Victor Shih Profile
Victor Shih

@vshih2

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Director of 21st Century China Center and Ho Miu Lam Chair at GPS of UCSD. Expert of Chinese elite politics, economy, and finance. RT does not mean endorsement.

Seattle, WA
Joined August 2009
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
How do dictators maintain power for life? I explain in a new book that they can stay in power by forming "Coalitions of the Weak" composed of tainted or inexperienced officials. Not a loyalty-competence tradeoff but one of institutions vs patrimonialism
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
This really is bizarre gear. Is this policeman very afraid of being identified? If so why?
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
China did not buy the world any time. As Comrade Zhou Xianwang pointed out on CCTV, 5 million people left Hubei before January 22nd
@zlj517
Lijian Zhao 赵立坚
4 years
3. Chinese spox: Countries like Singapore, ROK took necessary measures & put the epidemics under control because they made full use of this precious time China bought for the world. As for whether US availed itself of this window, I believe the fact is witnessed by US &the world.
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
Dear @Twitter when we do a search on any Chinese city name in Chinese, this is what we get: ads and spams for prostitution and mistresses. Even these ads are probably not real, just govt bots trying to reduce news of China
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
This is simply astonishing
@OliverHotham
Oliver Hotham
2 years
Former Chinese leader Hu Jintao mysteriously escorted out of the Great Hall of the People ahead of an expected speech by President Xi at the end of the CCP's Party Congress
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
1 year
It is incredibly daunting to follow in the footsteps of @SusanShirk1 who did so much for China studies, US policy toward China and for @21CenturyChina . I am grateful that my colleagues place so much trust in me.
@christineeclark
Christine Clark
1 year
Congratulations to @vshih2 who has been named the new director of @21CenturyChina at @GPS_UCSD . “We are proud of the impressive trajectory of @21CenturyChina under the transformative leadership of @SusanShirk1 ," said @UCSanDiego Chancellor Khosla.
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
1 year
Love this one from wechat
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
Horrific picture tallying the number of infected and suspected infected medical staff in various hospitals in Wuhan. They are the heroes
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
5 years
I tweet this only because that’s genuinely how the party wants the world to be. Thus I don’t think this image is derogatory at all
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
Authoritarian regime not needed
@Wenyee_Lee
Wen-Yee Lee 李玟儀
4 years
Zero #Covid19 case over the past 10 days. This is what life in #Taiwan looks like. 😘
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
5 years
Here is why this matters: If the Chinese government can order the HK police to stay clear while thugs beat people, it can also order HK police to stay clear while a billionaire is kidnapped
@kinlinglo
Kinling Lo 盧建靈
5 years
NOW IN #HONGKONG : Hundreds of men in white tee have been spotted near #YuenLong train station tonight. They were seen hitting and going after all young people dressed in black (which suggests they went to today’s protest). This video makes my heart break. #HongKongProtests
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
1 year
This university by the way is where the “party consciousness” is the strongest
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
5 years
As you consider summer camps for kids, let’s keep in mind the “little intelligence officer” camp in China
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
5 years
The latest fake news from the party propaganda machine about HK. It’s sooo fake but people believe it
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
Why would China mind that the US is treating HK like the rest of China?
@SpokespersonCHN
Hua Chunying 华春莹
4 years
If the #US has no intention to interfere, why is it so mad and afraid? The national security legislation is just like a security door to better protect the safety and freedom inside. Why would anyone be mad with others for installing a security door at their own home?
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
China says it will ‘strictly limit’ citizens from going abroad | Financial Times /wow what about students who want to study abroad????
