When I started betting, I occasionally heard about price sensitivity.
I understood the concept, but a concrete breakdown would've saved me time and money.
Here's my attempt at a concrete breakdown to save you time and money, wherever you are as a bettor 🧵
What's one thing you wish you knew when you started betting? 🧵
For me, it's how to convert US odds to break-even percentages. Divide the odds by the sum of the odds plus 100. For underdogs, subtract that # from 1.
-110 = 110 / 210 = 52.4%
+110 = 1 - (110 / 210) = 47.6%
5 years ago today, we lost a legend.
RIP David Malinsky
Dec. 30, 1960 - April 14, 2018
Friend and father figure
Partner and mentor
Point Blank, the best man I've ever known
4 years ago today, we lost a legend in David Malinsky.
Until this week, I couldn't bring myself to revisit the podcast we created in 2017.
Today, the vault is unlocked. Enjoy this compilation episode of Dave at his best:
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🟢
3 months ago, I left a good job to pursue a dream job. It didn't work out.
If you know anyone who needs someone for content creation, marketing or media strategy, I'm available and ready to go.
(3/3) Rest In Peace, Dave. Friend and father figure, partner and mentor, point blank the best person I’ve ever met. It was an honor to know you and it will be a privilege to carry out your legacy for the rest of my life, forever using your light to guide the way.
#DavidMalinsky
I made a bet yesterday at a book that hasn't moved the odds but still won't take another bet from me.
Hang a number, take a hit, move the line -- or at least take another hit. What am I missing?
What's the most important skill in betting?
@spanky
makes a compelling case for money management.
Watch below for his insight on the art of staying in the game 👇
Full
@PropsAndHopsPod
:
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I was one of many to bet Falcons-Jets under 42. Line closed 38. Game landed 40.
For the “CLV doesn’t matter, just pick winners” crowd: What do you make of this?
Latest on the search for
#DavidMalinsky
, from a close friend: A crew of 8 is searching. Lead person has a canine. A helicopter is there. Thank you for the prayers.
Farewell from
@bet_bash
. I didn’t think last year could be topped but
@spanky
and
@CircaLasVegas
pulled it off, highlighted by a
@theSGHOF
induction ceremony that might never be matched in terms of sports betting wisdom in one room. Unforgettable finale to an unforgettable week.
The bash before Bet Bash. Had a blast working with
@SixthSenseNFL
and
@lasvegascris
all NFL season and just as much fun finally getting together in person 🍻
I couldn’t have scripted a better endorsement from better bettors. Thank you
@robpizzola
and Johnny and thank you to all followers, new and old. From the props to the hops, let’s keep finding edges 🍻
#DavidMalinsky
update: Metro and Red Rock Search and Rescue have new information. Search planned for tomorrow (Thursday) - volunteers needed. Harris Springs Road/Kyle Canyon Road at 7:45 a.m. FB event page w/ details: .
#FindDavidMalinsky
Cris is a living legend. The strength and clarity he summons to deliver this news make it arguably his best work yet.
To call Gambling Twitter polarizing would be an understatement, but I think we can all agree this video is worth watching and Cris is worth supporting.
**My Toughest Handicap**
I ask ALL my followers to PLEASE take a moment to view the 1st few minutes.
The full content has no sales, commercials, & has information that is of benefit to all.
I appreciate you taking the time to briefly watch, & hopefully the full video will
They say all good things come to an end.
@bet_bash
was as good as it gets. Thank you
@spanky
,
@CircaSports
and
@theDlasvegas
for making it possible and to everyone from
@PropsAndHopsPod
Bet Bash interview series guests to those who simply said hello for making it unforgettable.
Whether you're deciding on a bet or a relationship or a job, it's about all you can do to:
1. Seek and consider all available and meaningful information,
2. Make the best decision you can, and
3. Accept the results up front -- trusting that, over time, the process is the result.
All-time beat on shortest TD under 1.5 yards?
💸 1st & goal at 1: TD overturned, very iffy
💸 2nd & goal at 1-inch line: No gain
💸 3rd & goal at 1-inch line: Delay of game
💸 3rd & goal at 5: 4-yard rush
💸 4th & goal at 1: Incomplete pass
All after THREE 2-yard TDs...
