Joe Twyman @JoeTwyman Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Joe Twyman

@JoeTwyman

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Co-founder and director of the public opinion consultancy Deltapoll. Former Head of Political at YouGov (2000-18). "Housewives' favourite pollster" - The Times.

London, UK

https://t.co/OVIBVyiUqJ

Joined June 2010

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

7 months

Representative sampling delivers data that accurately represents and reports the opinions of the population it is trying to research. Given a number of recent examples I feel compelled to send out this slide from my 'Making Numbers Count' presentation on evaluating samples.

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Last Seen Profiles

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

7 months

Swimming Instagram discovering the downside of just googling motivational quotes without context.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

2 years

This was 100 days ago.

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Boris Johnson 'actively thinking about' third term as PM

The PM says he will lead his party into the next election and beyond, despite criticism of his leadership.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

4 years

I find it interesting that many of the people who are consistently late for work meetings due to traffic are also consistently late for zoom calls from home.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

5 years

Around one in six British adults don't have a passport. Around one in four don't have a driving license (and for some ethnic groups that number rises to nearly one in two). Requiring photographic ID at polling stations will have consequences.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

4 years

NEW: An employment lawyer has gone through the details of Sonia Khan's dismissal and suggests 'Cummings could find himself jointly and severally liable for the compensation' and that it's unlikely Ms Khan will be 'claiming anything less than six figures'.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

3 years

I know it's not the main point, but amazing to think that this time last year it was warm enough to sit outside in just a shirt with sleeves rolled up.

@lewis_goodall

Lewis Goodall

3 years

A year ago today.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

2 years

Thoughts with the whole of the Oldfield family tonight.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

2 years

🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead up to eleven points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 32% (-2) Lab 43% (+3) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Other 16% (-) Fieldwork: 13-14 April 2022 Sample: 1,550 Changes from 8-11 Mar 2022

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

2 years

I worked with Nadhim Zahawi for a decade. In my experience, his greatest strength is negotiating the best deal.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

5 years

Latest EU Referendum Voting Intention from Deltapoll (comparison with 5-7 Sept): Leave 45 (-2) Remain 55 (+2) Sample: 2,017 Fieldwork: 18-21 Oct 2019

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

4 years

In 2017 the difference between a working Conservative majority and the hung parliament we ended up with? 75 votes. SEVENTY FIVE VOTES. With under two weeks to go it's perhaps worth remembering how fine the margins of victory and loss can be in a First Past the Post system.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

1 year

Today marks five years since what I regard as the definitive example of a debate on British political twitter.

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Joe Twyman

7 years

When Britain leaves the EU what should the government look to bring back? @YouGov provided the list and this is what we found. #BrexitDay

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

6 months

In honour of the announcement of WeWork's bankruptcy, here are the instructions I used to send people coming to visit Deltapoll when we were in the Waterloo WeWork. (This was before the basketball hoop with a TV as a backboard was installed)

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Joe Twyman

5 years

Compared to Brecon and Radnorshire there are currently 45 constituencies held by Conservative MPs that are 1) Less safe and 2) Have higher proportions estimated to have voted Remain.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

7 months

To repeat, there are vanishingly few people out there who are saying “My mortgage has gone up a huge amount and my heating bills have doubled, but I have heard the government is going to do something about small boats so I am back voting Conservative”.

@christopherhope

Christopher Hope📝

@christopherhope

7 months

A Tory MP WhatsApps me five ways to fix his party's electoral woes: 1. Stop the boats 2. Clamp down on legal migration 3. Ditch policies like Conversion therapy ban that will cause public splits in party 4. Help SMEs to grow with targeted tax cuts 5. Reduce tax burden on families

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Joe Twyman

4 years

Conservative lead now down to 3 points. Latest voting intention from Deltapoll: Conservative 41% (-2) Labour 38% (-) Lib Dem 8% (-) Other 13% (+2) 1,547 GB adults Fieldwork: 4th-5th June

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Joe Twyman

4 years

We can all learn from @ChrisMasonBBC . When working from home make sure you too have a massive clock, a huge toothbrush and a phone to call the 1970s.

