For every MSM article, every pundit every Harris lead poll this is the touchstone.
"Harris has the entire Democratic Party, entire Dem establishment, almost all of the media backing her up. For them, she's the whole game. They will not let her fail if success is at all possible.
On the way to Erie, Pennsylvania.
Yes, we have Trump 2024 signs & eclipse glasses.
This is the most prepared we’ve ever been for a voter registration event.
The Boston Globe report further commented about the "big turnout helping the two local GOP specials"
And again, when Trump is on the ballot it helps the down ballot as only he can get the turnout from unlikely voters
Things you won't see in MSM and from GOP establishment
#1
. Trump has gone from +20.4 Unfavorable to +4.6 a massive 15.8 point gain since 1/27/21. Buyers remorse
Baris: “Our polling shows that If Trump is not on the ballot Indiana is gone North Carolina gone, Florida and Missouri are right on the line”
Basically future elections would be some combination of 2008/12 & GOP a presidential minority part in near perpetuity given demographics
@Redistrict
Here's the background on this historic win. Demographics are destiny except not in the way the Dems thought;
"Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) is warning his party of a "self-inflicted tragedy" in the making among Latino voters.
17%-there you go:
Trump's support has improved among voters of color. .
Most Black voters feel Trump is trying to earn Black support. Black voters make up nearly a third of Georgia's electorate, and 17% of them today are picking Trump over Mr. Biden
Democracy Institute Patrick Basham's final poll. Predicted Trump win on 2016. Like Big Data Poll not carried by RCP/538
"GOP 51% to 46% +5 ahead of Dems in House minimum gain of 33 to 38 seats “probably gain” of 39 to 51 seats. Senate 53/54"
Black intention to vote for Trump:
Cygnal Feb 2-8 21%
Big Data Feb 2-14 21.7%
These are near exactly the same as my aggregate of 28 such subset of polls
Trump’s newly-established super PAC, known as MAGA Inc, has begun to book ad time in several key Senate races
AZ-Sen: $1 million (in cable ads)
GA-Sen: $750,000
NV-Sen: $127,000
OH-Sen: $1.34 million
PA-Sen: $829,000
The group’s Ohio commercial is online
So very bad;
"Fox’s Peter Doocy asked Psaki about Biden’s campaign claim that if he were in office, Putin’s days of tyranny and intimidating Eastern Europe would be over."
Since Trump commenced to solidify his lead in the head to head aggregate on 9/25 Biden has never been above 43.7%. Trump has led in every aggregate since 9/13, five straight months
My infallible predictions for 2022
1. Biden will not be president at end of the year.
2. President Harris will nominate Buttigieg for VP. He will struggle to get confirmed by House & Senate.
3. GOP will win both the House and Senate
4.Trump will announce he is running in 2024
Today is Trump's best day across the board ever:
Trump leads in Pennsylvania aggregate despite the January Susquehanna Biden +8 poll and all seven Battleground states
With PA assigned to Trump he leads in No Toss Up States 293 to 245
Trump +1 poll (consensus atpit) Blacks 27% at the high end: (but each time I say that a poll comes out higher than previous). We can be confident Trump is higher than his +12 in 2020
I still can't get over the assassination attempt, the miracle of the turned head miss, Trump's astounding presence of mind, and utter incompetence of the SS and their DEI hires. A lot to digest, a historic moment on many levels
Folks have been a bit down in the dumps following the MSM's hagiography of Harris, and losing the glow of being so far ahead of Biden. The interview is just the right medicine at just the right time, especially if she is starting to stall.
Nil desperandum
🚨BREAKING: Nebraska's unicameral legislature now has a filibuster proof Republican majority as Sen. Mike McDonnell switches parties from Dem to Rep.
This has massive implications for passing LB764, which would switch Nebraska to a winner-take-all electoral college state and
Didn't become billionaires via political acuity:
Wall Street’s top GOP donors are slowly realizing that former President Donald Trump is all-but-certain to clinch the presidential nomination.
Remarkable figures and show the sometimes painfully transitory nature of political stardom;
RCP Betting Odds Aggregate President:
1/3/23
DeSantis 35% Biden 28% Trump 14%
11/25/23
DeSantis 3% Biden 28% Trump 36%
Biden was at 41% in May
@yesh222
@JosephFordCotto
Indies again. If, as all polls show indies are deserting Dems in droves midterms will be slaughterhouse
"big factor expected to be independent voters. poll conducted by the University of North Florida that week showed independent voters are going for Howland by a 2 to 1 margin
@Redistrict
In the one D/R head to head in what was a 1-2 point GOP win in two previous elections GOP running away with the race.
Surely this is at least in large part a reaction to the Mar A largo raid
@Redistrict
@CookPolitical
Which is of course not the point regarding tonight's further confirmation of the historic shift by Hispanics (not Latinx) away from the Dems & the Electoral College implications for e.g. Georgia
If that is the case then he doesn't have to pony up any cash. Getting kicked of twitter & starting Truth Social may turn out to be the libs biggest error ever.
#BreakingNews
tonite (via Fox News)
DJT has been granted the necessary approvals to (in effect) pledge as loan collateral his estimated $3 Billion stock valuation in "Truth Social" (i.e. set to soon go public as part of a merger).
This will permit him to secure a bond loan.
