Thanks to
@ForeignAffairs
for encouraging this piece from me
@CrisisGroup
. While many Western policymakers know that you can't lump together three continents under a single two-word phrase, some do sometimes flatten the world in exactly this way.
Urgent action needed on
#Ethiopia
’s
#Tigray
war: after its meeting today, 21 October,
@CrisisGroup
calls on the
#UNSC
to issue a statement reflecting the perilous circumstances, as has been underscored by UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered widespread condemnation across the globe.
In Africa, most governments have since taken a cautious approach as they navigate a complex balancing act, a fact lost in some analysis of the war.
Thoughts on the view from the continent 🧵
UN Security Council to meet on Thursday behind closed doors to discuss
#Ethiopia
's
#Tigray
region. Top concern is vital need to secure more humanitarian access.
To
@CrisisGroup
supporters: under my leadership, everything we do will remain focused on this singular mission 👉stopping people from dying and suffering due to war. via
@crisisgroup
The war in Ukraine is the gravest immediate peril to international peace & security for decades.
Its global impact is already widely felt, from Venezuela to Iran. This is only the beginning.
Ahead of an upcoming
@CrisisGroup
statement, a few thoughts on why we should all care:
Seven African leaders were toppled by their militaries in the last three years.
In this
@ForeignAffairs
essay with
@mutigam
, we outline the deeper context in which these coups are emerging and why they have stirred so much anxiety.
Thread 1/11
.
Delivery of desperately needed humanitarian aid is crucial for the population of
#Tigray
, who have not received any form of such aid since December.
The federal government's declaration is welcome - now this promise must be translated into action!
So glad that we no longer have to continue this most painful countdown. Michael is coming home and with Michael Spavor. There are not enough words to express the joy of
@CrisisGroup
family. We join the families of both Michaels in this AMAZING news.
Today is 1020 days since our colleague Michael Kovrig was arbitrarily jailed by China.
His sole offence was to be a Canadian in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Every day his grit and character in the face of injustice inspire us.
#FreeMichaelKovrig
#UNSC
can use it’s High-Level Open Debate on Conflict and Food Security this Thursday, 11 March, to offer clear and practical steps to help address the current crises in
#Yemen
and
#Ethiopia
, where ongoing violence is driving severe food insecurity.
1/ My colleagues Ali Vaez and Dina Esfandiary are, once again, the targets of baseless attacks and personal abuse for their work on Iran.
As President of
@CrisisGroup
, I stand behind our mandate to engage all sides in a conflict and find peaceful solutions.
The day we have been waiting for 1,020 days has finally arrived. Michael Kovrig is free. To Beijing: We welcome this most just decision. Ottawa: Thank you for your steadfast support for our colleague. Washington: Thank you for your willingness to support an ally & our colleague.
Keri Russell will star in & exec produce The Diplomat, an 8-ep political thriller where she'll play a career diplomat who lands a high-profile job she's unsuited for in the midst of an international crisis, creating tectonic implications for her marriage and her political future.
Very pleased to announce
@CrisisGroup
@mutigam
will succeed me as Africa Program Director & will work with
@PaulineBax1
@RinaldoD1
to take our work to even greater heights. Thanks to Africa Program colleagues for our wonderful years; looking forward to championing your good work.
In partnership with
@ForeignPolicy
@CrisisGroup
's 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2022 notes that battle deaths may be down, but regional wars continue to rage as great-power confrontations loom, from
#Ukraine
to
#Taiwan
, amid declining U.S. influence
@atwoodr
Honoured to be profiled in this
@BritishVogue
piece on women working to end deadly conflicts.
Thank you
@charlottehelenb
for capturing so vividly the challenges we face & why we must always keep going!
Regardless of where you stand, this grave statistic from
@save_children
on children killed is precisely why
@CrisisGroup
called early on for a ceasefire for
#Gaza
- to avert further deaths against the most innocent.
3,195 children killed in
#Gaza
in just three weeks has surpassed the annual number of children killed across the world's conflict zones since 2019. We are calling for an immediate ceasefire.
With famine conditions spreading [in
#Ethiopia
's
#Tigray
region], continued international pressure on Abiy’s government is essential. via
@crisisgroup
Cutting aid to
@UNRWA
is not only short-sighted, it would also be unconscionable given the humanitarian emergency in Gaza.