@ChrisMasonBBC

Chris Mason

4 years

This certainly *wasnt* part of my pitch for the #bbcaq job, I can tell you that for nowt @BBCRadio4 #wfhsetup

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Joe Twyman

2 years

🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead at twelve points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 31% (-) Lab 43% (+1) Lib Dem 11% (+1) Other 15% (-2) Fieldwork: 19-22 August 2022 Sample: 1,588 (Changes from 21-23 July 2022)

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Joe Twyman

3 years

🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour trail Conservatives by just 1 point in latest results from Deltapoll for tomorrow's Mail on Sunday. Con 38% (-4) Lab 37% (-) Lib Dem 9% (+3) Other 16% (+1) Fieldwork: 13-15 Oct 2021 Sample: 3,043 Changes from 23-26 July 2021

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Joe Twyman

2 years

Yes, by-elections are always unusual. Yes, it's mid-term etc. etc. But..... There are 291 Conservative MPs with a seat that is less safe than Tiverton and Honiton.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

7 years

Our poll has Labour ahead by 8%. Last time they were that far in front? March 14. Last time Labour were above 45% in a @YouGov poll? NEVER.

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Joe Twyman

4 years

It's extraordinarily difficult to know exactly how explicit to be about sex research on @BBCr4today at 7.40 on Boxing Day morning, but since @bbcnickrobinson asked, those who fantasise about having sex with an MP are statistically more likely to vote Conservative.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

12 days

If it were actually true that Susan Hall had won in London (and words cannot describe how big an 'If' that is), it would represent a polling error far in excess of anything in the history of our industry.

@theousherwood

Theo Usherwood

12 days

CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told. As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”. *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

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Joe Twyman

7 years

'Douglas Carswell with Boris Johnson and someone else.' Top photo captioning from the Essex Chronicle.

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Joe Twyman

6 years

Yes, getting a #bluepassport back after #Brexit is important to some people. But it's not as popular as the return of.... say.... the death penalty.

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Joe Twyman

7 years

Theresa May was 39 points ahead of Jeremy Corbyn on the question of best PM at the start of the campaign. That lead is now completely gone.

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Joe Twyman

4 years

What are your parents up to during lockdown? Because mine have taken it upon themselves to dress up my Grandma to look like Whistler's Mother (albeit a more colourful version).

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Joe Twyman

2 years

🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead at eleven points in latest results from Deltapoll for The Mail on Sunday. Con 31% Lab 42% Lib Dem 10% Other 17% Fieldwork: 21-23 July 2022 Sample: 1,588

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Joe Twyman

6 years

I have the utmost respect for the 20 year old student from Trinity College, Oxford who, to settle an argument with a friend, emailed @YouGov to ask how many British people his age had seen all the Harry Potter films. I will now be making it my mission to find out. #Christmas

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Joe Twyman

5 years

Revoking Article 50 comes out top of the eight Iterative Vote options, but the top four, including No Deal, are essentially neck-and-neck. No one option gets close to support from a majority of the public. #thiscanonlyendwell

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Joe Twyman

7 years

Prediction for new season of #GameOfThrones : Cersei calls snap election, surprise result not confirmed until exit poll during season finale.

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Joe Twyman

3 years

I am going to go ahead and say that the Conservative Party's needs to work on their survey design.

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Joe Twyman

6 years

At Deltapoll, we asked Leave voters in Britain to choose between leaving the #EU and peace in #NorthernIreland . Nearly 6 out of 10 said the UK leaving the EU was more important. #Brexit

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Joe Twyman

4 years

How important is Britain in the world? The British people put Britain at number two in our list, behind the US but ahead of China and the European Union.

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Joe Twyman

8 years

Hotel receptionist at check in: 'Are you here for anything nice or are you here for the conference?' #Lab16

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Joe Twyman

7 years

Let us not forget that in 2007 over 1 million people signed a UK govt petition to change the national anthem to 'Gold' by Spandau Ballet.

@mattuthompson

Matthew Thompson

7 years

Le Pen proposes a system of popular referendums. 500,000 signatures would be required to call one and overturn any law

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Joe Twyman

5 years

Latest Voting Intention from Deltapoll (comparison with 5-7 Sept): Con 37 (+6) Lab 24 (-4) Lib Dem 19 (+2) Brexit Party 11 (-2) Others 9 (-2) Sample: 2,017 Fieldwork: 18-21 Oct 2019

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Joe Twyman

5 years

@TaylorLorenz @jimwaterson That reminds me, when is the new series of Black Mirror out?

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Joe Twyman

8 years

At ease everyone. We did not run any snap poll tonight on the Labour leadership contest (or anything else). Anything you have seen is fake.

