out H/T @SoberLook

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

US CDS going back to ‘08 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

BLOOMBERG: Ecuador’s oil production is likely to halt completely within 48 hours if road blocks and vandalizing of oil wells continue, the Energy Ministry said in an emailed statement 🤌

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

BLOOMBERG: The French government is threatening to take control of some of the country’s biggest refineries that have been halted by strikes. Ok, and how will they run them? It’s not like a playstation. Pretty complex machines. Try to visit a refinery control room 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

👀

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

440k calls bought on VIX, outpacing puts 6-1 🤔

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

This is the most important chart around. All of the rest is just Wall Street bs 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Bloomberg: *VALERO SAYS US FUEL DEMAND HAS SURPASSED 2019 LEVELS 🤯

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

3 years

Total US call volumes. When I saw this I thought it was Tesla for a moment @corptrader

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

10 months

Supply story in oil getting worse. Now we have a huge short covering. Wall Street narrative is shifting to growth mode. Price broke 200MA activating systematic strategies. At this point oil is looking to run - and we are still waiting on Saudi's cuts. US oil rig count 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

3 years

This is the SPX earning yield after inflation: -2.3%. Investment of a life time 🤌

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

4 months

GS: "The cost of S&P 3-month 95% put costs 82bps, the lowest level that we have seen" 👀🤯

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

@INArteCarloDoss Those holes in bank books keep getting wider by the day. The Russian situation can easily bring down some western banks. People have zero idea about this. Think it is a one way road

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Before coffee this is a bit much 🙄🤌

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

3 months

Biggest outflow from tech EVER 👀

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

This is the German CDS, the inflation print did not help. Again matter of time until EU goes through what UK is currently going through

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Germany believes that the 11 of July is the day Putin pulls the plug on gas delivery to Germany for good. That is about to create caos in Germany as well as the rest of EU who is running out of time, Russia’s energy strategy is starting to bite really hard

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

1/ Last couple of weeks, we have seen a spike in put/call ratio. Historically this can be a sign of a bearish market. But this time there is a specific reason for the spike. I will attach CBOE article on this, but will also re-cap what happened 🧵

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

This chart is pretty clear. Every time the Fed hikes it ends in a crisis 👇 H/T @zerohedge @DiMartinoBooth @biancoresearch

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

China using coal for 61% of electricity generation. The EU wants to get rid of coal to reduce CO2. Blindfolded policy making

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

Margin debt delta collapsing. This is what happened in the past 👇 H/T @themarketear

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

Downtrend in yields has been decisively broken. Not a pretty picture for bond investors

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

The S&P 500 Index now trades at 16.5 times estimated 12-month earnings, the lowest since April 2020 and below the average level of 17.04 times seen over the past decade. Keep steady 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

2 years

3/ After ‘08 trading houses took the role that the bank used to have. JPM, J Aron (GS), MS used to trade heavy volumes of physical until regulators clipped their wings. Their role is pretty important throughout the supply chain, a blow up in this market would be a problem

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

This image speaks for itself 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

1/ OPTION EDUCATION: What does it mean when our model is in positive or negative gamma? In this thread we will help you understand how our model can help your option spread trading🧵 @AlessioUrban

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

3 years

I don't think anyone cares anymore, but Stocks don’t look attractive on an inflation-adjusted basis. Real earning yield 👇

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Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

1 year

1/ Let's talk about GAMMA tonight 🧵 What is gamma? Gamma is the first derivative of delta with respect to underlying price. Gamma measures the rate of the change in delta as the underlying spot moves

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