Men, women, and children in Gaza are suffering enough without being further punished due to the misdeeds of a handful of UNRWA staff.
Last September, we published a report emphasizing the importance of fully funding
@UNRWA
.
Donors should realise that cleaning up after UNRWA collapses would be far more costly than closing the financial gap.
I am so grateful to
@OpenSociety
for their continued support.
Today, record numbers of people are starving, displaced or silenced due to war.
This transformative grant will help
@CrisisGroup
develop innovative ways to prevent & resolve deadly conflict.
Another factor is that, seen from Africa, the Ukraine conflict is happening far away, and many African leaders feel that the crisis gets a disproportionate amount of attention simply because it’s unfolding in Europe.
Excited to soon welcome
@BasharatPeer
as deputy director of
@CrisisGroup
's Future of Conflict program. Having worked with him when he was at NYTimes World Opinion, I know his sharp pen and searching mind will expand our horizons!
This conflict is not more important because it is in Europe.
It is important because it raises the risk of direct confrontation between nuclear-armed powers and ruptures crucial cooperation between the West and Russia.
Many African governments have grown adept at juggling relations with the West, China, Russia and other powers.
In most cases they can't afford to side with just one partner and don't want to be forced to choose.
This does not mean they agree with what's happening in Ukraine.
Understanding African positions while making the case that all states benefit from respect for
@UN
rules against the violent remaking of borders, plus doing whatever possible to mitigate the war’s economic reverberations, is the best way to change minds on the continent.
The way Ukrainian refugees have been welcomed by the EU starkly contrasts with the treatment of Africans fleeing conflict, feeding into this narrative of double standards, as
@M_Philani
pointed out on The Horn podcast.
Before talking about “neutral Africa”, it’s important to remember that a majority of African countries (28/54) voted in favour of the UN resolution against Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Multilateral bodies like the AU and ECOWAS also quickly condemned Russia’s actions.
Some also sense an element of double standards - the U.S. went ahead with its invasion of Iraq despite worldwide protests, and countries in the Sahel are still suffering the consequences of NATO's intervention in Libya.
Thank you for the kind words President
@MBuhari
, for myself, and for
@crisisgroup
. I'm looking forward to working towards a more stable world.
@FemAdesina
Extremely concerned by
@WFP
's suspension of food aid in South Sudan.
This is tragic for a country already reeling from the worst effects of climate change & its impact on security.
Severe droughts, flooding, displacement and violence, now compounded by alarming food insecurity.
Feeling rather blessed 🙏🏽 Imagine waking up everyday to 100+ super colleagues committed to this: to prevent, resolve & mitigate deadly conflict around the world by informing & influencing the perceptions & actions of policymakers & key conflict actors.
@CrisisGroup
For
@CrisisGroup
the world’s response to the war in
#Tigray
has been lacklustre, despite the enormous death toll and the potential for worsening regional destabilisation. The risk of large-scale attacks on civilians is high.
Addis Ababa urgently needs to accept, as already suggested by both the AU and EU, a national dialogue with all relevant political actors. The alternative could be a return to the long-running conflicts of the past that ruined millions of lives.
Ceasefire necessary between Ethiopia federal authority & Tigray leaders not just to steady country’s troubled transition but for regional stability; clash is no longer just about
#Ethiopia
but entire Horn of Africa.
@CrisisGroup
For many of the 17 African abstentions (excluding the 8 that did not vote and Eritrea, who voted against), their stance reflects less a pro-Russia stance than a reluctance to uncritically support what many see as a Western position over Ukraine.
Finally, every death, every casualty, every displaced person during war is a tragedy no matter where it takes place, and extraordinary efforts to help Ukrainian refugees show how Western governments can better welcome those fleeing conflict elsewhere.
@DavidOlusoga
Here’s an important line: “The government has been quick to point to the ethnic diversity of the commission. What is lacking here is not ethnic diversity but diversity of opinion.” Thank you!
Good opportunity for
@CrisisGroup
to discuss a range of issues with
@antonioguterres
; thank you for your kind words about the impact and difference our work is making.