(1/3) "If there is a universal message that we can establish, let it be one of the light being eternal, always shining regardless of whether our temporary circumstances allow us to see it, and the understanding that the light isn’t a particular place or moment..."
"Everything is a bet." -
@AnnieDuke
Allyson discusses the profound simplicity behind this concept and how we're all bettors, all the time.
Full
@PropsAndHopsPod
episode:
The risk, uncertainty and variance inherent in betting has so much in common with the risk, uncertainty and variance inherent in decisions across all walks of life.
(2/3) "...but is what makes it possible to better understand the incredible mysteries and beauties of our existence across all places and all moments. Without it, sometimes we only see clouds..." -David Malinsky
It might sound crazy for -500 to have value.
-500 = 500 / 600 = 83.3%
Trevor Penning is -500 to go in Round 1. Unless the Raiders trade for every Day 1 pick to draft Day 3 talent, it's happening.
-500 on Penning Round 1 is more valuable by a mile than +2000 on Howell top 10.
The hops are ready, and so are the props. Happy Super Sunday and thank you to everyone who’s made it a super season by hopping on
@PropsAndHopsPod
and connecting elsewhere to talk betting and beer 🏈 🍻
Where does Vegas disagree with the college football coaches poll -- and how can you bet accordingly? Pro bettor
@BradPowers7
"Volunteers" his take on a wager worth making 👇
Full
@PropsAndHopsPod
:
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(1/2) Props & Hops update: After considering what’s best for myself and the show’s growth, I’ve decided to keep hosting P&H on The Hammer.
Full-time job status aside, I kept coming back to making P&H the best show it can be.
Tip of the day: Don't bet out of FOMO. I was late to see a tip Friday on Brooks Lee to go
#1
in the MLB Draft. Refused to miss out and laid -300 after big plus money had been scooped up. Paid the price. Betting has a way of repeatedly teaching us the same basic lessons.
🚨 New
@PropsAndHopsPod
🚨
Handicapper
@ClevTA
on finding betting edges in the NFL, consulting teams and coaches with
@SharpFootball
, and balancing gambling with his day job
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🟢 👇
No major updates from Wednesday's search for
#DavidMalinsky
. Thanks to all for keeping going strong. Closing in on $12.4K in less than 24 hours and every bit counts. We continue doing our best to use every available resource to
#FindDavidMalinsky
.
🚨 New
@PropsAndHopsPod
🚨
Professional bettor and ESPN alum
@SportsCheetah
on in-game wagering, bankroll management, and a hidden angle on NFL teasers
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🟢 👇
I don’t always bet parlays. But when I do, I prefer correlation.
DAL 1H ATS
NYG 4Q ML
+339
If Dallas is up big at halftime, Philadelphia likely calls off the dogs at the Giants.
Parlays typically beg for bankroll management, but I like this at anything better than +300.
The Super Bowl beer lineup…
Thank you to all who made this the biggest season yet for
@PropsAndHopsPod
. Plenty to build on moving forward.
For now, here’s to the best day of the year to enjoy both the props and the hops 🏈 🍻
Top 5 March Madness Betting Tips (Thread)
1) Use pool size to inform bracket strategy.
In small pools (~10 entries or less), think boring and pick favorites.
In intermediate pools, pick spots to be contrarian.
In big pools (100+ entries), go nuts.
h/t
@thepowerrank
Going live in an hour at 4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT with
@Hitman428
for a Props & Hops NFL preseason betting primer. Tune in right here for real-time insights from one of the best.
#DavidMalinsky
update: Dave's niece has set up a Facebook group called Find David Malinsky to keep everyone posted and share information. Please join and spread the word.
#FindDavidMalinsky
Teaser Talk 🧵
I'm hearing a lot about teasers losing at an alarming rate this season, and you can bet my bankroll is feeling the pain. I'm not, however, hearing much underlying logic as to why teasers are losing at an alarming rate.
Possible explanations 👇
NFL Betting Prep 🧵
There's a ton of free and actionable NFL betting preview content (h/t
@SharpClarkeNFL
,
@ClevTA
and
@lasvegascris
to name a few) -- but if you're doing all your prep in front of a screen, I'd argue you're missing something vital.
