Director of 21st Century China Center and Ho Miu Lam Chair at GPS of UCSD. Expert of Chinese elite politics, economy, and finance. RT does not mean endorsement.
How do dictators maintain power for life? I explain in a new book that they can stay in power by forming "Coalitions of the Weak" composed of tainted or inexperienced officials. Not a loyalty-competence tradeoff but one of institutions vs patrimonialism
3. Chinese spox: Countries like Singapore, ROK took necessary measures & put the epidemics under control because they made full use of this precious time China bought for the world. As for whether US availed itself of this window, I believe the fact is witnessed by US &the world.
Dear
@Twitter
when we do a search on any Chinese city name in Chinese, this is what we get: ads and spams for prostitution and mistresses. Even these ads are probably not real, just govt bots trying to reduce news of China
Former Chinese leader Hu Jintao mysteriously escorted out of the Great Hall of the People ahead of an expected speech by President Xi at the end of the CCP's Party Congress
It is incredibly daunting to follow in the footsteps of
@SusanShirk1
who did so much for China studies, US policy toward China and for
@21CenturyChina
. I am grateful that my colleagues place so much trust in me.
Here is why this matters: If the Chinese government can order the HK police to stay clear while thugs beat people, it can also order HK police to stay clear while a billionaire is kidnapped
NOW IN
#HONGKONG
:
Hundreds of men in white tee have been spotted near
#YuenLong
train station tonight. They were seen hitting and going after all young people dressed in black (which suggests they went to today’s protest).
This video makes my heart break.
#HongKongProtests
If the
#US
has no intention to interfere, why is it so mad and afraid? The national security legislation is just like a security door to better protect the safety and freedom inside. Why would anyone be mad with others for installing a security door at their own home?
I honestly don’t understand what the big deal is. In political science, a “dictator” is simply a leader selected through undemocratic means who can dictate policy outcomes to a large extent in a country. Many leaders fit this definition and it’s by no means negative
Folks who believe this is just like a typical flu should watch this video of 2 minutes in a Wuhan Hospital. Warning: not for the faint of heart or children
Eh cat is out of the bag. Please visit our Chinese elite portal which allows you to subset and visualize over 1700 CCP elites (full, alt CC, prov stdcomm members) by gender, education, native place, alma mater
"Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui produced close to 40% of the 19th [Central Committee] elite. Meanwhile, Guangdong, …one of the wealthiest areas of China since 1978, produced only 13 political elite out of a cohort of over 1000."
@vshih2
With coauthors like
@YashengHuang
@fravel
and Lily Tsai, MIT writes a very well thought-out strategy for engaging with Chinese academic institutions. All major university systems should have a strategy like this:
Ok here is the great conundrum of official Chinese statistics. If they can suddenly add 15K new cases in Hubei in one day, who is to say they can’t add another 10K tomorrow in Hubei, or another 15K outside of Hubei next week. We need very detailed info on how they collect data
Our Chinese elite data portal has been updated and now include provincial standing committee and Central Committee elites from the 15th PC to the 19th PC. Also, their jobs at the time of congress has been included so you can visualize thousands of subsets
Well worth it to remind ourselves the payoff of China’s zero Covid strategy. Life continues in most places as pre Covid. The costs are high but the payoffs are enormous also. It’s like staring into a different world….
Come with me on a frenetic tour of Chongqing street food.
Watch the old man at the end flash me his QR code because he thinks my filming is actually me paying him.
In a new paper, Elkobi & I scrape the most comprehensive local govt & LGFV bond issuance data of 35K issuance and finds over 50 trillion RMB in local bonds outstanding. For 12 provinces, monthly debt servicing is > 100% of monthly revenue. For 15 provinces over 50% of revenue 1/2
“Zoom..appears to own three companies in China through which at least 700 employees are paid to develop Zoom’s software. “ so the other thing that is likely true is that the Zoom subs have CCP party committees. See
I am seeing many accounts of people in Wuhan getting rejected by hospitals and not getting treated despite severe symptoms. The WHO team needs to investigate this instead of going from one model hospital to another as arranged by the Chinese hosts
@k_sonin
So three main theories now. 1. He was sick (doesn’t look that way) 2. He tested positive for Covid (but results should’ve been out before start) 3. He was very displeased about the new central committee list and might have said something unpleasant to Xi (plausible for me)
Sorry I am genuinely pissed about this. China supposedly can censor everything on the internet. Yet the disgusting video of the heinous shooting in Buffalo can still be seen on
#wechat
. Not sure how widespread it is but I saw it in my group
It's very hard to assess the effectiveness and safety but we should address both Western medicine and traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), which have their own strengths in different cases, and
#TCM
works well: analysts
#COVID19
#BREAKING
League of Social Democrats leader
#ChanPoying
was taken away minutes after she showed up with a small candle for
#TiananmenMothers
and two yellow flowers. She resisted and tried to uphold what she had in hands.
So my class figured out today that even if all of China were to implement a 0.7% property tax (same as California), it would only pay for 1/4 of the local government debt servicing for the majority of the months this coming year…怎么办
Why are the regimes in Russia and Iran still in power despite years of sanctions? What's the prognosis for China as growth slows down? Get insights from the top experts in the newly published book "Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability"
didn’t know this but apparently at the G20, Xi called on more countries to join China’s health code system on their phones😂😂 “中方提出建立基于核酸检测结果、以国际通行二维码为形式的健康码国际互认机制,希望更多国家参与。”
You want to hear something scary? Chinese FIs (incl. HK) have borrowed 1.5 trillion dollars from the rest of the world, and you wonder who is financing OBOR. The answer is all of us!