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
11 months
I honestly don’t understand what the big deal is. In political science, a “dictator” is simply a leader selected through undemocratic means who can dictate policy outcomes to a large extent in a country. Many leaders fit this definition and it’s by no means negative
@Reuters
Reuters
11 months
New Zealand PM disagrees with Biden, says Xi Jinping not a 'dictator'
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
Folks who believe this is just like a typical flu should watch this video of 2 minutes in a Wuhan Hospital. Warning: not for the faint of heart or children
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
Eh cat is out of the bag. Please visit our Chinese elite portal which allows you to subset and visualize over 1700 CCP elites (full, alt CC, prov stdcomm members) by gender, education, native place, alma mater
@JChengWSJ
Jonathan Cheng
4 years
"Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui produced close to 40% of the 19th [Central Committee] elite. Meanwhile, Guangdong, …one of the wealthiest areas of China since 1978, produced only 13 political elite out of a cohort of over 1000." @vshih2
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
With coauthors like @YashengHuang @fravel and Lily Tsai, MIT writes a very well thought-out strategy for engaging with Chinese academic institutions. All major university systems should have a strategy like this:
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
Ok here is the great conundrum of official Chinese statistics. If they can suddenly add 15K new cases in Hubei in one day, who is to say they can’t add another 10K tomorrow in Hubei, or another 15K outside of Hubei next week. We need very detailed info on how they collect data
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
Our Chinese elite data portal has been updated and now include provincial standing committee and Central Committee elites from the 15th PC to the 19th PC. Also, their jobs at the time of congress has been included so you can visualize thousands of subsets
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
Well worth it to remind ourselves the payoff of China’s zero Covid strategy. Life continues in most places as pre Covid. The costs are high but the payoffs are enormous also. It’s like staring into a different world….
@luoshanji
Tanner Brown
2 years
Come with me on a frenetic tour of Chongqing street food. Watch the old man at the end flash me his QR code because he thinks my filming is actually me paying him.
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
6 months
In a new paper, Elkobi & I scrape the most comprehensive local govt & LGFV bond issuance data of 35K issuance and finds over 50 trillion RMB in local bonds outstanding. For 12 provinces, monthly debt servicing is > 100% of monthly revenue. For 15 provinces over 50% of revenue 1/2
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
“Zoom..appears to own three companies in China through which at least 700 employees are paid to develop Zoom’s software. “ so the other thing that is likely true is that the Zoom subs have CCP party committees. See
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
6 years
The brave few
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
I am seeing many accounts of people in Wuhan getting rejected by hospitals and not getting treated despite severe symptoms. The WHO team needs to investigate this instead of going from one model hospital to another as arranged by the Chinese hosts
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
@k_sonin So three main theories now. 1. He was sick (doesn’t look that way) 2. He tested positive for Covid (but results should’ve been out before start) 3. He was very displeased about the new central committee list and might have said something unpleasant to Xi (plausible for me)
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
Great scoop by ⁦ @Lingling_Wei ⁩ and the circled quote below should be the first principle for investors as they invest in China
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
Sorry I am genuinely pissed about this. China supposedly can censor everything on the internet. Yet the disgusting video of the heinous shooting in Buffalo can still be seen on #wechat . Not sure how widespread it is but I saw it in my group
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
It’s not hard; it’s called double blind randomized trials
@globaltimesnews
Global Times
4 years
It's very hard to assess the effectiveness and safety but we should address both Western medicine and traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), which have their own strengths in different cases, and #TCM works well: analysts #COVID19
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
I actually think he looks quite nice in this color and Peng positively glows. Is that a cross in the middle of his belly?
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
1 year
Ten cops gang up on a single person holding a yellow flower.
@XinqiSu
Xinqi Su 蘇昕琪
1 year
#BREAKING League of Social Democrats leader #ChanPoying was taken away minutes after she showed up with a small candle for #TiananmenMothers and two yellow flowers. She resisted and tried to uphold what she had in hands.