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Joe Twyman

4 years

Going too fast or too slow? Latest results from Deltapoll shows moving too quickly to lift #COVID19 restrictions is by far the greater worry for the British public - including across all generations and political groups.

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Joe Twyman

2 years

🚨🚨New Large Sample Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour increase their lead to nine points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 32% (-3) Lab 41% (+1) Lib Dem 11% (+1) Other 16% (+1) Fieldwork: 12-16 Jan 2022 Sample: 4,292 Changes from 23-30 Dec 2021

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Joe Twyman

8 years

@philjardine01 I am not aware of YouGov running any snap poll and I am Head of Political Research at YouGov. Do you know something I don't?

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

6 years

Possibly unpopular (but entirely correct and accurate) opinion: I enjoyed #Bodyguard but #KillingEve is better by a country mile and the best thing on British TV at the moment.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

4 years

Ten years ago Steve Hilton was one of the most senior people in Downing Street, busy promoting The Big Society. Ten years is a long time.

@realDonaldTrump

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

4 years

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Joe Twyman

7 years

It's Friday afternoon and time to redecorate the @YouGov office. We decided to take our inspiration from Downing Street.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

2 years

The 1922 Committee appears to be broadly normally distributed.

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Joe Twyman

3 years

Just imagine a reputable news outlet publishing the following. There would quite rightly be uproar. So why is this any different?

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Joe Twyman

2 years

Don't have the numbers yet, but my sense is that sanctions such as those set out in this thread would be supported by the British public. In terms of public opinion, it is pretty much an open goal. But of course it is not just opinion of the electorate Johnson is concerned with.

@guywalters

Guy Walters 🇺🇦

2 years

If the UK really wants to hit the Russians where it hurts, remove the visas from the 2,300 Russian pupils at British private schools.

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Joe Twyman

4 years

Imagine telling Chris Whitty at the start of 2020 about the series of events that would need to take place so that he could end up appearing on comedy birthday cards by the end of the year.

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Joe Twyman

2 years

@tompeck Slightly disappointed they didn't start with "Previously on Wagatha Christie..."

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Joe Twyman

2 years

🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead at twelve points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 32% (+1) Lab 44% (+2) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Other 15% (-2) Fieldwork: 9-12 September 2022 Sample: 2,096 GB adults (Changes from 31 August - 2 September 2022)

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Joe Twyman

4 years

Manifestos are like the fixed menu on the outside of a restaurant. You may like some of it, you may not like all of it, but if the restaurant looks dodgy you'll eat elsewhere.

@MrHarryCole

Harry Cole

4 years

Love how they keep saying the labour manifesto “polled well”. Expect of course, when it was put to an actual poll of the people. 🧐

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Joe Twyman

2 years

This alleged behaviour from the whips that we are hearing about would make a great book or TV series.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

4 years

Half of those working in Britain say that cannot work from home. This rises to nearly two thirds of C2DEs. Fewer than a third can work from home without it impacting their earnings. Asking people not to travel unless their work 'cannot be done from home' may not be nearly enough.

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Joe Twyman

4 years

Regardless of your politics, I think we can all be glad of the Twelfth Amendment to the US Constitution which means the runner-up in the Presidential Election no longer serves as Vice President.

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Joe Twyman

4 years

Did Labour lose more votes in Leave-leaning constituencies? Yes - but the relationship is quite weak. 1/5

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Joe Twyman

7 years

In 2015 the #ExitPoll had Conservatives on 316 and they eventually won 330. It's going to be a long night. #GE2017

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

5 years

We have reached that point where in London you can see someone wearing a coat and scarf walking past someone wearing shorts and flipflops. And yet somehow there is not a name for this day, let alone a Wikipedia page. Suggestions?

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

4 years

Perhaps time for reminder of behavioural economist Dan Ariely's quote: 'Big data is like teenage sex: everyone talks about it, nobody really knows how to do it, everyone thinks everyone else is doing it, so everyone claims they are doing it.'

@SamCoatesSky

Sam Coates Sky

4 years

No10 looking to enhance its “quantitative ability” New job advertisement for a position paying up to £135,000 a year in the “10 Data Science” team to better use data in government Another part of the Dominic Cummings reforms, it seems...

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Joe Twyman

7 years

So a week out Jim Messina had the Tories on 304 seats did he? In that case why did he tweet the following? Care to explain @Messina2012 ?