Positivity:
"today’s polling suggests that Trump is poised to seize the largest margin of victory for a presidential candidate in Pennsylvania since Barack Obama’s eight-point win in 2008.
Underreported Polling Suggests Trump Is Poised to Win PA
I like what we are seeing from Trump on the campaign trail, he is hitting Harris hard but with a grin which comes off as he, rightly, can't take her seriously as a president. Then serious factoids and ending up with real fun showing complete confidence.
"The honeymoon will not last very long. Trump will succeed in painting Harris as out-of-touch San Francisco leftist, as Bush portrayed Dukakis Mass. liberal. Trump will find plenty of running room with that campaign, as there is hardly a left-wing cause that she has not embraced
ABC/WashPost Poll 2/24
Biden Approval 37% Disproval 55% -18
Previous -12 (41/53)
The Economy 37/58
D vs. R Congressional R+7 Likely Voters
Certain voters R +13
"Jury decides Trump must pay E. Jean Carroll more than $83 million in defamation trial"
These ridiculous court/lawfare cases may be hurting Trump financially but they are immensely helping him politically as the public can see the bias
Including Dems, who can't vote in the poll, pushing up Haley's numbers, was egregious at best. Many thanks to all those who spotted it and for this explanation. The MSM can't get away with it anymore-we are watching and know stuff.
Why Donald Trump Knew He Had to Run
Ben Carson says Donald Trump had everything, but he put all that on the line when he realized the country was going off the cliff.
Watch our full coverage of
@RealBenCarson
’s speech in Davenport, IA here:
Example:
“Among Michigan independent voters, 40% support Trump, 35% Biden, and 26% are undecided. When these independent undecided voters are pushed, their overall ballot test is split: 51% support Trump and 49% Biden,” Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson College Polling said
Perfect example of why reporting results with leaners is debated among pollsters. Without leaners, you can see how Moreno could've surged at the last minute.
But with leaners, as least how they leaned, it gave the perception it was closer than it was.
FYI, it was not close.
Rove theorized that Trump would win the Iowa caucus "by an unconvincing margin," Last year, he predicted that Trump's polling numbers would drop among Republicans. To his, and many others', disbelief, they rose.
Karl Rove admits Trump will win in 2024
RCP on to it now :
"Reapportionment following last census will allocate 3 additional electoral votes to states Trump won 2 more to Texas 1to Florida – and three fewer to the states Biden won. This will make Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes slightly easier to navigate."
Solid analysis. Not enough is being said about how the census changed the Electoral College, making it mathematically "easier" for Donald Trump to win in 2024 than in 2020.
The Dems seriously P'off RFK with Lawfare-it may well prove a costly mistake. RFK was hurting Trump/swung states to Harris in WI AZ MI PA (big time) Helped Trump in NC NV GA
Bobby Kennedy plans to drop out of the presidential race and endorse Donald Trump, sources tell me and
@AaronKatersky
"I will not confirm or deny that," Kennedy just told me, adding this about
@VP
Harris and the Dem Convention:
"I think it was a coronation, it's not democracy"
Trump 40% with Hispanics is the exact number GW Bush received in 2004 when he won with the exact same Electoral College margin Trump is currently leading with
Youngkin is rolling up huge margins in rural VA, making a lot of headway in outer suburbs and doing better than I'd have expected among in-person early voters. He's in the driver's seat right now.
#VAGOV
LOL Baris to be accused of polling too low:
But "So how plausible is this, what to make of it?" <(!)
"Across 5 high-quality polls month, Trump is averaging 20 percent of Black voters and 42 percent of Hispanic voters
NY Times ask a worried question.
"Share of Democratic Registrations Is Declining, but What Does It Mean?
Virtually every group of voters under 70 has become less likely to register as Democrats compared with Republicans since 2019.
Dear
@pizzahut
the response (so far) to this simple tweet from an ordinary person may give you pause for thought:
Impressions 383,000
Engagements 21,685
Likes 2,430
Retweets 837
Comments 1,006
Detail expands 5,312
Profile visits 2,803
Link clicks 9,100
First time I have seen endless positive Tweets on Trump trending. GOP have woken up, let's hope they stay on track in future
Politics · Trending
President Trump
628K posts
Perhaps it is my imagination, but it appears to me the new, "restrained" policy directed Trump is morphing into the Gipper. There's an aura of a new dignity/gravitas
MSM/Twitter have dropped the Carroll award like a hot potato. The ridiculous award $ and perceived Dem bias has turned from a crowing moment to a Dem embarrassment and confirmation of "Lawfare"
Monster numbers. Dems are done and dusted in FL
74% in
Primaries:
Rick Scott * 950,361 84.4%
Tot. GOP 1,125,900
Debbie Mucarsel-PowellDEM583,560
69.5% TOT. DEM 839,444
Dems in freefall everywhere;
GOP congressional candidates currently hold largest lead in midterm election preferences in ABC News/Washington Post polls dating back 40 years,
AZ, FL, GA, NC, NH, NV, PA, WI
Republicans 58% (+23)
Democrats 35
Speaking of people with such inclinations:
@pbump
Philip Bump (Now sadly balding) WashPost
"For years, Rasmussen’s results have been more favorable for Republican candidates and issues."
Now do Quinnipiac the worst performing, most inaccurate bias to Dems poll.