One of my favourite Krakow traditions is the “szopka” competition - each year cracovians of all ages construct elaborate nativity scenes. The best are put on display in the city museum
The mismatch between the ideal of 100,000 jolly patriots marching through verdant English countryside and the reality of a few hundred old men stomping miserably through mud is a really on point Brexit metaphor.
Seeing as the Bring Back Boris Barmy Army is now on the march, time for a little public service thread on Johnson's electoral appeal in 2019 and popularity since. Tl;dr - he wasn't popular then, and he *certainly* isn't now 1/?
Good piece of advice from the chief advisor to govt on epidemic modelling just now on Newsnight: don’t behave as if you’re trying to avoid getting the virus, behave as far as possible as if you *already have it* and are trying to stop others from getting it.
In an odd coincidence, I've been reading Kwasi Kwarteng's "Ghosts of Empire" (which is really good, highly recommended). One of the repeated themes is the dangers of handing massive discretionary power to inexperienced, out of touch graduates of grand public schools
The true figure is not 90%. It is 10% (thread with data and sources in next tweet). This is the kind of scaremongering campaign the BNP used to run back when Goodwin studied them.
“Do what’s in the best interests of your family what happens to everyone else is secondary” says Dan Hodges on national radio, defending Cummings. Illustrating exactly how this story has the potential damage adherence to isolation rules going forward.
This is rapidly becoming one of the more pernicious zombie myths regarding immigration. Recent arrivals to Britain *cannot* claim housing benefits or social housing (except asylum seekers whose claims have been accepted.
“Foreign born” stat imcludes - and is mostly driven by -…
Is it right that some recent arrivals to the UK have the same eligibility to apply for housing benefits as people who have lived here all their lives?
A higher proportion of the foreign-born population live in subsidised social housing than the UK-born population.
I believe PM has just in one half hour of PMQs stated that there will be:
1. No hard border between NI and Ireland
2. No hard border between NI & UK
3. No customs union between UK & EU
But it is impossible to have all of 1,2,&3.
No wonder the EU get frustrated with us.
BBC should refuse and insist on Neil, empty chairing if necessary. We really need something like debates commission to oversee and properly regulate this kind of set piece campaign event
💥Tin hats on over at BBC.
Bit a row over in W1A coming.
Understand the Tories have offered up the Prime Minister for an interrogation by the BBC.
...on Andrew Marr's show this Sunday.
So the idea of Bring Back Boris has only a few small flaws: He isn't popular. He never was. He can't govern. He can't unify. Scandal & chaos follows him wherever he goes. And enough Con MPs know all of this to leave him unable to govern from day 1.
Revealing that Downing St strategists thought a bungled announcement to cancel HS2, dragged out over days, then announced in the city set to lose out most, would generate a positive public reaction
No 10 said to be 'bruised' that conference, particularly HS2, did not shift dial
Tory MPs concerned King's Speech & Autumn Statement will underwhelm
Economic constraints will severely limit room for manoeuvre in Autumn Statement
While this topic obviously stirs deep passions, it is nonetheless remarkable that we could be looking at multiple front bench resignations over what form of words a party not in government uses about a conflict not involving Britain, in a statement which will be ignored by all…
Shadow Home Office minister Naz Shah tells the Commons she will defy the Labour whip and vote for the SNP amendment for a ceasefire in Gaza.
"Despite all the risk to our personal positions we must do what it is right," she says.
Here's a little story about the
@DVLAgovuk
- the organisation in charge of managing the legal registration of cars. To register a car to the DVLA, all you need to do is fill in a form saying you live at an address. No proof is required 1/?
What do we call it in other countries when a minister from the governing party threatens the national broadcaster with funding cuts for criticising the national leader?
Nadine Dorries has privately expressed her fury at the BBC’s Nick Robinson after he told the prime minister to “stop talking” during a tense interview
The culture secretary has told allies: “Nick Robinson has cost the BBC a lot of money.”
Denial is an understandable reaction to shock but it is still depressing to see many Labour supporters reacting to their party's worst defeat since 1935 by portraying the voters who rejected them as stupid or bigoted. Insulting voters is no route to recovery
A v strange claim to make when we have just had several days of unambiguously radical right rhetoric being rolled out on prime time TV by sitting cabinet ministers, and the current PM saying he would welcome the most prominent radical right politician in Britain into his party.
Isabel Oakshott journalistic ethics:
Masses of emails linking leading Brexit campaigners to Russia: "No need to publish yet,we need to see these things in context"
Single anonymous source claims Cameron snagged a pig's head decades ago:
"This must be published immediately!"