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

4 years

Should Britain go into an immediate national 'circuit breaker' lockdown? More than six out of ten support the idea, including a majority in all regions, all age groups and among voters for the three main parties. Fewer than a third are opposed to it.

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Joe Twyman

3 years

Back in 2016 I spoke frequently about how unusual it was then to find any celebrity under 30 who took a public stand on politics. Politicians could usually rely on high-profile sportspeople in Britain particularly not to comment. Times have changed.

@TyroneMings

Tyrone Mings

3 years

You don’t get to stoke the fire at the beginning of the tournament by labelling our anti-racism message as ‘Gesture Politics’ & then pretend to be disgusted when the very thing we’re campaigning against, happens.

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Joe Twyman

2 years

🚨🚨New Voting Intention Results🚨🚨 Labour lead up to ten points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 32% (-) Lab 42% (+1) Lib Dem 10% (-1) Other 16% (-) Fieldwork: 25-27 Jan 2022 Sample: 1,515 Changes from 12-16 Jan 2022

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

7 years

On party manifestos: You might like sound of some things on the menu, but if you don't like the look of the restaurant you'll eat elsewhere.

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Joe Twyman

4 years

FFS. I had hoped this would go without saying - no matter how much people might like a given result.

Remember polls conducted

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Joe Twyman

3 years

NEW: Keir Starmer has fallen to his lowest net approval rating in Deltapoll's latest survey. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson's rating continues to improve, pulling ahead of Starmer for the first time since May last year.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

1 year

Agatha Christie's highest selling book is one of the best selling books of all time but also a great example of how public opinion changes over time. 'And Then There Were None' was first published in 1939, but very, very few people would refer to it by its original title today.

@MTSundayExpress

Martin Townsend

@MTSundayExpress

1 year

This is absolutely disgraceful. The greatest crime writer of all re-worked by the infamous Woke overlords at #HarperCollins Why not just burn them ? We are living in dark, dark days indeed... @Telegraph

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

4 years

@MarinaHyde Does it work like this?: 1. Shock and denial 2. Pain and guilt 3. Anger and bargaining 4. Depression 5. Blaming Marina Again For That Article That Time 6. Taking Some Fucking Responsibility

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

5 years

Sing along if you know the words... Polls are only ever a snapshot of public opinion, not a prediction. They are all subject to a margin of error. That margin of error increases when it comes to testing hypothetical scenarios of which most people have limited understanding.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

7 years

@stellacreasy I think you mean bringing back 42.195km bars? #seewhatIdidthere

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Joe Twyman

4 years

@richardosman @mrjamesob What time is Going for Gold on?

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

6 years

Should President Trump be invited to visit Britain? Data from @YouGov shows a substantial fall in support for Donald Trump's State Visit. A majority of Brits now oppose such a visit, while fewer than a third support it.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

7 years

Leavers much more likely than Remainers to believe Diana was assassinated, the moon landings were faked and aliens have been in contact. 2/2

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

4 years

More than a quarter of British adults placed Britain at the very top: the number one most important in the world. This figure rises to a third or more of Conservative voters and Leave voters.

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Joe Twyman

3 years

Is the British population gripped by Cancel Culture™? The data says No. In fact, the whole issue is an excellent example of noise being confused with volume. I have written all about what Deltapoll's new survey shows in this piece for the @NewStatesman .

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Exclusive: Politicians may obsess about “cancel culture”, but the British public doesn’t know what...

New polling by Deltapoll finds that fewer than one in 20 UK adults could name a celebrity whose "cancellation" they supported.

www.newstatesman.com

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

4 years

Should the #Brexit transition period be extended because of #COVID19 ? A majority in Britain think so, including more than four out of ten Leavers.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

3 years

Really very disappointed to see The @Guardian publish an entire article based on a Twitter poll. Everybody involved should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves. (H/T @PollingUnPacked )

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Removed: article

Removed article

www.theguardian.com

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

3 years

Regular reminder that, in the unique context of the COVID pandemic, it is unlikely any individual scandal will have a lasting impact on public support for the government. Key question is instead the cumulative effect of ALL these scandals in the longer term, once dust settles.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

4 years

25 of the top 50 Conservative constituencies in England with the highest percentage of school pupils on free school meals were gains at the 2019 General Election. One would assume this fact is not lost on the newly formed Northern Research Group.