Criticism of African leaders’ cautious approach ignores a long history of non-alignment on the continent since the Cold War and the decisive rejection of bloc politics among newly independent African nations.
Also, in some countries, the legacy of Soviet support for liberation struggles runs deep.
In South Africa, leaders of the ruling ANC still recall the Kremlin’s support in their anti-apartheid struggle & ties remain strong.
Night falls in Europe, our
@CrisisGroup
US team take over, here's a line in our statement coming out that we prayed not to write: As tanks roll over European borders for the first time in decades it is tempting to look somewhere for hope. Today, sadly, that is in short supply.
This era of major-power divisions is taking a serious toll on the United Nations’ ability to meet international peace and security challenges.
We
@CrisisGroup
examine these and help world leaders consider new strategies for the organisation: 1/6
Meanwhile the
#Sahel
:
#Mali
2 coups in 9 months; now
#BurkinaFaso
2 coups in 9 months. Regional deterioration is alarming. Real sense of urgency needed but as things stand no political or social force or external actor seems capable of preventing a crumbling state of affairs
In
#Sudan
, perhaps today’s worst war in sheer numbers of people killed and displaced: Up to 12,000 Sudanese have been killed in the fighting, while 8 million are displaced, and 19 million children are out of school. Widespread hunger looms.
@crisisgroup
As 2023 closes, a worrying trend is the pervasiveness of disinformation and the polarisation of policy debates.
We
@CrisisGroup
see this in the conflicts we cover, and at times, have all too direct experience with it being used against our work and staff.
Many conflicts can be avoided by tackling issues before they degenerate. But when wars break out, rules must be followed.
From
@CrisisGroup
: thank you
@ICRC
for being the guardian of international humanitarian law.
We’ve received thousands of questions on the Geneva Conventions.
So, we’re going to break down the rules of war you need to know right now.
All states have signed these – and are legally obligated to follow them.
Thread 👇
Finally, China's stance in this war will be pivotal on the continent.
Many African countries have to balance ties to Beijing, their biggest trading partner, and their relationship to the West.
Sudan’s military has turned its back on the Sudanese people following its Oct 2021 coup.
Today I brief the U.S. Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee on how the U.S. can help re-rail the civilian-led transition.
Livestream starts at 10am EST // 17 CAT
Western observers have also underestimated the reach of Russian disinformation in the Global South.
My colleague
@ElissaJobson
reminds us that the Kremlin has “spent time building networks with which to channel their propaganda.”
How can the
#EU
play a positive role for
#peace
?
This was the focus of my briefing to the EU institutions and its 27 member states in the EU Political and Security Committee this morning.
Jihadist violence in the
#Sahel
can't be addressed by focusing on a military response, whether the boots are French or Russian.
Addressing the root causes, which are political, economic and communal, should be central to any stabilisation strategy.
The continent is already suffering from rising commodity costs.
E.g. economic turmoil & erratic rains in Sudan are driving up prices & reducing harvests.
“A halt to foreign assistance & the war in Ukraine [puts] food supplies at further risk”.
Michael is 49 today, sadly his 3rd birthday in prison in China rather than with his family for no other crime than being a Canadian citizen. This is no way to spend your birthday; China’s action against our
@CrisisGroup
colleague is a form of hostage diplomacy
#FreeMichaelKovrig
I have witnessed Ukraine transform from a collapsing part of the Soviet Union to a liberal democracy and an open society. It has faced countless acts of Russian aggression, but has persisted.
In Ethiopia UNSC should press
#Eritrea
to end its involvement & withdraw its troops. It should call for cessation of hostilities to facilitate necessary expansion of aid. Listen to
@alanboswell
& Alex de Waal on
#Tigray
's grim humanitarian situation
I am deeply saddened to learn of the passing of Martti Ahtisaari, a true master of peace mediation.
Martti left an indelible mark at
@CrisisGroup
as one of its first Chairs and as Chairman Emeritus.
He will be sorely missed.
While the truce between the federal government in
#Ethiopia
and
#Tigray
is desperately needed,
@AlanBoswell
says it's too early to tell how committed the parties are to the truce. More on Alan’s thoughts on the truce in his 🧵 below ↓ [4/6]
Some more thoughts here on
#Ethiopia
’s truce.