If you wanted to be honest with people about a complex problem, maybe endless repetition of a simplistic, unachievable three word slogan wasn’t the best way to frame things?
.
@RishiSunak
is unable to confirm whether he will be able to 'stop by the boats' by the next general election
'I want it to be done as soon as possible but I also want to be honest with people that it is a complex problem,' he says
Boris backers imagine that Johnson can turn this around. But you can't unburn toast. Here are Johnson's final ratings with YouGov on different characteristics:
Competence: -43
Trustworthiness: -65
Decisiveness: -35
Strength: -24
Likeability: -13
I tell my graduate students not to trust data from an unrepresentative non-random sample of 30 with a tiny response rate (5%), an unreliable measure (self-reported hours) and where response bias is likely (workaholics more likely to participate, and more likely to exaggerate)
I tell my graduate students and post-docs that if they’re working 60 hours per week, they’re working less than the full professors, and less than their peers.
Today's random survey fact: When asked what was the most important issue facing the country, 11 out of 3,075 respondents to the 2010 British Election Study named "Britain's relations with Europe". 0.4% of the total sample.
The cost-benefit on "shutting things with a vaccine literally being rolled out" is not the same as the cost-benefit on "shutting things with no idea when a vaccine will come, if ever." Can we please stop pretending the policy debate now is the same as then?
Here is a word cloud of descriptions of Boris Johnson from
@jamesjohnson252
polling in April 2022 - just 6 months ago. People imagining these impressions have somehow disappeared or been reversed are deluding themselves.
David Cameron's successful efforts to get talented young ethnic minority candidates selected for safe Conservative seats may end up being one of his most consequential legacies
I knew Brexit debate would get ugly when reality started to bite. I didn't think it would get "shadowy Jews are pulling the strings says former PM adviser" ugly. Disgraceful of Telegraph and Nick Timothy to weaponise the far right's favourite conspiracy theory.
May to announce her new Brexit secretary after 9am. One Brexiteer source reckons Grayling or Fox - they have been the most loyal. Gove possible too; but trickier to handle
I don't think referring to your opponents' victory in a free and fair election as a "coup" is remotely helpful to anything.
Losers' consent is a vital principle for democratic stability. We only have to look across the Atlantic to see what happens when it is lost.
Jeremy Corbyn's resistance to calling out anti-semitism a few years ago looked to be rooted in a deep resistance to admitting such prejudice against Jews existed among some of his most passionate supporters on the radical left, even when the evidence for this was very clear.…
This is absolute nonsense Kemi and you know it.
I met you alongside other colleagues over a year and a half ago and the definition was explained to you in detail - you were asked to detail your concerns / any objections and the basis of it .
You DID NOT follow up.
Instead all…
Claiming only people born in Britain count as British is far right ethnic nationalism. Goodwin now makes this claim over and over again, day in and day out.
'Fundamentally, British people need to be housed first.'
@GoodwinMJ
says 'close to half of all social housing in London goes to households who are headed by somebody who is not born in Britain'.
🔓 Become a GB News Member:
What an ugly and ignorant view, to assume that someone's exam results at 16 should be a final judgement on their intelligence and worth for life.
Someone needs a better education here, and it isn't Angela Rayner.
Regardless of the merits of this individual case, we should all be rather worried by a government claiming the power to unilaterally revoke citizenship rights.
This is a frankly bonkers stance from a public opinion perspective - voters have incredibly positive views of migrant NHS workers. For every voter favouring this stance there are four voters taking the opposite view
Boris Johnson was *not* popular in 2019. He was less popular at every point of the campaign than Theresa May was in the 2017 campaign (see graph). He had the good fortune to run with two strong fair winds - a toxic opponent (Corbyn) and a winning issue (Brexit). Both gone now.
This *will* mean Dutch, German, Polish,Spanish born pensioners being thrown out of their homes, denied healthcare, deported in the middle of the night after decades living here. That *will happen* 5 yrs from now unless there is fundamental reform of Hostile Environment policies.
BREAKING:
Secretary of State
@BrandonLewis
confirms that EU citizens in UK WILL be subject to full immigration enforcement and liable to removal if they miss Settled Status deadline in exclusive Interview with
@StefanieBolzen
in Germany's
@welt
1/
In more depressing but not surprising news, that slogan is back yet again. Obstinate refusal to consider the offence it causes isn’t really helping the marchers’ cause.
Sing along if you know the song:
A majority for Leave in a Labour seat doesn't mean a majority of Labour voters in that seat supported Leave.
