Rufus @RufusPeabody Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@Meech_Lovelace

@GodinezOmar

@JoeBiden

@Zoroxxn7

@iceandfireuk

@monoxy

@bladexxs

@Cardona_TV

@adkrable

@NeMu_yumebami

@girondins

@OfficiallyEmi

@SenorSwirls

@JackieP40793463

@StudioStringsCo

@ntalaoura

@henrieverdeen

@AelinRoby

@ChupaChupsFR

@yumeto_me

@mckeec

@ypisportal

@baddiesther

@kreem335

@vhiator

@cherienya_m16

@OncoworkshopIB

@RichardEri83816

@ambivalenthreat

@cherryhealey

@hellK111

@Ces_art_things

@DemainMontrouge

@gulbazmushtaq

@cinyc9

@Om_Phil

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

The people who think a 0.2% mortality rate for 30-39 year olds means they have no chance of dying are the same people betting 8-leg parlays with true odds of 500/1 every weekend.

136

481

4K

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

2 years

Gambling for a living for 12.5 years hasn’t just made me see the world in a different way, it’s made me a better person. Don’t stress over what you can’t control. Focus on the process of being the person you want to be. You can’t control the externals. Focus on the internal.

19

43

869

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

1 year

Alabama would be a 14.5-point favorite over TCU on a neutral. But if you think having one fewer loss means that much...

339

129

850

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

2 years

Well, that hurt.

85

61

730

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

I’m back to normal, everyone. Public Health informed me I’m no longer a corona person. Appreciate all the well wishes 🙏

32

6

612

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

I don't care how many followers I lose for tweeting this, but I believe in democracy. I believe every vote should count. What I didn't realize was that this was such a radical opinion.

49

23

591

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

Anyone who read @darrenrovell ’s coverage of Parlay Patz could tell you he had a serious gambling problem. And this is the road it led him down. Maybe the media should practice some moral responsibility before giving problem gamblers a platform.

Darren Rovell

@darrenrovell

4 years

DEVELOPING: Gambler “Parlay Patz” charged with allegedly threatening athletes with graphic death messages via social media

144

83

326

29

41

466

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

Teams win 98% of games when their QB kneels at least twice

12

47

468

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

I've been betting sports for 11 years and made enough to comfortably retire using nothing more complex statistically than ordered logistic regressions and multilevel models. More complex != better. It's about processing & contextualizing the data, and asking the right questions.

31

21

467

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

Chris Davis hitless streak reaches 37 ABs (w/ 24 Ks in that time). Only nine away from the record, held by Eugenio Velez (2010-2011).

15

102

389

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

Biggest hits this year

24

9

392

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

PSA: parlaying big moneyline favorites is not a recipe for long-term success.

54

36

371

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

Bettors are more honest with themselves and learn more quickly than academics. When being wrong costs you money, you can only be stubborn for so long.

20

37

377

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 months

Since nobody asked, here's my take on the Pebble Beach should-crazy-parlays-placed-right-before-rd3-ended-be-paid controversy: Agree or disagree, my perspective has been shaped by how I came up in the industry, and that was in Las Vegas, working for oddsmakers who had spent…

80

41

374

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

1 year

FanDuel adjusting their NFL side/total parlay odds when they are positively correlated (fav/over, dog/und) but not adjusting at all for the negatively correlated legs. Makes the theoretical hold for side/total parlay in this case over 16%! Not cool.

35

34

361

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

Why did the Titans win? It's simple. The Ravens did not convert their high-leverage chances (0/4 on 4th down) & turned the ball over three times. Their offense didn't stink; they only punted once. Turnovers and not converting high leverage situations.

29

43

358

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

1 year

Dear @BetMGMSupport -- after I uploaded all the documents you asked me for, for the last 3 weeks you've denied 4 withdrawal requests. No follow-up. Nothing. Live chat said you'd reach out. They were wrong. How long will my money be held hostage?

80

40

355

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

On the off chance these are helpful, I'm making available my senior thesis on psychological inefficiencies in the baseball betting market (from 2008), as well as the lit review on sports betting I wrote in the summer of 2007 (which is probably more useful)

15

23

344

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

2 years

I go to bet a R2 MU on @CircaSports app. 2k limit. But they only take 1k. 2 minutes later I get a msg from @JeffreyBenson12 saying limit supposed to be 2k and they'll move the line back if I want the other dime. Find me better customer service than Jeff Benson... in any industry.