First of all, what is most important now is that the parties actually stop fighting on the ground. If they don’t, then much of the rest of this below is moot for now.
The smart and hugely talented Kenyan policy analyst and researcher Hafsa Maalim
@ma3lim_h
will be at the prestigious Munich Security Conference representing the voice of young African leaders.
Well-deserved.
The coup attempt in
#GuineaBissau
yesterday came weeks after the military takeover in Burkina Faso and follows last year’s coups in Chad, Guinea, Sudan and Mali.
What drives these more frequent power grabs? The answer is:
it is complicated 🧵
Lovely news from
@CrisisGroup
: Very pleased to announce that our fabulous Renata Segura
@renaticas
is going to be our new Program Director for Latin America taking over from our wonderful Ivan Briscoe
@itbriscoe
who’s becoming Senior Director for Policy.
Upwards they go…✨💫
One year ago today
#Myanmar
’s military removed Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected government in a coup.
Read
@rshorsey
on the situation today and why a protracted and increasingly violent confrontation appears inevitable.
#MyanmarCoup
For
#IWD2024
, I’m pleased to share a list of books, articles and podcasts that shed light on women’s roles in leadership, peacekeeping, conflict and more.
We’ve come a long way – yet we must keep pushing every day to build a more equal world:
1/
African Union Chair
@Macky_Sall
will visit Russia to meet with Vladimir Putin tomorrow.
He has an important chance to communicate the
@_AfricanUnion
's concerns about the
#UkraineRussiaWar
. [1/6]
This hits close to home.
Today, we publish the story of our researcher in Gaza, Azmi Keshawi, through a recollection of voice messages he has sent us since 7 October.
Azmi’s family's struggle to survive Israel's onslaught should haunt us all.
As
#Ukraine
prepares for second winter of war and the counteroffensive advances slowly, I had good opportunity to reflect on what the future holds
@yes_ukraine
conference. Also somber walk in Kyiv center observing burnt Russian vehicles with our Ukraine analyst
@Simon_Schlegel_
An appropriate move in honour of the harrowing suffering facing
#Iran
's countless brave protestors - the schoolgirls and boys, women, men - fighting for a better future. Thank you 🙏🏾
BREAKING NEWS
The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided to award the 2023
#NobelPeacePrize
to Narges Mohammadi for her fight against the oppression of women in Iran and her fight to promote human rights and freedom for all.
#NobelPrize
Many around the globe experienced the past year as an annus horribilis, eagerly awaiting its conclusion. But as the list of
@CrisisGroup
10 conflicts to watch suggests, its long shadow will endure
#Ethiopia
has paid a catastrophic price in the course of its hard-fought war. Peace talks could help set country on path to reconstruction and avoid a metastasising conflict that would further destabilise the Horn of Africa’s key state. via
@crisisgroup
Congratulations to Philip Cox
@guardian
for his compelling and refreshing portrayal of protests in Sudan.
I was proud, on behalf of
@CrisisGroup
, to award The ‘Spiderman’ of Sudan as winner of this year’s
@PrixBayeux
Award long television format prize.
One of the crises keeping me up at night is the unravelling of
#Sudan
’s once-promising transition from a dictatorship.
This insightful episode with
@alanboswell
&
@KholoodKhair
shows just how hard the path away from October’s military coup is going to be.
In a region already in turmoil and instability: the message cannot be clearer of the need to raise awareness of the nexus between conflict and rapidly evolving climate stresses in a pivotal part of the continent
@mutigam
@nazaninemoshiri
@alanboswell
@UlrichJEberle
The Horn of Africa is experiencing one of the most severe droughts in recent history.
Nearly 14 million people now face high levels of hunger and severe water shortages across Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia.
We have a brief window to save lives and livelihoods.
In those countries & elsewhere in Africa, Russia has rebuilt old ties & at times fuelled hostility toward former colonial powers.
Animosity toward the French military in Mali has enabled Russia to position itself as an alternative security actor.
Untangling the relationship between gender and conflict is vital to better tackling deadly violence.
@CrisisGroup
we look at the role women play in conflicts and how they experience violence, whether as victims, fighters or peacemakers.