In nearly all cases, a majority of the Lab support in Lab Leave seats came from Remain voters.
Incredible. Less than 100 days from the no deal cliff edge and people who were recently in Cabinet either don’t understand what it means, or do understand but are happy to lie about it
Firstly, as many are pointing out, foundation courses are not same thing as standard courses. This is not an apples for apples comparison.
Secondly, if anyone imagines cutting overseas student intakes wld free up spaces for UK students, they don't understand uni finances at all
My middle son is hoping to study economics at uni from September - this makes my blood boil: Cashfor courses: top universities recruit foreign students on low grades
Warning signs...
Roman bust profile pic
Angry dog profile pic
Political hashtag in profile name
Random string of numbers in twitter handle
"Classical liberal"
Profile boasts about who's blocked them
Only tweets are angry replies to other ppl
Aaron Bastani
This was predictable, and predicted, by many who urged govt to act sooner in November/December. Great successes in 2021 on vaccine rollout should not blind us to the huge policy failure which immediately preceded it - a policy failure which cost thousands of lives.
Boris Johnson was also *not popular at all* for most of the last year of his premiership. His lowest ebb was a net rating of -46 with MORI, the 6th worst ever & only 5 points better than Truss's worst rating. This period ended all of three months ago!
Succinctly but wrongly. Most Labour voters in nearly every seat, including John Mann’s, are Remain voters and more Labour voters everywhere are middle class than working class and have been for a while
“Most Labour Party members are middle-class Remainers. Most Labour voters are working-class Leavers.”
Problem succinctly put by
@JohnMannMP
@BBCNewsnight
“What if we made up a job that’s got all the stuff Suella rants about in the title but it’s got no power or portfolio so the holder can’t actually *do* anything stupid or harmful. A sort of minister for anti-woke hot air?”
Esther McVey will be minister without portfolio within the Cabinet Office. She will attend cabinet though won't be a full cabinet member. Her role will be to represent Rishi Sunak's government on TV and radio as much as possible, and to speak what he sees as "common sense" on all…
I do think the change in political tone and urgency we are going to see on this next year will be abrupt. If Lab win a majority we go from a Con govt whose base are largely insulated from housing crisis to a Lab govt whose base is drawn from those hit hardest. Massive shift in…
NEW: we don’t reflect enough on how severe the housing crisis is, and how it has completely broken the promise society made to young adults.
The situation is especially severe in the UK, where the last time house prices were this unaffordable was in ... 1876.
I think Today producers, editors and presenters have some serious questions to answer about why they have today invited a discredited scientist with a repeated track record of making falsely dismissive claims on COVID threat to offer her views to the nation this morning
Update: the answer is no, no reflection from Gupta on why she’s been so wrong. She just doubled down in on
@BBCr4today
this morning, reasserting unscientific beliefs about herd immunity & questioning the infectiousness of new variant despite the figures.
Philip Hammond's local association are desperate to shut down the huge deselection campaign we have going on in his constituency by reselecting him on the sly - and guess what? The reselection meeting on Monday isn't open to members... How democratic!
@CCHQPress
@PhilipHammondUK
Deputy PM Oliver Dowden asked by
@SkyNews
if Suella Braverman's comments that Britain is being taken over by an "islamist mob” were acceptable.
"I don't believe the language used by Suella Braverman has crossed the line, where she should apologise for it, no I don't."
This was a bit too lazy and glib on my part. This subject deserves more careful, clear explanation on what's wrong and why here. So that's what I'm going to do here 1/?
I knew Brexit debate would get ugly when reality started to bite. I didn't think it would get "shadowy Jews are pulling the strings says former PM adviser" ugly. Disgraceful of Telegraph and Nick Timothy to weaponise the far right's favourite conspiracy theory.
This claim re: trust in the BBC bothered me a bit - the decline seemed implausibly large and, to the extent there has been a decline in trust, this seemed unlikely to be a BBC story.
In only twenty years trust in the BBC has crashed from 80% to 44%. I'd hazard a guess that it is things like this -BBC journalists included in openly partisan takes- that plays a role ...
This projection has pro-EU liberals and Greens gaining as many seats this month as anti-EU radical right nationalists. One of these trends is getting constant media attention. The other, in my experience, is barely covered at all. Why is this? Bad news bias? Power of narratives?
Neat Polity data viz est. the outcome of the EU elections based on most recent polls. Basically, a pox on the mainstream parties but gains for the Greens/ALDE AND authoritarian-populists.
Another sleeper story in the English locals results is Con decline and LD/Lab advance in "blue wall" constituencies which voted Remain in 2016 but returned Con MPs in 2019.