15

11

338

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

So... I have coronavirus. I got tested Tuesday and am awaiting my result, but someone I lived with tested positive (I likely gave it to her). Based on the timing of my symptoms (started Sat 3/7) I'm afraid I may have been contagious at #SSAC20 ...

114

53

329

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

My buddy: "Pats gonna lose, you can’t bet against Andy Reid when he’s 2 games away from eating unlimited Big Macs at the White House"

5

65

324

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

1 year

Imagine waking up and deciding that a meaningful thing to do is trolling someone for not betting enough.

Norm Benning

@Norm_Benning

1 year

Imagine suing a sportsbook over $2300 and also exposing you bet like a peasant.

54

5

48

24

5

328

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

If this doesn’t succinctly sum up America in 2019, I don’t know what does.

New York Post

@nypost

4 years

Holly Sonders' new boyfriend is gambler Vegas Dave

75

7

50

62

18

306

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

1 year

In sports betting, I know I can't control the result of a game I bet on. All I can do is control my process. The rest is up to chance. It's taken me a lot longer to realize that life isn't all that different. (1/3)

13

44

313

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

VERY big story. DraftKings execs alleged to have knowingly facilitated & encouraged illegal proxy betting for whales. When one started winning, they froze his account and cried foul. If these allegations are true, DK's gaming license could be in jeopardy.

Exclusive: DraftKings And $3M Bettor Battling Over Frozen Funds

All is not well between DraftKings and its $3 million parlay bettor. In fact, there's much more to the story.

sportshandle.com

43

65

303

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

6 months

I don’t think people realize how difficult it is to deal with the vitriol that can be directed at people who voice their opinions in a public forum. It’s hard to have your motives questioned and be torn down relentlessly. On the other hand, it’s very easy to anonymously…

62

12

303

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

2 years

I have found a golf course in Las Vegas where I can tee off at 6pm and consistently get 18 holes in before sunset at 7:30. This is how golf should be. If i can get around in 90 minutes damn right I’m going to play every day.

48

2

296

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

Please remember: If you buy a pick from a tout, if the tout has a 55% win rate (which would be extraordinary!) betting at -110, you need to bet 20 times the price of the pick JUST TO BREAK EVEN.

32

49

276

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

Ok, now that I know it did cost me a million I’m a little more upset.

51

34

273

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

In the spirit of being transparent... I struggle with self-doubt all the freaking time. Has gotten worse as I've gotten older. (The more you know, the more you know you don't know.) Not feeling like I'm good enough, worrying that it's only a matter of time until my edge is gone.

30

4

283

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

1 year

Opening day with my pops!

18

0

282

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

Can we please pass a Constitutional amendment disqualifying anyone over 75 from the presidency

25

12

270

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

Life is filled with things outside of your control. This is a lesson sports betting has taught me over the years. Worrying about things outside your control is a recipe for unhappiness. Accept things as they are; don’t dwell on the what-ifs.

29

26

264

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

"Oancea admitted he was addicted to gambling and lost all he made over a five- to eight-year period.... Oancea is viewed as a “parasite” and “black eye” on the industry, say former customers, fellow sports gamblers and a Las Vegas sportsbook employee."

29

32

259

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

1 year

The Vikings are the bettor who's 40-20 ATS on NFL sides this year despite getting negative CLV and thinks they're a genius.

42

16

262

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

This is why betting is great. If this guy is so convinced that he’s right and the world is wrong, he’d bet on it. I’ll happily do as many iterations of the MHP as he’d like, switching every time, and I’d even lay -150!

23

15

264

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

Blocked by @darrenrovell . He throws punches but won't take 'em.

32

5

255

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

2 years

Just had this realization. Stress doesn't come from how much you work (in my case). It comes from how much space work takes up in your head. If you only do 2 hours of work in a day but it's still in the back of your mind, hanging over your head. That's where the stress comes from

24

8

252

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

🙋‍♂️. And it's a point of pride. I'm proud to admit I drive the same '04 Civic I did 12 years ago. It's got 198,000 miles and is still on its first clutch. I'm not a 'car guy' and cars are awful investments. I'd rather spend less money on a car and more on real estate.

