1/ Blobs unlock unprecedented scaling for L2s, but have huge gas spikes and price volatility. They lack financialization like hedging and fractionalization.
I've just quit my job at Apple to build blobspace derivatives & contribute to the ETH ecosystem:
Who will take the sell side of a blobspace derivatives market, and how can we limit their risk?
In this post, I solve for payoff bounds and demonstrate how we can make conditions more favorable for sellers:
2/ The Dencun upgrade enabled record-high usage and 10x lower fees for L2s with blobs.
However, 10,000%+ gas spikes via Inscriptions soon highlighted their price volatility during high network demand. Future congestion events threaten more unpredictable costs for rollups.
5/ So far, the biggest challenges to me are: (1) the burned base fee making the derivative unsuitable for the natural seller (validators), (2) enabling physical delivery, and (3) protecting against manipulation.
Some more reading on this here:
4/ Typically, gas markets suffer from lack of a natural seller. In this case, speculators in the community have long argued that the price for blobs should go down over time as bandwidth scales.
I expect that the market will be primarily speculators collecting premiums to start
3/ Blobspace derivatives aim to hedge against these volatility challenges.
Similarly to trading of commodities futures, establishing derivatives markets for blob gas fees creates strategic trading opportunities for rollups (who pay premiums to de-risk their operational costs)
It's possible that the best counterparty/seller for blobspace derivatives is an insurance fund facilitated by the protocol. The insurance fund might source its initial capital via a token sale. Would love to get the community's thoughts on this.
@Melt_Dem
@alkimiya_io
Thank you!
@Melt_Dem
I see rollups/L2s as the natural buyer in this type of market, as they can hedge their costs while posting to blobs
@hasufl
Blockspace != blobspace
Blobspace is anticipated to increase capacity over the coming years + EF/others regularly argue that DA will not be the bottleneck, and it will be cheap. This leads me to believe there is more speculative short interest in blobspace than blockspace
@nickwh8te
I actually think generally cheap blobspace with occasional spikes is totally conducive to blobspace hedging, since you want to protect against those occasional spikes. Ofc the optimal situation is highly volatile blobspace prices but the seller premium will be way too high
@hasufl
If blobspace is generally cheap but has occasional spikes, that's exactly the reason to hedge it. It's to avoid those brief periods of volatility. Blobs are expensive right now, and they're anticipated to be cheap, so therefore people should sell at this price
@WestieCapital
It could be interesting to bound the risk for sellers, or maybe the volatility is a feature here. People love trading volatile commodities. I'm also exploring whether selling should be incentivized
@jackchong_jc
The post shows that the max downside risk for sellers is bounded and configurable, so there is a rational price to sell for this construction. It might be difficult for speculators to stomach, but that's why an insurance fund might be optimal
@0xBalloonLover
Maybe! Seems like both Optimism and Arbitrum have been open to integrations with other protocols, and the most efficient market for this involves consolidating around a single protocol
@rjvir
Depends what the “competition” is here. You can spin up a GPTAgent with another framework that performs better than ReAct
But yes agree with your second point