Every year I write abt
#ASEAN
summits & meetings. But this summit is unlike others.
@ASEAN
faces crisis within and there's urgency to respond.
The summit's attendance & non-attendance display more stark division than ever.
@Asean2021_BN
#Myanmar
#Tatmadaw
Personal update:
After 4,5 years I’m bidding farewell to
@ASPI_org
. What a time it's been to work in international relations, national security &
#policy
space! I started when 🇦🇺 hosted a special summit with
#ASEAN
and since then there's been the
#Quad
revival, Trump,
#Huawei
ban
Read
@le2huong
on why Southeast Asia is aligning with as many states as it can—and how this approach can allow developing countries to both avoid great-power conflict and become players themselves.
Oh dear... The opening remarks at European Diplomatic Academy:
"Europe is a garden. We have built a garden. Everything works.
The rest of the world is not exactly a garden. Most of the rest of the world is a jungle, and the jungle could invade the garden."
I'm beyond shock and grief.
We lost a great mind, a kind colleague and a wonderful role model. She will be greatly missed.
May she rest in peace, condolences to her family.
#Taiwanese
companies in
#China
moving to
#SoutheastAsia
, reflecting importance of President
@iingwen
's flagship New Southbound Policy.
Over a quarter of the 500 surveyed companies with business in 🇨🇳 had already shifted some of their production or sourcing out-
@CSIS
report finds
“
#Vietnam
fought wars with both
#US
and
#China
, and now has comprehensive strategic partnerships [the highest level] with both of them — that is a masterclass of
#diplomacy
,” said Dr Huong Le Thu, deputy director for Asia at
@CrisisGroup
" - quoted in
@FT
Sebuah pesan untuk masyarakat Indonesia dari Menteri Luar Negeri yang baru Australia Penny Wong
@SenatorWong
, dalam kunjungan resmi pertamanya ke Jakarta dengan Perdana Menteri yang baru Anthony Albanese.
There’s been debate on whether democracies or autocracies deal w/
#COVID19
more effectively. But
#Singapore
,
#Taiwan
&
#Vietnam
who have efficiently handled the pandemic, are dissimilar in size, political systems & levels of economic development. It's abt governance & leadership.
'Trajectories of infection and current numbers vary across the three countries, but they all reacted fast and so managed to flatten the curve and minimise the economic and social costs' writes
@le2huong
"If
#foreignpolicy
begins at home, then much of the shaping of
#Asia
’s
#geopolitics
will take place at the ballot boxes. It is the mundane factors like the costs of living, inflation, jobs... that'll be at the forefront".
My first column for
@koreatimes
Only 3 out of 10
#ASEAN
countries made it to
#Biden
's Summit for Democracy invitee list: #🇮🇩 #🇲🇾#🇵🇭.
Given the state of political trends in the region, not surprising. But still...
No wonder
#IndoPacific
democratic agenda is not so popular in the region.
The old playbook in action again.
#China
"randomly" blocks agricultural produce from
#Vietnam
. At the time of
@POTUS
' visit & upgrading 🇺🇸🇻🇳 ties.
And
#durian
&
#dragonfruit
- produce that the demand grew exponentially recently. How predictable.
Hundreds of containers of bananas, dragonfruits & durians, on their way to China, have suddenly been stopped since 9 Sept. Vietnam’s Plant Protection Authority said it was for quality check but the timing raised some eyebrows. CN is VN’s biggest market for agriculture products.
I am optimistic about 🇺🇸 🇻🇳 upgrade to
#strategic
#partnership
too.
More importantly, the substance of the relationship, from reconciliation, trade, business, investment, people2people, diplomatic & defence etc, have progressed significantly.
@SecBlinken
Never agreed w/ the comparison btw
#Vietnam
&
#Afganistan
: very different countries (incl
#US
then & US now), wars, context etc.
But the human vulnerability at this time is comparable. And that's what 🇺🇸 can & should learn from history: Must protect the civilians,
#WarRefugees
“U.S.-Vietnamese relations have come a long way since the countries first normalized ties in 1995. From fighting one of the bloodiest conflicts since World War II, the two countries have now elevated their relations to the highest level possible.”
I have been exitedly anticipating Huong's first day on the job (today) and this public announcement.
@le2huong
is one of the most insightful and and incisive scholars in the field today and we
@PerthUSAsia
are delighted to have her on the team! Welcome!
Can the Biden administration use de-risking to achieve greater consensus with allies and partners on a China economic strategy?
@solis_msolis
@le2huong
@tanvi_madan
@bensonel
& Shujiro Urata answer.
Listen NOW:
With all the Qs whether 🇺🇸 & 🇻🇳 are going to upgrade from comprehensive partnership to strategic during
@POTUS
's upcoming visit, it's time to re-up my analysis of the evolving security relationship.
"The push and pull of the developing
#US
#Vietnam
#defence
partnership"
@NBRnews
Excited about PM
@AlboMP
upcoming visit to
#Vietnam
(and his
@IISS_org
#SLD2023
keynote!).
A short 🧵 from me about the 🇦🇺🇻🇳 relationship, its momentum, opportunities and future trajectory on the occasion of 50th anniversary 👇 1/
A lot of angry "they" & "their" pointed at #🇸🇬 in this piece.