For those who think that Chinese citizens have a lot of money, here is a study that shows that 73% of people made less than 550 dollars a month in 2018
UW Medicine halts use of coronavirus testing kits airlifted from China after some had contamination – The Seattle Times / the usual quality control issue
via
@NYTimes
“A new survey of more than 20,000 people, mostly female between 18 and 31, found that two-thirds of them didn’t want to have children” shocking for a mid income country. Leaders should reflect on why
China is falling into a “balance-sheet recession," according to the economist who coined the phrase to explain Japan’s descent into stagnation in the 1990s
Why have moderate China watchers turned against China? The party executed a Nobel peace prize winner by denying him medical attention and set up concentration camps for Chinese citizens!
"This one man rule... is going to generate uncertainties."
Here's
@vshih2
on the future of power in
#China
with
#Xi
Jinping firmly in control.
We also discuss the
#Hu
Jintao incident as well as the lack of women in the Politburo and what it means for
#genderequality
in China.
Chinese leaders and academics have studied intensely the Gorbachev to avoid his mistakes. They should, however, be studying the Brezhnev era: economic stagnation at home; overreach abroad.
My students showed me this Hua Chunying bot on github which automatically generates MFA praise or condemnation of other countries' actions. It's pretty awesome
Bankers Forced to Study Xi’s Thoughts as Party Tightens Grip /some bankers are spending 1/3 of their time on this? And you wonder why banks are not helping the economy….
To those who say engagement is over:what does that even mean when bilateral trade is close to a trillion dollars and tens of millions of Americans spend the best part of their days on a Chinese social media platform? There is a high level of engagement, just not between officials
Here is why mass testing is urgent in the US. Hospital will have to treat the 10-20% of infected needing intensive care. Pretending it’s not a problem will not get around that, so it’s much better to get a handle on the extent of infection and adequately prepare for it
The head of the Lombardy's intensive care crisis unit says the health system is on the brink of collapse, intensive care being set up in hallways. By March 26 they predict ~18,000
#Covid19
cases in Lombardy, of which ~3,000 will need intensive care.
A master class by Xu Chenggang with
@LiYuan6
. Prof Xu proposed the hypothesis that zero Covid was a negative shock to investors and consumers willingness to invest/ spend. This actually can be tested with data!
The dream of democracy in Hong Kong, seeded by Martin Lee and others and kept alive by successive generations, is crashing around them. / unflinching look, hurts so much to read, but a must read
Patriotic heart still beats in
#HongKong
: Dozens of patriotic Chinese raised the Chinese national flag and sang the national anthem at Victoria Harbor early Sunday morning. #香港
Most folks in my wechat groups of educated professionals believe arrest of Huawei exec Meng Wanzhou crosses a line, makes good point that any exec of companies selling weapons to Taiwan would be breaking Chinese law
China Set to Overhaul Financial System Giving Xi More Control / the man who borrowed hundreds of billions to build a ghost city will be directly in charge of the central bank? 🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️
I now have confirmation that
@tencent
has instituted a global ban of
@NewYorker
and
@IChotiner
‘s interview of me on wechat. No wechat user anywhere can read it.
On Christmas Eve I brought snacks to our CDC staff to say thank you. Without them, medical crew, and more than 450k Taiwanese who went through quarantine, we would not have made it this year. Let’s enjoy tonight, follow safety guidelines, and keep protecting each other.
The gunman who allegedly opened fire at a Laguna Woods church Sunday appeared to be motivated by political hatred directed at the Taiwanese community, Orange County Sheriff’s officials said.
The suspect was identified as a 68-year-old Las Vegas man.
Yeah I showed this to some colleagues in China (on zoom of course) and they were shocked. I was shocked when I saw this. The notion that Ukraine will distract the US from China is not happening
Wow just witnessed a case where a US academic withdrew a paper on China from consideration at a top US journal due to “political sensitivity”. I wonder what the back story is....
reason why the Chinese stock market hasn’t performed well is not b/c the regulators have been inept or some financial cabal has shorted the market but because net income of listed companies has fallen and is not expected to rise. Firing regulators won’t help (graph from Kroll)
My colleague pointed out to me this interesting new paper on the "private" sector in China, finds that the majority of private firms are within two steps of major SOEs https:/faculty.chicagobooth.edu/-/media/faculty/chang-tai-hsieh/research/special-deal-special-investors.pdf
Very excited to read this tour de force written by the top political economists of China Tsai, Pearson, Rithmire . And it’s a free download from
@CambridgeUP
Hey was just notified that paper version of my new book "Coalitions of the Weak" will ship early June (thank you for those of you who ordered); Kindle version available now. For Chinese history buffs, the book answers a few key questions : (cont'd)
3) for any "foreign force" - let's assume there is any (based on my instinct), the bar is low, the target limited, the expectatio modest: anything it want to achieve is to have anything to occur at all, and wish some ripple effect therefrom. that is pretty much all about it.
Russian President Vladimir
#Putin
and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip
#Erdogan
held a phone call on Saturday over the latest situation in
#Russia
, Russian media reported.
By far the most important panel on the domestic PE of China featuring Scott Rozelle,
@MaryGao
, my GW advisor Marty Whyte,
@melovely_max
2/3 of Chinese workers are condemned to subsistence wages in the gig economy and can never be middle class earners
Hard to believe that
@bumingbaipod
has only been around for 1 year. It has had such a massive impact on the Chinese speaking world and has made us all smarter. Thank you
@LiYuan6
!!