Nothing demonstrates a commitment to expunging sleaze and scandal like picking the girlfriend of a disgraced MP as your candidate to replace him in a by-election triggered by Parliamentary sanctioning of his behaviour
The Conservatives have chosen Helen Harrison for the Wellingborough byelection. She had the support of outgoing MP Peter Bone,her partner. Bone is now unlikely to stand as an independent candidate, having indicated he may do so if Harrison was not selected
"Every criticism of a Jew" isn't antisemitism. Portraying George Soros as a shadowy puppetmaster - a trope employed by *every far right movement in Europe and the US*, building on a *long established antisemitic trope of shadowy Jewish puppetmasters* IS antisemitism. Not hard.
As for scandals, where to start? Partygate, Pincher, Paterson, Barnard Castle, Lebedev and much, much more. He is still under investigation by the Commons Privileges Committee, who could yet recommend suspending him from the house *next month*.
We literally are a "papers, please" society - the whole and explicit point of the "Hostile Environment" policies introduced by this government's predecessors, and still in force, is to make a wide range of service providers demand papers of every not-citizen resident here.
Conservative MP Marcus Fysh who is opposing vaccine passports this morning on BBC "we are not a 'papers please' society"
"This is not Nazi Germany," he says
"It's the thin end of an authoritarian wedge"
“Immediate and massive action” would mean huge cuts to one or more of the following groups, who drive most of the inflows:
Foreign students whose fees most universities rely on
Migrant workers in the NHS and social care
High skilled workers in other sectors
Here's net migration since 1947.
In every election since 1992 we have promised to reduce migration. Today's extraordinary numbers mean the PM must now take immediate and massive action to do that to do just that.
🗣 "We know you who you are, Starmer: you are a lawyer, not a lance corporal. Stop trying to pretend you know one end of a bazooka from another," writes
@RossjournoClark
.
Read more here ⬇️
People seem to be forgetting there are a lot less Labour Leave votes in Labour Leave seats now than in 2016 because a lot of them switched to Cons in 2017. So BXP candidates in Lab Leave seats will usually take more votes from Cons (mostly Leave) than Lab (mostly Remain)
One of the most depressing things about the post-Brexit political debate has been the total ignorance so many Brexiteers have about Northern Ireland, and in particular why "the will of a narrow majority must be respected without compromise" is such a dangerous stance there.
If this is what “partisan journalism” looks like then I’m all for it. Public sector broadcasters who hold incumbent governments to account are an asset to democracy. When such broadcasters kowtow to governing elites they become a tool or corruption and oppression.
There's a small but significant number of students who have not been helped at all by the govt u-turn.
They've neither been upgraded, or downgraded. Because they have no grade and now, a v uncertain future.
They're the external exam candidates. For example, Ferdaus.
(Thread)
A very significant development. With Unite also calling for electoral reform, and Labour's membership also strongly in favour of it, the chances of Labour going into the next election committed to fundamental reform of the electoral system are the highest in a long time
Breaking news - Unison, one of the UKs largest and most powerful unions, has just voted, today, to support Proportional Representation. This is MASSIVE and means that, her majesty's opposition will almost certainly have to commit to PR at the conference in Sept this year.
One of the most damaging zombie beliefs in the whole politics of Brexit debate is the "Lab needs to win/hold Leave seats and therefore needs to win/hold Leave votes". The second does *not* follow from the first.
I've made this prediction before and I'll repeat it now:
If we end up with no deal, public support for no deal will fall by double digits within a month or two. Support for Cons & PM will drop substantially too. Voters who welcome the idea of no deal won't welcome reality.
This is horrific. A Kafkaesque tale where everyone involved can see data protection rules but no one can see a desperate son trying to trace and help his stricken mother.
A few days ago I found out my 86yr old mum with dementia had had a fall & been admitted to hospital
I didn’t know which hospital so had to cold call the ones in the area
No luck
I thought this can’t be so called them all again
Fortunately I got a different receptionist at one….
The Johnson government was characterised from start to finish by chaos, scandal, self-inflicted blunders, and screeching U-turns repeatedly humiliating ministers who defended unpopular lines only to see them abandoned hours later. Again, this all happened only a few months ago.
Lab MPs like this are as illogical and destructive as the ERG.
Spring this year: "I want Brexit, but I won't vote for May's deal because it is too damaging"
Now: "I want Brexit and will vote for the most damaging of all possible Brexits because reasons".