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
6 years
This was the most circulated photo of the US-China trade talk in China today
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
1 year
So my class figured out today that even if all of China were to implement a 0.7% property tax (same as California), it would only pay for 1/4 of the local government debt servicing for the majority of the months this coming year…怎么办
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
Why are the regimes in Russia and Iran still in power despite years of sanctions? What's the prognosis for China as growth slows down? Get insights from the top experts in the newly published book "Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability"
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
9 months
Wow long time China watcher Willy Lam has a new book on Xi. I will have to get it and read
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
1 year
didn’t know this but apparently at the G20, Xi called on more countries to join China’s health code system on their phones😂😂 “中方提出建立基于核酸检测结果、以国际通行二维码为形式的健康码国际互认机制,希望更多国家参与。”
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
6 years
You want to hear something scary? Chinese FIs (incl. HK) have borrowed 1.5 trillion dollars from the rest of the world, and you wonder who is financing OBOR. The answer is all of us!
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
For those who think that Chinese citizens have a lot of money, here is a study that shows that 73% of people made less than 550 dollars a month in 2018
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
3 years
Anyone who says people of China cannot govern themselves is lying
@nixzhu
NIX
3 years
今天适合发这个视频吗?
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
6 years
That’s a really random sign
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
UW Medicine halts use of coronavirus testing kits airlifted from China after some had contamination – The Seattle Times / the usual quality control issue
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
3 years
This is an actual book
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
via @NYTimes “A new survey of more than 20,000 people, mostly female between 18 and 31, found that two-thirds of them didn’t want to have children” shocking for a mid income country. Leaders should reflect on why
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
11 months
Who is the guy wearing sun glasses indoors?
@iainmarlow
Iain Marlow
11 months
US delegation across the table from Chinese 😎
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
5 years
this from wechat, wow
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
It seems local fiscal troubles in China are getting quite serious. It’s not an issue of default but lack of funds for normal operations and wages
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
Saw this on wechat, it’s pretty extreme if true
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
3 years
the local fiscal situation in much of China is so much more messed up than even I could imagine....really wonder what's the end game....
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
The world would love to take a close look
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
If massive scale food distribution doesn’t happen soon in Shanghai, law and order may not hold. Hunger is 底线
@TuCaoFakeNews
新闻/真话
2 years
实在太饿了,上海一男子想开车出去买菜,结果被警察拦住,他与警察争吵起来,意想不到的是,小区所有的居民其实都在盯着这场冲突,他们一起高喊给男子助威,因为他们也和男子一样饿
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
11 months
Chinese economists have studied the Japan case for years and now their fear has become reality
@business
Bloomberg
11 months
China is falling into a “balance-sheet recession," according to the economist who coined the phrase to explain Japan’s descent into stagnation in the 1990s
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
5 years
Why have moderate China watchers turned against China? The party executed a Nobel peace prize winner by denying him medical attention and set up concentration camps for Chinese citizens!
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
Still three to four months away from @CUP_PoliSci , but it is starting to feel real!
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
5 years
Wow, HK #HKprotests signs appearing in Seattle
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
Thank you for having me @klustout and for highlighting my book at the beginning!
@klustout
Kristie Lu Stout✌🏽
2 years
"This one man rule... is going to generate uncertainties." Here's @vshih2 on the future of power in #China with #Xi Jinping firmly in control. We also discuss the #Hu Jintao incident as well as the lack of women in the Politburo and what it means for #genderequality in China.
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
Yes I wholeheartedly agree with this
@McFaul
Michael McFaul
2 years
Chinese leaders and academics have studied intensely the Gorbachev to avoid his mistakes. They should, however, be studying the Brezhnev era: economic stagnation at home; overreach abroad.
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
3 years
My students showed me this Hua Chunying bot on github which automatically generates MFA praise or condemnation of other countries' actions. It's pretty awesome
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
10 months
Bankers Forced to Study Xi’s Thoughts as Party Tightens Grip /some bankers are spending 1/3 of their time on this? And you wonder why banks are not helping the economy….