Chris

@tysdad16

3 years

@RufusPeabody Who has the same car from 2008? Lol

3

0

3

33

1

239

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

2 years

Happiness comes from staying in the present moment. Anxiety arises when we worry about the future or the past. I’ve found something that’s been very helpful in keeping me in the present:

9

17

245

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

1 year

If you believe, as I do, that time is the most valuable currency, then spending time worrying about things outside of your control is like spending money on ... nothing.

20

19

240

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

2 years

Blast from the past! Found an old excel spreadsheet with my bet log from sports betting, poker, video poker, and blackjack from July-Oct 2008 when I had just moved to Vegas and was working with a 10k bankroll.

28

4

231

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

Why can’t sportsbooks have a downloadable csv bet history file? Logging bets on many sites is more difficult than finding a pregame/wagertalk tout’s long-term record. It’s almost like they don’t want bettors to know how much they’ve lost. 🤔

20

2

233

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

Let's assume you're down 14 and score 2 TDs (and opp doesn't score). For simplicity, PAT=100%, 2pt=50%. S1: 2pt✅, PAT✅, WIN (50%) S2: 2pt❌, 2pt❌, LOSE by 2 (25%) S3: 2pt❌, 2pt✅, Force OT (25%) If WP(OT)=50%, WP=62.5% going for 2 vs. 50% if you kick 2 PATs to force OT.

Habeeb Nabeeb

@GHFishReport

4 years

@RufusPeabody @Covers_Vegas I’m all for “mathematically right” moves but can you break this down for us? Not sure how not plying for a shot at OT is not mathematically correct...

1

0

4

12

51

224

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

If you participated in a debate drinking game, rest in peace

8

27

223

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

2 years

"Suffering is wishing things were other than they are." --Buddha The hardest thing about bad beats is that we psychologically think we SHOULD be somewhere we're not. The bet SHOULD have won. I should have X more dollars than I do. (short thread)

8

18

225

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

1 year

The rare article in the mainstream media that presents an informed, accurate, and contextualized picture of how U.S. sportsbooks treat bettors they suspect of being sharp.

Sportsbooks say you can win big. Then they try to limit winners.

Sportsbooks are increasingly attempting to limit their least favorite type of customers: Winners.

www.washingtonpost.com

21

70

229

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

How often do you think people who've never placed a sports bet before wake up one morning and decide to fly to Vegas to bet their entire savings on one event? Looking at this story through a Bayesian lens makes it seem much less credible.

38

9

222

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

I'll correct this for you: at #DDTG we all link hands to defeat the suits, unless you're a sports bettor at Penn National, in which case I'm the suit.

Dave Portnoy

@stoolpresidente

3 years

It doesn’t matter if you’re crypto, stocks, or fiat, here at #DDTG we all link hands to defeat the suits

129

75

839

6

19

220

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

I’ve never understood the hoopla and excitement surrounding the NFL Draft. I’m content to read the list of players picked afterwards.

32

18

214

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

A lot of us are critical of coaching decisions on here. I think John Harbaugh made all the right decisions tonight. Just didn't happen to work out.

30

10

219

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

Someone want to explain to me how lowering interest rates will stimulate the economy when everyone is staying home?

65

10

216

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

On self-acceptance: We talk about how toxic #gamblingtwitter is but rarely do we talk about its effects. I’m going to talk about my journey to self-acceptance & how twitter made me less happy in the short-term but ultimately enabled this journey which has been a huge plus.(1/15)

16

13

217

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

2 years

Yeah, I feel gutted. But nothing I can do. Outside my control. Experience the disappointment. Then reset, and move on. No "what ifs" allowed. That's how you survive doing this as long as I have.

12

6

214

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

This post is intended for the 7 Bet The Process listeners out there (hi mom). Jeff and I (and multiple guests!!) will be recording a Masters podcast this week so massive that we might have to release it in two parts.

18

5

214

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

This tweet is in honor of the people I’ve seen in sportsbooks complaining about hitting 7 legs of an 8-teamer: You are N times more likely to hit all but one leg of an N-leg parlay than to hit every leg.

11

13

209

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

A personal message to @itsvegasdave : I know you have to pay off your gambling debts first, but if there's any money left, I urge you to consider paying back the customers you scammed. You could set a "record" for biggest turnaround from con artist to "decent human being"

14

15

211

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

Only senator to vote against bipartisan coronavirus relief bill is the only senator to test positive.