🚨 New
@PropsAndHopsPod
🚨
NFL deep dive with pro bettor
@FezzikSports
: Preseason primer, regular-season angles, and edges that run the gambling gamut
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🟢 👇
NFL Draft Week Betting Tips 🧵
1) Value and vig can coexist. Some bets listed at +500 should be closer to +5000. Others listed at -500 should be closer to -5000.
Big payouts are more enticing than big vig, but often the juice is worth the squeeze.
Bet Bash Rehash: Top 5 Highlights 🧵
Unable to share a timely podcast recap due to travel plans, so will be sharing thoughts here on Bet Bash -- the highlights, tips for future attendees, and notes to my future self.
Starting with the top 5 of too many highlights to mention...
When Chris launched his podcast in 2015, I was instantly hooked.
If you would've told me then that I'd not only become friends with Chris, but also be invited to break down the Super Bowl on his hit show, my jaw would've hit the floor.
Hope you enjoy it as much as I did 🏈
Final Pod Before Our Winter Break!!!
🚨🚨🚨
I'll review a ton of Kyren Williams game film to describe how he did what he did in '23...
...and then
@LayOfTheLandes
will join to preview the Super Bowl and discuss why the books are offering what they're offering!
(link is 👇)
After a successful Super Stream debut last year, I've made the cut for Jack's epic thumbnail this year. The pressure is on....
"A" game coming in hot with both a prop and some hops. Come hang out with us 🏈 🍻
✅
@TheHammerHQ
launch
✅ Between the Lines with
@suuma810
✅
@PropsAndHopsPod
with
@Hitman428
And we’re just getting started.
An all-timer of a week calls for an all-timer of a beer. Time to finally sit back, relax and recharge 🍻
What’s the opposite of “garbage in, garbage out”? From Zach to the Jets and Mac for OROY (🤞) to interviews with me on
@PropsAndHopsPod
, thanks
@whale_capper
and
@AndyMSFW
for filling almost a full 1% of my year with all the expected value and entertainment value one could want.
While the stakes and circumstances are constantly changing, we're constantly making decisions. We're constantly betting. So sports betting prepares us for life.
As
@AnnieDuke
says in Thinking in Bets: "Everything is a bet."
Pumped to share my interview with
@tejfbanalytics
and
@arjunmenon100
, two of the brightest young minds in football analytics.
Here's a clip on the Chargers and Success Rate, EPA and variance 👇
Full
@PropsAndHopsPod
:
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How to bet on the NFL playoffs with more conviction 🧵
This thread is for recreational bettors who don't need huge limits. I put myself in this category.
We hear a lot about opening lines being the softest lines -- but how can we spot a beatable opener when we see it?
Bet Bash Rehash: 5 Notes to Future Self
1. Invite locals and early arrivers to hike Mt. Charleston prior to the Malinsky Memorial Meal at
@LotusOfSiam
(h/t
@FezzikSports
)
2. To preserve your voice, take speed networking conversations outside the main room (h/t
@capjack2000
)
🚨 Programming Alert: Interviewing
@adamchernoff
tomorrow at 1:30 p.m. ET/10:30 a.m. PT about his
@Covers
article on the perilous power balance between regulators, sportsbooks and bettors, and what's next.
Watch the live stream via my profile.
What's the best first step for a new bettor?
Pro bettor
@Gambleballs
makes the case for small markets: "It's a lot easier to start out winning than start out getting your ass kicked." 👇
Full
@PropsAndHopsPod
:
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(2/2) Working with
@Hitman428
,
@suuma810
and
@jacob_gramegna
, I think Props & Hops is as good as ever and look forward to building on that with them in the coming weeks and months.
Week 4 props episode with Hitman coming today.
Finding edges betting college football, revisited:
@BradPowers7
on Vegas vs. the Coaches Poll, using Week 0 results to uncover Week 1 value, and navigating breaking news 👇
- This is the single most important way to help right now in the search for
#DavidMalinsky
. Time is of the essence. No donation is too small. Sharing news of the GoFundMe to increase awareness is also greatly appreciated.
#FindDavidMalinsky
Sports betting can help you develop a sound process for bigger bets. And we all face bigger bets. No matter your bankroll, the biggest bets you make are on yourself and loved ones.