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
I knew I was ahead of the pack back in 1996
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
1 year
To those who say engagement is over:what does that even mean when bilateral trade is close to a trillion dollars and tens of millions of Americans spend the best part of their days on a Chinese social media platform? There is a high level of engagement, just not between officials
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
Here is why mass testing is urgent in the US. Hospital will have to treat the 10-20% of infected needing intensive care. Pretending it’s not a problem will not get around that, so it’s much better to get a handle on the extent of infection and adequately prepare for it
@RachelDonadio
Rachel Donadio
4 years
The head of the Lombardy's intensive care crisis unit says the health system is on the brink of collapse, intensive care being set up in hallways. By March 26 they predict ~18,000 #Covid19 cases in Lombardy, of which ~3,000 will need intensive care.
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
9 months
A master class by Xu Chenggang with ⁦ @LiYuan6 ⁩ . Prof Xu proposed the hypothesis that zero Covid was a negative shock to investors and consumers willingness to invest/ spend. This actually can be tested with data!
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
1 year
“中国这么大,不同人会有不同诉求,对同一件事也会有不同看法,这很正常,要通过沟通协商凝聚共识。” 还有要通过喝茶等达到共识
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
Look what I found in my closet!! I don’t think I ever wore it
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
YOY revenue comparison in April among top cities in Jiangsu, just read the right column
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
The dream of democracy in Hong Kong, seeded by Martin Lee and others and kept alive by successive generations, is crashing around them. / unflinching look, hurts so much to read, but a must read
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
5 years
This is touching, but isn't this level of support just a tad low in a city of 7 million people?
@globaltimesnews
Global Times
5 years
Patriotic heart still beats in #HongKong : Dozens of patriotic Chinese raised the Chinese national flag and sang the national anthem at Victoria Harbor early Sunday morning. #香港
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
5 years
Most folks in my wechat groups of educated professionals believe arrest of Huawei exec Meng Wanzhou crosses a line, makes good point that any exec of companies selling weapons to Taiwan would be breaking Chinese law
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
1 year
China Set to Overhaul Financial System Giving Xi More Control / the man who borrowed hundreds of billions to build a ghost city will be directly in charge of the central bank? 🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
8 months
If you, like me, missed this awesome IMF paper on China's government balance sheet, read it now
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
5 years
I now have confirmation that @tencent has instituted a global ban of @NewYorker and @IChotiner ‘s interview of me on wechat. No wechat user anywhere can read it.
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
1 year
感谢 @LiYuan6 老师的邀请,刚看到财政部最新的数据 “全国发行新增地方政府债券47566亿元,其中…全国发行再融资债券26110亿元” 这意味新发债券其中一半以上是为了借新还旧
@LiYuan6
Li Yuan袁莉
1 year
今年是中国经济特别关键的一年,不明白播客会做一系列关于中国经济的专题节目,这是第一期。地方债听起来可能有点枯燥,却是可能会影响每个中国人的问题。我问了 @vshih2 教授中国普通人为什么要关心地方债问题,地方政府财政困难是否会对中国的政治稳定造成影响,以及地方债问题最后可能会如何收场。
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
When Bank of China predicts 3.5% growth, things are not going well
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
3 years
Taiwan is a shining example of public health management in a democracy
@ChingteLai
賴清德Lai Ching-te
3 years
On Christmas Eve I brought snacks to our CDC staff to say thank you. Without them, medical crew, and more than 450k Taiwanese who went through quarantine, we would not have made it this year. Let’s enjoy tonight, follow safety guidelines, and keep protecting each other.
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
It’s time to have a conversation about hate speech on wechat, just as we have done on hate speech in other social media platforms
@latimes
Los Angeles Times
2 years
The gunman who allegedly opened fire at a Laguna Woods church Sunday appeared to be motivated by political hatred directed at the Taiwanese community, Orange County Sheriff’s officials said. The suspect was identified as a 68-year-old Las Vegas man.
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
1 year
Wait this is him voting, not announcing the results, so why clap?