#IWD2023
📚 list:
War in
#Ethiopia
is the worst possible outcome of the tensions that have been brewing. Given
#Tigray
relatively strong security position, the conflict may well be protracted and disastrous says
@wdavison10
@CrisisGroup
I'm acutely aware that the emphasis in Western capitals on Ukraine leaves a sour taste in much of the rest of the world.
Yet, like it or not, the Ukraine war is playing an outsized role in world affairs.
My latest take for
@CrisisGroup
👇🏾
Two schoolgirls from Lagos, Nigeria, have invented a water purifying device which turns contaminated water into safe drinking water. The girls won the Stockholm Junior Water Prize Nigeria for their innovation which has gained global attention.
Sudanese are paying intolerable price for the generals who have pushed
#Sudan
into all-out war. They should not however suffer from uneven diplomacy. All outside parties need to upgrade their diplomacy, which has failed to rise to urgency of the moment
Kofi Annan was an inspiration. We need leaders of his moral and political calibre more than ever.
I am delighted that
@CrisisGroup
,
@ipinst
,
@KofiAnnanFdn
&
@OpenSociety
are launching an annual lecture series to advance his vision of global leadership.
As
#UNSC
votes on
#Ukraine
resolution today, the West should not be the only bloc sending messages to Moscow. The more that non-aligned countries can communicate to Moscow the reputational costs its aggression will incur, the better.
@CrisisGroup
Night falls in Europe, our
@CrisisGroup
US team take over, here's a line in our statement coming out that we prayed not to write: As tanks roll over European borders for the first time in decades it is tempting to look somewhere for hope. Today, sadly, that is in short supply.
I will be in Normandy this Saturday to announce the winner of the War Correspondents
@PrixBayeux
Grand Format Television Prize.
@CrisisGroup
is proud to sponsor this event & pay tribute to the vital work done by journalists covering conflicts around the 🌍
As PM Abiy announces military operation
@CrisisGroup
earlier warned that military force against a regional govt following ruling it overstepped constitutionally enshrined self-rule rights could further destabilise
#Ethiopia
’s fractious federation
As
#IranProtests
continue for a fourth week, the government's violent crackdown is only deepening the divide between a state that will not give in to demands for greater freedom, and a society that will not give up asking for them. Continued repression is not the answer.
“As war rages in
#Ukraine
, it is the first time that Germany has all three national security positions filled by women, putting them on the frontline of both a cultural and a strategic revolution in their country”
@LisaMusiol
🧵 1. Today, 15 April, marks a year since a power struggle between two branches of
#Sudan
’s armed forces exploded into full scale conflict.
It’s also 5 years, this month (11 April 2019), that Sudan’s brave people toppled the regime of long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir.
Immediate priorities to end nightmare millions of
#Sudanese
are living through must focus on achieving a humanitarian ceasefire over Eid al-Fitr and then getting aid into the country fast.
@CrisisGroup
I'm proud to announce that former Minister of Foreign Affairs & Minister of Defence for Norway, Ine Eriksen Søreide, has joined
@CrisisGroup
's Board of Trustees!
Her experience will be vital in helping us prevent, mitigate, & resolve deadly conflict.
Importantly, peace negotiations and humanitarian provision in other conflicts – from Ethiopia to Afghanistan – could also be compromised as policymakers focus all their efforts on Ukraine.
Delighted to announce that
@PierrePrakash
is starting in his new role as
@CrisisGroup
's Asia Program Director after joining the team in 2019.
This is fantastic news for our work in the region going into the new year.
Grateful that we will keep working together, Pierre!
So sad to read about Archbishop Desmond Tutu's passing. A true giant in the struggle against apartheid and strident defender of the voiceless who sought justice. Thank you for teaching many of us to do the same. via
@FT
I'm looking forward to briefing the
@UN
Security Council today at 10 am ET about counter-terrorism missions in Africa, at the invitation of
@ghanamissionun
.
At
@CrisisGroup
's semi-annual meeting with our Board of Trustees today.
Always a fantastic opportunity to reflect on our growth and what the future holds for our conflict prevention, mitigation and resolution efforts.
Great discussions all around. Thanks to all in attendance.