23

15

212

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

This might be one game, but Matt Flynn got paid $20.5 million for less.

14

207

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

2 years

The most successful person at Bet Bash (by orders of magnitude) flew completely under the radar. He asked everyone about themselves & said very little about himself. He was there to learn. Most people he talked to had no idea who he was. That's the kind of success I admire.

27

3

202

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

To my new followers: No, I don’t sell picks. No, I’m not going to start selling picks.

21

4

194

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

It's fascinating how we think of extremely unlikely events differently depending on their context.

3

8

196

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

Vegas Dave: "I smashed [Vegas] so fucking bad where they banned me. They don't even want me on their properties. I go to jail for trespassing. That's how much these casinos in Vegas fear me." William Hill: Continued to RAISE VD's limits for years until he got federally charged.

17

31

193

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

Wake up and all of a sudden my portfolio is massively +EV

17

1

192

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

This really is one of those once-in-a-blue-moon betting events, like Mayweather/McGregor. Not as certain, obviously, but the betting volume is so high and there is so much square and price-insensitive money coming in on Trump that the market price is not at all efficient.

27

19

191

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

9 months

Sports betting Twitter panel at @bet_bash @CircaSports . Darren Rovell: “I’m part of the problem”

26

20

195

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

If I were using the Vegas Dave system of record keeping, I’d be 1-0 betting on the Jets.

13

2

191

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

Desert 🌵 sunrise. Nothing like it.

7

2

188

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

One thing I really like about my job is that there's an (objective) scoreboard that tells me whether I'm doing a good job or not. In the short run, luck plays a huge role but long term, you can't fake it. To quote Parcells: "You are what your record says you are". Just win, baby.

6

5

190

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

Eagles offsides penalty coming...

17

10

184

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

Sad to report that my Honda Civic will fall 1,700 miles short of 200,000. It’s sitting, unlocked, with keys in the car, on a side street across from an adult superstore off Spring Mountain, waiting for Kars4kids it (or someone else) to take it. Here’s how it went down 👇

28

9

186

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

2 years

The term analytics has lost all meaning. It’s just a buzzword now. It’s like using “math” to refer to both differential equations and addition/subtraction. What some refer to analytics is actually simple arithmetic. “Analytics says X” is like saying “books say Y”.

11

21

188

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

If this is true, he put basically bet everything he had on a bet that had more than a 90% chance of losing. That's worse than VD betting it all on "red" in roulette. I just hope this story won't inspire other people to be completely irresponsibly.

35

20

184

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

1 year

It gets harder and harder to be productive as I get older. More complexity in my life, more demands on my time, more switching between tasks. As someone with ADHD, my superpower is diving deep into a project, and I don't get to do that much anymore. I need to make some changes.

32

4

183

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

Update: confirmed positive

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

So... I have coronavirus. I got tested Tuesday and am awaiting my result, but someone I lived with tested positive (I likely gave it to her). Based on the timing of my symptoms (started Sat 3/7) I'm afraid I may have been contagious at #SSAC20 ...

114

53

329

60

6

178

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

2 years

This brothers trip will be hard to beat. Can’t wait for tomorrow morning! (Cc @JTDPeabody )

14

2

182

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

For those wondering where Vegas Dave got the dough to start, his parents have bailed him out "at least 5 times" and spent over $700,000 paying off his gambling debts. They even loaned him money to bet on his Royals futures. He makes money from selling subscriptions, not winning.

24

36

169

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

Stealing a friend's opinion here, but it's poignant: Trump voters fall into 2 categories: The first actually believe in his rhetoric & populism; the others could care less what he says as long as their taxes are down and the stock market is up. It's a perfect position to be in.

56

11

174

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 months

Holy jesus I hit 50k followers. I remember I thought it was a big deal when I hit 1,000. I know I haven't given y'all much reason to follow in the last year. I've kind of gotten away from being on here regularly, but really appreciate you thinking I'm worth paying attention to🙏

14

2

177

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

I've been betting for a living for 12 years now (and hope to continue for many more), and while I still love most aspects about it, I've been looking to do something more. I’ve been outspoken about my views on the sports betting industry: How I feel about touts, (1/x)

21

8

171

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

Clay, they were talking about us being two weeks behind Italy. So comparing us now to Italy now doesn’t make sense. Also, comparing number of cases doesn’t work without controlling for number of people tested and who is tested (I.e. presumed positives, general population)

Clay Travis

@ClayTravis

4 years

We now have more coronavirus cases than Italy & their death rate is 8x ours. The more testing we do, the greater the death rate gap between us and Italy becomes. All those people sharing fear porn graphs about how we were going to be Italy? They were all wrong.