@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

4 years

THREAD: The ten constituencies in England with the largest absolute number of school children on free school meals: 1. Birmingham, Ladywood (8943) 2. Birmingham, Hodge Hill (7492) 3. Bethnal Green and Bow (7014) 4. Poplar and Limehouse (6954) 5. Blackley and Broughton (6421)

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

4 years

More than 6 out of 10 Brits think Australia is more important in the world than India.

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Joe Twyman

4 years

Should Boris Johnson have to take part in the BBC interview with @afneil ? A majority of the British public thinks so, including over a third of Conservative supporters.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

6 years

Just a quick reminder that if you're asking 'Why did people vote for Trump or Brexit?', the main reason is not 'Cambridge Analytica'. It is certainly not the only reason either. It may even turn out to be only be a very, very small reason in a tiny number of cases.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

5 years

This article from @robfordmancs is very good on why, right now, any prediction of the next election result that you might have seen is almost certainly nothing more than simplistic or politically motivated speculation. Possibly both.

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With such volatile voters, all poll bets are off for a snap election

There is no guarantee for any party of how a ‘cold snap’ UK election could go

www.theguardian.com

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

5 years

No sleeps until Christmas!

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

6 years

I have been at YouGov since the very beginning, from starting as director of polling to heading up the political research team. However, after five general elections, plus plenty of party leadership contests, referenda(ums) and nearly 18 years I have taken the decision to resign.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

6 years

An analysis of @ShippersUnbound 's excellent books illustrates just how British politics has changed since the #Brexit referendum. Noticeable increase in both the FPP Score (up 68%) and CPP score (up 190%).

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

2 years

At 57%, the size of victory for Truss is the smallest in the history of Conservative leadership contests that went to a membership vote.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

5 years

This is either an amazing true story or the plot for the next Richard Curtis movie. Perhaps both.

@sixthformpoet

sixthformpoet

5 years

ONE My dad died. Classic start to a funny story. He was buried in a small village in Sussex. I was really close to my dad so I visited his grave a lot. I still do. [DON’T WORRY, IT GETS FUNNIER.]

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Joe Twyman

5 years

1. Conservative Brexit rebels deselected from next election. 2. Deselected MPs run in their constituencies as independents (or even for other parties). 3. Conservative election vote split between official candidate and former candidate. 4. Er...... Profit?

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

7 years

This has been the sixth General Election I have worked on. One piece of advice I would offer to others? NEVER promise to eat inedible items.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

2 years

* People who are unlikely to vote for me should be given limited pay rises this year in order to protect people who are far more likely to vote for me from inflation, a nakedly pragmatic MP has said.

@Telegraph

The Telegraph

2 years

🔴 Workers should be given limited pay rises this year in order to protect pensioners from inflation, a Tory MP has said

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

4 years

This is quite simply an embarrassment and everyone involved should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves.

@Daily_Express

Daily Express

4 years

'Trump landslide!' Poll backs US President to defy polls and return to White House

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

7 years

#Labour 's manifesto pledges on rent and income tax were the most popular that we tested - both received support from a majority. #GE2017

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

4 years

THREAD: The ten constituencies in England with the largest absolute number of school children on free school meals: 1. Birmingham, Ladywood (8943) 2. Birmingham, Hodge Hill (7492) 3. Bethnal Green and Bow (7014) 4. Poplar and Limehouse (6954) 5. Blackley and Broughton (6421)

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

3 years

If you too don't know understand the difference between meaningless twitter polls and correctly sampled surveys, then the British Polling Council has written a guide for journalists (or anyone else) to get a better understanding of how polling works.

@MartinDaubney

Martin Daubney 🇬🇧

3 years

FINAL RESULTS: Some 80% of 15.4K polled want to end the COVID lockdown now That's almost the direct opposite of the government/ @YouGov polls So what's the truth? 🤔

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

2 years

🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead at thirteen points in latest results from Deltapoll for the Daily Mirror. Con 31% (-) Lab 44% (+1) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Other 13% (-2) Fieldwork: 26-30 August 2022 Sample: 1,600 GB adults (Changes from 19-22 August 2022)

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

5 years

I think Rory Stewart has done an excellent job of making himself the go to voice for the media when it comes to a Conservative opposing No Deal Brexit. That could place him in an extremely good position longer term / next time around, depending on how Brexit actually turns out.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

6 months

A May election now feels more likely to me than it did a couple of hours ago.

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@JoeTwyman

Joe Twyman

3 years

And now just two days later, the BBC publish this article featuring another absolute shocker. Must try harder.

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