@ABCChinese
ABC中文
1 year
#习近平 北京时间今天上午9时,第十四届中国全国人大一次会议第三次全体会议将选举国家主席、中央军委主席、全国人大委员长和国家副主席。中国领导人习近平走上主席台投票。
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
Yeah I showed this to some colleagues in China (on zoom of course) and they were shocked. I was shocked when I saw this. The notion that Ukraine will distract the US from China is not happening
@fravel
M. Taylor Fravel
2 years
New Pew polling on US views of China..negative views continue to grow
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
3 years
I can't contain my excitement that I found a website where Xi Jinping's essays are read out loud one by one, great for meditation.
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
7 years
Aight, my word count comparison of 18th and 19th PC opening speeches— not good
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
3 years
This is an important metric. The party is directly destroying the wealth of China’s fledging tech sector
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
4 years
Says the man who has parked much of his assets in the UK, US and Australia
@business
Bloomberg
4 years
Li Ka-shing, Hong Kong’s wealthiest tycoon, defends Hong Kong security law as China’s right
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
5 years
Wow just witnessed a case where a US academic withdrew a paper on China from consideration at a top US journal due to “political sensitivity”. I wonder what the back story is....
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
3 months
reason why the Chinese stock market hasn’t performed well is not b/c the regulators have been inept or some financial cabal has shorted the market but because net income of listed companies has fallen and is not expected to rise. Firing regulators won’t help (graph from Kroll)
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
3 years
My colleague pointed out to me this interesting new paper on the "private" sector in China, finds that the majority of private firms are within two steps of major SOEs https:/faculty.chicagobooth.edu/-/media/faculty/chang-tai-hsieh/research/special-deal-special-investors.pdf
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
1 year
Very excited to read this tour de force written by the top political economists of China Tsai, Pearson, Rithmire . And it’s a free download from @CambridgeUP
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
Hey was just notified that paper version of my new book "Coalitions of the Weak" will ship early June (thank you for those of you who ordered); Kindle version available now. For Chinese history buffs, the book answers a few key questions : (cont'd)
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
1 month
What the..? These have appeared all over Southern California. This of course is the media that denies anything went wrong on January 6th
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
1 year
Dear Comrade Harvard graduate, there are so few foreigners left in China. What is the source of “foreign influence” besides Marx and Engel of course?
@ChairmanRabbit
兔主席
1 year
3) for any "foreign force" - let's assume there is any (based on my instinct), the bar is low, the target limited, the expectatio modest: anything it want to achieve is to have anything to occur at all, and wish some ripple effect therefrom. that is pretty much all about it.
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
11 months
I am sure Putin has tried calling Xi by now. Did Xi take the call? Why hasn’t there been a Chinese announcement of unwavering support?
@CGTNOfficial
CGTN
11 months
Russian President Vladimir #Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip #Erdogan held a phone call on Saturday over the latest situation in #Russia , Russian media reported.
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
This picture says so much
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
6 months
Wow this is pretty shocking from a very established authority on macroeconomics in China
@whyyoutouzhele
李老师不是你老师
6 months
“我不知道” 11月22日,在北京举行的《财经》年会2024:预测与战略现场,主持人提问中国社科院委员,金融专家李扬,当前中国经济的种种问题咱们的文件上也有,问题也都看到了,为什么具体落实和执行就那么难? 李扬笑着回答:我不知道。 然后匆匆下场
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
2 years
By far the most important panel on the domestic PE of China featuring Scott Rozelle, @MaryGao , my GW advisor Marty Whyte, @melovely_max 2/3 of Chinese workers are condemned to subsistence wages in the gig economy and can never be middle class earners
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@vshih2
Victor Shih
11 months
Hard to believe that ⁦ @bumingbaipod ⁩ has only been around for 1 year. It has had such a massive impact on the Chinese speaking world and has made us all smarter. Thank you ⁦ @LiYuan6 ⁩ !!
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