Labour MP Sarah Champion on
#Brexit
without a deal
“If it came to it, I would take no deal, if that meant we could leave, because we have to leave”
#politicslive
I think this misunderstands the reasons for Johnson’s ouster. Partygate was both proxinate cause but more importantly symptom and illustration of a deeper problem - a PM who ignored all rules, who could not be trusted and whose behaviour towards colleagues and everyone else over…
Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.
I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.
Given what a disaster appointments systems are this could go down as one of the all time great policy blunders. Millions of poor and unwell elderly receiving fixed penalty notices for appointments they were never told about or reminders sent to ancient & wrong addresses/phone nos
A strangely unbalanced article. Seems to imply there is no evidence of switching from Con to Lab - but there is lots of evidence for this and it is easily available! Might be useful to speak to public opinion researchers as well as Conservative sources?
some Tory MPs believe Johnson may receive a temporary reprieve from an unlikely source: the Kremlin. “If you look at what’s happening in Ukraine, I don’t think now’s the time for a leadership contest,” said one Tory MP
OK, so that's the polling, how about his performance in actual elections. He's a proven winner, right? Erm...
There were 5 contested by-elex after"partygate" scandals. Averaging Con fall across all 5 was -17.3%
Average Con fall across 3 Con-Lab or Lab-Con contests was -11.2%
This is pretty significant - relaxation among "Leave" voters about "no deal" is driven by super-relaxed attitudes among economically secure leavers. Struggling Leave voters are a lot more worried about what No Deal will mean.
But, among Leave Voters, support for No Deal is driven by those most likely to weather any economic downturn. Financially struggling Leave voters are MUCH MORE worried… it's not the "left behind" who really want No Deal... 3/6
Good news, bad news on this front.
Good news: the ID checking app worked fine
Bad news: “We need more evidence”.
My mum’s been here over 40 years, most of them working in the NHS. She draws two NHS pensions (second widows pension for my dad who was also nhs) 1/2
On my way down to London to help my mum (Dutch citizen but here since the mid-1970s) with the EU citizens registration process. Very much hoping the app and website outages reported yesterday are now over. Fingers crossed...
We were told we were seeing the rate of infection accelerating exponentially. But again, what does this graph actually show has been happening for most age groups.
The BBC is wrong about this I think. Social norms are a powerful force for good in society but they rely on figures of authority calling out and stigmatising unacceptable speech and acts. Trump's statement was, beyond doubt, racist. The BBC could, and should, call it so.
The Polish government is at the end of its term and it is completely standard to end legislative activity for an election campaign. This is an utterly disingenuous comparison as you must know.
In Poland to discuss a deal minus the backstop so we can deliver Brexit on 31st Oct. Polish government has prorogued its Parliament for a General Election on 13th Oct. Remain MPs in UK surprisingly quiet about this prorogation.
This was the guy who hired the guy - Lee Atwater - who convinced millions of white Americans that his 1988 opponent was going to release black rapists in their neighbourhoods.
Polite concessions are nice but let’s not overstate the grace of past times.
You don’t get to fly that flag with pride until you open our doors to those fleeing the butcher of Moscow. Ukraine’s citizens need safe refuge not gestures. Your inaction shames us all.
Johnson supporters may have forgotten all this, but voters and more critical MPs have not. Much of it happened this year, after all. We are already seeing MPs pledge to resign the whip and/or trigger by-elex rather than serve under a Johnson Lazarus administration
Tory commentators: Momentum are angry fanatics aggressively pursuing anyone who dares deviate from their ideological doctrine
Also Tory commentators: DESELECT BREXIT SPLITTERS
Great column today by
@stephenkb
on why, despite all of this, Johnson may well make the ballot on Monday (and may well win a vote with members). If he does, I suspect buyer's regret won't be long in coming (nor will internal opposition):
"Muslims make up a majority in more than 30 constituencies" - that seemed off to me so I checked. Census 2021 data is easily available. This is incorrect. Muslims were a majority of the 2021 resident population in 3 constituencies, not 30.
This is disturbing. I find it highly unlikely the majority of UCU members share the STW view of Ukraine conflict. Unrepresentative hard left activists hijacking the union agenda once again. I find this code abhorrent, is hard to remain in a union which would endorse it.
We think UCU members should be outraged that the STW motion, calling in a few words with little explanation for an end to UK arming Ukraine, was passed. We look forward to working with the growing network of pro-Ukraine UCU members to push back, while organising active solidarity
Pretty revealing that when the Society of Editors asked themselves "who do we want to get to defend us on broadcast re: this sensitive matter?" the answer they came up with was "shouty middle aged man who talks over female presenters".