#Cambodia
's
@KhmerTimes
editorial fights back the narrative about its divisive track record (previous
#ASEAN
chairmanship).
Not very positive signalling for
@ASEAN
unity at the outset 2022.
We are pleased to launch a fantastic new
@DefenceUwa
Black Swan Strategy Paper by
@le2huong
'TIGER Priorities - US & Australian Strategies in Southeast Asia. To download:
It is official now. 🇺🇸 🇻🇳 have become comprehensive
#strategic
partners.
More importantly, expanding avenues for
#cooperation
& furthee trust-building.
Very important statement in
#SouthChinaSea
.
#🇦🇺 rejects #🇨🇳's claims inconsistent w/
#UNCLOS
,
historic rights & maritime zones of submerged features.
🇦🇺 rejects 🇨🇳's claims in
#Spartly
&
#Paracel
& rejects 'Four Sha' & claims to island groups' interal water, territorial sea, EEZ
This is a really good letter from
@AustraliaUN
which follows US in rejecting China’s legal claims in South China Sea, including the Nine Dash Line; straight baselines.
"pronouncing New Administrative Districts in the
#SouthChinaSea
is different from the occasional maritime pressure campaign or military exercise. It has far more lasting consequences. It aims to formalize #🇨🇳’s control, with more permanent effects." (1)
Such an interesting couple days at 1.5 track 🌊 dialogue in Hanoi. Special thanks to the gracious hosts
@AusAmbVN
@dfat
@BlueSecProgram
and all involved for engaging discussion.
#Vietnam
&
#Singapore
have some things in common. Both are dealing with rare corruption scandals, led by a single party & seen as stable
#investment
destinations in
#SoutheastAsia
, receive an influx of investors leaving
#China
.
Both strategically astute.
The debate about the
#Quad
has never been detached from other regional actors, incl
#ASEAN
. What do expert communities in
#ASEAN
countries really think? My new report reveals views from each of the
#ASEAN
country:
@ASPI_org
Dr Le Thu's report gives actual views of people in ASEAN national security communities of ASEAN on the Quad. Much commentary turns out to be misplaced: a clear majority in ASEAN welcome the emerging Quad and want it to play a positive security role.
Fantastic to be able to catch up with #🇦🇺 Ambassador to #🇻🇳 Robyn Mudie in person!
Honored by your endorsement. Happy my work is helpful in navigating bilateral & regional relations!
Thank you for your tireless work to deepen 🇦🇺 -🇻🇳 ties!
@dfat
@AusAmbVN
Wonderful to catch up with
@le2huong
recently. A valued expert on
#Vietnam
and the broader strategic environment, whose perspectives helps us see and understand the big picture.
Defence Update, the
#Myanmar
crisis,
#AUKUS
, war in
#Ukraine
among others… oh and this thing called the
#Covid
#pandemic
! I’m proud to have made a lasting footprint and an impact in global policy debate.
The world is not slowing down and more exciting things from me to follow!👊
In the newest episode of The Asia Chessboard Mike and Jude are joined by
@Le2Huong
, Deputy Director of the Asia Program at the International Crisis Group, to discuss Vietnam's geostrategic landscape and developments in its approach in the Indo-Pacific.
I unpack the four prevailing narratives in
#SoutheastAsia
about 🇺🇸🇨🇳 competition. Starting with: 1) Narrative of choice and 2) Narrative of destiny.
And why they sound awfully familiar...
Has thinking about the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue evolved since its revival late 2017? What are debates within 🇺🇸🇦🇺🇯🇵🇮🇳? What are some regional responses, incl frm
#ASEAN
? All you need to know is in this collection:
"There is nothing sacred about the PRC's argument on historic rights in the
#SouthChinaSea
. They are the delusions of one Taiwanese academic. The delusions that are the main cause of problems in the SCS today. It's time to demolish this argument."
@bill_hayton
@AsiaMTI
An important visit to keep the momentum of
#US
#Vietnam
#defence
relations under
@Biden
administration and with
#Vietnam
's new leadership too.
Expecting some solid announcements and tangible cooperation.
No bilat 1-1 meeting between
@POTUS
&
#SoutheastAsia
heads of states attending the
#US
#ASEAN
summit?
@Reuters
Really? If so, that would be a really missed opportunity, esp how long it took to make this happen!
🇰🇷 Hana Micron plans to pour $1 billion into
#chip
production in
#Vietnam
by 2025, the latest in a wave of
#semiconductor
investments flooding into 🇻🇳.
The chip industry was a focus of 🇺🇸 President Biden's trip to 🇻🇳 in Sept.
It seems only recently that I gave you pre-posting briefing in CBR! Great to be able to send you off from Hanoi.
Congratulations on your exceptional tenure as
@AusAmbVN
, Robyn. It's been so satisfying to see 🇦🇺🇻🇳 relations going from strength to strength - much credit to you!
#EastTimor
's president-elect says
@ASEAN
membership a top priority.
This may be the first time that
#ASEAN
is an election issue (around election). And not even from a member (yet).
"The ongoing Afghanistan problem...gave a very peculiar context for
@VP
Harris' visit to Southeast Asia.
She had a pretty difficult (task)... of trying to put out the fire on speculations about the future of US commitment to the region."
@CollinSLKoh
&
@le2huong