367

529

3K

22

5

172

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

Flying @SouthwestAir , boarding in the low “B”s is preferable to “A”s when flying solo. Hear me out — I can still get a window or aisle, but I get to choose who I sit next to. That’s value.

22

17

171

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

This is your friendly reminder that Vegas Dave bet all the money he had borrowed for college on one roulette spin. He's about as sharp as one of those roulette balls.

17

23

168

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

This is amazing. I’d lay a big price it’s over by Christmas. Reminder: lifestyle funded by gullible newbie bettors

Holly Sonders and Vegas Dave Talk Marriage After Dating 6 Days, 'We're In Love'

Talk about moving FAST!!!

www.tmz.com

67

7

160

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

Very excited to say we're taping a @BetTheProcess pod today with #JeopardyJames !

8

7

171

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

Not all interceptions are created equal. Pick sixes? Awful. INTs on third down deep balls? Not as costly. Whose INTs have hurt their team the least? Mahomes. (Surprised?) The tables below show avg expected points added (EPA) per INT for all active QBs (min 600 pass att)

28

18

170

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

Excited to announce I'm looking to hire an analyst to our betting team. Putting together a job listing which I should have ready in the next few days.

24

4

170

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

Best article I've read about coronavirus and why 'drastic' measures really aren't drastic at all.

8

58

168

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

No gambler would ever think a dime refers to 10k.

Mike McDonald

@MikeMcDonald89

4 years

One of the more interesting disputes I've had to resolve. How much money was wagered here?

238

5

64

22

4

165

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

Off-brand but this was a really compelling read.

12

17

165

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

Birthday balls!

16

0

169

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

5 years

I met Woodland when I was inside the ropes (thanks ESPN) during a practice round of the 2016 Phoenix Open. He asked what I made his odds. I told him 43/1. “That sounds about right”, he replied.

2

14

163

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

For the record, DK never paid me any settlement from the #SBNC debacle. What’s the takeaway? If you’re a victim of someone else creating an unfair playing field, you get paid. If you’re a victim of DK creating an unfair playing field, you’re SOL.

David Payne Purdum

@DavidPurdum

4 years

This is related to the controversy over Jade Roper Tolbert, an ex-contestant on "The Bachelor," winning a $1 million DraftKings' fantasy contest during NFL wild-card weekend. Obviously, the statement is vague. ESPN has reached out to the Tolberts' for comment

17

14

62

10

19

161

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

WE'RE HIRING! Read:

33

29

161

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

2 years

Rest In Peace big guy.

4

2

159

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

2 months

Legalized sports betting is not good for society. But iCasino is going to make it look benign by comparison.

Haralabos Voulgaris

@haralabob

2 months

How many years till Sports Gambling addiction becomes a massive problem in the USA. The number of college aged (and younger) kids obsessed with gambling is way too high, and nearly every platform and league are promoting the *f* out of gambling to their fans.

662

972

9K

26

8

163

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

2 years

Today, I remember my grandfather, Lt. Gen. Welborn G. Dolvin, one of the 50 most decorated officers in U.S. military history.

6

3

163

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

4 years

Data mining at its finest. 🤦‍♂️

FOX Bet Sportsbook

@FOXBet

4 years

Kansas City may be the favorite but @ClayTravis has a trend that shows why Tennessee looks like the sharp play on Sunday. 📈👀💰 #TrendSpotting #NFLPlayoffs #TENvsKC

60

6

77

19

7

159

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

3 years

I have not voted in every election since I was eligible to vote. Not proud of that. But this election is not the one to sit out. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE VOTE! I don't care what side you're on (well, I do care, but I'm not gonna suppress you if you don't agree with me)

13

3

161

Rufus

@RufusPeabody

2 years

Car broke down today in rural maine. (Luckily I got it to a golf course to wait for the 2.5 hour tow to the closest dealership.) I think there’s some kinks in their process that need to be ironed out.

18

1

162